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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of MSL/MEDLI Entry Data with Coupled CFD and Material Response

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) was protected during its atmospheric entry by an instrumented heatshield using NASA's Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) material [1]. PICA is a lightweight carbon fiber/polymeric resin material that offers outstanding performances for protecting probes during planetary entry. The Mars Entry Descent and Landing Instrument (MEDLI) suite on MSL offers unique in-flight validation data for models of material response and atmospheric entry. MEDLI recorded, among other things, time-resolved in-depth temperature data of PICA using thermocouple sensors assembled in the MEDLI Integrated Sensor Plugs (MISP) [2]. The objective of this work is to showcase and analyze the coupling between the material response and the aerothermal environment. As shown in Figure 1, the workflow is divided into the following steps. First, the aerothermal properties are computed in the Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) code [3] and used with the Nonequilibrium air radiation (NEQAIR) program [8] to compute radiative heating. Second, the thermal response inside the material is computed in the Porous material Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM (PATO) [4,5,6] using a fixed blowing correction parameter. Third, the pyrolysis gases computed in PATO are used as inputs to a blowing boundary condition within DPLR. Fourth, the new environment properties from DPLR are used in NEQAIR to provide an updated solution, then both the updated aerothermal environment and radiative heating are used in PATO without blowing correction. The third and fourth steps are then repeated until convergence in surface temperature is obtained. Convergence in the radiative heating is generally achieved before surface temperature, at which point the radiative heating is no longer updated. Char mass loss rates are forced to zero to produce a non-receding surface condition. For early time points in the trajectory, where flow around the MSL aeroshell is rarefied, the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) code, SPARTA [7], is used to compute the aerothermal environment. Iteration between PATO and SPARTA is not performed due to the computational cost of DSMC simulations. Preliminary results of the coupling between PATO and DPLR for the MSL heatshield atmospheric entry model are presented in Figures 2-4 at 65 seconds after entry interface. Figure 2 shows the surface temperature results from an uncoupled simulation in PATO with the blowing correction parameter applied (left) along with the coupled surface temperature after iteration (right). Figure 3 shows the surface temperature along the centerline from windward to leeward for easier comparison. Figure 4 shows the coupled and uncoupled pyrolysis gas blowing rate. Mars 2020 used a similar heatshield consisting of PICA for thermal protection during entry, descent, and landing. In preparation for Mars 2020 post-flight analysis, the predictive material response capability is benchmarked against flight data from MEDLI. This work represents an important milestone toward the development of validated predictive capabilities for designing thermal protection systems for planetary probes.

Thermal Protection Systems↗
NASA NTRS1975

NASA plans for future earth resources missions

Development activities underway to improve LANDSAT sensors and observing systems are reported. Data cover high resolution imagery of surface temperatures for improving crop and other vegetation and soil classifications, and heat capacity mapping for recording surface temperatures at hours of maximum and minimum heating. Automatic identification and classification methods designed to extract information such as crop and forage acreages, amounts of water run-off, and types of land use directly from the satellite observations were also studied. A number of applications verification tests were conducted, particularly in the areas of crop and land use inventory and water run-off prediction, to demonstrate the direct transfer of space acquired information to end users.

Nordberg, W.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Atlas of Seasonal Means Simulated by the NSIPP 1 Atmospheric GCM

This atlas documents the climate characteristics of version 1 of the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). The AGCM includes an interactive land model (the Mosaic scheme), and is part of the NSIPP coupled atmosphere-land-ocean model. The results presented here are based on a 20-year (December 1979-November 1999) "ANIIP-style" integration of the AGCM in which the monthly-mean sea-surface temperature and sea ice are specified from observations. The climate characteristics of the AGCM are compared with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) reanalyses. Other verification data include Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSNM) total precipitable water, the Xie-Arkin estimates of precipitation, and Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) measurements of short and long wave radiation. The atlas is organized by season. The basic quantities include seasonal mean global maps and zonal and vertical averages of circulation, variance/covariance statistics, and selected physics quantities.

Suarez, Max J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

A Survey of Alternative Oxygen Production Technologies

Utilization of the Martian atmosphere for the production of fuel and oxygen has been extensively studied. The baseline fuel production process is a Sabatier reactor, which produces methane and water from carbon dioxide and hydrogen. The oxygen produced from the electrolysis of the water is only half of that needed for methane-based rocket propellant, and additional oxygen is needed for breathing air, fuel cells and other energy sources. Zirconia electrolysis cells for the direct reduction of CO2 arc being developed as an alternative means of producing oxygen, but present many challenges for a large-scale oxygen production system. The very high operating temperatures and fragile nature of the cells coupled with fairly high operating voltages leave room for improvement. This paper will survey alternative oxygen production technologies, present data on operating characteristics, materials of construction, and some preliminary laboratory results on attempts to implement each. Our goal is to significantly improve upon the characteristics of proposed zirconia cells for oxygen production. To achieve that goal we are looking at electrolytic systems that operate at significantly lower temperatures, preferably below 31C to allow the incorporation of liquid CO2 in the electrolyte. Our preliminary results indicate that such a system will have much higher current densities and have simpler cathode construction than a porous gas feed electrode system. Such a system could be achieved based on nonaqueous electrolytes or ionic liquids. We are focusing our research on the anode reaction that will produce oxygen from a product generated at the cathode using CO2 as the feed. Operation at low temperatures also will open up the full range of polymer and metal materials, allowing a more robust system design to withstand the rigors of flight, landing, and long term unattended operation on the surface of Mars.

Lueck, Dale E.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Thermal Response of the Mars Science Laboratory Spacecraft During Entry, Descent and Landing

NASA’s Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) spacecraft successfully performed its Entry, Descent & Landing (EDL) phase on August 6, 2012. This paper presents the thermal response of the MSL spacecraft from EDL Initialization (5 days prior to Entry) to Rover touchdown on the surface of Mars. Temperature telemetry recorded during EDL is used to reconstruct the thermal response of the spacecraft to each EDL event. Temperature profiles for the Descent Stage and Rover hardware are presented and explained in the context of the changing EDL environments (aerothermal heating and convective cooling) and power states.

Novak, Keith S.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Exploring the Utility of Machine Learning-Based Passive Microwave Brightness Temperature Data Assimilation over Terrestrial Snow in High Mountain Asia

This study explores the use of a support vector machine (SVM) as the observation operator within a passive microwave brightness temperature data assimilation framework (herein SVM-DA) to enhance the characterization of snow water equivalent (SWE) over High Mountain Asia (HMA). A series of synthetic twin experiments were conducted with the NASA Land Information System (LIS) at a number of locations across HMA. Overall, the SVM-DA framework is effective at improving SWE estimates (~70% reduction in RMSE relative to the Open Loop) for SWE depths less than 200 mm during dry snowpack conditions. The SVM-DA framework also improves SWE estimates in deep, wet snow (~45% reduction in RMSE) when snow liquid water is well estimated by the land surface model, but can lead to model degradation when snow liquid water estimates diverge from values used during SVM training. In particular, two key challenges of using the SVM-DA framework were observed over deep, wet snowpacks. First, variations in snow liquid water content dominate the brightness temperature spectral difference (TB) signal associated with emission from a wet snowpack, which can lead to abrupt changes in SWE during the analysis update. Second, the ensemble of SVM-based predictions can collapse (i.e., yield a near-zero standard deviation across the ensemble) when prior estimates of snow are outside the range of snow inputs used during the SVM training procedure. Such a scenario can lead to the presence of spurious error correlations between SWE and TB, and as a consequence, can result in degraded SWE estimates from the analysis update. These degraded analysis updates can be largely mitigated by applying rule-based approaches. For example, restricting the SWE update when the standard deviation of the predicted TB is greater than 0.05 K helps prevent the occurrence of filter divergence. Similarly, adding a thin layer (i.e., 5 mm) of SWE when the synthetic TB is larger than 5 K can improve SVM-DA performance in the presence of a precipitation dry bias. The study demonstrates that a carefully constructed SVM-DA framework cognizant of the inherent limitations of passive microwave-based SWE estimation holds promise for snow mass data assimilation.

Kwon, Yonghwan↗
NASA NTRS2018

Microwave Remote Sensing of Snow: Advances over Ice Sheet, Land, and Sea Ice

Satellite microwave radiometers have enabled us to observe the cryosphere and its changes. A variety of algorithms have been developed since the late 1970s. These convert observed microwave radiation into geophysical, glaciological properties relevant to study ice sheets’ snow accumulation and melt, terrestrial snow water equivalent and freeze/thaw state, and various sea ice cover characteristics like extent, concentration, and thickness. In spite of the continuous availability of satellite microwave radiometers for the past 40 years, potential for advancing our understanding of the relationship between microwave radiation and snow/ice properties still exists. Original empirical algorithms have matured and are becoming more physically based. This presentation offers insights into some advances made during the past 10 years in monitoring ice sheet, terrestrial snow, and sea ice. These advances made it possible to provide new, more reliable climate-related variables to the community for the satellite era using the typical 18-37 GHz frequency range (e.g., retrievals of grain size profiles in Antarctica, snow cover stratification, and therefore accumulation with applications to climate studies). Recent NASA instruments have recorded low microwave frequencies (at 1.4 GHz). These observations have a large penetration depth, they emanate from deep into the ice, where properties including temperature are very stable. Nonetheless, it has been found at both Dome C, Antarctica and Summit, Greenland that changes in surface snow properties significantly influence these observations. Compared to ice sheets, terrestrial snow and sea ice present higher spatial heterogeneities. Over land, presence of canopy and lakes, though with known locations, add ambiguities in the retrievals of snow properties. Over sea ice, ridges, leads, changes in salinity, and sea ice drift augment further the level of difficulty in obtaining robust geophysical properties. Assessing the quality of satellite retrievals, often requiring field activities, is a necessary step in designing the next generation of microwave algorithms to monitor changes in the cryosphere.

Brucker, Ludovic↗
NASA NTRS2016

Impact of Soil Moisture Assimilation on Land Surface Model Spin-Up and Coupled LandAtmosphere Prediction

Advances in satellite monitoring of the terrestrial water cycle have led to a concerted effort to assimilate soil moisture observations from various platforms into offline land surface models (LSMs). One principal but still open question is that of the ability of land data assimilation (LDA) to improve LSM initial conditions for coupled short-term weather prediction. In this study, the impact of assimilating Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) soil moisture retrievals on coupled WRF Model forecasts is examined during the summers of dry (2006) and wet (2007) surface conditions in the southern Great Plains. LDA is carried out using NASAs Land Information System (LIS) and the Noah LSM through an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approach. The impacts of LDA on the 1) soil moisture and soil temperature initial conditions for WRF, 2) land-atmosphere coupling characteristics, and 3) ambient weather of the coupled LIS-WRF simulations are then assessed. Results show that impacts of soil moisture LDA during the spin-up can significantly modify LSM states and fluxes, depending on regime and season. Results also indicate that the use of seasonal cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) is more advantageous compared to the traditional annual CDF bias correction strategies. LDA performs consistently regardless of atmospheric forcing applied, with greater improvements seen when using coarser, global forcing products. Downstream impacts on coupled simulations vary according to the strength of the LDA impact at the initialization, where significant modifications to the soil moisture flux- PBL-ambient weather process chain are observed. Overall, this study demonstrates potential for future, higher-resolution soil moisture assimilation applications in weather and climate research.

soil moisture↗
NASA NTRS1974

The detection of dust storms over land and water with satellite visible and infrared measurements

The position of a large area of dust was successfully located over the Sahara Desert and off the west coast of Africa with infrared measurements from the Temperature Humidity Infrared Radiometer (THIR) and visible information from the Image Dissector Camera System (IDCS) on Nimbus 4 between 20 and 25 April 1970. Over land, near midday, the dust areas were associated with lower equivalent blackbody temperatures (TBB's) than in the surrounding areas due to the mixing of the dust with the cooler air just above the surface. Near midnight dust areas appeared to be located where the TBB's were higher than the surrounding regions. The TBB contrast was insufficient for dust detection over the ocean, but the contrast in the visible was great enough to track the movement of the dust for several days off the African west coast. Measurements from the THIR 6.5-7.2 micron channel were useful for detecting the presence of cirrus clouds which could have caused a misinterpretation of the 10.5-12.5 micron TBB's.

Shenk, W. E.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Influence of Soil Heterogeneity on Mesoscale Land Surface Fluxes During Washita '92

The influence of soil heterogeneity on the partitioning of mesoscale land surface energy fluxes at diurnal time scales is investigated over a 10(exp 6) sq km domain centered on the Little Washita Basin, Oklahoma, for the period June 10 - 18, 1992. The sensitivity study is carried out using MM5/PLACE, the Penn State/NCAR MM5 model enhanced with the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange or PLACE. PLACE is a one-dimensional land surface model possessing detailed plant and soil water physics algorithms, multiple soil layers, and the capacity to model subgrid heterogeneity. A series of 12-hour simulations were conducted with identical atmospheric initialization and land surface characterization but with different initial soil moisture and texture. A comparison then was made of the simulated land surface energy flux fields, the partitioning of net radiation into latent and sensible heat, and the soil moisture fields. Results indicate that heterogeneity in both soil moisture and texture affects the spatial distribution and partitioning of mesoscale energy balance. Spatial averaging results in an overprediction of latent heat flux, and an underestimation of sensible heat flux. In addition to the primary focus on the partitioning of the land surface energy, the modeling effort provided an opportunity to examine the issue of initializing the soil moisture fields for coupled three-dimensional models. For the present case, the initial soil moisture and temperature were determined from off-line modeling using PLACE at each grid box, driven with a combination of observed and assimilated data fields.

Jasinski, Michael F.↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Urban Heat Island Pilot Project (UHIPP)

Urban heat islands increase the demand for cooling energy and accelerate the formation of smog. They are created when natural vegetation is replaced by heat-absorbing surfaces such as building roofs and walls, parking lots, and streets. Through the implementation of measures designed to mitigate the urban heat island, communities can decrease their demand for energy and effectively "cool" the metropolitan landscape. Measures to reverse the urban heat island include afforestation and the widespread use of highly reflective surfaces. To demonstrate the potential benefits of implementing these measures, EPA has teamed up with NASA and LBNL to initiate a pilot project with three U.S. cities. As part of the pilot, NASA is using remotely-sensed data to quantify surface temperature, albedo, the thermal response number and NDVI vegetation of each city. To pursue these efforts, more information is needed about specific characteristics of several different cities. NASA used the Advanced Thermal and Land Applications Sensor (ATLAS) to obtain high spatial resolution (10 m pixel resolution) over each of the three pilot cities (Baton Rouge, Sacramento, and Salt Lake City). The goal of the UHIPP is to use the results from the NASA/LBNL analysis, combined with knowledge gained through working with various organizations within each pilot city to identify the most effective means of implementing strategies designed to mitigate the urban heat island, These "lessons learned" will be made available and used by cities across the U.S. to assist policy makers and others within various communities to analyze their own urban heat islands and determine which, if any, measures can be taken to help save energy and money, and to prevent pollution. The object of this session is for representatives from each of the pilot cities to present their results of the study and share the experience of working with these data in managing their urban landscape.

Luvall, Jeff↗
NASA NTRS2013

CFD Analysis for Assessing the Effect of Wind on the Thermal Control of the Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity Rover

The challenging range of landing sites for which the Mars Science Laboratory Rover was designed, requires a rover thermal management system that is capable of keeping temperatures controlled across a wide variety of environmental conditions. On the Martian surface where temperatures can be as cold as -123 C and as warm as 38 C, the rover relies upon a Mechanically Pumped Fluid Loop (MPFL) Rover Heat Rejection System (RHRS) and external radiators to maintain the temperature of sensitive electronics and science instruments within a -40 C to 50 C range. The RHRS harnesses some of the waste heat generated from the rover power source, known as the Multi Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG), for use as survival heat for the rover during cold conditions. The MMRTG produces 110 W of electrical power while generating waste heat equivalent to approximately 2000 W. Heat exchanger plates (hot plates) positioned close to the MMRTG pick up this survival heat from it by radiative heat transfer. Winds on Mars can be as fast as 15 m/s for extended periods. They can lead to significant heat loss from the MMRTG and the hot plates due to convective heat pick up from these surfaces. Estimation of this convective heat loss cannot be accurately and adequately achieved by simple textbook based calculations because of the very complicated flow fields around these surfaces, which are a function of wind direction and speed. Accurate calculations necessitated the employment of sophisticated Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) computer codes. This paper describes the methodology and results of these CFD calculations. Additionally, these results are compared to simple textbook based calculations that served as benchmarks and sanity checks for them. And finally, the overall RHRS system performance predictions will be shared to show how these results affected the overall rover thermal performance.

wind↗
NASA NTRS2018

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: Challenges, Opportunities, and AgMIP Frameworks for Foresight

Agricultural systems are currently undergoing rapid shifts owing to socioeconomic development, technological change, population growth, economic opportunity, evolving demand for commodities, and the need for sustainability amid global environmental change. It is not sufficient to maintain current harvest levels; rather, there is a need to rapidly increase production in light of a population growing to nearly 10 billion by mid-century and to more than 11 billion by 2100 (FAO, 2016; UN, 2016; Popkin et al., 2012). Current and future agricultural systems are additionally burdened by human-caused climate change, the result of accumulating greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, ecological destruction, and land use changes that have altered the chemical composition of Earth’s atmosphere and trapped energy in the Earth system (IPCC, 2013; Porter et al., 2014). This increased energy has already raised average surface temperatures by approximately 1 degree Centigrade (GISTEMP Team, 2017; Hansen et al., 2010), leading early on to the term “global warming,” but this phenomenon is now more accurately referred to as “climate change” because it also modifies atmospheric circulation, adjusts regional and seasonal precipitation patterns, and shifts the distribution and characteristics of extreme events (Bindoff et al., 2013; Collins et al., 2013). Food and health systems face increasing risk owing to progressive climate change now manifesting itself as more frequent, severe extreme weather events—heat waves, droughts, and floods (IPCC, 2013). Often without warning, weather-related shocks can have catastrophic and reverberating impacts on the increasingly exposed global food system—through production, processing, distribution, retail, disposal, and waste. Simultaneously, malnutrition and ill health are arising from lack of access to nutritious food, exacerbated in crises such as food price spikes or shortages. For some countries, particularly import-dependent low-income countries, weather shocks and price spikes can lead to social unrest, famine, and migration.

Ruane, Alex C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Understanding the Uncertainty and Variability of Earth’s Radiation Budget Components Over the Past 3 Decades from the NASA’s GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Release 4 Integrated Product

The NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) project produced a 30+ year time series of 3-hourly Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiative flux components at a 1x1 degree resolution. This SRB Release 4 Integrated Productare derived using imager data products from the cross-calibrated from ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) “HSeries” radiance, cloud and surface property data products. The ISCCP HXS product replaces ISCCP DX with a ninefold increase in pixel count (10km instead of 30km). ISCCP also provides an atmospheric temperature and moisture dataset known as nnHIRS which we use and discuss radiative flux sensitivities to in this presentation. Total solar irradiance is now variable consistent with SORCE measurements. Sea surface (SeaFlux v2.0) and land surface products (LandFlux) are utilized to achieve an radiative flux estimatesintegrated with global data sets from these GEWEX projects. The variable aerosol composition are specified using a detailed aerosol history from the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology (MAC) also used for background aerosol in the ISCCP HX. Numerous other improvements were made to the SW and LW algorithms including improved cloud optical property treatments and specification of surface spectral albedo and emissivity for various surface conditions. Here we analyze the new SWand LWSRB datasets, comparing them to the previous Release 3, BSRN, GEBA and PMEL surface measurements, and ERBE and CERES satellite datasets. For surface flux validation besides ensemble comparisons, we show the variability of SRB vs surface measurements from BSRN beginning in 1992 and GEBA SW from 1983. We assess the variability of the surface flux anomalies, particularly the net fluxes and the cloud radiative effects, over the entire time period including the period containing CERES overlap. For the TOA fluxes, the anomalies of the fluxes in the early period are compared to the MEaSURES ERBE and the latter period to CERES EBAF/SYN1Deg datasets for a benchmark. Long-term changes in the surface radiation budget components and cloud radiative effects are shown and discussed relative to CERES and surface measurements. This includes a change point analysis that helps associate various changes in the ISCCP GEO/LEO configurations and other inputs to variations in the radiative budget components.

Earth Radiation Budget↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Large Vehicle Lunar Landing Surface Interaction and In-Situ Resource Based Risk Mitigation

A key capability required for the exploration of planetary bodies is the ability to land on the surface. Previous work performed by NASA and other institutions has primarily focused on landing small spacecraft on planetary surfaces and the associated small-to-medium thrusters required for the soft landing. In the case of human exploration—particularly the establishment of long duration exploration and habitation outposts—the ability to land large landers, such as the SpaceX Starship, is necessary. These larger landing systems require the use of more powerful engines, with higher temperature engine exhaust and higher landing loads. Understanding the excavation of material by the engines, as well as the potential for the landing legs to sink into the subsurface, is key in ensuring reliable and safe landings. A further improvement in landing reliability can be achieved by constructing landing/launchpads, especially with in-situ resources.

Landing Pad↗
NASA NTRS2000

Scaling Issues Between Plot and Satellite Radiobrightness Observations of Arctic Tundra

Data from generation of satellite microwave radiometer will allow the detection of seasonal to decadal changes in the arctic hydrology cycle as expressed in temporal and spatial patterns of moisture stored in soil and snow This nw capability will require calibrated Land Surface Process/Radiobrightness (LSP/R) model for the principal terrains found in the circumpolar Arctic. These LSP/R models can than be used in weak constraint. Dimensional Data Assimilation (DDA)of the daily satellite observation to estimate temperature and moisture profiles within the permafrost in active layer.

Kim, Edward J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

The Effect of Soil Hydraulic Properties vs. Soil Texture in Land Surface Models

This study focuses on the effect of Soil Hydraulic Property (SHP) selection on modeled surface fluxes following a rain storm in a semi-arid environment. SHPs are often defined based on a Soil Texture Class (STC). To examine the effectiveness of this approach, the Noah land surface model was run with each of 1306 soils in a large SHP database. Within most STCs, the outputs have a range of 350 W/m2 for latent and sensible heat fluxes, and 8K for surface temperature. The average difference between STC median values is only 100 W/m2 for latent and sensible heat. It is concluded that STC explains 5-15% of the variance in model outputs and should not be used to determine SHPs.

Gutmann, E. D.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA SPoRT-Land Information System and Vegetation Stress Real-Time Products for Drought, Wildfire, and Pluvial Analysis

The NASA SPoRT Center has been producing a near real-time instance of the NASA Land Information System over a CONUS domain (hereafter “SPoRT-LIS”) since ~2015. The SPoRT-LIS runs the legacy Noah LSM in an observations-constrained manner, with outputs of soil moisture and temperature at layered depths along with surface energy fluxes. The unique configuration of SPoRT-LIS enables decision-making on operational timescales since it incorporates near real-time observations such as VIIRS Green Vegetation Fraction and MRMS QPE. An additional in-house Alaska-LIS is produced in real time to help inform end-users on spring snow melt and summer soil moisture trends during the wildfire season. Use of the SPoRT-LIS has gradually expanded in recent years as a component of drought analysis, feedback to the USDM, and is utilized by State Climate Offices. Operational feedback has led to increased applicability for analyses by other end-users in the drought community. This presentation will provide SPoRT-LIS applications for drought, pluvial, and fire weather case-studies. We will also present preliminary results of 2-week SPoRT-LIS forecast percentiles that were recently implemented using GFS model forecast fields. We will additionally discuss the pathway toward extending these forecasts into the future by incorporating ensemble forecasts for probabilistic guidance on soil moisture trends for potential flash drought and subseasonal outlooks.

Soil Moisture↗