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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

An algebraic convolution formulation for multiple-scattering correction in small-angle neutron scattering

Multiple scattering in small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) redistributes spectral weight and distorts structural interpretation, particularly for thick or strongly scattering samples. We develop a finite-dimensional spectral desmearing framework that corrects multiple scattering without resorting to integral transforms or model-dependent extrapolation. The primary intensity is expanded in an orthonormal basis adapted to the isotropic transverse-momentum measure, under which convolution reduces to a recursive tensor contraction, allowing the Poisson-weighted multiple-scattering series to be evaluated directly in a finite-dimensional basis representation. This formulation yields a stable forward–inverse mapping between apparent and primary spectra. Numerical tests demonstrate convergence under repeated convolution and accurate recovery of the single-scattering intensity. Application to SANS measurements collected at multiple neutron facilities, including the Spallation Neutron Source, the High Flux Isotope Reactor, and the Institut Laue-Langevin, shows the quantitative reconstruction of the underlying primary spectrum across a wide range of transmission conditions, including strongly attenuating samples. Here, the method provides a stable, model-agnostic framework for multiple-scattering correction in SANS and enables consistent structural interpretation across instruments and scattering regimes.

Tung, Chi-Huan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Grand Unification of Quantum Algorithms

Quantum algorithms offer significant speed-ups over their classical counterparts for a variety of problems. The strongest arguments for this advantage are borne by algorithms for quantum search, quantum phase estimation, and Hamiltonian simulation, which appear as subroutines for large families of composite quantum algorithms. A number of these quantum algorithms have recently been tied together by a novel technique known as the quantum singular value transformation (QSVT), which enables one to perform a polynomial transformation of the singular values of a linear operator embedded in a unitary matrix. In the seminal GSLW’19 paper on the QSVT [Gilyén et al., ACM STOC 2019], many algorithms are encompassed, including amplitude amplification, methods for the quantum linear systems problem, and quantum simulation. Here, we provide a pedagogical tutorial through these developments, first illustrating how quantum signal processing may be generalized to the quantum eigenvalue transform, from which the QSVT naturally emerges. Paralleling GSLW’19, we then employ the QSVT to construct intuitive quantum algorithms for search, phase estimation, and Hamiltonian simulation, and also showcase algorithms for the eigenvalue threshold problem and matrix inversion. This overview illustrates how the QSVT is a single framework comprising the three major quantum algorithms, suggesting a grand unification of quantum algorithms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of proton light yield of water-based liquid scintillator

Abstract The proton light yield of liquid scintillators is an important property in the context of their use in large-scale neutrino experiments, with direct implications for neutrino-proton scattering measurements and the discrimination of fast neutrons from inverse $$\beta $$ β -decay coincidence signals. This work presents the first measurement of the proton light yield of a water-based liquid scintillator (WbLS) formulated from 5% linear alkyl benzene (LAB), at energies below 20 MeV, as well as a measurement of the proton light yield of a pure LAB + 2 g/L 2,5-diphenyloxazole (PPO) mixture (LABPPO). The measurements were performed using a double time-of-flight method and a pulsed neutron beam from the 88-Inch Cyclotron at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. The proton light yields were measured relative to that of a 477 keV electron. The relative proton light yield of WbLS was approximately 3.8% lower than that of LABPPO, itself exhibiting a relative proton light yield 15–20% higher than previous measurements of an analogous anoxic sample. The observed quenching is not compatible with the Birks model for either material, but is well described with the addition of Chou’s bimolecular quenching term.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electronic structure and exchange interactions in altermagnetic MnGeP 2 in the quasiparticle self-consistent G W approach

The quasiparticle self-consistent 𝐺⁡𝑊 method is used to study the electronic band structure, optical dielectric function, and exchange interactions in chalcopyrite, 𝐼⁢ ‾ 4 ⁢2⁢𝑑, structure MnGeP 2 . The material is found to be an antiferromagnetic semiconductor with a lowest direct gap of 2.44 eV at the Γ point and a lower indirect gap of 1.87 eV from Γ to 𝑀. The material is an altermagnet because the two magnetic atoms of opposite spin are related by a twofold rotation operation perpendicular to the main fourfold rotation inversion axis. The spin splittings along a low symmetry line like 𝑃⁢𝑁 is sizable while at k points on the diagonal mirror planes or on the twofold symmetry axes the spin splitting is zero. The exchange interactions are calculated using a linear response approach. The antiferromagnetic exchange interaction between nearest neighbors in the primitive unit cell is dominating and found to be slightly decreasing upon carrier doping but not sufficiently to change the interaction to become ferromagnetic. The bare (noninteracting) and interacting transverse spin susceptibilities, which provide interatomic site exchange interactions after averaging over the muffin-tin spheres, are calculated from the 𝐺⁡𝑊 band structure and wave functions. From these exchange interactions, the spin wave spectra are obtained along the high symmetry lines and the Néel temperature is calculated using the mean-field and Tyablikov estimations. The dielectric function and the optical absorption spectra are calculated including excitonic effects using the Bethe Salpeter equation. The exchange interactions around Mn Ge defect sites is also studied. While we find it can generate ferromagnetic interactions with neighboring spins, we did not find direct evidence of producing an overall ferromagnetic phase. First, if Mn antisites are introduced by exchanging Mn with a nearby Ge, the interactions stay largely antiferromagnetic. Second, when we add additional Mn, in other words in Mn-rich stoichiometry, the Mn Ge antisites produce a strong ferromagnetic interaction primarily with the Mn in the same basal plane but weaker ferromagnetic interaction with adjacent plane Mn. The interactions between regular lattice Mn stay antiferromagnetic as before and thus favor keeping the antiferromagnetic order along the [001] direction. Adding Mn antisites, however, does lead to a metallic band structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adjoint Waveform Tomography for Crustal and Upper Mantle Structure the Middle East and Southwest Asia for Improved Waveform Simulations Using Openly Available Broadband Data

We present a new model of radially anisotropic seismic wavespeeds for the crust and upper mantle of a broad region of the Middle East and Southwest Asia (MESWA) derived from adjoint waveform tomography. We inverted waveforms from 192 Global Centroid Moment Tensor earthquakes (MW 5.5-7.0) recorded by over 1000 openly available broadband seismic stations from permanent and temporary networks in the region. Spatial coverage of the available data is highly uneven due to earthquakes clustered along plate boundaries and sparse coverage of open seismic networks in the region. We considered three possible starting models: the SPiRaL global model (Simmons et al., 2021); MEC-1 (Kaviani et al., 2020); and CSEM2.0 (Noe et al., 2023). Because the SPiRaL model provides good fits to the observed waveforms measured by the time-bandwidth product of selected windows in several period bands, provides all the necessary parameters and covers the entire domain we used it for the starting model with the period band 50-100 seconds. Inversion iterations proceeded using time-frequency phase misfits in six stages and 54 total iterations reducing the minimum period to 30 seconds. Our final model, MESWA, provides improved waveform fits compared to the starting model for both the data used in the inversion and an independent validation data set of 66 events. Two metrics of waveform fit (the time-frequency phase misfit used in the optimization and normalized L2 misfit) were both reduced by nearly 60% for both data sets and MESWA provides significantly larger misfit reductions relative to the SPiRaL model than the MEC-1 or CSEM models. We also find that MESWA provides a larger time-bandwidth product of selected windows indicating that more information content of the observed waveforms is explained by MESWA than the other models. Our new model reveals tectonic features imaged by other studies and methods but in a new holistic model of shear and compressional wavespeeds (v S and v P , respectively) with anisotropy covering the crust and uppermost mantle of a larger domain. MESWA has smaller scale-length features and tends to sharpen some features relative to the SPiRaL starting model. Examples include: low crustal v S in the TurkishIranian Plateau, Zagros Mountains, Afghan Central Blocks and Sulaiman Fold Belt; low mantle vSfollowing divergent (Gulf of Aden, Red Sea) and transform (Dead Sea Fault) margins of the Arabian Plate; low and high v S in the mantle beneath the Arabian Shield and Platform, respectively. Low vS is imaged below Cenozoic volcanic centers of the Arabian Peninsula, the so-called Mecca-Madina-Nafud (MMN) Line. Positive anisotropy (v SH > v SV ) is inferred for asthenospheric depths across the region except where up/downwelling may influence fabric alignment (e.g. Afar, Red Sea, Arabian Shield). Elevated vS tracks Makran subduction under southeast Iran. MESWA resembles the SPiRaL model in its long-wavelength structure, but enhances shorter wavelengths features on the order of 200 km and smaller. The resulting model could be used for as a starting model for further improvements, say using waveforms from in-country seismic networks that are not openly available or smaller-scale studies targeting shorter period waveforms. The model also could be used for source characterization and moment tensor inversion to improve earthquake hazard studies and nuclear explosion monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Training calibration-based counterfactual explainers for deep learning models in medical image analysis

The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence methods in healthcare is coupled with the critical need for techniques to rigorously introspect models and thereby ensure that they behave reliably. This has led to the design of explainable AI techniques that uncover the relationships between discernible data signatures and model predictions. In this context, counterfactual explanations that synthesize small, interpretable changes to a given query while producing desired changes in model predictions have become popular. This under-constrained, inverse problem is vulnerable to introducing irrelevant feature manipulations, particularly when the model’s predictions are not well-calibrated. Hence, in this paper, we propose the TraCE (training calibration-based explainers) technique, which utilizes a novel uncertainty-based interval calibration strategy for reliably synthesizing counterfactuals. Given the wide-spread adoption of machine-learned solutions in radiology, our study focuses on deep models used for identifying anomalies in chest X-ray images. Using rigorous empirical studies, we demonstrate the superiority of TraCE explanations over several state-of-the-art baseline approaches, in terms of several widely adopted evaluation metrics. Our findings show that TraCE can be used to obtain a holistic understanding of deep models by enabling progressive exploration of decision boundaries, to detect shortcuts, and to infer relationships between patient attributes and disease severity.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spin orbit torque switching of synthetic Co/Ir/Co trilayers with perpendicular anisotropy and tunable interlayer coupling

Spin orbit torque (SOT) has attracted much attention as an energy efficient electrical method to switch the magnetization in single magnetic layer with both in-plane and perpendicular anisotropy. Here, we report SOT switching of synthetic antiferromagnetic and ferrimagnetic Co/Ir/Co trilayers, where the net magnetization and the interlayer coupling strength are highly controllable. Here, a weak external field dependence of the SOT switching was observed due to the robust domain wall structure in the trilayer. The switching current density was observed to scale inversely with the net magnetization. For trilayers with the same net magnetization, switching current is independent of the layer order because switching in the thicker Co layer dominates. In both ferromagnetic and antiferromagetic regimes, the switching current reflects the interlayer coupling strength.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Type Ia supernova magnitude step from the local dark matter environment

ABSTRACT Residuals in the Hubble diagram at optical wavelengths and host galaxy stellar mass are observed to correlate in type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) (‘magnitude step’). Among possible progenitor channels for the associated explosions, those based on dark matter (DM) have attracted significant attention, including our recent proposal that ‘normal’ SNe Ia from bare detonations in sub-Chandrasekhar white dwarf stars are triggered by the passage of asteroid-mass primordial black holes (PBHs): the magnitude step could then originate from a brightness dependence on stellar properties, on DM properties, or both. Here, we present a method to estimate the local DM density and velocity dispersion of the environment of SN Ia progenitors. We find a luminosity step of $0.52\pm 0.11\,$ mag corresponding to bins of high versus low DM density in a sample of 222 low-redshift events from The Open Supernova Catalog. We investigate whether the magnitude step can be attributed to local DM properties alone, assuming asteroid-mass PBHs. Given the inverse correlation between SN Ia brightness and PBH mass, an intriguing explanation is a spatially inhomogeneous PBH mass function. If so, a strong mass segregation in the DM density-dependent PBH mass scale is needed to explain the magnitude step. While mass segregation is observed in dense clusters, it is unlikely to be realized on galactic scales. Therefore, if DM consists of asteroid-mass PBHs, the magnitude step is more likely to exist, and dominantly to be attributed to local stellar properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Surface Charge Distribution Mapping Using an Electrostatic Probe

Undesired accumulation of charge on dielectric materials causing electrostatic discharges can be an issue in pulsed power systems and electrical systems in general. As such, an understanding of surface charge distribution, charge accumulation, and decay is required. An in-house no-contact electrostatic probe designed with a 2 mm resolution was fabricated to measure and map surface charge distribution. Designed as a contactless instrument, the probe consisting of a metal rod and low leakage amplifier circuit probes the electric potential near the surface. A scan of the surface then provides the raw data, a potential distribution. The actual probe response - i.e., the surface charge to voltage transfer function, is accounted for in post-processing. This is accomplished via an Inverse Wien Filter - a technique often applied in image processing - to deconvolve the probe response from the measured data. A commercially available electrostatic probe, the Trek 341B meter with a 3455ET probe, capable of measuring +/- 20 kV was compared to the in- house probe that is designed to cover a wider range from +/- 35 kV. A resolution better than the simple probe resolution is achieved through the distribution’s scanning voltage method and deconvolution. Applying repeated scans, surface charge decay was tracked on various polymer materials to determine the material and environment dependence; materials included were PA6, PTFE, and others. As an example of material dependence, samples charged to 20 kV at 65% humidity experience full charge decay in approximately 45 seconds for PA5 (152 mm dia.), while it took about 100 times longer for PTFE (51 mm dia.) to observe the same decay/redistribution of charge.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Suppression of one-dimensional weak localization by band asymmetry

Herein we investigate disorder-induced localization in metals that break time-reversal and inversion symmetries through their energy dispersion, ε k ≠ε– k , but lack Berry phases. In the perturbative regime of disorder, we show that weak localization is suppressed due to a mismatch of the Fermi velocities of left and right movers. To substantiate this analytical result, we perform quench numerics on chains shorter than the Anderson localization length ξ—the latter computed and verified to be finite using the recursive Green's function method—and find a sharp rise in the saturation value of the participation ratio due to band asymmetry, indicating a tendency to delocalize. Interestingly, for weak disorder strength η, we see a better fit to the scaling behavior ξ∝1/η 2 for asymmetric bands than conventional symmetric ones.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

Proton capture on 34 S in the astrophysical energy regime of O-Ne novae

Nuclear reaction sensitivity studies have shown that the final isotopic abundance of O-Ne nova nucleosynthesis is dependent on the 34 S(p,γ) 35 Cl reaction at astrophysical energies corresponding to peak nova burning temperatures of 0.1–0.4 GK. Isotopic ratios of the S, Cl, and Ar products are all used in various methods of cosmochemical analysis of presolar meteoritic grains. Due to the lack of direct experimental data, the 34 S+p reaction rate has been estimated using statistical modeling or information from indirect nucleon transfer experiments. In order to provide direct reaction information, here the resonance strengths of several low energy resonances, E c.m. = 272–495 keV, in the 34 S(p,γ) 35 Cl reaction were measured for the first time in inverse kinematics using the DRAGON recoil separator located at TRIUMF, Canada’s Particle Accelerator Centre in Vancouver.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Equilibrium carbon isotope fractionation factors of hydrocarbons: Semi-empirical force-field method

Here, we have calculated the reduced partition function ratios for carbon isotopes (β-factor) of 67 hydrocarbons (alkanes, alkenes, alkynes, cycloalkanes, and aromatics), including their 267 single-substituted isotopomers. The calculations were performed using the harmonic oscillator – rigid rotator model and the Urey / Bigeleisen-Mayer approach. Normal frequencies of molecular vibrations of the isotopologues were calculated from the molecular structures data and valence field force constants stored in the Light-handled Elucidation of Vibrations (LEV) database elaborated by Dr. Gribov and his colleagues in Russia. The LEV database is constructed from experimental spectroscopic and structural data by solving inverse problems of molecular vibrations. The LEV is internally consistent and the most comprehensive database available to date. The β-factor were calculated in the temperature range of 200–800 K with a 10 K step. Our calculations predict that the β-factors increase with an increasing number of C atoms within the same groups of hydrocarbons (e.g., alkanes). Our calculations also show a general descending order of 13 C enrichments among the different groups of hydrocarbons: cycloalkanes, aromatics, alkenes (double bonds) and isoalkanes, alkanes, alkynes (triple bonds). Position-specific, intramolecular isotope effects within hydrocarbons are determined by the β-factors of C in the different functional groups in the order: quaternary (C), tertiary (methine, CH), secondary (methylene, CH 2 ), primary (methyl, CH 3 ) and double bond (C=C), saturated bond (C - C), triple bond (HC≡). Our calculations on bulk and position-specific carbon isotope β-factors of the hydrocarbons, which are generally consistent with very limited ab initio calculations in the literature, are internally consistent and the most comprehensive to date for future applications to position-specific isotope geochemistry of hydrocarbons.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Aggregation and analysis of indication-symptom relationships for drugs approved in the USA

Abstract Purpose Drug indications and disease symptoms often confound adverse event reports in real-world datasets, including electronic health records and reports in the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS). A thorough, standardized set of indications and symptoms is needed to identify these confounders in such datasets for drug research and safety assessment. The aim of this study is to create a comprehensive list of drug-indication associations and disease-symptom associations using multiple resources, including existing databases and natural language processing. Methods Drug indications for drugs approved in the USA were extracted from two databases, RxNorm and Side Effect Resource (SIDER). Symptoms for these indications were extracted from MedlinePlus and using natural language processing from PubMed abstracts. Results A total of 1361 unique drugs, 1656 unique indications, and 2201 unique symptoms were extracted from a wide variety of MedDRA System Organ Classes. Text-mining precision was maximized at 0.65 by examining Term Frequency Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) scores of the disease-symptom associations. Conclusion The drug-indication associations and disease-symptom associations collected in this study may be useful in identifying confounders in other datasets, such as safety reports. With further refinement and additional drugs, indications, and symptoms, this dataset may become a quality resource for disease symptoms.

Punyala, Ananth↗
DOE OSTI2024

How Does HF-DFT Achieve Chemical Accuracy for Water Clusters?

Bolstered by recent calculations of exact functional-driven errors (FEs) and density-driven errors (DEs) of semilocal density functionals in the water dimer binding energy , we investigate approximate FEs and DEs in neutral water clusters containing up to 20 monomers, charged water clusters, and alkali- and halide-water clusters. Our proxy for the exact density is r 2 SCAN 50, a 50% global hybrid of exact exchange with r 2 SCAN, which may be less correct than r 2 SCAN for the compact water monomer but importantly more correct for long-range electron transfers in the noncompact water clusters. We show that SCAN makes substantially larger FEs for neutral water clusters than r 2 SCAN, while both make essentially the same DEs. Unlike the case for barrier heights, these FEs are small in a relative sense and become large in an absolute sense only due to an increase in cluster size. SCAN@HF, short for SCAN evaluated on the Hartree–Fock (HF) density, produces a cancellation of errors that makes it chemically accurate for predicting the absolute binding energies of water clusters. Likewise, adding a long-range dispersion correction to r 2 SCAN@HF, as in the composite method HF-r 2 SCAN-DC4, makes its FE more negative than in r 2 SCAN@HF, permitting a near-perfect cancellation of FE and DE. r 2 SCAN by itself (and even more so, r 2 SCAN evaluated on the r 2 SCAN 50 density), is almost perfect for the energy differences between water hexamers, and thus probably also for liquid water away from the boiling point. Thus, the accuracy of composite methods like SCAN@HF and HF-r 2 SCAN-DC4 is not due to the HF density being closer to the exact density, but to a compensation of errors from its greater degree of localization. We also give an argument for the approximate reliability of this unconventional error cancellation for diverse molecular properties. Lastly, we confirm this unconventional error cancellation for the SCAN description of the water trimer via Kohn–Sham inversion of the CCSD(T) density.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Towards fast, accurate predictions of RF simulations via data-driven modeling: Forward and lateral models

Three machine learning techniques (multilayer perceptron, random forest, and Gaussian process) provide fast surrogate models for lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) simulations. A single GENRAY/CQL3D simulation without radial diffusion of fast electrons requires several minutes of wall-clock time to complete, which is acceptable for many purposes, but too slow for integrated modeling and real-time control applications. More accurate simulations with fast electron diffusion are even slower, requiring multiple hours of run time with parallel processing. The machine learning models use a database of 16,000+ GEN-RAY/CQL3D simulations for training, validation, and testing. Latin hypercube sampling methods implemented in πScope ensure that the database covers the range of 9 input parameters (n e0 , T e0 , I p , B t , R 0 , n ∥︀ , Z e f f , V loop , P LHCD ) with sufficient density in all regions of parameter space. The surrogate models reduce the computation time from minutes-hours to ms with high accuracy across the input parameter space. Data-driven surrogate models also allow for solving inverse and “lateral” problems. A surrogate model for the inverse problem maps from a desired current drive or power deposition profile to a set of input parameters that would result in such a profile, while a surrogate model for the lateral problem maps from a measured experimental quantity such as hard x-ray emission to a current drive or power deposition profile. In conclusion, the πScope database creation workflow is flexible and applicable to other RF simulation codes such as TORIC.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Where did the tumor start? An inverse solver with sparse localization for tumor growth models

In this work, we present a numerical scheme for solving an inverse problem for parameter estimation in tumor growth models for glioblastomas, a form of aggressive primary brain tumor. The growth model is a reaction–diffusion partial differential equation (PDE) for the tumor concentration. We use a PDE-constrained optimization formulation for the inverse problem. The unknown parameters are the reaction coefficient (proliferation), the diffusion coefficient (infiltration), and the initial condition field for the tumor PDE. Segmentation of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans drive the inverse problem where segmented tumor regions serve as partial observations of the tumor concentration. Like most cases in clinical practice, we use data from a single time snapshot. Moreover, the precise time relative to the initiation of the tumor is unknown, which poses an additional difficulty for inversion. We perform a frozen-coefficient spectral analysis and show that the inverse problem is severely ill-posed. We introduce a biophysically motivated regularization on the structure and magnitude of the tumor initial condition. In particular, we assume that the tumor starts at a few locations (enforced with a sparsity constraint on the initial condition of the tumor) and that the initial condition magnitude in the maximum norm is equal to one. We solve the resulting optimization problem using an inexact quasi-Newton method combined with a compressive sampling algorithm for the sparsity constraint. Our implementation uses PETSc and AccFFT libraries. We conduct numerical experiments on synthetic and clinical images to highlight the improved performance of our solver over a previously existing solver that uses standard two-norm regularization for the calibration parameters. The existing solver is unable to localize the initial condition. Our new solver can localize the initial condition and recover infiltration and proliferation. In clinical datasets (for which the ground truth is unknown), our solver results in qualitatively different solutions compared to the two-norm regularized solver.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian Approach to Regional Decadal Predictability: Sparse Parameter Estimation in High-Dimensional Linear Inverse Models of High-Latitude Sea Surface Temperature Variability

Stochastic reduced models are an important tool in climate systems whose many spatial and temporal scales cannot be fully discretized or underlying physics may not be fully accounted for. One form of reduced model, the linear inverse model (LIM), has been widely used for regional climate predictability studies—typically focusing more on tropical or midlatitude studies. However, most LIM fitting techniques rely on point estimation techniques deriving from fluctuation–dissipation theory. In this methodological study we explore the use of Bayesian inference techniques for LIM parameter estimation of sea surface temperature (SST), to quantify the skillful decadal predictability of Bayesian LIM models at high latitudes. We show that Bayesian methods, when compared to traditional point estimation methods for LIM-type models, provide better calibrated probabilistic skill, while simultaneously providing better point estimates due to the regularization effect of the prior distribution in high-dimensional problems. We compare the effect of several priors, as well as maximum likelihood estimates, on 1) estimating parameter values on a perfect model experiment and 2) producing calibrated 1-yr SST anomaly forecast distributions using a preindustrial control run of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Finally, we employ a host of probabilistic skill metrics to determine the extent to which an LIM can forecast SST anomalies at high latitudes. We find that the choice of prior distribution has an appreciable impact on estimation outcomes, and priors that emphasize physically relevant properties enhance the model’s ability to capture variability of SST anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bridging the gap between NMR measured mean silicate chain length and nano-scale silicate polymorphism of calcium silicate hydrates

Variable stoichiometry and silicate polymorphism in calcium-silicate-hydrates (C-S-H) has impeded the revelation of point defects distribution in the silicate tetrahedral network of C-S-H, which resembles tobermorite crystal structure with some bridging tetrahedra (BT) and paired tetrahedra (PT) vacancies in dreierketten chains. Here we use a computational approach to characterize silicate polymorphism by introducing the vacancy ratio of BT to PT (α) and establishing a three-term empirical mean chain length (MCL) formula for different calcium-to‑silicon ratios (Ca/Si) ranging from 1.2 to 2.3. The formula identifies BT and PT controls at low and high α respectively and allows an inverse mapping of polymorphic range based on NMR experiments. The proposed computational framework quantitatively describes silicate polymorphs and links NMR-measured MCL to C-S-H atomistic configurations at the molecular level.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗