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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Reevaluating Suitability Estimates Based on Dynamics of Cropland Expansion in the Brazilian Amazon

Agricultural suitability maps are a key input for land use zoning and projections of cropland expansion. Suitability assessments typically consider edaphic conditions, climate, crop characteristics, and sometimes incorporate accessibility to transportation and market infrastructure. However, correct weighting among these disparate factors is challenging, given rapid development of new crop varieties, irrigation, and road networks, as well as changing global demand for agricultural commodities. Here, we compared three independent assessments of cropland suitability to spatial and temporal dynamics of agricultural expansion in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 2001 2012. We found that areas of recent cropland expansion identified using satellite data were generally designated as low to moderate suitability for rainfed crop production. Our analysis highlighted the abrupt nature of suitability boundaries, rather than smooth gradients of agricultural potential, with little additional cropland expansion beyond the extent of the flattest areas (0-2% slope). Satellite-based estimates of the interannual variability in the use of existing crop areas also provided an alternate means to assess suitability. On average, cropland areas in the Cerrado biome had higher utilization (84%) than croplands in the Amazon region of northern Mato Grosso (74%). Areas of more recent expansion had lower utilization than croplands established before 2002, providing empirical evidence for lower suitability or alternative management strategies (e.g., pasture soya rotations) for lands undergoing more recent land use transitions. This unplanted reserve constitutes a large area of potentially available cropland (PAC)without further expansion, within the management limits imposed for pest management and fallow cycles. Using two key constraints on future cropland expansion, slope and restrictions on further deforestation of Amazon or Cerrado vegetation, we found little available flat land for further legal expansion of crop production in Mato Grosso. Dynamics of cropland expansion from more than a decade of satellite observations indicated narrow ranges of suitability criteria, restricting PAC under current policy conditions, and emphasizing the advantages of field-scale information to assess suitability and utilization.

Morton, Douglas C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Analysis of PNM's Renewable Reserve Requirements to Meet New Mexico's Decarbonization Goals

Over the next three years, the Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) plans to increase utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity from today’s roughly 330MW to about 1600MW. This massive increase in variable generation—from about 15% to 75% of peak load—will require changes in how PNM operates their system. We characterize the 5 and 30-minute solar and wind forecast errors that the system is likely to experience in order to determine the level of reserves needed to counteract such events. Our focus in this study is on negative forecast error (in other words, shortfalls relative to forecast) – whereas excess variable generation can be curtailed if needed, a shortfall must be compensated for to avoid loss of load. Calculating forecast error requires the use of the same forecasting methods that PNM uses or a reasonable approximation thereof. For wind, we use a persistence forecast on actual 5-minute 2019 wind output data (scaled up to reflect the amount of wind capacity planned for 2025). For solar, we use a formula incorporating the clear sky index (CSI) for the forecast. As the solar on the grid now is a small fraction of what is planned for 2025, we generated 5-minute solar data using 2019 weather inputs. We find that to handle 99.9% of the 5-minute negative forecast errors, a maximum of 275MW of variable generation reserve during daylight hours, and a maximum of 75MW during non-daylight hours, should be sufficient. Note that this variable generation reserve is an additional reserve category that specifies reserves over and above what are currently carried for contingency reserve. This would require a significant increase in reserve relative to what PNM currently carries or can call upon from other utilities per reserve sharing agreements. This variable generation reserve specification may overestimate the actual level needed to deal with PNM’s planned variable generation in 2025. The forecasting methodologies used in this study likely underperform PNM’s forecasting – and better forecasting allows for less reserve. To obtain more precise estimates, it is necessary to consider load and use the same forecasting inputs and methods used by PNM.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling and analysis of synthetic liquid fuel production from CO 2 and nuclear energy using methanol-to-diesel process

Electrofuels (e-fuels) are synthetic fuels produced from carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and electricity for blending with or replacing petroleum fuels. Nuclear energy is an attractive energy feedstock for e-fuel production because of its low environmental footprint and its ability to provide steady heat and power essential for e-fuels production. We modeled and evaluated the cost and environmental footprint of e-fuels production in the distillate range for three nuclear power scales, 100, 500, and 1000 MWe, through methanol and olefins intermediates leveraging commercial or high technology readiness level (TRL) processes. Compared to the commonly studied e-fuels from Fischer Tropsch process that has a distillate yield of <70% with the rest being low value naphtha, the proposed process via methanol intermediate increases the product selectivity with distillate yield of 96% and only 4% naphtha. The modeled process has a carbon conversion ratio of 98%, and a process energy efficiency of 56% relative to the total equivalent nuclear electricity input. The e-fuel plant economics and GHG emissions were estimated by considering CO 2 collected from ethanol plants adjacent to nuclear power plants. The estimated minimum fuel selling prices (MFSP) of e-fuel is in the range of $5.7-$9.1/gal depending on e-fuel plant scale, electricity cost, and CO 2 transportation distance. The corresponding e-fuels life cycle GHG emissions is estimated in the range of 5-6 gCO 2 e/MJ of liquid fuel using the R&D Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (R&D GREET) model.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic data-driven multiscale modeling for predicting the degradation of a 316L stainless steel nuclear cladding material

Here, we have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Shear Alfvén Waves Driven by Magnetic Reconnection as an Energy Source for the Aurora Borealis

Previous studies have concluded that the Hall magnetic field structures generated during magnetic reconnection are carried away by kinetic Alfvén waves. Here, we apply a kinetic simulation with an ion/electron mass ratio closer to its natural value and find that open boundary conditions and much reduced damping rates permit the shear Alfvén waves (SAWs) to become the main carrier of wave energy. Further, for magnetotail reconnection, these SAWs provide efficient transport of wave energy, enhancing the energy input for the Aurora Borealis by orders of magnitude above previous estimates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Disaggregating Future Retail Electricity Rate Growth [Slides]

Recent Berkeley Lab research found that modest retail rate increases over the past 10 years were mostly driven by large increases in capital expenditures (CapEx) that were offset in part by substantial wholesale price reductions. Decision-makers are increasingly concerned about the potential future rate impacts of a number of policies and industry trends that support rapid decarbonization, electrification, and grid modernization. Using historical FERC Form 1 data and the existing literature on policies and industry trends that are likely to affect utility-incurred costs and retail sales, Berkeley Lab researchers developed ranges of forecasted growth rates for cost-related rate drivers (i.e., fuel and purchased power; transmission, distribution, generation, and other categories of both non-fuel operations & maintenance and CapEx) and non-cost related rate drivers (i.e., retail sales, peak demand, and customers). These were then used as inputs to a pro-forma utility financial model (FINDER) that estimated the growth in retail electric rates between 2020 and 2030 for a prototypical vertically-integrated investor-owned utility in the United States. The analysis produced the following results: 1. Assuming average growth rates in all rate drivers, future retail rate growth is driven by sizable increases in all CapEx costs, where fuel and purchased power costs are replaced by generation CapEx as the largest rate component between 2020 and 2030. 2. Growth in sales/peak demand/customers, generation CapEx costs, and fuel and purchased power (FPP) costs, in isolation, produce the most uncertainty in rate growth. Specifically, a 1% increase in the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of retail sales, coincident peak demand (CP), and customers (Sales-CP-Cust) results in a 0.88-0.93% decrease in the CAGR of rates, in isolation. However, a 1% increase in the CAGR of generation CapEx budgets results in a 0.07-0.14% increase in the CAGR of rates, while a 1% increase in the CAGR of FPP costs causes a 0.10-0.14% increase in the CAGR of rates, all else being equal. 3. Taking into account the correlation and variability of the growth in all rate drivers jointly, generation CapEx is expected to be both the largest and most uncertain rate component by 2030 (20-25% share of the retail rate). Transmission and distribution CapEx, along with fuel and purchased power costs are each expected to comprise between 12% and 17% of retail rates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Data-Driven Multiscale Modeling for Predicting Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of 316L Stainless Steel

We have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Electrification Futures Study Flexible Load Profiles

This data set includes hourly profiles for flexible load developed for the Electrification Futures Study (EFS). The load profiles represent projected end-use electricity demand that is assumed to be flexible (i.e., can be shifted throughout a day) for various scenarios of flexibility (Base, Enhanced), electrification (Reference, Medium, High), and technology advancement (Slow, Moderate, Rapid), and were developed as inputs into the ReEDS model. The quantity of flexible load is estimated using assumptions on the level of flexibility and customer participation within each subsector modeled in the EFS. Detailed assumptions and modeling implementation will be documented in ongoing EFS analyses. Flexible load profiles are provided for a subset of years (2018, 2020, 2024, 2030, 2040, 2050) and are aggregated to the state and sector level. Total electricity load profiles can be found in a related EFS data set (https://dx.doi.org/10.7799/1593122). NOTE: Due to the file size, Mac users may experience issues decompressing the zip files using the Mac Archive Utility. In those cases, decompressing using the command line is recommended. - Mai, Trieu, Paige Jadun, Jeffrey Logan, Colin McMillan, Matteo Muratori, Daniel Steinberg, Laura Vimmerstedt, Ryan Jones, Benjamin Haley, and Brent Nelson. 2018. Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Electric Technology Adoption and Power Consumption for the United States. National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-71500. https://doi.org/10.2172/1459351. - Murphy, Caitlin, Trieu Mai, Yinong Sun, Paige Jadun, Matteo Muratori, Brent Nelson, Ryan Jones. Forthcoming. Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution and Infrastructure Development for the United States. National Renewable Energy Laboratory. - Sun, Yinong, Paige Jadun, Brent Nelson, Matteo Muratori, Caitlin Murphy, Jeffrey Logan, and Trieu Mai. Forthcoming. Electrification Futures Study: Methodological Approaches for Assessing Long-Term Power System Impacts of End-Use Electrification. National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

buildings↗
NASA NTRS1973

Maximum likelihood synchronizer for binary overlapping PCM/NRZ signals.

A maximum likelihood parameter estimation technique for the self bit synchronization problem is investigated. The input sequence to the bit synchronizer is a sequence of binary overlapping PCM/NRZ signal in the presence of white Gaussian noise with zero mean and known variance. The resulting synchronizer consists of matched filters, a transition device and a weighting function. Finally, the performance is examined by Monte Carlo simulations.

Wang, C. D.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Minimal order observers for linear functions of the state vector

The problem of estimating linear functions of a state vector in a multi-input/output system is considered. A simple lower bound on the observer order with arbitrary eigenvalues is established. Algorithms to construct minimal-order stable (or arbitrary dynamics) observers are also outlined.

Srinathkumar, S.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Feasibility of recovering a one million-pound booster

The concept of reusing spacecraft and launch vehicles is currently exemplified by the Space Shuttle Orbiter and the two recoverable and reusable solid rocket boosters (SRBs) which are part of its launch system. It is shown that it is possible to recover launch systems weighing as much as one million pounds at reasonable impact velocities using a hybrid parachute-retrorocket recovery system. The new Kevlar materials, which have a much higher strength-to-weight ratio than nylon materials, make it possible to recover a one-million-pound booster for a reasonable weight penalty. The selected input parameters to the parachute weight equation result in an accurate estimation of the current Space Shuttle solid rocket booster parachute recovery system.

Toni, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Density of the mantle of Mars

The range of zero pressure densities of the Martian mantle which are compatible with the mean density and moment of inertia factor of Mars has been explored by: (1) considering the full range of plausible core compositions and densities, and (2) investigating the sensitivity of computed mantle densities to uncertainties in the input parameters. Ni, Fe, Fe3O4, and FeS cores were considered; corresponding zero pressure mantle densities range from 3.47 to 3.41 g/cu cm. Uncertainty in the mantle density of about 0.04 g/cu cm for the Fe core model and about 0.05 g/cu cm for the FeS core model results from uncertainties in the input parameters. The zero pressure density of the Martian mantle is estimated to be 3.44 plus or minus 0.06 g/cu cm.

Goettel, K. A.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Modal analysis using a Fourier analyzer, curve-fitting, and modal tuning

The proposed modal test program differs from single-input methods in that preliminary data may be acquired using multiple inputs, and modal tuning procedures may be employed to define closely spaced frquency modes more accurately or to make use of frequency response functions (FRF's) which are based on several input locations. In some respects the proposed modal test proram resembles earlier sine-sweep and sine-dwell testing in that broadband FRF's are acquired using several input locations, and tuning is employed to refine the modal parameter estimates. The major tasks performed in the proposed modal test program are outlined. Data acquisition and FFT processing, curve fitting, and modal tuning phases are described and examples are given to illustrate and evaluate them.

Craig, R. R., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Analysis of nystagmus response to a pseudorandom velocity input

Space motion sickness was not reported during the first Apollo missions; however, since Apollo 8 through the current Shuttle and Skylab missions, approximately 50% of the crewmembers have experienced instances of space motion sickness. Space motion sickness, renamed space adaptation syndrome, occurs primarily during the initial period of a mission until habilation takes place. One of NASA's efforts to resolve the space adaptation syndrome is to model the individual's vestibular response for basis knowledge and as a possible predictor of an individual's susceptibility to the disorder. This report describes a method to analyse the vestibular system when subjected to a pseudorandom angular velocity input. A sum of sinusoids (pseudorandom) input lends itself to analysis by linear frequency methods. Resultant horizontal ocular movements were digitized, filtered and transformed into the frequency domain. Programs were developed and evaluated to obtain the (1) auto spectra of input stimulus and resultant ocular resonse, (2) cross spectra, (3) the estimated vestibular-ocular system transfer function gain and phase, and (4) coherence function between stimulus and response functions.

Lessard, C. S.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Spatially recursive filtering and smoothing for multibody dynamics

Methods developed recently by the author to solve the problem of forward dynamics for nonlinear joint-connected multibody systems are summarized. Solution of this problem is of interest in such application areas as robotics, deploying structures, ground vehicles, and pointing of antennas and instrumented platforms. The problem is solved by the recursive filtering and smoothing techniques of state estimation theory. The filtering stage takes the applied joint moments as inputs to produce a sequence of spatial constraint forces acting at the joints of the system. The smoothing stage takes the innovations process resulting from the filter as an input and produces a set of spatial accelerations and a corresponding set of joint-angle accelerations.

Rodriguez, G.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Data compression for Eos on-board SAR processor

A lightweight, low-power, real-time data compressor design for the Earth Observing System (Eos) onboard synthetic aperture radar (SAR) processor is presented. The implementation is based on VLSI design of a pipelined binary tree-searched vector quantizer (VQ), utilizing space-qualifiable 1.25-micron CMOS technology. The implementation exploits VLSI system design principles such as the modularity, regular data flow, simple interconnection, localized communication, simple global control, and parallel/pipelined processing. The overall system requires 30 chips with only one VLSI processing element design. The total weight is about 1.2 lbs, with an estimated power dissipation of approximately 4 watts operating at the maximum input data rate. The projected throughput rate exceeds 5 MHz.

Chang, C. Y.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Microgravity vibration isolation technology: Development to demonstration

The low gravity environment provided by space flight has afforded the science community a unique area for the study of fundamental and technological sciences. However, the dynamic environment observed on space shuttle flights and predicted for Space Station Freedom has complicated the analysis of prior 'microgravity' experiments and prompted concern for the viability of proposed space experiments requiring long term, low gravity environments. Thus, isolation systems capable of providing significant improvements to this random environment have been developed. This dissertation deals with the design constraints imposed by acceleration sensitive, microgravity experiment payloads in the unique environment of space. A theoretical background for the inertial feedback and feedforward isolation of a payload was developed giving the basis for two experimental active inertial isolation systems developed for the demonstration of these advanced active isolation techniques. A prototype six degree of freedom digital active isolation system was designed and developed for the ground based testing of an actively isolated payload in three horizontal degrees of freedom. A second functionally equivalent system was built for the multi-dimensional testing of an active inertial isolation system in a reduced gravity environment during low gravity aircraft trajectories. These multi-input multi-output control systems are discussed in detail with estimates on acceleration noise floor performance as well as the actual performance acceleration data. The attenuation performance is also given for both systems demonstrating the advantages between inertial and non-inertial control of a payload for both the ground base environment and the low gravity aircraft acceleration environment. A future goal for this area of research is to validate the technical approaches developed to the 0.01 Hz regime by demonstrating a functional active inertial feedforward/feedback isolation system during orbital flight. A NASA IN-STEP flight experiment has been proposed to accomplish this goal, and the expected selection for the IN-STEP program has been set for Jul. of 1993.

Grodsinsky, Carlos M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Steady and unsteady blade stresses within the SSME ATD/HPOTP inducer

There were two main goals of the ATD HPOTP (alternate turbopump development)(high pressure oxygen turbopump). First, determine the steady and unsteady inducer blade surface strains produced by hydrodynamic sources as a function of flow capacity (Q/N), suction specific speed (Nss), and Reynolds number (Re). Second, to identify the hydrodynamic source(s) of the unsteady blade strains. The reason the aforementioned goals are expressed in terms of blade strains as opposed to blade hydrodynamic pressures is because of the interest regarding the high cycle life of the inducer blades. This report focuses on the first goal of the test program which involves the determination of the steady and unsteady strain (stress) values at various points within the inducer blades. Strain gages were selected as the strain measuring devices. Concurrent with the experimental program, an analytical study was undertaken to produce a complete NASTRAN finite-element model of the inducer. Computational fluid dynamics analyses were utilized to provide the estimated steady-state blade surface pressure loading needed as load input to the NASTRAN inducer model.

Gross, R. Steven↗