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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Deflection by kinetic impact: Sensitivity to asteroid properties

Impacting an asteroid with a spacecraft traveling at high speed delivers an impulsive change in velocity to the body. In certain circumstances, this strategy could be used to deflect a hazardous asteroid, moving its orbital path off of an Earth-impacting course. However, the efficacy of momentum delivery to asteroids by hypervelocity impact is sensitive to both the impact conditions (particularly velocity) and specific characteristics of the target asteroid. We numerically model asteroid response to kinetic impactors under a wide range of initial conditions, using an Adaptive Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics code. Impact velocities spanning 1–30 km/s were investigated, yielding, for a particular set of assumptions about the modeled target material, a power-law dependence consistent with a velocity-scaling exponent of μ = 0.44. Target characteristics including equation of state, strength model, porosity, rotational state, and shape were varied, and corresponding changes in asteroid response were documented. Moreover, the kinetic-impact momentum-multiplication factor, β, decreases with increasing asteroid cohesion and increasing porosity. Although increased porosity lowers β, larger porosities result in greater deflection velocities, as a consequence of reduced target masses for asteroids of fixed size. Porosity also lowers disruption risk for kinetic impacts near the threshold of disruption. Including fast (P = 2.5 h) and very fast (P = 100 s) rotation did not significantly alter β but did affect the risk of disruption by the impact event. Asteroid shape is found to influence the efficiency of momentum delivery, as local slope conditions can change the orientation of the crater ejecta momentum vector. Our results emphasize the need for asteroid characterization studies to bracket the range of target conditions expected at near-Earth asteroids while also highlighting some of the principal uncertainties associated with the kinetic-impact deflection strategy.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Microscopic ejecta measurements from hypervelocity impacts on aluminum and powdered regolith targets

Meteoroids and space debris pose a two-fold threat to spacecraft due to the risk of both mechanical damage from the impact and electrical damage from the impact-generated plasma, which produces electromagnetic emissions. Analysis of impact products, however, has the potential to provide useful information about planetary rings and small solar system bodies, such as asteroids and comets. Understanding the plasma dynamics and radiation mechanism is essential to addressing the impact threat and extracting science data from impacts. Charge attachment to condensed-phase debris may lead to a dusty plasma under certain conditions, so interpreting hypervelocity impacts requires knowledge of both the nature of the plasma and of the ejecta. We address the latter with measurements of the microscopic ejecta distribution produced by light gas gun impacts on solid aluminum and powdered regolith simulant targets. We examine both the size and shape of the ejecta using thin-film witness plates and find that the size distributions of microscopic ejecta follow power laws. Observations from the powdered regolith simulant match well with disruption experiments of solid basalt, while measurements from the aluminum impacts diverge from extrapolations based on studies of macroscopic debris. Analysis of the ejecta shape shows a transition from smooth to irregularly shaped ejecta at the material grain size, and the shape of debris may provide insight on the phase of the ejected material. Finally, based on our results, we predict a significant number of secondary impacts on plasma sensors due to ejecta, even at considerable distance from the target, supporting the hypothesis that charged dust affects plasma measurements in the ejecta curtain.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2013

Quantitative assessment of biological impact using transcriptomic data and mechanistic network models

Exposure to biologically active substances such as therapeutic drugs or environmental toxicants can impact biological systems at various levels, affecting individual molecules, signaling pathways, and overall cellular processes. The ability to derive mechanistic insights from the resulting system responses requires the integration of experimental measures with a priori knowledge about the system and the interacting molecules therein. We developed a novel systems biology-based methodology that leverages mechanistic network models and transcriptomic data to quantitatively assess the biological impact of exposures to active substances. Hierarchically organized network models were first constructed to provide a coherent framework for investigating the impact of exposures at the molecular, pathway and process levels. We then validated our methodology using novel and previously published experiments. For both in vitro systems with simple exposure and in vivo systems with complex exposures, our methodology was able to recapitulate known biological responses matching expected or measured phenotypes. In addition, the quantitative results were in agreement with experimental endpoint data for many of the mechanistic effects that were assessed, providing further objective confirmation of the approach. We conclude that our methodology evaluates the biological impact of exposures in an objective, systematic, and quantifiable manner, enabling the computation of a systems-wide and pan-mechanistic biological impact measure for a given active substance or mixture. Our results suggest that various fields of human disease research, from drug development to consumer product testing and environmental impact analysis, could benefit from using this methodology. - Highlights: • The impact of biologically active substances is quantified at multiple levels. • The systems-level impact integrates the perturbations of individual networks. • The networks capture the relationships between the biological mechanisms. • Four exposure experiments have been assessed to validate the methodology. • The impact results were consistent with the corresponding phenotypic measures.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2006

Deep Impact Autonomous Navigation : the trials of targeting the unknown

On July 4, 2005 at 05:44:34.2 UTC the Impactor Spacecraft (s/c) impacted comet Tempel 1 with a relative speed of 10.3 km/s capturing high-resolution images of the surface of a cometary nucleus just seconds before impact. Meanwhile, the Flyby s/c captured the impact event using both the Medium Resolution Imager (MRI) and the High Resolution Imager (HRI) and tracked the nucleus for the entire 800 sec period between impact and shield attitude transition. The objective of the Impactor s/c was to impact in an illuminated area viewable from the Flyby s/c and capture high-resolution context images of the impact site. This was accomplished by using autonomous navigation (AutoNav) algorithms and precise attitude information from the attitude determination and control subsystem (ADCS). The Flyby s/c had two primary objectives: 1) capture the impact event with the highest temporal resolution possible in order to observe the ejecta plume expansion dynamics; and 2) track the impact site for at least 800 sec to observe the crater formation and capture the highest resolution images possible of the fully developed crater. These two objectives were met by estimating the Flyby s/c trajectory relative to Tempel 1 using the same AutoNav algorithms along with precise attitude information from ADCS and independently selecting the best impact site. This paper describes the AutoNav system, what happened during the encounter with Tempel 1 and what could have happened.

impactor spacecraft↗
NASA NTRS2018

Fragment Size Distribution for Ice Particle Impacts on a Glass Plate

This work presents the results of an experimental study of ice particle impacts on a flat glass plate. The experiment was conducted at the Ballistics Impact Laboratory of NASA Glenn Research Center. The main objective of the experiment was to gain understanding about the modifications needed to the experimental configuration for a future parametric study at a larger range of values for particle diameters and other parameters. This was achieved by studying the effect of the velocity of an impacting ice particle on the post-impact fragment size and distribution for a reduced range of impacting particle diameters. Pre-impact particle diameter and velocity data were captured with a high-speed side camera. Post-impact fragment data were captured in a single frame with a 29-megapixel camera located above and normal to the target. Repeat runs were conducted for ice particles with diameters ranging from 1.7 to 2.9 millimeters, impacting at velocities between 39 and 98 meters per second. The fragment areas were measured, and the corresponding equivalent diameters and histogram distributions were calculated. Analysis of the data showed that the average equivalent diameter for the fragments in a run was an order of magnitude smaller than the diameter of the impacting ice particle. The histograms for equivalent diameter distribution were nonnormal with long tails, with most of the fragments having equivalent diameters concentrated toward the minimum value of the fragment size that could be resolved. Factors affecting the accuracy of the data during the digital imaging analysis were identified. Needed modifications to the setup to handle small size ice particles and other testing conditions were also identified.

engine icing↗
NASA NTRS2023

Modeling of Response of Thermoplastic Composites Under High Energy Impact

This work investigates the response of a thermoplastic panel under high energy ballistic impact. The composite material system is a carbon fiber reinforced low melt semi-crystalline resin TC1225 LMPAEK T700G (T700/LMPAEK3). Several high energy dynamic impact tests were performed where an aluminum projectile impacted various panels at different impact velocities. For this work, the test performed at an impact velocity of 73.2 m/s was investigated. The projectile rebounded upon impact, and the damage to the panel was characterized through ultrasonic and CT-scanning. Response of the panel under impact and the associated damage is discussed. Numerical simulation of the impact process was performed using the LS-DYNA® computer code [1] with a new material model MAT_COMPOSITE_DAMAGE_DGD (MAT 299), a modification over MAT 261 material model in terms of an improved representation of damage coupling and additional capability for strain rate effects. Delaminations were modeled using cohesive zone contact formulation in LS-DYNA®, wherein the mixed-mode fracture is captured via the Benzegaggh-Kenane (B-K) mode-dependent fracture energy interpolation law. Simulation of this impact test demonstrates a good match of results in terms of panel deflection and panel-projectile interactions. The overall extent of delaminations was under-predicted by the simulation. This work forms the basis to model tests performed at higher velocities, involving projectile penetration of panel.

Composite Materials↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Artemis 2 and Artemis 5 Model Outcomes Using the Impact Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool

BACKGROUND The Artemis campaign is a Moon exploration program with a series of six planned missions, five of which will be crewed. These five crewed missions will contain a single mission segment (space flight), or multiple mission segments involving space flight (Orion), lunar landing (LTV) and/or space habitat (Gateway). Each crewed segment faces the risk of unique medical conditions, necessitating medical sets/kits tailored to those specificities. To support and enable a data-driven and evidence-based decision-making process through out a mission’s life cycle, a software tool called IMPACT was developed. Using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies, IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a novel tool built for analyzing the possibility of encountering complex medical risks during space flight, and for identifying the medical resources and capabilities needed to treat those potential at-risk medical conditions. This presentation will seek to compare IMPACT’s computational results upon potential complex space medical conditions (e.g., sprain/strain back or sleep disturbance) using IMPACT’s risk metrics and the associated optimized medical sets/kits between two Artemis missions: single segment Artemis 2 and multi-segmented Artemis 5. OVERVIEW By identifying potential medical conditions in space using input criteria such as crew quantity and composition, certain crew physical characteristics, mission duration and mission activities, IMPACT can produce analyses on the type of medical resources and capabilities needed to produce an optimized medical set/kit to address those medical conditions. IMPACT achieves this by performing hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of missions to build aggregate pictures of medical risk. IMPACT’s risk metrics include loss of crew life (LOCL) – a measure of crew mortality due to medical conditions in space, return to definitive care (RTDC) – the need to perform crew evacuation, and task time lost (TTL) – a measure of the inability to perform activities due to crew disability. These risk metrics are applied to every medical condition identified by IMPACT’s computation analyses for every segment of the mission. Medical sets/kits are optimized to address these medical conditions but must fit within the stated Artemis Design Reference Mission (DRM) request for mass and volume physical size constraints. ANTICIPATED ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION Using two Artemis missions, Artemis 2 and Artemis 5, IMPACT will provide the analyses for comparison of medical set/kit contents based upon mass and/or volume requirements and identify the at-risk medical conditions within both missions. This paper serves as an initial exploration of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) medical risk calculations between two crewed Artemis missions and is not intended to be deemed the official medical response for the Artemis campaign.

probabilistic risk assessment↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of small mechanical wastewater treatment plants: Relative life cycle environmental impacts of construction and operations

Many slow growing and shrinking rural communities struggle with aging or inadequate wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), and face challenges in constructing and operating such facilities. Although existing literature has provided insight into the environmental sustainability of large facilities, including both the construction and operational phases, these studies have not examined small, rural facilities treating less than 7,000 m 3 /d (1.8 MGD) of wastewater in adequate depth and breadth. In this study, a detailed inventory of the construction and operational data for 16 case studies of small WWTPs was developed to elucidate their environmental life cycle impacts. Conventional LCA framework was followed. The results show that the environmental impacts of both the construction and operational phases are considerable. Operational impacts are highly related to energy usage. Improving energy efficiency of a plant may reduce the environmental impacts related to operations. Construction impacts can vary considerably between facilities. Process-related factors (e.g., concrete and reinforcing steel used in basins) are typically sized using the design flow; thus much of the variability in construction impacts among plants stems from the non-process related infrastructure. Multiple regression analysis was used as an exploratory tool to identify which non-process related plant aspects contribute to the variable environmental impact of small WWTPs. These factors include aluminum, cast iron, and the capacity utilization ratio (defined as the ratio of average flow to design flow). Furthermore, industry practitioners should consider these factors when aiming to reduce the environmental impacts of a small WWTP related to construction. Scenario sensitivity analyses found that the environmental impact of construction became smaller with longer design life, and the end-of-life consideration does not heavily influence the environmental sustainability of a WWTP.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2012

Residual microstructure and damage geometry associated with high speed impact crater in Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} and TiB{sub 2} particles reinforced 2024 Al composite

The resistance of Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} + TiB{sub 2}/2024Al composite to hypervelocity impact was tested by a two-stage light gas gun. The impact damage behaviors of the Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} + TiB{sub 2}/2024Al composite by different-sized Al projectiles with a velocity of 2.49 km/s and the residual microstructures associated with the crater impacted by a 1.2 mm aluminum projectile were investigated by transmission electron microscopy and high-resolution transmission electron microscopy. Both the diameters of craters at front face and spalling areas at back face increased with the aluminum projectile diameter. The diameter of perforation on the 2 mm thick Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} + TiB{sub 2}/Al composite target was zero when impacted by 1.2 mm aluminum projectile and it increased to 2.4 mm when the projectile diameter was 1.5 mm, indicating that the critical perforation diameter of the aluminum projectile was between 1.2 mm and 1.5 mm when the 2 mm thick Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} + TiB{sub 2}/Al composite target was impacted by 2.49 km/s aluminum projectiles. The diameter of perforation increases with the diameter of Al projectile. In addition, under each impact condition, the diameters of craters at front face were smaller than that of spalling areas at back face. Microstructure observations by transmission electron microscopy demonstrated four characteristics: stacking faults around TiB{sub 2} particle and dislocations within the TiB{sub 2} particle; twins in the Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} particle; recrystal grains in 2024 Al matrix; and mixture of amorphous microstructure and nanograins in the matrix. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Stacking faults were produced around the edge of TiB{sub 2} particle after impact. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Twins with the twin plane of (2{sup Macron }112) were observed in Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} particle after impact. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Recrystal grains with size of 100 nm were formed in aluminum matrix after impact. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Mixture of amorphous microstructure and nanograins was also found in matrix.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spatially and Temporally Explicit Life Cycle Environmental Impacts of Soybean Production in the U.S. Midwest

Quantifying the spatially and temporally explicit life cycle environmental impacts of crop production is critical for designing sustainable supply chains for biofuel and animal sectors. This study assessed life cycle environmental impacts of soybean production in around 1000 Midwest counties over 9 years. A combination of Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model and process-based life cycle assessment model was used to estimate the spatially and temporally explicit life cycle global warming (GW), eutrophication (EU) and acidification (AD) impacts. Sequentially, a machine learning approach was applied to identify the top influential factors among soil, climate and farming practices for spatially and temporally explicit life cycle environmental impacts. The results indicated that significant variations existed in life cycle environmental impacts among counties and across years. Life cycle GW impacts ranged from -11.4 to 22.0 kg CO2-eq. kg soybean-1, whereas life cycle EU and AD impacts varied by a factor of 302 and 44, respectively. Nitrogen application rates, temperature in March and soil texture were the top influencing factors for the spatial-temporal variations in life cycle GW impacts. In contrast, soil organic content and nitrogen application rate were the top influencing factors for the spatial-temporal variations in life cycle EU and AD impacts.

Soybean, life cycle analysis, sustainability, spat↗
DOE OSTI2014

Experimental sloshing pressure impacts in ensemble domain: Transient and stationary statistical characteristics

The present paper focuses on the analysis of impact pressure registrations from repeated model scale sloshing experiments under harmonic rotational excitation. A series of more than 100 experiments, each one encompassing more than 100 impact events, has been conducted seeking the highest feasible repeatability. Different excitation periods, that cover the main features of the impact dynamics, have been considered in a preliminary screening, describing the main features of the impact dynamics. Since, even under a nominally deterministic excitation, the pressure at each impact is characterized by a high variability, a statistical approach is used treating the impact pressure as a stochastic process. For one selected excitation period, the statistical analysis focuses on the ensemble distribution of the maximum pressure during each impact event. Particular attention is given to the evolution of such distributions, in order to detect the variations in the statistical characteristics of the process. This is achieved by, first, identifying the presence and the length of the transient phase and, second, by characterizing the process at stationary state. The statistics of impact pressure for different peaks are discussed mostly in the ensemble domain. Linking the latter with the time domain analysis is made by checking that the problem can be considered “practically ergodic.” The “practical ergodicity” of the process is dealt with by checking to what extent steady state ensemble statistical information can be obtained from a single long run experiment. Statistical checks for correlation and independence of maximum impact pressures are also carried out to test the hypothesis of independent identically distributed random variables. The method of analysis presented in this paper through the considered example case is general in nature and is considered to be highly portable. In particular, it is considered to allow for a more thorough understanding of non-deterministic events such as those considered herein, by looking at them from a sound statistical perspective. The thorough description of the whole experimental setup makes the presented data suitable for comparison purposes and for validation of theoretical/numerical approaches.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2015

WARM DEBRIS DISKS PRODUCED BY GIANT IMPACTS DURING TERRESTRIAL PLANET FORMATION

In our solar system, Mars-sized protoplanets frequently collided with each other during the last stage of terrestrial planet formation, called the giant impact stage. Giant impacts eject a large amount of material from the colliding protoplanets into the terrestrial planet region, which may form debris disks with observable infrared excesses. Indeed, tens of warm debris disks around young solar-type stars have been observed. Here we quantitatively estimate the total mass of ejected materials during the giant impact stages. We found that ∼0.4 times the Earth’s mass is ejected in total throughout the giant impact stage. Ejected materials are ground down by collisional cascade until micron-sized grains are blown out by radiation pressure. The depletion timescale of these ejected materials is determined primarily by the mass of the largest body among them. We conducted high-resolution simulations of giant impacts to accurately obtain the mass of the largest ejected body. We then calculated the evolution of the debris disks produced by a series of giant impacts and depleted by collisional cascades to obtain the infrared excess evolution of the debris disks. We found that the infrared excess is almost always higher than the stellar infrared flux throughout the giant impact stage (∼100 Myr) and is sometimes ∼10 times higher immediately after a giant impact. Therefore, giant impact stages would explain the infrared excess from most observed warm debris disks. The observed fraction of stars with warm debris disks indicates that the formation probability of our solar-system-like terrestrial planets is approximately 10%.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Correction and calibration of atmospheric impact observations in GOES GLM data

The Earth's atmosphere is impacted daily by both meteoroids and artificial objects. Calibrated observations of the emitted light at sufficiently high sampling rates can enable or improve the estimation of impactor attributes such as size, cohesion, trajectory, and composition, but are difficult to obtain owing to the unpredictability, brevity, and high dynamic (brightness) range of impacts. Ground-based camera systems have successfully monitored small regions of the atmosphere at video frame rates and with limited radiometric capabilities, but most impacts occur over the 70% of the Earth's surface covered by water and are therefore missed by these networks. The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) instruments aboard Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites 16 and 17 provide near-hemispherical coverage at 500 frames per second. These data have been shown to contain the signatures of many independently confirmed impacts, often from both viewing angles simultaneously, and constitute an observational resource that is currently unparalleled in the public domain. NASA's Asteroid Threat Assessment Project has implemented an automated impact detection pipeline that processes data from GLM daily. Given a detected impact, the GLM data contain a wealth of information for use in quantitative follow-up analyses. However, impact events differ from lightning in ways that violate key assumptions built into GLM's design. The result is that GLM's onboard processing introduces errors into pixel observations of impact events and the calibrated energies near the periphery of the detector may be substantially overestimated. We present methods for mitigating these and other issues to produce a data product more suitable for impact analyses than the existing GLM lightning product.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Verification and Validation of the FLAG Hydrocode for Impact Cratering Simulations

Verification and validation (V&V) are necessary processes to ensure accuracy of the computational methods used to solve problems key to vast numbers of applications and industries. Simulations are essential for addressing impact cratering problems, because these problems often exceed experimental capabilities. We show that the free Lagrange (FLAG) hydrocode, developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory (Los Alamos, NM), can be used for impact cratering simulations by verifying FLAG against two analytical models of aluminum-on-aluminum impacts at different impact velocities and validating FLAG against a glass-into-water laboratory impact experiment. Our verification results show good agreement with the theoretical maximum pressures, with relative errors as low in magnitude as 1.00%. Our validation results demonstrate FLAG's ability to model various stages of impact cratering, with crater radius relative errors as low as 3.48% and crater depth relative errors as low as 0.79%. Our mesh resolution study shows that FLAG converges at resolutions low enough to reduce the required computation time from about 28 h to about 25 min. We anticipate that FLAG can be used to model larger impact cratering problems with increased accuracy and decreased computational cost on current systems relative to other hydrocodes tested by Pierazzo et al. (2008, “Validation of Numerical Codes for Impact and Explosion Cratering: Impacts on Strengthless and Metal Targets,” MAPS, 43(12), pp. 1917–1938).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Analyzing The Impacts of the Biogas-to-Electricity Purchase Incentives on Electric Vehicle Deployment with the MA3T Vehicle Choice Model

This analysis represents the biogas-to-electricity pathway under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) as a point of purchase incentive and tests the impact of this incentive on EV deployment using a vehicle consumer choice model. The credit value generated under this policy was calculated in a number of scenarios based on electricity use of each power train choice on a yearly basis over the 15 year vehicle lifetime, accounting for the average electric vehicle miles travelled and vehicle efficiency, competition for biogas-derived electricity among electric vehicles (EVs), the RIN equivalence value and the time value of money. The credit value calculation in each of these scenarios is offered upfront as a point of purchase incentive for EVs using the Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies (MA3T) vehicle choice model, which tracks sales, fleet size and energy use over time. The majority of the scenarios use a proposed RIN equivalence value, which increases the credit value as a way to explore the analysis space. Additional model runs show the relative impact of the equivalence value on EV deployment. The MA3T model output shows that a consumer incentive accelerates the deployment of EVs for all scenarios relative to the baseline (no policy) case. In the scenario modeled to represent the current biogas-to-electricity generation capacity (15 TWh/year) with a 5.24kWh/RIN equivalence value, the policy leads to an additional 1.4 million plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and 3.5 million battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2025 beyond the no-policy case of 1.3 million PHEVs and 2.1 million BEVs when the full value of the credit is passed on to the consumer. In 2030, this increases to 2.4 million PHEVs and 7.3 million BEVs beyond the baseline. This larger impact on BEVs relative to PHEVs is due in part to the larger credit that BEVs receive in the model based on the greater percentage of electric vehicle miles traveled by BEVs relative to PHEVs. In this scenario 2025 also represents the last year in which biogas-derived electricity is able to fully supply the transportation electricity demand in the model. After 2025, the credit value declines on a per vehicle basis. At the same time a larger fraction of the credit may shift towards biogas producers in order to incent additional biogas production. The expanded 41 TWh/year biogas availability scenarios represent an increase beyond today s generation capacity and allow greater eRIN generation. With a 5.24kWh/RIN equivalence value, when all of the credit is directed towards reducing vehicle purchase prices, the 41 TWh/year biogas scenario results in 4.1 million additional PHEVs and 12.2 million additional BEVs on the road in 2030 beyond the baseline of 2.5 million PHEVs and 6.1 million BEVs. Under this expanded biogas capacity, biogas-derived electricity generation is able to fully supply electricity for a fleet of over 21 million EVs (15.6 million BEVs and 5.8 million PHEVs) on a yearly basis. In addition to assessing the full value credit scenarios described above, multiple scenarios were analyzed to determine the impact if only a fraction of the credit value was passed on to the consumer. In all of these cases, the EV deployment was scaled back as the fraction of the credit that was passed on to the consumer was reduced. These scenarios can be used to estimate the impact if the credit value is reduced in other ways as well, as demonstrated by the scenarios where the current (22.6 kWh/RIN) equivalence value was used. The EV deployment that results from an equivalence value of 22.6 kWh/RIN equivalence value is roughly equivalent to the EV deployment observed in the 25% case using the 5.24 kWh/RIN equivalence value. A higher equivalence value means that a smaller number of credits, and therefore value, is created for each kWh, and therefore the impact on EV deployment is reduced. This analysis shows several of the drivers that will impact eRIN generation and credit value, and tests the impact of an eRIN point of purchase incentive on EV deployment. This additional incentive can accelerate the deployment of EVs when it is used to reduce vehicle purchase prices. However, the ultimate impact of this policy, as modeled here, will be determined by future RIN prices, the extent to which eRIN credit value can be passed on to the consumer as a point of purchase incentive and the equivalence value.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Impacts of Variable Renewable Energy on Bulk Power System Assets, Pricing, and Costs

We synthesize available literature, data, and analysis on the degree to which growth in variable renewable energy (VRE) has impacted to date or might in the future impact bulk power system assets, pricing, and costs. We do not analyze impacts on specific power plants, instead focusing on national and regional system-level trends. The issues addressed are highly context dependent—affected by the underlying generation mix of the system, the amount of wind and solar penetration, and the design and structure of the bulk power system in each region. Moreover, analyzing the impacts of VRE on the bulk power system is a complex area of research and there is much more to be done to increase understanding of how VRE impacts the dynamics of current and future electricity markets. While more analysis is warranted, including additional location-specific assessments, several high-level findings emerge from this synthesis: -VRE Is Already Impacting the Bulk Power Market -VRE Impacts on Average Wholesale Prices Have Been Modest -VRE Impacts on Power Plant Retirements Have So Far Been Limited -VRE Impacts on the Bulk Power Market will Grow with Penetration -The ’System Value’ of VRE will Decline with Penetration -Power System Flexibility Can Reduce the Rate of VRE Value Decline All generation types are unique in some respect—bringing benefits and challenges to the power system—and wholesale markets, industry investments, and operational procedures have evolved over time to manage the characteristics of a changing generation fleet. With increased VRE penetrations, power system planners, operators, regulators, and policymakers will continue to be challenged to develop methods to smoothly and cost-effectively manage the reliable integration of these new and growing sources of electricity supply.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Applying Non-Energy Impacts from Other Jurisdictions in Cost-Benefit Analyses of Energy Efficiency Programs: Resources for States for Utility Customer-Funded Programs

Avoided energy and capacity costs are the primary yardstick utilities use to determine which energy efficiency programs are cost-effective for their customers. But sometimes "non-energy impacts" — not commonly recognized as directly associated with energy generation, transmission and distribution — represent substantial benefits, such as improving comfort, air quality and public health. Considering whether and how to include non-energy impacts is an important part of cost-benefit analyses for these programs. This report offers practical considerations for deciding which non-energy impacts to include and how to apply values or methods from other jurisdictions. Researchers reviewed studies quantifying non-energy impacts used in 30 states and applied a five-point system to indicate transferability of a value or method from each study for 16 categories of non-energy impacts: Water resource costs and benefits; Other fuels costs and benefits; Avoided environmental compliance costs; Environmental impacts; Productivity; Health and safety; Asset value; Energy and/or capacity price suppression effects; Avoided costs of compliance with Renewable Portfolio Standard requirements; Avoided credit and collection costs; Avoided ancillary services; Comfort; Economic development and job impacts; Public health impacts; Energy security impacts; Increased reliability. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Building Technologies Office supported this work.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

CLimate Impact: Determining Etiology thRough pAthways (CLDERA)

Climate impacts have broad economic, health, political, and national security ramifications. Societally relevant impacts are typically farther downstream, are the product of multiple interacting processes, and can arise over small regions and timeframes because their sources are short-term and localized. Short-term forcings (as can be seen in volcanic eruptions, climatic tipping points (e.g., the collapse of rainforests or the disappearance of sea ice), or in increasingly plausible climate interventions) fundamentally possess low signal-to-noise and could benefit from accounting for the multiple conditional processes through which a downstream impact arises. Under the Grand Challenge LDRD CLDERA (CLimate impacts: Discovering Etiology thRough pAthways), we have developed tools to enable downstream impact attribution from geographically and temporally localized source forcings in the climate. CLDERA developed methods that can distinguish how a localized source drives the climate system to respond with particular impacts. The how is embodied in pathways – the spatio-temporally evolving chain of physical processes that connects a source to a series of increasingly distant impacts. Novel analytic methods in pursuit of downstream impact attribution were developed and demonstrated on simulations and observations of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. As described within this report we have • developed stratospheric expertise and aerosol modeling capabilities in E3SM, • created original methods to detect and model pathways from source-to-impact, and • advanced climate attribution through novel methods, cases, and approaches. Further, CLDERA developed a tiered verification process consisting of controlled datasets to prototype, verify, and refine the original method development. CLDERA increased Sandia’s footprint in the climate analytics community and developed new climate collaborations whilst also creating a cadre of climate analysts at Sandia. The products from CLDERA have been extensive with a total of 9 journal articles published, 12 articles submitted and under review, and an additional 8 articles in preparation. We have produced 1750 simulated years and developed 9 code-bases. This report details these accomplishments and serves as a summary of the work completed during the CLDERA Grand Challenge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗