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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Determining the Most Influencing Medical Conditions in MEDPRAT’s SIN Directed Graph

INTRODUCTION: The Susceptibility Inference Network (SIN) is a network of medical conditions, part of the Medical Extensible Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) developed by NASA to assess human health and medical risk to space exploration missions. The SIN is subject matter expert informed and acts as a prototype that provides relationships and dependencies between events modeled by MEDPRAT. Each vertex in the SIN has a weight which evaluates the severity of having the condition regardless of the progression from or to that condition. In this presentation, we consider two statistics to measure that stand alone risk: Quality Time Lost (QTL) and Loss of Crew Life (LOCL). Our goal is to identify the medical conditions that contribute the most to crew members QTL and LOCL risks due to progression of conditions in the network. We investigate how different computation parameters result in different condition rankings and address the choice of parameters that allows appropriate interventions to ensure space mission success. METHODS: The Katz score, one of many centrality measures created for ranking purposes in network analysis, takes into account all possible walks through the network, penalizing each additional step in a walk by a factor α called the Katz parameter. The literature does not provide specific values for the choice of α. We derive an analytical relationship between α and the maximum path length which has influence on the Katz score and ranking. Based on the probability of progression of each condition in the SIN, we identify that maximum path length of interest and calculate α that is then used in the Katz formula to rank the conditions in the SIN. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: The effective probabilities of the SIN matrix generally fall below 10−6, which is below the level of the least influencing condition in the set. This corresponds to the probability of at most six consecutive progressions of a condition. Consequently, we calculate the Katz Parameter α and get 0.32. We rank the medical conditions and find that Acute Radiation Symptom is the condition the most prone to contribute to quality time loss due to progression.

risk analysis↗

NASA NTRS1998

Tribometer for Lubrication Studies in Vacuum

The NASA Lewis Research Center has developed a new way to evaluate the liquid lubricants used in ball bearings in space mechanisms. For this evaluation, a liquid lubricant is exercised in the rolling contact vacuum tribometer shown in the photo. This tribometer, which is essentially a thrust bearing with three balls and flat races, has contact stresses similar to those in a typical preloaded, angular contact ball bearing. The rotating top plate drives the balls in an outward-winding spiral orbit instead of a circular path. Upon contact with the "guide plate," the balls are forced back to their initial smaller orbit radius; they then repeat this spiral orbit thousands of times. The orbit rate of the balls is low enough, 2 to 5 rpm, to allow the system to operate in the boundary lubrication regime that is most stressful to the liquid lubricant. This system can determine the friction coefficient, lubricant lifetime, and species evolved from the liquid lubricant by tribodegradation. The lifetime of the lubricant charge is only few micrograms, which is "used up" by degradation during rolling. The friction increases when the lubricant is exhausted. The species evolved by the degrading lubricant are determined by a quadrupole residual gas analyzer that directly views the rotating elements. The flat races (plates) and 0.5-in.-diameter balls are of a configuration and size that permit easy post-test examination by optical and electron microscopy and the full suite of modern surface and thin-film chemical analytical techniques, including infrared and Raman microspectroscopy and x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. In addition, the simple sphere-on-a-flat-plate geometry allows an easy analysis of the contact stresses at all parts of the ball orbit and an understanding of the frictional energy losses to the lubricant. The analysis showed that when the ball contacts the guide plate, gross sliding occurs between the ball and rotating upper plate as the ball forced back to a smaller orbit radius. The friction force due to gross sliding is sensed by the piezoelectric force transducer behind the guide plate and furnishes the coefficient of friction for the system. This tribometer has been used to determine the relative lifetimes of Fomblin Z-25, a lubricant often used in space mechanisms, as a function of the material of the plates against which it was run. The balls were 440C steel in all cases; the plate materials were aluminum, chromium (Cr), 440C steel (17 wt % Cr), and 4150 steel (1 wt % Cr). As shown in the bar graph, the lifetime is greatest for the plate material with least chromium, thus implicating chromium as a tribochemically active element attacking Fomblin Z-25.

Pepper, Stephen V.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hypergraph Analytics of Domain Name System Relationships

We report on the use of novel mathematical methods in hypergraph analytice over a large quantity of DNS data. Hypergraphs generalize graphs, as used in network science, to better model complex multiway relations in cyber data. Specifically, casting DNS data from Georgia Tech's ActiveDNS repository as hypergraphs allows us to fully represent the interactions between {\em collections} of domains and IP addresses. To facilitate large-scale analytics, we fielded an analytical pipeline of two capabilities. HyperNetX (HNX) is a Python package for the exploration and visualization of hypergraphs, acting as a frontend. For the backend, the Chapel HyperGraph Library (CHGL) is a library for high performance hypergraph analytics written in the exascale programming language Chapel. CHGL was used to process gigascale DNS data, performing compute-intensive calculations for data reduction and segmentation. Identified portions are then sent to HNX for both exploratory analysis and knowledge discovery targeting known tactics, techniques, and procedures.

Joslyn, Cliff A.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

This technical paper documents Kennedy Space Centers Independent Assessment team work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer (CSO) and GSDO management during key programmatic reviews. The assessments provided the GSDO Program with an analysis of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, the team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedys Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB).Based on the composite survivability versus time graphs from the first two assessments, there was a soft knee in the Figure of Merit graphs at eight minutes (ten minutes after egress ordered). Thus, the graphs illustrated to the decision makers that the final emergency egress design selected should have the capability of transporting the flight crew from the top of LC 39B to a safe location in eight minutes or less. Results for the third assessment were dominated by hazards that were classified as instantaneous in nature (e.g. stacking mishaps) and therefore had no effect on survivability vs time to egress the VAB. VAB emergency scenarios that degraded over time (e.g. fire) produced survivability vs time graphs that were line with aerospace industry norms.

Joyner, James J., Sr.↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Scale‐Adaptive Urban Hydrologic Framework: Incorporating Network‐Level Storm Drainage Pipes Representation

Abstract Below‐ground urban stormwater networks (BUSNs) significantly influence urban flood dynamics, yet their representation at the watershed or larger scales remains challenging. We introduce a scalable urban hydrologic framework that centers on a novel network‐level BUSN representation, balancing the needs for physical basis, parameter parsimony, and computational efficiency. Our framework conceptualizes an urban watershed into four interacting zones: hillslopes (natural), storm‐sewersheds (urban), a sub‐network channel (tributaries), and a main channel. We develop an innovative Graph Theory‐based algorithm to derive network‐level BUSN parameters from publicly available datasets, enabling efficient, scalable parameterization. We demonstrate this framework's applicability at nine representative watersheds in the Houston metropolitan region, USA, with urban imperviousness ranging from 0% to 64% and drainage areas ranging from 24 to 302 . Our model achieves satisfying computational efficiency, completing hourly time step simulations for 18 years in less than 5 sec per watershed on a standard PC. Validation against observed daily streamflow confirms that the model can capture small‐to‐large flood peaks and seasonal and annual water balance over these watersheds. Comparisons with the National Water Model show better performance in predicting flood peaks and overall water balance, underscoring the promises of our new framework for urban hydrologic modeling at large scales. Furthermore, analysis reveals nonlinear relationships between BUSNs' designed capacities and flood reduction effects. Our approach bridges the gap between detailed hydraulic and large‐scale hydrologic models, providing a valuable tool for urban flood prediction and management across broader spatial and temporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Refined views of ancient ocean chemistry: Tracking trace element incorporation in pyrite framboids using atom probe tomography

The trace element chemistry of pyrite can be used to determine the origin, timing, and conditions of formation of ore deposits; as a vectoring tool for mineral exploration; and to determine the evolution of the Earth’s oceanic and atmospheric chemistry. However, little is known about whether trace elements are held with the pyrite structure or within nano-inclusions of other phases. This distinction is important for two primary reasons. First, trace element incorporation into the pyrite structure can affect the partitioning of other trace elements. Second, if trace elements are held within nano-inclusions, the partition coefficient of the mineral phases that make up the nano-inclusion, rather than pyrite, are the critical consideration in related interpretations. Previous studies addressing this topic have used laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry; however, the resulting data do not provide sufficient spatial resolution to delineate trace element distributions unless the inclusions are large. Further, they use these flat element profiles in time resolved laser ablation output graphs to argue that pyrite trace element content provides a direct relationship between trace element content of seawater and pyrite trace element content. To improve resolution, we have used atom probe tomography to characterize trace element distributions in pyrite framboids from the Cariaco Basin and Demerara Rise in three-dimensions at sub-nanometer resolution. Manganese was found to be concentrated in the pyrite nanocrystal part of the original framboid structure. In contrast, Ni was mostly found along the grain boundary, though it still appeared to be contained within the pyrite structure. Copper was concentrated in later pyrite overgrowths, and As varied in its location. These observations suggest that some important trace elements are incorporated into pyrite during early diagenesis, even in euxinic settings dominated by water-column pyrite formation. Statistical analysis was used to determine whether trace elements were incorporated in the lattice or within nanoscale inclusions (referred to here are nano-inclusions). We found that As, Ni, Cu, and Mn were commonly held within the pyrite structure, but As, Ni, and Cu can also be held as nano-inclusions or within grain interfaces. Incorporation of As is known to enhance the incorporation of other trace elements and in this case appears to correlated to elevated Ni and Cu concentrations in the Cariaco Basin samples. Furthermore, understanding these relationships strongly impacts our ability to utilize pyrite trace metal concentrations to analyze and quantify early ocean chemistry and its evolution through time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1990

Stability analysis of spacecraft power systems

The problems in applying standard electric utility models, analyses, and algorithms to the study of the stability of spacecraft power conditioning and distribution systems are discussed. Both single-phase and three-phase systems are considered. Of particular concern are the load and generator models that are used in terrestrial power system studies, as well as the standard assumptions of load and topological balance that lead to the use of the positive sequence network. The standard assumptions regarding relative speeds of subsystem dynamic responses that are made in the classical transient stability algorithm, which forms the backbone of utility-based studies, are examined. The applicability of these assumptions to a spacecraft power system stability study is discussed in detail. In addition to the classical indirect method, the applicability of Liapunov's direct methods to the stability determination of spacecraft power systems is discussed. It is pointed out that while the proposed method uses a solution process similar to the classical algorithm, the models used for the sources, loads, and networks are, in general, more accurate. Some preliminary results are given for a linear-graph, state-variable-based modeling approach to the study of the stability of space-based power distribution networks.

Halpin, S. M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Randomized Algorithms for Symmetric Nonnegative Matrix Factorization

Symmetric Nonnegative Matrix Factorization (SymNMF) is a technique in data analysis and machine learning that approximates a matrix with a product of a nonnegative, low-rank matrix and it transpose. To design faster and more scalable algorithms for SymNMF we develop two randomized algorithms for its computation. The first method uses randomized matrix sketching to compute an initial low-rank approximation to the input matrix and proceeds to uses this as a low-rank input to rapidly compute a SymNMF. The second methods uses randomized leverage score sampling to approximately solve constrained least squares problems. Many successful methods for SymNMF rely on (approximately) solving sequences of constrained least squares problems. Here, we prove theoretically that leverage score sampling can approximately solve constrained least squares problems to e-accuracy. Finally we demonstrate both methods work in practice by applying them to graph clustering tasks on large real world data sets. These experiments show that our methods approximately maintain solution quality and achieve significant speed ups for both large dense and large sparse problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measurement-Based Approach for Inertia-Trend Analysis of the US Western Interconnection

Rising deployment of inverter-based resources (IBRs), characterized by a lack of rotating mass, is decreasing the total inertia of the system. This can lead to an increased Rate of Change of Frequency (RoCoF) during the disturbance and false activation of protective devices. There is a need to assess the inertia over the past decade amidst the evolving landscape of renewable energy sources to develop strategies for integrating energy storage, enhancing resilience measures, and ensuring the stable and reliable operation of the grid. Therefore, a realistic assessment of the inertia trend using a measurement-based approach that addresses the limitations of existing models is proposed. An inertia study of the Western Interconnection in the United States is performed utilizing the data from 2013 to 2022, obtained from FNET/ GridEye network. The three-second RoCoF time window is chosen for the study as it showed an optimum balance between a strong correlation with the power imbalance (ΔP) and minimum inclusion of primary response from governor. The obtained inertia trend result shows a small percentage declination of inertia over the decade. By examining the result alongside a generation mix graph, insights are gained into the dynamic interplay between shifting energy landscape and system inertia.

Dulal, Saurav↗

NASA NTRS1985

IUE and optical spectral scans of U Sagittae - An analysis and comparison with U Cephei

Recent optical and ultraviolet observations of U Sge are presented, and the results are compared with observations of U Cephei. The observations were carried out with: the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) satellite; with the ITS scanner of the Lick Observatory; and with a Varo image-tube camera attached to a coude spectrograph. Comparison with data for U Ceph showed that U Sge is of the B7.5 V spectral type with an effective temperature of 12,250 + or 250 K, and a surface gravity of 3.9 + or - 0.1 log g. The secondary component of U Sge appears to be of the G4 III-IV spectral type. The best estimate for the distance of U Sge was 295 + or - 20 pc. Emission lines of the W Serpentis type were found in the IUE spectrum for U Sge. Although the observed fluxes for the lines were low, the powers were half as strong as those observed in U Cep. Selected emission lines of Fe II, Si II, and Si III were also found assuming solar abundances. A complete summary of the IUE and optical data is provided in a series of graphs and tables.

Dobias, J. J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Efficient Topology Design Algorithms for Power Grid Stability

The dynamic response of power grids to small disturbances influences their overall stability. This letter examines the effect of network topology on the linearized time-invariant dynamics of electric power systems. The proposed framework utilizes H 2 -norm based stability metrics to study the optimal placement of lines on existing networks as well as the topology design of new networks. The design task is first posed as an NP-hard mixed-integer nonlinear program (MINLP) that is exactly reformulated as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) using McCormick linearization. To improve computation time, graph-theoretic properties are exploited to derive valid inequalities (cuts) and tighten bounds on the continuous optimization variables. Moreover, a cutting plane generation procedure is put forth that is able to interject the MILP solver and augment additional constraints to the problem on-the-fly. Finally, the efficacy of our approach in designing optimal grid topologies is demonstrated through numerical tests on the IEEE 39-bus network.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1998

1-D Transient Thermal Modeling of an Ablative Material (MCC-1) Exposed to a Simulated Convective Titan 4 Launch Environment

The purpose of the work is to demonstrate that the flat test panel substrate temperatures are consistent with analysis predictions for MCC-1 applied to a aluminum substrate. The testing was performed in an aerothermal facility on samples of three different thicknesses of MCC-1 on an aluminum substrate. The results of the test were compared with a Transient Thermal model. The key assumptions of the Transient Thermal model were: (1) a one-dimensional heat transfer; (2) a constant ablation recession rate (determined from pre and post-test measurements); (3) ablation temperature of 540 degrees F; (4) Char left behind the ablation front; and (5) temperature jump correction for incident heat transfer coefficient. Two methods were used to model the heating of bare MCC-1: (1) Directly input surface temperature as a function of time; and (2) Aerothermal heating using calibration plate data and subtracting the radiation losses to tunnel walls. The results are presented as graphs. This article is presented in Viewgraph format.

Reinarts, Thomas R.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Project-domain Science Traceability and Alignment Framework (P-STAF): Analysis of a Payload Architecture

Large science-focused space missions often have multiple instruments working together to address broad science goals. Systems engineers on these types of projects must work with the project scientists to evaluate trades and make decisions that result in a system that efficiently serves the mission science goals. This collaboration is more effective if the systems engineers understand both the traceability from the L1 customer requirements to the selected instruments and the contributions of each instrument in the context of the whole payload suite. These relationships might be understood implicitly by the science team on a project, but there is value in formally codifying them so this understanding can be accessed and formally analyzed by a broader systems engineering effort. We first described a framework for this communication, called the Project-domain Science Traceability and Alignment Framework (P-STAF), in the IEEE 2017 paper “A Framework for Extending the Science Traceability Matrix: Application to the Planned Europa Mission.” This paper shows how that basic framework can be leveraged to not only formally capture these relationships between the instruments and the customer needs, but also how that information can be codified in an analyzable graph that can be queried to provide a better understanding of mission risks and scope. This work was drawn from the application of P-STAF to the Europa Clipper mission, but generic example networks are used to illustrate the power of this technique.

Reinholtz, Kirk↗

NASA NTRS1978

Analysis/design of strip reinforced random composites (strip hybrids)

Advanced analysis methods and composite mechanics were applied to a strip-reinforced random composite square panel with fixed ends to illustrate the use of these methods for the a priori assessment of the composite panel when subjected to complex loading conditions. The panel was assumed to be of E-glass random composite. The strips were assumed to be of three advanced unidirectional composites to cover a range of low, intermediate, and high modulus stiffness. The panels were assumed to be subjected to complex loadings to assess their adequacy as load-carrying members in auto body, aircraft engine nacelle and windmill blade applications. The results show that strip hybrid panels can be several times more structurally efficient than the random composite base materials. Some of the results are presented in graphical form and procedures are described for use of these graphs as guides for preliminary design of strip hybrids.

Chamis, C. C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Non-Electricity Based Renewable Fuels: Theory and Computation for Solar Thermochemical Hydrogen

Dominated by photovoltaics and wind, current renewable energy sources generate mostly electricity, but 80% of the global final energy consumption occurs in form of fuels. Therefore, direct solar fuel generation would be a major breakthrough for the energy transition. Solar thermochemical hydrogen (STCH) is one of the very few potential routes towards scalable renewable fuels, but currently suffers from lack of an oxide working material that could optimally perform energy conversion within the thermodynamic boundary conditions. Theory and computation can contribute in two distinct ways, through materials search and discovery, but also by providing detailed mechanistic models for specific systems so to advance our understanding of possible design strategies. To enable high-throughput materials screening, we developed a defect graph neural network (dGNN) machine learning approach,[1] which accelerates the prediction of defect formation energies by replacing the tedious density functional theory (DFT) supercell calculations for all possible defect sites. This approach enables high-throughput database screening of oxides, which was integrated with thermodynamic modeling to extract the reduction entropies as additional selection criterion for STCH. Once potential candidate materials are identified, detailed models can guide materials design by predicting performance characteristics. One challenge is to quantitatively predict thermochemical equilibria at high concentrations when the redox active defects start to interact with each other, thereby impeding the formation of additional defects. Introducing a model for the free energy of defect interaction, parametrized on the basis of DFT data, we simulated the complete STCH redox cycle for (Sr,Ce)MnO3 alloys, achieving near-quantitative agreement with experimental data.[2] The analysis of these simulations reveals how defect interactions diminish the reduction entropy and H2 yield, suggesting to include these interactions in design considerations. Finally, we revisit the popular van't Hoff method for analyzing reduction enthalpies and entropies. This method is not ideal, as it involves a temperature-dependent convolution of gas-phase and solid-state entropies, causing uncertainties in the same order of magnitude as the physical quantities of interest. To avoid this problem, we suggest a simple alternative approach which can be applied to experimental and simulated data alike.

first-principles calculations↗

DOE OSTI2026

PowerModelsGAT-AI: Physics-Informed Graph Attention for Multi-System Power Flow With Continual Learning

Solving the alternating current power flow equations in real time is essential for secure grid operation, yet classical Newton–Raphson solvers can be slow under stressed conditions. Existing graph neural networks for power flow are typically trained on a single system and often degrade on different systems. We present PowerModelsGAT-AI, a physics-informed graph attention network that predicts bus voltages and generator injections. The model uses bus-type-aware masking to handle different bus types and balances multiple loss terms, including a power-mismatch penalty, using learned weights. We evaluate the model on 14 benchmark systems (4 to 6,470 buses) and train a unified model on 13 of these under contingency conditions with up to two branch outages, achieving an average normalized mean absolute error of 0.89% for voltage magnitudes and R 2 >0.99 for voltage angles. We also show continual learning: when adapting a base model to a new 1,354-bus system, standard fine-tuning causes severe forgetting with error increases exceeding 1000% on base systems, while our experience replay and elastic weight consolidation strategy keeps error increases below 2% and in some cases improves base-system performance. Interpretability analysis shows that learned attention weights correlate with physical branch parameters (susceptance: r=0.38 ; thermal limits: r=0.22 ), and feature importance analysis supports that the model captures established power flow relationships.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1978

Analysis/design of strip reinforced random composites /strip hybrids/

Results are described which were obtained by applying advanced analysis methods and composite mechanics to a strip-reinforced random composite square panel with fixed ends. This was done in order to illustrate the use of these methods for the apriori assessment of the composite panel when subjected to complex loading conditions. The panel was assumed to be of E-Glass/Random Composite. The strips were assumed to be of three advanced unidirectional composites to cover a range of low, intermediate, and high modulus stiffness. The panels were assumed to be subjected to complex loadings to assess their adequacy as load-carrying members in auto body, aircraft engine nacelle, and windmill blade applications. The results show that strip hybrid panels can be several times more structurally efficient than the random composite base materials. Some of the results are presented in graphical form and procedures are described for use of these graphs as guides for preliminary design of strip hybrids.

Chamis, C. C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Automated Generation of Weather and Climate Analysis Products

Wind roses are an important part to site operations as they depict the wind speed and direction percentage over a time period. In this project, I automated the production of wind roses for SRS meteorological towers. I developed a script to sequence through the dataset by period and create a wind rose for each of those period sets. Graphics were generated for every 4-hour period of the day, for each of the 4 heights of the instruments, for every half of each month. A 10-year climatological period consisted of wind speed and directions measurements at 15-minute intervals. We used the years 2014-2024 as the wind instruments on the tower were upgraded to sonic anemometers in early 2014. I then compared these wind roses to those from a previous study done in 2003 to analyze the differences and similarities in the wind patterns. The wind roses are also used to understand environmental transport conditions at SRS. When comparing the different heights of the anemometers to the 2003 report, there is a similarity in the fact that the direction is relatively the same across the levels, with the wind speeds increasing as you get higher in the air. When comparing the season of our graphs against the 2003 report, we noticed that the winter and summer months appear to have very similar wind directions. However, in the spring we noticed that there were more southerly winds compared to the 2003 report which had more westerly winds. Finally, in the fall months, we noticed that there was a higher percentage of northeasterly winds, while the 2003 report showed more southeasterly winds. We can use these summaries to estimate the directional dependence of dose that the surrounding areas receive throughout the year according to time of day.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗