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NASA NTRS1998

Computational Model of Human and System Dynamics in Free Flight: Studies in Distributed Control Technologies

This paper presents a set of studies in full mission simulation and the development of a predictive computational model of human performance in control of complex airspace operations. NASA and the FAA have initiated programs of research and development to provide flight crew, airline operations and air traffic managers with automation aids to increase capacity in en route and terminal area to support the goals of safe, flexible, predictable and efficient operations. In support of these developments, we present a computational model to aid design that includes representation of multiple cognitive agents (both human operators and intelligent aiding systems). The demands of air traffic management require representation of many intelligent agents sharing world-models, coordinating action/intention, and scheduling goals and actions in a potentially unpredictable world of operations. The operator-model structure includes attention functions, action priority, and situation assessment. The cognitive model has been expanded to include working memory operations including retrieval from long-term store, and interference. The operator's activity structures have been developed to provide for anticipation (knowledge of the intention and action of remote operators), and to respond to failures of the system and other operators in the system in situation-specific paradigms. System stability and operator actions can be predicted by using the model. The model's predictive accuracy was verified using the full-mission simulation data of commercial flight deck operations with advanced air traffic management techniques.

Corker, Kevin M.↗
NASA NTRS2013

The NASA-Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling Framework - Land Information System: Global Land/atmosphere Interaction with Resolved Convection

The present generation of general circulation models (GCM) use parameterized cumulus schemes and run at hydrostatic grid resolutions. To improve the representation of cloud-scale moist processes and landeatmosphere interactions, a global, Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) coupled to the Land Information System (LIS) has been developed at NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center. The MMFeLIS has three components, a finite-volume (fv) GCM (Goddard Earth Observing System Ver. 4, GEOS-4), a 2D cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble, GCE), and the LIS, representing the large-scale atmospheric circulation, cloud processes, and land surface processes, respectively. The non-hydrostatic GCE model replaces the single-column cumulus parameterization of fvGCM. The model grid is composed of an array of fvGCM gridcells each with a series of embedded GCE models. A horizontal coupling strategy, GCE4fvGCM4Coupler4LIS, offered significant computational efficiency, with the scalability and I/O capabilities of LIS permitting landeatmosphere interactions at cloud-scale. Global simulations of 2007e2008 and comparisons to observations and reanalysis products were conducted. Using two different versions of the same land surface model but the same initial conditions, divergence in regional, synoptic-scale surface pressure patterns emerged within two weeks. The sensitivity of largescale circulations to land surface model physics revealed significant functional value to using a scalable, multi-model land surface modeling system in global weather and climate prediction.

cumulus schemes↗
NASA NTRS2014

Interval Predictor Models with a Formal Characterization of Uncertainty and Reliability

This paper develops techniques for constructing empirical predictor models based on observations. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single predicted output at each value of the model's inputs, Interval Predictors Models (IPM) yield an interval into which the unobserved output is predicted to fall. The IPMs proposed prescribe the output as an interval valued function of the model's inputs, render a formal description of both the uncertainty in the model's parameters and of the spread in the predicted output. Uncertainty is prescribed as a hyper-rectangular set in the space of model's parameters. The propagation of this set through the empirical model yields a range of outputs of minimal spread containing all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations. Optimization-based strategies for calculating IPMs and eliminating the effects of outliers are proposed. Outliers are identified by evaluating the extent by which they degrade the tightness of the prediction. This evaluation can be carried out while the IPM is calculated. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization program used for calculating the IPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex program), the model's reliability (that is, the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted range of outputs) can be bounded rigorously by a non-asymptotic formula.

Crespo, Luis G.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assessment of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Products Using a Coupled ENSO Prediction Model

Much work has gone into revising and updating algorithms for converting satellite-measured radiances to useful ocean variables like sea surface salinity (e.g. SMOS - Boutin et al., 2017, SMAP - Fore et al., 2016 and Aquarius - Meissner et al., 2018). As part of our Ocean Salinity Science Team work, we utilize an intermediate-complexity air/sea coupled model as a transfer function to test if more mature satellite SSS model algorithms actually improve ENSO forecast skill. For initialization of the coupled forecast, we demonstrate that the positive impact of SSS assimilation is brought about by surface freshening near the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool and density changes that lead to shallower mixed layer between 10S-5N. In addition, salting near the ITCZ leads to a deepening of the mixed layer and thermocline near 8N. These patterns together provide the background state to amplify equatorial Kelvin waves and improve ENSO hindcasts (Hackert et al., 2019). Here we extend this work to compare the impact of various pairs of original and improved satellite SSS algorithms. For instance we compare SMAP V4.1 with the latest, SMAP V4.2, to see what impact algorithm improvements may have on ENSO forecasts. SSS observations are tested on seasonal to interannual variability of tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean dynamics as well as on dynamical ENSO forecasts by initializing twelve-month forecasts for each month of available data. All experiments assimilate satellite sea level (SL), sea surface temperature (SST), and in situ subsurface temperature and salinity observations (Tz, Sz). Additionally various satellite, blended, and in-situ SSS products are assimilated. We find that including satellite SSS significantly improves Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly validation, more mature SSS model algorithms are generally improving ENSO forecasts over time, and more satellite SSS data coverage helps to extend useful forecasts.

Ocean↗
NASA NTRS1998

Submillimeter Imaging of Dust Around Main Sequence Stars

This grant was to image circumstellar dust disks surrounding main-sequence stars. The delivery of the SCUBA detector we had planned to use for this work was delayed repeatedly, leading us to undertake a majority of the observations with the UKT14 submillimeter detector at the JCMT (James Clerk Maxwell Telescope) and optical imagers and a coronagraph at the University of Hawaii 2.2-m telescope. Major findings under this grant include: (1) We discovered 5 asymmetries in the beta Pictoris regenerated dust disk. The discovery of these asymmetries was a surprise, since smearing due to Keplerian shear should eliminate most such features on timescales of a few thousand years. One exception is the "wing tilt" asymmetry, which we interpret as due to the scattering phase function of dust disk particles. From the wing tilt and a model of the phase function, we find a disk plane inclination to the line of sight of < 5 degrees. Other asymmetries (e.g. the butterfly asymmetry) suggest a disk that has been recently disturbed. We searched for possible nearby perturbers but found no clear candidates. Low mass stars (M dwarfs) and brown dwarfs would have fallen beneath the sensitivity threshhold of our survey, however. (2) We calculated a set of disk models to assess the detectability of dust disks around stars as a function of (a) distance, (b) disk, inclination (c) dust optical depth/mass, and (d) imaging resolution. These models guided our observational strategy on Mauna Kea. (3) We performed a coronagraphic survey of approx. 100 main-sequence stars in search of additional examples of circumstellar disks. The best new candidate disk, around the 5 M(sun) star BD+31deg.643, is distinguished by its large extent (few x 10( exp 3) AU). This disk, if real, cannot be rotationally supported. We suggest that the dust particles are ejected from a smaller, unseen disk (Kuiper Belt?) by strong radiation pressure forces due to the high luminosity central star. (4) SCUBA images of circumstellar dust disks were obtained at 850 gm in 1997/8. These images show extended, asymmetric emission, but have a signal-to-noise ratio too low to permit disk mapping to large projected distances. Our images of beta Pic, in particular, are in agreement with those obtained by Holland et al., and appear to confirm the blob-structure reported first by these authors. We have not yet been able to confirm that the structure is intrinsic to the disk, since beta Pic is at -50 degree declination, and suitable observing opportunities from northern latitudes are comparatively rare (even at the +20 degree latitude of JCMT). It is possible, for instance, that the main 850 micro-m blob is merely a galaxy or other high-z source projected onto the beta Pic mid-plane.

Jewitt, David↗
NASA NTRS1976

Operations research investigations of satellite power stations

A systems model reflecting the design concepts of Satellite Power Stations (SPS) was developed. The model is of sufficient scope to include the interrelationships of the following major design parameters: the transportation to and between orbits; assembly of the SPS; and maintenance of the SPS. The systems model is composed of a set of equations that are nonlinear with respect to the system parameters and decision variables. The model determines a figure of merit from which alternative concepts concerning transportation, assembly, and maintenance of satellite power stations are studied. A hybrid optimization model was developed to optimize the system's decision variables. The optimization model consists of a random search procedure and the optimal-steepest descent method. A FORTRAN computer program was developed to enable the user to optimize nonlinear functions using the model. Specifically, the computer program was used to optimize Satellite Power Station system components.

Cole, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Finite and Boundary Element Modeling of the NASA Langley Aluminum Testbed Cylinder (ATC)

The NASA Langley Aluminum Testbed Cylinder (ATC) was designed to serve as a universal structure for evaluating structural acoustic codes, modeling techniques and optimization methods used in the prediction of aircraft interior noise. Finite element models were developed for the components of the ATC based on the geometric, structural and material properties of the physical test structure. Numerically predicted modal frequencies for the longitudinal stringer, ring frame and dome component models, and six assembled ATC arrangements were in good agreement with experimental modal survey data. Finite element modal analyses were performed for 3 psi and 6 psi internal pressurization conditions. Acoustic cylinder modes for the interior of the ATC were calculated with an acoustic finite element model. Frequency transfer functions between a unit force on the structure and the acoustic response inside the ATC cylinder were measured and were compared with predictions based on a boundary element model. Comparisons between predicted and experimental results are presented and discussed.

Grosveld, Ferdinand W.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Constraining Global Coronal Models with Multiple Independent Observables

Global coronal models seek to produce an accurate physical representation of the Sun's atmosphere that can be used, for example, to drive space-weather models. Assessing their accuracy is a complex task, and there are multiple observational pathways to provide constraints and tune model parameters. Here, we combine several such independent constraints, defining a model-agnostic framework for standardized comparison. We require models to predict the distribution of coronal holes at the photosphere, and neutral line topology at the model's outer boundary. We compare these predictions to extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) observations of coronal hole locations, white-light Carrington maps of the streamer belt, and the magnetic sector structure measured in situ by Parker Solar Probe and 1 au spacecraft. We study these metrics for potential field source surface (PFSS) models as a function of source surface height and magnetogram choice, as well as comparing to the more physical Wang–Sheeley–Arge (WSA) and the Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere (MAS) models. We find that simultaneous optimization of PFSS models to all three metrics is not currently possible, implying a trade-off between the quality of representation of coronal holes and streamer belt topology. WSA and MAS results show the additional physics that they include address this by flattening the streamer belt while maintaining coronal hole sizes, with MAS also improving coronal hole representation relative to WSA. We conclude that this framework is highly useful for inter- and intra-model comparisons. Integral to the framework is the standardization of observables required of each model, evaluating different model aspects.

S. T. Badman↗
NASA NTRS1994

The luminosity function for stars with minus 0.6 less than or equal to M (sub nu) less than or equal to 6.5 in the globular cluster M30: Is there a problem with stellar evolution models?

The V band luminosity function (LF) for stars ranging from the tip of the giant branch to approximately 2.5 mag fainter than the main-sequence turnoff (MSTO) in M30 (=NGC 7099, GC 2137-234) is derived from CCD observations. Comparison with the theoretical LFs of Bergbusch & VandenBerg (1992) for (M/H) = -2, 16 Gyr models shows discrepancies which can be described either of two ways: (1) If the observations are normalized to the models over a few magnitudes fainter than the MSTO, then there is an excess (N (sub obs) greater than N(sub predicted)) of subgiant stars within 0.5 mag of the MSTO at the level of 4.8 sigma and an excess of stars (approximately 20%) compared to the models all along the giant branch. (2) If the normalization is made to match predicted and observed numbers of stars on the giant branch, then there is a discrepancy between models and observations in the sense that there is a broad depression in the observed LF fainter than the MSTO that is not present in the models. Consideration of LFs generated from 12 Gyr models or models adjusted to a shorter (m - M)(sub nu) = 14.5) distance modulus diminishes the magnitude of some of these discrepancies but introduces other mismatches between the observations and models. LFs constructed from stellar models that have 10% of the stellar mass in an isothermal core qualitatively match the observations better than the 'standard' models.

Bolte, Michael↗
NASA NTRS1989

Interstellar extinction at 10-20 microns

The IRAS low-resolution spectra (LRS) spectra of 117 stars of excellent signal/noise with optically thin silicate dust shells were analyzed. The stellar continua (assumed to be a cool black body) were subtracted, and the resulting dust shell spectra were fit with simple models F(sub lambda) assuming uniform mass loss and dust temperature as a function of distance from the star, calculated using the optical constants for silcates of Draine (1985). From the comparison of the spectra and the models, functions for the emissivity, kappa(sub lambda), were derived.

Simpson, Janet P.↗
NASA NTRS1976

A mathematical simulation model of a 1985-era tilt-rotor passenger aircraft

A mathematical model for use in real-time piloted simulation of a 1985-era tilt rotor passenger aircraft is presented. The model comprises the basic six degrees-of-freedom equations of motion, and a large angle of attack representation of the airframe and rotor aerodynamics, together with equations and functions used to model turbine engine performance, aircraft control system and stability augmentation system. A complete derivation of the primary equations is given together with a description of the modeling techniques used. Data for the model is included in an appendix.

Mcveigh, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Quantifying Parameter Sensitivity, Interaction and Transferability in Hydrologically Enhanced Versions of Noah-LSM over Transition Zones

We use sensitivity analysis to identify the parameters that are most responsible for shaping land surface model (LSM) simulations and to understand the complex interactions in three versions of the Noah LSM: the standard version (STD), a version enhanced with a simple groundwater module (GW), and version augmented by a dynamic phenology module (DV). We use warm season, high-frequency, near-surface states and turbulent fluxes collected over nine sites in the US Southern Great Plains. We quantify changes in the pattern of sensitive parameters, the amount and nature of the interaction between parameters, and the covariance structure of the distribution of behavioral parameter sets. Using Sobol s total and first-order sensitivity indexes, we show that very few parameters directly control the variance of the model output. Significant parameter interaction occurs so that not only the optimal parameter values differ between models, but the relationships between parameters change. GW decreases parameter interaction and appears to improve model realism, especially at wetter sites. DV increases parameter interaction and decreases identifiability, implying it is overparameterized and/or underconstrained. A case study at a wet site shows GW has two functional modes: one that mimics STD and a second in which GW improves model function by decoupling direct evaporation and baseflow. Unsupervised classification of the posterior distributions of behavioral parameter sets cannot group similar sites based solely on soil or vegetation type, helping to explain why transferability between sites and models is not straightforward. This evidence suggests a priori assignment of parameters should also consider climatic differences.

Rosero, Enrique↗
NASA NTRS1987

Scale model test results of a thrust reverser concept for advanced multi-functional exhaust systems

An evaluation is made of scale model test results for a 'block-and-turn' thrust reverser design consisting of an internal flow blocker, internal doors, two ports located on the top and bottom of the exhaust duct, cascade-turning vanes located at the port exit to turn the flow, and external doors which guide the exhaust flow. Numerous geometric variations were incorporated in order to obtain parametric aerodynamic design criteria. The baseline reverser configuration exceeded predicted levels of performance. Skewed vane cascade concepts can be as effective in turning the flow as the baseline vane concept.

Kuchar, A. P.↗
NASA NTRS1984

ALESEP: A computer program for the analysis of airfoil leading edge separation bubbles

The ALESEP program for the analysis of the inviscid/viscous interaction which occurs due to the presence of a closed laminar transitional separation bubble on an airflow is presented. The ALESEP code provides a iterative solution of the boundary layer equations expressed in an inverse formulation coupled to a Cauchy integral representation of the inviscid flow. This interaction analysis is treated as a local perturbation to a known solution obtained from a global airfoil analysis. Part of the required input to the ALESEP code are the reference displacement thickness and tangential velocity distributions. Special windward differencing may be used in the reversed flow regions of the separation bubble to accurately account for the flow direction in the discretization of the streamwise convection of momentum. The ALESEP code contains a forced transition model based on a streamwise intermittency function and a natural transition model based on a solution of the integral form of the turbulent kinetic energy equation. Instructions for the input/output, and program usage are presented.

Davis, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Exploring the use of structural models to improve remote sensing agricultural estimates

Satellite estimates of agricultural characteristics often are not sufficiently precise for reliable use in small geographical regions. The precision of estimates of agricultural characteristics such as crop proportions and leaf area indexes can be increased by modeling ground observations as a function of satellite estimates. Linear regression models using least squares estimators of the model parameters are most often advocated as an appropriate methodology; however, least squares estimation requires that the predictor variables are measured without error, an unreasonable assumption for this application. An alternative estimation methodology which assumes that both the response variables (ground observations) and the predictor variables (satellite estimates) are measured with error involves the use of linear structural models. The application of linear structural models to the estimation of agricultural characteristics using satellite spectral measurements is examined.

Gunst, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Observations of electron beams in the low-latitude boundary layer

ISEE 1 electron spectrometer observations are used to study the electron distribution function in the low latitude boundary layer (LLBL) of the magnetosphere in the sunward direction. The study included 43 examples of well-defined layers. Using three-dimensional, model-independent distribution functions of electrons observed in the boundary layer, beams of field-aligned electrons with typically 100 eV energy maximums, streaming in either one, or both, directions have been identified. The phase densities in the LLBL and at lower altitudes are similar, and the beams observed in the LLBL are identified with those observed at lower altitudes. They form an important component of the plasma electrons in the LLBL, which otherwise resembles a mixture of magnetosheath-like and magnetospheric electrons.

Ogilvie, K. W.↗