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DOE OSTI2024

Wrought FeCrAl alloy (C26M) cladding behavior and burst under simulated loss-of-coolant accident conditions

Cladding burst experiments for FeCrAl cladding were performed in the Severe Accident Test Station facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. These experiments were simulated using the BISON fuel performance code to better understand the cladding plastic behavior and failure under simulated loss-of-coolant accident conditions. 3D cladding surface boundary conditions were generated using composite axial and azimuthal profiles from experiment thermocouple data. To improve the simulation analysis capabilities in BISON for cladding burst behavior, new thermal creep, plasticity, and failure stress models specific to C26M, a wrought FeCrAl alloy, were developed and implemented. Initial cladding burst results indicated a general underprediction in the failure temperature of the six cladding burst simulations versus the observed failure temperatures. Close investigation of the experiment timing versus the underlying tensile test data revealed that, compared with the tensile specimens, the cladding tubes did not experience the same long holding time at high temperatures. New tensile tests were performed at high temperatures using a temperature ramp similar to the simulated loss-of-coolant accident experiments. These new tensile curves showed an approximately 80% increase in the ultimate tensile strength of the C26M alloy, indicating that a holding time of 10 min at 700 °C and 800 °C allows annealing to change the material microstructure. Using the updated tensile properties, the burst temperatures and stresses from the simulations showed remarkable agreement with the experimental results. This study was then extended by varying the initial pressure to highlight the burst temperature difference between standard Zircaloy-4 and C26M cladding under equivalent conditions. The results show that C26M has a burst temperature that is approximately 70–130 K greater than that of Zircaloy-4. In conclusion, these modeling predictions can be further improved by collecting high-temperature tensile data for C26M beyond the temperature ranges used in this work.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

BISON analysis of FeCrAl and Zircaloy cladding deformation during simulated BWR cyclic dryout conditions

The BISON fuel performance analysis code has been used to study FeCrAl and Zircaloy cladding performance to better understand cladding deformation behavior in boiling water reactors during conditions caused by anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs) or by anticipated transients without scram (ATWS). BISON models of novel separate effects tests simulating ATWS events predicted mechanical responses to thermal cycling boundary conditions. Here, we assessed FeCrAl and Zircaloy deformation and burst models to determine those best suited for cyclic dryout event analysis. In addition, we compared diametral strain profiles of the post-experiment claddings to simulation results. The capability of the BISON code for modeling BWR AOO or ATWS events is promising.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Progress Toward Simulating Departure from Nucleate Boiling at High-Pressure Applications with Selected Wall Boiling Closures

Recently, a Eulerian-based two-fluid computational fluid dynamics (CFD) framework with a wall heat flux partitioning approach has been intensively investigated for departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) simulation under the U.S. Department of Energy–funded Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) program. Understanding of the DNB characteristics over a range of pressurized water reactor–like operating conditions and accurate prediction of boiling crisis in the nuclear power system have been grand challenges because of the large impact of DNB on reactor safety and operational economics. The ultimate goal of this task in the CASL program is to introduce a robust multiphase CFD–based DNB modeling framework that is capable of characterizing an entire boiling history in which the wall boiling mode experiences the following through multiple stages of heat transfer mode: (1) single-phase convective heat transfer, (2) nucleate boiling heat transfer, and (3) identification of the departure of nucleate boiling. To validate the CASL boiling model, we have benchmarked simulated DNB over three different flow channel configurations (pipe flow, 5 × 5 fuel bundle with mixing vane tests, and 5 × 5 fuel bundle without mixing vane tests) against experimental measurements, and the validation result with open literature is reported. The DNB detection criteria in the simulation are checked by monitoring the peak wall temperature, wall dryout factor, and net energy balance. In addition to the DNB performance test, some preliminary sensitivity results on closure model selection are reported to address the prediction capability of local void profile against measurements. The boiling simulation tested in this study exhibits a maximum deviation of 24% from the measured DNB value in a high-pressure (i.e., 138 bars) subcooled pipe flow test. The ranges of operating conditions are as follows: 1650 to 2650 kg/m 2 ·s for mass flux and 8.5 to 96 K for subcooled inlet temperature. The deviation is even reduced to 7% when the subcooled temperature is less than 40 K. Besides accuracy, base practice guidelines for DNB detection criteria are tested by monitoring three simulation variables: (1) maximum wall temperature, (2) wall dryout factor (i.e., K-value), and (3) energy balance. Numerical robustness of DNB simulation is largely achieved in most of the validation test except for a few high subcooled test cases.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Image-driven discriminative and generative machine learning algorithms for establishing microstructure–processing relationships

We investigate methods of microstructure representation for the purpose of predicting processing condition from microstructure image data. A binary alloy that is currently under development as a nuclear fuel was studied for the purpose of developing an improved machine learning approach to image recognition, characterization, and building predictive capabilities linking microstructure to processing conditions. Here, we test different microstructure representations and evaluate model performance based on classification accuracy. A classification accuracy of 95.8% was achieved fordistinguishing between micrographs corresponding to ten different thermo-mechanical material processing conditions.We find that our newly developed microstructure representation describes image data well, and the traditional approachof utilizing area fractions of different phases is insufficient for distinguishing between multiple classes using a relativelysmall, imbalanced original data set of 272 images. To explore the applicability of generative methods for supplementing such limited data sets, generative adversarial networks were trained to generate artificial microstructure images. Two different generative networks were trained and tested to assess performance. Challenges and best practices associated with applying machine learning to limited microstructure image data sets is also discussed. Our work has implications for quantitative microstructure analysis, and development of microstructure-processing relationships in limited data sets typical of metallurgical process design studies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Demonstration of low-density, high-performance operation of sustained spheromaks and favorable scalability toward compact, low-cost fusion power plants (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

This project worked to advance the technical viability of a novel method for efficiently sustaining stable, high-performance spheromak plasma configurations to serve as the basis of compact, low-cost fusion power plants. In particular, our group worked to improve the method of Steady Inductive Helicity Injection (SIHI) with Imposed-Dynamo Current Drive (IDCD) for spheromak plasma sustainment. Prior to this project demonstrations of this plasma sustainment technology have achieved plasma performance consistent with entry milestone 3 of the BETHE FOA. Research and development (R&D) activities for this project were focused on increasing plasma performance toward a level consistent with exit milestone 4. To do this the PI and his group worked to increase the performance of sustained spheromaks produced in an existing experimental prototype (HIT-SIU) while improving confidence in projections to and design of future, higher performance devices through three primary R&D activities: 1) Improved control over the density of plasma in the device throughout a discharge to provide a pathway for demonstration of spheromaks Ohmically heating to the Mercier beta limit via: a. Fueling the device directly with plasma through the installation of pre-ionized source on the injectors b. Optimization of electrical current waveforms in the driver circuits to enable low-density plasma formation with a lower fueling rate 2) Computational demonstration of a validated, realistic injector circuit coupled to a dynamic plasma model capable of use as a design tool for SIHI drivers and associated circuits for new experimental design points on the pathway to commercial reactors. The improvements in plasma performance achieved during research activity 1), and the computational projections performed in research activity 2) increased the technological readiness level (TRL) of this fusion energy concept toward a level sufficient to attract early-stage private investment and/or other forms of follow-on investment to pursue required R&D activities required for the eventual fusion power plants based on this novel technical approach.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multifidelity Active Learning for Failure Estimation of TRISO Nuclear Fuel

The Tristructural isotropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel is a robust nuclear fuel proposed to be used for multiple modern nuclear technologies. Therefore, characterizing its safety is vital for the reliable operation of nuclear technologies. However, the TRISO fuel failure probabilities are small and the computational model is time consuming to evaluate them using traditional Monte Carlo-type approaches. In the paper, we present a multifidelity active learning approach to efficiently estimate small failure probabilities given an expensive computational model. Active learning suggests the next best training set for optimal subsequent predictive performance and multifidelity modeling uses cheaper low-fidelity models to approximate the high-fidelity model output. After presenting the multifidelity active learning approach, we apply it to efficiently predict TRISO failure probability and make comparisons to the reference results.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Influence of Proton Activity Gaps between Electrodes on Open-Circuit Potential of H 2 /H 2 and H 2 /Air Cells

Polymer -electrolyte-fuel-cell open-circuit voltages (OCVs) are exactly defined by equation (1), where cathode and anode proton activities [(aH+)cathode and (aH+)anode, respectively] usually are identical, so the third term in the right-hand side of equation (2) is ignored. OCV=E0+RT/2F*ln(a1/2 O2*(a2 H+)cathode/aH2O)-RT/2F*ln((a2 H+)anode/aH2) (1) =E0+RT/2F*ln(a1/2 O2*aH2/aH2O)+RT/2F*ln((a2 H+)cathode/(a2 H+)anode) (2) Water vapor pressure is a colligative property that fundamentally correlates to electrolyte concentrations in aqueous solutions. Proton activity is a function of acid concentration, such as pH, when electrolytes are acids. In polymer-electrolyte membranes, water vapor pressure and acid concentration are understood as relative humidity (RH) and water uptake (λ), respectively, where λ represents number of water molecules per sulfonic acid molecule. Several investigations have reported the relationship between RH and λ, meaning that proton activities and associated water uptakes are intimately related to RH. In actual fuel cell operation, cathode RH is determined by ambient-atmosphere and/or humidifier RH(s), and anode RH depends on hydrogen-circulator RH. Therefore, RH is not always identical at both electrodes, and the difference between electrode RHs is considerable during dry operation of polymer electrolyte fuel cells. Therefore, the third term in the right-hand side of equation (2) may be significant for dry operation. We measured OCVs when hydrogen was supplied to both electrodes at 80°C. One electrode (A) was fixed at 30% RH, while RH at the other electrode (B) was varied (0, 5, 10, 20, and 30%). Measured OCVs varied from 0 to 75 mV. For fuel cell tests, electrode A was supplied with hydrogen at 30% RH; electrode B, oxygen at 0, 5, 10, 20, and 30% RH. OCVs deviated from that measured when RH at electrode B was 30%, increasing from 0 to 60 mV with decreasing RH at electrode B. Results are also shown in Figure 1. Proton activities of both electrodes were thermodynamically calculated. The Gibbs–Duhem relation was applied to obtain molar Gibbs free energies of water and sulfonic acid, and proton activity coefficient was calculated using the Gibbs free energy of sulfonic acid and the relationship between RH and λ1–4, assuming that protons and sulfonic anions show identical ionic-activity coefficients. OCVs were estimated using the third term in the right-hand side of equation (2). Results are shown in Figure 1. Fuel-cell current–voltage performance was poor when RHs at the anode and cathode were 30 and 20%, respectively. To determine kinetic current, we measured the oxygen-reduction reaction (ORR) using a rotating-disk electrode (RDE) in concentrated-acid aqueous solutions, which modeled catalyst-layer ionomers. Kinetic currents decreased with acid concentrations. References T. A. Zawodzinski, Jr., C. Derouin, S. Radzinski, R. J. Sherman, V. T. Smith, T. E. Springer and S. Gottesfeld , J. Electrochem. Soc., 140,1041 (1993) P. K. Das and A. Z. Weber, Proceedings of the ASME 2013 11th Fuel Cell Science, Engineering and Technology Conference, Fuel Cell 18010 (2013) V. A. Sethuraman, J. W. Weidner, A. T. Haug, S. Motupally,b and L. V. Protsailo, J. Electrochem. Soc., 155, B50 (2008) A. Kusoglu and A. Z. Weber, Chem. Rev., 117, 987 (2017) Figure 1

Yoshida, Toshihiko↗

DOE OSTI2023

Develop and Connect TRISO Failure Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification to Fission Product Release Calculation Capability

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the development of BISON, a high-fidelity and high-resolution fuel performance tool. Stress-based failure probability has been developed and analyzed to assess the integrity of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles during fuel life cycles. While simple, stress-based approaches to failure probability leveraging the Weibull statistical distribution entails a number of drawbacks when stress concentration occurs near crack tips, including finite element mesh size dependency. In this report, we use an interaction integral approach to the computation of stress intensity factors in functionally graded materials (FGM) for axisymmetric models. The inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) cracking induced silicon carbide (SiC) failure is one of the dominated failure modes in TRISO failure analysis. In this study, we consider a crack in the IPyC layer perpendicular to the SiC layer. The interface between these two TRISO layers is considered to be porous, which we simulate considering a transition of mechanical properties over the porous length. These aspects are considered in the computation of stress intensity factor (SIF) from a fracture mechanics approach and compared with the known stress-based failure probability approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

ACS Spotlight: Bipolar Membranes for Electrochemical Energy Conversion, Chemical Manufacturing, and Separations

Sustainable energy conversion, chemical manufacturing, and separations are central to addressing the world’s energy and environmental challenges. Electrochemical platforms stand as a cornerstone in addressing these challenges because they are low exergy and can be powered on renewable electrons. In electrochemical systems, bipolar membranes (BPMs) are emerging as a unique class of ion exchange membranes poised to revolutionize various electrochemical processes via pH control of anode and cathode chambers and in situ pH adjustment. In this Spotlight Review, we provide a comprehensive review of electrochemical platforms utilizing BPMs for energy conversion (water electrolyzers for hydrogen production, fuel cells, and flow batteries), chemical manufacturing (electrolyzers that convert carbon dioxide into value-added chemicals and nitrate into ammonia), and separations. The motivation for using BPMs, as well as their performance and durability, in electrochemical platforms are disseminated. We also discuss current challenges that impede BPM electrochemical systems from competing with state-of-the-art electrochemical systems using monopolar ion-exchange membranes (e.g., anion/hydroxide exchange membranes and cation/proton exchange membranes). Here, the review also covers molecular modeling and continuum modeling efforts to understand the basic mechanisms that govern BPM performance.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling ablator defects as a source of mix in high-performance implosions at the National Ignition Facility

Recent indirect drive inertial confinement fusion implosions on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) [Spaeth et al., Fusion Sci. Technol. 69, 25 (2016)] have crossed the threshold of ignition. However, performance has been variable due to several factors. One of the leading sources of variability is the quality of the high-density carbon (HDC) shells used as ablators in these experiments. In particular, these shells can have a number of defects that have been found to correlate with the appearance of ablator mix into the hot spot and a degradation in nuclear yield. These defects include pits on the ablator surface, voids in the ablator bulk, high-Z debris from the Hohlraum wall that adheres to the capsule surface, and finally the inherent granular micro-structure of the crystalline HDC itself. This paper summarizes high-resolution modeling of each of these mix sources in two recent high-performance NIF implosion experiments. The simulated impact from a range of individual capsule defects is found to be broadly consistent with the trends seen in experiment, lending credence to the modeling results and the details of the mixing process that they reveal. Interestingly, modeling of the micro-structure inherent to HDC shows that this perturbation source results in considerable mixing of the deuterium–tritium fuel with ablator material during the implosion. The reduction in fuel compression from this mix results in an approximately factor of two reduction in neutron yield in current implosions and emphasizes the importance of mitigating this significant performance degradation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Recurrent neural networks for short-term and long-term prediction of geothermal reservoirs

Accurate prediction of geothermal reservoir responses to alternative energy production scenarios is critical for optimizing the development of the underlying resources. While the conventional physics-based models offer a comprehensive prediction tool, data-driven models provide an efficient alternative to build fit-for-purpose predictive models by extracting and using the statistical patterns in the collected data to make predictions. The recurrent neural network (RNN) is a data-driven model that is commonly applied to predict time series sequences. This paper presents a variant of RNN that also utilizes the efficiency of convolutional neural networks (CNN) for the prediction of energy production from geothermal reservoirs. Specifically, a CNN–RNN architecture is developed that takes historical well controls as input (features) and their corresponding production response data as output (labels) to learn an input-output mapping that can predict the future well production responses/performance for any given future well control inputs. The model is paired with a labeling scheme to handle real field disturbances that create data gaps. In addition to the model structure, we introduce a thorough workflow for applying the model, which includes data pre-processing, feature selection, as well as different training strategies for short-term and long-term prediction. Finally, the performance and accuracy of the model are evaluated by applying it to multiple datasets, including a field reservoir model.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Purification of U from U-10Mo scrap generated during the fabrication of high performance research reactor fuel

A low enriched U-Mo alloy fuel is under development to replace highly enriched U fuels currently used in United States high performance research reactors. The alloy casting and fuel fabrication processes will generate scrap streams containing low enriched U (LEU) which must be recovered. Solvent extraction processes were designed using the Argonne Model for Universal Solvent Extraction (AMUSE) to purify solutions containing 20 and 50 g/L U. The feed for the solvent extraction processes was prepared from solutions generated from the dissolution of U-10Mo-Zr foils and U-10Mo-Zr-Al mini-plates. The U purification processes were demonstrated using two, 16-stage banks of miniature mixer-settlers. The solvent extraction experiments demonstrated that all design objectives for the U purification processes could be met. The U recovery in the product stream for each flowsheet was ≥99.9%. The flowsheet demonstrations also showed that the purity of the U Product will meet the requirements of the ASTM International C1462-21 specification for LEU metal enriched to less than 20% 235 U. In conclusion, the AMUSE modeling for both flowsheet demonstrations was validated by comparing predicted and measured concentrations of U, Mo, and Zr in the exit streams and stage samples at steady-state conditions in the mixer-settlers.

modified PUREX process↗

DOE OSTI2022

PFLOTRAN Development FY2022

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Validation of NEAMS Tools Using MSRE Data

This report documents the benchmarks developed and performed for the tools and codes developed under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program utilizing the MSRE experiment data. There are three focus areas explored in this work: fuel evolution, CFD, and system transient analyses. Fuel depletion is important for MSR reactor physics and fuel cycle analysis. Fuel depletion capability is currently being developed in the Griffin reactor physics code. To support this, a benchmark problem is developed using the MSRE data and an existing depletion code with flowing fuel analysis functionality (ADDER) to validate this new capability in Griffin. The ADDER calculation is compared with the TRITON-MSR results as well as the MSRE experimental data. This benchmark can be directly used to verify and validate the Griffin fuel depletion capability in future years. For CFD simulation, the MSRE CAD model is obtained from the Copenhagen Atomics and a mesh is generated for the MSRE inlet plenum. The Nek5000 code will be employed to find the flow distribution in the MSRE inlet plenum based on the mesh generated. For system analysis, a simple benchmark problem for three types of MSR system transients is developed. The SAM and SPECTRA codes are used to solve the simple problem, and the results from the two codes agree well. The SAM code is also employed to obtain the frequency response of the MSRE system at the 5 and 8 MWt power levels. The results agree well with the experiment measurements. These verification and validation efforts gives SAM users more confidence in MSR system transient simulations using SAM. Lastly, the SAM-Griffin Multiphysics coupling work is initiated. A simple one-way coupling of evaluating the precursor drift effect on the MSRE k-eff is demonstrated. This preliminary coupling work serves as the basis for future more complex Multiphysics simulation and modelling.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

3D modeling of the Staged Z-pinch with the FLASH code

The Staged Z-pinch (SZP) fusion concept is a magneto-inertial compression scheme developed by Magneto-Inertial Fusion Technologies, Inc. (MIFTI), in which small amounts of fusion fuel are brought to fusion-relevant conditions by passing multi-million amperes strong current through a cylindrical shell of high atomic number material. One- and two-dimensional modeling performed by MIFTI with the MACH2 code, suggests that net fusion energy gain can be achieved when currents in the 10 million amperes range compress a 50%-50% mixture of deuterium and tritium gas. In this project we enhance and use the FLASH code to execute high-fidelity, simulations of various SZP configurations, a collaboration between the Flash Center for Computational Science at the University of Rochester and the Laboratory for Laser Energetics, and MIFTI. FLASH is a high-performance computing, multi-physics, radiation magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code with extended physics capabilities, which is developed at the Flash Center. The goal of this project is to assess the shell/fuel stability of the pinch to two- and three-dimensional MHD instabilities and to utilize FLASH’s extended physics capabilities to understand how extended-MHD effects impact implosion dynamics and plasma conditions at stagnation. The project is a natural extension of an ongoing collaborative effort between MIFTI and the Flash Center through the U.S. DOE Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) BETHE program and can provide MIFTI with simulation capabilities that are currently beyond their reach with MACH2. Ultimately, MIFTI wants FLASH to become one of their simulation workhorses for reliable, high-fidelity SZP platform design. During the project, the Flash Center team developed a suite of in one- and two-dimensional FLASH simulations to model different variants of the SZP platform, performed code-to-code comparisons with MACH2, and used the FLASH code to design and model SZP experiments like the Double Eagle experiments that MIFTI recently performed. Also, the Flash Center team developed the capabilities of FLASH to be able to do three-dimensional simulations of pulsed-power experiments with the code for the first time. Two publications from this effort are currently under review and two more are in preparation. MIFTI has also committed to the use of FLASH for future SZP simulation efforts.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

PFLOTRAN Development FY2021

The Spent Fuel & Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Office of Spent Fuel & Waste Disposition (SFWD) is conducting research and development (R&D) on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW). A high priority for SFWST disposal R&D is to develop a disposal system modeling and analysis capability for valuating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media. This report describes fiscal year (FY) 2021 advances of the PFLOTRAN Development group of the SFWST Campaign. The mission of this group is to develop a geologic disposal system modeling capability for nuclear waste that can be used to probabilistically assess the performance of generic disposal concepts. In FY 2021, development proceeded along three main thrusts: software infrastructure, code performance, and process model advancement. Software infrastructure improvements included implementing an Agile software development framework and making improvements to the QA Test Suite. Code performance improvements included development of advanced linear and nonlinear solvers as well as design of flexible smoothing algorithms for capillary pressure functions. Process modeling advancements included the addition of flexible thermal conductivity function definitions and refinement of multi-continuum reactive transport to support Sandia’s participation in DECOVALEX. This report fulfills the GDSA PFLOTRAN Development Work Package Level 3 Milestone – PFLOTRAN Development, FY2021, M3SF-21SN010304072.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application of Dynamical System Scaling for Accelerated Fuel Qualification Efforts

There are considerable ongoing research and testing campaigns to qualify new fuel designs such as metallic fuels for advanced reactor designs and the Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) campaign for light water reactors (LWR). The typical research and development lifecycle needed to qualify a nuclear fuel design, under ideal conditions, can take up to 20-25 years which limits the ability for new fuels to make fast deployments into commercial, test, and research reactors. While there are several efforts to accelerate nuclear fuel qualification through advanced modeling coupled with state-of-the-art experiments, there is not yet a framework to methodically quantify and rank distortions occurring in experimental test specimens needed to validate nuclear fuel performance codes. This study uses the Dynamical System Scaling (DSS) methodology to quantify transient scaling distortions that occur over experiment and simulated transients. DSS analysis metrics provide a researcher with several tools and information embedded within test data to identify dominant phenomena, associated timescales, and quantify a transient?s overall dynamic distortion. This is demonstrated with separate analyses of the SETH-C and CHF-SERTTA thermal-hydraulic experiments in the TREAT facility at Idaho National Laboratory. The outcome of this work is a scaling and data analysis approach to account for the influence a scaled fuel test specimen?s geometric and temporal distortions have on its ability to be representative of the full-scale design.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Accuracy of predictions made by machine learned models for biocrude yields obtained from hydrothermal liquefaction of organic wastes

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) has potential for converting abundant wet organic wastes into renewable fuels. Because HTL consists of a complex reaction network, deterministic, physics-based prediction of its biocrude yield is prohibitively difficult. Data-driven methods provide an alternative to the physics-based approach; however, rigorous testing must be performed to ensure the accuracy of predictions made by data-driven methods. To this end, a data set was assembled consisting of 570 data points appearing in the open literature. The data set was divided into training, validation, and test sub-sets and used for evaluating different machine learning regression approaches to predict biocrude yield. Among the tested algorithms, Random Forest and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) predicted biocrude yields in a test set that had not been used for training with the greatest accuracy, with root mean square errors (RMSE) of 8.34 and 8.57, respectively. Further refinement of the Random Forest model reduced its RMSE to 8.07. In comparison, predictions of a series of literature models resulted in RMSE ranging from 9.16 in the most accurate case to 27.6 in the least accurate; most literature models yielded RMSE values > 10. Using biocrude yield predictions from the most accurate Random Forest model and a probabilistic economic analysis found that the model accuracy is sufficient to prioritize allocation of resources based on projected minimum fuel selling price. In our report the models and analysis represent a major advance in the ability to use readily available data to predict biocrude yields on new feedstocks that have not previously been studied.

42 ENGINEERING↗