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DOE OSTI2023

Quantification and prediction of error in MIMO tests

Dynamic testing of systems is most realistic of real-world conditions when multiple input and multiple output (MIMO) techniques are used. To replicate measured environmental conditions, a series of desired outputs (responses) on the system must be realized by inverting the frequency response functions (FRF) matrix for input estimation. System identification is dependent on the number of inputs and outputs, which affect the type of solutions. In input estimation, the auto spectra of the determined inputs are affected by both the auto spectra and cross spectra of the desired outputs. This research evaluates errors and investigates two sources in an experimental setting. The first significant error source is test-to-test variability in FRFs from system identification tests, quantified by magnitude variability from long-duration tests. The second significant error source is the realization of time histories from frequency domain inputs. The spectral content of the realized random process deviates from the desired content and is also quantified. The structure is a linear three-story frame fixed at the base; two inputs are provided uniaxially with the use of suspended electrodynamic shakers. The proposed model for error sources was found to be effective in predicting errors in a SISO (single-input single-output) and a square (2-input 2-output) MIMO test.

Yousef, Odey↗

DOE OSTI2022

Classification and Localization of Fracture-Hit Events in Low-Frequency Distributed Acoustic Sensing Strain Rate with Convolutional Neural Networks

Summary Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) has been used in the oil and gas industry as an advanced technology for surveillance and diagnostics. Operators use DAS to monitor hydraulic fracturing activities, examine well stimulation efficacy, and estimate complex fracture system geometries. Particularly, low-frequency DAS can detect geomechanical events such as fracture hits because hydraulic fractures propagate and create strain rate variations in the rock. Analysis of DAS data today is mostly done post-job and subject to interpretation methods. However, the continuous and dense data stream generated live by DAS poses the opportunity for more efficient and accurate real-time data-driven analysis. The objective of this study is to develop a machine learning-based workflow that can identify and locate fracture-hit events in simulated strain rate responses correlated with low-frequency DAS data. In this paper, “fracture hit” refers to a hydraulic fracture originating from a stimulated well intersecting an offset well. We start with building a single fracture propagation model to produce strain rate patterns observed at a hypothetical monitoring well. This model is used to generate two sets of strain rate responses with one set containing fracture-hit events. The labeled synthetic data are then used to train a custom convolutional neural network (CNN) model for identifying the presence of fracture-hit events. The same model is trained again for locating the event with the output layer of the model replaced with linear units. We achieved near-perfect predictions for both event classification and localization. These promising results prove the feasibility of using CNN for real-time event detection from fiber-optic sensing data. Additionally, we use edge detection techniques to recognize fracture-hit event patterns in strain rate images. The fracture-hit location can be identified using recognized pixels in the image. The accuracy of edge detection-based location identification is also plausible, but edge detection is dependent on the assumption of pattern shape and image quality, hence it is less robust compared to CNN models. This comparison further supports the need for CNN applications in image-based real-time fiber-optic sensing event detection.

Engineering↗

NASA NTRS1995

Frequencies and Characteristics of Global Oceanic Precipitation from Shipboard Present-Weather Reports

Ship reports of present weather obtained from the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set are analyzed for the period 1958-91 in order to elucidate regional and seasonal variations in the climatological frequency, phase, intensity, and character of oceanic precipitation. Specific findings of note include the following: 1) The frequency of thunderstorm reports, relative to all precipitation reports, is a strong function of location, with thunderstorm activity being favored within 1000-3000 km of major tropical and subtropical land masses, while being quite rare at other locations, even within the intertropical convergence zone. 2) The latitudinal frequency of precipitation over the southern oceans increases steadily toward the Antarctic continent and shows relatively little seasonal variation. The frequency of convective activity, however, shows considerable seasonal variability, with sharp winter maxima occurring near 38 deg. latitude in both hemispheres. 3) Drizzle is the preferred form of precipitation in a number of regions, most of which coincide with known regions of persistent marine stratus and stratocumulus in the subtropical highs. Less well documented is the high relative frequency of drizzle in the vicinity of the equatorial sea surface temperature front in the eastern Pacific. 4) Regional differences in the temporal scale of precipitation events (e.g., transient showers versus steady precipitation) are clearly depicted by way of the ratio of the frequency of precipitation at the observation time to the frequency of all precipitation reports, including precipitation during the previous hour. The results of this study suggest that many current satellite rainfall estimation techniques may substantially underestimate the fractional coverage or frequency of precipitation poleward of 50 deg. latitude and in the subtropical dry zones. They also draw attention to the need to carefully account for regional differences in the physical and spatial properties of rainfall when developing calibration relationships for satellite algorithms.

Petty, Grant W.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing quantum clocks and sensors with randomization and decoherence

This letter shows how incoherent dynamics can lead to metrological advantages in quantum sensing. The results rely on the fact that incoherent dynamics lead to an additive contribution to the quantum Fisher information about time. Such an additive contribution can reduce the error of optimal estimation protocols, as implied by the quantum Cramér–Rao bound. I characterize regimes in which the estimation of a time interval or a frequency is enhanced by decoherence, thereby identifying cases in which incoherent dynamics serve as a metrological resource. The decoherence processes that yield enhanced precision of quantum sensors can be engineered by randomized Hamiltonian dynamics. I illustrate the results with protocols that display improved sensing of time intervals or global fields by qubit and photonic sensors. Enhanced precision of time intervals is achieved with Hamiltonians that include randomized global parameters. Enhanced precision in field estimation is obtained by randomized sensing times.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Estimation of Large-Scale Wind Field Characteristics Using Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition Measurements

As the wind energy industry continues to push for increased power production and lower cost of energy, the focus of research has expanded from individual turbines to entire wind farms. Among a host of interesting problems to be solved when considering the wind farm as a whole, we consider the challenge of scalar field estimation, based on information already collected at the individual turbine level. We aim to estimate the large-scale, low-frequency characteristics of the wind field, such as the mean wind direction and the overall decrease in wind speed across the farm, and employ a Kalman filter that models the wind field using a polynomial function. We compare the proposed method’s performance to both a simple averaging technique and filtering of individual turbine measurements. The method presented is not limited to wind turbines and is applicable in other situations where multiple remote agents are used to estimate a scalar field.

estimation↗

NASA NTRS1976

Multilayered models for electromagnetic reflection amplitudes

The remote sensing of snowpack characteristics with surface installations or with an airborne system could have important applications in water resource management and flood prediction. To derive some insight into such applications, the electromagnetic response of multilayer snow models is analyzed. Normally incident plane waves are assumed at frequencies ranging from 10 to the 6th power to 10 to the 10th power Hz, and amplitude reflection coefficients are calculated for models having various snow-layer combinations, including ice sheets. Layers are defined by a thickness, permittivity, and conductivity; the electrical parameters are constant or prescribed functions of frequency. To illustrate the effect of various layering combinations, results are given in the form of curves of amplitude reflection coefficients, versus frequency for a variety of models. Under simplifying assumptions, the snow thickness and effective dielectric constant can be estimated from the reflection coefficient variations as a function of frequency.

Linlor, W. I.↗

NASA NTRS1977

The optimal control frequency response problem in manual control

An optimal control frequency response problem is defined within the context of the optimal pilot model. The problem is designed to specify pilot model control frequencies reflective of important aircraft system properties, such as control feel system dynamics, airframe dynamics, and gust environment, as well as man machine properties, such as task and attention allocation. This is accomplished by determining a bounded set of control frequencies which minimize the total control cost. The bounds are given by zero and the neuromuscular control frequency response for each control actuator. This approach is fully adaptive, i.e., does not depend upon user entered estimates. An algorithm is developed to solve this optimal control frequency response problem. The algorithm is then applied to an attitude hold task for a bare airframe fighter aircraft case with interesting dynamic properties.

Harrington, W. W.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Penetration through Slots in Cylindrical Cavities Operating at Fundamental Cavity Modes in the Presence of Electromagnetic Absorbers

Placing microwave absorbing materials into a high-quality factor resonant cavity may in general reduce the large interior electromagnetic fields excited under external illumination. In this study, we aim to combine two analytical models we previously developed: 1) an unmatched formulation for frequencies below the slot resonance to model shielding effectiveness versus frequency; and 2) a perturbation model approach to estimate the quality factor of cavities in the presence of absorbers. The resulting model realizes a toolkit with which design guidelines of the absorber's properties and location can be optimized over a frequency band. Analytic predictions of shielding effectiveness for three transverse magnetic modes for various locations of the absorber placed on the inside cavity wall show good agreement with both full-wave simulations and experiments, and validate the proposed model. This analysis opens new avenues for specialized ways to mitigate harmful fields within cavities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1992

A dual-frequency microwave technique for measuring rainwater content

This study shows that the dual-frequency (38, 25 GHz) differential attenuation (A(38-25)) coefficient can provide accurate estimates of rainwater content W potentially over a wide range of rainwater contents. While measurements along a microwave link are fairly easily implemented, radar estimates of A(38-25) can become clouded by differences between the radar reflectivity factors at the two frequencies (Z38, Z25). Root-mean-square deviations (epsilon) of the estimated W from the actual W are calculated for a wide variety of drop-size distributions and rainwater contents. The computed epsilon include the effects of standard measurement errors and differences between Z38 and Z25. Accurate estimates appear possible using a 38-25-GHz radar when W is not less than 1.5-2 g/cu m, depending upon the desired spatial resolution, and along a microwave link when W is not less than 0.5 g/cu m.

Jameson, A. R.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Ozone spectroscopy with a CO2 waveguide laser

Ozone spectral measurements were conducted with a waveguide CO2 laser, which was continuously tunable over a + or - 450-MHz region, about several lines in the P-branch of the band near the 9.5-micron wavelength region. A passively stabilized low-pressure CO2 laser was also used to provide reference CO2 frequencies. The frequencies of several ozone lines were determined in the nu-3 band, which are near CO2 laser line frequencies in the 9.5-micron wavelength region. The absolute measurement accuracy is estimated to be + or - 6 MHz, and the measurements indicate that the ozone line frequencies listed in currently available spectral compilations are 0.003-0.006 per cm too high. The size of this error is small by conventional IR standards, but extremely important when CO2 laser instruments are used to monitor stratospheric ozone, where line widths in this spectral region are typically 0.001/cm. Empirically determined absorption curves must be constructed in order to calibrate laser differential absorption instrument properly when low-altitude ozone measurements are conducted.

Menzies, R. T.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Low frequency propagation in the earth's magnetosphere

Using a model to simulate wave propagation, estimates were obtained on the effect of the earth's magnetosphere on the imaging potential of the Low-Frequency Space Array mission for observations above the ionosphere at frequencies below about 10 MHz. Results of this simulation show that, for imaging at 1.5 MHz, large orbital radii will be required. It is concluded that successful imaging from within the plasmasphere may depend upon the feasibility of correction schemes.

Dennison, Brian↗

NASA NTRS1981

An error budget for the JPL hydrogen maser receiver

The hydrogen maser receiver is a synthesizer that converts the maser signal, at about 1420 MHz, to a set of output signals at 100, 20, 10, 5, 1, and 0.1 MHz. The contribution of the receiver and its component modules to the frequency instability and phase noise of each of its outputs is estimated, and these results are compared to published measurements of the 100-MHz output of the frequency standard, which consists of a maser plus its receiver. One can then assess how much the receiver degrades the performance of the frequency standard.

Greenhall, C. A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of the muon anomalous precession frequency in runs 4, 5, and 6 of the muon ${g}-2$ Experiment at Fermilab

The Fermilab E989 Muon $g-2$ experiment measures the muon's anomalous magnetic moment to a precision of 127 parts per billion, as reported in June 2025. The value is proportional to the difference between the muon's cyclotron frequency and the spin precession frequency in the presence of a uniform magnetic field, for muons contained within the $g-2$ storage ring. Spin precession frequency is extracted from the time distribution of the muon's decay positrons recorded by 24 electromagnetic calorimeters positioned around the inner circumference of the storage ring. The anomalous precession frequency is one of the primary experimental inputs necessary to estimate the anomalous magnetic moment, the other being the measurement of the magnetic field. This dissertation details the anomalous precession frequency extraction, including reconstruction, time-distribution fitting, and treatment of systematic uncertainties for the final three data-collection runs: Run-4, Run-5, and Run-6. This data represents a fourfold increase in statistics over the previous analysis release, halving the statistical uncertainty. The residual slow term from previous analyses is now well understood and documented in a systematic treatment. As of the writing of this dissertation, the theoretical prediction for the SM estimate of the muon's anomalous magnetic moment is under debate, with two competing prediction methods, so a definitive comparison with theory is not available. The results submitted for experimental release use the kernel-ratio asymmetry method, contributing 115 parts per billion to the statistical uncertainty and 34 parts per billion to the systematic uncertainty. When combined with the previous analyses in earlier data runs, this thereby improves the measurement beyond the experimental goal and sets the world's most precise measurement of the muon's anomalous magnetic moment.

Israel, Scott Nathan [Boston U.]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of the muon anomalous precession frequency in runs 4, 5, and 6 of the muon ${g}-2$ Experiment at Fermilab

Israel, Scott Nathan [Boston U.]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Measurement of the muon anomalous precession frequency in Runs 4, 5, and 6 of the Muon g-2 experiment at Fermilab

The Fermilab E989 Muon g − 2 experiment measures the muon’s anomalous magnetic moment to a precision of 127 parts per billion, as reported in June 2025. The value is proportional to the difference between the muon’s cyclotron frequency and the spin precession frequency in the presence of a uniform magnetic field, for muons contained within the g − 2 storage ring. Spin precession frequency is extracted from the time distribution of the muon’s decay positrons recorded by 24 electromagnetic calorimeters positioned around the inner circumference of the storage ring. The anomalous precession frequency is one of the primary experimental inputs necessary to estimate the anomalous magnetic moment, the other being the measurement of the magnetic field. This dissertation details the anomalous precession frequency extraction, including reconstruction, time-distribution fitting, and treatment of systematic uncertainties for the final three data-collection runs: Run-4, Run-5, and Run-6. This data represents a fourfold increase in statistics over the previous analysis release, halving the statistical uncertainty. The residual slow term from previous analyses is now well understood and documented in a systematic treatment. As of the writing of this dissertation, the theoretical prediction for the SM estimate of the muon’s anomalous magnetic moment is under debate, with two competing prediction methods, so a definitive comparison with theory is not available. The results submitted for experimental release use the kernel-ratio asymmetry method, contributing 115 parts per billion to the statistical uncertainty and 34 parts per billion to the systematic uncertainty. When combined with the previous analyses in earlier data runs, this thereby improves the measurement beyond the experimental goal and sets the world’s most precise measurement of the muon’s anomalous magnetic moment.

Israel, Scott Nathan [Boston U.]↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Security Assessment of Power Grids Based on Machine Learning Approach: Preprint

Data-driven security assessment provides key indicators on power system stability using simulations on scheduling models, as opposed to dynamic simulations that are more time-consuming. This paper investigates data-driven security assessment of power grids based on machine learning. Multivariate random forest regression is used as the machine learning algorithm due to its high robustness to the input data. Three stability issues are analyzed using the proposed machine learning tool, including transient stability, frequency stability and small signal stability. The estimation values from machine learning tool are compared with those from dynamic simulations. Results show that the proposed machine learning tool can effectively predict the stability margins for the three stability metrics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1993

Spatial correlations of interdecadal variation in global surface temperatures

We have analyzed spatial correlation patterns of interdecadal global surface temperature variability from an empirical perspective. Using multitaper coherence estimates from 140-yr records, we find that correlations between hemispheres are significant at about 95 percent confidence for nonrandomness for most of the frequency band in the 0.06-0.24 cyc/yr range. Coherence estimates of pairs of 100-yr grid-point temperature data series near 5-yr period reveal teleconnection patterns consistent with known patterns of ENSO variability. Significant correlated variability is observed near 15 year period, with the dominant teleconnection pattern largely confined to the Northern Hemisphere. Peak-to-peak Delta-T is at about 0.5 deg, with simultaneous warming and cooling of discrete patches on the earth's surface. A global average of this pattern would largely cancel.

Mann, Michael E.↗

DOE OSTI2022

TEAMER: DAISY Flow-noise Testing (Abstract)

Evaluating impacts of marine energy devices is generally difficult given the dynamic environment where these devices need to be placed. The University of Washington’s (UW) DAISY (The Drifting Acoustic Instrumentation SYstem) is designed to measure radiated noise around marine energy converters operating in energetic waves and currents. In currents, a primary limitation for measurement fidelity at low frequencies (< 100 Hz) is the potential for non-propagating “flow-noise” to mask propagating sound and inflate estimates of the radiated noise from marine energy converters at frequencies that overlap with hearing sensitivities of fish and some marine mammals. While free-drifting measurements help to minimize the relative velocity that produces flow-noise, significant levels were still observed during initial DAISY tests. This motivated the development of a fabric “flow shield” around the hydrophone that disrupts both flow-noise generation mechanisms proposed by the initial tests. First, the flow shield is a source of substantial drag which keeps the hydrophone package moving with the approximate velocity of the surrounding water, compensating for differential wind or current forcing on the surface expression. By minimizing relative velocity around the hydrophone, turbulence shed by the hydrophone is also minimized. Second, the flow shield creates a largely quiescent pocket around the hydrophone, minimizing advection of free stream turbulence over the hydrophone element. Field data collected in these experiments will test effectiveness of these flow shields and provide quantitative data use and deployment.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗