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Sensitivity of the Tropical Atmospheric Energy Balance to ENSO-Related SST Changes: Comparison of Climate Model Simulations to Observed Responses

This paper focuses on how fresh water and radiative fluxes over the tropical oceans change during ENSO warm and cold events and how these changes affect the tropical energy balance. At present, ENSO remains the most prominent known mode of natural variability at interannual time scales. While this natural perturbation to climate is quite distinct from possible anthropogenic changes in climate, adjustments in the tropical water and energy budgets during ENSO may give insight into feedback processes involving water vapor and cloud feedbacks. Although great advances have been made in understanding this phenomenon and realizing prediction skill over the past decade, our ability to document the coupled water and energy changes observationally and to represent them in climate models seems far from settled (Soden, 2000 J Climate). In a companion paper we have presented observational analyses, based principally on space-based measurements which document systematic changes in rainfall, evaporation, and surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes. Here we analyze several contemporary climate models run with observed SSTs over recent decades and compare SST-induced changes in radiation, precipitation, evaporation, and energy transport to observational results. Among these are the NASA / NCAR Finite Volume Model, the NCAR Community Climate Model, the NCEP Global Spectral Model, and the NASA NSIPP Model. Key disagreements between model and observational results noted in the recent literature are shown to be due predominantly to observational shortcomings. A reexamination of the Langley 8-Year Surface Radiation Budget data reveals errors in the SST surface longwave emission due to biased SSTs. Subsequent correction allows use of this data set along with ERBE TOA fluxes to infer net atmospheric radiative heating. Further analysis of recent rainfall algorithms provides new estimates for precipitation variability in line with interannual evaporation changes inferred from the da Silva, Young, Levitus COADS analysis. The overall results from our analysis suggest an increase (decrease) of the hydrologic cycle during ENSO warm (cold) events at the rate of about 5 W/sq m per K of SST change. Model results agree reasonably well with this estimate of sensitivity. This rate is slightly less than that which would be expected for constant relative humidity over the tropical oceans. There remain, however, significant quantitative uncertainties in cloud forcing changes in the models as compared to observations. These differences are examined in relationship to model convection and cloud parameterizations Analysis of the possible sampling and measurement errors compared to systematic model errors is also presented.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Consistency of ARESE II Cloud Absorption Estimates and Sampling Issues

Data from three cloudy days (March 3, 21, 29, 2000) of the ARM Enhanced Shortwave Experiment II (ARESE II) were analyzed. Grand averages of broadband absorptance among three sets of instruments were compared. Fractional solar absorptances were approx. 0.21-0.22 with the exception of March 3 when two sets of instruments gave values smaller by approx. 0.03-0.04. The robustness of these values was investigated by looking into possible sampling problems with the aid of 500 nm spectral fluxes. Grand averages of 500 nm apparent absorptance cover a wide range of values for these three days, namely from a large positive (approx. 0.011) average for March 3, to a small negative (approximately -0.03) for March 21, to near zero (approx. 0.01) for March 29. We present evidence suggesting that a large part of the discrepancies among the three days is due to the different nature of clouds and their non-uniform sampling. Hence, corrections to the grand average broadband absorptance values may be necessary. However, application of the known correction techniques may be precarious due to the sparsity of collocated flux measurements above and below the clouds. Our analysis leads to the conclusion that only March 29 fulfills all requirements for reliable estimates of cloud absorption, that is, the presence of thick, overcast, homogeneous clouds.

Oreopoulos, L.↗

Transpiring Cooling of a Scram-Jet Engine Combustion Chamber

The peak cold-wall heating rate generated in a combustion chamber of a scram-jet engine can exceed 2000 Btu/sq ft sec (approx. 2344 W/sq cm). Therefore, a very effective heat dissipation mechanism is required to sustain such a high heating load. This research focused on the transpiration cooling mechanism that appears to be a promising approach to remove a large amount of heat from the engine wall. The transpiration cooling mechanism has two aspects. First, initial computations suggest that there is a reduction, as much as 75%, in the heat flux incident on the combustion chamber wall due to the transpirant modifying the combustor boundary layer. Secondly, the heat reaching the combustor wall is removed from the structure in a very effective manner by the transpirant. It is the second of these two mechanisms that is investigated experimentally in the subject paper. A transpiration cooling experiment using a radiant heating method, that provided a heat flux as high as 200 Btu/sq ft sec ( approx. 234 W/sq cm) on the surface of a specimen, was performed. The experiment utilized an arc-lamp facility (60-kW radiant power output) to provide a uniform heat flux to a test specimen. For safety reasons, helium gas was used as the transpirant in the experiments. The specimens were 1.9-cm diameter sintered, powdered-stainless-steel tubes of various porosities and a 2.54cm square tube with perforated multi-layered walls. A 15-cm portion of each specimen was heated. The cooling effectivenes and efficiencies by transpiration for each specimen were obtained using the experimental results. During the testing, various test specimens displayed a choking phenomenon in which the transpirant flow was limited as the heat flux was increased. The paper includes a preliminary analysis of the transpiration cooling mechanism and a scaling conversion study that translates the results from helium tests into the case when a hydrogen medium is used.

Choi, Sang H.↗

Space Weather Architecture Options to Support Human and Robotic Deep Space Exploration

Understanding solar energetic particle (SEP) event characteristics is critical to the proper design of human and robotic space missions. This report details a study of operational response time for monitoring space weather for crewed flights, specifically targeting lunar and Mars missions. The NESC assessment team evaluated the required minimum latency for data streams and forecasts that will directly affect mission operations using a 41-year database (i.e., European Space Agency (ESA) Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modeling (SEPEM) RSDv2.0) of SEP events. The database contained 192 SEP events that resulted in a dose increase above background levels. Of those, 10% were “multiple events,” or events that occurred in quick succession. The analysis provides probabilistic values for time to peak flux and dose rate for the duration of each event. This NESC assessment also evaluated the SEP threshold levels for exploration missions to determine the relevant energy range of required proton measurements.

Solar energetic particle↗

Mechanisms Associated with Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves over the Contiguous United States

Heat waves are extreme climate events that have the potential to cause immense stress on human health, agriculture, and energy systems, so understanding the processes leading to their onset is crucial. There is no single accepted definition for heat waves, but they are generally described as a sustained amount of time where temperature exceeds a local threshold. Multiple different temperature variables are potentially relevant, as high values of both daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures can be detrimental to human health. In this study, we focus explicitly on the different mechanisms associated with summertime heat waves manifested during daytime versus nighttime hours over the contiguous United States. Heat waves are examined using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Over 1980–2018, the increase in the number of heat wave days per summer was generally stronger for nighttime heat wave days than daytime heat wave days, with localized regions of significant positive trends. Processes linked with daytime and nighttime heat waves are identified through composite analysis of precipitation, soil moisture, clouds, humidity and fluxes of heat and moisture. Daytime heat waves are associated with dry conditions, reduced cloud cover, and increased sensible heating. Mechanisms leading to nighttime heat waves differ regionally across the US, but they are typically associated with increased clouds, humidity and/or low-level temperature advection. In the Midwest US, enhanced moisture is transported from the Gulf of Mexico during nighttime heat waves.

Extreme events↗

CFD Simulations of the IHF 13-Inch Nozzle Flow: 55° Sphere-Cone Model, Manufactured Fences and Gaps

This paper reports computational analyses of tests in a high enthalpy arc-jet facility at NASA Ames Research Center. These tests were conducted using 23.6-cm diameter, 55° sphere-cone models placed in a free jet downstream of the 33.0-cm diameter conical nozzle in the 60-MW Interaction Heating Facility. Some of the sphere-cone models include surface features such as manufactured fences and gaps intended to simulate effects of differential recession, all of which disturb the flow, producing augmented heating locally and downstream. Test calibration data were obtained using slug and Gardon gage stagnation calorimeters, and a sphere-cone calorimeter model with six Gardon heat flux gages and five pressure gages. The present analysis comprises computational fluid dynamics simulations of the nonequilibrium flowfield in the facility nozzle and test box, including the models tested, and comparisons with the experimental measurements. Various issues related to testing are considered: diffuser flow capture, flow characterization based on the calorimeter data, effects of the model surface recession, and prediction of surface quantities for the models with surface features. These simulations take into account nonuniform total enthalpy profiles at the nozzle inlet as well as the expansion waves emanating from the nozzle exit and their effects on the model flowfields.

Arc-jets↗

Examining the Feasibility of Detailed Decomposition of Radiative Flux Anomalies to Cloud Changes

This presentation will explore the degree to which radiative flux anomalies in the last two decades seen by CERES can be interpreted as the result of changes in particular cloud types. A study of this kind is potentially enabled by the new CERES FlxByCldTyp (FBCT) product which provides combined Terra and Aqua daytime 1°-regional gridded daily and monthly top-of-the-atmosphere radiative fluxes and associated MODIS-derived cloud properties stratified by Cloud Top Pressure (CTP) and Cloud Optical Thickness (TAU), i.e., arrays of cloud properties and radiative fluxes resolved in CTP-TAU bins. It has been shown (Sun et al. 2022) that the FBCT time series of global flux anomalies tracks closely its SSF1deg and EBAF counterparts, indicating that these three products provide fluxes of consistent stability for interannual variability studies. We are thus in position to examine whether CERES regional or global radiative fluxes anomalies and trends are driven by changes in certain elements of FBCT flux arrays corresponding to particular cloud types. Anomalies in flux array elements will in turn be investigated in terms of cloud property variations within the CTP-TAU bins where the biggest flux anomalies are encountered. We will essentially seek to obtain the relative contributions to the anomalies of binned all-sky fluxes of changes in cloud fraction within cloud types and of changes in their overcast fluxes modulated by other cloud properties. Such an analysis holds great promise of unveiling the root causes of cloud-driven changes in the planetary radiation budget of the last two decades.

cloud↗

Modeling and Analysis of a Micro-reactor using the DireWolf Code Suite

Micro-reactors, specifically those cooled with heat pipes, are tightly coupled systems which require multi-physics tools to accurately model both steady-state and transient behavior. Idaho National Laboratory’s DireWolf code suite is tailor-built to model heat-pipe reactors. DireWolf’s ability to model the coupled steady-state behavior of a heat-pipe micro-reactor are demonstrated herein. The DireWolf modeling methodology is described, and a micro-reactor design is introduced. A full-core model is developed, and the steady-state coupled neutronics-thermal analysis is performed. Results of the analyses, including flux, power, and temperature distributions are presented and discussed. This is a Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC) led publication.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A dual-cooled hydrogen-oxygen rocket engine heat transfer analysis

The potential benefits of simultaneously using hydrogen and oxygen as rocket engine coolants are described. A plug-and-spool rocket engine was examined at heat fluxes ranging from 9290 to 163,500 kW/sq m, using a combined 3D conduction/advection analysis. Both counterflow and parallel flow cooling arrangements were analyzed. The results indicate that a significant amount of heat transfer to the oxygen occurs, reducing both the hot-side wall temperature of the rocket engine and also reducing the exit temperature of the hydrogen coolant. The total heat transferred to the oxygen was found to be largely independent of the oxygen coolant flow direction. The reduction in combustion chamber wall temperatures at throttled conditions is especially desirable since the analysis indicates that double temperature maxima, one at the throat and another in the combustion chamber, occur with a traditional hydrogen-only cooled engine. A dual-cooled engine eliminates any concern for overheating in the combustion chamber.

Kacynski, Kenneth J.↗

Optical and radio variability in blazars

An analysis is presented of the optical (0.44 micron) and radio flux density variations (4.8, 8.0, and 14.5 GHz) of the five best observed variable AGN, of which three are BL Lac objects and two are optically violent variable (OVV) quasars. For each object the nature of the variability at individual wavelengths is determined by using a structure function analysis and the autocorrelation function as calculated from the discrete correlation technique. Both techniques yield similar results, showing that the optical variations are similar for all objects and are a combination of flicker and shot noise. The radio variability is distinct, being described by shot noise (less variation at short times), with the two OVVs exhibiting the most extreme behavior. The time lag between the variations at the three radio frequencies and the optical flux is studied with the discrete cross-correlation function and the mean variance methods. It is concluded that the optical and radio emitting regions are physically related, exist on distinct time scales, and excite their synchrotron emitting plasmas differently.

Hufnagel, Beth R.↗

Observation of the Gamma-Ray Binary HESS J0632+057 with the H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS Telescopes

The results of gamma-ray observations of the binary system HESS J0632 + 057 collected during 450 hr over 15 yr, between 2004 and 2019, are presented. Data taken with the atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS at energies above 350 GeV were used together with observations at X-ray energies obtained with Swift-XRT, Chandra, XMM-Newton, NuSTAR, and Suzaku. Some of these observations were accompanied by measurements of the Hα emission line. A significant detection of the modulation of the very high-energy gamma-ray fluxes with a period of 316.7 ± 4.4 days is reported, consistent with the period of 317.3 ± 0.7 days obtained with a refined analysis of X-ray data. The analysis of data from four orbital cycles with dense observational coverage reveals short-timescale variability, with flux-decay timescales of less than 20 days at very high energies. Flux variations observed over a timescale of several years indicate orbit-to-orbit variability. The analysis confirms the previously reported correlation of X-ray and gamma-ray emission from the system at very high significance but cannot find any correlation of optical H$α$ parameters with fluxes at X-ray or gamma-ray energies in simultaneous observations. The key finding is that the emission of HESS J0632 + 057 in the X-ray and gamma-ray energy bands is highly variable on different timescales. The ratio of gamma-ray to X-ray flux shows the equality or even dominance of the gamma-ray energy range. This wealth of new data is interpreted taking into account the insufficient knowledge of the ephemeris of the system and discussed in the context of results reported on other gamma-ray binary systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Combining Satellite Data, Trajectory Modeling and Surface Insolation Measurements to Deduce the Direct Radiative Effect of Smoke Aerosol

In this paper, we have introduced a method of inferring the radiative effect of smoke aerosols using a technique that combines satellite remote sensing with trajectory modeling. The results shown here clearly show large flux biases between theoretical and measured radiative fluxes correlate with the arrival of smoke aerosol to the area. Further analysis is required to convincingly demonstrate that the reason for these differences is the radiative effect of the smoke aerosols. To do this, the estimated fluxes taken from the ERA-15 will be recomputed every 3 hours using International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data set entitled DX gridded to a 1o equal angle resolution (see paper 7B.2 for details). Surface radiometric and ancillary data for several more Canadian surface sites are being obtained at minute temporal resolution. The ultimate purpose of this research is to derive aerosol smoke maps for fire events such as this to be included in an aerosol climatology and be incorporated in the computation of the earth's surface radiation budget to better understand the radiative effect of aerosols.

Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.↗

FORTRAN program for induction motor analysis

A FORTRAN program for induction motor analysis is described. The analysis includes calculations of torque-speed characteristics, efficiency, losses, magnetic flux densities, weights, and various electrical parameters. The program is limited to three-phase Y-connected, squirrel-cage motors. Detailed instructions for using the program are given. The analysis equations are documented, and the sources of the equations are referenced. The appendixes include a FORTRAN symbol list, a complete explanation of input requirements, and a list of error messages.

Bollenbacher, G.↗

Scientific and Technical Support for the Galileo Net Flux Radiometer Experiment

Tasks required during the post launch period are briefly as follows: attend Project Science Group meetings; support in-flight checkouts; maintain and keep safe the spare instrument and ground support equipment (GSE); organize and maintain documentation; finish calibration measurements, documentation, and analysis; characterize and diagnose instrument anomalies; develop descent data analysis tools; and science data analysis and publication. This report provides background information on the net flux radiometer (NFR) instrument as well as being a complete progress report on the support for the Galileo NFR. experiment.

Sromovsky, Lawrence A.↗

Antiproton bounds on dark matter annihilation from a combined analysis using the DRAGON2 code

Abstract Early studies of the AMS-02 antiproton ratio identified a possible excess over the expected astrophysical background that could be fit by the annihilation of a weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP). However, recent efforts have shown that uncertainties in cosmic-ray propagation, the antiproton production cross-section, and correlated systematic uncertainties in the AMS-02 data, may combine to decrease or eliminate the significance of this feature. We produce an advanced analysis using the DRAGON2 code which, for the first time, simultaneously fits the antiproton ratio along with multiple secondary cosmic-ray flux measurements to constrain astrophysical and nuclear uncertainties. Compared to previous work, our analysis benefits from a combination of: (1) recently released AMS-02 antiproton data, (2) updated nuclear fragmentation cross-section fits, (3) a rigorous Bayesian parameter space scan that constrains cosmic-ray propagation parameters.We find no statistically significant preference for a dark matter signal and set strong constraints on WIMP annihilation tobb̅, ruling out annihilation at the thermal cross-section for dark matter masses below ∼ 200 GeV. We do find a positive residual that is consistent with previous work, and can be explained by a ∼ 70 GeV WIMP annihilating below the thermal cross-section. However, our default analysis finds this excess to have a local significance of only 2.8σ, which is decreased to 1.8σwhen the look-elsewhere effect is taken into account.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Underground muons from the direction of Cygnus X-3

The flux of underground muons from the direction of the binary Cygnus X-3 was measured by the Soudan 2 proton decay detector. This time-projection calorimeter is located at a depth of 2200 m (water equivalent) in northern Minnesota at latitude 48 deg N, longitude 92 deg W. An analysis was then performed that compared both the total observed flux and the observed flux per transit with the number of events expected in the absence of a source. This expected number of events was determined by combining the detector acceptance as a function of time with detector acceptance as a function of the local spatial coordinates. These functions were evaluated by use of off-source events. The direction of Cygnus X-3 was defined as a 2 deg half-angle cone, centered on the nominal source coordinates. This definition is consistent with the expected appearance of a point source in the Soudan 2 detector after consideration of track reconstruction errors, multiple scattering in the rock, and possible systematic effects. Details of the analysis and the results are presented.

Marshak, M. L.↗

Effects of solar magnetic field on cosmic rays

Aspects of the problem of galactic cosmic ray propagation, including inversion of the solar total magnetic field and an analysis of data related to the heliomagnetic cycle are discussed. It is noted that the global structure of the solar magnetic field results in an additional flux of galactic cosmic rays generated by curvature and gradient drifts. An analysis of heliomagnetic cycle data shows that the latitudinal gradient results in a N-S asymmetry, with the amplitude of the effect growing with depth in the atmosphere. The inversion of the solar total magnetic field, drift effects, and other space distributions are found to contribute to a 22-year cycle of solar activity.

Goncher, G. A.↗