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NASA NTRS2017

Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of a Mars Ascent Vehicle Concept

The design of a conceptual Mars ascent vehicle is a challenging problem. In order to aid the vehicle and mission concept design it is important to understand the driving design parameters and the expected performance in the presence of model errors and uncertainties. An existing six degree of freedom simulation model is analyzed on a statistical basis using the methods available in the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications toolkit. The methods utilized include conventional Monte Carlo techniques, metamodeling via polynomial chaos expansions, and global variance-based sensitivity analyses. Two additional analysis methods referred to as “Monte Carlo filtering” and ”Classification trees” are used to determine which uncertain parameters are driving the performance of the vehicle. Monte Carlo filtering provides a methodology to determine which parameters cause qualitatively different behavior while the classification trees use heuristics to partition the input space and assign probabilities to each partition. These methods serve as qualitative descriptors of model sensitivity while variance-based global sensitivity analysis seeks a quantitative mapping from total output variance to the variance of individual inputs. Application of these techniques to several outputs of a Mars ascent vehicle concept simulation indicates that only a select few input factors dominate their variance.

Noyes, Connor↗

NASA NTRS2022

Uncertainty Estimation for SMAP Level-1 Brightness Temperature Assimilation at Different Timescales

Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission brightness temperature (T(b) ) observations are assimilated into NASA’s Catchment Land Surface Model using an Ensemble Kalman filter to update simulations of surface and root-zone soil moisture. Different time series components of the T(b) observations are assimilated including anomalies, inter-annual variations, and high frequency variations. To optimize the weights that the data assimilation (DA) puts on the observations, the ratio between the uncertainties of modeled and observed T(b) is approximated using modeled and observed soil moisture uncertainties estimated using triple collocation analysis. In a benchmark experiment, T(b) observations are assimilated using a spatially constant 4 Kelvin (K) observation uncertainty, as in the operational SMAP Level-4 algorithm. All DA experiments exhibit notable skill improvements in most regions. Improvements are largest for the inter-annual variations in the simulations of both surface and root-zone soil moisture (mean improvements in terms of Pearson correlation (-) are 0.08 and 0.06, respectively). Anomaly simulations improve similarly (0.07), and improvements in the high-frequency variations are only observed for surface soil moisture simulations (0.06). No notable difference in skill - neither improvement nor deterioration - is observed between the experiments that use optimized observation uncertainty parameters and the 4 K benchmark experiment. This may be explained by the presence of large observation operator errors, which are analytically shown to have the potential to render post-update uncertainty insensitive to inaccuracies in estimates of the Kalman gain. These results have important implications for the design of soil moisture DA systems, in particular for parameterizing model and observation uncertainties.

Hydrology↗

DOE OSTI2026

Bench-Scale Development of Promoted High-Capacity Structured Sorbents (Final Technical Report)

The project objective was to develop high-capacity structured sorbent capable of achieving low CO 2 removal from air. The sorbent framework consists of an amine-functionalized onto hydrophobic polymer backbone with an added promoter. The functionalized amine provides high CO 2 capacity and adsorption rates and the polymer backbone to reduce water uptake. For the sorbent development, multiple functionalized amines and promoters were assessed to select a candidate that achieved high CO 2 capacity, high adsorption rate, and high stability. A sorbent-coated filter design was selected as the structured sorbent, which provides high sorbent loading capacity and contains an electrically conductive nonwoven filter substrate that can be Joule-heated to provide efficient utilization of available electricity for sorbent regeneration. A commercial partner operated a pilot filter manufacturing line to produce the filter panels coated with the developed sorbent. A 1 kg CO 2 /day bench unit was designed and fabricated to test the structured filter sorbent. The key achievements from the structured sorbent development activity were demonstrating that existing filter industrial-scale processes can be used for manufacturing Susteon’s structured sorbent and completing a proof-of-concept demonstration of the commercially manufactured structured sorbent filters for CO 2 capture from air with direct, Joule-heated regeneration. A techno-economic assessment with sensitivity analysis was conducted on a 100,000 TPY facility with 85% operating capacity. Through sorbent optimization and process design improvements, it is estimated that the cost of capture was reduced from $\$$349/tCO 2 to $\$$241/tCO 2 . The TEA projects further reductions to $165/tCO 2 through enhancements in CO 2 adsorption rate and sorbent capacity and reducing manufacturing and scale up risks. A life cycle analysis was conducted on the same 100,000 TPY facility and confirmed that the facility’s electricity demand drives its greenhouse gas impact. It was determined that electricity supplied through the current grid mix would result in net-positive CO 2 emissions and that achieving net-negative emissions is only possible by powering the system with renewable electricity or fossil fuel sources equipped with carbon capture and sequestration.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1984

Flight tests of the Digital Integrated Automatic Landing System (DIALS)

The design, development, implementation and flight tests of the Digital Integrated Automatic Landing System (DIALS) are discussed. The system was implemented and flight tested on the Transport Systems Research Vehicle (TSRV), a Boeing 737-100. The design uses modern optimal control methods. The direct digital design obtained uses a 10 Hz rate for the sampling of sensors and the control commands. The basic structure of the control law consists of a steady state Kalman filter followed by a control gain matrix. The sensor information used includes Microwave Landing System (MLS) position, attitude, calibrated airspeed, and body accelerations. The phases of the final approach considered are localized and steep glideslope capture (which may be performed simultaneously or independently), localizer and glideslope track, crab/decrab, and flare to touchdown. The system can capture, track, and flare from conventional, as well as steep, glideslopes ranging from 2.5 deg to 5.5 deg. All of the modes of the control law including the Kalman filters were implemented on the TSRV flight computers which use fixed point arithmetic with 16 bit words. The implementation considerations are described as well as an analysis of the flight test results.

Halyo, N.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Filter distortion effects on telemetry signal-to-noise ratio

The effect of filtering on the Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) of a coherently demodulated band-limited signal is determined in the presence of worse-case amplitude ripple. The problem is formulated mathematically as an optimization problem in the L2-Hilbert space. The form of the worst-cast amplitude ripple is specified, and the degradation in the SNR is derived in a closed form expression. It is shown that when the maximum passband amplitude ripple is 2 delta (peak to peak), the SNR is degraded by at most (1 - delta squared), even when the ripple is unknown or uncompensated. For example, an SNR loss of less than 0.01 dB due to amplitude ripple can be assured by keeping the amplitude ripple to under 0.42 dB.

Sadr, R.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Optimal post-experiment estimation of poorly modeled dynamic systems

Recently, a novel strategy for post-experiment state estimation of discretely-measured dynamic systems has been developed. The method accounts for errors in the system dynamic model equations in a more general and rigorous manner than do filter-smoother algorithms. The dynamic model error terms do not require the usual process noise assumptions of zero-mean, symmetrically distributed random disturbances. Instead, the model error terms require no prior assumptions other than piecewise continuity. The resulting state estimates are more accurate than filters for applications in which the dynamic model error clearly violates the typical process noise assumptions, and the available measurements are sparse and/or noisy. Estimates of the dynamic model error, in addition to the states, are obtained as part of the solution of a two-point boundary value problem, and may be exploited for numerous reasons. In this paper, the basic technique is explained, and several example applications are given. Included among the examples are both state estimation and exploitation of the model error estimates.

Mook, D. Joseph↗

NASA NTRS2010

SPOT Program

A Spacecraft Position Optimal Tracking (SPOT) program was developed to process Global Positioning System (GPS) data, sent via telemetry from a spacecraft, to generate accurate navigation estimates of the vehicle position and velocity (state vector) using a Kalman filter. This program uses the GPS onboard receiver measurements to sequentially calculate the vehicle state vectors and provide this information to ground flight controllers. It is the first real-time ground-based shuttle navigation application using onboard sensors. The program is compact, portable, self-contained, and can run on a variety of UNIX or Linux computers. The program has a modular objec-toriented design that supports application-specific plugins such as data corruption remediation pre-processing and remote graphics display. The Kalman filter is extensible to additional sensor types or force models. The Kalman filter design is also strong against data dropouts because it uses physical models from state and covariance propagation in the absence of data. The design of this program separates the functionalities of SPOT into six different executable processes. This allows for the individual processes to be connected in an a la carte manner, making the feature set and executable complexity of SPOT adaptable to the needs of the user. Also, these processes need not be executed on the same workstation. This allows for communications between SPOT processes executing on the same Local Area Network (LAN). Thus, SPOT can be executed in a distributed sense with the capability for a team of flight controllers to efficiently share the same trajectory information currently being computed by the program. SPOT is used in the Mission Control Center (MCC) for Space Shuttle Program (SSP) and International Space Station Program (ISSP) operations, and can also be used as a post -flight analysis tool. It is primarily used for situational awareness, and for contingency situations.

Smith, Jason T.↗

NASA NTRS2020

The influence of assimilating leaf area index in a land surface model on global water fluxes and storages

Vegetation plays a fundamental role not only in theenergy and carbon cycles but also in the global water balanceby controlling surface evapotranspiration (ET). Thus, accu-rately estimating vegetation-related variables has the poten-tial to improve our understanding and estimation of the dy-namic interactions between the water, energy, and carbon cy-cles. This study aims to assess the extent to which a land sur-face model (LSM) can be optimized through the assimilationof leaf area index (LAI) observations at the global scale. Twoobserving system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are per-formed to evaluate the efficiency of assimilating LAI into anLSM through an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to estimateLAI, ET, canopy-interception evaporation (CIE), canopy wa-ter storage (CWS), surface soil moisture (SSM), and terres-trial water storage (TWS). Results show that the LAI dataassimilation framework not only effectively reduces errorsin LAI model simulations but also improves all the modeledwater flux and storage variables considered in this study (ET,CIE, CWS, SSM, and TWS), even when the forcing pre-cipitation is strongly positively biased (extremely wet con-ditions). However, it tends to worsen some of the modeledwater-related variables (SSM and TWS) when the forcingprecipitation is affected by a dry bias. This is attributed tothe fact that the amount of water in the LSM is conservative,and the LAI assimilation introduces more vegetation, whichrequires more water than what is available within the soil

Terrestrial Vegetation↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multi-User Capacity for Cyclic Prefix Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum with Linear Detection and Precoding

Cyclic Prefix Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum (CP-DSSS) is a promising solution for futuristic 6G ultra-reliable low latency communications (URLLC) and massive machine type communication (mMTC) applications, where the CP-DSSS waveform would operate as a secondary network at the same frequencies as the primary network but at much lower SNR. In this paper, we show per-user capacity for multi-user scenarios, where simple matched filtering (MF) is performed on the uplink (UL) and time-reversal (TR) precoding is used on the downlink (DL). When operating in the low SNR regime, CP-DSSS achieves per-user capacity near the optimum single-user capacity by using a MF detector at the receiver for the UL. TR precoding converges to the optimal capacity as the number of antennas at the hub/gateway increases. Given the near-optimal performance of MF detection and TR precoding for each of the users, CP-DSSS can be implemented with simple device transceiver structures, reducing per-unit cost for massively deployed 6G networks.

5G and Beyond Communications↗

DOE OSTI2024

Targeted materials discovery using Bayesian algorithm execution

Rapid discovery and synthesis of future materials requires intelligent data acquisition strategies to navigate large design spaces. A popular strategy is Bayesian optimization, which aims to find candidates that maximize material properties; however, materials design often requires finding specific subsets of the design space which meet more complex or specialized goals. We present a framework that captures experimental goals through straightforward user-defined filtering algorithms. These algorithms are automatically translated into one of three intelligent, parameter-free, sequential data collection strategies (SwitchBAX, InfoBAX, and MeanBAX), bypassing the time-consuming and difficult process of task-specific acquisition function design. Our framework is tailored for typical discrete search spaces involving multiple measured physical properties and short time-horizon decision making. We demonstrate this approach on datasets for TiO 2 nanoparticle synthesis and magnetic materials characterization, and show that our methods are significantly more efficient than state-of-the-art approaches. Overall, our framework provides a practical solution for navigating the complexities of materials design, and helps lay groundwork for the accelerated development of advanced materials.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1989

Optimal focal-plane restoration

Image restoration can be implemented efficiently by calculating the convolution of the digital image and a small kernel during image acquisition. Processing the image in the focal-plane in this way requires less computation than traditional Fourier-transform-based techniques such as the Wiener filter and constrained least-squares filter. Here, the values of the convolution kernel that yield the restoration with minimum expected mean-square error are determined using a frequency analysis of the end-to-end imaging system. This development accounts for constraints on the size and shape of the spatial kernel and all the components of the imaging system. Simulation results indicate the technique is effective and efficient.

Reichenbach, Stephen E.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Long short-term memory embedded nudging schemes for nonlinear data assimilation of geophysical flows

Reduced rank nonlinear filters are increasingly utilized in data assimilation of geophysical flows, but often require a set of ensemble forward simulations to estimate forecast covariance. On the other hand, predictor-corrector type nudging approaches are still attractive due to their simplicity of implementation when more complex methods need to be avoided. However, optimal estimate of nudging gain matrix might be cumbersome. In this paper, we put forth a fully nonintrusive recurrent neural network approach based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) embedding architecture to estimate the nudging term, which plays a role not only to force the state trajectories to the observations but also acts as a stabilizer. Furthermore, our approach relies on the power of archival data and the trained model can be retrained effectively due to power of transfer learning in any neural network applications. In order to verify the feasibility of the proposed approach, we perform twin experiments using Lorenz 96 system. Our results demonstrate that the proposed LSTM nudging approach yields more accurate estimates than both extended Kalman filter (EKF) and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) when only sparse observations are available. With the availability of emerging AI-friendly and modular hardware technologies and heterogeneous computing platforms, we articulate that our simplistic nudging framework turns out to be computationally more efficient than either the EKF or EnKF approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

FY26 MID-YEAR REPORT 238 Pu Measurement in Bulk Environmental Samples by Thermal Ionization Mass Spectrometry (TIMS)

Funding was received in December 2026 to optimize a nascent measurement capability for mass spectrometry of 238 Pu, as it would apply to relevant environmental collections in safeguards applications, i.e. NWAL swipes or other bulk collections such as soil, sediment, waters, or air filters. The measurement relies on differing ionization temperatures for U and Pu during thermal ionization and therefore leverages TIMS to partially separate and measure these elements. Collected counts of 238 Pu can be mathematically corrected for interfering counts of background 238 U, by addition of a U tracer (e.g. 235 U) to account for the 238 U present. The method has undergone initial characterization at LANL regarding detection limit, precision, and accuracy but requires further applicability-testing for possible use in safeguards.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1992

Programmable Hyperspectral Imaging Mapper

Programmable hyperspectral imaging mapper (PHIMAP) is conceptual generic advanced spectral imaging system that scans swath along ground track from airplane or spacecraft in orbit. Features include spectrally agile filters and processing on focal-plane array. Provides both high spatial resolution and large number of spectral channels. Can be programmed to trade spectral resolution andspectral coverage flexibly against signal-to-noise ratio to optimize utility of image data from scenes of spectrally and spatially varying brightness.

Cutts, James A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assessment of Reduced-Kinetics Mechanisms for Combustion of Jet Fuel in CFD Applications

A computational effort was undertaken to analyze the details of fluid flow in Lean-Direct Injection (LDI) combustors for next-generation LDI design. The National Combustor Code (NCC) was used to perform reacting flow computations on single-element LDI injector configurations. The feasibility of using a reduced chemical-kinetics approach, which optimizes the reaction rates and species to model the emissions characteristics typical of lean-burning gas-turbine combustors, was assessed. The assessments were performed with Reynolds- Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) and Time-Filtered Navier Stokes (TFNS) time-integration, with a Lagrangian spray model with the NCC code. The NCC predictions for EINOx and combustor exit temperature were compared with experimental data for two different single-element LDI injector configurations, with 60deg and 45deg axially swept swirler vanes. The effects of turbulence-chemistry interaction on the predicted flow in a typical LDI combustor were studied with detailed comparisons of NCC TFNS with experimental data.

Ajmani, Kumud↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Estimation With Range Depended Sensor Model

This paper focuses on the improvement of object detection accuracy taking into account the sensor’s reading degradation as the relative range increases. The approach is based on the assumption that range measurement error depends on the actual range. Specifically, we model the measurement error as a proportional to the actual range term plus a zero-mean, Gaussian distributed, and uncorrelated process. The tracking problem is considered in a mixed continuous-discrete time domain, where the target dynamics is in continuous-time and the measurements are in discrete-time, which is an optimal choice in many tracking and navigation applications. We adopt a commonly used continuous time coordinate-uncoupled white-noise acceleration model for a point object to describe the target motion, and use Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) framework to estimate the target's state and the unknown proportionality coefficient.

Vahram Stepanyan↗

NASA NTRS2015

Evidence-Based Recommendations for Optimizing Light in Day-to-Day Spaceflight Operations

NASA Behavioral Health and Performance Element (BHP) personnel have previously reported on efforts to transition evidence‐based recommendations for a flexible lighting system on the International Space Station (ISS). Based on these recommendations, beginning in 2016 the ISS will replace the current fluorescent‐based lights with an LED‐based system to optimize visual performance, facilitate circadian alignment, promote sleep, and hasten schedule shifting. Additional efforts related to lighting countermeasures in spaceflight operations have also been underway. As an example, a recent BHP research study led by investigators at Harvard Medical School and Brigham and Women's Hospital, evaluated the acceptability, feasibility, and effectiveness of blue‐enriched light exposure during exercise breaks for flight controllers working the overnight shift in the Mission Control Center (MCC) at NASA Johnson Space Center. This effort, along with published laboratory studies that have demonstrated the effectiveness of appropriately timed light for promoting alertness, served as an impetus for new light options, and educational protocols for flight controllers. In addition, a separate set of guidelines related to the light emitted from electronic devices, were provided to the Astronaut Office this past year. These guidelines were based on an assessment led by NASA's Lighting Environment Test Facility that included measuring the spectral power distribution, irradiance, and radiance of light emitted from ISS‐grade laptops and I‐Pads, as well as Android devices. Evaluations were conducted with and without the use of off‐the‐shelf screen filters as well as a software application that touts minimizing the short‐wave length of the visible light spectrum. This presentation will focus on the transition for operations process related to lighting countermeasures in the MCC, as well as the evidence to support recommendations for optimal use of laptops, I‐Pads, and Android devices during all phases of spaceflight operations.

Whitmire, Alexandra↗

NASA NTRS1979

Optimal estimator model for human spatial orientation

A model is being developed to predict pilot dynamic spatial orientation in response to multisensory stimuli. Motion stimuli are first processed by dynamic models of the visual, vestibular, tactile, and proprioceptive sensors. Central nervous system function is then modeled as a steady-state Kalman filter which blends information from the various sensors to form an estimate of spatial orientation. Where necessary, this linear central estimator has been augmented with nonlinear elements to reflect more accurately some highly nonlinear human response characteristics. Computer implementation of the model has shown agreement with several important qualitative characteristics of human spatial orientation, and it is felt that with further modification and additional experimental data the model can be improved and extended. Possible means are described for extending the model to better represent the active pilot with varying skill and work load levels.

Borah, J.↗