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NASA NTRS1984

Comparison of the solar cosmic ray events on May 7, 1978, and November 22, 1977

Neutron monitor data from the IMP 7 and 8 satellites are used in the present analysis of the cosmic ray events of Nov. 22, 1977, and May 7, 1978, in order to determine the energy spectra of the solar protons from 50 MeV to 10 GeV, together with pitch angle distributions, intensity-time profiles, and anisotropy-time profiles. The solar proton energy spectra obtained agree with the overlapping energy range when the pitch angle distribution is taken into account, and it is noted that the energy spectra covering three decades of energy and eight of intensity, together with their time variations, were very similar for the two events. The May 1978 event is important for the study of solar particle acceleration and their subsequent injection into the interplanetary medium. Although the solar proton propagation of the November 1977 event was diffusive, the solar particle injection was also time-extended and energy-dependent.

Debrunner, H.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Exploratory Efforts to Constrain Geologic Material Properties from Remote Sensing Data: A Joint Study

Identification and characterization of underground events from surface or remote data requires a thorough understanding of the rock material properties. However, material properties usually come from borehole data, which is expensive and not always available. A potential alternative is to use topographic characteristics to approximate the strength, but this has never been done before quantitatively. Here we present the results from the first steps towards this goal. We have found that there are strong correlations between compressive and tensile strengths and slopes, but these correlations vary depending on data analysis details. Rugosity may be better correlated to strength than slope values. More comprehensive analyses are needed to fully understand the best method of predicting strength from topography for this area. We also found that misalignment of multiple GIS datasets can have a large influence on the ability to make interpretations. Lastly, these results will require further study in a variety of climatic conditions before being applicable to other sites.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2014

Single-Event Effect Testing of the Cree C4D40120D Commercial 1200V Silicon Carbide Schottky Diode

This study was undertaken to determine the single event effect (SEE) susceptibility of the commercial silicon carbide 1200V Schottky diode manufactured by Cree, Inc. Heavy-ion testing was conducted at the Texas A&M University Cyclotron Single Event Effects Test Facility (TAMU). Its purpose was to evaluate this device as a candidate for use in the Solar-Electric Propulsion flight project.

silicon carbide (SiC)↗

NASA NTRS2019

Negative extreme events in gross primary productivity and their drivers in China during the past three decades

Climate extremes have remarkable impacts on ecosystems and are expected to increase with future global warming. However, only few studies have focused on the ecological extreme events and their drivers in China. In this study, we carried out an analysis of negative extreme events in gross primary productivity (GPP) in China and the sub-regions during 1982–2015, using monthly GPP simulated by 12 process-based models (TRENDYv6) and an observation-based model (Yao-GPP). Extremes were defined as the negative 5th percentile of GPP anomalies, which were further merged into individual extreme events using a three-dimensional contiguous algorithm. Spatio-temporal patterns of negative GPP anomalies were analyzed by taking the 1000 largest extreme events into consideration. Results showed that the effects of extreme events decreased annual GPP by 2.8% (i.e. 208 TgC/year) in TRENDY models and 2.3% (i.e. 151 TgC/year) in Yao-GPP. Hotspots of extreme GPP deficits were mainly observed in North China (−53 gC/sq.m year) in TRENDY models and Northeast China (−42 gC/sq.m year) in Yao-GPP. For China as a whole, attribution analyses suggested that extreme low precipitation was associated with 40%–50% of extreme negative GPP events. Most events in northern and western China could be explained by meteorological droughts (i.e. low precipitation) while GPP extreme events in southern China were more associated with temperature extremes, in particular with cold spells. GPP was revealed to be much more sensitive to heat/drought than to cold/wet extreme events. Combined with projected changes in climate extremes in China, GPP negative anomalies caused by drought events in northern China and by temperature extremes in southern China might be more prominent in the future.

Climate change↗

NASA NTRS2015

Representing Extremes in Agricultural Models

AgMIP and related projects are conducting several activities to understand and improve crop model response to extreme events. This involves crop model studies as well as the generation of climate datasets and scenarios more capable of capturing extremes. Models are typically less responsive to extreme events than we observe, and miss several forms of extreme events. Models also can capture interactive effects between climate change and climate extremes. Additional work is needed to understand response of markets and economic systems to food shocks. AgMIP is planning a Coordinated Global and Regional Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Production and Food Security with an aim to inform the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

Agricultural systems↗

NASA NTRS2005

Solar Type II Radio Bursts and IP Type II Events

We have examined radio data from the WAVES experiment on the Wind spacecraft in conjunction with ground-based data in order to investigate the relationship between the shocks responsible for metric type II radio bursts and the shocks in front of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The bow shocks of fast, large CMEs are strong interplanetary (IP) shocks, and the associated radio emissions often consist of single broad bands starting below approx. 4 MHz; such emissions were previously called IP type II events. In contrast, metric type II bursts are usually narrowbanded and display two harmonically related bands. In addition to displaying complete dynamic spectra for a number of events, we also analyze the 135 WAVES 1 - 14 MHz slow-drift time periods in 2001-2003. We find that most of the periods contain multiple phenomena, which we divide into three groups: metric type II extensions, IP type II events, and blobs and bands. About half of the WAVES listings include probable extensions of metric type II radio bursts, but in more than half of these events, there were also other slow-drift features. In the 3 yr study period, there were 31 IP type II events; these were associated with the very fastest CMEs. The most common form of activity in the WAVES events, blobs and bands in the frequency range between 1 and 8 MHz, fall below an envelope consistent with the early signatures of an IP type II event. However, most of this activity lasts only a few tens of minutes, whereas IP type II events last for many hours. In this study we find many examples in the radio data of two shock-like phenomena with different characteristics that occur simultaneously in the metric and decametric/hectometric bands, and no clear example of a metric type II burst that extends continuously down in frequency to become an IP type II event. The simplest interpretation is that metric type II bursts, unlike IP type II events, are not caused by shocks driven in front of CMEs.

Cane, H. V.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Extreme Storm Events in an Ensemble of High‐Resolution Projections

This study uses different downscaling techniques and reference observations to investigate the characteristics of extreme storm events over the conterminous United States in historical and a projected future scenario. While previous studies agree on the projected changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes, there is a lack of consensus regarding how their size will change in response to an increase in radiative forcing. Moreover, the influence of different downscaling techniques on their characteristics has not been thoroughly examined. This study employs an ensemble of high‐resolution projections derived from six CMIP6 GCMs, using dynamical, statistical and artificial intelligence based downscaling techniques and two reference observations. Overall, we find noticeable differences in the size, average depth, and total precipitation volume of these storms among the climate ensembles in the historical period. Despite these differences in the historical period, we find consistent future changes across various ensembles. We find a robust projected increase in storm size during Winter and Spring but a decrease in size during Summer in the East. Nevertheless, irrespective of changes in their size, extreme storms are projected to intensify across all the ensembles and seasons.

Rastogi, Deeksha [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗

NASA NTRS1993

More About Laser Scanner Tests For Single-Event Upsets

Two reports describe preliminary theoretical and experimental studies based on method described in "Laser Scanner Tests For Single-Event Upsets" (NPO-18216). Laser-scan and heavy-ion data found correlated within factor of two. Method of testing for single-event upsets intended to overcome disadvantages of, complement, and/or substitute for more-expensive cyclotron-testing method, which does not provide spatial resolution.

Kim, Quiesup↗

NASA NTRS2023

Solar Activity Relations in Energetic Electron Events Measured By the MESSENGER Mission

Aims. We perform a statistical study of the relations between the properties of solar energetic electron (SEE) events measured by the MESSENGER mission from 2010 to 2015 and the parameters of the respective parent solar activity phenomena in order to identify the potential correlations between them. During the time of analysis, the MESSENGER heliocentric distance varied between 0.31 and 0.47 au. Methods. We used a published list of 61 SEE events measured by MESSENGER, which includes information on the near-relativistic electron peak intensities, the peak-intensity energy spectral indices, and the measured X-ray peak intensity of the flares related to the SEE events. Taking advantage of multi-viewpoint remote-sensing observations, we reconstructed, whenever possible, the associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and shock waves; and we determined the three-dimensional (3D) properties (location, speed, and width) of the CMEs and the maximum speed of the 3D CME-driven shocks in the corona. We used different methods (Spearman, Pearson, and a Bayesian approach, namely the Kelly method to linear regression) to estimate the correlation coefficients between the flare intensity, maximum speed at the apex of the CME-driven shock, CME speed at the apex, and CME width with the electron peak intensities and with the energy spectral indices. In this statistical study, we considered and addressed the limitations of the particle instrument on board MESSENGER (elevated background intensity level, anti-Sun pointing). Results. There is an asymmetry to the east in the range of connection angles (CAs) for which the SEE events present the highest peak intensities, where the CA is the longitudinal separation between the footpoint of the magnetic field connecting to the spacecraft and the flare location. Based on this asymmetry, we define a subsample of well-connected events as when −65° ≤ CA ≤ +33°. For the well-connected sample, we find moderate to strong correlations between the near-relativistic electron peak intensity and the 3D CME-driven shock maximum speed at the apex (Spearman: cc = 0.53 ± 0.05; Pearson: cc = 0.65 ± 0.04; Kelly: cc = 0.87 ± 0.20), the flare peak intensity (Spearman: cc = 0.63 ± 0.03; Pearson: cc = 0.59 ± 0.03; Kelly: cc = 0.74 ± 0.30), and the 3D CME speed at the apex (Spearman: cc = 0.50 ± 0.04; Pearson: cc = 0.46 ± 0.03; Kelly: cc = 0.60 ± 0.39). When including poorly connected events (full sample), the relations between the peak intensities and the solar-activity phenomena are blurred, showing lower correlation coefficients. Conclusions. Based on the comparison of the correlation coefficients presented in this study using near 0.4 au data, (1) both flare and shock-related processes may contribute to the acceleration of near relativistic electrons in large SEE events, in agreement with previous studies based on near 1 au data; and (2) the maximum speed of the CME-driven shock is a better parameter to investigate particle-acceleration-related mechanisms than the average CME speed, as suggested by the stronger correlation with the SEE peak intensities.

Sun↗

DOE OSTI2026

How Frequent Will the Rarest Daily Rainfall Records of Hurricane Ida’s Remnants Be in the Future?

Abstract Gaining continued insights into the impact of global warming on the occurrence of hurricane-associated intense record downpours is essential for building climate resilient communities. This study investigates projected future changes in extreme rainfall over the Northeast United States, as represented by extreme daily amounts during Hurricane Ida in 2021. We used historical control simulations of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model generated from 40 years of weather events (1980–2014, 12 km) forced by the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis. These simulations are thermodynamically modified (2060–2100) via an imposed warming for the high-emission scenario of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP585) from a range of general circulation models. Ground observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (1950–2014) and WRF simulations (historical, 1980–2014, and future, 2060–2100) are integrated into a nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) framework to assess the frequency of Ida’s heaviest daily rain rates under the SSP585 scenario. Results show that Ida’s daily maximum rainfall recorded at different observation locations was higher than the single highest September daily maximum observed (1950–2014) for 5 out of 17 stations (∼30% of the stations). Ida-like extreme daily rain rates are projected to be, on average, more than 2 times more likely to occur at the end of the century in the simulations (with some regions as high as 5 times). This work demonstrates that integrating a high-resolution atmospheric model’s present-day and thermodynamically modified future simulations along with ground observations, within a nonstationary statistical framework, is crucial for understanding changing characteristics of extreme weather events. Significance Statement Daily scale extreme precipitation is expected to become more frequent and severe, as evidenced by observations and model simulations. While it is important to investigate how these intensifying heavy rainfall events affect current engineering standards, fewer studies have contextualized how warming impacts the most extreme rainfall from a single storm event relative to historical heavy downpours. In this study, we focused on the daily extreme rainfall associated with the extratropical transition of Hurricane Ida (2021), particularly over the northeastern United States—some of which exceeded the commonly used hydrologic design criteria for a 100-yr storm. Using a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation, we investigated how continued warming may influence the frequency of such daily rain rates. Under a high-emission scenario, these events are projected to become up to 5 times more likely at the end of the twenty-first century.

Dollan, Ishrat J↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cumulative Noise Metric Design Considerations for the Nasa Quesst Community Test Campaign With the X-59 Aircraft

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) plans to collect X-59 aircraft dose-response data to inform international regulators in their efforts to establish acceptable noise standards to replace the current ban on overland supersonic commercial flight. For this upcoming community test campaign, the sound level from a supersonic overflight of the X-59 constitutes a single-event dose, and an end-of-day survey after multiple flight events constitutes a cumulative response. This study considers how X-59 community tests could be designed to explore the relationship between multiple single events and cumulative annoyance response. Presently, a day-night level summation of single-event doses formulates the cumulative dose; however, a generalization method may improve the understanding of the linkage between multiple single events and cumulative response. This work utilizes an analysis method that employs a parameter to vary the cumulative dose metric such that it can represent the loudest single event, remain as the day-night level summation, or be more responsive to the number of events. The analysis is demonstrated on simulated dose-response datasets derived from previous NASA field studies and from expectations of X-59 community tests. Results demonstrate that certain dose designs are more efficient than others in determining the analysis parameter.

dose-response modeling↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cumulative Noise Metric Design Considerations for the NASA Quesst Community Test Campaign With the X-59 Aircraft

dose-response modeling↗

DOE OSTI2021

Legacy effects of drought on tree growth responses to hurricanes

Natural perturbations, including hurricanes and severe droughts, are becoming more frequent and intense in the tropics, yet our understanding of forest responses to these events is still limited. While the relationships between extreme climatic events and tree mortality are frequently studied, responses of trees that survived such perturbations have been rarely reported. Perturbations and their effects can be quite variable, and trees can respond both positively and negatively to them, depending on their sensitivity and opportunistic behavior. Understanding the potential variation in responses both within and among species is important for building predictions of forest responses. We studied tree growth responses (i.e., changes relative to standard conditions) to hurricanes and drought events in Puerto Rico across six common and broadly distributed species. We examined whether there is a congruence in responses to these contrasting extreme climatic events. We show that trees are particularly susceptible to droughts but display a wide range of responses to hurricanes. Despite the high stochasticity in the impacts of hurricanes, trees that showed reduced growth during previous droughts tend to show reduced growth during the hurricanes as well. Our results demonstrate that trees subjected to different and successive major climatic stresses have consistent declines in their performance. Projected increases in the severity of droughts and tropical storms could have an accumulated, and possibly compound, impact on tree growth. Long-term demographic studies are necessary to understand legacy effects of species responses to extreme climatic perturbations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Synchrophasor Measurements-based Events Detection Using Deep Learning

Deep learning algorithms have been developed for phasor measurement units (PMUs) analysis aiming at providing grid operators to observe and react to significant real-time changes in the grid associated with multiple factors (e.g., power generation and load variations, different type of faults, and equipment mailfunction), or for offline post-event system diagnostics. In this study, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based deep neural network (DNN) is adopted and evaluated to identify the most appropriate model configurations for event detection and longer-term anomalous pattern extraction. The proposed DNN model shows the potential on long-term predictions with the ability to capture nonlinear and nonstationary mixture complex patterns in PMU datasets. Real-world PMU in the WECC system were used for model development and validation.

deep learning↗

NASA NTRS1981

The statistical character of Pc 4 magnetic pulsations at synchronous orbit

A statistical study of 215 magnetic pulsation events identified on the basis of waveform and period as Pc 4 (45- to 150-s period) observed at synchronous orbit by ATS 6 is reported. The study was designed to be similar to that done with Pc 3 (10- to 45-s period) by Arthur et al. (1977). These Pc 4 are found to occur most often near 1800 local time but are observed at all local times. The dominant period is approximately 100 s, but a secondary peak in the distribution occurred at approximately 53 s. They tend to be nearly linearly polarized, principally transverse to the ambient magnetic field. The Pc 4 are found to divide naturally into two classes (radial and azimuthal) on the basis of the azimuth of the major axis of polarization. These classes divide further into low-frequency (less than or equal to 0.015 Hz) and high-frequency (greater than or equal to 0.015 Hz) classes. These four classes organize the remaining wave characteristics quite well. Division of the Pc 4 events into these classes does not lead to identification of a single source mechanism as it did with Pc 3. However, some correspondence between the classes and various proposed mechanisms does exist.

Arthur, C. W.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Path Sampling for Rare Events Boosted by Machine Learning

The study by Jung et al. introduced Artificial Intelligence for Molecular Mechanism Discovery (AIMMD), a novel sampling algorithm that integrates machine learning to enhance the efficiency of transition path sampling (TPS). By enabling on-the-fly estimation of the committor probability and simultaneously deriving a human-interpretable reaction coordinate, AIMMD offers a robust framework for elucidating the mechanistic pathways of complex molecular processes. Here, this commentary provides a discussion and critical analysis of the core AIMMD framework, explores its recent extensions, and offers an assessment of the method’s potential impact and limitations.

Minh, Porhouy [Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN↗

NASA NTRS1979

The annoyance of multiple noisy events

A total of 24 subjects (17 M, 7 F) was tested in an experimental study of annoyance rating of multiple noisy events (30 sets of noise bursts). The scaling technique known as functional measurement was used to determine whether annoyance integrates additively over events and if so, to measure the power law exponent which relates the levels of the events to the additive scale values. To this end, groups of three noises were presented at three levels in a factorial arrangement to check the additivity hypothesis and to estimate the scaling function. Also, a series of sets of noises of constant level but varying in set size were considered. The functional measurement of annoyance ratings of sets of three simulated flyovers showed that the integration of annoyance can be represented as an additive process in terms of scale values that are power functions of the sound power with a power-law exponent near 0.7.

Ahumada, A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1988

A study of SCATHA eclipse charging

The events of charging of the SCATHA satellite in eclipse were investigated and correlated to the spacecraft surface-averaged and angle-averaged fluxes. It is shown that the large negative vehicle potentials produced in eclipse correlated with the net current due to the high-energy plasma electrons. These potentials also depend on the ion energy, ion current, and the average ion yield. An explanation for this behavior is proposed.

Li, Wei-Wei↗