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NASA NTRS2006

Variational Assimilation of Global Microwave Rainfall Retrievals: Physical and Dynamical Impact on GEOS Analyses and Forecasts

Global microwave rainfall retrievals from a 5-satellite constellation, including TMI from TRMM, SSWI from DMSP F13, F14 and F15, and AMSR-E from EOS-AQUA, are assimilated into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS) using a 1-D variational continuous assimilation (VCA) algorithm. The physical and dynamical impact of rainfall assimilation on GEOS analyses and forecasts is examined at various temporal and spatial scales. This study demonstrates that the 1-D VCA algorithm, which was originally developed and evaluated for rainfall assimilations over tropical oceans, can effectively assimilate satellite microwave rainfall retrievals and improve GEOS analyses over both the Tropics and the extratropics where the atmospheric processes are dominated by different large-scale dynamics and moist physics, and also over the land, where rainfall estimates from passive microwave radiometers are believed to be less accurate. Results show that rainfall assimilation renders the GEOS analysis physically and dynamically more consistent with the observed precipitation at the monthly-mean and 6-hour time scales. Over regions where the model precipitation tends to misbehave in distinctly different rainy regimes, the 1-D VCA algorithm, by compensating for errors in the model s moist time-tendency in a 6-h analysis window, is able to bring the rainfall analysis closer to the observed. The radiation and cloud fields also tend to be in better agreement with independent satellite observations in the rainfall-assimilation m especially over regions where rainfall analyses indicate large improvements. Assimilation experiments with and without rainfall data for a midlatitude frontal system clearly indicates that the GEOS analysis is improved through changes in the thermodynamic and dynamic fields that respond to the rainfall assimilation. The synoptic structures of temperature, moisture, winds, divergence, and vertical motion, as well as vorticity are more realistically captured across the front. Short-term forecasts using initial conditions assimilated with rainfall data also show slight improvements. 1

Lin, Xin↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Pulsar-Based Time-Scale from the International Pulsar Timing Array

We have constructed a new time-scale, TT(IPTA16), based on observations of radio pulsars presented in the first data release from the International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA). We used two analysis techniques with independent estimates of the noise models for the pulsar observations and different algorithms for obtaining the pulsar time-scale. The two analyses agree within the estimated uncertainties and both agree with TT(BIPM17), a post-corrected time-scale produced by the Bureau International des Poids et Mesures (BIPM). We show that both methods could detect significant errors in TT(BIPM17) if they were present. We estimate the stability of the atomic clocks from which TT(BIPM17) is derived using observations of four rubidium fountain clocks at the US Naval Observatory. Comparing the power spectrum of TT(IPTA16) with that of these fountain clocks suggests that pulsar-based time-scales are unlikely to contribute to the stability of the best time-scales over the next decade, but they will remain a valuable independent check on atomic time-scales. We also find that the stability of the pulsar-based time-scale is likely to be limited by our knowledge of solar-system dynamics, and that errors in TT(BIPM17) will not be a limiting factor for the primary goal of the IPTA, which is to search for the signatures of nano-Hertz gravitational waves.

G. Hobbs↗
NASA NTRS2012

Sensitivity Analysis for Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) CO2 Retrieval

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a thermal infrared sensor able to retrieve the daily atmospheric state globally for clear as well as partially cloudy field-of-views. The AIRS spectrometer has 2378 channels sensing from 15.4 micrometers to 3.7 micrometers, of which a small subset in the 15 micrometers region has been selected, to date, for CO2 retrieval. To improve upon the current retrieval method, we extended the retrieval calculations to include a prior estimate component and developed a channel ranking system to optimize the channels and number of channels used. The channel ranking system uses a mathematical formalism to rapidly process and assess the retrieval potential of large numbers of channels. Implementing this system, we identifed a larger optimized subset of AIRS channels that can decrease retrieval errors and minimize the overall sensitivity to other iridescent contributors, such as water vapor, ozone, and atmospheric temperature. This methodology selects channels globally by accounting for the latitudinal, longitudinal, and seasonal dependencies of the subset. The new methodology increases accuracy in AIRS CO2 as well as other retrievals and enables the extension of retrieved CO2 vertical profiles to altitudes ranging from the lower troposphere to upper stratosphere. The extended retrieval method for CO2 vertical profile estimation using a maximum-likelihood estimation method. We use model data to demonstrate the beneficial impact of the extended retrieval method using the new channel ranking system on CO2 retrieval.

sensitivity analysis↗
NASA NTRS1983

Real-time flutter analysis of an active flutter-suppression system on a remotely piloted research aircraft

Flight flutter-test results of the first aeroelastic research wing (ARW-1) of NASA's drones for aerodynamic and structural testing program are presented. The flight-test operation and the implementation of the active flutter-suppression system are described as well as the software techniques used to obtain real-time damping estimates and the actual flutter testing procedure. Real-time analysis of fast-frequency aileron excitation sweeps provided reliable damping estimates. The open-loop flutter boundary was well defined at two altitudes; a maximum Mach number of 0.91 was obtained. Both open-loop and closed-loop data were of exceptionally high quality. Although the flutter-suppression system provided augmented damping at speeds below the flutter boundary, an error in the implementation of the system resulted in the system being less stable than predicted. The vehicle encountered system-on flutter shortly after crossing the open-loop flutter boundary on the third flight and was lost. The aircraft was rebuilt. Changes made in real-time test techniques are included.

Gilyard, G. B.↗
NASA NTRS1987

High dynamic GPS receiver using maximum likelihood estimation and frequency tracking

A new high dynamic global positioning system (GPS) receiver is presented and its performance characterized by analysis, simulation, and demonstration. The demonstration receiver is a breadboard model capable of tracking a single simulated satellite signal in pseudorange and range rate. Pseudorange and range rate estimates are made once every 20 ms, using a maximum likelihood estimator, and are tracked by means of a third-order fading memory filter in a feedback configuration. The receiver tracks pseudorange with rms errors of under 1 m when subjected to simulated 50 g, 40 g/s circular trajectories. The tracking threshold is approximately 28 dB-Hz, which provides 12 dB margin relative to the minimum specified signal strength, assuming 3.5 dB system noise figure and 0 dBi antenna gain.

Hurd, W. J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Systematic methods for knowledge acquisition and expert system development

Nine cooperating rule-based systems, collectively called AUTOCREW, were designed to automate functions and decisions associated with a combat aircraft's subsystem. The organization of tasks within each system is described; performance metrics were developed to evaluate the workload of each rule base, and to assess the cooperation between the rule-bases. Each AUTOCREW subsystem is composed of several expert systems that perform specific tasks. AUTOCREW's NAVIGATOR was analyzed in detail to understand the difficulties involved in designing the system and to identify tools and methodologies that ease development. The NAVIGATOR determines optimal navigation strategies from a set of available sensors. A Navigation Sensor Management (NSM) expert system was systematically designed from Kalman filter covariance data; four ground-based, a satellite-based, and two on-board INS-aiding sensors were modeled and simulated to aid an INS. The NSM Expert was developed using the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and the ID3 algorithm. Navigation strategy selection is based on an RSS position error decision metric, which is computed from the covariance data. Results show that the NSM Expert predicts position error correctly between 45 and 100 percent of the time for a specified navaid configuration and aircraft trajectory. The NSM Expert adapts to new situations, and provides reasonable estimates of hybrid performance. The systematic nature of the ANOVA/ID3 method makes it broadly applicable to expert system design when experimental or simulation data is available.

Belkin, Brenda L.↗
NASA NTRS2001

TRMM Data Assimilation at NASA

We give an overview of the research at NASA in assimilating tropical rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) retrievals derived from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments. Global analyses currently contain order-one errors in the primary fields of the hydrological cycle such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and the related cloud fields, especially in the tropics. We show that an effective strategy to assimilate tropical rainfall data is to use observations to compensate for errors in moisture tendencies produced by the assimilation model. Results show that assimilating TMI and SSM/I surface rainrates and TPW estimates improves shortrange forecasts and reduces state-dependent systematic errors in the hydrological cycle and related climate parameters such as cloud, radiation, and the large-scale circulation in the tropics. The study provides a demonstration of the potential of using rainfall and moisture observations derived from passive microwave instruments to improve the quality of 4-dimensional global datasets for climate analysis and weather forecasting applications.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Development of a Dual-Pump CARS System for Measurements in a Supersonic Combusting Free Jet

This work describes the development of a dual-pump CARS system for simultaneous measurements of temperature and absolute mole fraction of N2, O2 and H2 in a laboratory scale supersonic combusting free jet. Changes to the experimental set-up and the data analysis to improve the quality of the measurements in this turbulent, high-temperature reacting flow are described. The accuracy and precision of the instrument have been determined using data collected in a Hencken burner flame. For temperature above 800 K, errors in absolute mole fraction are within 1.5, 0.5, and 1% of the total composition for N2, O2 and H2, respectively. Estimated standard deviations based on 500 single shots are between 10 and 65 K for the temperature, between 0.5 and 1.7% of the total composition for O2, and between 1.5 and 3.4% for N2. The standard deviation of H2 is ~10% of the average measured mole fraction. Results obtained in the jet with and without combustion are illustrated, and the capabilities and limitations of the dual-pump CARS instrument discussed.

Magnotti, Gaetano↗
NASA NTRS2012

New Approaches to Quantifying Transport Model Error in Atmospheric CO2 Simulations

In recent years, much progress has been made in observing CO2 distributions from space. However, the use of these observations to infer source/sink distributions in inversion studies continues to be complicated by difficulty in quantifying atmospheric transport model errors. We will present results from several different experiments designed to quantify different aspects of transport error using the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). In the first set of experiments, an ensemble of simulations is constructed using perturbations to parameters in the model s moist physics and turbulence parameterizations that control sub-grid scale transport of trace gases. Analysis of the ensemble spread and scales of temporal and spatial variability among the simulations allows insight into how parameterized, small-scale transport processes influence simulated CO2 distributions. In the second set of experiments, atmospheric tracers representing model error are constructed using observation minus analysis statistics from NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The goal of these simulations is to understand how errors in large scale dynamics are distributed, and how they propagate in space and time, affecting trace gas distributions. These simulations will also be compared to results from NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project that quantified the impact of uncertainty in satellite constrained CO2 flux estimates on atmospheric mixing ratios to assess the major factors governing uncertainty in global and regional trace gas distributions.

Ott, L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Use of In Situ and Airborne Multiangle Data to Assess MODIS- and Landsat-based Estimates of Surface Albedo

The quantification of uncertainty of global surface albedo data and products is a critical part of producing complete, physically consistent, and decadal land property data records for studying ecosystem change. A current challenge in validating satellite retrievals of surface albedo is the ability to overcome the spatial scaling errors that can contribute on the order of 20% disagreement between satellite and field-measured values. Here, we present the results from an uncertain ty analysis of MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat albedo retrievals, based on collocated comparisons with tower and airborne multi-angular measurements collected at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program s (ARM) Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) site during the 2007 Cloud and Land Surface Interaction Campaign (CLAS33 IC 07). Using standard error propagation techniques, airborne measurements obtained by NASA s Cloud Absorption Radiometer (CAR) were used to quantify the uncertainties associated with MODIS and Landsat albedos across a broad range of mixed vegetation and structural types. Initial focus was on evaluating inter-sensor consistency through assessments of temporal stability, as well as examining the overall performance of satellite-derived albedos obtained at all diurnal solar zenith angles. In general, the accuracy of the MODIS and Landsat albedos remained under a 10% margin of error in the SW(0.3 - 5.0 m) domain. However, results reveal a high degree of variability in the RMSE (root mean square error) and bias of albedos in both the visible (0.3 - 0.7 m) and near-infrared (0.3 - 5.0 m) broadband channels; where, in some cases, retrieval uncertainties were found to be in excess of 20%. For the period of CLASIC 07, the primary factors that contributed to uncertainties in the satellite-derived albedo values include: (1) the assumption of temporal stability in the retrieval of 500 m MODIS BRDF values over extended periods of cloud-contaminated observations; and (2) the assumption of spatial 45 and structural uniformity at the Landsat (30 m) pixel scale.

Roman, Miguel O.↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Single-column Model Ensemble Approach Applied to the TWP-ICE Experiment

Single-column models (SCM) are useful test beds for investigating the parameterization schemes of numerical weather prediction and climate models. The usefulness of SCM simulations are limited, however, by the accuracy of the best estimate large-scale observations prescribed. Errors estimating the observations will result in uncertainty in modeled simulations. One method to address the modeled uncertainty is to simulate an ensemble where the ensemble members span observational uncertainty. This study first derives an ensemble of large-scale data for the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) based on an estimate of a possible source of error in the best estimate product. These data are then used to carry out simulations with 11 SCM and two cloud-resolving models (CRM). Best estimate simulations are also performed. All models show that moisture-related variables are close to observations and there are limited differences between the best estimate and ensemble mean values. The models, however, show different sensitivities to changes in the forcing particularly when weakly forced. The ensemble simulations highlight important differences in the surface evaporation term of the moisture budget between the SCM and CRM. Differences are also apparent between the models in the ensemble mean vertical structure of cloud variables, while for each model, cloud properties are relatively insensitive to forcing. The ensemble is further used to investigate cloud variables and precipitation and identifies differences between CRM and SCM particularly for relationships involving ice. This study highlights the additional analysis that can be performed using ensemble simulations and hence enables a more complete model investigation compared to using the more traditional single best estimate simulation only.

numerical weather forecasting↗
NASA NTRS1982

Pulsed multiwavelength laser ranging system

A pulsed multiwavelength laser ranging system for measuring atmospheric delay was built and tested, and its theoretical performance limits were calculated. The system uses a dye modelocked ND:YAG laser, which transmits 70 psec wide pulses simultaneously at 1064, 532, and 355 nm. The differential delay of the 1064 and 355 nm pulses is measured by a specially calibrated waveform digitizer to estimate the dry atmospheric delay. The delay time of the 532 nm pulse is used to measure the target distance. Static crossed field photomultipliers are used as detectors for all wavelengths. Theoretical analysis shows that path curvature and atmospheric turbulence are fundamental limits to the ranging accuracy of both single and multicolor systems operating over horizontal paths. For two color systems, an additional error is caused by the uncertainty in the path averaged water vapor. The standard deviation of the multicolor instrument's timing measurements is directly proportional to the laser pulse width plus photomultiplier jitter divided by the square root of the received photoelectron number. The prototype system's maximum range is km, which is limited by atmospheric and system transmission losses at 355 nm. System signal detection and false alarm calculations are also presented.

Abshire, J. B.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Solar total irradiance and sunspot area in 1981

Precise observations of the total solar irradiance in 1980 from the solar-maximum mission, showed a strong correlation with the projected total sunspot area. This correlation explained about half of the variance (r of about 0.75) in the total-irradiance data, leaving the other half for other solar phenomena and errors in the data. The analysis of the intervening three years of spin-mode data, which have reduced coverage, has begun. It is found that the correlation persists at about the same qualitative level, but with increased scatter that can be attributed to the smaller amount of data. The flatness of the distribution of areas of sunspot groups makes it possible to estimate PSI approximately from only the large groups.

Hudson, H. S.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Results from NASA's Near Real Time Ozone Data Assimilation Systems

Organizations in Europe, Australia, and the United States have recently broadened constituent assimilation activities beyond water vapor, which has been assimilated for years in the numerical weather prediction applications. Many of these activities have focused on ozone, with some efforts focused on the entire suite of reactive constituents that control the ozone distribution. This talk will draw from results from the near real-time ozone data assimilation system being run by NASA's Data Assimilation Office. This system utilizes ozone observations from both the TOMS and the SBUV instrument to generate global synoptic maps of ozone. The initial application of this product is to provide ozone fields to assist in the atmospheric corrections' that are necessary for the retrieval of information from other NASA instruments. The validation of the ozone assimilation system shows that the assimilated product agrees well with independent HALOE and ozonesonde observations. Aside from providing a global synoptic map, there is verifiable geophysical information at higher vertical resolution than either of the date types input into the system. This talk will establish the validation results and enumerate applications of the ozone data assimilation system. Results from exploratory research will be presented. The applications being considered include estimates of tropospheric ozone, provision of ozone fields for interactive retrievals, use of analysis increments from the assimilation to evaluate model performance, and development of long-term consistent three-dimensional global ozone fields. The results from the exploratory studies are promising, and help demonstrate how assumptions made in the development of the ozone assimilation impact the other applications. For instance, RMS errors in the current product are large near the tropopause, which is sensitive to the specification of vertical correlation functions, which in turns impacts the amount of ozone analyzed to be in the troposphere. How these sensitivities impact the different applications will also be discussed.

Rood, Richard B.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Real-Time Imaging of Ground Cover: Relationships with Radiation Capture, Canopy Photosynthesis, and Daily Growth Rate

Cumulative absorbed radiation is highly correlated with crop biomass and yield. In this chapter we describe the use of a digital camera and commercial imaging software for estimating daily radiation capture, canopy photosynthesis, and relative growth rate. Digital images were used to determine percentage of ground cover of lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) communities grown at five temperatures. Plants were grown in a steady-state, 10-chamber CO2 gas exchange system, which was used to measure canopy photosynthesis and daily carbon gain. Daily measurements of percentage of ground cover were highly correlated with daily measurements of both absorbed radiation (r(sup 2) = 0.99) and daily carbon gain (r(sup 2) = 0.99). Differences among temperature treatments indicated that these relationships were influenced by leaf angle, leaf area index, and chlorophyll content. An analysis of the daily images also provided good estimates of relative growth rates, which were verified by gas exchange measurements of daily carbon gain. In a separate study we found that images taken at hourly intervals were effective for monitoring real-time growth. Our data suggests that hourly images can be used for early detection of plant stress. Applications, limitations, and potential errors are discussed. We have long known that crop yield is determined by the efficiency of four component processes: (i) radiation capture, (ii) quantum yield, (iii) carbon use efficiency, and (iv) carbon partitioning efficiency (Charles-Edwards, 1982; Penning de Vries & van Laar, 1982; Thornley, 1976). More than one-half century ago, Watson (1947, 1952) showed that variation in radiation capture accounted for almost all of the variation in yield between sites in temperate regions, because the three other components are relatively constant when the crop is not severely stressed. More recently, Monteith (1977) reviewed the literature on the close correlation between radiation capture and yield. Bugbee and Monje (1992) demonstrated the close relationship between absorbed radiation and yield in an optimal environment.

Klassen, S. P.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Lightning Charge Retrievals: Dimensional Reduction, LDAR Constraints, and a First Comparison with LIS Satellite Data

A "dimensional reduction" ("DR") method is introduced for analyzing lightning field changes ((Delta)Es) whereby the number of unknowns in a discrete two-charge model is reduced from the standard eight (x, y, z, Q, x', y', z', Q') to just four (x, y, z, Q). The four unknowns (x, y, z, Q) are found by performing a numerical minimization of a chi-square function. At each step of the minimization, an overdetermined fixed matrix (OFM) method is used to immediately retrieve the best "residual source" (x', y', z', Q'), given the values of (x, y, z, Q). In this way, all eight parameters Ix. y, z, Q, x', y', z', Q') are found, yet a numerical search of only four parameters (x, y, z, Q) is required. The DR method has been used to analyze lightning-caused (Delta)Es derived from multiple ground-based electric field measurements at the NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and U.S. Air Force Eastern Range (ER). The accuracy of the DR method has been assessed by comparing retrievals with data provided by the lightning detection and ranging (LDAR) system at the KSC-ER. and from least squares error estimation theory, and the method is shown to be a useful "stand alone" charge retrieval tool. Since more than one charge distribution describes a finite set of (Delta)Es (i.e., solutions are nonunique), and since there can be appreciable differences in the physical characteristics of these solutions, not all DR solutions are physically acceptable. Hence. an alternative and more accurate method of analysis is introduced that uses LDAR data to constrain the geometry of the charge solutions. thereby removing physically unacceptable retrievals. The charge solutions derived from this method are shown to compare well with independent satellite- and ground-based observations of lightning m several Florida storms.

Koshak, W. J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Volcanic Contribution to Decadal Changes in Tropospheric Temperature

Despite continued growth in atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases, global mean surface and tropospheric temperatures have shown slower warming since 1998 than previously. Possible explanations for the slow-down include internal climate variability, external cooling influences and observational errors. Several recent modelling studies have examined the contribution of early twenty-first-century volcanic eruptions to the muted surface warming. Here we present a detailed analysis of the impact of recent volcanic forcing on tropospheric temperature, based on observations as well as climate model simulations. We identify statistically significant correlations between observations of stratospheric aerosol optical depth and satellite-based estimates of both tropospheric temperature and short-wave fluxes at the top of the atmosphere. We show that climate model simulations without the effects of early twenty-first-century volcanic eruptions overestimate the tropospheric warming observed since 1998. In two simulations with more realistic volcanic influences following the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, differences between simulated and observed tropospheric temperature trends over the period 1998 to 2012 are up to 15% smaller, with large uncertainties in the magnitude of the effect. To reduce these uncertainties, better observations of eruption-specific properties of volcanic aerosols are needed, as well as improved representation of these eruption-specific properties in climate model simulations.

Atmospheric temperature↗
NASA NTRS1992

Landsat-4 (TDRSS-user) orbit determination using batch least-squares and sequential methods

TDRSS user orbit determination is analyzed using a batch least-squares method and a sequential estimation method. It was found that in the batch least-squares method analysis, the orbit determination consistency for Landsat-4, which was heavily tracked by TDRSS during January 1991, was about 4 meters in the rms overlap comparisons and about 6 meters in the maximum position differences in overlap comparisons. The consistency was about 10 to 30 meters in the 3 sigma state error covariance function in the sequential method analysis. As a measure of consistency, the first residual of each pass was within the 3 sigma bound in the residual space.

Oza, D. H.↗