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Nuclear masses learned from a probabilistic neural network

Machine learning methods and uncertainty quantification have been gaining interest throughout the last several years in low-energy nuclear physics. In particular, Gaussian processes and Bayesian neural networks have increasingly been applied to improve mass model predictions while providing well-quantified uncertainties. In this work, we use the probabilistic Mixture Density Network (MDN) to directly predict the mass excess of the 2016 Atomic Mass Evaluation within the range of measured data, and we extrapolate the inferred models beyond available experimental data. The MDN provides not only mean values but also full posterior distributions both within the training set and extrapolated testing set. We show that the addition of physical information to the feature space increases the accuracy of the match to the training data as well as provides for more physically meaningful extrapolations beyond the the limits of experimental data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Magnetospheric electric fields deduced from drifting whistler paths.

Results of a study in which the amplitude of the E-W component E sub w of the convection electric field in the nightside magnetosphere has been inferred from the observed cross-L motions of whistler ducts within the plasmasphere, and several ducts distributed over 1 to 2 earth radii in L space and over plus or minus deg 15 around the longitude of the Eights, Antarctica, whistler station have been tracked simultaneously. The method appears capable of resolving fluctuations in E sub w with period T equal to approximately 15 min and rms amplitude as low as 0.05 mV/m. For variations with T greater than 1 hour the method has a sensitivity of the order of 0.01 mV/m. Three case studies are presented, two of which illustrate convection activity associated with relatively isolated substorms. In these two cases E sub w reversed from westward to eastward for a period following the decay of substorm bay activity. In the third case the substorm bay activity was prolonged, and E sub w remained westward and at enhanced levels until local dawn. Evidence was found that, at least in a limited longitudinal sector, perturbing substorm E sub w fields can penetrate deep within the plasmasphere. In two of the case studies comparisons of E sub w and the interplanetary magnetic-field theta component show evidence of a possible relation based on brief (less than or equal to 1 hour) southward excursions but not on long preceding southward events.

Carpenter, D. L.↗

Effects of vegetation canopy structure on remotely sensed canopy temperatures

The effects of vegetation canopy structure on thermal infrared sensor response must be understood before vegetation surface temperatures of canopies with low percent ground cover can be accurately inferred. The response of a sensor is a function of vegetation geometric structure, the vertical surface temperature distribution of the canopy components, and sensor view angle. Large deviations between the nadir sensor effective radiant temperature (ERT) and vegetation ERT for a soybean canopy were observed throughout the growing season. The nadir sensor ERT of a soybean canopy with 35 percent ground cover deviated from the vegetation ERT by as much as 11 C during the mid-day. These deviations were quantitatively explained as a function of canopy structure and soil temperature. Remote sensing techniques which determine the vegetation canopy temperature(s) from the sensor response need to be studied.

Kimes, D. S.↗

The influence of NO and ClO variations at twilight on the interpretation of solar occultation measurements

The influence of short lived photochemically produced species on solar occultation measurements of ClO and NO was examined. Time varying altitude profiles of ClO and NO were calculated with a time dependent photochemical model to simulate the distribution of these species during a solar occultation measurement. These distributions were subsequently used to calculate simulated radiances for various tangent paths from which mixing ratios were inferred with a conventional technique that assumes spherical symmetry. These results show that neglecting the variation of ClO in the retrieval process produces less than a 10 percent error between the true and inverted profile for both sunrise and sunset above 18 km. For NO, errors are less than 10 percent for tangent altitudes above about 35 km for sunrise and sunset; at lower altitudes, the error increases, approaching 100 percent at altitudes near 25 km. the results also show that average inhomogeneity factors, which measure the concentration variation along the tangent path and which can be calculated from a photochemical model, can indicate which species require more careful data analysis.

Boughner, R.↗

Preliminary assessment of soil moisture over vegetation

Modeling of surface energy fluxes was combined with in-situ measurement of surface parameters, specifically the surface sensible heat flux and the substrate soil moisture. A vegetation component was incorporated in the atmospheric/substrate model and subsequently showed that fluxes over vegetation can be very much different than those over bare soil for a given surface-air temperature difference. The temperature signatures measured by a satellite or airborne radiometer should be interpreted in conjunction with surface measurements of modeled parameters. Paradoxically, analyses of the large-scale distribution of soil moisture availability shows that there is a very high correlation between antecedent precipitation and inferred surface moisture availability, even when no specific vegetation parameterization is used in the boundary layer model. Preparatory work was begun in streamlining the present boundary layer model, developing better algorithms for relating surface temperatures to substrate moisture, preparing for participation in the French HAPEX experiment, and analyzing aircraft microwave and radiometric surface temperature data for the 1983 French Beauce experiments.

Carlson, T. N.↗

Wolf-Rayet stars

The properties and evolutionary status of WR stars are examined, reviewing the results of recent observational and theoretical investigations. Topics discussed include spectral types and line strengths, magnitudes and colors, intrinsic variability, IR and radio observations, X-ray observations, the Galactic distribution of WR stars, WR stars in other galaxies, and WR binaries. Consideration is given to the inferred masses, composition, and stellar winds of WR stars; model atmospheres; WR stars and the Galactic environment; and WR stars as a phase of stellar evolution. Diagrams, graphs, and tables of numerical data are provided.

Abbott, David C.↗

Transport into the south polar vortex in early spring

Estimates of the mean circulation and diffusive transport of ozone and other species into the Antarctic polar vortex during the spring of 1987 are made using data from the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment. Measurements of long-lived tracers of tropospheric origin remained relatively constant at the levels of the maximum rate of decline of ozone during September. At lower levels in the stratosphere some evidence exists to support intrusions of tropospheric or low latitude air. Given the distribution in latitude and height of these tracers measured from the ER-2 aircraft, it can be inferred that the Lagrangian or diabatic mean circulation was zero or downward over Antarctica during the period of the ozone decline. The observation of a decline in ozone therefore requires a photochemical sink for ozone. The magnitude of the required photochemical sink must be sufficient to offset the transport of ozone into the polar region and produce the observed decline. Quasi-isentropic mixing and downward motion are coupled and are difficult to estimate from a single tracer. The full suite of measured tracers and auxiliary information are brought together to provide an estimate of the rate at which air is cycled through the polar vortex during spring. Estimates of large scale transport of potential vorticity and ozone from previous years are generally consistent with the data from the airborne experiment in suggesting a relatively slow rate of mass flow through the polar vortex in the lower stratosphere during September.

Hartmann, D.↗

Tektites: Origin as melts produced by the impact of small projectiles onto dry targets

The formation of tektites in general and layered tektites in particular seems to require a very special kind of cratering event. Evidence for the formation of pools of melt free of unmelted clasts has not been reported for the well-studied terrestrial craters such as Manicouagan or Ries. It is suggested that large amounts of relict-free melt were produced only when a sizeable fraction of the cratered target consisted of dry, high-porosity materials such as aeolian sediments. Since dry, high-porosity target materials are always confined to the outer 100 to 200 m of the Earth, the fraction of melt produced melt is probably higher in small (radius 50 to 500 m) craters than in large (r greater than 1 km) craters. Another reason to infer that the Southeast Asian tektites were produced in a multitude of small craters is the wide distribution of layered tektites. The file spans at least 1200 km, which would require ballistic ejection at velocities greater than 2 km s(-1) if all melt was generated in a single crater. It seems impossible to devise a scenario that would lead to the deposition of primary melt as a crystal-free pool at a distance of 600 km from the crater.

Wasson, John T.↗

Variability Analysis and the Structure of Active Galactic Nuclei

This five-year Long-Term Space Astrophysics grant provided the support for several major steps in advancing our knowledge of the internal structure of active galactic nuclei. The single largest portion of this program had to do with the development and application of techniques for "reverberation mapping", the use of spectral monitoring of several different bands related by radiation reprocessing to infer the internal geometry of sources. Major steps were taken in this regard, particularly in establishing the distribution in radius of emission line material, and in relating the apparent reprocessing of continuum bands to the underlying structure of the accretion disk. Another major effort built directly upon these results. Once the case for continuum reprocessing was made by the monitoring, it next behooved us to understand the spectral output of AGN as a result of this reprocessing. As a result, our view of continuum production in AGN is now much better focussed on the key problems. A third focus of effort had to do with the nature of X-ray variability in AGN, and what it can tell us about the dynamics of extremely hot material in the immediate outskirts of the supermassive black holes that form the central engines of active galactic nuclei. In addition to these primary efforts, this grant also supported many other, smaller projects. Several of these were demonstrations of how the material spewed out of AGN in relativistic.ets generate the radiation by which we observe them. J Finally, the portion of this study that had to do with continuum production by accretion disks in AGN led naturally to several papers in which new developments were presented having to do with "advection-dominated accretion disks", those disks in which accretion appears to proceed at a substantial rate, but in which radiation processes are weak.

Krolik, Julian H.↗

Triton's Distorted Atmosphere

A stellar-occultation light curve for Triton shows asymmetry that can be understood if Triton's middle atmosphere is distorted from spherical symmetry. Although a globally oblate model can explain the data, the inferred atmospheric flattening is so large that it could be caused only by an unrealistic internal mass distribution or highly supersonic zonal winds. Cyclostrophic winds confined to a jet near Triton's northern or southern limbs (or both) could also be responsible for the details of the light curve, but such winds are required to be slightly supersonic. Hazes and clouds in the atmosphere are unlikely to have caused the asymmetry in the light curve.

Elliot, J. L.↗

Imaging the Sunyaev-Zeldovich Effect in Clusters of Galaxies

Sunyaev-Zeldovich Effect imaging capabilities have recently advanced to the point that high signal-to-noise measurements are available for numerous clusters of galaxies. We discuss the results of these S-Z observations, including determination of the pressure distribution of the hot intracluster medium and the cluster gas mass; total cluster masses can also be inferred via x-ray measurements of the gas temperature, resulting in a significant constraint on the cosmological mass density parameter. S-Z Effect measurements have been further combined with x-ray imaging data, including high resolution data recently obtained with the Chandra X-ray Observatory, to estimate cluster distances and to place independent constraints on the expansion rate of the universe. We also discuss future S-Z Effect survey instruments, which will provide powerful probes of cosmology by measuring the abundance of galaxy clusters at intermediate and high redshift.

Joy, Marshall K.↗

Numerical Analysis of Incipient Separation on 53 Deg Swept Diamond Wing

A systematic analysis of incipient separation and subsequent vortex formation from moderately swept blunt leading edges is presented for a 53 deg swept diamond wing. This work contributes to a collective body of knowledge generated within the NATO/STO AVT-183 Task Group titled 'Reliable Prediction of Separated Flow Onset and Progression for Air and Sea Vehicles'. The objective is to extract insights from the experimentally measured and numerically computed flow fields that might enable turbulence experts to further improve their models for predicting swept blunt leading-edge flow separation. Details of vortex formation are inferred from numerical solutions after establishing a good correlation of the global flow field and surface pressure distributions between wind tunnel measurements and computed flow solutions. From this, significant and sometimes surprising insights into the nature of incipient separation and part-span vortex formation are derived from the wealth of information available in the computational solutions.

Frink, Neal T.↗

Loss of Control Detection for Commercial Transport Aircraft Using Conditional Variational Autoencoders

This work describes a detector for the loss of control condition of a commercial transport in flight. The detector has a belief state defined by the latent variable stochastic modeling of a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) constructed with bidirectional recurrent layers. In 2000, the Boeing Company and the NASA Langley Research Center jointly developed a quantitative set of metrics for defining loss-of-control (LOC) for a commercial transport. We use the thresholds for these quantitative metrics to define a condition vector for training the CVAE. First, we demonstrate through experimentation that reconstruction probability is an accurate indicator that the vehicle has shifted to an LOC state. Second, we introduce a technique for inferring that the vehicle is approaching a flight state change by measuring a shift in the sampling distributions of the CVAE latent space. The sampling distributions for flight observations that are approaching envelope limits are localized to external areas of the latent space. We provide an analysis of its applicability to flight data from NASA’s dynamically-scaled generic transport model (GTM) aircraft.

Loss of control↗

Architectures of Exoplanetary Systems: Towards a Multi-planet Model for Reproducing the Planet Radius Valley and Intra-system Size Similarity

Multi-planet systems provide crucial insights into the architectures and correlations within planetary systems, which in turn offer clues into their formation and evolution histories. Through the thousands of exoplanet candidates that it discovered, NASA's Kepler mission revealed that systems with multiple transiting planets are common. We describe a new model for inferring the exoplanet population observed by Kepler, which combines a semi-parametric description of planetary systems with a prescription for envelope mass-loss due to photoevaporation. This new model is a"hybrid" of the maximum AMD (angular momentum deficit) model in which the orbital excitations of the planets are drawn by distributing the system's critical AMD (He et al. 2020), and a photoevaporation model for sculpting the observed radius valley (Neil & Rogers 2020). This is an update to the SysSim suite of exoplanet population models derived from forward modeling the Kepler detection pipeline. The hybrid model is constrained by the observed statistics of multi-transiting systems, including additional constraints from the distribution of planet radii and their intra-system size patterns. This model is capable of producing a planet radius valley as well as a preference for planet size similarity. However, we find that the Kepler catalog exhibits features that are even more significant (i.e., it has a deeper observed radius valley and stronger size similarity) than the best-fit model. We use this model to infer the intrinsic planet radius valley as well as the distribution of primordial planet masses and core masses.

kepler↗

Bayesian inference in band excitation scanning probe microscopy for optimal dynamic model selection in imaging

The universal tendency in scanning probe microscopy (SPM) over the last two decades is to transition from simple 2D imaging to complex detection and spectroscopic imaging modes. The emergence of complex SPM engines brings forth the challenge of reliable data interpretation, i.e., conversion from detected signals to descriptors specific to tip–surface interactions and subsequently to material’s properties. In this work, we implemented a Bayesian inference approach for the analysis of the image formation mechanisms in band excitation SPM. Compared to the point estimates in classical functional fit approaches, Bayesian inference allows for the incorporation of extant knowledge of materials and probe behavior in the form of corresponding prior distribution and return the information on the material functionality in the form of readily interpretable posterior distributions. We explore the nonlinear mechanical behaviors spatially in a classical ferroelectric material, PbTiO 3 . We observe the non-trivial evolution of the Duffing stiffness term and the nonlinearity of the sample surface, determine spatial clustering of the nonlinear response, and perform a Landau analysis on predicting the nonlinear coefficient, which indicates that ferroelectric behavior can be a cause of the observed results. These observations suggest that the spectrum of anomalous behaviors at the ferroelectric domain walls may be broader than previously believed and can extend to non-conventional mechanical properties in addition to static and microwave conductance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Interpreting the solar wind ionization state

The ionization state of the solar coronal expansion is frozen within a few solar radii of the solar photosphere, and spacecraft measurements of the solar wind heavy ion charge state can therefore yield information about coronal conditions (e.g., electron temperature). Previous interpretations of the frozen-in ionization state have always assumed that in the coronal freezing-in region, (1) all heavy ions flow at the same bulk speed as protons, (2) the electron velocity distribution function is Maxwellian, and (3) conditions vary in space but not in time. The consequences of relaxing these assumptions for the interpretation of solar wind charge state measurements are examined. It is found that: (1) the temperature inferred by traditional interpretation of the interplanetary ionization state overestimates (underestimate) the actual coronal electron temperature if higher ion charge stages flow systematically faster (slower) than lower stages at the coronal freezing radius; (2) temperatures inferred from relative abundance measurements of ion-charge-stages with high ionization potentials moderately overestimate the actual coronal electron temperature if the high-energy tail of the coronal electron velocity distribution is enhanced relative to a Maxwellian distribution; (3) the propagation of a disturbance, e.g., a shock wave, through the corona can strongly affect the frozen-in charge state, but only over a time (a few times ten minutes) corresponding to the coronal transit time for the disturbance.

Owocki, S. P.↗

Deep Moonquakes: Remaining Problems

We have recently reexamined more than 9000 United States previously unidentified seismic events catalogued during the Apollo landing missions and positively identified for the first time about 30 deep moonquake nests on the far side of the Moon. Although only a few of them are currently locatable, the relative arrival times among stations for the rest and presence or absence of seismic signals at particular stations suggest that either (a) the region within about $40\deg$ of the antipode is aseismic or (b) the deep interior of the Moon severely attenuates or deflects seismic waves. Aside from the obvious question of how to distinguish between such hypothetical models, this effort raised several more general questions concerning the use of deep moonquake signals to infer the structure and dynamics of the deep interior of the Moon. Among more important ones are: (1) How reliable are the seismic arrival picks from which to compute the seismic velocity variations in the Moon? (2) How do the possible lateral variations in seismic velocity affect the computed radial variation in seismic velocity at depth? (3) Can we tell more about the distribution and mechanism of deep moonquakes from the newly expanded database of identified deep moonquakes? Questions (1) and (2) are especially important because the inferred deep internal structure of the Moon depends critically on their answers. Answering these questions may demand additional data collected on future lunar missions, but some may be resolved with further examination of the existing data.

Nakamura, Y.↗

Comet Mineralogy as Inferred from Infrared Spectra of Comets

For most comets, infrared (IR) spectroscopy (remote sensing) is the method through which we diagnose the mineralogy and size distribution of dust in their comae. The shape and contrast of the IR spectral features depend on the particle size: optically active minerals (absorbing of visible and near-IR solar photons) and submicron solid grains or highly porous (> 90% vacuum) grains primarily contribute to the shapes of the observed resonances. Comet mineralogies typically are determined by fitting thermal emission models of ensembles of discrete mineral grains to observed IR spectral energy distributions. The absorptivities (Q-abs) and scattering efficiencies (Q-scat) of the discrete mineral grains are computed using Mie scattering, Maxwell-Garnet mixing, Discrete Dipole Approximation, and Multi-Layered Sphere codes. These techniques when applied to crystalline minerals, specifically olivine (Mg_x, Fe_1-x)2 Si04, x>0.9, require the use of ellipsoidal shaped particles with elongated axial ratios or hollow spheres to produce the shapes of the resonances observed both from comet comae and laboratory samples. The wavelength positions of the distinct resonances from submicron-radii crystalline silicates, as well as their thermal equilibrium temperatures, constrain the crystalline olivine to have a relatively high Mg-content (x>0.9, or Fo>90). Only resonances computed for submicron Mg-rich crystalline olivine and crystalline orthopyroxene match the observed IR spectral features. However, this has led to the interpretation that micron-radii and larger crystals are absent from comet comae. Furthermore, the mass fraction of silicate crystals is dependent upon whether just the submicron portion of the size distribution is being compared or the submicron crystals compare to the aggregates of porous amorphous silicates that are computationally tractable as porous spheres. We will discuss the Deep Impact results as examples of these challenges to interpreting mid-IR spectra of short-period comets.

Wooden, Diane H.↗