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Advances in Landslide Nowcasting: Evaluation of a Global and Regional Modeling Approach

The increasing availability of remotely sensed data offers a new opportunity to address landslide hazard assessment at larger spatial scales. A prototype global satellite-based landslide hazard algorithm has been developed to identify areas that may experience landslide activity. This system combines a calculation of static landslide susceptibility with satellite-derived rainfall estimates and uses a threshold approach to generate a set of nowcasts that classify potentially hazardous areas. A recent evaluation of this algorithm framework found that while this tool represents an important first step in larger-scale near real-time landslide hazard assessment efforts, it requires several modifications before it can be fully realized as an operational tool. This study draws upon a prior work s recommendations to develop a new approach for considering landslide susceptibility and hazard at the regional scale. This case study calculates a regional susceptibility map using remotely sensed and in situ information and a database of landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in 1998 over four countries in Central America. The susceptibility map is evaluated with a regional rainfall intensity duration triggering threshold and results are compared with the global algorithm framework for the same event. Evaluation of this regional system suggests that this empirically based approach provides one plausible way to approach some of the data and resolution issues identified in the global assessment. The presented methodology is straightforward to implement, improves upon the global approach, and allows for results to be transferable between regions. The results also highlight several remaining challenges, including the empirical nature of the algorithm framework and adequate information for algorithm validation. Conclusions suggest that integrating additional triggering factors such as soil moisture may help to improve algorithm performance accuracy. The regional algorithm scenario represents an important step forward in advancing regional and global-scale landslide hazard assessment.

Kirschbaum, Dalia Bach↗

How Community Agreements Can Improve Workplace Culture in Physics

Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion (EDI) committees and Codes of Conduct (CoC) have become common in laboratories and physics departments across the country. However, very often these EDI committees and CoC are not equipped to provide practical consequences for violations, and therefore are mostly performative in nature. A considerable effort has been devoted by various groups within APS units and beyond the APS in developing instead what are now called Community Guidelines. Community Guidelines help implement the core principles in CoC, by setting expectations for participation in in-person events and virtual communication. When further accompanied by accountability and enforcement processes, they develop into Community Agreements. This White Paper discusses the elements necessary to create and implement an effective Community Agreement, reviews examples of Community Agreements in physics, and argues that physics collaborations, physics departments, and ultimately as many physics organizations as possible, however large or small, should have a Community Agreement in place. We advocate that Community Agreements should become part of the bylaws of any entity that has bylaws.

Barzi, Emanuela↗

A NEA review on innovative structural materials solutions, including advanced manufacturing processes for nuclear applications based on technology readiness assessment

The Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Expert Group on Innovative Structural Materials (EGISM) was established in 2008 under the guidance of the Nuclear Science Committee (NSC). Its objectives are to conduct joint and comparative studies to support the development, selection and characterisation of innovative structural materials that can be implemented in advanced nuclear fuel cycles, under long service lifetime and extreme conditions, such as high temperature, high dose/dose rate and corrosive chemical environments. In this context of growing interest and initiatives, the EGISM initiated at the beginning of 2018 an activity among its members to: Identify, in a non-exhaustive way, the currently existing programs on innovative materials and fabrication processes in NEA member countries and China; Establish a first cartography of the activities that are underway on these topics and identify common subjects and thematic; Propose a Technology Readiness Level scale to estimate the maturity of both innovative materials and fabrication processes; Carry out a reflection on what the enablers are to quickly climb this TRL scale, as well as the obstacles, in order to identify solutions to overcome them. This paper first gives definitions shared between the EGISM members on what are considered as advanced structural materials solutions. Next, some international initiatives for the accelerated development of high performance materials are presented both in non-nuclear and nuclear fields. Then, the methodology adopted for technology readiness assessment is explained. A non-exhaustive synthesis of the projects identified among the EGISM members on innovative structural materials and advanced manufacturing solutions such as additive manufacturing is presented. The TRL level of these projects is evaluated. A focus is also made on some of these projects to illustrate and explain the TRLs chosen as well as highlighting enablers or obstacles identified to climbing up the TRL scale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Round Robin Measurements of Molten Salt Properties for LiF-NaF-KF (FLiNaK) and NaCl-KCl Mixtures

The development, operation, and regulation of nuclear reactors that utilize molten salts as fuel or as heat transfer media require knowledge of the thermal properties of the salt systems and quantification of the corresponding uncertainties. Knowledge of molten salt properties is also necessary for applications in material synthesis, processing, separations, solar thermal power generation, and energy storage. A round robin was conducted with national laboratory and university participants from twenty-one laboratories in five countries to compare property measurements, to better understand uncertainties, and to identify possible best practices. Two salt mixtures, each from a common batch, were distributed to participants for evaluation: equimolar NaCl-KCl and 45.0LiF-13.7NaF-41.3KF mol % (FLiNaK). Measurements were performed to determine the major constituent composition, oxygen content, density, thermal expansivity, melting point, and thermal conductivity. Error analysis was performed on each measurement for uncertainty quantification for each type of property that was explored. Finally, the resulting discussion of the methodologies used in this work is meant to lay the groundwork for the development of standard methods and reference materials for future high-temperature property measurements on halide melts.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Classified library celebrates two-year anniversary print your own commemorative history posters

Today is the National Security Research Center’s second anniversary. These two years, though, have been eight decades in the making, said NSRC Director Riz Ali. “We opened our doors in 2019, but the Center’s beginnings date back to World War II when J. Robert Oppenheimer created the Lab in Los Alamos to develop the first-ever nuclear weapons,” Ali said. “An important part of opening the Lab included standing up a technical reports library. Since then, we have amassed millions of holdings and today we are one of the top research institutions in the country.” What had long-been a repository of classified archival materials is today a dynamic, vibrant library that outsizes the collections of other similar research libraries around the country. Today, the NSRC houses the Laboratory’s classified nuclear weapons research, data and reports, as well as unclassified historical artifacts – the stories, photos, films and more from the people who have been a part of the Lab from the start.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Conflicts of Greens’ in Renewable Energy Landscapes: Case Studies and a Planning Framework

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) through renewable energy deployment is a goal for many cities and nations to mitigate the effects of a rapidly changing climate while securing energy needs. Given national and state level policies on green energy to achieve GHG reduction targets, localities are considering utility-scale renewable energy (USRE) facilities on remote lands, rural areas, oceans, coastal waters and large rivers to meet the energy needs for urban residents and industries. Although these USRE facilities generate much “greener” electricity than fossil fuel power plants, locating them can pose conflicts with wildlife, including endangered, threatened and/or special status species, and the habitats that support wildlife populations (Brunette et al., 2013; Gasparatos et al. 2016; Mulvaney 2017), which lead to a “Conflict of Greens” (Ko et al., 2011). In addition to ecological impacts, conflicts over social and cultural resources in local communities lead to concerns over environmental justice, in this context “energy justice,” where negative environmental, social, and economic impacts of energy projects fall more heavily upon marginalized, vulnerable, or indigenous communities. The Pacific Rim region is a center of major and growing economies, and it has become a battlefield for competing “green” objectives. In addition to progressive renewable energy goals, such as in California, Hawaii, and Taiwan, countries around the Pacific Rim have the majority of the growth in manufacturing of wind and solar energy devices and also some of the highest levels of renewables deployment with China, India, and the US leading the way in wind and solar installations. Developing renewable energy source in the ocean such as offshore wind, tidal, and wave energy, are beginning to add to this mix. Given this challenge, the APRU SCL energy working group provides six case studies that address questions about the “Conflict of Greens” across the Pacific Rim including South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States (California, Hawaii, and Massachusetts). The literature review highlights the emerging ecological, social, and economic aspects of conflicts over siting renewables on the landscape. Using case studies, we examine the trial and errors in least-conflict spatial planning, data collection and analysis, public participation in decision-making, mitigation, social planning for energy transitions, and multi-scalar approaches. Lastly, we recommend interdisciplinary policy, planning, and design actions for sustainable energy landscapes across the Pacific Rim and beyond.

green versus green, renewable energy↗

Stratification and sample selection for multicrop experiments

The author has identified the following significant results. A stratification was performed and sample segments were selected for an initial investigation of multicrop problems in order to support development and evaluation of procedures for using LACIE and other technologies for the classification of corn and soybeans, to identify factors likely to affect classification performance, and to evaluate problems encountered and techniques which are applicable to the crop estimation problem in foreign countries. Two types of samples, low density and high density, supporting these requirements were selected as research data set for an initial evaluation of technical issues. Looking at the geographic location of the strata, the system appears to be logical and the various segments seem to represent different conditions. This result is supportive not only of the variables and the methodology employed in the stratification, but also of the validity of the data sets employed.

Landgrebe, D. A.↗

Remote Sensing for Food Security Monitoring in Afghanistan

Two decades of war have severely weakened Afghanistan s economy and infrastructure. Along with larger impacts on civil stability, education and health care, the current conflict in Afghanistan has resulted in widespread hunger and destitution. The 2005 National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment conducted by the United Nations found that 6.6 million Afghans do not meet their minimum food requirements and approximately 400,000 people each year are seriously affected by natural disasters, such as droughts, floods and extreme weather conditions. Given the poor security situation in the country, systems that will enable remote observations of variations of climate and their impacts on food production are critical for providing an appropriate and timely response. This chapter describes the remote sensing systems and food security analyses that the US Agency for International Development s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) conducts in Afghanistan to monitor and provide information to international donors to ensure that adequate assistance is provided during this time of development and recovery.

Brown, Molly E.↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-35202-DND

On March 20th, 2019, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Sistema de la Integración Centroamericana (SICA, Central American Integration System) issued a joint statement sharing their mutual desire to make Earth observations and remote sensing data and products more readily available to SICA member countries to inform their decision making. Regional capacity building in the use of Earth observations was one of the many opportunities for collaboration highlighted in this joint statement. As an initial capacity building effort, NASA deployed a series of feasibility projects through the DEVELOP Program to engage emerging and transitioning professionals with SICA member state partner agencies. The initial projects in summer 2019 addressed landslides in the Dominican Republic, near-coastal flooding in Guatemala and El Salvador, and environmental challenges to the Mesoamerican Reef off the coast of Belize. Additional projects were planned for fall 2019 with the objective of impacting environmental challenges for the remaining SICA member states. This presentation will summarize the results of projects conducted to date, address the lessons learned in the process of rapid engagement with regional entities, and consider how the partnership may evolve over time.

Kenton Ross↗

NASA Aeronautics Sustainable Aviation Overview

We live in challenging but exciting times for aviation as the sector continues to emerge from the unprecedented impact of a global pandemic while addressing its contribution to global warming. This perfect storm provides opportunity and the drivers that can lead to the most substantial changes the aviation sector has seen since the convergence of jet engines and swept wings over 60 years ago. The reality is we are entering the dawn of a new era of sustainable aviation full of opportunities and challenges that must economically address the health and transportation needs of society with unprecedentedly low impact on local, regional, and global environments. Today, commercial aviation physically connects countries across the globe and is an integral, critical part of today’s expanding global economy. Commercial aviation relies almost entirely on subsonic transport aircraft to constantly move people and goods from one place to another across the globe. While an effective means of transportation providing an unmatched combination of payload, speed, and range, future subsonic aircraft must continue to improve to meet efficiency, environmental, and economic goals established around the world to sustain the substantial growth projected in this well-established market. Commercial supersonic transports have come and gone in the global market, but they are on the verge of reemerging. Vertical lift vehicles leveraging breakthroughs in autonomous systems and electrified propulsion are positioned for massive growth in local and regional markets leading to daily flights within metropolitan areas that may exceed that across countries. To succeed, these new aircraft must be sustainable from day 1. NASA Aeronautics has a long history of contributions to aviation, and today it continues to address the challenge of sustainable growth of the traditional air transportation system through the research and development of systems and technologies for future aircraft and airspace operations. Research programs over the last decade have set the stage to demonstrate key technologies offering step-change performance and environmental impact. Through a Sustainable Flight National Partnership, NASA will partner with industry, academia, and other government agencies to demonstrate the most promising technologies during the 2020s to enable revolutionary systems in the early 2030s. In parallel, NASA will explore systems and technologies for further benefits approaching zero environmental impact beyond the 2030s. Similarly, NASA programs are addressing the challenges of emerging markets enabled by vertical take-off/landing and low-boom supersonic cruise. This oral-only presentation will focus on opportunities and challenges in the traditional subsonic transport while touching on emerging vertical lift and supersonic commercial aviation markets. NASA’s recent contributions, ongoing research, and plans for sustainable aviation will be discussed, including airframe, propulsion, and integrated vehicle systems and technologies.

James A. Kenyon↗

Problems of Nuclear Technology and Radiation Safety

This work discusses ethical issues arising in the course of the development of nuclear technologies and related issues of radiation safety. Attention is paid to ethical dilemmas and proposed solutions. The author suggests a critical analysis of the relevant discussions, conducted, first of all, in the English-language literature, and muses on the specifics associated with their transfer to the Russian context. This study considers ethical problems arising in context of the depletion of uranium resources and nuclear waste management and including the inevitable risks for the present and future generations, such as inter- and intragenerational justice (Gardiner's problem) and the problem of the identity of future generations (Parfit’s problem); problems of collectivity and individuality in the assessment of permissible radiation doses for workers at nuclear enterprises and the population associated with the need to combine deontological and utilitarian approaches in the practice of radiation protection. The author demonstrates cultural differences in attitudes towards the safety of the current and future generations of the population of countries and regions and the associated ambiguities in the choice of technology for nuclear reactors, long-term disposal or processing of nuclear waste; double standards in ensuring the radiation safety of personnel of nuclear facilities and the population; ethical problems of risk compensation to workers of radiation-hazardous production facilities; issues of gender differences in sensitivity to radiation exposure, gender equality and discrimination in relation to access to the labor market in the nuclear industry. The article elucidates the importance of socio-humanitarian discussion of the ethical problems of nuclear technologies and radiation safety Such debates currently are almost absent in the Russian-language philosophical literature, despite its exceptional importance due to both the level of development of nuclear energy in Russia and the potential risks that these technologies pose to current and future generations of both employees of nuclear facilities and the population of the country, neighboring countries, and the world. The purpose of this article, thus, is to initiate such a discussion.

ethics of science and technology↗

Regulations for Bat Protection in Mexico's Wind Farms

Wind energy development has expanded the fastest globally among all renewable sources during the last 20 years. However, wind farms have documented adverse impacts on bats, including mortality from collisions with turbine blades and disruptions to habitat and behavior. As the world's sixth most attractive economy for renewables, with 70 operating wind farms, Mexico and its bats now face escalating threats from the country's burgeoning wind industry. Despite this rapid growth, few studies have analyzed Mexico's regulatory framework to prevent, evaluate, and mitigate wind farm effects on bats. In this study, we reviewed Mexican laws and treaties that facilitate wind farm permitting, construction, operation, and decommissioning, and searched for guidelines that specifically address bat conservation. We found eight international pacts that promote wind power adoption along with three relevant articles in Mexico's Constitution. The General Law of Ecological Balance and Environmental Protection proved most pertinent for impact management. Supplementary guidelines from the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources offer general strategies for evaluating wind farm impacts on bats, but adherence remains voluntary. Given expanding wind power investments across Mexico, we highlight the need for more stringent national standards that require preventative and corrective measures to protect bat populations. Tighter legislation and enforcement offer pathways toward environmentally sustainable wind energy development in Mexico.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Plug-in electric vehicles in China and the USA: a technology and market comparison

As the top two plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) markets in the world, China and the United States of America (USA) have developed different market structures that are influenced by government policies, test procedures, customer acceptance, and vehicle performance. There are differences in PEV test procedures and vehicle class definitions as well. This paper quantifies such differences and compares PEV characteristics and markets in the two countries using actual data collected over several years. First, although China surpasses the USA in annual PEV production because of generous PEV policies and higher charging infrastructure availability, the USA has a higher PEV adoption rate per capita (2.3 versus 0.81 per 1000 people at the end of 2017). Second, the most popular vehicle classes are A00 battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in China but long-range mid-size BEVs in the USA. Moreover, China's electric and plug-in hybrid sport utility vehicle market is growing quickly. Third, the electricity consumption rated under Chinese test procedures is 20%-40% lower than that rated under US procedures. The sales-weighted electricity consumption of an average BEV in China is 23% lower than that in the USA because of larger proportions of small and micro BEVs in China. Fourth, PEV battery cost in the two countries is currently close to $210-$220 kWh. Finally, China has higher numbers of charging infrastructure, and the ratio of PEVs to public chargers is 9.0 in China versus 17.9 in the USA at the end of 2018.

China EV market↗

Critical minerals lists for low-carbon transitions: Reviewing their structure, objectives, and limitations

Critical minerals lists have flourished in the past decade, in particular linked to the importance of critical minerals for low-carbon transitions. We identified 27 critical minerals or materials lists across 15 countries and the European Union (EU). These lists are designed to attract public and private attention and investments to secure both domestic and foreign supplies. This review article fills a gap in the existing literature by analyzing the ways in which these lists are defined and utilized by countries engaged in a mineral rush. We focus our attention on three categories of minerals – battery minerals, platinum-group metals (PGMs), and rare earth elements (REEs) that are particularly important to energy transitions. We situate this research in the broader legal and administrative developments that have driven critical minerals policies in the past decade. We provide an in-depth analysis of the commonalities and variations in the raw materials included in these lists, and identify six core limitations of critical minerals lists: (1) unclear links between criticality assessments and mineral prioritization (2) failure to account for the full mineral value-chain; (3) limited strategic alignment between allied nations; (4) limited flexibility in dynamic environments (5) limited consideration for recycling and by-product sourcing; and (6) reliance on incomplete reserve and resource data.

Battery minerals↗

Impact of Siting Ordinances on Land Availability for Wind and Solar Development

In the United States, many siting regulations for wind and solar developments are created at the county or township level. Here we survey local zoning ordinances across the contiguous United States to understand the types and frequency of ordinances that might impact wind and solar development. We identify over 1,800 ordinances for wind and more than 800 ordinances for solar in 2022. To understand the impact of ordinances on anticipated land availability, we use spatial modelling on the setbacks specified in the ordinances. Extrapolating the setbacks throughout the country can reduce wind and solar resources by up to 87% and 38%, respectively, depending on the size of the setbacks applied. These results indicate the importance of capturing setback ordinances in resources assessments so as to not overstate resource potential, especially when considering highly decarbonized futures.

county↗

Impact of Siting Ordinances on Land Availability for Wind and Solar Development

In the United States, many siting regulations for wind and solar developments are created at the county or township level. Here we survey local zoning ordinances across the contiguous United States to understand the types and frequency of ordinances that might impact wind and solar development. We identify over 1,800 ordinances for wind and more than 800 ordinances for solar in 2022. To understand the impact of ordinances on anticipated land availability, we use spatial modelling on the setbacks specified in the ordinances. Extrapolating the setbacks throughout the country can reduce wind and solar resources by up to 87% and 38%, respectively, depending on the size of the setbacks applied. These results indicate the importance of capturing setback ordinances in resources assessments so as to not overstate resource potential.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Remote sensing techniques for conservation and management of natural vegetation ecosystems

The importance of using remote sensing techniques, in the visible and near-infrared ranges, for mapping, inventory, conservation and management of natural ecosystems is discussed. Some examples realized in Brazil or other countries are given to evaluate the products from orbital platform (MSS and RBV imagery of LANDSAT) and aerial level (photography) for ecosystems study. The maximum quantitative and qualitative information which can be obtained from each sensor, at different level, are discussed. Based on the developed experiments it is concluded that the remote sensing technique is a useful tool in mapping vegetation units, estimating biomass, forecasting and evaluation of fire damage, disease detection, deforestation mapping and change detection in land-use. In addition, remote sensing techniques can be used in controling implantation and planning natural/artificial regeneration.

Parada, N. D. J.↗

Computational mechanics needs study

In order to assess the needs in computational mechanics over the next decade, we formulated a questionnaire and contacted computational mechanics researchers and users in industry, government, and academia. As expected, we found a wide variety of computational mechanics usage and research. This report outlines the activity discussed with those contacts, as well as that in our own organizations. It should be noted that most of the contacts were made before the recent decline of the defense industry. Therefore, areas which are strongly defense-oriented may decrease in relative importance. In order to facilitate updating of this study, names of a few key researchers in each area are included as starting points for future literature surveys. These lists of names are not intended to represent those persons doing the best research in that area, nor are they intended to be comprehensive. They are, as previously stated, offered as starting points for future literature searches. Overall, there is currently a broad activity in computational mechanics in this country, with the breadth and depth increasing as more sophisticated software and faster computers become more available. The needs and desires of the workers in this field are as diverse as their background and organizational products. There seems to be some degree of software development in any organization (although the level of activity is highly variable from one organization to another) which has any research component in its mission. It seems, however, that there is considerable use of commercial software in almost all organizations. In most industrial research organizations, it appears that very little actual software development is contracted out, but that most is done in-house, using a mixture of funding sources. Government agencies vary widely in the ratio of in-house to out-house ratio. There is a considerable amount of experimental verification in most, but not all, organizations. Generally, the amount of experimental verification is more than we expected. Of all the survey contacts, one or two believe that the resources they are allocated are sufficient, but most do not. Some believe they have only half the resources they need. Some see their resource deficits as short-term, while others see it as a trend which will continue or perhaps worsen. The pessimism is stronger in the defense and aerospace industry. When considering only the nonlinear development efforts, there appears to be an even mix of geometric and material nonlinearity. There is not much particular emphasis in linear analysis unless it is in extension of current analysis capabilities to larger problems. The primary exception is concern about modeling of composites, where proven methodologies have trailed element and computer hardware development. Most of the people we spoke to use finite element techniques, but there is some finite difference and boundary element work ongoing. There is also some interest in multiple methods. Coupling of finite elements and boundary elements appears to be of high interest, since the two analysis types are complementary.

Griffin, O. Hayden, Jr.↗