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DOE OSTI2026

The quantum evolutions of the diffractive transverse-momentum dependent gluon distribution

Using the Colour Glass Condensate description of electron-nucleus collisions at high energy, we study the diffractive production of a pair of jets with transverse momenta much larger than the nuclear saturation momentum Q s . At leading order in the QCD coupling, the di-jet cross-section exhibits transverse-momentum dependent (TMD) factorisation, with a gluon diffractive TMD distribution (DTMD) which is controlled by gluon saturation and describes the transverse-momentum imbalance between the produced jets. The next-to-leading corrections generate the various quantum evolutions of the diffractive gluon distribution. We focus on the Collins-Soper-Sterman (CSS) evolution which describes the change in the gluon DTMD when increasing the “hard scale” (the typical transverse momentum of the di-jets). We consider two different representations for this equation, one in transverse-momentum space, the other one in transverse-coordinate space. They are not fully equivalent with each other (despite being related by a Fourier transform) because of the respective boundary conditions. These conditions encode the essential physics of gluon saturation together with the effects of two other types of quantum evolution: the BK/JIMWLK evolution over the rapidity gap (“inside the Pomeron”) and the DGLAP evolution outside the rapidity gap (“within the diffractive system”). We demonstrate that, due to gluon saturation, one can compute both the boundary conditions and the CSS solutions mostly from first principles, without the need for a non-perturbative Sudakov. We numerically find a good agreement between the CSS solutions in the two aforementioned representations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inclusive-photon production and its dependence on photon isolation in $pp$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV using 139 fb -1 of ATLAS data

Measurements of differential cross sections are presented for inclusive isolated-photon production in $pp$ collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV provided by the LHC and using 139 -1 fb of data recorded by the ATLAS experiment. The cross sections are measured as functions of the photon transverse energy in different regions of photon pseudorapidity. The photons are required to be isolated by means of a fixed-cone method with two different cone radii. The dependence of the inclusive-photon production on the photon isolation is investigated by measuring the fiducial cross sections as functions of the isolation-cone radius and the ratios of the differential cross sections with different radii in different regions of photon pseudorapidity. The results presented in this paper constitute an improvement with respect to those published by ATLAS earlier: the measurements are provided for different isolation radii and with a more granular segmentation in photon pseudorapidity that can be exploited in improving the determination of the proton parton distribution functions. These improvements provide a more in-depth test of the theoretical predictions. Next-to-leading-order QCD predictions from JETPHOX and SHERPA and next-to-next-to-leading-order QCD predictions from NNLOJET are compared to the measurements, using several parameterisations of the proton parton distribution functions. The measured cross sections are well described by the fixed-order QCD predictions within the experimental and theoretical uncertainties in most of the investigated phase-space region.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Transverse momentum dependent PDFs at N3LO

We compute the quark and gluon transverse momentum dependent parton distribution functions at next-to-next-to-next-to-leading order (N 3 LO) in perturbative QCD. Our calculation is based on an expansion of the differential Drell-Yan and gluon fusion Higgs production cross sections about their collinear limit. This method allows us to employ cutting edge multiloop techniques for the computation of cross sections to extract these universal building blocks of the collinear limit of QCD. The corresponding perturbative matching kernels for all channels are expressed in terms of simple harmonic polylogarithms up to weight five. As a byproduct, we confirm a previous computation of the soft function for transverse momentum factorization at N 3 LO. Our results are the last missing ingredient to extend the q T subtraction methods to N 3 LO and to obtain resummed q T spectra at N 3 LL' accuracy both for gluon as well as for quark initiated processes.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energy dependence of coherent photonuclear production of J/ψ mesons in ultra-peripheral Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{{\textrm{s}}_{\textrm{NN}}}$ = 5.02 TeV

The cross section for coherent photonuclear production of J/ψ is presented as a function of the electromagnetic dissociation (EMD) of Pb. The measurement is performed with the ALICE detector in ultra-peripheral Pb-Pb collisions at a centre-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of $\sqrt{{\textrm{s}}_{\textrm{NN}}}$ = 5.02 TeV. Cross sections are presented in five different J/ψ rapidity ranges within |y| < 4, with the J/ψ reconstructed via its dilepton decay channels. In some events the J/ψ is not accompanied by EMD, while other events do produce neutrons from EMD at beam rapidities either in one or the other beam direction, or in both. The cross sections in a given rapidity range and for different configurations of neutrons from EMD allow for the extraction of the energy dependence of this process in the range 17 < W γ Pb,n < 920 GeV, where W γ Pb,n is the centre-of-mass energy per nucleon of the γPb system. This range corresponds to a Bjorken-x interval spanning about three orders of magnitude: 1.1 × 10 —5 < x < 3.3 × 10 —2 . In addition to the ultra-peripheral and photonuclear cross sections, the nuclear suppression factor is obtained. These measurements point to a strong depletion of the gluon distribution in Pb nuclei over a broad, previously unexplored, energy range. These results, together with previous ALICE measurements, provide unprecedented information to probe quantum chromodynamics at high energies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Model-dependence of minimal-twist OPEs in d > 2 holographic CFTs

Following recent work on heavy-light correlators in higher-dimensional conformal field theories (CFTs) with a large central charge C T , we clarify the properties of stress tensor composite primary operators of minimal twist, [ T m ], using arguments in both CFT and gravity. We provide an efficient proof that the three-point coupling $\left\langle {\mathcal{O}}_L{\mathcal{O}}_L\left[{T}^m\right]\right\rangle$, where ${\mathcal{O}}_L$ is any light primary operator, is independent of the purely gravitational action. Next, we consider corrections to this coupling due to additional interactions in AdS effective field theory and the corresponding dual CFT. When the CFT contains a non-zero three-point coupling $\left\langle TT{\mathcal{O}}_L\right\rangle$, the three-point coupling $\left\langle {\mathcal{O}}_L{\mathcal{O}}_L\left[{T}^2\right]\right\rangle$ is modified at large C T if $\left\langle TT{\mathcal{O}}_L\right\rangle \sim \sqrt{C_T}$. This scaling is obeyed by the dilaton, by Kaluza-Klein modes of prototypical supergravity compactifications, and by scalars in stress tensor multiplets of supersymmetric CFTs. Quartic derivative interactions involving the graviton and the light probe field dual to ${\mathcal{O}}_L $ can also modify the minimal-twist couplings; these local interactions may be generated by integrating out a spin- ℓ ≥ 2 bulk field at tree level, or any spin ℓ at loop level. These results show how the minimal-twist OPE coefficients can depend on the higher-spin gap scale, even perturbatively.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dependence of inclusive jet production on the anti-k$_{T}$ distance parameter in pp collisions at $ \sqrt{\mathrm{s}} $ = 13 TeV

The dependence of inclusive jet production in proton-proton collisions with a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV on the distance parameter R of the anti-k$_{T}$ algorithm is studied using data corresponding to integrated luminosities up to 35.9 fb$^{−1}$ collected by the CMS experiment in 2016. The ratios of the inclusive cross sections as functions of transverse momentum p$_{T}$ and rapidity y, for R in the range 0.1 to 1.2 to those using R = 0.4 are presented in the region 84 < p$_{T}$< 1588 GeV and |y|< 2.0. The results are compared to calculations at leading and next-to-leading order in the strong coupling constant using different parton shower models. The variation of the ratio of cross sections with R is well described by calculations including a parton shower model, but not by a leading-order quantum chromodynamics calculation including nonperturbative effects. The agreement between the data and the theoretical predictions for the ratios of cross sections is significantly improved when next-to-leading order calculations with nonperturbative effects are used.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probing the chiral magnetic wave with charge-dependent flow measurements in Pb-Pb collisions at the LHC

The Chiral Magnetic Wave (CMW) phenomenon is essential to provide insights into the strong interaction in QCD, the properties of the quark-gluon plasma, and the topological characteristics of the early universe, offering a deeper understanding of fundamental physics in high-energy collisions. Measurements of the charge-dependent anisotropic flow coefficients are studied in Pb-Pb collisions at center-of-mass energy per nucleon-nucleon collision $\sqrt{s_{\textrm{NN}}}$ = 5.02 TeV to probe the CMW. In particular, the slope of the normalized difference in elliptic (v 2 ) and triangular (v 3 ) flow coefficients of positively and negatively charged particles as a function of their event-wise normalized number difference, is reported for inclusive and identified particles. The slope ${r}_3^{\textrm{Norm}}$ is found to be larger than zero and to have a magnitude similar to ${r}_2^{\textrm{Norm}}$, thus pointing to a large background contribution for these measurements. Furthermore, ${r}_2^{\textrm{Norm}}$ can be described by a blast wave model calculation that incorporates local charge conservation. In addition, using the event shape engineering technique yields a fraction of CMW (f CMW ) contribution to this measurement which is compatible with zero. This measurement provides the very first upper limit for f CMW , and in the 10–60% centrality interval it is found to be 26% (38%) at 95% (99.7%) confidence level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dihadron correlations in small- x DIS at NLO: transverse momentum dependent fragmentation

We compute the inclusive dihadron cross-section in Deep Inelastic Scattering at next-to-leading order (NLO) and small x in the Color Glass Condensate. We focus on the kinematic limit where the hadrons are produced at forward rapidities (in the direction of the virtual photon) and back-to-back in the transverse plane. Our calculation demonstrates that the coefficient of the Sudakov double logarithm for this process is –$\frac{αs}{2π}$ [C F + $\frac{Nc}{2}$] instead of –$\frac{αsNc}{4π}$ when back-to-back jets are measured in the final state. To preserve the universality of the Sudakov soft factor associated with the Weizsäcker-Williams transverse momentum dependent (TMD) gluon distribution, we promote the collinear fragmentation functions into TMD fragmentation functions. We then perform the resummation of the Sudakov logarithms through Collins-Soper-Sterman evolution of the TMD fragmentation functions and the Weizsäcker-Williams TMD gluon distribution. Finally, analytic expressions are obtained for the NLO coefficient functions in the $\overline{MS}$-scheme. These results pave the way towards numerically calculating dihadron correlations at small x at the future Electron-Ion Collider with full NLO accuracy.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiplicity dependence of ${\Xi }_{\text{c}}^{+}$ and ${\Xi }_{\text{c}}^{0}$ production in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

The first measurement at midrapidity (|y| < 0.5) of the production yield of the strange-charm baryons $Ξ$$^{+}_{c}$ and $Ξ$$^{0}_{c}$ as a function of transverse momentum (p T ) in different charged-particle multiplicity classes in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ALICE experiment at the LHC is reported. The $Ξ$$^{+}_{c}$ baryon is reconstructed via the $Ξ$$^{+}_{c}$ → $Ξ$ – π + π + decay channel in the range 4 < p T < 12 GeV/c, while the $Ξ$$^{0}_{c}$ baryon is reconstructed via both the $Ξ$$^{0}_{c}$ → $Ξ$ – π + and $Ξ$$^{0}_{c}$ → $Ξ$ – e + ν e decay channels in the range 2 < p T < 12 GeV/c. The baryon-to-meson ($Ξ$$^{0}_{c}$ + /D 0 ) and the baryon-to-baryon ($Ξ$$^{0}_{c}$ + /Λ$^{+}_{c}$) production yield ratios show no significant dependence on multiplicity. In addition, the observed yield ratios are not described by theoretical predictions that model charm-quark fragmentation based on measurements at e + e − and e − p colliders, indicating differences in the charm-baryon production mechanism in pp collisions. A comparison with different event generators and tunings, including different modelling of the hadronisation process, is also discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Region and cloud regime dependence of parametric sensitivity in E3SM atmosphere model

Abstract The Department of Energy (DOE)’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), including its atmosphere model (EAM), has many relatively new features. In a previous study we conducted a systematic parametric sensitivity analysis for EAM based on short, perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) simulations, mainly focusing on global mean climate features and metrics. While parameter values in global climate models are generally invariant in space and time, model response to parameters perturbation may vary by regions and climate regimes, which motivates the need to better understand the EAM model behaviors and physics at regional scale and process level. In this study, using the same set of PPE simulations and a similar sensitivity analysis framework, we identify parameters that cause largest sensitivities over different regions and compare model responses in fast atmospheric processes to the parameters across different cloud regimes for several important cloud-related fidelity metrics. We find that cloud forcing has opposite response to some parameters over mid-latitude vs. tropical land. We also analyze how the parametric sensitivity varies as stratocumulus transitions to shallow convection and to deep convection over ocean. Low cloud forcing and shortwave cloud forcing in the subtropical eastern Pacific are most sensitive to the parameters controlling the width of the probability density function (PDF) of the subgrid vertical velocity ( w’ ) ( gamma ) and the damping of the w’ skewness ( c8 ) near the coast but become more sensitive to the parameter affecting the damping of the w’ variance ( c1 ) further offshore. Detailed interpretation of the spatial dependence of parametric sensitivity is provided. We also investigate how the parametric sensitivity evolves with prediction duration. This study improves our process-level understanding of cloud physics and parameterization and provides insights for developing more advanced regime-aware parameterization schemes in global climate model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stress Dependency of Brittle Creep in Granite: Insights into Source Mechanisms and Parameters

Creep in rocks refers to the gradual deformation of rock material over time under the influence of constant stress. Characterizing these deformations is of great importance for engineering design, geotechnical assessment, mining operations, geological studies, and understanding natural hazards. While laboratory experiments and a variety of numerical approaches have offered explanations for microcrack interaction and damage accumulation under the three stages of creep (primary, secondary and tertiary) in conventional creep experiments, the micromechanisms of the fractures produced in brittle creep and its dependency on the applied stress have not been explored in detail. The present study focused on investigating the fracturing mechanisms that occur during creep-induced fracturing at different stress levels and estimation of the source parameters and energy budget components. A series of uniaxial compression creep experiments have been conducted at different stress level ratios (70%, 75%, 80% and 85%), to the unconfined compressive strength (UCS) of double-flawed Barre granite specimen. Creep measurements were complemented with the Acoustic Emission (AE) measurements. The creep-induced fractures were classified into double-couple (DC), compensated linear vector dipole (CLVD) and isotropic (ISO) components using the AE moment tensor decomposition technique. The results show that non-double-couple sources dominated during creep at all the specified stress levels; however, their proportions decreased as the stress level was increased. The source parameters estimation indicated a significant increase in the magnitude of the events and the radiated seismic energy with increasing levels of stress and a slight increase in the evaluated source radius and stress drop with increasing stress levels. Furthermore, this study contributes to the existing knowledge of creep-induced fracturing by providing insights into the fracturing mechanisms and the radiated seismic energy produced, which can be helpful for the development of improved models and strategies for rock engineering and geoscience applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interfacial toughness: dependence on surface roughness and test temperature

Interfacial toughness quantifies resistance to crack growth along an interface and in this investigation the toughness of an aluminum/epoxy interface was measured as a function of surface roughness and test temperature. The large strain response of the relatively ductile epoxy adhesive used in this study was also characterized. This epoxy adhesive exhibits intrinsic strain-softening after initial compressive yield and then deforms plastically at a roughly constant flow stress until it rapidly hardens at large compressive strains. Here, we find that interface toughness scales as the product of the temperature dependent epoxy yield strength and a length scale that characterizes surface roughness. The proposed scaling is based upon dimensional considerations of a model problem that assumes that the characteristic length scale of both the roughness and the crack-tip yield zone is small relative to the region dominated by the linear elastic asymptotic crack-tip stress field. Furthermore, the model assumes that interfacial failure occurs only after the epoxy begins to harden at large strains. The proposed relationship is validated by our interfacial toughness measurements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Temperature Dependent Early-Stage Oxidation Dynamics of Cu(100) Film with Faceted Holes

Fundamental understanding of surface oxidation dynamics is critical for rational corrosion protection and advanced manufacturing of nanostructured oxides. In situ environmental TEM (ETEM) provides high spatial (nano- to atomic- scale) and temporal (< 0.1 s) resolution to investigate the early-stage oxidation/corrosion dynamics of metals and alloys. Thin samples with facets are widely used to enable cross-sectional observation of the oxidation dynamics in ETEM. However, how different facet orientations oxidize under the same conditions, and how these facets change the oxidation process, has not been investigated before. Here, using in situ ETEM, we systematically compare the oxidation dynamics of Cu(001) thin films, with faceted holes exposing {100} and {110} facets at temperatures ranging from 250–600 °C under 0.03 Pa O 2 . Oxidation preference is observed to change, from Cu(110) facets at lower temperatures to Cu(100) facets at ~ 500 °C. Oxide growth mechanisms change from outward growth on Cu 2 O surfaces at low temperatures, to inward growth on Cu-Cu 2 O interfaces at high temperatures. At high temperatures (500–600 °C), a rod-like Cu 2 O morphology is observed, with side facets of ~ {024} and top facets of {100} on Cu(100). This differs from the square-shaped Cu 2 O exposing {110} facets formed on Cu(001) surfaces. Rod-like oxides exhibit directional growth along their lengths with linear growth rates, regardless of rod length and width. This suggests that O from Cu(001) surfaces, rather than Cu(100) facets, serves as an O source for oxide growth. These results show a direct comparison of oxidation at different orientations with temperature, underscoring the temperature dependence of oxidation preference. Our results also suggest future in situ ETEM experiments viewing oxidation corrosion cross-sectionally should be cautious when oxide size is comparable with sample thickness, as the oxidizing mechanism may change due to sample thickness.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Multi-Region SEIR Model Incorporating Inter-County Mobility and Time-Dependent Transmission Dynamics: Application to COVID-19 Disease Outbreak Data in North Carolina.

Classical infectious disease compartmental models typically do not incorporate spatial heterogeneity or mobility. We develop a multi-region susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model in which disease dynamics are coupled via inter-region mobility and the transmission rate is both region and time dependent. We calibrate the model using rolling averages of daily COVID-19 data in all 100 North Carolina counties. Mobility parameters are prescribed using daily inter-county commuter data. The number of transmission rate parameters is substantially reduced by hypothesizing that the dynamics correlate with county-level population density. Parameter estimation is carried out using several objective functions with error terms at different scales. An additive combination of least squares error at the county-level and the state-level, along with a quadratic transmission rate polynomial, yields the lowest overall error at both spatial scales. The calibrated model is used to simulate regional effects of perturbing disease transmission rates in adjacent counties and to illustrate effects of the state’s mobility infrastructure on disease dynamics and spread for a new disease outbreak.

COVID-19 modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

Temperature-Dependent Thermal and Mechanical Properties of a Wire Arc Additively Manufactured Low Transformation Temperature Steel

Recent research has studied the use of low transformation temperature (LTT) martensite steel as feedstock for wire arc additive manufacturing (WAAM) and low tensile residual stresses or compressive residual stresses were detected in the printed walls. These residual stress states help to improve printed product properties such as fatigue strength and corrosion resistance. However, the thermal and mechanical properties of WAAM printed LTT martensite steel walls are largely unknown. In this work, a printed LTT martensite steel was characterized for its thermal, metallurgical, and mechanical behavior at room and elevated temperatures. The temperature-dependent specific heat capacity, thermal expansion, atomic lattice spacing, and tensile properties were measured during both heating and cooling and related to observed microstructural features and computational thermodynamics predictions. These results revealed a large hysteresis in the martensitic transformation, with a martensite start temperature of 240 °C and austenite start temperature of 680 °C. Additional thermal cycles and specimen orientation did not affect the printed specimen austenite and martensite transformations. However, it was observed that the printed metal may exhibit tempering embrittlement at about 350 °C but further studies are needed to confirm that. Further, these results suggest that a temperature control of 250 °C to 350 °C during WAAM is needed to maximize the stress reduction potential of the LTT250 martensite steel. Opportunities for future implementation of LTT martensite steels and optimization of additive manufacturing process conditions are identified.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Time-Dependent 600 °C Post-Weld Heat Treatment Response of Laser-Wire-Directed Energy Deposited Austenitic Stainless Steel Claddings on Carbon Steel

Austenitic stainless steel overlay claddings are often used to protect nuclear reactor pressure vessels from corrosion. Arc welding processes are traditionally employed, which require a high heat input to bond the dissimilar metals, creating a large heat-affected zone and high residual stress that demands a lengthy stress-relieving post-weld heat treatment, up to 48 hours. High energy beam (e.g., laser, electron beam) directed energy deposition-based overlay cladding processes show promise for fabricating claddings with superior performance compared to arc welded ones because of their localized heat input; however, their necessity and time of post-weld heat treatment are currently unclear. In this research, we investigate the time dependence of a 600 C stress-relieving post-weld heat treatment of austenitic stainless steel clad on low carbon steel by laser-wire-directed energy deposition, comparing the microstructure and mechanical properties of the as-fabricated condition to 2-, 10-, and 48-hour heat treatment times. Diffusion simulations and microscopy show a gradual carburization of the stainless steel cladding and decarburization of the heat-affected zone/base metal. Nanoindentation testing shows up to a 1.8–2.69 embrittlement in the cladding and a 0.33 to 0.69 softening in the heat-affected zone after the 48-hour post-weld heat treatment. Tensile testing of the cladding composites reveals that increasing post-weld heat treatment time raises clad cracking susceptibility due to intergranular carbide formation and shows that laser-wire-directed energy deposition claddings may not require post-weld heat treatment.

Coating↗
DOE OSTI2023

Microstructure and Temperature Dependent Indentation Response of Additively Manufactured Precipitation-Strengthened Al 0.3 Ti 0.2 Co 0.7 CrFeNi 1.7 High Entropy Alloy

The temperature-dependent [from room temperature (RT) to 500°C] nanoindentation behavior of a precipitation-strengthened Al 0.3 Ti 0.2 Co 0.7 CrFeNi 1.7 high-entropy alloy (HEA) processed via two different additive manufacturing (AM) techniques was investigated in the as-deposited and annealed conditions. The hierarchically heterogeneous microstructures were achieved via simple one-step annealing treatments, exploiting the residual stresses in the AM-processed HEA to partially recrystallize the microstructure, performed remarkably better than the nearly homogeneous microstructures in the as-deposited state. Further, the one-step annealed conditions revealed < 6.6% reduction in hardness values at 500°C compared to RT, while the as-deposited conditions showed a > 18% reduction in the hardness. The one-step annealed conditions also exhibited significantly higher hardness than the as-deposited conditions owing to their L1 2 -strengthened FCC microstructures. Furthermore, serrated yielding or the Portevin-Le Chatlier effect indicative of microstructural instability was observed during nanoindentation deformation (at 500°C) for the as-deposited conditions but not for the one-step annealed conditions. This, therefore, signifies the robustness of the hierarchically heterogeneous microstructures at elevated temperatures presenting a strong avenue for tuning the HEAs for future nuclear reactor applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging Extremal Dependence to Better Characterize the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

Abstract In late June, 2021, a devastating heatwave affected the US Pacific Northwest and western Canada, breaking numerous all-time temperature records by large margins and directly causing hundreds of fatalities. The observed 2021 daily maximum temperature across much of the U.S. Pacific Northwest exceeded upper bound estimates obtained from single-station temperature records even after accounting for anthropogenic climate change, meaning that the event could not have been predicted under standard univariate extreme value analysis assumptions. In this work, we utilize a flexible spatial extremes model that considers all stations across the Pacific Northwest domain and accounts for the fact that many stations simultaneously experience extreme temperatures. Our analysis incorporates the effects of anthropogenic forcing and natural climate variability in order to better characterize time-varying changes in the distribution of daily temperature extremes. We show that greenhouse gas forcing, drought conditions and large-scale atmospheric modes of variability all have significant impact on summertime maximum temperatures in this region. Our model represents a significant improvement over corresponding single-station analysis, and our posterior medians of the upper bounds are able to anticipate more than 96% of the observed 2021 high station temperatures after properly accounting for extremal dependence. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.

Zhang, Likun (ORCID:0000000154584556)↗