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At least 901 records · Page 50

Free oscillations in a climate model with ice-sheet dynamics

A study of stable periodic solutions to a simple nonlinear model of the ocean-atmosphere-ice system is presented. The model has two dependent variables: ocean-atmosphere temperature and latitudinal extent of the ice cover. No explicit dependence on latitude is considered in the model. Hence all variables depend only on time and the model consists of a coupled set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The globally averaged ocean-atmosphere temperature in the model is governed by the radiation balance. The reflectivity to incoming solar radiation, i.e., the planetary albedo, includes separate contributions from sea ice and from continental ice sheets. The major physical mechanisms active in the model are (1) albedo-temperature feedback, (2) continental ice-sheet dynamics and (3) precipitation-rate variations. The model has three-equilibrium solutions, two of which are linearly unstable, while one is linearly stable. For some choices of parameters, the stability picture changes and sustained, finite-amplitude oscillations obtain around the previously stable equilibrium solution. The physical interpretation of these oscillations points to the possibility of internal mechanisms playing a role in glaciation cycles.

Kallen, E.↗

Development and Experimental Validation of a Path-Dependent Spin Forming Finite Element Model

Spin forming is an advanced manufacturing process widely used in the aerospace and defense sectors to produce lightweight, high-strength cylindrical components with tight dimensional tolerances. This study explores the applicability of the path-dependent Mechanical Threshold Stress (MTS) constitutive model by simulating the evolution of geometry, machining forces, and plastic deformation during the spin forming of a 10-mm thick 6061-O aluminum cylinder. While numerical modeling of spin forming has advanced substantially over the past decade, systematic verification and experimental validation of material models remain limited, particularly in predicting through-thickness process evolution. The MTS model, incorporating a Voce hardening rule, is employed for its ability to represent cyclic loading, rapidly varying temperature fields, and strain rates characteristic of spin forming. Numerical convergence analysis indicates discretization uncertainties between 0.3% and 9.2% for key quantities of interest. Experimental validation demonstrates that the MTS model, when implemented with a verified mesh, accurately reproduces both elastic and plastic behavior of 6061-O aluminum, predicting peak roller loads within 11–18% of measurements, geometric tolerances within 3%, and plastic strain distributions within 10% of experimental values. Collectively, these results establish a validated computational framework for predictive spin-forming simulations with quantified confidence, providing a foundation for extension to other alloys, geometries, and forming conditions.

Spin forming↗

Expected IPS variations due to a disturbance described by a 3-D MHD model

The variations of interplanetary scintillation due to a disturbance described by a three-dimensional, time-dependent, MHD model of the interplanetary medium are calculated. The resulting simulated IPS maps are compared with observations of real disturbances and it is found that there is some qualitative agreement. It is concluded that the MHD model with a more realistic choice of input conditions would probably provide a useful description of many interplanetary disturbances.

Tappin, S. J.↗

A statistical analysis of the dependency of closure assumptions in cumulus parameterization on the horizontal resolution

Simulated data from the UCLA cumulus ensemble model are used to investigate the quasi-universal validity of closure assumptions used in existing cumulus parameterizations. A closure assumption is quasi-universally valid if it is sensitive neither to convective cloud regimes nor to horizontal resolutions of large-scale/mesoscale models. The dependency of three types of closure assumptions, as classified by Arakawa and Chen, on the horizontal resolution is addressed in this study. Type I is the constraint on the coupling of the time tendencies of large-scale temperature and water vapor mixing ratio. Type II is the constraint on the coupling of cumulus heating and cumulus drying. Type III is a direct constraint on the intensity of a cumulus ensemble. The macroscopic behavior of simulated cumulus convection is first compared with the observed behavior in view of Type I and Type II closure assumptions using 'quick-look' and canonical correlation analyses. It is found that they are statistically similar to each other. The three types of closure assumptions are further examined with simulated data averaged over selected subdomain sizes ranging from 64 to 512 km. It is found that the dependency of Type I and Type II closure assumptions on the horizontal resolution is very weak and that Type III closure assumption is somewhat dependent upon the horizontal resolution. The influences of convective and mesoscale processes on the closure assumptions are also addressed by comparing the structures of canonical components with the corresponding vertical profiles in the convective and stratiform regions of cumulus ensembles analyzed directly from simulated data. The implication of these results for cumulus parameterization is discussed.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗

A model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module and its applications in ecology

Abstract. Models are an important tool to predict Earth system dynamics. An accurate prediction of future states of ecosystems depends on not only model structures but also parameterizations. Model parameters can be constrained by data assimilation. However, applications of data assimilation to ecology are restricted by highly technical requirements such as model-dependent coding. To alleviate this technical burden, we developed a model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module. MIDA works in three steps including data preparation, execution of data assimilation, and visualization. The first step prepares prior ranges of parameter values, a defined number of iterations, and directory paths to access files of observations and models. The execution step calibrates parameter values to best fit the observations and estimates the parameter posterior distributions. The final step automatically visualizes the calibration performance and posterior distributions. MIDA is model independent, and modelers can use MIDA for an accurate and efficient data assimilation in a simple and interactive way without modification of their original models. We applied MIDA to four types of ecological models: the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model, a surrogate-based energy exascale earth system model: the land component (ELM), nine phenological models and a stand-alone biome ecological strategy simulator (BiomeE). The applications indicate that MIDA can effectively solve data assimilation problems for different ecological models. Additionally, the easy implementation and model-independent feature of MIDA breaks the technical barrier of applications of data–model fusion in ecology. MIDA facilitates the assimilation of various observations into models for uncertainty reduction in ecological modeling and forecasting.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module and its applications in ecology

Models are an important tool to predict Earth system dynamics. An accurate prediction of future states of ecosystems depends on not only model structures but also parameterizations. Model parameters can be constrained by data assimilation. However, applications of data assimilation to ecology are restricted by highly technical requirements such as model-dependent coding. To alleviate this technical burden, we developed a model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module. MIDA works in three steps including data preparation, execution of data assimilation, and visualization. The first step prepares prior ranges of parameter values, a defined number of iterations, and directory paths to access files of observations and models. The execution step calibrates parameter values to best fit the observations and estimates the parameter posterior distributions. The final step automatically visualizes the calibration performance and posterior distributions. MIDA is model independent, and modelers can use MIDA for an accurate and efficient data assimilation in a simple and interactive way without modification of their original models. We applied MIDA to four types of ecological models: the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model, a surrogate-based energy exascale earth system model: the land component (ELM), nine phenological models and a stand-alone biome ecological strategy simulator (BiomeE). The applications indicate that MIDA can effectively solve data assimilation problems for different ecological models. Additionally, the easy implementation and model-independent feature of MIDA breaks the technical barrier of applications of data–model fusion in ecology. MIDA facilitates the assimilation of various observations into models for uncertainty reduction in ecological modeling and forecasting.

Earth system dynamics↗

Stratospheric NO, NO2, and N2O5 - A comparison of model results with Spacelab 3 Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) measurements

The Spacelab 3 Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy measurements in 1985 of stratospheric NO/NO2 abundance ratios were compared with abundance ratios calculated using a time-dependent photochemical model. A good agreement between calculated and observed values of the NO/NO2 abundance ratio was found through much of the stratosphere, indicating that the temperature-dependent rate constant K3 (NO + O3) used in the model is properly parameterized.

Allen, Mark↗

Use of the Terminal Area Simulation System (TASS) to study microburst wind shears

Ground-based and airborne Doppler radar and LIDAR systems are being designed to alert pilots when a hazardous windshear is present. A key element in this design effort is understanding the microburst itself. This is accomplished by means of the TASS model which was developed for NASA by Proctor (1987a,b). The time-dependent TASS model has two vesions: a two-demensional high resolution axisymmetric model, and a three-demensional model. The model includes a sophisticated parameterization of cloud microphysics and a friction layer, both of which are essential to a realistic simulation of the microburst phenomenon. The TASS model has been successfully tested on well-observed convective events.

Byrd, Gregory P.↗

Length of the lunar crescent

Observations of the crescent moon are studied to determine why the illuminated portion does not extend to a 180-deg arc. The observations are discussed in terms of optical aids, seeing effects, and cusp brightness to examine possible explanations. Hapke's (1984) model is employed to measure lunar surface brightnesses for the present observations and those of Danjon (1932, 1936). The crescent tends to get narrower and dimmer as the moon gets closer to the sun; a model is proposed in which the visible arc length varies as a function of a particular sun-moon angle. Scatter is also predicted for the model which depends on the varying observer sensitivity and other effects. The predictions of the model are found to match all the observational data effectively. An important conclusion is that the crescent moon will be invisible when the moon is within 7 degrees of the sun.

Schaefer, Bradley E.↗

On the theoretical model for vertical ozone density distributions in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere.

Calculations based on an improved, time-dependent theoretical model for the vertical ozone density distribution in the upper atmosphere are shown to clarify the cause and determine the appearance precondition for the depression at the 70-85 km altitude region in the ozone density distribution suggested by several theoretical models and only sometimes experimentally observed. It is concluded that the depression develops at night through the effects of hydrogen-oxygen and nitrogen-oxygen reactions, as well as those of eddy diffusion transports.

Shimazaki, T.↗

A model study of the effects of intermittent loss on odd nitrogen concentrations in the lower troposphere

A time-dependent box model of the lower troposphere which includes a description of photochemical and physical processes has been developed. This model has been applied to the calculation of nitric acid and NO(x)(NO + NO2) concentrations over a diurnal cycle which includes precipitation. Nitric acid concentrations and the HNO3/NO(x) ratio are found to be highly variable under the assumptions regarding the frequency, duration, and intensity of precipitation employed in this model. The chemistry of odd nitrogen compounds during the night is potentially important in establishing the level of nitric acid in the lower troposphere. These calculations also indicate that relatively large errors may occur when the continuity equation describing nitric acid variations is averaged over a diurnal cycle which includes precipitation. Interpretation of simultaneous measurements of HNO3 and NO(x) will require some knowledge of the history of the observed air mass and may require an improved understanding of nighttime odd nitrogen chemistry.

Stewart, R. W.↗

Time-series photometric spot modeling. 2: Fifteen years of photometry of the bright RS CVn binary HR 7275

We present a time-dependent spot modeling analysis of 15 consecutive years of V-band photometry of the long-period (P(sub orb) = 28.6 days) RS CVn binary HR 7275. This baseline in time is one of the longest, uninterrupted intervals a spotted star has been observed. The spot modeling analysis yields a total of 20 different spots throughout the time span of our observations. The distribution of the observed spot migration rates is consistent with solar-type differential rotation and suggests a lower limit of the differential-rotation coefficient of 0.022 +/-0.004. The observed, maximum lifetime of a single spot (or spot group) is 4.5 years, the minimum lifetime is approximately one year, but an average spot lives for 2.2 years. If we assume that the mechanical shear by differential rotation sets the upper limit to the spot lifetime, the observed maximum lifetime in turn sets an upper limit to the differential-rotation coefficient, namely 0.04 +/- 0.01. This would be differential rotation just 5 to 8 times less than the solar value and one of the strongest among active binaries. We found no conclusive evidence for the existence of a periodic phenomenon that could be attributed to a stellar magnetic cycle.

Strassmeier, K. G.↗

Modeled Seasonal Variations of Firn Density Induced by Steady State Surface Air Temperature Cycle

Seasonal variations of firn density in ice-sheet firn layers have been attributed to variations in deposition processes or other processes within the upper firn. A recent high-resolution (mm scale) density profile, measured along a 181 m core from Antarctica, showed small-scale density variations with a clear seasonal cycle that apparently was not-related to seasonal variations in deposition or known near-surface processes (Gerland and others 1999). A recent model of surface elevation changes (Zwally and Li, submitted) produced a seasonal variation in firn densification, and explained the seasonal surface elevation changes observed by satellite radar altimeters. In this study, we apply our 1-D time-dependent numerical model of firn densification that includes a temperature-dependent formulation of firn densification based on laboratory measurements of grain growth. The model is driven by a steady-state seasonal surface temperature and a constant accumulation rate appropriate for the measured Antarctic ice core. The modeled seasonal variations in firn density show that the layers of snow deposited during spring to mid-summer with the highest temperature history compress to the highest density, and the layers deposited during later summer to autumn with the lowest temperature history compress to the lowest density. The initial amplitude of the seasonal difference of about 0.13 reduces to about 0.09 in five years and asymptotically to 0.92 at depth, which is consistent with the core measurements.

Jun, Li↗

Cluster dynamics modeling of Mn-Ni-Si precipitates coupled with radiation-induced segregation in low-Cu reactor pressure vessel steels

Formation of precipitates enhanced or induced by irradiation causes hardening and embrittlement of nuclear structural materials. Post-irradiation microstructure characterization of reactor pressure vessel (RPV) steels has shown that precipitation can be strongly associated with radiation-induced segregation (RIS) of solutes on dislocations. However, RIS and precipitation have not been coupled in previous precipitation modeling of RPV steels. Here in this study, a new hybrid and spatially-dependent precipitation model is developed that couples cluster dynamics with RIS, providing an unique way to account for concurrent evolution of heterogeneous cluster densities as well as solute and point defect concentration profiles. The model is applied to study the segregation of Mn, Ni, and Si on dislocations and heterogeneous nucleation of Mn-Ni-Si rich precipitates (MNSPs) in a low-Cu RPV steel. The result shows that the onset of MNSP nucleation on dislocations occurs at the fluence of 2 x 10 23 n.m -2 . The number density and mean radius can reach ~ 10 24 m -3 and 1-2 nm at high fluence, respectively. These observations suggest that the role of RIS and heterogeneous nucleation can be significant for RPV steels under a high fluence of irradiation. Results of simulations adopting various dose rates and dislocation densities show an increased fraction of MNSPs on dislocations at the condition of low dose rate, high dislocation density, and high fluence.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Magnetohydrodynamic models of coronal transients in the meridional plane. IV - Effect of the solar wind

A two-dimensional, time-dependent magnetohydrodynamic model in the meridional plane with and without an ambient solar wind in an ambient radial magnetic field has been used to investigate mass motions associated with coronal transients. It is shown that the solar wind does not significantly affect the general dynamic characteristics of the mass motion. The ambient solar wind, however, increases the velocity of the mass motion and produces a moderate change in the thermodynamic properties of the coronal plasma.

Wu, S. T.↗

3-dimensional current collection model

A three-dimensional, time dependent current collection model of a satellite has been developed for the TSS-1 system. The system has been simulated particularly for the Research of Plasma Electrodynamics (ROPE) experiment. The Maxwellian distributed particles with the geomagnetic field effects are applied in this numerical simulation. The preliminary results indicate that a ring current is observed surrounding the satellite in the equatorial plane. This ring current is found between the plasma sheath and the satellite surface and is oscillating with a time scale of approximately 1 microsec. This is equivalent to the electron plasma frequency. An hour glass shape of electron distribution was observed when the viewing direction is perpendicular to the equatorial plane. This result is consistent with previous findings from Linson (1969) and Antoniades et al. (1990). Electrons that are absorbed by the satellite are limited from the background ionosphere as indicated by Parker and Murphy (1967).

Hwang, Kai-Shen↗

Isothermal Fatigue, Damage Accumulation, and Life Prediction of a Woven PMC

This dissertation focuses on the characterization of the fully reversed fatigue behavior exhibited by a carbon fiber/polyimide resin, woven laminate at room and elevated temperatures. Nondestructive video edge view microscopy and destructive sectioning techniques were used to study the microscopic damage mechanisms that evolved. The residual elastic stiffness was monitored and recorded throughout the fatigue life of the coupon. In addition, residual compressive strength tests were conducted on fatigue coupons with various degrees of damage as quantified by stiffness reduction. Experimental results indicated that the monotonic tensile properties were only minimally influenced by temperature, while the monotonic compressive and fully reversed fatigue properties displayed noticeable reductions due to the elevated temperature. The stiffness degradation, as a function of cycles, consisted of three stages; a short-lived high degradation period, a constant degradation rate segment composing the majority of the life, and a final stage demonstrating an increasing rate of degradation up to failure. Concerning the residual compressive strength tests at room and elevated temperatures, the elevated temperature coupons appeared much more sensitive to damage. At elevated temperatures, coupons experienced a much larger loss in compressive strength when compared to room temperature coupons with equivalent damage. The fatigue damage accumulation law proposed for the model incorporates a scalar representation for damage, but admits a multiaxial, anisotropic evolutionary law. The model predicts the current damage (as quantified by residual stiffness) and remnant life of a composite that has undergone a known load at temperature. The damage/life model is dependent on the applied multiaxial stress state as well as temperature. Comparisons between the model and data showed good predictive capabilities concerning stiffness degradation and cycles to failure.

Gyekenyesi, Andrew L.↗