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NASA NTRS1987

Radar scene generation for tactical decision aids

The Mueller matrix and polarization covariance matrix for polarimetric radar systems was studied. The clutter is modeled by a layer of random permittivity, described by a three-dimensional correlation function, with variance, and horizontal and vertical correlation lengths. A general mixing formula was derived for discrete scatters immersed in a host medium. The results are applicable to general multiphase mixtures. The strong fluctuation theory was used to derive the backscattering cross sections, and was further extended to include higher order co-polarized and cross-polarized moments. A two-layer anisotropic random medium model was developed for the active and passive remote sensing of ice fields. A three-layer random medium model was adopted to study the volume scattering effects for the active and passive microwave remote sensing of snow-covered ice fields. The snow layer was simulated by an isotropic random medium and the ice layer by an anisotropic random medium. The vegetation canopy and snow-covered ice field were studied with a three-layer model, an isotropic random medium layer overlying an anisotropic random medium. The dyadic Green's function of the three-layer medium and the scattered electromagnetic intensities with Born approximation were calculated.

Kong, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Chandra X-Ray Observatory Radiation Environmental Model Update

CRMFLX (Chandra Radiation Model of ion FLUX) is a radiation environment risk mitigation tool for use as a decision aid in planning the operation times for Chandra's Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer (ACIS) detector. The accurate prediction of the proton flux environment with energies of 100 - 200 keV is needed in order to protect the ACIS detector against proton degradation. Unfortunately, protons of this energy are abundant in the region of space where Chandra must operate. In addition, on-board particle detectors do not measure proton flux levels of the required energy range. CRMFLX is an engineering environment model developed to predict the proton flux in the solar wind, magnetosheath, and magnetosphere phenomenological regions of geospace. This paper describes the upgrades to the ion flux databases for the magnetosphere, magnetosheath, and solar wind regions. These data files were created by using Geotail and Polar spacecraft flux measurements only when the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft's 0.14 MeV particle flux was below a threshold value. This new database allows for CRMFLX output to be correlated with both the geomagnetic activity level, as represented by the Kp index, as well as with solar proton events. Also, reported in this paper are results of analysis leading to a change in Chandra operations that successfully mitigates the false trigger rate for autonomous radiation events caused by relativistic electron flux contamination of proton channels.

Blackwell, William C.↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Utility of the Real-Time NASA Land Information System Data for Drought Monitoring Applications

Measurements of soil moisture are a crucial component for the proper monitoring of drought conditions. The large spatial variability of soil moisture complicates the problem. Unfortunately, in situ soil moisture observing networks typically consist of sparse point observations, and conventional numerical model analyses of soil moisture used to diagnose drought are of coarse spatial resolution. Decision support systems such as the U.S. Drought Monitor contain drought impact resolution on sub-county scales, which may not be supported by the existing soil moisture networks or analyses. The NASA Land Information System, which is run with 3 km grid spacing over the eastern United States, has demonstrated utility for monitoring soil moisture. Some of the more useful output fields from the Land Information System are volumetric soil moisture in the 0-10 cm and 40-100 cm layers, column-integrated relative soil moisture, and the real-time green vegetation fraction derived from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) swath data that are run within the Land Information System in place of the monthly climatological vegetation fraction. While these and other variables have primarily been used in local weather models and other operational forecasting applications at National Weather Service offices, the use of the Land Information System for drought monitoring has demonstrated utility for feedback to the Drought Monitor. Output from the Land Information System is currently being used at NWS Huntsville to assess soil moisture, and to provide input to the Drought Monitor. Since feedback to the Drought Monitor takes place on a weekly basis, weekly difference plots of column-integrated relative soil moisture are being produced by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center and analyzed to facilitate the process. In addition to the Drought Monitor, these data are used to assess drought conditions for monthly feedback to the Alabama Drought Monitoring and Impact Group and the Tennessee Drought Task Force, which are comprised of federal, state, and local agencies and other water resources professionals.

White, Kristopher D.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Space Flight Resource Management for ISS Operations

Although the astronaut training flow for the International Space Station (ISS) spans 2 years, each astronaut or cosmonaut often spends most of their training alone. Rarely is it operationally feasible for all six ISS crewmembers to train together, even more unlikely that crewmembers can practice living together before launch. Likewise, ISS Flight Controller training spans 18 months of learning to manage incredibly complex systems remotely in plug-and-play ground teams that have little to no exposure to crewmembers before a mission. How then do all of these people quickly become a team - a team that must respond flexibly yet decisively to a variety of situations? The answer implemented at NASA is Space Flight Resource Management (SFRM), the so-called "soft skills" or team performance skills. Based on Crew Resource Management, SFRM was developed first for shuttle astronauts and focused on managing human errors during time-critical events (Rogers, et al. 2002). Given the nature of life on ISS, the scope of SFRM for ISS broadened to include teamwork during prolonged and routine operations (O'Keefe, 2008). The ISS SFRM model resembles a star with one competency for each point: Communication, Cross-Culture, Teamwork, Decision Making, Team Care, Leadership/Followership, Conflict Management, and Situation Awareness. These eight competencies were developed with international participation by the Human Behavior and Performance Training Working Group. Over the last two years, these competencies have been used to build a multi-modal SFRM training flow for astronaut candidates and flight controllers that integrates team performance skills into the practice of technical skills. Preliminary results show trainee skill increases as the flow progresses; and participants find the training invaluable to performing well and staying healthy during ISS operations. Future development of SFRM training will aim to help support indirect handovers as ISS operations evolve further with the retirement of the Space Shuttle Program.

Schmidt, Lacey L.↗
NASA NTRS1996

The Role of Independent V&V in Upstream Software Development Processes

This paper describes the role of Verification and Validation (V&V) during the requirements and high level design processes, and in particular the role of Independent V&V (IV&V). The job of IV&V during these phases is to ensure that the requirements are complete, consistent and valid, and to ensure that the high level design meets the requirements. This contrasts with the role of Quality Assurance (QA), which ensures that appropriate standards and process models are defined and applied. This paper describes the current state of practice for IV&V, concentrating on the process model used in NASA projects. We describe a case study, showing the processes by which problem reporting and tracking takes place, and how IV&V feeds into decision making by the development team. We then describe the problems faced in implementing IV&V. We conclude that despite a well defined process model, and tools to support it, IV&V is still beset by communication and coordination problems.

Easterbrook, Steve↗
NASA NTRS2003

Chandra Radiation Environment Modeling

CRMFLX (Chandra Radiation Model of ion FluX) is a radiation environment risk mitigation tool for use as a decision aid in planning the operations times for Chandra's Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer (ACIS) detector. The accurate prediction of the proton flux environment with energies of 100 - 200 keV is needed in order to protect the ACIS detector against proton degradation. Unfortunately, protons of this energy are abundant in the region of space Chandra must operate, and on-board particle detectors do not measure proton flux levels of the required energy range. This presentation will describe the plasma environment data analysis and modeling basis of the CRMFLX engineering environment model developed to predict the proton flux in the solar wind, magnetosheath, and magnetosphere phenomenological regions of geospace. The recently released CRMFLX Version 2 implementation includes an algorithm that propagates flux from an observation location to other regions of the magnetosphere based on convective ExB and VB-curvature particle drift motions. This technique has the advantage of more completely filling out the database and makes maximum use of limited data obtained during high Kp periods or in areas of the magnetosphere with poor satellite flux measurement coverage.

Minow, Joseph I.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Adaptive Management Methods to Protect the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Water Resource

The California Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta is the hub for California's water supply, conveying water from Northern to Southern California agriculture and communities while supporting important ecosystem services, agriculture, and communities in the Delta. Changes in climate, long-term drought, water quality changes, and expansion of invasive aquatic plants threatens ecosystems, impedes ecosystem restoration, and is economically, environmentally, and sociologically detrimental to the San Francisco Bay/California Delta complex. NASA Ames Research Center and the USDA-ARS partnered with the State of California and local governments to develop science-based, adaptive-management strategies for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. The project combines science, operations, and economics related to integrated management scenarios for aquatic weeds to help land and waterway managers make science-informed decisions regarding management and outcomes. The team provides a comprehensive understanding of agricultural and urban land use in the Delta and the major water sheds (San Joaquin/Sacramento) supplying the Delta and interaction with drought and climate impacts on the environment, water quality, and weed growth. The team recommends conservation and modified land-use practices and aids local Delta stakeholders in developing management strategies. New remote sensing tools have been developed to enhance ability to assess conditions, inform decision support tools, and monitor management practices. Science gaps in understanding how native and invasive plants respond to altered environmental conditions are being filled and provide critical biological response parameters for Delta-SWAT simulation modeling. Operational agencies such as the California Department of Boating and Waterways provide testing and act as initial adopter of decision support tools. Methods developed by the project can become routine land and water management tools in complex river delta systems.

Agriculture↗
NASA NTRS2010

PRA in Design: Increasing Confidence in Pre-Operational Assessments of Risks (Results of a Joint NASA/NRC Workshop)

In late 2009, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) jointly organized a workshop to discuss technical issues associated with application of risk assessments to early phases of system design. The workshop, which was coordinated by the Idaho National Laboratory, involved invited presentations from a number of PRA experts in the aerospace and nuclear fields and subsequent discussion to address the following questions: (a) What technical issues limit decision-makers' confidence in PRA results, especially at a pre-operational phase of the system life cycle? (b) What is being done to address these issues'? (c) What more can be done ? The workshop resulted in participant observations and suggestions on several technical issues, including the pursuit of non-traditional approaches to risk assessment and the verification and validation of risk models. The workshop participants also identified several important non-technical issues, including risk communication with decision makers, and the integration of PRA into the overall design process.

Youngblood, Robert↗
NASA NTRS1983

Ad Hoc modeling, expert problem solving, and R&T program evaluation

A simplified cost and time (SCAT) analysis program utilizing personal-computer technology is presented and demonstrated in the case of the NASA-Goddard end-to-end data system. The difficulties encountered in implementing complex program-selection and evaluation models in the research and technology field are outlined. The prototype SCAT system described here is designed to allow user-friendly ad hoc modeling in real time and at low cost. A worksheet constructed on the computer screen displays the critical parameters and shows how each is affected when one is altered experimentally. In the NASA case, satellite data-output and control requirements, ground-facility data-handling capabilities, and project priorities are intricately interrelated. Scenario studies of the effects of spacecraft phaseout or new spacecraft on throughput and delay parameters are shown. The use of a network of personal computers for higher-level coordination of decision-making processes is suggested, as a complement or alternative to complex large-scale modeling.

Silverman, B. G.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

UAM Decision Making

NASA, in collaboration with the industry and FAA, is conducting research on Urban Air Mobility (UAM). UAM introduces unique and evolving operational characteristics unaccounted for within current transportation planning tools. This evolving modality requires a unique and comprehensive tool that integrates new and existing planning methodologies to provide a holistic solution for decision makers. NASA has identified a number of barriers and research areas related to aircraft, airspace, and communities as well as infrastructure requirements. The research will identify requirements related to urban capable aircraft and airspace technologies. While civil aviation authorities are responsible for safety and structure of operations through the air, the local and regional authorities are responsible for decisions related to location of vertiports, helipads, and airports. The implementation of UAM vertiports will consider diverse regional system categories such as weather, airspace restrictions, noise acceptability, surface traffic, availability of power, vertipad locations, routes, impact on surface traffic, safety and risks, economic impact, ingress/egress for electric/hybrid VTOL aircraft, applicable fire codes, evacuation strategy, zoning requirements, emergency preparedness, interactions with surface traffic, and community acceptance. Therefore, regional implementation bodies need a decision making tool to assess systemic dependencies in preparation for UAM impact on the region. We are developing a simulation and modeling tool that allows regional authorities to consider many factors while deciding the location of vertiport and UAM operations. The objective of this paper is to present the conceptual design of a comprehensive decision making tool to assist planning bodies in developing UAM infrastructure. Specifically, the UAM planning tool will simultaneously consider all relevant local/regional considerations to identify for vertiport locations and UAM operations for a region.

Parimal Kopardekar↗
NASA NTRS2015

Videopanorama Frame Rate Requirements Derived from Visual Discrimination of Deceleration During Simulated Aircraft Landing

In order to determine the required visual frame rate (FR) for minimizing prediction errors with out-the-window video displays at remote/virtual airport towers, thirteen active air traffic controllers viewed high dynamic fidelity simulations of landing aircraft and decided whether aircraft would stop as if to be able to make a turnoff or whether a runway excursion would be expected. The viewing conditions and simulation dynamics replicated visual rates and environments of transport aircraft landing at small commercial airports. The required frame rate was estimated using Bayes inference on prediction errors by linear FRextrapolation of event probabilities conditional on predictions (stop, no-stop). Furthermore estimates were obtained from exponential model fits to the parametric and non-parametric perceptual discriminabilities d' and A (average area under ROC-curves) as dependent on FR. Decision errors are biased towards preference of overshoot and appear due to illusionary increase in speed at low frames rates. Both Bayes and A - extrapolations yield a framerate requirement of 35 < FRmin < 40 Hz. When comparing with published results [12] on shooter game scores the model based d'(FR)-extrapolation exhibits the best agreement and indicates even higher FRmin > 40 Hz for minimizing decision errors. Definitive recommendations require further experiments with FR > 30 Hz.

deceleration perception↗
NASA NTRS2005

Invasive Species Forecasting System: A Decision Support Tool for the U.S. Geological Survey: FY 2005 Benchmarking Report v.1.6

The National Institute of Invasive Species Science (NIISS), through collaboration with NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), recently began incorporating NASA observations and predictive modeling tools to fulfill its mission. These enhancements, labeled collectively as the Invasive Species Forecasting System (ISFS), are now in place in the NIISS in their initial state (V1.0). The ISFS is the primary decision support tool of the NIISS for the management and control of invasive species on Department of Interior and adjacent lands. The ISFS is the backbone for a unique information services line-of-business for the NIISS, and it provides the means for delivering advanced decision support capabilities to a wide range of management applications. This report describes the operational characteristics of the ISFS, a decision support tool of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Recent enhancements to the performance of the ISFS, attained through the integration of observations, models, and systems engineering from the NASA are benchmarked; i.e., described quantitatively and evaluated in relation to the performance of the USGS system before incorporation of the NASA enhancements. This report benchmarks Version 1.0 of the ISFS.

Stohlgren, Tom↗
NASA NTRS2014

Climate Scenarios for the NASA / USAID SERVIR Project: Challenges for Multiple Planning Horizons

SERVIR, an acronym meaning "to serve" in Spanish, is a joint venture between NASA and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) which provides satellite-based Earth observation data, modeling, and science applications to help developing nations in Central America, East Africa and the Himalayas improve environmental decision making. Anticipating climate variability / climate change impacts has now become an important component of the SERVIR efforts to build capacity in these regions. Uncertainty in hydrometeorological components of climate variations and exposure to extreme events across scales from weather to climate are of particular concern. We report here on work to construct scenarios or outlooks that are being developed as input drivers for decision support systems (DSSs) in a variety of settings. These DSSs are being developed jointly by a broad array NASA Applied Science Team (AST) Investigations and user communities in the three SERVIR Hub Regions, Central America, East Africa and the Himalayas. Issues span hydrologic / water resources modeling, agricultural productivity, and forest carbon reserves. The scenarios needed for these efforts encompass seasonal forecasts, interannual outlooks, and likely decadal / multi-decadal trends. Providing these scenarios across the different AST efforts enables some level of integration in considering regional responses to climate events. We will discuss a number of challenges in developing this continuum of scenarios including the identification and "mining" of predictability, addressing multiple continental regions, issues of downscaling global model integrations to regional / local applications (i.e. hydrologic and crop modeling). We compare / contrast the role of the U.S. National Multi- Model Experiment initiative in seasonal forecasts and the CMIP-5 climate model experiments in supporting these efforts. Examples of these scenarios, their use, and an assessment of their utility as well as limitations will be presented.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS1979

A cross impact methodology for the assessment of US telecommunications system with application to fiber optics development: Executive summary

A cross impact model of the U.S. telecommunications system was developed. For this model, it was necessary to prepare forecasts of the major segments of the telecommunications system, such as satellites, telephone, TV, CATV, radio broadcasting, etc. In addition, forecasts were prepared of the traffic generated by a variety of new or expanded services, such as electronic check clearing and point of sale electronic funds transfer. Finally, the interactions among the forecasts were estimated (the cross impacts). Both the forecasts and the cross impacts were used as inputs to the cross impact model, which could then be used to stimulate the future growth of the entire U.S. telecommunications system. By varying the inputs, technology changes or policy decisions with regard to any segment of the system could be evaluated in the context of the remainder of the system. To illustrate the operation of the model, a specific study was made of the deployment of fiber optics, throughout the telecommunications system.

Martino, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS1979

A cross impact methodology for the assessment of US telecommunications system with application to fiber optics development, volume 1

A cross impact model of the U.S. telecommunications system was developed. It was necessary to prepare forecasts of the major segments of the telecommunications system, such as satellites, telephone, TV, CATV, radio broadcasting, etc. In addition, forecasts were prepared of the traffic generated by a variety of new or expanded services, such as electronic check clearing and point of sale electronic funds transfer. Finally, the interactions among the forecasts were estimated (the cross impact). Both the forecasts and the cross impacts were used as inputs to the cross impact model, which could then be used to stimulate the future growth of the entire U.S. telecommunications system. By varying the inputs, technology changes or policy decisions with regard to any segment of the system could be evaluated in the context of the remainder of the system. To illustrate the operation of the model, a specific study was made of the deployment of fiber optics throughout the telecommunications system.

Martino, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS1990

An endorsement-based approach to student modeling for planner-controlled intelligent tutoring systems

An approach is described to student modeling for intelligent tutoring systems based on an explicit representation of the tutor's beliefs about the student and the arguments for and against those beliefs (called endorsements). A lexicographic comparison of arguments, sorted according to evidence reliability, provides a principled means of determining those beliefs that are considered true, false, or uncertain. Each of these beliefs is ultimately justified by underlying assessment data. The endorsement-based approach to student modeling is particularly appropriate for tutors controlled by instructional planners. These tutors place greater demands on a student model than opportunistic tutors. Numerical calculi approaches are less well-suited because it is difficult to correctly assign numbers for evidence reliability and rule plausibility. It may also be difficult to interpret final results and provide suitable combining functions. When numeric measures of uncertainty are used, arbitrary numeric thresholds are often required for planning decisions. Such an approach is inappropriate when robust context-sensitive planning decisions must be made. A TMS-based implementation of the endorsement-based approach to student modeling is presented, this approach is compared to alternatives, and a project history is provided describing the evolution of this approach.

Murray, William R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sheaf Theoretic Models for Routing in Delay Tolerant Networks

One key to communications scalability is routing; as such the goal of this paper is to build upon successful efforts towards general routing for space-based networks. With the ever-increasing accessibility of space, the number of assets is increasing, which becomes a critical communications burden in terms of scheduling, spectrum allocation, and resource allocation. In order to mitigate these concerns, a true networking approach is necessary; a standard approach for space systems is Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN). For DTN to be a meaningful answer to the Solar System Internet (SSI) question, DTN must offer meaningful routing solutions that span the heterogeneous collection of links and nodes. This, in turn, depends on the general structure of these disconnected networks -- a structure that remains largely unknown. In ground communications networks, routing decisions are made based on several pathfinding algorithms working in tandem. In previous work, we modeled Dijkstra's pathfinding algorithm using sheaves and provided a more general framework for determining paths using sheaves over graphs. Continuing our sheaf-theoretic approach, we introduce here an expansion of our pathfinding sheaf to handle more general information, and we expand on additional pathfinding algorithms that can be represented using sheaves. Moreover, we demonstrate means of combining multiple algorithms into a single sheaf structure so that changes of scale can be presented in the language of sheaves. In addition, space communications networks rely upon radio transmitter antennas which can establish broadcast and multicast communications options, rather than the primarily unicast options available to wired networks. Last year, we also introduced a multicast routing sheaf for presenting broadcast, unicast, and multicast communications over a graph. Extending that work, we also introduce queuing sheaves so that we can blend these communications options together to simulate a variety of routing options across space networks. In addition, we include examples to illustrate the applicability of this abstract theory to routing in disconnected networks.

Robert Short↗
NASA NTRS1975

Simulation of on-orbit maintenance cycle for LST

A maintenance simulation model of the Large Space Telescope has been developed to assess the operational cost sensitivity to system configuration options. The model lends itself to equipment-level selections for various subsystem alternatives. Maintenance decisions include considerations for LST spacecraft on-orbit service or retrieval. Tradeoffs are identified in terms of on-orbit maintenance for specific design concepts, with Space Shuttle revisit costs balanced against retrieval and ground-facility operations. Simulation output is in the form of computer plots of cost, availability, time to first maintenance, and a cost-effective Shuttle revisit frequency.

Donnelly, J. A.↗