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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1973

Radio astronomy Explorer-B in-flight mission control system development effort

A description is given of the development for the Mission Analysis Evaluation and Space Trajectory Operations (MAESTRO) program to be used for the in-flight decision making process during the translunar and lunar orbit adjustment phases of the flight of the Radio Astronomy Explorer-B. THe program serves two functions: performance and evaluation of preflight mission analysis, and in-flight support for the midcourse and lunar insertion command decisions that must be made by the flight director. The topics discussed include: analysis of program and midcourse guidance capabilities; methods for on-line control; printed displays of the MAESTRO program; and in-flight operational logistics and testing.

Lutsky, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Decision Tool that Combines Discrete Event Software Process Models with System Dynamics Pieces for Software Development Cost Estimation and Analysis

The development process for a large software development project is very complex and dependent on many variables that are dynamic and interrelated. Factors such as size, productivity and defect injection rates will have substantial impact on the project in terms of cost and schedule. These factors can be affected by the intricacies of the process itself as well as human behavior because the process is very labor intensive. The complex nature of the development process can be investigated with software development process models that utilize discrete event simulation to analyze the effects of process changes. The organizational environment and its effects on the workforce can be analyzed with system dynamics that utilizes continuous simulation. Each has unique strengths and the benefits of both types can be exploited by combining a system dynamics model and a discrete event process model. This paper will demonstrate how the two types of models can be combined to investigate the impacts of human resource interactions on productivity and ultimately on cost and schedule.

Mizell, Carolyn Barrett↗
DOE OSTI2019

Factors Influencing the Evaluation of Spent Fuel Rail Routes - 19010

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is considering use of rail transport for future shipments of commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) from where it currently resides to storage or disposal facilities. Rail carriers transporting in commerce certain quantities of 'rail security sensitive materials,' including SNF, face a regulatory requirement from the U.S. Department of Transportation to perform route risk assessments on an annual basis. In performing these assessments, each affected rail carrier must take into consideration twenty-seven different route factors, and document its rationale for selecting preferred and alternative routes on the basis of the safety and security risk analysis results. The major freight rail carriers operating in the U.S. have invested in the development of a proprietary tool, for rail carrier use only, to assist them in making route selections. This tool utilizes operations data input by each affected rail carrier in conjunction with geographic information systems (GIS) data to represent proximate risk factors, to be integrated and assigned to individual points and segments on the railroad network. Separate safety and security risk values are generated for each rail route under consideration. These values are then placed on an equivalent scoring basis and summed together to allow direct comparison between different route options and to rank order each route in terms of its relative attractiveness. Each affected rail carrier files an annual report for evaluation by the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) that documents its route risk assessment approach and analysis results. DOE has developed its own decision-support tool, Stakeholder Tool for Assessing Radioactive Transportation (START), which is capable of generating and analyzing routing options for transporting SNF by rail in addition to other freight modes. To better understand how affected rail carriers are likely to route SNF shipments in accordance with regulatory requirements and those route factors likely to be most influential in impacting DoE's evaluation of alternative SNF rail routes, a study was undertaken by DOE with the following objectives: - Review the shipment routes that have been historically used by rail carriers to move high hazard materials, including SNF; - Identify the physical, operational and proximate characteristics (attributes) associated with the rail segments that comprise these routes; - Evaluate the relationships between these attributes; - Make suggestions for how to streamline the factors used in DoE's rail route evaluations; - Contrast these relationships with how the factors are used by the rail carriers in applying their tool This paper describes the study approach, analysis results, and implications for rail route selection methodology. Differences between this evaluation and railroad industry information about rail route assessments are also discussed. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty Analysis of Consequence Management Data Products

An interlaboratory effort has developed a probabilistic framework to characterize uncertainty in data products that are developed by the US Department of Energy Consequence Management Program in support of the Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the probability distributions of input variables and the statistical methods used to propagate and quantify the overall uncertainty of the derived response levels that are used as contours on data products due to the uncertainty in input parameters. Uncertainty analysis results are also presented for several study scenarios. This paper includes an example data product to illustrate the potential real-world implications of incorporating uncertainty analysis results into data products that inform protective action decisions. Data product contours that indicate areas where public protection actions may be warranted can be customized to an acceptable level of uncertainty. Finally, the investigators seek feedback from decision makers and the radiological emergency response community to determine how uncertainty information can be used to support the protective action decision-making process and how it can be presented on data products.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
NASA NTRS2010

Architectural Analysis of Dynamically Reconfigurable Systems

oTpics include: the problem (increased flexibility of architectural styles decrease analyzability, behavior emerges and varies depending on the configuration, does the resulting system run according to the intended design, and architectural decisions can impede or facilitate testing); top down approach to architecture analysis, detection of defects and deviations, and architecture and its testability; currently targeted projects GMSEC and CFS; analyzing software architectures; analyzing runtime events; actual architecture recognition; GMPUB in Dynamic SAVE; sample output from new approach; taking message timing delays into account; CFS examples of architecture and testability; some recommendations for improved testablity; and CFS examples of abstract interfaces and testability; CFS example of opening some internal details.

Lindvall, Mikael↗
DOE OSTI2019

Decision-Making in Complex Dynamical Systems of Systems With One Opposing Subsystem

Many complex dynamical systems consist of a large number of interacting subsystems that operate harmoniously and make decisions that are designed for the benefit of the entire enterprise. If, in an attempt to disrupt the operation of the entire system, one subsystem gets attacked and is made to operate in a manner that is adversarial with the others, then the entire system suffers, resulting in an adversarial decision-making environment among its subsystems. Such an environment may affect not only the decision-making process of the attacked subsystem but also possibly the other remaining subsystems as well. The disruption caused by the attacked subsystem may cause the remaining subsystems to either coalesce as a unified team making team-based decisions, or disintegrate and act as independent decision-making entities. The decision-making process in these types of complex systems of systems is best analyzed within the general framework of cooperative and non-cooperative game theory. In this paper, we will develop an analysis that provides a theoretical basis for modeling the decision-making process in such complex systems. We show how cooperation among the subsystems can produce Noninferior Nash Strategies (NNS) that are fair and acceptable to all subsystems within the team while at the same time provide the subsystems in the team with the security of the Nash equilibrium against the opposing attacked subsystem. We contrast these strategies with the all Nash Strategies (NS) that would result if the operation of the entire system disintegrated and became adversarial among all subsystems as a result of the attack. An example of a system consisting of three subsystems with one opposing subsystem as a result of an attack is included to illustrate the results.

Talebi, Shahriar↗
NASA NTRS2004

Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS)

Developing credible mass and cost estimates for space exploration and development architectures require multidisciplinary analysis based on physics calculations, and parametric estimates derived from historical systems. Within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), concurrent engineering environment (CEE) activities integrate discipline oriented analysis tools through a computer network and accumulate the results of a multidisciplinary analysis team via a centralized database or spreadsheet Each minute of a design and analysis study within a concurrent engineering environment is expensive due the size of the team and supporting equipment The Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS) reduces the cost of architecture analysis by capturing the knowledge of discipline experts into system oriented spreadsheet models. A framework with a user interface presents a library of system models to an architecture analyst. The analyst selects models of launchers, in-space transportation systems, and excursion vehicles, as well as space and surface infrastructure such as propellant depots, habitats, and solar power satellites. After assembling the architecture from the selected models, the analyst can create a campaign comprised of missions spanning several years. The ATLAS controller passes analyst specified parameters to the models and data among the models. An integrator workbook calls a history based parametric analysis cost model to determine the costs. Also, the integrator estimates the flight rates, launched masses, and architecture benefits over the years of the campaign. An accumulator workbook presents the analytical results in a series of bar graphs. In no way does ATLAS compete with a CEE; instead, ATLAS complements a CEE by ensuring that the time of the experts is well spent Using ATLAS, an architecture analyst can perform technology sensitivity analysis, study many scenarios, and see the impact of design decisions. When the analyst is satisfied with the system configurations, technology portfolios, and deployment strategies, he or she can present the concepts to a team, which will conduct a detailed, discipline-oriented analysis within a CEE. An analog to this approach is the music industry where a songwriter creates the lyrics and music before entering a recording studio.

O'Neil, Daniel A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Land-use analysis using infrastructure representations and high-resolution flood inundation mapping techniques

In the face of climate change and population growth in coastal regions, land-use analysis efforts are more challenging than ever. Land-use decision-makers in coastal communities are burdened with the difficult choices of where to place new homes versus other assets. While there has been an increased focus on hazard mitigation and disaster resilience in the field of planning, evidence points towards continued development in risk-prone areas including flood zones. Residential development within flood zones specifically continues to be a major issue. To help counter this trend, this study introduces a novel land-use analysis method, coupling topographic flood inundation mapping techniques with digital elevation model (DEM) adaptations. This Topographic Model Scenario Generation workflow can be used by planners early in the land-use decision making process and provides an alternative to high-computational hydraulic models. The analysis also includes the identification of strengths and weaknesses of topographic models' recognition of built infrastructure assets, adding to a limited body of knowledge addressing recommended uses of such models. Levees and canals prove particularly functional in this context while detention ponds less so, likely due to a lack of total water mass accountability. Lastly, we provide a functional demonstration in Southeast Texas to illustrate the workflow's ability to create multiple infrastructure scenarios and visualize their effects across different flood events.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1975

Acreage estimation, feature selection, and signature extension dependent upon the maximum likelihood decision rule

A maximum likelihood estimation technique is used for the analysis of agricultural remote sensor data. The m-class probability of misclassification is estimated using unlabeled test samples and labeled training samples. A bound on the variance of a proposed unbiased estimator of the m-class probability of error is derived. The particular case in which each class density is assumed to be a mixture of multivariate normal densities is considered. The extension of spectral signatures in space and time is discussed.

Quirein, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Knowledge-based decision support for Space Station assembly sequence planning

A complete Personal Analysis Assistant (PAA) for Space Station Freedom (SSF) assembly sequence planning consists of three software components: the system infrastructure, intra-flight value added, and inter-flight value added. The system infrastructure is the substrate on which software elements providing inter-flight and intra-flight value-added functionality are built. It provides the capability for building representations of assembly sequence plans and specification of constraints and analysis options. Intra-flight value-added provides functionality that will, given the manifest for each flight, define cargo elements, place them in the National Space Transportation System (NSTS) cargo bay, compute performance measure values, and identify violated constraints. Inter-flight value-added provides functionality that will, given major milestone dates and capability requirements, determine the number and dates of required flights and develop a manifest for each flight. The current project is Phase 1 of a projected two phase program and delivers the system infrastructure. Intra- and inter-flight value-added were to be developed in Phase 2, which has not been funded. Based on experience derived from hundreds of projects conducted over the past seven years, ISX developed an Intelligent Systems Engineering (ISE) methodology that combines the methods of systems engineering and knowledge engineering to meet the special systems development requirements posed by intelligent systems, systems that blend artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies with more conventional computing technologies. The ISE methodology defines a phased program process that begins with an application assessment designed to provide a preliminary determination of the relative technical risks and payoffs associated with a potential application, and then moves through requirements analysis, system design, and development.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2022

Benefit Analysis of CO 2 Delivery Options for Offshore Storage or Enhanced Oil Recovery

The analysis presented in this report evaluates the benefits of CO₂ offshore transport via pipeline or ship within the GOM. It takes a top-down framework to estimate the costs. First, this analysis designed a reduced-order model (ROM) based on the cash flows in the FECM/NETL CO₂ Transport Cost Model (also known as CO2_T_COM). The ROM takes capital expenses (CAPEX) and operating expenses (OPEX) to calculate the CO₂ breakeven price based on the cash flows. Second, this analysis developed regression models utilizing published data from other analyses to estimate CAPEX and OPEX. Since the ROM is a simplified cash flow calculation, it is easy to exchange the core regression models to estimate various costs. The ROM and regression models provided a framework that can be easily used by other researchers, decision-makers, operators, and regulators. The objective of this analysis is to assess the CO₂ breakeven cost range for pipeline and ship transport of captured CO₂ given the CO₂ source and storage reservoir located in the GOM.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Orbit Determination Comparison Study and Demonstration for Rendezvous and Docking in a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit from the Lunar Surface

For the upcoming NASA Artemis III mission and those that follow, both the Human Landing System (HLS) and Orion programs are invested in understanding the impacts of ground tracking performance in supporting rendezvous and docking in a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO). Several critical questions must be answered to ensure mission success and crew safety and an assortment of analysis tools are being incorporated to address them. Two of these tools, LINCOV and MONTE, are currently providing program decision making results through HLS Insight, HLS NASA-collaborations, and Orion/Gateway cross-program analysis. To ensure consistency in the orbit determination performance, a comparison trade-study is performed using a low-lunar orbit to NRHO rendezvous scenario anticipated for the upcoming Artemis missions. An overview of the two analysis tools is provided along with a detailed step-by-step evaluation of the core capabilities and models related to the orbit determination process. This incremental comparison effort reveals both tools produce consistent solutions for the criteria investigated to within 0.3\% difference in the absolute position state estimate at key decision making epochs with all errors sources activated.

orbit determination↗
DOE OSTI2020

Supporting Bioproducts Industry Growth with a System Dynamics Decision-Support Tool

A bio-based economy requires chemical products as well as fuels to be produced from biomass. Although a variety of universities, government agencies, start-ups and established firms have engaged in bioproduct development, many projects have failed to reach the point of commercialization and commercialized bioproducts struggle to capture and maintain market share. To date, there has been no general research into the factors that contribute to bioproduct failure or success. This work presents the Bioproduct Transition Dynamics (BTD) system dynamics model, a decision-support tool that simulates the bioproduct development process from pre-piloting research through construction of the first commercial-scale plant, as well as the processes of obtaining funding from investors and government agencies. The core of the BTD is a feedback loop between bioproduct developers and funders, which relates development progress measured with indicators such as net present value to funders’ decisions to continue investing. External factors such as feedstock prices, market size and growth, and the existence of bioproduct consumers also influence a development project’s chances of receiving follow-on funding. Virtually any bioproduct can be represented with the BTD: direct replacements, performance-advantaged products, niche and commodity markets can all be modeled. The goal of the BTD project is to inform decisions made by developers in both established firms and start-ups, investors, government agencies, and other stakeholders interested in growing the nascent U.S. bioproducts industry. This talk will cover the general structure and functionality of the BTD, and present results from an analysis performed with the BTD to demonstrate its use as a decision-support tool and the insights it can provide. The goal of the analysis is to identify the most critical factors that lead to direct replacement and performance-advantaged bioproduct projects emerging successfully from the “Valley of Death”, and to determine if these factors differ between the two bioproduct types.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning-Based Classification of Lignocellulosic Biomass from Pyrolysis-Molecular Beam Mass Spectrometry Data

High-throughput analysis of biomass is necessary to ensure consistent and uniform feedstocks for agricultural and bioenergy applications and is needed to inform genomics and systems biology models. Pyrolysis followed by mass spectrometry such as molecular beam mass spectrometry (py-MBMS) analyses are becoming increasingly popular for the rapid analysis of biomass cell wall composition and typically require the use of different data analysis tools depending on the need and application. Here, the authors report the py-MBMS analysis of several types of lignocellulosic biomass to gain an understanding of spectral patterns and variation with associated biomass composition and use machine learning approaches to classify, differentiate, and predict biomass types on the basis of py-MBMS spectra. Py-MBMS spectra were also corrected for instrumental variance using generalized linear modeling (GLM) based on the use of select ions relative abundances as spike-in controls. Machine learning classification algorithms e.g., random forest, k-nearest neighbor, decision tree, Gaussian Naïve Bayes, gradient boosting, and multilayer perceptron classifiers were used. The k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) classifier generally performed the best for classifications using raw spectral data, and the decision tree classifier performed the worst. After normalization of spectra to account for instrumental variance, all the classifiers had comparable and generally acceptable performance for predicting the biomass types, although the k-NN and decision tree classifiers were not as accurate for prediction of specific sample types. Gaussian Naïve Bayes (GNB) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) classifiers performed better than the k-NN and the decision tree classifiers for the prediction of biomass mixtures. The data analysis workflow reported here could be applied and extended for comparison of biomass samples of varying types, species, phenotypes, and/or genotypes or subjected to different treatments, environments, etc. to further elucidate the sources of spectral variance, patterns, and to infer compositional information based on spectral analysis, particularly for analysis of data without a priori knowledge of the feedstock composition or identity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Glucuronidase Function in Clinical Samples

The purpose of this CRADA is to expand upon the work previously performed through CRADA No. PNNL/381. As explained in the previous CRADA, Glucuronidase enzymes are important for contributing to enterohepatic recycling of numerous therapeutic drug compounds, resulting in impaired or prolonged drug activity. Further, other pathways within the gut, such as bile acid metabolism through the action of bile salt hydrolase enzymes (BSH), have shown to impact both the development of colon cancers and impact recovery. Adapting the activity-based protein profiling (ABPP) technologies developed at PNNL to a microtiter plate-based chemical probe assay was the first step in demonstrating the clinical usability of the technology. With assay proof-of-concept complete through CRADA No. PNNL/381, clinical cohort testing using the developed assay is the next step towards commercialization of this technology. Some chemotherapeutic agents are mediated by gut-produced microbiota through enterohepatic circulation. For example, irinotecan, the first line treatment for many colon and other cancers, can be recycled into a patient’s system through gut microbiota produced glucuronidase enzymes. A significant percentage of patients subjected to irinotecan treatment experience dose-limiting diarrhea and gastric distress that limits treatment options and delays effective intervention. Relatedly, bile salt hydrolases modify ratios of bile acids in the gut, which alter nutrient and pharmaceutical uptake by the intestines and impact patient response to treatment. Coupled together these gut-mediated disorders can significantly decrease patient outcomes. In this project, we propose to investigate a clinical cohort of samples from colon cancer patients to better understand gut microbiome activities surrounding microbiota produced glucuronidases to aid clinician decisions and enhance therapeutic intervention. Our project will measure glucuronidase activity of individual patients and compare this activity to a variety of factors, including patient medical history, treatment response, and overall outcomes. Data will be compared with metagenomic, metabolomic, and proteomic analyses to fully defined the entire gut microbiome space and correlate results with the glucuronidase activity. Resultant analysis is expected to provide actionable information to direct decision making towards therapeutic intervention.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1978

Analysis of complex decisionmaking processes

The analysis of corporate decisionmaking processes related to major system developments is unusually difficult because of the number of decisionmakers involved in the process and the long development cycle. A method for analyzing such decision processes is developed and illustrated through its application to the analysis of the commercial jet engine development process. The method uses interaction matrices as the key tool for structuring the problem, recording data, and analyzing the data to establish the rank order of the major factors affecting development decisions. In the example, the use of interaction matrices permitted analysts to collect and analyze approximately 50 factors that influenced decisions during the four phases of the development cycle, and to determine the key influencers of decisions at each development phase. The results of this study indicate that the cost of new technology installed on an aircraft is the prime concern of the engine manufacturer.

Hill, J. D.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Identifying and Exploiting Diurnal Motifs in Wind Generation Time Series Data

Wind energy is scheduled on the power grid using 0–6 h ahead forecasts generated from computer simulations or historical data. When the forecasts are inaccurate, control room operators use their expertise, as well as the actual generation from previous days, to estimate the amount of energy to schedule. However, this is a challenge, and it would be useful for the operators to have additional information they can exploit to make better informed decisions. In this paper, we use techniques from time series analysis to determine if there are motifs, or frequently occurring diurnal patterns in wind generation data. Here we compare two different representations of the data and four different ways of identifying the number of motifs. Using data from wind farms in Tehachapi Pass and mid-Columbia Basin, we describe our findings and discuss how these motifs can be used to guide scheduling decisions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2009

Formal methods for modeling and analysis of hybrid systems

A technique based on the use of a quantifier elimination decision procedure for real closed fields and simple theorem proving to construct a series of successively finer qualitative abstractions of hybrid automata is taught. The resulting abstractions are always discrete transition systems which can then be used by any traditional analysis tool. The constructed abstractions are conservative and can be used to establish safety properties of the original system. The technique works on linear and non-linear polynomial hybrid systems: the guards on discrete transitions and the continuous flows in all modes can be specified using arbitrary polynomial expressions over the continuous variables. An exemplar tool in the SAL environment built over the theorem prover PVS is detailed. The technique scales well to large and complex hybrid systems.

Tiwari, Ashish↗