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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2021

Stellar Mass Black Hole Formation and Multimessenger Signals from Three-dimensional Rotating Core-collapse Supernova Simulations

We present self-consistent 3D core-collapse supernova simulations of a 40 ${M}_{\odot }$ progenitor model using the isotropic diffusion source approximation for neutrino transport and an effective general relativistic potential up to `0.9 s postbounce. We consider three different rotational speeds with initial angular velocities of ${{\rm{\Omega }}}_{0}=0$, 0.5, and 1 rad s -1 and investigate the impact of rotation on shock dynamics, black hole (BH) formation, and gravitational wave (GW) signals. The rapidly rotating model undergoes an early explosion at ~250 ms postbounce and shows signs of the low $T/| W| $ instability. We do not find BH formation in this model within ~460 ms postbounce. In contrast, we find BH formation at 776 ms postbounce and 936 ms postbounce for the nonrotating and slowly rotating models, respectively. The slowly rotating model explodes at ~650 ms postbounce, and the subsequent fallback accretion onto the proto–neutron star (PNS) results in BH formation. In addition, the standing accretion shock instability induces rotation of the PNS in the model that started with a nonrotating progenitor. Assuming conservation of specific angular momentum during BH formation, this corresponds to a BH spin parameter of a = J/M = 0.046. However, if no explosion sets in, all the angular momentum will eventually be accreted by the BH, resulting in a nonspinning BH. The successful explosion of the slowly rotating model drastically slows down the accretion onto the PNS, allowing continued cooling and contraction that results in an extremely high GW frequency (f ~ 3000 Hz) at BH formation, while the nonrotating model generates GW signals similar to our corresponding 2D simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Extreme Variability Quasars in Their Various States. I. The Sample Selection and Composite SDSS Spectra

Extremely variable quasars (EVQs) are a population of sources showing large optical photometric variability revealed by time-domain surveys. The physical origin of such extreme variability is yet unclear. In this first paper of a series, we construct the largest-ever sample of 14,012 EVQs using more than 15 yr of photometric data from Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and Pan-STARRS1. We divide the EVQs into five subsamples according to the relative brightness of each EVQ during SDSS spectroscopic observation compared with the mean brightness from photometric observations. Corresponding control samples of normal quasars are built with matched redshift, bolometric luminosity, and supermassive black hole mass. We obtain the composite SDSS spectra of EVQs in various states and their corresponding control samples. We find EVQs exhibit clearly bluer SDSS spectra during bright states and clearly redder spectra during dim states, consistent with the "bluer-when-brighter" trend widely seen in normal quasars. We further find that the line equivalent widths (EWs) of broad Mg II, C IV and [O III] (but not broad Hβ, which is yet puzzling) gradually decreases from the dim state to the bright state, similar to the so-called intrinsic Baldwin effect commonly seen in normal active galactic nuclei. In addition, EVQs have consistently larger line EWs compared with the control samples. We also see that EVQs show slight excess in the very broad line component compared with control samples. Possible explanations for the discoveries are discussed. Our findings support the hypothesis that EVQs are in the tail of a broad distribution of quasar properties but are not a distinct population.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Magnetic Field Strength from Turbulence Theory. I. Using Differential Measure Approach

The mean plane-of-sky magnetic field strength is traditionally obtained from the combination of polarization and spectroscopic data using the Davis–Chandrasekhar–Fermi (DCF) technique. However, we identify the major problem of the DCF technique to be its disregard of the anisotropic character of MHD turbulence. On the basis of the modern MHD turbulence theory we introduce a new way of obtaining magnetic field strength from observations. Unlike the DCF technique, the new technique uses not the dispersion of the polarization angle and line-of-sight velocities, but increments of these quantities given by the structure functions. To address the variety of astrophysical conditions for which our technique can be applied, we consider turbulence in both media with magnetic pressure higher than the gas pressure, corresponding, e.g., to molecular clouds, and media with gas pressure higher than the magnetic pressure, corresponding to the warm neutral medium. We provide general expressions for arbitrary admixtures of Alfvén, slow, and fast modes in these media and consider in detail particular cases relevant to diffuse media and molecular clouds. We successfully test our results using synthetic observations obtained from MHD turbulence simulations. We demonstrate that our differential measure approach, unlike the DCF technique, can be used to measure the distribution of magnetic field strengths, can provide magnetic field measurements with limited data, and is much more stable in the presence of induced large-scale variations of nonturbulent nature. Furthermore, our study uncovers the deficiencies of earlier DCF research.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Designing an Optimal Kilonova Search Using DECam for Gravitational-wave Events

We address the problem of optimally identifying all kilonovae detected via gravitational-wave emission in the upcoming LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing run, O4, which is expected to be sensitive to a factor of ~7 more binary neutron star (BNS) alerts than previously. Electromagnetic follow-up of all but the brightest of these new events will require >1 m telescopes, for which limited time is available. We present an optimized observing strategy for the DECam during O4. We base our study on simulations of gravitational-wave events expected for O4 and wide-prior kilonova simulations. We derive the detectabilities of events for realistic observing conditions. We optimize our strategy for confirming a kilonova while minimizing telescope time. For a wide range of kilonova parameters, corresponding to a fainter kilonova compared to GW170817/AT 2017gfo, we find that, with this optimal strategy, the discovery probability for electromagnetic counterparts with the DECam is ~80% at the nominal BNS gravitational-wave detection limit for O4 (190 Mpc), which corresponds to an ~30% improvement compared to the strategy adopted during the previous observing run. For more distant events (~330 Mpc), we reach an ~60% probability of detection, a factor of ~2 increase. For a brighter kilonova model dominated by the blue component that reproduces the observations of GW170817/AT 2017gfo, we find that we can reach ~90% probability of detection out to 330 Mpc, representing an increase of ~20%, while also reducing the total telescope time required to follow up events by ~20%.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Existence of the Plateau Emission in High-energy Gamma-Ray Burst Light Curves Observed by Fermi-LAT

The Large Area Telescope (LAT) on board the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi) shows long-lasting high-energy emission in many gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), similar to X-ray afterglows observed by the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory (Swift). Some LAT light curves (LCs) show a late-time flattening reminiscent of X-ray plateaus. We explore the presence of plateaus in LAT temporally extended emission analyzing GRBs from the second Fermi-LAT GRB Catalog from 2008 to 2016 May with known redshifts, and check whether they follow closure relations corresponding to four distinct astrophysical environments predicted by the external forward shock model. We find that three LCs can be fit by the same phenomenological model used to fit X-ray plateaus and show tentative evidence for the existence of plateaus in their high-energy extended emission. The most favorable scenario is a slow-cooling regime, whereas the preferred density profile for each GRBs varies from a constant-density interstellar medium to an r –2 wind environment. We also compare the end time of the plateaus in γ-rays and X-rays using a statistical comparison with 222 Swift GRBs with plateaus and known redshifts from 2005 January to 2019 August. Within this comparison, the case of GRB 090510 shows an indication of chromaticity at the end time of the plateau. Finally, we update the 3D fundamental plane relation among the rest-frame end time of the plateau, its correspondent luminosity, and the peak prompt luminosity for 222 GRBs observed by Swift. We find that these three LAT GRBs follow this relation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS): 90 GHz Telescope Pointing, Beam Profile, Window Function, and Polarization Performance

The Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) is a telescope array that observes the cosmic microwave background (CMB) over ∼75% of the sky from the Atacama Desert, Chile, at frequency bands centered near 40, 90, 150, and 220 GHz. CLASS measures the large angular scale CMB polarization to constrain the tensor-to-scalar ratio and the optical depth to last scattering. This paper presents the optical characterization of the 90 GHz telescope. Observations of the Moon establish the pointing while dedicated observations of Jupiter are used for beam calibration. The standard deviations of the pointing error in azimuth, elevation, and boresight angle are 1$^{'}_.$3, 2$^{'}_.$1, and 2$^{'}_.$0, respectively, over the first 3 yr of observations. This corresponds to a pointing uncertainty ∼7% of the beam’s full width at half-maximum (FWHM). The effective azimuthally symmetrized instrument 1D beam estimated at 90 GHz has an FWHM of 0$^°_.$620 ± 0$^°_.$003 and a solid angle of 138.7 ± 0.6(stats.) ± 1.1(sys.) μsr integrated to a radius of 4°. The corresponding beam window function drops to $b^2_ℓ$ = 0.93, 0.71, 0.14 at ℓ = 30, 100, 300, respectively. Far-sidelobes are studied using detector-centered intensity maps of the Moon and measured to be at a level of 10 −3 or below relative to the peak. The polarization angle of Tau A estimated from preliminary survey maps is 149°.6 ± 0°.2(stats.) in equatorial coordinates. The instrumental temperature-to-polarization (T → P) leakage fraction, inferred from per-detector demodulated Jupiter scan data, has a monopole component at the level of 1.7 × 10 −3 , a dipole component with an amplitude of 4.3 × 10 −3 , with no evidence of quadrupolar leakage.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

As a Matter of Dynamical Range – Scale Dependent Energy Dynamics in MHD Turbulence

Abstract Magnetized turbulence is ubiquitous in many astrophysical and terrestrial plasmas but no universal theory exists. Even the detailed energy dynamics in magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence are still not well understood. We present a suite of subsonic, super-Alfvénic, high plasma beta MHD turbulence simulations that only vary in their dynamical range, i.e., in their separation between the large-scale forcing and dissipation scales, and their dissipation mechanism (implicit large eddy simulation, ILES, and direct numerical simulation (DNS)). Using an energy transfer analysis framework we calculate the effective numerical viscosities and resistivities, and demonstrate that all ILES calculations of MHD turbulence are resolved and correspond to an equivalent visco-resistive MHD turbulence calculation. Increasing the number of grid points used in an ILES corresponds to lowering the dissipation coefficients, i.e., larger (kinetic and magnetic) Reynolds numbers for a constant forcing scale. Independently, we use this same framework to demonstrate that—contrary to hydrodynamic turbulence—the cross-scale energy fluxes are not constant in MHD turbulence. This applies both to different mediators (such as cascade processes or magnetic tension) for a given dynamical range as well as to a dependence on the dynamical range itself, which determines the physical properties of the flow. We do not observe any indication of convergence even at the highest resolution (largest Reynolds numbers) simulation at 2048 3 cells, calling into question whether an asymptotic regime in MHD turbulence exists, and, if so, what it looks like.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Framework for Characterizing the Initial Thermal Conditions of Light-Duty Vehicles in Response to Representative Utilization Patterns, Ambient Conditions, and Vehicle Technologies

It is widely understood that the thermal state of a light-duty vehicle at the beginning of a trip influences the vehicle performance throughout the drive cycle. Cold starts, or initial states with component temperatures near ambient conditions, are strongly correlated with reduced vehicle performance and energy efficiency and with increased emissions. Despite this understanding, there is little literature available that characterizes initial thermal states beyond empirical studies and simplified analyses of dwell times. We introduce a framework that considers vehicle activity patterns, including the previous drive event, duration of the previous dwell event, and relevant ambient conditions occurring during these events. Moreover, the framework allows for technologies to influence the prominence of cold starts and warm starts. An example application of the methodology using a powertrain model approach revealed the significance of all constituent factors: controlling for ambient conditions, the shortest dwell lengths corresponded to an average initial oil temperature of 70°C versus 23°C for the long dwell length simulations, and aggressive conditioning cycles corresponded to an average initial oil temperature of 51°C versus only 35°C for a short conditioning cycle. The coldest ambient conditions evaluated (-30°C to -10°C) produced a weighted initial oil temperature of 19°C versus 57°C for the warmest ambient conditions evaluated (30°C to 50°C). Finally, we introduce weighting factors that account for the real-world frequency of conditioning cycle and dwell length combinations. The procedure outlined may be useful for discovering real-world performance improvements associated with vehicle technologies, a topic of interest to both vehicle manufacturers and regulators.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Heterogeneous Machine Learning on High Performance Computing for End to End Driving of Autonomous Vehicles

Current artificial intelligence techniques for end to end driving of autonomous vehicles typically rely on a single form of learning or training processes along with a corresponding dataset or simulation environment. Relatively speaking, success has been shown for a variety of learning modalities in which it can be shown that the machine can successfully “drive” a vehicle. However, the realm of real-world driving extends significantly beyond the realm of limited test environments for machine training. This creates an enormous gap in capability between these two realms. With their superior neural network structures and learning capabilities, humans can be easily trained within a short period of time to proceed from limited test environments to real world driving. For machines though, this gap is guarded by at least two challenges: 1) machine learning techniques remain brittle and unable to generalize to a wide range of scenarios, and 2) effective training data that enhances generalization and generates the desired driving behavior. Further, each challenge can be computationally intensive on its own thereby exasperating the gap. Moreover, is has not yet been shown that a single form of learning or training is capable of addressing a large range of scenarios. As a result, solving the first challenge does not inherently solve the second and vice versa. The work described here discusses an approach to address the first challenge that would also provide a foundation for solving the second. Our approach utilizes a combination of conditional imitation learning with a static dataset, reinforcement learning with a simulation environment, and high-performance computing to train a neural network. As a result, this reduces the “time to solution” from to the existing techniques for autonomous driving and provides an extensible framework to address the second key challenge.

autonomous vehicles↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectometry and Steepest Descent Inversion to Measure Complex Impedance

In this paper, we present a method for estimating complex impedances using reflectometry and a modified steepest descent inversion algorithm. We simulate spread spectrum time domain reflectometry (SSTDR), which can measure complex impedances on energized systems for an experimental setup with resistive and capacitive loads. A parametric function, which includes both a misfit function and stabilizer function, is created. The misfit function is a least squares estimate of how close the model data matches observed data. The stabilizer function prevents the steepest descent algorithm from becoming unstable and diverging. Steepest descent iteratively identifies the model parameters that minimize the parametric function. We validate the algorithm by correctly identifying the model parameters (capacitance and resistance) associated with simulated SSTDR data, with added 3 dB white Gaussian noise. With the stabilizer function, the steepest descent algorithm estimates of the model parameters are bounded within a specified range. Furthermore, the errors for capacitance (220pF to 820pF) and resistance (50 Ω to 270 Ω) are < 10%, corresponding to a complex impedance magnitude |R +1/jωC| of 53 Ω to 510 Ω.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Holographic pseudoentanglement and the complexity of the AdS/CFT dictionary

The `quantum gravity in the lab' paradigm suggests that quantum computers might shed light on quantum gravity by simulating the CFT side of the AdS/CFT correspondence and mapping the results to the AdS side. This relies on the assumption that the duality map (the `dictionary') is efficient to compute. In this work, we show that the complexity of the AdS/CFT dictionary is surprisingly subtle: there might be cases in which one can efficiently apply operators to the CFT state (a task we call 'operator reconstruction') without being able to extract basic properties of the dual bulk state such as its geometry (which we call 'geometry reconstruction'). Geometry reconstruction corresponds to the setting where we want to extract properties of a completely unknown bulk dual from a simulated CFT boundary state. We demonstrate that geometry reconstruction may be generically hard due to the connection between geometry and entanglement in holography. In particular we construct ensembles of states whose entanglement approximately obey the Ryu-Takayanagi formula for arbitrary geometries, but which are nevertheless computationally indistinguishable. This suggests that even for states with the special entanglement structure of holographic CFT states, geometry reconstruction might be hard. This result should be compared with existing evidence that operator reconstruction is generically easy in AdS/CFT. A useful analogy for the difference between these two tasks is quantum fully homomorphic encryption (FHE): this encrypts quantum states in such a way that no efficient adversary can learn properties of the state, but operators can be applied efficiently to the encrypted state. We show that quantum FHE can separate the complexity of geometry reconstruction vs operator reconstruction, which raises the question whether FHE could be a useful lens through which to view AdS/CFT.

FOS: Physical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multicentered black hole saddles for supersymmetric indices

The supersymmetric index in string theory can sometimes have a discontinuous integer-valued jump at co-dimension one surfaces in moduli space called walls of marginal stability. When the index counts black hole microstates, crossing such walls of marginal stability amounts to the appearance or disappearance of a large number of such states. While wall-crossing has been understood in string theory and through the disappearance of extremal Lorentzian supergravity solutions as the moduli are varied, there has been no understanding about how the discontinuous changes in the index occur at the level of the gravitational path integral. In this paper, we find the finite-temperature saddles in $4d$ flatspace supergravity in which fermionic fields are periodic when going around the thermal circle that correspond to the multi-center black hole contributions to the index. By analyzing these saddles, we can explain how wall-crossing occurs: as the scalar moduli in supergravity are varied at the asymptotic boundary, for a given split of the charges, the saddle point equations can no longer be solved and, consequently, the corresponding multi-center saddle no longer contributes to the index. While the values of the scalars and the jump in the index when a wall is crossed all agree with the prediction from previously found Lorentzian supergravity solutions, the saddles in the index exhibit a much richer moduli space, which we analyze in detail.

FOS: Physical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Kinematic flow from the flow of cuts

The wavefunction coefficients of conformally coupled scalars in power-law FRW cosmologies satisfy differential equations governed by a set of simple combinatorial rules known as the kinematic flow. In this paper we derive the kinematic flow, expressed using a set of differential forms referred to as the cut basis, from a geometric perspective, relying solely on the cosmological hyperplane arrangement and without invoking bulk physics. Each element of the cut basis corresponds to the positive geometry associated to an independent cut of the physical FRW-form and can be labeled by decorating (minors of) the truncated Feynman graph with an acyclic orientation. We provide a straightforward prescription to associate a logarithmic differential form to each element of the cut basis by considering its corresponding decorated graph. Moreover, we show that the residues of the physical FRW-form are canonical forms of certain graphical zonotopes labeled by the same set of decorated graphs. These zonotopes control the cut combinatorics -- flow of cuts -- of the physical FRW-form and the cut basis (by construction). Using the theory of relative twisted cohomology and intersection theory, we derive a closed form formula for the differential equations of the cut basis. We also introduce combinatorial rules that compute the kinematic differential of any basis element without explicit calculation. The combinatorics of our differential equations is a natural consequence of the flow of cuts and is equivalent (up to rescaling) to the kinematic flow for the recently studied time integral basis. In particular, our differential equations decouple into exponentially many sectors, one for each way of cutting a subset of edges of the graph.

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Strategy and performance of the CMS long-lived particle trigger program in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13.6 TeV

In the physics program of the CMS experiment during the CERN LHC Run 3, which started in 2022, the long-lived particle triggers have been improved and extended to expand the scope of the corresponding searches. These dedicated triggers and their performance are described in this paper, using several theoretical benchmark models that extend the standard model of particle physics. The results are based on proton-proton collision data collected with the CMS detector during 2022$-$2024 at a center-of-mass energy of 13.6 TeV, corresponding to integrated luminosities of up to 123 fb$^{-1}$.

FOS: Physical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Southern Ocean latitudinal gradients of cloud condensation nuclei

Abstract. The Southern Ocean region is one of the most pristine in the world and serves as an important proxy for the pre-industrial atmosphere. Improving our understanding of the natural processes in this region is likely to result in the largest reductions in the uncertainty of climate and earth system models. While remoteness from anthropogenic and continental sources is responsible for its clean atmosphere, this also results in the dearth of atmospheric observations in the region. Here we present a statistical summary of the latitudinal gradient of aerosol (condensation nuclei larger than 10 nm, CN10) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN at various supersaturations) concentrations obtained from five voyages spanning the Southern Ocean between Australia and Antarctica from late spring to early autumn (October to March) of the 2017/18 austral seasons. Three main regions of influence were identified: the northern sector (40–45∘ S), where continental and anthropogenic sources coexisted with background marine aerosol populations; the mid-latitude sector (45–65∘ S), where the aerosol populations reflected a mixture of biogenic and sea-salt aerosol; and the southern sector (65–70∘ S), south of the atmospheric polar front, where sea-salt aerosol concentrations were greatly reduced and aerosol populations were primarily biologically derived sulfur species with a significant history in the Antarctic free troposphere. The northern sector showed the highest number concentrations with median (25th to 75th percentiles) CN10 and CCN0.5 concentrations of 681 (388–839) cm−3 and 322 (105–443) cm−3, respectively. Concentrations in the mid-latitudes were typically around 350 cm−3 and 160 cm−3 for CN10 and CCN0.5, respectively. In the southern sector, concentrations rose markedly, reaching 447 (298–446) cm−3 and 232 (186–271) cm−3 for CN10 and CCN0.5, respectively. The aerosol composition in this sector was marked by a distinct drop in sea salt and increase in both sulfate fraction and absolute concentrations, resulting in a substantially higher CCN0.5/CN10 activation ratio of 0.8 compared to around 0.4 for mid-latitudes. Long-term measurements at land-based research stations surrounding the Southern Ocean were found to be good representations at their respective latitudes; however this study highlighted the need for more long-term measurements in the region. CCN observations at Cape Grim (40∘39′ S) corresponded with CCN measurements from northern and mid-latitude sectors, while CN10 observations only corresponded with observations from the northern sector. Measurements from a simultaneous 2-year campaign at Macquarie Island (54∘30′ S) were found to represent all aerosol species well. The southernmost latitudes differed significantly from both of these stations, and previous work suggests that Antarctic stations on the East Antarctic coastline do not represent the East Antarctic sea-ice latitudes well. Further measurements are needed to capture the long-term, seasonal and longitudinal variability in aerosol processes across the Southern Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Median bed-material sediment particle size across rivers in the contiguous US

Abstract. Bed-material sediment particle size data, particularly the median sediment particle size (D50), are critical for understanding and modeling riverine sediment transport. However, sediment particle size observations are primarily available at individual sites. Large-scale modeling and assessment of riverine sediment transport are limited by the lack of continuous regional maps of bed-material sediment particle size. We hence present a map of D50 over the contiguous US in a vector format that corresponds to approximately 2.7 million river segments (i.e., flowlines) in the National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus) dataset. We develop the map in four steps: (1) collect and process the observed D50 data from 2577 U.S. Geological Survey stations or U.S. Army Corps of Engineers sampling locations; (2) collocate these data with the NHDPlus flowlines based on their geographic locations, resulting in 1691 flowlines with collocated D50 values; (3) develop a predictive model using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) machine learning method based on the observed D50 data and the corresponding climate, hydrology, geology, and other attributes retrieved from the NHDPlus dataset; and (4) estimate the D50 values for flowlines without observations using the XGBoost predictive model. We expect this map to be useful for various purposes, such as research in large-scale river sediment transport using model- and data-driven approaches, teaching environmental and earth system sciences, planning and managing floodplain zones, etc. The map is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4921987 (Li et al., 2021a).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Technical note: Modeling spatial fields of extreme precipitation – a hierarchical Bayesian approach

Abstract. We introduce a hierarchical Bayesian model for the spatial distribution of rainfall corresponding to an extreme event of a specified duration that could be used with regional hydrologic models to perform a regional hydrologic risk analysis. An extreme event is defined if any gaging site in the watershed experiences an annual maximum rainfall event and the spatial field of rainfall at all sites corresponding to that occurrence is modeled. Applications to data from New York City demonstrate the effectiveness of the model for providing spatial scenarios that could be used for simulating loadings into the urban drainage system. Insights as to the homogeneity in spatial rainfall and its implications for modeling are provided by considering partial pooling in the hierarchical Bayesian framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sea ice breakup and freeze-up indicators for users of the Arctic coastal environment

Abstract. The timing of sea ice retreat and advance in Arctic coastal waters varies substantially from year to year. Various activities, ranging from marine transport to the use of sea ice as a platform for industrial activity or winter travel, are affected by variations in the timing of breakup and freeze-up, resulting in a need for indicators to document the regional and temporal variations in coastal areas. The primary objective of this study is to use locally based metrics to construct indicators of breakup and freeze-up in the Arctic and subarctic coastal environment. The indicators developed here are based on daily sea ice concentrations derived from satellite passive-microwave measurements. The “day of year” indicators are designed to optimize value for users while building on past studies characterizing breakup and freeze-up dates in the open pack ice. Relative to indicators for broader adjacent seas, the coastal indicators generally show later breakup at sites known to have landfast ice. The coastal indicators also show earlier freeze-up at some sites in comparison with freeze-up for broader offshore regions, likely tied to earlier freezing of shallow-water regions and areas affected by freshwater input from nearby streams and rivers. A factor analysis performed to synthesize the local indicator variations shows that the local breakup and freeze-up indicators have greater spatial variability than corresponding metrics based on regional ice coverage. However, the trends towards earlier breakup and later freeze-up are unmistakable over the post-1979 period in the synthesized metrics of coastal breakup and freeze-up and the corresponding regional ice coverage. The findings imply that locally defined indicators can serve as key links between pan-Arctic or global indicators such as sea ice extent or volume and local uses of sea ice, with the potential to inform community-scale adaptation and response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗