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DOE OSTI2023

Editorial: Edge computation and digital distribution networks

The development of digital technologies is penetrating all areas of energy revolution. Based on the in-depth integration of advanced digital technologies, distribution networks are gradually transforming into digital distribution networks (DDNs) with tremendous changes from the structure to the operation mode. DDNs is the digitalized appearance of the physical distribution network, in which ubiquitous connections and massive data are the basic characteristics (Huo et al., 2022). It is an important task to utilize the massive data and propose novel operation modes to construct more efficient and intelligent distribution networks (Jian et al., 2022). Among the advanced digital technologies in DDNs, edge computing has received wide attention (Zhao et al., 2022). It has superior performance in local sensing and intelligent computation, which can effectively relieve huge communication pressure. However, the limited computing resources and the complex computing tasks at the edge side significantly challenge the collaboration of distribution network regulation and advanced digital technologies (Hu et al., 2022). It is necessary to find out proper methods to utilize advanced digital technology to construct DDNs. This Research Topic is organized to introduce the recent progress in the construction, operation and advanced computational methods for DDNs. Finally, seven papers have been accepted, which can be sorted into the following three categories: 1) Evolution and technical features of DDNs, 2) Intelligent operation control of DDNs, 3) Advanced simulation for large-scale DDNs. The three sections below respectively introduce the major research and contributions of the papers covered in each category.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2016

Development of Real-Time Quantitative Safety Evaluation Method for Nuclear Power Plants

Human operators involved with large process control systems such as nuclear power plants (NPPs) perform significant roles in the operation of systems. In this reason, deficiencies in human factors such as poor HSI (Human System Interface) design, procedure, and training, are significant contributing factors to NPPs incidents and accidents. In this regard, many kinds of studies including human reliability analysis (HRA), operation support system, automation, have been conducted in order to reduce human errors. Among these fields of studies, automation has its own specialty since it mainly focuses on eliminating the human error-inducing tasks to reduce human error, while other topics are primarily focusing on reducing human error by aiding human operators during operation. It is commonly believed that replacing human operators to the automated system would guarantee greater efficiency, lower workloads, and fewer human errors. However, these beliefs are not always true in large and complex systems such as NPP, since excessive automation can generate new roles for human operators, change human operators' activities in unexpected ways, and inducing 'out-of-the-loop' (OOTL) problem. Especially, although human error probability drastically increases during abnormal situations in NPP due to overload of information, high workload, and short time available for diagnosis, automation is not actively adopted since conventional machine learning techniques are neither capable nor reliable to handle overwhelmingly complex abnormal situations in NPP. Recently, newly developed 'deep learning' techniques have been actively applied to many fields, and some of these studies proved that the artificial intelligences (AI) based on deep learning techniques show better performance than that of human being. In 2015, deep Q-network (DQN) which is one of the deep learning techniques was developed and applied to train AI that automatically plays various Atari 2800 games, and this AI surpassed the human-level playing in many kind of games. Also in 2016, 'AlphaGo', which was developed by 'Google Deepmind' based on deep learning technique to play the game of Go, was defeated Se-dol Lee who is the World Go champion with score of 4:1. In the point of view that the game of Go is considered as one of the challenging area in machine learning field, it is verified that these new machine learning techniques can perform well, even better than the human being in high-complexity tasks. Previously, most of AI applications in nuclear field were focusing on supporting human operators' tasks such as diagnosis and decision making by rapid classification and prediction, based on fixed training data sets. However, it is expected that AI can be applied to solve more complicated problems (i.e. automation during abnormal states in NPP) by adopting advanced machine learning methodologies. In order to apply the automation system in NPP, firstly it is needed to evaluate the status of the plant quantitatively in real-time, since the information about which state is better (i.e. safe) or worse (i.e. unsafe) is essential for training properly working automation AI. Currently, there are several methodologies for NPP safety evaluation such as probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), safety performance indicator (SPI). However, existing methodologies are not feasible for development of automated system since they are not capable for the cases which are not included in the underlying model, not able to consider delicate changes in the NPP, and hard to evaluate in real-time. Therefore, development of new NPP safety evaluation methodology which can cover previously mentioned requirements is needed to conduct the study on NPP automation further. In this study, the concept of early warning score (EWS) in medical field was adopted to develop the methodology which can evaluate the safety level of the NPP quantitatively and in real-time. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2013

RECOVERY ACT - Robust Optimization for Connectivity and Flows in Dynamic Complex Networks

The goal of this project was to study robust connectivity and flow patterns of complex multi-scale systems modeled as networks. Networks provide effective ways to study global, system level properties, as well as local, multi-scale interactions at a component level. Numerous applications from power systems, telecommunication, transportation, biology, social science, and other areas have benefited from novel network-based models and their analysis. Modeling and optimization techniques that employ appropriate measures of risk for identifying robust clusters and resilient network designs in networks subject to uncertain failures were investigated in this collaborative multi-university project. In many practical situations one has to deal with uncertainties associated with possible failures of network components, thereby affecting the overall efficiency and performance of the system (e.g., every node/connection has a probability of partial or complete failure). Some extreme examples include power grid component failures, airline hub failures due to weather, or freeway closures due to emergencies. These are also situations in which people, materials, or other resources need to be managed efficiently. Important practical examples include rerouting flow through power grids, adjusting flight plans, and identifying routes for emergency services and supplies, in the event network elements fail unexpectedly. Solutions that are robust under uncertainty, in addition to being economically efficient, are needed. This project has led to the development of novel models and methodologies that can tackle the optimization problems arising in such situations. A number of new concepts, which have not been previously applied in this setting, were investigated in the framework of the project. The results can potentially help decision-makers to better control and identify robust or risk-averse decisions in such situations. Formulations and optimal solutions of the considered problems need to capture uncertainty and risk using appropriate probabilistic, statistical and optimization concepts. The main difficulty arising in addressing these issues is the dramatic increase in the computational complexity of the resulting optimization problems. This project studied novel models and methodologies for risk-averse network optimization- specifically, network design, network flows and cluster detection problems under uncertainty. The approach taken was to incorporate a quantitative risk measure known as conditional value-at-risk that is widely used in financial applications. This approach presents a viable alternate modeling and optimization framework to chance-constrained optimization and mean-variance optimization, one that also facilitates the detection of risk-averse solutions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

An algorithm for physics informed scan path optimization in additive manufacturing

Site specific microstructure control is a critical research area within the field of additive manufacturing due to its potential to revolutionize part performance. One way to achieve site specific microstructure control is through control of the solidification conditions via the construction of intricate scan paths; however, the search space for such a problem is large. Previous attempts only considered the solidification conditions at the top surface while also requiring either lots of manual-fine tuning or large amounts of computational resources. This paper introduces a general method for scan path optimization which considers the solidification conditions in the bulk of the material without an increase in computational expense. This method consists of three core components:1. A heat transfer model for simulating the temperature field at a given time.2. A surrogate model which takes scan pattern information and temperature data and predicts the solidification conditions of the bulk as well as the meltpool depths for a spot melt.3. A decision algorithm to decide which spot melt should be printed next based on the outputs of the surrogate model.Each of these components can be changed without changing the overall method. Within this work, this method is applied in the creation of an algorithm containing a semi-analytic heat transfer model to simulate the temperature field, a fully convolutional neural network (FCNN) as the surrogate model, and a greedy decision algorithm. The resulting algorithm produced complex scan patterns which gave strong results for simulated microstructure control.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2005

Evidence of Urban-Induced Precipitation Variability in Arid Climate Regimes

Water is essential to life in the Earth system. The water cycle components that sustain life are becoming more scarce and polluted. The most recent (1999-2004) drought experienced in the southwestern United States is the seventh worst in the approximately 500-year proxy tree-ring record. As a result, many regions contemplated drought emergencies in which severe water restrictions are implemented. Though larger weather and climate processes likely control drought processes, there is increasing evidence that anthropogenic or human-related activities can significantly alter precipitation processes. Urbanization is an example of anthropogenic forcing. Recent studies continue to provide evidence that urban environments can modify or induce precipitation under a specific set of conditions. Arid and semi-arid regions of the southwestern United States and other parts of the world are rapidly developing and placing greater demands on the environmental system. In the past fifty years, Phoenix has expanded from a predominantly agricultural center to an urbanized region with extent 700 percent larger than its size in the middle of the twentieth century. Riyadh's population grew from about a half million people in 1972 to almost two million by 2000. Saudi Arabia experienced urbanization later than many other countries; in the early 1970s its urban-rural ratio was still about 1:3. By 1990 the ratio had reversed to about 3:l. In the mid-1970s Riyadh's population was increasing by about 10 percent a year. Irrigation also significantly increased between 1972 and 1990 southeast of Riyadh. The study employs a 108-year precipitation historical data record, global climate observing network observations and satellite data to identify possible anomalies in rainfall in and around two major arid urban areas, Phoenix, Arizona and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. It provides statistically sound evidence that rainfall distribution and magnitude is statistically different in post-urban than in pre-urban (1900-1950) Phoenix. The study hypothesis that a complex interaction between the city landscape, irrigated lands, and nearby mountains have created preferred regions for rainfall development. The study also provides early evidence that rapidly urbanizing parts of the arid Middle East may also be experiencing different precipitation regimes in response to urbanization and irrigation.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗
NASA NTRS2004

Data Relay Board with Protocol for High-Speed, Free-Space Optical Communications

In a free-space optical communication system, the mitigation of transient outages through the incorporation of error-control methods is of particular concern, the outages being caused by scintillation fades and obscurants. The focus of this innovative technology is the development of a data relay system for a reliable high-data-rate free-spacebased optical-transport network. The data relay boards will establish the link, maintain synchronous connection, group the data into frames, and provide for automatic retransmission (ARQ) of lost or erred frames. A certain Quality of Service (QoS) can then be ensured, compatible with the required data rate. The protocol to be used by the data relay system is based on the draft CCSDS standard data-link protocol Proximity-1, selected by orbiters to multiple lander assets in the Mars network, for example. In addition to providing data-link protocol capabilities for the free-space optical link and buffering the data, the data relay system will interface directly with user applications over Gigabit Ethernet and/or with highspeed storage resources via Fibre Channel. The hardware implementation is built on a network-processor-based architecture. This technology combines the power of a hardware switch capable of data switching and packet routing at Gbps rates, with the flexibility of a software- driven processor that can host highly adaptive and reconfigurable protocols used, for example, in wireless local-area networks (LANs). The system will be implemented in a modular multi-board fashion. The main hardware elements of the data relay system are the new data relay board developed by Rockwell Scientific, a COTS Gigabit Ethernet board for user interface, and a COTS Fibre Channel board that connects to local storage. The boards reside in a cPCI back plane, and can be housed in a VME-type enclosure.

Wright, Malcolm↗
DOE OSTI2017

High Fidelity, “Faster than Real-Time” Simulator for Predicting Power System Dynamic Behavior - Final Technical Report

The “High Fidelity, Faster than Real­Time Simulator for Predicting Power System Dynamic Behavior” was designed and developed by Illinois Institute of Technology with critical contributions from Electrocon International, Argonne National Laboratory, Alstom Grid and McCoy Energy. Also essential to the project were our two utility partners: Commonwealth Edison and AltaLink. The project was a success due to several major breakthroughs in the area of large­scale power system dynamics simulation, including (1) a validated faster than real­ time simulation of both stable and unstable transient dynamics in a large­scale positive sequence transmission grid model, (2) a three­phase unbalanced simulation platform for modeling new grid devices, such as independently controlled single­phase static var compensators (SVCs), (3) the world’s first high fidelity three­phase unbalanced dynamics and protection simulator based on Electrocon’s CAPE program, and (4) a first­of­its­ kind implementation of a single­phase induction motor model with stall capability. The simulator results will aid power grid operators in their true time of need, when there is a significant risk of cascading outages. The simulator will accelerate performance and enhance accuracy of dynamics simulations, enabling operators to maintain reliability and steer clear of blackouts. In the long­term, the simulator will form the backbone of the newly conceived hybrid real­time protection and control architecture that will coordinate local controls, wide­area measurements, wide­area controls and advanced real­time prediction capabilities. The nation’s citizens will benefit in several ways, including (1) less down time from power outages due to the faster­than­real­time simulator’s predictive capability, (2) higher levels of reliability due to the detailed dynamics plus protection simulation capability, and (3) more resiliency due to the three­ phase unbalanced simulator’s ability to model three­phase and single­ phase networks and devices.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2007

An Array of Optical Receivers for Deep-Space Communications

An array of small optical receivers is proposed as an alternative to a single large optical receiver for high-data-rate communications in NASA s Deep Space Network (DSN). Because the telescope for a single receiver capable of satisfying DSN requirements must be greater than 10 m in diameter, the design, building, and testing of the telescope would be very difficult and expensive. The proposed array would utilize commercially available telescopes of 1-m or smaller diameter and, therefore, could be developed and verified with considerably less difficulty and expense. The essential difference between a single-aperture optical-communications receiver and an optical-array receiver is that a single-aperture receiver focuses all of the light energy it collects onto the surface of an optical detector, whereas an array receiver focuses portions of the total collected energy onto separate detectors, optically detects each fractional energy component, then combines the electrical signal from the array of detector outputs to form the observable, or "decision statistic," used to decode the transmitted data. A conceptual block diagram identifying the key components of the optical-array receiver suitable for deep-space telemetry reception is shown in the figure. The most conspicuous feature of the receiver is the large number of small- to medium-size telescopes, with individual apertures and number of telescopes selected to make up the desired total collecting area. This array of telescopes is envisioned to be fully computer- controlled via the user interface and prediction-driven to achieve rough pointing and tracking of the desired spacecraft. Fine-pointing and tracking functions then take over to keep each telescope pointed toward the source, despite imperfect pointing predictions, telescope-drive errors, and vibration caused by wind.

Vilnrotter, Chi-Wung↗
DOE OSTI2014

Functional approach to exploring climatic and landscape controls on runoff generation: 2 Timing of runoff storm response

Abstract Hortonian overland flow, Dunne overland flow, and subsurface stormflow are the three most dominant mechanisms contributing to both the volume and timing of streamflow in headwater catchments. In this paper, guided by the Dunne diagram, we explore the impacts of climate, soil, and topography on estimated probability distributions of the travel times of each of these three runoff components. In each case, these are expressed in terms of the Connected Instantaneous Response Functions (CIRF) and account for the dynamics of their individual partial effective contributing areas that retain the connectivity to the outlet (instead of the whole catchment area). A spatially distributed hydrological model is used to derive the CIRFs numerically under multiple combinations of climate, soil, and topographic properties. The mean travel times and dimensionless forms of the CIRFs (i.e., scaled by their respective mean travel times) are used to examine both advective and dispersive aspects of catchment's runoff routing response. It is found that the CIRFs, upon nondimensionalization, collapsed to common characteristic shapes, which could be explained in terms of the relative contributions of hillslope and channel network flows, and the size of runoff contributing areas. The contributing areas, particularly for the Dunne overland flow, are themselves found to be governed by the competition between drainage of and recharge to the water table, and could be explained by a dimensionless drainage index which quantifies this competition. The study also reveals simple indicators based on landscape properties that can explain the magnitude of travel times in different catchments.

Li, Hong‐Yi↗
DOE OSTI2018

Self-Supported Hydrous Iridium–Nickel Oxide Two-Dimensional Nanoframes for High Activity Oxygen Evolution Electrocatalysts

Oxygen evolution reaction (OER) electrocatalysts with high activity, high stability, and low costs are needed for proton-exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers. Based on the high cost and limited supply of iridium, approaches that result in iridium-based OER catalysts with increased catalytic activity are of significant interest. Here, we report a carbon-free, self-supported hydrous iridium-nickel oxide two-dimensional nanoframe structure synthesized by thermal treatment of iridium-decorated nickel oxide nanosheets under reducing conditions and subsequent chemical leaching in acid. The catalyst nanoarchitecture contains an interconnected network of metallic iridium-nickel alloy domains with hydrous iridium oxide and nickel oxide located in the surface region. The electrochemical oxidation step maintains the three-dimensional nanoarchitecture and results in a thin (~5 A) oxide/hydroxide surface layer. The temperature used for thermal reduction was found to strongly affect the catalyst surface structure and OER activity. Utilizing a lower thermal reduction temperature of 200 degrees C was determined to provide a higher relative surface concentration of hydroxides and nickel oxide and result in higher OER activities compared with materials treated at 300 degrees C. The 200 degrees C-treated hydrous iridium-nickel oxide electrocatalyst showed 15 times higher initial OER mass activity than commercial IrO 2 , and the activity remained 10 times higher than IrO 2 after accelerated durability testing. Density functional theory (DFT) calculations and analysis of the experimental Tafel slopes support that the second electron transfer step is the rate-limiting step for the reaction. The DFT calculations demonstrate that Ni substitution on the IrO 2 surface lowers the activation energy for adsorbed intermediates of the second electron transfer step of the OER reaction. This work establishes that noble metal-decorated metal oxide nanosheets can be transformed into high surface area, carbon-free electrocatalyst nanostructures with high catalytic activities and molecular accessibility and reveals the importance of using controlled thermal reduction temperatures to alter the surface structure and OER activity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Gray-Box Approach for Thermal Modelling of Buildings for Applications in District Heating and Cooling Networks

District-heating-and-cooling (DHC) systems are a proven energy solution that has been deployed for many years in a growing number of urban areas worldwide. They comprise a variety of technologies that seek to develop synergies between the production and supply of heat, cooling, domestic hot water and electricity. Although the benefits of DHC systems are significant and have been widely acclaimed, yet the full potential of modern DHC systems remains largely untapped. There are several opportunities for development of energy efficient DHC systems, which will enable the effective exploitation of alternative renewable resources, waste heat recovery, etc., in order to increase the overall efficiency and facilitate the transition towards the next generation of DHC systems. This motivated the need for modelling these complex systems. Large-scale modelling of DHC-networks is challenging, as it has several components such as buildings, pipes, valves, heating source, etc., interacting with each other. In this paper, we focus on building modelling. In particular, we present a gray-box methodology for thermal modelling of buildings. Gray-box modelling is a hybrid of data driven and physics based models where, coefficients of the equations from physics based models are learned using data. This approach allows us to capture the dynamics of the buildings more effectively as compared to pure data driven approach. Additionally, this approach results in a simpler models as compared to pure physics based models. We first develop the individual components of the building such as temperature evolution, flow controller, etc. These individual models are then integrated in to the complete gray-box model for the building. The model is validated using data collected from one of the buildings at Lule{\aa}, a city on the coast of northern Sweden.

Saurav, Kumar↗
DOE OSTI2026

Phoenix Dust Storm (PHX-DUST) Scale: A Cooperatively Developed Dust Storm Scale for Phoenix, Arizona

Using extensive localized meteorological and air quality data for central Arizona from 2010 to 2023, we create a postevent dust storm scale for use by the primary stakeholders in central Arizona for the Phoenix metropolitan area called the Phoenix Dust Storm (PHX-DUST) scale. To ensure usability across a wide spectrum of users, a core concept was to “keep it simple.” The PHX-DUST scale is based on (i) maximum dust concentration for particulate matter (PM10) across the network in micrograms per cubic meter which determines category, e.g., “category 5 (the highest observed category)” and category 4; (ii) the number of network monitors achieving dust concentrations above a threshold of 500 μg m−3 (categorized as “widespread” or “isolated,” as measures of spatial extent); (iii) a duration parameter (which determines “long duration” or “short duration”); and (iv) a measure of wind speed over the affected area (maximum wind gust recorded over the network, which may not be the maximum wind of the storm). Using this index for the 189 dust storms impacting the Phoenix metropolitan area for the period 2010–23, the most severe dust storm occurred on 5 July 2011 and is classified as a “Category 5, Widespread, Long-Duration High-Gust” event. This initial attempt at defining the PHX-DUST scale holds valuable applications for research, education, and applied analyses. It demonstrates that a consortium of interested groups can effectively work to create products benefiting the weather community and general public. Here, the PHX-DUST scale can also serve as a foundational framework for application in other regions where dust storms pose a threat to the well-being of populations, infrastructure, and ecosystems.

Atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2023

Final Report DE-FE0031785 Mohsen Ahmadian, Ph.D. Demonstration of Proof of Concept of a Multiphysics Approach for Real-Time Remote Monitoring of Dynamic Changes in Pressure and Salinity in Hydraulically Fractured Networks

Hydraulic fracturing has evolved into a multistep process with varying flow rates, carrier fluids (e.g., gel or slickwater), proppant loadings, and proppant grain sizes. As a result, primary recovery from a hydraulically fractured tight-oil reservoir is often a tiny fraction of the original oil in place, ranging between 5 and 10%. As stated in the FOA1990, “part of this problem is due to the inability of current well completion processes to effectively stimulate the entire reservoir volume in contact with the wellbore. Innovative technologies are needed that can help improve the effectiveness of reservoir completion methods, maximize stimulated reservoir volumes, and optimize recovery over the entire producing life span of a well”. We first need to enhance the current fracture diagnostic techniques to improve a well-completion design. However, detecting and delineating a subsurface hydraulic fracture is extremely difficult because the induced fracture network is only fractionally propped, and these propped fractures are generally very thin. Microseismic and tiltmeter monitoring techniques can provide information on the fracture extent but provide little or no information on the movement and final distribution of proppant or production fluids. On the other hand, electromagnetic (EM) imaging has shown the capability to monitor proppant distribution throughout the fracture area, especially in the presence of Electrically Active Proppants (EAPs). A previous EM survey of hydraulic fracturing at the Devine Fracture Pilot Site (DFPS) and subsequent EM code developments demonstrated this survey as a robust technique to remotely interrogate the extent of the EAP-filled hydraulic fracture during its propagation. The objectives of the project were threefold: (1) to capitalize on the material properties of an EAP to demonstrate remote monitoring of relative changes in pressure, pressure, and flow that are commonly encountered during production from a hydraulically fractured reservoir; (2) to evaluate EM imaging tools, to achieve Objective 1 in near real-time; and (3) to develop a multi-physics joint inversion approach to precisely predict flow patterns and physiochemical changes within an EAP-filled fracture network. This research project was built upon our previous work at the Devine Test Site managed by the Bureau of Economic Geology (BEG) at The University of Texas at Austin (UT-Austin). It also leveraged a significant investment from the Advanced Energy Consortium (AEC) to address the DOE's interest in subsurface flow, containment, and characterization by multiple signals. This three-year and three-month project succeeded in demonstrating the feasibility of a real-time dynamic fluid flow mapping technique at Technology Readiness Level 5 (TRL5) by utilizing a commercially available surface-based Controlled-Source Electromagnetic (CSEM) method (Objectives 1, 2). We demonstrated that injections into an EAP-filled fracture could be successfully coupled with real-time electric field measurements on the surface, leading to remote monitoring of dynamic changes within the EAP-filled fracture. Furthermore, the observed electric field in our study is influenced by bottomhole pressure, flow rate, and salinity, which is demonstrated by comparing these parameters with the electrical field potentials. EM simulations solely based on assumptions of fracture conductivity changes during injection did not reproduce the whole measured electric field magnitudes. Preliminary estimates showed that including Streaming Potential (SP) in our geophysical model is likely needed to reduce the simulation misfit.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Research Directions on AI for Science, Energy, and Security: Report on Summer 2022 Workshops

Over the past decade, fundamental changes in artificial intelligence (AI)—from foundational to applied—have delivered dramatic insights across a wide breadth of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) mission space. AI is helping to augment and improve scientific and engineering workflows (e.g., for control, design, and dramatic performance gains through surrogate models) in national security, the Office of Science, and DOE’s applied energy programs. The progress and potential for AI in DOE science was captured in the 2020 “AI for Science” report from the DOE laboratory community in collaboration with academia and industry. Specific scientific areas ready to further leverage the power of AI ranged from the scale and performance of computational models to data analysis to creating new classes of observations using computer vision. Since that report, the scale and scope of scientific AI have accelerated, revealing new, emergent properties that yield insights that go beyond enabling opportunities to being potentially transformative in the way that scientific problems are posed and solved. Thus, under the guidance of both the Office of Science (SC) and the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), the DOE national laboratories organized a series of workshops in 2022 to gather input on new and rapidly emerging opportunities and challenges of scientific AI. This 2023 report is a synthesis of those workshops. The scientific community believes AI can have a foundational impact on a broad range of DOE missions, including science, energy, and national security. Further, DOE has unique capabilities that enable the community to drive progress in scientific use of AI, building on long-standing DOE strengths and investments in computation, data, and communications infrastructure, spanning the Energy Sciences Network (ESnet), the Exascale Computing Project (ECP), and integrative programs such as the NNSA Office of Defense Programs Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) and the SC Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) programs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Bayesian network ensemble as a multivariate strategy to predict radiation pneumonitis risk

Purpose: Prediction of radiation pneumonitis (RP) has been shown to be challenging due to the involvement of a variety of factors including dose–volume metrics and radiosensitivity biomarkers. Some of these factors are highly correlated and might affect prediction results when combined. Bayesian network (BN) provides a probabilistic framework to represent variable dependencies in a directed acyclic graph. The aim of this study is to integrate the BN framework and a systems’ biology approach to detect possible interactions among RP risk factors and exploit these relationships to enhance both the understanding and prediction of RP. Methods: The authors studied 54 nonsmall-cell lung cancer patients who received curative 3D-conformal radiotherapy. Nineteen RP events were observed (common toxicity criteria for adverse events grade 2 or higher). Serum concentration of the following four candidate biomarkers were measured at baseline and midtreatment: alpha-2-macroglobulin, angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE), transforming growth factor, interleukin-6. Dose-volumetric and clinical parameters were also included as covariates. Feature selection was performed using a Markov blanket approach based on the Koller–Sahami filter. The Markov chain Monte Carlo technique estimated the posterior distribution of BN graphs built from the observed data of the selected variables and causality constraints. RP probability was estimated using a limited number of high posterior graphs (ensemble) and was averaged for the final RP estimate using Bayes’ rule. A resampling method based on bootstrapping was applied to model training and validation in order to control under- and overfit pitfalls. Results: RP prediction power of the BN ensemble approach reached its optimum at a size of 200. The optimized performance of the BN model recorded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.83, which was significantly higher than multivariate logistic regression (0.77), mean heart dose (0.69), and a pre-to-midtreatment change in ACE (0.66). When RP prediction was made only with pretreatment information, the AUC ranged from 0.76 to 0.81 depending on the ensemble size. Bootstrap validation of graph features in the ensemble quantified confidence of association between variables in the graphs where ten interactions were statistically significant. Conclusions: The presented BN methodology provides the flexibility to model hierarchical interactions between RP covariates, which is applied to probabilistic inference on RP. The authors’ preliminary results demonstrate that such framework combined with an ensemble method can possibly improve prediction of RP under real-life clinical circumstances such as missing data or treatment plan adaptation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Wireless Sensor Network for Improving the Energy Efficiency of Data Centers

Data centers occupy less than 2% of the federally owned portfolio under the jurisdiction, custody or control of the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA), but represent nearly 5% of the agency’s overall energy budget. Assuming that energy use in GSA’s data centers tracks with industry averages, GSA can anticipate that data center energy use will grow at an annual rate of 15%, a doubling of energy use every five years.1 In fact, energy is the single largest operating expense for most data centers. Improving the energy performance of data center systems supports progress toward meeting federally mandated greenhouse gas emission-­reduction goals, while reducing operating and energy costs and allowing for greater flexibility in future expansion by eliminating the need to provide additional power and cooling. Studies sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have shown that energy use can be reduced by 25% through implementation of best practices and commercially available technologies. The present study evaluated the effectiveness of a strategy to cost- effectively improve the efficiency of data center cooling, which is the single largest non-­IT load. The technology that was evaluated consists of a network of wireless sensors—including branch circuit power monitors, temperature sensors, humidity sensors, and pressure sensors, along with an integrated software product to help analyze the collected data. The technology itself does not save energy; however, its information collection and analysis features enable users to understand operating conditions and identify problem areas. In addition, data obtained by this technology can be input into assessment tools that can identify additional best practice measures. Energy savings result from the implementation of the best practices. The study was conducted to validate the premise that providing data center operators with detailed, real- time measurement of environmental parameters and power consumption enables them to establish baseline performance, discover areas of sub-optimal performance, and identify concrete opportunities for improvement.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2018

Annual Closure Monitoring Report for Corrective Action Unit 98, Frenchman Flat, Underground Test Area, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada: (CY2017 January 2017–December 2017, Rev. 0)

Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 98: Frenchman Flat on the Nevada National Security Site was the location of 10 underground nuclear tests. CAU 98 underwent a series of investigations and actions in accordance with the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order to assess contamination of groundwater by radionuclides from the tests. A Closure Report completed that process in 2016 and called for long-term monitoring, use restrictions (URs), and institutional controls to protect the public and environment from potential exposure to contaminated groundwater. Three types of monitoring are performed for CAU 98: water quality, water level, and institutional control. These are monitored to determine whether the URs remain protective of human health and the environment, and to ensure that the regulatory boundary objectives are being met. Monitoring data will be used in the future, once multiple years of data are available, to evaluate consistency with the groundwater flow and contaminant transport models because the contaminant boundaries calculated with the models are the primary basis of the UR boundaries. Six wells were sampled for water-quality monitoring in 2017. Contaminants of concern were detected only in the two source/plume wells already known to contain contamination as a result of a radionuclide migration experiment. The 86,000-picocuries-per-liter (pCi/L) tritium concentration in one of the wells is about 12 percent higher than measured in 2016 but is over an order of magnitude less than the peak value measured in the well in 1980. The concentration in the other source/plume well is lower than measured in 2016. The water-level monitoring network includes 16 wells. Depth to water measured in 2017 is generally consistent with recent measurements for most wells. Water-level declines differing from long-term trends were observed in four wells. Three of these (WW-4, WW-4A, and WW-5B) are water-supply wells that experienced increases in pumping during the year. No definitive cause for the sharp decline in the fourth well (ER-5-3-2) in 2016 is known as yet. Institutional control monitoring confirmed the URs are recorded in U.S. Department of Energy and U.S. Air Force land management systems, and that no activities within Frenchman Flat basin are occurring that could potentially affect the contaminant boundaries. Survey of groundwater resources in basins surrounding Frenchman Flat similarly identify no current or pending development that would indicate the need to increase monitoring activities or would otherwise cause concern for the closure decision. The URs continue to prevent exposure of the public, workers, and the environment to contaminants of concern by preventing use of potentially contaminated groundwater.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗