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Sensitivity analysis applied to SiC failure probability in TRISO modeled with BISON

Here, a sensitivity analysis on the failure probability of the Silicon Carbide (SiC) layer in tristructural isotropic (TRISO) nuclear fuel during transient conditions predicted by the BISON fuel performance code is performed. The principal goal of the analysis is to understand the most important parameters dictating SiC failure behavior in BISON during Reactivity Initiated Accidents (RIAs). SiC brittle fracture probability is modeled using Weibull statistics. A total of seven inputs related to SiC failure has been selected for the analysis, including the Weibull statistics parameters, elastic moduli for SiC and Pyrolitic Carbon (PyC) and SiC stress-free temperature. A 1D TRISO BISON model has been established for various reactivity insertions performed at the Nuclear Safety Research Reactor (NSRR). The principal advantage associated with the 1D TRISO model developed in this work is its computational efficiency. The Sobol variance decomposition method is used, and the sensitivity indices are presented for eight different values of the energy deposition. The results show that the two most important parameters impacting the predicted SiC failure probability are the Weibull modulus and the characteristic stress, and a co-variance amongst these parameters is obtained for low reactivity insertions. An additional new finding of this work is that the relative importance of Weibull parameters depends on the energy deposition, and thus reactivity, regime. For low energy depositions, two parameters are of influence on SiC failure probability, while for high energy depositions only one parameter impacts failure probability results. Moreover, optimization of the Weibull modulus and characteristic stress is performed by minimizing the RMSE between BISON failure probability predictions and experimental failure fractions for each energy deposition. This work also demonstrates the validity of the NSRR tests BISON simulations and of the respective sensitivity analysis results as conservative, yet indicative for slower transients characterized by lower deposited energies. Such verification is achieved through the partial extension of the analysis to a group Control Rod Withdrawal reproduced from a previous study. Another novel result of this analysis is that no single set of Weibull parameters can reproduce all reactivity insertion experimental failure results, which is related to the intrinsic nature of SiC failure properties, and a new range for the parameters is proposed to produce a failure probability envelope that encompasses the experimental fractions. Additionaly, this work proposes a new approach for future failure analysis with BISON, consisting in the use of Weibull parameters ranges, rather than fixed sets, along with failure envelopes generation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Comparison between beamforming and super resolution imaging algorithms for non-destructive evaluation

In this paper the performance of total focusing method is compared with the widely used time-reversal MUSIC super resolution technique. The algorithms are tested with simulated and experimental ultrasonic array data, each containing different noise levels. The simulated time domain signals allow the effects of array geometry, frequency, scatterer location, scatterer size, scatterer separation and random noise to be carefully controlled. The performance of the imaging algorithms is evaluated in terms of resolution and sensitivity to random noise. It is shown that for the low noise situation, time-reversal MUSIC provides enhanced lateral resolution when compared to the total focusing method. However, for higher noise levels, the total focusing method shows robustness, whilst the performance of time-reversal MUSIC is significantly degraded.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Identifying rolling resistance and air resistance simultaneously for an electric truck

Accurately estimating rolling and air resistance is essential for predicting the energy consumption of vehicles. This study presents a field-based approach using a rolldown test to simultaneously determine rolling and air resistance coefficients. Unlike prior methods that frequently used simulations or models, we employ a goal programming methodology to improve precision and evaluate the actual vehicle and environmental conditions. Our methodology was tested using a Class 8 Freightliner eCascadia on a surveyed road section, ensuring controlled conditions for data collection. By analyzing the time–velocity relationship across multiple test runs, we derived resistance coefficients for both loaded and unloaded conditions. The study confirms that rolling resistance is largely independent of velocity at low speeds but exhibits a nonlinear dependency at higher speeds. Additionally, road surface conditions, tire condition, axle configuration, aerodynamic properties, and weather conditions significantly impact resistance values, emphasizing the need for real-world testing rather than relying solely on standardized projections. Our results align with existing literature while demonstrating the efficacy of the goal programming approach in refining resistance estimates. This work contributes to improved vehicle energy modeling, offering practical insights for fleet operators and policymakers seeking accurate energy consumption predictions for electric trucks operating under varying environmental conditions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

IEA Wind Task 32: Best Practices for the Certification of Lidar-Assisted Control Applications

Lidar-assisted control is a promising technology for reducing structural loads on wind turbines. Guidelines for certifying wind turbines with this technology are important for its widespread adoption. As a first step, an IEA Wind Task 32 workshop was held, bringing together wind turbine manufacturers, lidar suppliers, certifiers, consultants, and researchers to identify barriers to certification with lidar-assisted control and ideas for mitigating the barriers. Here this paper builds on the outcome of the workshop by providing an analysis of the areas affected and the remaining challenges. Further, initial best practices are given to address the challenges, covering the lidar system, control and protection systems, design loads, and type testing.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Study of impacts of two types of cellular aging on the yeast bud morphogenesis

Understanding the mechanisms of the cellular aging processes is crucial for attempting to extend organismal lifespan and for studying age-related degenerative diseases. Yeast cells divide through budding, providing a classical biological model for studying cellular aging. With their powerful genetics, relatively short cell cycle, and well-established signaling pathways also found in animals, yeast cells offer valuable insights into the aging process. Recent experiments suggested the existence of two aging modes in yeast characterized by nucleolar and mitochondrial declines, respectively. By analyzing experimental data, this study shows that cells evolving into those two aging modes behave differently when they are young. While buds grow linearly in both modes, cells that consistently generate spherical buds throughout their lifespan demonstrate greater efficacy in controlling bud size and growth rate at young ages. A three-dimensional multiscale chemical-mechanical model was developed and used to suggest and test hypothesized impacts of aging on bud morphogenesis. Experimentally calibrated model simulations showed that during the early stage of budding, tubular bud shape in one aging mode could be generated by locally inserting new materials at the bud tip, a process guided by the polarized Cdc42 signal. Furthermore, the aspect ratio of the tubular bud could be stabilized during the late stage as observed in experiments in this work. The model simulation results suggest that the localization of new cell surface material insertion, regulated by chemical signal polarization, could be weakened due to cellular aging in yeast and other cell types, leading to the change and stabilization of the bud aspect ratio.

Tsai, Kevin↗

Portable Industrial Control Systems Simulator (Final Report)

Industrial Control Systems (ICS) are more integrated than they have ever been before, but also the division between IT (Information Technology) and OT (Operational Technology) is becoming a grey area. As the integration of IT and OT occurs more often, cyber attack will also increase. Cyber attacks on Critical Infrastructure can be highly detrimental to society, notably via compromised Industrial Control Systems (ICS). Virtual and physical simulation has been used in medical fields, mathematics, architecture, aeronautics, space, and many more. Virtualization & Simulation in a lab environment is ideal because there is a need for the ability to test theories and designs is a safe and cost-effective way without risking equipment damage or, more importantly, human life. Furthermore, OT and ICS are some of the most difficult systems to use for research and development. They are either committed to operations or widely expensive to set up in a life-like environment. Virtualization and simulation will allow these otherwise accessible systems to be a test bed for the training, development, and research of SRNL customers or engineers and scientists at SRNL. This will allow the testbed to fit into a small form factor and interact with a simulator with minimum hardware components for easy transports and replication effort within the environment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Heavy-Duty Vehicle Port Drayage Drive Cycle Characterization and Development

In an effort to better understand the operational requirements of port drayage vehicles and their potential for adoption of advanced technologies, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) researchers collected over 36,000 miles of in-use duty cycle data from 30 Class 8 drayage trucks operating at the Port of Long Beach and Port of Los Angeles in Southern California. These data include 1-Hz global positioning system location and SAE J1939 high-speed controller area network information. Researchers processed the data through NREL's Drive-Cycle Rapid Investigation, Visualization, and Evaluation tool to examine vehicle kinematic and dynamic patterns across the spectrum of operations. Using the k-medoids clustering method, a repeatable and quantitative process for multi-mode drive cycle segmentation, the analysis led to the creation of multiple drive cycles representing four distinct modes of operation that can be used independently or in combination. These drive cycles are statistically representative of real-world operation of port drayage vehicles. When combined with modeling and simulation tools, these representative test cycles allow advanced vehicle or systems developers to efficiently and accurately evaluate vehicle technology performance requirements to reduce cost and development time while ultimately leading to the commercialization of advanced technologies that meet the performance requirements of the port drayage vocation. The drive cycles, which are suitable for chassis dynamometer testing, were compared to several existing test cycles. This paper presents the clustering methodology, accompanying results of the port drayage duty cycle analysis and custom drive cycle creation.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

A Review of Quantum Computing Technologies in Power System Optimization

As modern power grids increasingly integrate variable renewable generation, distributed energy resources, and energy storage systems, classical optimization techniques are facing unprecedented challenges. This review examines the emerging application of quantum computing to overcome these challenges in power system optimization, including optimal power flow (OPF), unit commitment (UC), economic dispatch (ED), and intelligent switching and topology optimization (IS-TO). Recent research has introduced various quantum methodologies—such as gate-based, annealing-based, variational algorithms, and quantum-inspired algorithms—to address the combinatorial complexity inherent in grid reconfiguration and energy management. The review summaries the quantum algorithms, quantum devices and the power system test cases, highlighting hybrid quantum–classical strategies that leverage the complementary strengths of both paradigms. Some quantum advantages have been observed, including theoretical speedup, accurate simulation results, scalable qubit usage, efficient QUBO mapping. In particular, the review emphasizes the importance of integrating quantum optimization techniques with classical control frameworks, these hybrid approaches demonstrate the potential to improve real-time grid management and operational reliability. A significant portion of the analysis is devoted to the practical limitations of current quantum devices. Present-day quantum hardware, operating in the noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) era, remains highly sensitive to noise and limited in qubit connectivity, which constrains the scale and accuracy of implemented algorithms. The review delves into specific challenges such as the need for qubit-efficient encoding techniques and error mitigation strategies that are critical for handling real-world grid optimization problems. In addition, the work draws attention to the performance discrepancies between theoretical quantum speedups and experimental validations, underscoring the importance of rigorous benchmark studies using representative power grid test cases. In summary, this review highlights both the promise and limitations of quantum computing for power system optimization. It provides a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art technologies, categorizes recent advancements in algorithm design, and discusses practical considerations for implementation, and serves as an informative resource on current research. Future research directions include developing robust hybrid frameworks, advancing qubit-efficient formulations, and scaling up experimental demonstrations to confirm the theoretical advantages of quantum methods in large-scale power system operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Electrically-Assisted Tubing Processes for Enhancing Manufacturability of Oxide Dispersion Strengthened Structural Materials for Nuclear Reactor Applications

The overall goal of this project is to enhance the formability of Nanostructured Ferritic Alloys (NFAs) such that high-strength thin-walled claddings can be successfully and economically manufactured for use in future nuclear reactors. Specifically, four objectives were identified: Objective #1 – to achieve a good understanding of the mechanical behavior and resulting microstructure of 14YWT made from the powder form subjected to various Electrically- Assisted (EA) loading conditions. Objective #2 – to conduct EA-flat rolling of 14YWT completed and the prioritization/selection of two alternative designs of EA tube rolling processes. Objective #3 – to design and assemble a new EA tube rolling machine. Objective #4 – to conduct rolling using the new EA rolling machine. The above objectives were achieved and the findings can be further applied to establish other innovative fabrication processes. Specifically, the major accomplishments are summarized as: The use of an EA forming process was investigated to reduce the forming force of ODS ferritic steels. The effect of a continuous electric current on 14YWT during plastic deformation was evaluated. EA uniaxial tension tests show that the electric current is able to reduce the flow stress of 14YWT. 14YWT exhibits a ductility minimum at a current density of 34.5 A/mm2 which is consistent with fractography results. Hardness measurements and TEM results indicate that oxide particles are stable during the EA process. By following the tests, microstructure analysis was performed on the sample in its as-received state and after current treatment. The microstructures are stable when subjected to high current density. The related thermal model was developed to predict the Joule heating temperatures. The temperatures were compared with the experimental results. At last, a temperature-dependent hardening model was used to explore the mechanisms acting during EA deformation. Since the model can accurately predict the yield strength of 14YWT under EA conditions without the incorporation of non-thermal effects, it can be concluded that the reduction in yield strength is due to the Joule heating generated under continuous current loading conditions. An oven-heated pure thermal tension test was conducted to confirm this conclusion. The new EA tube rolling machine has been completely developed. The related work includes: (1) forming process design; (2) analysis of the effect of roll-tube contact geometry on rolling force; (3) analysis of machine performance under mechanical loading; (4) design of machine electrical setting path and insulation; (5) multi-pass process analysis; (6) design of power transmission system (axial/radial/torque feeding mechanisms), roll bearing system, cooling system, workpiece feeding mechanism, and other related mechanical connection support components; (7) design and optimization of roll profiles/dimensions; (8) analysis and simulation of the rolling process; (9) development of engineering drawings and fabrication; (10) assembly and calibration of the EA tube rolling machine; (11) design and integration of the electrical control system; (12) hardware integration for high power supply electrically-assisted rolling process; (13) induction heating system integration; (14) experimental tests for the new rolling process. Through the process from conceptual design to final machine calibration and experimental tests, there are many technical and physical works that have been implemented and improved for the best performance of the innovative prototype.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

3D-FE Modeling of 316 SS under Strain-Controlled Fatigue Loading and CFD Simulation of PWR Surge Line

In financial year 2017, we are focusing on developing a mechanistic fatigue model of surge line pipes for pressurized water reactors (PWRs). To that end, we plan to perform the following tasks: (1) conduct stress- and strain-controlled fatigue testing of surge-line base metal such as 316 stainless steel (SS) under constant, variable, and random fatigue loading, (2) develop cyclic plasticity material models of 316 SS, (3) develop one-dimensional (1D) analytical or closed-form model to validate the material models and to understand the mechanics associated with 316 SS cyclic hardening and/or softening, (4) develop three-dimensional (3D) finite element (FE) models with implementation of evolutionary cyclic plasticity, and (5) develop computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model for thermal stratification, thermal-mechanical stress, and fatigue of example reactor components, such as a PWR surge line under plant heat-up, cool-down, and normal operation with/without grid-load-following. This semi-annual progress report presents the work completed on the above tasks for a 316 SS laboratory-scale specimen subjected to strain-controlled cyclic loading with constant, variable, and random amplitude. This is the first time that the accurate 3D-FE modeling of the specimen for its entire fatigue life, including the hardening and softening behavior, has been achieved. We anticipate that this work will pave the way for the development of a fully mechanistic-computer model that can be used for fatigue evaluation of safety-critical metallic components, which are traditionally evaluated by heavy reliance on time-consuming and costly test-based approaches. This basic research will not only help the nuclear reactor industry for fatigue evaluation of reactor components in a cost effective and less time-consuming way, but will also help other safety-related industries, such as aerospace, which is heavily dependent on test-based approaches, where a single full-scale fatigue test can cost millions of dollars and require years of effort to conduct. Toward our goal of demonstration of fully mechanistic fatigue evaluation of reactor components, we also started work on developing a component-level computer model of reactor components, such as 316 SS surge line pipe. This requires developing a thermal-mechanical stress analysis model of the reactor surge line, which, in turn, requires time-dependent temperature and stratification information along the boundary of the pipe. Toward that goal, CFD models of surge lines are being developed. In this report, we also present some preliminary results showing the temperature conditions along the surge line wall under reactor heat-up, cool-down, and steady-state power operation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

UNCERTAINTIES FOR IN-REACTOR TESTING OF TRITIUM LOADED GETTERS WITH TEMPERATURE CONTROL

The fourth experiment in TPBAR Materials Irradiation Separate-Effects Test (TMIST) series (TMIST-4) is planned to experimentally determine the effect of neutron irradiation on the equilibrium vapor pressure of tritium over a tritium loaded Nickel-Plated Zirconium (NPZ) getter in a simulated TPBAR service environment. This pressure will be used to estimate the tritium permeation rate. In the thermal design in the TMIST-4, two evaluations are required. 1) The cladding temperature is calculated to estimate the feasibility of detecting potential irradiation enhancement of the partial pressure for an NPZ getter. This work is required to obtain a precise cladding temperature for measurement of a low tritium partial pressure. This work has been completed and indicated that the required/target cladding temperatures based on the TMIST-4 test plan can be satisfied under the test condition range by modifying the capsule component shapes and inserting a thermally conductive metal sleeve. 2) The evaluation of uncertainties associated with the test design and operation is performed. This includes fabrication tolerances, and power and nuclear operating conditions. These factors will impact the component temperatures inside capsules and resulting the tritium partial pressure. The tritium permeation rate is a function of temperature and tritium partial pressure. The prediction of tritium permeation rates affects the feasibility of obtaining measurement resolutions required to reach reasonable conclusion for potential irradiation enhanced performance. This work will investigate the uncertainties.

TTP, TPBAR, TMIST-4, TPBAR Materials Irradiation S↗

Developing an Energy-Conscious Traffic Signal Control System for Optimized Fuel Consumption in Connected Vehicle Environments

The project titled “Developing an Energy-Conscious Traffic Signal Control System for Optimized Fuel Consumption in Connected Vehicle Environments” addresses energy-related challenges associated with adaptive traffic control systems by integrating connected vehicles (CV) and connected infrastructure (CI). The system developed in this project, a CV-based adaptive traffic control system, aims to improve fuel consumption in mixed traffic environments by capitalizing on emerging CV and CI communication technologies, as well as leveraging recent advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI), optimization, and edge computing. The system was tested at the MLK Smart Corridor, an urban testbed managed by the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga (UTC) and the City of Chattanooga. The system was validated through extensive simulations, both Software-in-the-Loop (SILS) and Hardware-in-the-Loop (HILS), and was further implemented and tested in real-world conditions at several intersections along the corridor. The Fuel Consumption Performance Index (FC-PI) and the Ecological Performance Index (Eco-PI) were developed as the key components for evaluating the system’s impact on fuel consumption and emissions. These metrics provided a comprehensive means of understanding the impact of traffic signal control optimization in mixed traffic environments. The report presents an in-depth analysis of the Eco-PI, FC-PI, adaptive traffic control system integration, and the testing and field implementation of the system. The results demonstrate significant reductions in fuel consumption and emissions, showcasing the system’s capability to contribute to more sustainable urban traffic management. The report also documents the challenges encountered and recommendations for scaling and further improving the system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Abradable Sealing Materials for Emerging IGCC-Based Turbine Systems (Final Report)

Reducing the gap between rotating and stationary parts in gas turbine engines, and mitigating gas leakage via these paths, can significantly increase the performance and attendant efficiency. One approach to reducing such gaps is to deploy abradable coatings on the stationary shroud components as seals, to reduce the blade-tip clearances under operational conditions. Abradable coatings must be able to withstand high temperature oxidation, thermal cycling, and erosion, while providing optimal controlled abrasion and associated shape retention. Existing abradable seals utilized in power generation turbines have generally been optimized for use with natural gas-fired systems; however, preliminary testing of syngas and high-hydrogen-content (HHC) fired turbines has shown that the stability of hot-section materials (and presumably abradable sealing materials) may be substantially altered due to characteristic changes in the combustion by-products (partial pressures of water vapor, etc.) as well as characteristic impurities and particulate matter entrained in the fuel. The primary focus of this research program has been to develop a mechanistic understanding of how the altered combustion environments modify the thermo-mechanical stability and performance of the sealing materials, including the requisite abradable sealing behavior. A key component of the research program carried out has been an exploration of mechanisms underpinning observed degradation processes, and an assessment of connections to the combustion environments and characteristic non-combustible constituents. The ultimate goal of the project has been to advance the goals of the Advanced Turbine Program by developing materials design protocols leading to turbine hot-section components with improved resistance to service lifetime degradation under advanced fuels exposures. This research program has evaluated the performance and degradation of ceramic abradable seals used in the high-temperature turbine sections of gas turbine engines. The focus has been two-fold: (1) to understand performance of such materials in relation to the turbines operating on coal-derived syngas and high hydrogen content (HHC) fuels, ultimately seeking an improved understanding of factors that control performance and durability of abradable seal materials for these combustion environments (and play into materials design protocols); and (2) to evaluate the potential of alternative materials as abradable seals for the higher temperatures expected with IGCC and HHC fueled turbine systems. In particular, we carried out an initial assessment of multi-layered systems of existing abradable seal materials (YSZ) and other ceramics. The research program also investigated several classes of abradable coatings under simulated exposures to syngas-based combustion environments, evaluating the relevant wear behavior, hardness, stability under cyclic oxidation, and general thermo-mechanical behavior. The research also attempted to develop alternatives to carrying out full-scale combustion-based abradability test rig exposures to evaluate materials system performance. The research has been focused on correlating the measured thermo-mechanical behavior, and controlled abrasive wear, with the intrinsic properties of the multilayer coatings and processing-controlled microstructural features that have shown attractive machinability characteristics based on weak interfacial bonding between the constituent phases at elevate temperatures (while maintaining thermochemical stability). This program has resulted in an improved mechanistic understanding of factors governing performance of high temperature abradable seals, and degradation mechanisms unique to IGCC-based power generation turbine systems and the realization of coal-derived syngas and HHC-based combustion environments – ultimately with the goal of developing a knowledge base upon which the design of coatings that retain optimal sealing characteristics and are more resistant to the observed wear/attack mechanisms, important aspects of advancing the goals of the DOE Advanced Turbine Program.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Spectroscopic online monitoring for process control and safeguarding of radiochemical streams

This paper summarizes application of the absorption and vibrational spectroscopic techniques supplemented by physicochemical measurements for radiochemical process monitoring. In this context, our team experimentally assessed the potential of Raman and spectrophotometric techniques for online real-time monitoring of the U(VI)/nitrate ion/nitric acid and Pu(IV)/Np(V)/Nd(III), respectively, in solutions relevant to spent fuel reprocessing. These techniques demonstrate robust performance in the repetitive batch measurements of each analyte in a wide concentration range using simulant and commercial dissolved spent fuel solutions. Spectroscopic measurements served as training sets for the multivariate data analysis to obtain partial least squares predictive models, which were validated using on-line centrifugal contactor extraction tests. Satisfactory prediction of the analytes concentrations in these preliminary experiments warrants further development of the spectroscopy-based methods for radiochemical process control and safeguarding. Additionally, the ability to identify material intentionally diverted from a liquid-liquid extraction contactor system was successfully tested using on-line process monitoring as a means to detect the amount of material diverted. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Understanding the Irradiation Behavior of Zirconium Carbide

Zirconium carbide (ZrC) is being considered for utilization in high-temperature gas-cooled reactor fuels in deep-burn TRISO fuel. Zirconium carbide possesses a cubic B1-type crystal structure with a high melting point, exceptional hardness, and good thermal and electrical conductivities. The use of ZrC as part of the TRISO fuel requires a thorough understanding of its irradiation response. However, the radiation effects on ZrC are still poorly understood. The majority of the existing research is focused on the radiation damage phenomena at higher temperatures (>450{degree}C) where many fundamental aspects of defect production and kinetics cannot be easily distinguished. Little is known about basic defect formation, clustering, and evolution of ZrC under irradiation, although some atomistic simulation and phenomenological studies have been performed. Such detailed information is needed to construct a model describing the microstructural evolution in fast-neutron irradiated materials that will be of great technological importance for the development of ZrC-based fuel. The goal of the proposed project is to gain fundamental understanding of the radiation-induced defect formation in zirconium carbide and irradiation response by using a combination of state-of-the-art experimental methods and atomistic modeling. This project will combine (1) in situ ion irradiation at a specialized facility at a national laboratory, (2) controlled temperature proton irradiation on bulk samples, and (3) atomistic modeling to gain a fundamental understanding of defect formation in ZrC. The proposed project will cover the irradiation temperatures from cryogenic temperature to as high as 800{degree}C, and dose ranges from 0.1 to 100 dpa. The examination of this wide range of temperatures and doses allows us to obtain an experimental data set that can be effectively used to exercise and benchmark the computer calculations of defect properties. Combining the examination of radiation-induced microstructures mapped spatially and temporally, microstructural evolution during post-irradiation annealing, and atomistic modeling of defect formation and transport energetics will provide new, critical understanding about property changes in ZrC. The behavior of materials under irradiation is determined by the balance between damage production, defect clustering, and lattice response. In order to predict those effects at high temperatures so targeted testing can be expanded and extrapolated beyond the known database, it is necessary to determine the defect energetics and mobilities as these control damage accumulation and annealing. In particular, low-temperature irradiations are invaluable for determining the regions of defect mobility. Computer simulation techniques are particularly useful for identifying basic defect properties, especially if closely coupled with a well-constructed and complete experimental database. The close coupling of calculation and experiment in this project will provide mutual benchmarking and allow us to glean a deeper understanding of the irradiation response of ZrC, which can then be applied to the prediction of its behavior in reactor conditions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Identification of Plasma Current Center by Neural Network Inference in EAST

For the efficient and safe operation of experimental advanced superconducting tokamak (EAST), it is necessary to accurately identify and control the plasma current and its central position. In this article, neural network is used to identify the position of the plasma current center. The model trained by the basic back-propagation neural network can well match the relationship between the electromagnetic diagnostic signals and plasma current center positions. Both noisy simulation data and experimental data are applied to train and test the neural network inference model. Adding 0.1% noise to the training data is proven to improve the noise immunity of the inference model. Basic neural networks trained with both noisy simulation data and actual experimental data show good results with sufficient inputs; however, in both cases, the performance degrades significantly when only the poloidal field coil currents are given as inputs. For this kind of time-series problem, the dynamic neural network containing delay and feedback architecture is introduced, and an improved model requiring much fewer inputs is trained and tested for current center inference. Furthermore, some parameters of this model are compared and analyzed in this article. With suitable neural network architecture, the mapping between the controlled variables (poloidal field coil currents) and response variables (plasma current center) can be well-established.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Modeling forest carbon cycle response to tree mortality: Effects of plant functional type and disturbance intensity

Natural and anthropogenic disturbances influence ecological succession and impact the carbon cycle. Understanding disturbance effects and ecosystem recovery is essential to carbon modeling. Here, we hypothesized that (1) species-specific disturbances impact the carbon cycle differently from nonspecific disturbances. In particular, disturbances that target early-successional species will lead to higher carbon uptake by the postrecovery, middle- and late-successional community and (2) disturbances that affect the midsuccessional deciduous species have more intense and long-lasting impacts on carbon uptake than disturbances of similar intensity that only affect the early-successional species. To test these hypotheses, we employed a series of simulations conducted with the Ecosystem Demography model version 2 to evaluate the sensitivity of a temperate mixed-deciduous forest to disturbance intensity and type. Our simulation scenarios included a control (undisturbed) case, a uniform disturbance case where we removed 30% of all trees regardless of their successional status, five cases where only early-successional deciduous trees were removed with increasing disturbance intensity (30%, 70%, 85%, and 100%), and four cases of midsuccessional disturbances with increasing intensity (70%, 85%, and 100%). Our results indicate that disturbances affecting the midsuccessional deciduous trees led to larger decreases in carbon uptake as well as longer recovery times when compared to disturbances that exclusively targeted the early-successional deciduous trees at comparable intensities. Moreover, disturbances affecting 30% to 100% of early-successional deciduous trees resulted in an increased carbon uptake, beginning 6 years after the disturbance and sustained through the end of the 100 year simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗