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Machine Learning-Based Regression Models for Ironmaking Blast Furnace Automation

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based simulation has been the traditional way to model complex industrial systems and processes. One very large and complex industrial system that has benefited from CFD-based simulations is the steel blast furnace system. The problem with the CFD-based simulation approach is that it tends to be very slow for generating data. The CFD-only approach may not be fast enough for use in real-time decisionmaking. To address this issue, in this work, the authors propose the use of machine learning techniques to train and test models based on data generated via CFD simulation. Regression models based on neural networks are compared with tree-boosting models. In particular, several areas (tuyere, raceway, and shaft) of the blast furnace are modeled using these approaches. The results of the model training and testing are presented and discussed. The obtained R 2 metrics are, in general, very high. The results appear promising and may help to improve the efficiency of operator and process engineer decisionmaking when running a blast furnace.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Predicting Airport Runway Configurations for Decision-Support Using Supervised Learning

One of the most challenging tasks for air traffic controllers is runway configuration management (RCM). It deals with the optimal selection of runways to operate on (for arrivals and departures) based on traffic, surface wind speed, wind direction, other environmental variables, noise constraints, and several other airport-specific factors. It affects the efficiency of the National Airspace System (NAS) and both surface and airspace operations can benefit from better understanding future runway configurations. In this paper, we present a comprehensive implementation of predictive models for runway configuration estimation from large volumes of historical data. Specifically, operational data from two full years (2018 and 2019) is collected, analyzed, and fused together to build the data product used in this work. The data set differs from prior work in the field in terms of its scope, resolution, and variety of factors collected and considered. Meteorological data is collected from two different sources – current weather conditions from METAR (Meteorological Terminal Aviation Routine Weather Report) and forecast weather conditions from Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP). Operational data from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) related to scheduled and actual number of arrivals and departures, average taxi times, etc. are collected. NASA’s Sherlock Data Warehouse is used to identify critical information such as go-arounds, and other events that might impact RCM decision-making. All data is collected and aggregated over 15-minute intervals throughout the two years. This provides a resolution like the timescales that might be necessary for runway configuration management decision-making. A variety of supervised learning algorithms are tested including Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, etc. including tuning of the model hyperparameters. The modeling process is applied and presented on two representative U.S. airports – Charlotte Douglas International Airport (KCLT) and Denver International Airport (KDEN). The two airports present different levels of complexity in terms of the total number of configurations used and provide a balanced perspective on the generalizability of the developed approach to other airports in the NAS. Initial results are promising (F1 score of 0.91 at KCLT and 0.83 at KDEN) for data in the test set. The final paper will contain a comprehensive comparison between different models and model building strategies as well as further refined results. Most important predictors for each airport will be identified along with a discussion and recommendations on adapting the framework to other scenarios.

Tejas G Puranik↗

Changes in polarization dictate necessary approximations for modeling electronic deexcitation intensity: Application to x-ray emission

Accurate simulation of electronic excitations and deexcitations are critical for complementing complex spectroscopic experiments and can provide validation to theoretical approaches. Here, using a generalized framework, we contrast the accuracy and validity of orbital-constrained and linear-response approaches that build upon Kohn-Sham density functional theory (DFT) to simulate emission spectra of electronic origin and propose an efficient approximation, named many-body x-ray emission spectroscopy or MBXES, for simulating such processes. We show analytically as well as with computed examples that for electronic (de)excitation leading to an appreciable change in polarization (i.e., density rearrangement), the adiabatic approximation in a response-based formalism will be inadequate for the calculation of oscillator strength. Thus, such a change (e.g., in the net electrostatic dipole moment of a finite system) can be used as a metric for evaluating the applicability of the adiabatic response-based approach and can be particularly valuable in x-ray emission spectroscopy. On the other hand, MBXES, the flexible method introduced in this paper, can compute oscillator strengths accurately at a much lower computational expense on the basis of two DFT-based self-consistent field calculations. Using illustrative examples of emission spectra, the efficacy of the MBXES method is demonstrated by comparison with its parent theory, orbital-optimized DFT, and with experiments.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Coronal Mass Ejections: a Summary of Recent Results

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been recognized as the most energetic phenomenon in the heliosphere, deriving their energy from the stressed magnetic fields on the Sun. This paper highlights some of the recent results on CMEs obtained from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) missions. The summary of the talk follows. SOHO observations revealed that the CME rate is almost a factor of two larger than previously thought and varied with the solar activity cycle in a complex way (e.g., high-latitude CMEs occurred in great abundance during the solar maximum years). CMEs were found to interact with other CMEs as well as with other large-scale structures (coronal holes), resulting in deflections and additional particle acceleration. STEREO observations have confirmed the three-dimensional nature of CMEs and the shocks surrounding them. The EUV signatures (flare arcades, corona) dimming, filament eruption, and EUV waves) associated with CMEs have become vital in the identification of solar sources from which CMEs erupt. CMEs with speeds exceeding the characteristic speeds of the corona and the interplanetary medium drive shocks, which produce type II radio bursts. The wavelength range of type II bursts depends on the CME kinetic energy: type II bursts with emission components at all wavelengths (metric to kilometric) are due to CMEs of the highest kinetic energy. Some CMEs, as fast as 1600 km/s do not produce type II bursts, while slow CMEs (400 km/s) occasionally produce type II bursts. These observations can be explained as the variation in the ambient flow speed (solar wind) and the Alfven speed. Not all CME-driven shocks produce type II bursts because either they are subcritical or do not have the appropriate geometry. The same shocks that produce type II bursts also produce solar energetic particles (SEPs), whose release near the Sun seems to be delayed with respect to the onset of type II bursts. This may indicate a subtle difference in the acceleration of the ions and 10 keV electrons needed to produce type II bursts. Surprisingly, some shocks lacking type II bursts are associated with energetic storm particle events (ESPs) pointing to the importance of electron escape from the shock for producing the radio emission. CMEs slow down or accelerate in the interplanetary medium because of the drag force, which modifies the transit time of CMEs and shocks. Halo CMEs that appear to surround the occulting disk were known before the SOHO era as occasional events. During the SOHO era, they became very prominent because of their ability to impact Earth and producing geomagnetic storms. Halo CMEs are generally more energetic than ordinary CMEs, which means they can produce severe impact on Earth's magnetosphere. Their origin close to the disk center of the Sun ensures direct impact on the magnetosphere, although their internal magnetic structure is crucial in causing storms. The solar sources of CMEs that produce SEP events at Earth, on the other hand, are generally in the western hemisphere because of the magnetic connectivity. Thus, CMEs are very interesting from the point of view of plasma physics as well as practical implications because of their space weather impact.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗

NASA's Space Launch System: An Enabling Capability for Discovery

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Space Launch System (SLS) Program, managed at the Marshall Space Flight Center, is making progress toward delivering a new capability for human spaceflight and scientific missions beyond Earth orbit. Developed with the goals of safety, affordability, and sustainability in mind, the SLS rocket will launch the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV), equipment, supplies, and major science missions for exploration and discovery. Making its first uncrewed test flight in 2017 and its first crewed flight in 2021, the SLS will evolve into the most powerful launch vehicle ever flown, capable of supporting human missions into deep space and to Mars. This paper will summarize the planned capabilities of the vehicle, the progress the SLS Program has made in the years since the Agency formally announced its architecture in September 2011, and the path the program is following to reach the launch pad in 2017 and then to evolve the 70 metric ton (t) initial lift capability to 130 t lift capability. The paper will outline the milestones the program has already reached, from developmental milestones such as the manufacture of the first flight hardware and recordbreaking engine testing, to life-cycle milestones such as the vehicle's Preliminary Design Review in the summer of 2013. The paper will also discuss the remaining challenges in both delivering the 70 t vehicle and in evolving its capabilities to the 130 t vehicle, and how the program plans to accomplish these goals. In addition, this paper will demonstrate how the Space Launch System is being designed to enable or enhance not only human exploration missions, but robotic scientific missions as well. Because of its unique launch capabilities, SLS will support simplifying spacecraft complexity, provide improved mass margins and radiation mitigation, and reduce mission durations. These capabilities offer attractive advantages for ambitious science missions by reducing infrastructure requirements, cost, and schedule. A traditional baseline approach for a mission to investigate the Jovian system would require a complicated trajectory with several gravity-assist planetary fly-bys to achieve the necessary outbound velocity. The SLS rocket, offering significantly higher C3 energies, can more quickly and effectively take the mission directly to its destination, providing scientific results sooner and at lower operational cost. The SLS rocket will launch payloads of unprecedented mass and volume, such as "monolithic" telescopes and in-space infrastructure, and will revolutionize science mission planning and design for years to come. As this paper will explain, SLS is making measurable progress toward becoming a global infrastructure asset for robotic and human scouts of all nations by harnessing business and technological innovations to deliver sustainable solutions for space exploration.

Creech, Stephen D.↗

NASA's Space Launch System: An Enabling Capability for Discovery

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Space Launch System (SLS) Program, managed at the Marshall Space Flight Center, is making progress toward delivering a new capability for human spaceflight and scientific missions beyond Earth orbit. Developed with the goals of safety, affordability, and sustainability in mind, the SLS rocket will launch the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV), equipment, supplies, and major science missions for exploration and discovery. Making its first uncrewed test flight in 2017 and its first crewed flight in 2021, the SLS will evolve into the most powerful launch vehicle ever flown, capable of supporting human missions into deep space and to Mars. This paper will summarize the planned capabilities of the vehicle, the progress the SLS Program has made in the years since the Agency formally announced its architecture in September 2011, and the path the program is following to reach the launch pad in 2017 and then to evolve the 70 metric ton (t) initial lift capability to 130 t lift capability. The paper will outline the milestones the program has already reached, from developmental milestones such as the manufacture of the first flight hardware and recordbreaking engine testing, to life-cycle milestones such as the vehicle's Preliminary Design Review in the summer of 2013. The paper will also discuss the remaining challenges in both delivering the 70 t vehicle and in evolving its capabilities to the 130 t vehicle, and how the program plans to accomplish these goals. In addition, this paper will demonstrate how the Space Launch System is being designed to enable or enhance not only human exploration missions, but robotic scientific missions as well. Because of its unique launch capabilities, SLS will support simplifying spacecraft complexity, provide improved mass margins and radiation mitigation, and reduce mission durations. These capabilities offer attractive advantages for ambitious science missions by reducing infrastructure requirements, cost, and schedule. A traditional baseline approach for a mission to investigate the Jovian system would require a complicated trajectory with several gravity-assist planetary fly-bys to achieve the necessary outbound velocity. The SLS rocket, offering significantly higher C3 energies, can more quickly and effectively take the mission directly to its destination, providing scientific results sooner and at lower operational cost. The SLS rocket will launch payloads of unprecedented mass and volume, such as "monolithic" telescopes and in-space infrastructure, and will revolutionize science mission planning and design for years to come. As this paper will explain, SLS is making measurable progress toward becoming a global infrastructure asset for robotic and human scouts of all nations by harnessing business and technological innovations to deliver sustainable solutions for space exploration.

Creech, Stephen D.↗

Modeling powder spreadability in powder-based processes using the discrete element method

Powder-bed fusion (PBF) processes refer to a subset of Additive Manufacturing (AM) techniques where powder is spread on the build-plate before melting (by a laser or electron beam). While PBF processes are attractive due to their ability for realizing complex structures that are either difficult or impossible to create through conventional means, the parts fabricated with these techniques can exhibit defects such as pores, inclusions, and excessive surface roughness. To minimize these defects, much research has been dedicated towards process maturation by optimizing laser or electron beam parameters. However, these developmental efforts typically do not address the recoating process where achieving dense and uniform layers of powder is a necessity for ensuring process repeatability and part quality. While the recoating process can be studied through experimentation, the dynamics of particle movement are difficult to analyze experimentally. Therefore, here, in this study, powder spreading in PBF was simulated through the Discrete Element Method (DEM) to elucidate the mechanisms that control powder-bed quality. Utilizing the Buckingham Pi theorem, a dimensionless metric referred to as the spreading index is developed that combines powder-bed density, roughness, and particle size to assess the quality of powder layers. The formulated spreading index is then related to several dimensionless quantities that provide insight into the mechanisms dominating powder spreading in PBF. The DEM simulations conducted in this work focused on the scenario where powder is spread onto an existing powder bed and revealed that a reduction in the recoating velocity causes an increase in the spreading index while little to no impact on the spreading index was observed when varying layer thickness from 30 μm to 75 μm.Particle size effects on the powder-bed quality were also investigated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Surrogate modelling the Baryonic Universe II: On forward modelling the colours of individual and populations of galaxies

ABSTRACT Among the properties shaping the light of a galaxy, the star formation history (SFH) is one of the most challenging to model due to the variety of correlated physical processes regulating star formation. In this work, we leverage the stellar population synthesis model fsps, together with SFHs predicted by the hydrodynamical simulation IllustrisTNG and the empirical model universemachine, to study the impact of star formation variability on galaxy colours. We start by introducing a model-independent metric to quantify the burstiness of a galaxy formation model, and we use this metric to demonstrate that universemachine predicts SFHs with more burstiness relative to IllustrisTNG. Using this metric and principal component analysis, we construct families of SFH models with adjustable variability, and we show that the precision of broad-band optical and near-infrared colours degrades as the level of unresolved short-term variability increases. We use the same technique to demonstrate that variability in metallicity and dust attenuation presents a practically negligible impact on colours relative to star formation variability. We additionally provide a model-independent fitting function capturing how the level of unresolved star formation variability translates into imprecision in predictions for galaxy colours; our fitting function can be used to determine the minimal SFH model that reproduces colours with some target precision. Finally, we show that modelling the colours of individual galaxies with per cent-level precision demands resorting to complex SFH models, while producing precise colours for galaxy populations can be achieved using models with just a few degrees of freedom.

Chaves-Montero, Jonás (ORCID:0000000295534261)↗

LCTV Holographic Imaging

Astronauts are required to interface with complex systems that require sophisticated displays to communicate effectively. Lightweight, head-mounted real-time displays that present holographic images for comfortable viewing may be the ideal solution. We describe an implementation of a liquid crystal television (LCTV) as a spatial light modulator (SLM) for the display of holograms. The implementation required the solution of a complex set of problems. These include field calculations, determination of the LCTV-SLM complex transmittance characteristics and a precise knowledge of the signal mapping between the LCTV and frame grabbing board that controls it. Realizing the hologram is further complicated by the coupling that occurs between the phase and amplitude in the LCTV transmittance. A single drive signal (a gray level signal from a framegrabber) determines both amplitude and phase. Since they are not independently controllable (as is true in the ideal SLM) one must deal with the problem of optimizing (in some sense) the hologram based on this constraint. Solutions for the above problems have been found. An algorithm has been for field calculations that uses an efficient outer product formulation. Juday's MEDOF 7 (Minimum Euclidean Distance Optimal Filter) algorithm used for originally for filter calculations has been successfully adapted to handle metrics appropriate for holography. This has solved the problem of optimizing the hologram to the constraints imposed by coupling. Two laboratory methods have been developed for determining an accurate mapping of framegrabber pixels to LCTV pixels. A friendly software system has been developed that integrates the hologram calculation and realization process using a simple set of instructions. The computer code and all the laboratory measurement techniques determining SLM parameters have been proven with the production of a high quality test image.

Knopp, Jerome↗

NED_Asteroid_Energy_Deposition

In the event of a potentially catastrophic asteroid impact, with sufficient warning time, deploying a nuclear device remains a powerful option for planetary defense if a kinetic impactor proves insufficient. Predicting the effectiveness of a potential nuclear deflection or disruption mission depends on accurate multiphysics simulations of the device's x-ray energy deposition into the asteroid and the resulting material ablation. These simulations span many orders of magnitude, require a variety of different complex physics packages, and are computationally expensive. Having an efficient and accurate way of modeling this system is necessary for exploring a mission's sensitivity to the asteroid's range of physical properties. To expedite future simulations, we present a completed x-ray energy deposition model developed using the radiation-hydrodynamics code Kull which can be used to initiate a nuclear mitigation mission hydrocode. The model spans a wide variety of possible mission initial conditions: four different asteroid-like materials (Silicon Dioxide, Forsterite, Iron, and Ice), two different source spectra (1 and 2 keV blackbodies), and then a broad range of radiation fluences (0.0001 to 1 kt per square meter), source durations (10 to 100 ns), and asteroid porosities (0 to 80 percent). Using blowoff momentum as the primary metric, the modelinitiated simulation results match the full radiation-hydrodynamics results to within 10 percent. Please reference the journal article: Burkey et al., X-Ray Energy Deposition Model for Simulating Asteroid Response to a Nuclear Planetary Defense Mitigation Mission, Planetary Science Journal, (2023) for more information.

Managan, RobertA↗

Comparison of Machine Learning-Based Predictive Models of the Nutrient Loads Delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico

Predicting nutrient loads is essential to understanding and managing one of the environmental issues faced by the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone, which poses a severe threat to the Gulf’s healthy ecosystem and economy. The development of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico is strongly associated with the eutrophication process initiated by excessive nutrient loads. Due to the complexities in the excessive nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico, it is challenging to understand and predict the underlying temporal variation of nutrient loads. The study was aimed at identifying an optimal predictive machine learning model to capture and predict nonlinear behavior of the nutrient loads delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) to the Gulf of Mexico. For this purpose, monthly nutrient loads (N and P) in tons were collected from US Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring station 07373420 from 1980 to 2020. Machine learning models—including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), gaussian process regression (GPR), single-layer multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a long short-term memory (LSTM) with the single hidden layer—were developed to predict the monthly nutrient loads, and model performances were evaluated by standard assessment metrics—Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation Coefficient (R). The residuals of predictive models were examined by the Durbin–Watson statistic. The results showed that MLP and LSTM persistently achieved better accuracy in predicting monthly TN and TP loads compared to GPR and ARIMA. In addition, GPR models achieved slightly better test RMSE score than ARIMA models while their correlation coefficients are much lower than ARIMA models. Moreover, MLP performed slightly better than LSTM in predicting monthly TP loads while LSTM slightly outperformed for TN loads. Furthermore, it was found that the optimizer and number of inputs didn’t show effects on the LSTM performance while they exhibited impacts on MLP outcomes. This study explores the capability of machine learning models to accurately predict nonlinearly fluctuating nutrient loads delivered to the Gulf of Mexico. Further efforts focus on improving the accuracy of forecasting using hybrid models which combine several machine learning models with superior predictive performance for nutrient fluxes throughout the MARB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Feature Detection in Linked Derived Spaces

This paper describes by example a strategy for plotting and interacting with data in multiple metric spaces. The example system was designed for use with time-varying computational fluid dynamics (CFD) datasets, but the methodology is directly applicable to other types of field data. The central objects embodied by the tool are {\em portraits}, which show the data in various coordinate systems, while preserving their spatial connectivity and temporal variability. The coordinates are derived in various ways from the field data, and an important feature is that new and derived portraits can be created interactively. The primary operations supported by the tool are brushing and linking: the user can select a subset of a given portrait, and this subset is highlighted in all portraits. The user can combine highlighted subsets from an arbitrary number of portraits with the usual logical operators, thereby indicating where an arbitrarily complex set of conditions holds. The system is useful for exploratory visualization and feature detection in multivariate data.

Henze, Chris↗

Evaluating the potential for bird‐habitat models to support biodiversity‐friendly urban planning

Abstract Urban expansion poses a major threat to wildlife populations. Biodiversity‐friendly urban landscapes could deliver benefits for both wildlife and people, by incorporating conservation and ecosystem services objectives. Well‐designed urban developments could also soften the ecological impacts of urbanization. However, delivering urban landscapes that integrate biodiversity requirements effectively remains challenging. Ecological models, designed to predict wildlife population responses to alternative urban designs, could prove effective in supporting the creation of biodiversity‐friendly urban landscapes. Here, we combine national‐scale bird abundance data with high resolution, spatially explicit habitat data to characterize relationships between bird densities and urban landscape form in Britain. From these analyses and cross validation, we evaluate the potential for well‐parameterized, species‐specific models to be used to predict bird densities in novel or modified urban areas. Our analyses indicate that responses of bird abundance to urban habitat are species‐specific and complex, with few variables consistently affecting a large proportion of species. However, contiguous areas of greenspace within urban sites are preferential for accommodating breeding birds, compared to a more fragmented arrangement of multiple, small greenspace patches. In combination, the bird‐habitat relationships identified could successfully predict observed variation in abundance for most bird species considered. Further evaluation of habitat descriptor variables, spatial scales of species' habitat use and analytical modelling approaches may be needed to improve the predictive ability of bird‐habitat models for certain species, particularly waterbirds and those observed less frequently in urban areas. Synthesis and applications . We modelled breeding bird abundance in built‐up areas with respect to the characteristics and contexts of urban environments. While most variables were important for multiple species, responses overall were species‐specific, so simple assemblage metrics, like diversity, will not describe the variation in bird communities well. However, the results illustrate the potential of an evidence‐based, spatially explicit evaluation of urban development impacts on biodiversity, by predicting the consequences for bird numbers. Subject to verification of predictive ability, practitioners can apply the models to compare, for example, land‐sparing and sharing within developments, or to quantify the biodiversity requirements for effective offsetting. This would be facilitated by incorporation into an online tool allowing user‐determined input scenarios.

Plummer, Kate E.↗

MODELING A SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL CASK SEISMIC TEST

The US Department of Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) program is planning to conduct a series of full-scale shake table tests to simulate hypothetical earthquake conditions and record the response of surrogate spent nuclear fuel (SNF) assemblies in a canister dry storage system mockup. The shake table motions will represent a range of hypothetical earthquake conditions at hypothetical locations in the continental US to generally define the range of mechanical loads that SNF can be expected to experience during extended dry storage periods. The earthquake conditions will represent seismic hazards in the 2,000-to-20,000-year return period range. The test will use instrumented pressurized water reactor fuel assemblies with surrogate mass inside the fuel rods instead of radioactive fuel pellets. Dummy assemblies with similar mass and dimensions to actual fuel assemblies will occupy the rest of the fuel assembly locations in a SNF canister that holds 32 fuel assemblies. The canister will be located inside a mockup vertical concrete cask. Instrumentation will record the motion of the major components of the complex dynamic system, and strain gauges will be used to record the cladding strain at select locations. Preparations for the test require modeling predictions to identify the range of response of the system and to help select specific earthquake cases to be simulated on the shake table from a large set of potential cases. This paper describes the pretest nonlinear finite element modeling efforts that have been completed to date, including cask system level modeling and fuel assembly modeling in LS-DYNA. The cask system level models are critical for anticipating sliding or tipping of an unanchored cask during the test. The fuel assembly model is needed to estimate the range of cladding strain response and fuel assembly structural response to be expected during the test and cladding strain measurements will be key metrics for model validation and the development of modeling best practices after the test is concluded.

Klymyshyn, Nicholas A.↗

Automated Global-Scale Detection and Characterization of Anthropogenic Activity using Multi-Source Satellite-Based Remote Sensing Imagery

Satellite-based remote sensing imagery is an effective means for detecting objects and structures in support of many applications. However, detecting the spatial and temporal bounds of a specific activity in satellite imagery is inherently more complex and research in this area is nascent. One reason for this is that describing an activity implies defining both spatial and temporal bounds and while activity is inherently continuous in nature, the geospatial (imagery) time series for any particular swath of ground provided by satellite imagery is relatively sparse and discrete in comparison. The IARPA Space-Based Machine Automated Recognition Technique (SMART)1 program is the first large-scale research program to target advancing the state of the art for automatically detecting, characterizing, and monitoring large-scale anthropogenic activity in global, multispectral satellite imagery. The program has two primary research objectives: 1) the “harmonization” of multiple imagery sources and 2) automated reasoning at scale to detect, characterize, and monitor activities of interest. This paper provides details on the goals, dataset, metrics, and lessons learned of the IARPA SMART program. By releasing the annotated dataset, the program aims to foster additional research in this area by the community at large.

Hirsh R Goldberg↗

Comparing emulation methods for a high‐resolution storm surge model

Abstract Realistic simulations of complex systems are fundamental for climate and environmental studies. Large computer systems are often not sufficient to run sophisticated computational models for large numbers of different input settings. Statistical surrogate models, or emulators, are key tools enabling fast exploration of the simulator input space. Gaussian processes have become standard for computer simulator emulation. However, they require careful implementation to scale appropriately, motivating alternative methods more recently introduced. We present a comparison study of surrogates of the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) simulator—the simulator of choice for government agencies—using four emulation approaches: BASS; BART; SEPIA; and RobustGaSP. SEPIA and RobustGaSP use Gaussian processes, BASS implements adaptive splines, and BART is based on ensembles of regression trees. We describe the four models and compare them in terms of computation time and predictive metrics. These surrogates use proven and distinct methodologies, are available through accessible software, and quantify prediction uncertainty. Our data cover millions of response values. We find that SEPIA and RobustGaSP provide exceptional predictive power, but cannot scale to emulate experiments as large as the one considered in this paper as effectively as BASS and BART.

Hutchings, Grant↗

The effect of composition on helium bubble nucleation in complex concentrated alloys

Molecular dynamics simulations of helium implantation have been performed in the MoNbTaTi complex concentrated alloy (CCA) to determine the impact of composition on helium clustering and bubble nucleation. It was found that compositions with lower interstitial atomic volume resulted in smaller cluster sizes, higher helium-to-vacancy ratios, and larger migration barriers. As the atomic volume decreases, it is harder to accommodate additional helium in the lattice and for helium to diffuse between interstitial sites, resulting in smaller cluster sizes. In particular, increasing molybdenum directly correlated with a decreased interstitial atomic volume and increased migration barrier. Niobium exhibited the opposite trend, where more niobium in the material resulted in larger interstitial atomic volumes and cluster sizes but lower migration barriers. The atomic volume was determined to be an indicator of the susceptibility of the material to helium bubble growth and could potentially be used as a metric to screen compositions for resistance to helium damage. In this way, properties such as available interstitial volumes could be used to screen materials more rapidly given the vast compositional space of CCAs.

McCarthy, Megan Jeanne [Sandia National Laboratori↗

Investigation into the instantaneous centre of rotation for enhanced design of floating offshore wind turbines

The dynamic behaviour of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) involves complex interactions of multivariate loads from wind, waves, and currents, which result in complex motion characteristics. Although methods for analysing global motion responses are well-established, the time- and location-dependent kinematics remain underexplored. This paper investigates the instantaneous centre of rotation (ICR), a point of zero velocity at a time instance of general plane motion. Understanding and strategically positioning the ICR can reduce the dynamic motion in critical structural locations, enhancing the performance and structural robustness of FOWTs. The paper presents a method for computing the ICR using time-domain simulation results and proposes a statistical analysis approach suitable for design studies. Building on prior research, it examines the sensitivity of the ICR to external loading and design features, providing insights into how these factors influence motion response and how the motion response influences the statistics of the ICR, structural loads, and other performance metrics of interest. The study explores two FOWT configurations, a spar and a semisubmersible, identifying design variables that most effectively control the ICR statistics and identifying the ICR statistics most correlated with the responses of interest. Finally, through two case studies, we demonstrate how to apply these new insights in a practical design scenario. By adjusting the design variables most correlated with the ICR (fairlead vertical position and centre of mass for the spar and mooring line length and offset column diameter for the semisubmersible), we successfully modified the designs of the floating support structures to reduce the loads in the mooring lines, tower base, and blade roots, improving the ultimate strength and fatigue characteristics compared to the original designs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗