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Boundary Layer Controls on the Shallow-to-Deep Cumulus Transition (Final Technical Report)

This project advanced our understanding of the processes governing cumulus cloud formation and provides an improved observational basis for validating earth system models. To be specific, the project used laser- and radar-remote sensors to examine the physical properties of updrafts that rise from earth’s surface and initiate clouds deeper in the atmosphere. These updrafts comprise “thermals” and “plumes” and occur at small spatial and temporal scales (e.g., 10s of minutes, 100s of meters). These small scales preclude explicit representation in most earth system and climate models, and thus necessitate “sub-grid-scale” parameterization of updraft processes. The innovation of this project was to directly measure the size, shape, strength and water vapor content of these updrafts with Doppler and Raman lidars, respectively, and to link these updraft properties to cloud processes using vertically pointed weather radars. The resulting data sets comprise 100s of thousands of updrafts and thousands of clouds, which far exceeds previous efforts, and thereby provides a robust statistical and physical representation of these processes. From these large datasets the project produced a sequence of scientific analyses that: (1) Elucidate how variations in the turbulent structure of the convective boundary layer control shallow cumulus convection, (2) Quantify the upward transport of water vapor to cloud base via thermals and plumes, (3) Validate large-eddy simulations of updrafts and shallow convective clouds, (4) Demonstrate a size-to-strength relationship between updraft width and updraft speed, and (5) Demonstrate how updrafts interact with the stability at the top of the convective boundary layer to modulate the depth and vigor of convective clouds. These results have been disseminated via several published journal articles, academic theses, and conference presentations. Collectively these results contribute to the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program’s goal to “improve understanding of the key cloud, aerosol, precipitation, and radiation processes that affect the Earth’s radiative balance and hydrological cycle, particularly processes that limit the predictive ability of regional and global earth system models”.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

IRIS Product Recommendations

This report presents the Applied Meteorology Unit's (AMU) evaluation of SIGMET Inc.'s Integrated Radar Information System (IRIS) Product Generator and recommendations for products emphasizing lightning and microburst tools. The IRIS Product Generator processes radar reflectivity data from the Weather Surveillance Radar, model 74C (WSR-74C), located on Patrick Air Force Base. The IRIS System was upgraded from version 6.12 to version 7.05 in late December 1999. A statistical analysis of atmospheric temperature variability over the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Weather Station provided guidance for the configuration of radar products that provide information on the mixed-phase (liquid and ice) region of clouds, between 0 C and -20 C. Mixed-phase processes at these temperatures are physically linked to electrification and the genesis of severe weather within convectively generated clouds. Day-to-day variations in the atmospheric temperature profile are of sufficient magnitude to warrant periodic reconfiguration of radar products intended for the interpretation of lightning and microburst potential of convectively generated clouds. The AMU also examined the radar volume-scan strategy to determine the scales of vertical gaps within the altitude range of the 0 C to -20 C isotherms over the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/CCAFS area. This report present's two objective strategies for designing volume scans and proposes a modified scan strategy that reduces the average vertical gap by 37% as a means for improving radar observations of cloud characteristics in the critical 0 C to -20 C layer. The AMU recommends a total of 18 products, including 11 products that require use of the IRIS programming language and the IRIS User Product Insert feature. Included is a cell trends product and display, modeled after the WSR-88D cell trends display in use by the National Weather Service.

Short, David A.↗

Interaction of the ABL with stratocumulus and cumulus cloud layers, appendix N

The role of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over the oceans which in the general circulation of the atmosphere is to supply moisture to cumulus and stratus clouds is outlined. In extreme weather events, such as powerful storms and intense droughts, the primary role of the ABL is to supply or deny moisture to the weather system. Even for routine weather regimes, cloudiness and precipitation are key elements of any forecast. The premier problem for ABL parameterization is to formulate the physical coupling between the ABL turbulence and the clouds.

Randall, D. A.↗

Improving the Freight Productivity of a Heavy-Duty, Battery Electric Truck by Intelligent Energy Management

This project aimed to enhance the range and reduce the operating costs of battery electric Class 8 trucks traveling over 250 miles daily. This was achieved through the development and implementation of an intelligent-Energy Management System (i-EMS) that leverages vehicle and operations data, physics-aware machine learning algorithms, and vehicle-to-cloud (V2C) connectivity. The project hypothesized that advanced machine learning algorithms and real-time data analytics could significantly improve the energy efficiency and range of these trucks. Key objectives included developing a physics-aware machine learning algorithm, implementing an i-EMS with V2C connectivity and physics-aware spatial data analytics (PSDA), and validating the system’s effectiveness with fleet partners HEB Companies and Murphy Logistics. Extensive data collection from vehicle operations, including vehicle characteristics, road conditions, and payload, was conducted. A machine learning algorithm was developed to predict energy consumption and enable proactive decision-making. The i-EMS was implemented on two Volvo VNR BEVs, with operators receiving charging and routing recommendations. Charging stations were installed at depot locations in Texas and Minnesota, with an additional on-route charger in Minnesota. Significant findings included a 14% range improvement for Murphy Logistics on a highway-driving eco-route and a 22% range improvement for HEB Companies on a city-driving eco-route. The i-EMS utilized rule-based methods and physics-based algorithms to predict and reduce energy consumption, with real-time monitoring and analysis through V2C connectivity enabling proactive decision-making. The project demonstrated the feasibility and economic viability of battery electric Class 8 trucks for long-haul operations, showcasing the potential of physics-aware machine learning in optimizing energy management. The successful implementation of the i-EMS in real-world scenarios validates its practical application and effectiveness, paving the way for the widespread adoption of battery electric vehicles in the freight transportation industry.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Physical and Chemical Conditions in the N113 Star-Forming Region in the Low-Metallicity Large Magellanic Cloud

The Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) is the nearest (~50 kpc) star-forming galaxy characterized by a low metallicity (Z~0.3-0.5 Z⨀) similar to galaxies during the early phases of their assembly. As a result, star formation studies in the LMC provide a stepping stone to understanding star formation at earlier epochs of the universe where these processes cannot be directly observed. N113 is one of the most prominent star-forming regions in the LMC hosting one of the most massive giant molecular clouds.N113 is small enough to be imaged in its entirety, but large enough to showcase many important phenomena such as multiple generations of stars, stellar feedback, and different environments. We present our findings from an investigation of the early stages of star formation in the N113 region using the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA)molecular line data probing a wide density range: 12CO, 13CO, and C18O (2-1), 13COand C18O (1-0), HCN (1-0), HCO+ (1-0), H13CN (1-0) and (3-2), H13CO+ (1-0) and (3-2), CS (2-1) and (5-4), as well as 1.3 mm and 3 mm continuum. We used the Python package quick clump to identify molecular clumps. We utilized the multiline non-LTE fitting tool based on models from RADEX developed by Finn et al. (2021, ApJ, 917, 106)to construct the CO, HCN, HCO+, and CS temperature and column density, and the H2density maps of N113. We constructed a catalog of molecular clumps including their physical properties, chemical abundances, sizes, velocities, and velocity dispersions. To establish the evolutionary status of the clumps, their positions were compared with previously identified young stellar objects (YSOs) from the Spitzer/SAGE and Herschel/HERITAGE surveys, as well as water and OH masers. We compared the properties of the clumps in N113 to those in the Galaxy and other regions in the LMC to assess the impact of the environment (e.g., metallicity, stellar feedback) on the star formation process.

Jonathon Noswitz↗

Sensitivity of Arctic Surface Temperature to Including a Comprehensive Ocean Interior Reflectance to the Ocean Surface Albedo Within the Fully Coupled CESM2

Abstract Almost all current climate models simplify the ocean surface albedo (OSA) by assuming the reflected solar energy without the ocean interior contribution. In this study, an improved ocean surface albedo scheme is incorporated into the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) to assess the sensitivity of Arctic surface temperature to including ocean interior reflectance to the OSA. Fully coupled CESM2 simulations with and without ocean interior reflectance are subsequently performed, we focus on the analysis of Arctic surface temperature responses. Incorporating ocean interior reflectance increases absorbed solar radiation and warms the ocean, enhancing seasonal heat storage and release across the Arctic Ocean, and increasing sea ice reduction and positive climate feedbacks that elevates Arctic surface temperature. Seasonal variations in air‐surface temperature differences induce changes in turbulent heat flux patterns, concurrently modifying dynamic advection and moisture processes that affect boundary layer humidity and low clouds, especially in winter. Based on partitioning physical processes in the thermodynamic energy equation, surface air warming is induced primarily through positive heating anomalies of vertical advection, latent heat release, and longwave radiative forcing. Through an examination of the surface energy budget, skin temperature warming is driven predominantly by increased downward longwave radiation, positive surface albedo feedback in summer, and increased conductive heat transport from the ocean particularly in winter. Significant effects of ocean interior reflectance on the Arctic Ocean, including sea surface warming and sea ice reduction, justify the importance of ocean interior reflectance in climate models for better understanding of ongoing Arctic climate changes.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Studying Aerosol, Clouds, and Air Quality in the Coastal Urban Environment of Southeastern Texas

A multi-agency succession of field campaigns was conducted in southeastern Texas during July 2021 through October 2022 to study the complex interactions of aerosols, clouds and air pollution in the coastal urban environment. As part of the Tracking Aerosol Convection interactions Experiment (TRACER), the TRACER- Air Quality (TAQ) campaign the Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation and Environment (ESCAPE) and the Convective Cloud Urban Boundary Layer Experiment (CUBE), a combination of ground-based supersites and mobile laboratories, shipborne measurements and aircraft-based instrumentation were deployed. These diverse platforms collected high-resolution data to characterize the aerosol microphysics and chemistry, cloud and precipitation micro- and macro-physical properties, environmental thermodynamics and air quality-relevant constituents that are being used in follow-on analysis and modeling activities. We present the overall deployment setups, a summary of the campaign conditions and a sampling of early research results related to: (a) aerosol precursors in the urban environment, (b) influences of local meteorology on air pollution, (c) detailed observations of the sea breeze circulation, (d) retrieved supersaturation in convective updrafts, (e) characterizing the convective updraft lifecycle, (f) variability in lightning characteristics of convective storms and (g) urban influences on surface energy fluxes. The work concludes with discussion of future research activities highlighted by the TRACER model-intercomparison project to explore the representation of aerosol-convective interactions in high-resolution simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying the Solar Energy Resource for Puerto Rico

After Hurricane Maria, multiple U.S. Department of Energy laboratories studied the state of the electric grid in Puerto Rico and analyzed grid resilience and grid integration of renewable energy. As part of the work done at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, researchers created new solar resource data, conducted a technical potential and supply curve analysis, and studied the interannual variability of the solar resource. A new methodology was developed to downscale solar resource data from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) from a 4-km x 4-km spatial and 30-minute temporal resolution to a 2 km x 2 km and 5-minute resolution. This methodology primarily used simple physical principles to develop high-resolution cloud properties which were then used to compute solar radiation. The high-resolution datasets were validated against ground measurements and the error metrics were found to be similar to the original lower resolution dataset. Using 20 years of downscaled data from the NSRDB multi-year capacity factors for photovoltaics (PV) were developed for both single-axis tracking and fixed latitude-tilt configurations. Use of the multi-year data provides the ability to understand variability in capacity factors due to variability in weather over a long period of time. For Puerto Rico the coastal regions were found to have significant higher capacity factors than inland. Using land-use and terrain information a technical potential analysis was conducted for Puerto Rico. This analysis restricted single PV plant development to a maximum of 100 MW nameplate capacity. The nameplate capacity for each municipality were then determined. Based on our assumptions, 56 of the 78 total municipalities of Puerto Rico contain some level of solar capacity. Most of the interior municipalities did not have any capacity because of the geographic exclusions used in this study. The lowest capacity for a PV plant observed in a municipality was 10 MW. The maximum capacity within a county was 2,000 MW. Further a supply curve analysis was conducted by taking the results of the technical potential and quantifying system and transmission costs. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was calculated for each theoretical PV plant site, and the levelized cost of transmission was added to the LCOE to produce a total cost estimate for each site. The results of the supply curve analysis allow for a relative comparison of the cost for integrating new PV capacity into the grid. This analysis indicates that cheaper total LCOE sites tend to be larger in capacity. The total capacity in this study was found to be far beyond the maximum peak load for the island. However, this study does not consider the economic and market potential for development. The cumulative capacity presented in this study assumes that the best locations are developed first and ignores the complex decision paths for new power plant development. Therefore, this analysis can only be treated as illustrative. Finally this study investigates the impact of inter-annual variability of resource using a variety of metrices including probability of exceedance and variation in capacity factor and LCOE. This study demonstrates that the capacity factor or LCOE could vary by over 10% year to year. This clearly indicates the risks involved in using any particular year of data and clearly points to the use of multi-year data to reduce some of the risks related to variability in weather.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Beyond Equilibrium Temperature: How the Atmosphere/Interior Connection Affects the Onset of Methane, Ammonia, and Clouds in Warm Transiting Giant Planets

The atmospheric pressure–temperature profiles for transiting giant planets cross a range of chemical transitions. Here we show that the particular shapes of these irradiated profiles for warm giant planets below ~1300 K lead to striking differences in the behavior of nonequilibrium chemistry compared to brown dwarfs of similar temperatures. Our particular focus is H 2 O, CO, CH 4 , CO 2 , and NH 3 in Jupiter- and Neptune-class planets. We show that the cooling history of a planet, which depends most significantly on planetary mass and age, can have a dominant effect on abundances in the visible atmosphere, often swamping trends one might expect based on T eq alone. The onset of detectable CH 4 in spectra can be delayed to lower T eq for some planets compared to equilibrium, or pushed to higher T eq . The detectability of NH 3 is typically enhanced compared to equilibrium expectations, which is opposite to the brown dwarf case. We find that both CH 4 and NH 3 can become detectable at around the same T eq (at T eq values that vary with mass and metallicity), whereas these “onset” temperatures are widely spaced for brown dwarfs. We suggest observational strategies to search for atmospheric trends and stress that nonequilibrium chemistry and clouds can serve as probes of atmospheric physics. As examples of atmospheric complexity, we assess three Neptune-class planets, GJ 436b, GJ 3470b, and WASP-107, all around T eq = 700 K. Tidal heating due to eccentricity damping in all three planets heats the deep atmosphere by thousands of degrees and may explain the absence of CH 4 in these cool atmospheres. Atmospheric abundances must be interpreted in the context of physical characteristics of the planet.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Star formation and molecular clouds

Several differnt stages can be discerned within the star formation process. Star formation can be considered to start when a molecular cloud fragments into many clumps. Many different physical processes are likely to play an important role in star formation, including self-gravity, magnetic fields, rotation, winds, and radiation transport. The current knowledge on some of these processes are reviewed.

Tielens, Alexander G. G. M.↗

Polar ozone

The observation and interpretation of a large, unexpected ozone depletion over Antarctica has changed the international scientific view of stratospheric chemistry. The observations which show the veracity, seasonal nature, and vertical structure of the Antarctic ozone hole are presented. Evidence for Arctic and midlatitude ozone loss is also discussed. The chemical theory for Antarctic ozone depletion centers around the occurrence of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) in Antarctic winter and spring; the climatology and radiative properties of these clouds are presented. Lab studies of the physical properties of PSCs and the chemical processes that subsequently influence ozone depletion are discussed. Observations and interpretation of the chemical composition of the Antarctic stratosphere are described. It is shown that the observed, greatly enhanced abundances of chlorine monoxide in the lower stratosphere are sufficient to explain much if not all of the ozone decrease. The dynamic meteorology of both polar regions is given, interannual and interhemispheric variations in dynamical processes are outlined, and their likely roles in ozone loss are discussed.

Solomon, S.↗

Quasar absorption lines with a nonzero cosmological constant

Quasar absorption lines in flat universes with nonzero cosmological constant Lambda are examined and compared with more conventional zero Lambda universes. Various evolution effects for intergalactic absorbers and the observed number density evolution of each absorption system are examined in order to discriminate between evolution effects and the cosmological models. An interesting interaction between Lambda effects and cosmic absorption phenomena is explored. Equations describing IGM absorption statistics are developed for nonzero Lambda cosmologies, both for unevolving absorber populations and some of the more popular physical models for the IGM and intergalactic clouds which include the effects of the absorber evolution.

Turner, Edwin L.↗

The ISM in the M82 starburst

We have observed (O 1) (63 microns) and (Si 2) (35 microns) in the central 700 pc of the starburst galaxy M82. The luminosities in these transitions are 7.1 x 10(exp 7) solar luminosity and 6.2 x 10(exp 7) solar luminosity, respectively, which are each approx. 0.15% of the bolometric luminosity from this region. The ratios of (O 1) line luminosity to (O 3), (Si 2) (35 microns), and to bolometric luminosities in M82 are similar to those in M42, M17, and Sgr A. These similarities, and the association of the bulk of the (O 1) and (Si 2) emission with the ionized emission, suggest that the dominant emission mechanism for (O 1) and (Si 2) in M82 is the same as in these Galactic regions, namely warm gas photodissociated by UV flux from the OB stars responsible for the nearby H 2 regions. We argue that shock or x ray heated gas or H 2 plasma is a minor contributor to the intensities of these fine structure lines. Both the (O 1) (53 microns) and the (Si 2) (35 microns) spectrum show an asymmetric line profile indistinguishable in shape from those of the (O 3) (52 and 88 microns) and (N 3) (57 microns) lines and similar to that of the more extended (C 2) 158 micron line measured previously in M82. We detect two distinct velocity components, which we attribute to emission from two regions at either end of the central bar, where the bar connects to an orbiting torus of neutral gas seen in H 1 and CO J = 1-0. We model separately the two velocity components and derive the physical conditions in these two regions. The clouds in these regions are small, R approx. 1-2 pc, have warm neutral gas surfaces, T approx. 200 K, and are concentrated with volume filling factors of approx. 0.02 and area filling factors of 1-5. The entire central region (R approx. 700 pc) is characterized by a large number, approx. 5 x 10(exp 4), of 2 x 10(exp 3) solar mass clouds with surface densities of approx. 3 x 10(exp 4) cm(exp -3), illuminated by FUV fluxes 10(exp 4) times the average local interstellar value for the Milky Way. These clouds reside in the harsh conditions of a starburst nucleus, with photoevaporation times of 10(exp 6) yr, and collision timescales only about an order of magnitude longer.

Lord, Steven↗

Deforestation and Biogenic Trace Emissions from Brazilian Cerrado

The overall goal of NASA's SCAR (Smoke, Cloud and Radiation) Program is to obtain physical and chemical properties of the smoke produced by biomass burning and the effects of the smoke on the earth's radiation balance and climate. It is a joint project with the Brazilian government and their organizations, including INPE (Instituto Nacional Pesquisas Espaciais) who actively participate in all activities. Appropriate estimates of the biomass buming in the tropics is therefore essential to determine its effect on the atmosphere and on climate. The SCAR series of experiments is designed with that purpose. The present study of evaluating the burnt-out areas is to augment the data collected to date to help evaluate the effect of biomass burning.

Sinha, Ravi↗

Galileo Probe Measurements of Thermal and Solar Radiation Fluxes in the Jovian Atmosphere

The Galileo probe net flux radiometer (NFR) measured radiation fluxes in Jupiter's atmosphere from about 0.44 to 14 bars, using five spectral channels to separate solar and thermal components. Onboard calibration results confirm that the NFR responded to radiation approximately as expected. NFR channels also responded to a superimposed thermal perturbation, which can be approximately removed using blind channel measurements and physical constraints. Evidence for the expected NH3 cloud was seen in the spectral character of spin-induced modulations of the direct solar beam signals. These results are consistent with an overlying cloud of small NH3 ice particles (0.5-0.75 microns in radius) of optical depth 1.5-2 at 0.5 microns. Such a cloud would have so little effect on thermal fluxes that NFR thermal channels provide no additional constraints on its properties. However, evidence for heating near 0.45 bar in the NFR thermal channels would seem to require either an additional opacity source beyond this small-particle cloud, implying a heterogeneous cloud structure to avoid conflicts with solar modulation results, or a change in temperature lapse rate just above the probe measurements. The large thermal flux levels imply water vapor mixing ratios that are only 6% of solar at 10 bars, but possibly increasing with depth, and significantly subsaturated ammonia at pressures less than 3 bars. If deep NH3 mixing ratios at the probe entry site are 3-4 times ground-based inferences, as suggested by probe radio signal attenuation, then only half as much water is needed to match NFR observations. No evidence of a water cloud was seen near the 5-bar level. The 5-microns thermal channel detected the presumed NH4SH cloud base near 1.35 bars. Effects of this cloud were also seen in the solar channel upflux measurements but not in the solar net fluxes, implying that the cloud is a conservative scatterer of sunlight. The minor thermal signature of this cloud is compatible with particle radii near 3 gm, but it cannot rule out smaller particles. Deeper than about 3 bars, solar channels indicate unexpectedly large absorption of sunlight at wavelengths longer than 0.6 microns, which might be due to unaccounted-for absorption by NH3 between 0.65 and 1.5 microns.

Sromovsky, L. A.↗

Galileo Probe Measurements of Thermal and Solar Radiation Fluxes in the Jovian Atmosphere

The Galileo probe net flux radiometer (NFR) measured radiation fluxes in Jupiter's atmosphere from about 0.44 to 14 bars, using five spectral channels to separate solar and thermal components. Onboard calibration results confirm that the NFR responded to radiation approximately as expected. NFR channels also responded to a superimposed thermal perturbation, which can be approximately removed using blind channel measurements and physical constraints. Evidence for the expected NH3 cloud was seen in the spectral character of spin-induced modulations of the direct solar beam signals. These results are consistent with an overlying cloud of small NH3 ice particles (0.5-0.75 microns in radius) of optical depth 1.5-2 at 0.5 microns. Such a cloud would have so little effect on thermal fluxes that NFR thermal channels provide no additional constraints on its properties. However, evidence for heating near 0.45 bar in the NFR thermal channels would seem to require either an additional opacity source beyond this small-particle cloud, implying a heterogeneous-cloud structure to avoid conflicts with solar modulation results, or a change in temperature lapse rate just above the probe measurements. The large thermal flux levels imply water vapor mixing ratios that are only 6% of solar at 10 bars, but possibly increasing with depth, and significantly subsaturated ammonia at pressures less than 3 bars. If deep NH3 mixing ratios at the probe entry site are 3-4 times ground-based inferences, as suggested by probe radio signal attenuation, then only half as much water is needed to match NFR observations. No evidence of a water cloud was seen near the 5-bar level. The 5 microns thermal channel detected the presumed NH4SH cloud base near 1.35 bars. Effects of this cloud were also seen in the solar channel upflux measurements but not in the solar net fluxes, implying that the cloud is a conservative scatterer of sunlight. The minor thermal signature of this cloud is compatible with particle radii near 3 microns, but it cannot rule out smaller particles. Deeper than about 3 bars, solar channels indicate unexpectedly large absorption of sunlight at wavelengths longer than 0.6 microns, which might be due to unaccounted-for absorption by NH3 between 0.65 and 1.5 microns.

Sromovsky, L. A.↗

The Scientific Impact of the GHRS on our Understanding of the Local Interstellar Medium

A high-resolution echelle grating and low-noise Digicon detectors make the GHRS an excellent instrument for studying ultraviolet absorption lines formed in the local interstellar medium (LISM). The GHRS has observed interstellar gas absorption along several dozen fines of sight toward stars; many of these stars are located within 100 pc of the Sun and thus sample the LISM properties quite well. We will summarize how the analysis of these beautiful echelle spectra permit us to study four important but closely interrelated topics about the LISM: (1) the dynamics and structure of the warm interstellar clouds, (2) the temperature, density, and other physical properties of the gas, (3) the chemical composition and chemical depletions in the gas phase, and (4) the interaction of the interstellar gas with the ionized hot winds of the Sun and other stars.

Linsky, Jeffrey L.↗

A Comparison of Cumulus Parameterizations in Idealized Sea-Breeze Simulations

Four cumulus parameterizations in the Penn State-NCAR model MM5 are compared in idealized sea-breeze simulations, with the aim of discovering why they work as they do. The most realistic results appear to be those using the Kain-Fritsch scheme. Rainfall is significantly delayed with the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme, due to the method of computing the reference sounding. This method can be corrected, but downdrafts should be added in a physically realistic manner. Even without downdrafts, a corrected version of the BMJ scheme produces nearly the same timing and location of deep convection as the KF scheme, despite the very different physics. In order to simulate the correct timing of the rainfall, a minimum amount of mass is required in the layer that is the source of a parameterized updraft. The Grell parameterization, in the present simulation, always derives the updraft from the top of the mixed layer, where vertical advection predominates over horizontal advection in increasing the moist static energy. This makes the application of the quasi-equilibrium closure more correct than it would be if the updrafts were always derived from the most unstable layer, but it evades the question of whether or not horizontal advection generates instability. Using different physics, the parameterizations produce significantly different cloud-top heights.

Cohen, Charles↗