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NASA NTRS1997

Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling: An Earth Systems Modelling Program

The Goal of the GAIM is: To advance the study of the coupled dynamics of the Earth system using as tools both data and models; to develop a strategy for the rapid development, evaluation, and application of comprehensive prognostic models of the Global Biogeochemical Subsystem which could eventually be linked with models of the Physical-Climate Subsystem; to propose, promote, and facilitate experiments with existing models or by linking subcomponent models, especially those associated with IGBP Core Projects and with WCRP efforts. Such experiments would be focused upon resolving interface issues and questions associated with developing an understanding of the prognostic behavior of key processes; to clarify key scientific issues facing the development of Global Biogeochemical Models and the coupling of these models to General Circulation Models; to assist the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process by conducting timely studies that focus upon elucidating important unresolved scientific issues associated with the changing biogeochemical cycles of the planet and upon the role of the biosphere in the physical-climate subsystem, particularly its role in the global hydrological cycle; and to advise the SC-IGBP on progress in developing comprehensive Global Biogeochemical Models and to maintain scientific liaison with the WCRP Steering Group on Global Climate Modelling.

Moore, Berrien, III↗

NASA NTRS2011

An Algorithm for the Retrieval of 30-m Snow-Free Albedo from Landsat Surface Reflectance and MODIS BRDF

We present a new methodology to generate 30-m resolution land surface albedo using Landsat surface reflectance and anisotropy information from concurrent MODIS 500-m observations. Albedo information at fine spatial resolution is particularly useful for quantifying climate impacts associated with land use change and ecosystem disturbance. The derived white-sky and black-sky spectral albedos maybe used to estimate actual spectral albedos by taking into account the proportion of direct and diffuse solar radiation arriving at the ground. A further spectral-to-broadband conversion based on extensive radiative transfer simulations is applied to produce the broadband albedos at visible, near infrared, and shortwave regimes. The accuracy of this approach has been evaluated using 270 Landsat scenes covering six field stations supported by the SURFace RADiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM/SGP) network. Comparison with field measurements shows that Landsat 30-m snow-free shortwave albedos from all seasons generally achieve an absolute accuracy of +/-0.02 - 0.05 for these validation sites during available clear days in 2003-2005,with a root mean square error less than 0.03 and a bias less than 0.02. This level of accuracy has been regarded as sufficient for driving global and regional climate models. The Landsat-based retrievals have also been compared to the operational 16-day MODIS albedo produced every 8-days from MODIS on Terra and Aqua (MCD43A). The Landsat albedo provides more detailed landscape texture, and achieves better agreement (correlation and dynamic range) with in-situ data at the validation stations, particularly when the stations include a heterogeneous mix of surface covers.

Shuai, Yanmin↗

NASA NTRS2013

Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Primary Production at a Global Scale

We used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of four phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. First, we assessed the contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production at a global scale for the period 1998-2011. Globally, diatoms contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production ((is)approximately 50%, the equivalent of 20 PgC·y1). Coccolithophores and chlorophytes each contributed approximately 20% ((is) approximately 7 PgC·y1) of the total primary production and cyanobacteria represented about 10% ((is) approximately 4 PgC·y1) of the total primary production. Primary production by diatoms was highest in the high latitudes ((is) greater than 40 deg) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We then assessed interannual variability of this group-specific primary production over the period 1998-2011. Globally the annual relative contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production varied by maximum 4% (1-2 PgC·y1). We assessed the effects of climate variability on group-specific primary production using global (i.e., Multivariate El Niño Index, MEI) and "regional" climate indices (e.g., Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability as indicated by significant correlation (p (is) less than 0.05) between the MEI and the group-specific primary production from all groups except coccolithophores. In the Atlantic, climate variability as indicated by NAO was significantly correlated to the primary production of 2 out of the 4 groups in the North Central Atlantic (diatoms/cyanobacteria) and in the North Atlantic (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). We found that climate variability as indicated by SAM had only a limited effect on group-specific primary production in the Southern Ocean. These results provide a modeling and data assimilation perspective to phytoplankton partitioning of primary production and contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of the carbon cycle in the oceans at a global scale.

Coccolithophores↗

NASA NTRS2022

Dynamical Perturbation of the Stratosphere by a Pyrocumulonimbus Injection of Carbonaceous Aerosols

The Pacific Northwest pyrocumulonimbus Event (PNE) took place in British Columbia during the evening and night-time hours between the 12th and 13th of August 2017. Several pyroconvective clouds erupted in this occasion, and released in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere unprecedented amounts of carbonaceous aerosols (300 ktn). Only a few years later, an even larger pyroCb injection took place over Australia. This event, named the Australian New Year (ANY) event, injected up to 1100 ktn of aerosol between December 29th 2019 and January 4th 2020. Such large injections of carbonaceous aerosol modify the stratospheric radiative budgets, locally perturbing stratospheric temperatures and winds. In this study, we use the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOS CCM) to study the pertubations on the stratospheric meteorology induced by an aerosol injection of the magnitude of the PNE. Our simulations include the radiative interactions of aerosols, so that their impact on temperatures and winds are explicitly simulated. We show how the presence of the carbonaceous aerosols from the pyroCb causes the formation and maintenance of a synoptic scale stratospheric anticyclone. We follow this disturbance considering the potential vorticity anomaly and the brown carbon aerosol loading and we describe its dynamical and thermodynamical structure and its evolution in time. The analysis presented here shows that the simulated anticyclone undergoes daily expansion-compression cycles governed by the radiative heating, which are directly related to the vertical motion of the plume, and that the aerosol radiative heating is essential in maintaining the anticyclone itself.

Pyrocumulonimbus↗

NASA NTRS2006

Weather from the Stratosphere?

Is the stratosphere, the atmospheric layer between about 10 and 50 km, important for predicting changes in weather and climate? The traditional view is that the stratosphere is a passive recipient of energy and waves from weather systems in the underlying troposphere, but recent evidence suggests otherwise. At a workshop in Whistler, British Columbia (1), scientists met to discuss how the stratosphere responds to forcing from below, initiating feedback processes that in turn alter weather patterns in the troposphere. The lowest layer of the atmosphere, the troposphere, is highly dynamic and rich in water vapor, clouds, and weather. The stratosphere above it is less dense and less turbulent (see the figure). Variability in the stratosphere is dominated by hemispheric-scale changes in airflow on time scales of a week to several months. Occasionally, however, stratospheric air flow changes dramatically within just a day or two, with large-scale jumps in temperature of 20 K or more. The troposphere influences the stratosphere mainly through atmospheric waves that propagate upward. Recent evidence shows that the stratosphere organizes this chaotic wave forcing from below to create long-lived changes in the stratospheric circulation. These stratospheric changes can feed back to affect weather and climate in the troposphere.

Baldwin, Mark P.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Influence of Heat Flow from the Planetary Interior on Surface Habitability

an primordial and/or radiogenic heat flow from a rocky planet’s interior help maintain a surface environment amenable to life?On rocky Earth-like planets with shallow oceans (≤5 km depth) that are on the outer edge of the habitable zone, the additional energy provided might make the difference between a world supporting regional habitat space and a world uninhabitable by any known life-form. To test this hypothesis, we introduce heat flux from the planetary interior as a forcing to the NASA/GISSROCKE-3D exoplanet GCM, and explore whether it can enhance the habitability of marginal terrestrial rocky planets (e.g.,paleo Earth in a “snowball” climate state).GCM simulations of modern Earth have not included geothermal heat flux as a climate forcing, as it is more than an order of magnitude less than the 2.9 W/m heating caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases [Flanner, GRL 2009]. Modern Earth measurements in the oceans [Downes et al., GRL 2019] and results from ocean GCMs [Barnes et al., Ocean Model. 2017]suggest that localized higher heat flux can have measurable thermodynamic and dynamic impacts, such as weakening deep ocean stratification and increased poleward ocean heat transports. A similar result with ROCKE-3D would be important, since our snowball Earth simulations without heat flux produce features like ocean stratification that should have hampered the survival of life. We have created a set of spatially variable geothermal heat fluxes at varying horizontal resolutions based on modern Earth heat flow patterns [Davies, Geochem. Geophys. Geosys. 2013] to test the sensitivity of the ROCKE-3D GCM initially in a modern Earth context. Preliminary results show that even modest heat fluxes have a measurable impact on deep ocean temperatures (upto +0.9°C locally) and that this heat can be transported at depth along ocean circulation paths. Estimates of heat flux impacts on vertical ocean mixing and surface ocean conditions require long simulations at the higher spatial resolutions needed to express heat flow at the scale of most ocean ridges. Ongoing simulations are focused on testing the impacts of horizontal resolution and flux scaling on surface environments, especially for “snowball” climate scenarios.

Heat flow↗

NASA NTRS1984

Earth Observing System. Volume 1, Part 2: Science and Mission Requirements. Working Group Report Appendix

The Earth Observing System (EOS) is a planned NASA program, which will carry out multidisciplinary Earth science studies employing a variety of remote sensing techniques in the 1990's, as a prime mission, using the Space Station polar platform. Its primary goal is the generation of long term Earth science data sets of measurements and processes in the areas of agriculture, forestry, geology, hydrology, oceanography, snow and ice, troposphere and upper atmospheric chemistry, radiation and dynamics pertaining to global studies of Earth as a system, emphasizing the interactions and couplings of the atmospbere-ocean-land-cryosphere system. These results will provide the information needed to qualify our understanding of the global hydrological cycle, global biogeochemical cycles and global climate processes. This report provides the science rationale, recommended observational needs, the broad system configuration and a recommended implementation strategy to achieve the stated mission goals. The report is one volume of a proposed five volume set constituting the Phase A report as the Earth Observing System (EOS).

Goddard Space Flight Center↗

NASA NTRS1999

Selecting Meteorological Input for the Global Modeling Initiative Assessments

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) science team has developed a three dimensional chemistry and transport model (CTM) to evaluate the impact of the exhaust of supersonic aircraft on the stratosphere. An important goal of the GMI is to test modules for numerical transport, photochemical integration, and model dynamics within a common framework. This work is focussed on the dependence of the overall assessment on the wind and temperature fields used by the CTM. Three meteorological data sets for the stratosphere were available to GMI: the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2), the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS), and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GISS-2'). Objective criteria were established by the GMI team to evaluate which of these three data sets provided the best representation of trace gases in the stratosphere today. Tracer experiments were devised to test various aspects of model transport. Stratospheric measurements of long-lived trace gases were selected as a test of the CTM transport. This presentation describes the criteria used in grading the meteorological fields and the resulting choice of wind fields to be used in the GMI assessment. This type of objective model evaluation will lead to a higher level of confidence in these assessments. We suggest that the diagnostic tests shown here be used to augment traditional general circulation model evaluation methods.

Strahan, Susan↗

NASA NTRS1999

Rainfall Estimates from the TMI and the SSM/I

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), which is a joint Japan-U.S. Earth observing satellite, has been successfully launched from Japan on November 27, 1997. The main purpose of the TRMM is to measure quantitatively rainfall over the tropics for the research of climate and weather. One of three rainfall measuring instruments abroad the TRMM is the high resolution TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI). The TMI instrument is essentially the copy of the SSM/I with a dual-polarized pair of 10.7 GHz channels added to increase the dynamic range of rainfall estimates. In addition, the 21.3 GHz water vapor absorption channel is designed in the TMI as opposed to the 22.235 GHz in the SSM/I to avoid saturation in the tropics. This paper will present instantaneous rain rates estimated from the coincident TMI and SSM/I observations. The algorithm for estimating instantaneous rainfall rates from both sensors is the Goddard Profiling algorithm (Gprof). The Gprof algorithm is a physically based, multichannel rainfall retrieval algorithm, The algorithm is very portable and can be used for various sensors with different channels and resolutions. The comparison of rain rates estimated from TMI and SSM/I on the same rain regions will be performed. The results from the comparison and the insight of tile retrieval algorithm will be given.

Hong, Ye↗

NASA NTRS2014

Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Class-Specific Primary Production at a Global Scale

We used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of 4 phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. First we assessed the contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production at a global scale for the period 1998-2011. Globally, diatoms were the group that contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production (50, the equivalent of 20 PgC y-1. Coccolithophores and chlorophytes each contributed to 20 (7 PgC y-1 of the total primary production and cyanobacteria represented about 10 (4 PgC y(sub-1) of the total primary production. Primary production by diatoms was highest in high latitude (45) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We then assessed interannual variability of this group-specific primary production over the period 1998-2011. Globally the annual relative contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production varied by maximum 4 (1-2 PgC y-1. We assessed the effects of climate variability on the class-specific primary production using global (i.e. Multivariate El Nio Index, MEI) and regional climate indices (e.g. Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability as indicated by significant correlation (p 0.05) between the MEI and the class-specific primary production from all groups except coccolithophores. In the Atlantic, climate variability as indicated by NAO was significantly correlated to the primary production of 2 out of the 4 groups in the North Central Atlantic (diatomscyanobacteria) and in the North Atlantic (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). We found that climate variability as indicated by SAM had only a limited effect on the class-specific primary production in the Southern Ocean. These results provide a modeling and data assimilation perspective to phytoplankton partitioning of primary production and contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of the carbon cycle in the oceans at a global scale.

Chl-a↗

NASA NTRS2016

Exploring Climatology and Long-Term Variations of Aerosols from NASA Reanalysis MERRA-2 with Giovanni

Dust plays important roles in energy cycle and climate variations. The dust deposition is the major source of iron in the open ocean, which is an essential micronutrient for phytoplankton growth and therefore may influence the ocean uptake of atmospheric CO2. Mineral dust can also act as fertilizer for forests over long time periods. Over 35 years of simulated global aerosol products from NASA atmospheric reanalysis, second Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) are available from NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). The MERRA-2 covers the period 1980-present, continuing as an ongoing climate analysis. Aerosol assimilation is included throughout the period, using MODIS, MISR, AERONET, and AVHRR (in the pre-EOS period). The aerosols are assimilated by using MERRA-2 aerosol model, which interact directly with the radiation parameterization, and radiatively coupled with atmospheric model dynamics in the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5). Dust deposition data along with other major aerosol compositions (e.g. black carbon, sea salt, and sulfate, etc.) are simulated as dry and wet deposition, respectively. The hourly and monthly data are available at spatial resolution of 0.5ox0.625o (latitude x longitude). Quick data exploration of climatology and interannual variations of MERRA-2 aerosol can be done through the online visualization and analysis tool, Giovanni. This presentation, using dust deposition as an example, demonstrates a number of MERRA-2 data services at GES DISC. Global distributions of dust depositions, and their seasonal and inter-annual variations are investigated from MERRA-2 monthly aerosol products.

data services↗

NASA NTRS2020

AWARE: The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment

The US Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) performed comprehensive meteorological and aerosol measurements, and ground-based atmospheric remote sensing at two Antarctic stations using the most advanced instrumentation available. A suite of cloud research radars, lidars, spectral and broadband radiometers, aerosol chemical and microphysical sampling equipment, and meteorological instrumentation was deployed at McMurdo Station on Ross Island from December 2015 through December 2016. A smaller suite of radiometers and meteorological equipment including radiosondes, optimized for surface energy budget measurement, was deployed on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet between 4 December 2015 and 17 January 2016. AWARE provided Antarctic atmospheric data comparable to several well-instrumented high Arctic sites that have operated for many years and that reveal numerous contrasts with the Arctic in aerosol and cloud microphysical properties. These include persistent differences in liquid cloud occurrence, cloud height and cloud thickness. Antarctic aerosol properties are also quite different from the Arctic in both seasonal cycle and composition, due to the continent’s isolation from lower latitudes by Southern Ocean storm tracks. Antarctic aerosol number and mass concentrations are not only non-negligible but perhaps play a more important role than previously recognized because of the higher sensitivities of clouds at the very low concentrations caused by the large-scale dynamical isolation. Antarctic aerosol chemical composition, particularly organic components, has implications for local cloud microphysics. The AWARE data set, fully available online in the ARM Program data archive, offers numerous case studies for unique and rigorous evaluation of mixed-phase cloud parameterization in climate models.

Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)↗

NASA NTRS2024

Platte River Basin Water Resources II: Predicting Land Cover Change in the Platte River Basin to Select Wetland Protection Sites Vulnerable to Urban Encroachment

The Platte River Basin (PRB) represents a critical dynamic ecosystem where wetlands play a pivotal role as essential habitats for local and migratory birds, as well as various flora and fauna. It also provides many crucial ecosystem services that directly and indirectly benefit human welfare. However, it is threatened by anthropogenic activity, climate change, and urbanization. Our team partnered with Audubon Great Plains, the regional office of a national non-profit organization (NGO), to analyze the future potential development of the region and its potential impact on the wetlands. We utilized remotely sensed data, such as Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Suomi National Polar Orbiting Partnership (NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), as well as NASA Socioeconomic Data and Application Center (SEDAC) data, to simulate urban growth potential up to 2050 using the open-source model FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) model. Our results for two proposed scenarios (all wetlands are protected, and no wetlands are protected) revealed that at least 56 counties out of 81 in the PRB would experience growth by the year 2050. The results for the first scenario show that there will be no loss of wetlands in the future. However, the results for the second scenario indicate a basin-wide reduction of 43.22 square kilometers (0.58%) in wetland areas, leading to a significant loss of bird habitat, critical for conservation. The results will help Audubon Great Plains' Urban Woods and Prairies Initiative to lead awareness workshops for communities about wetland protection and to form impactful conservation strategies.

FUTURES↗

NASA NTRS1989

Perennially ice-covered Lake Hoare, Antarctica: physical environment, biology and sedimentation

Lake Hoare (77 degrees 38' S, 162 degrees 53' E) is a perennially ice-covered lake at the eastern end of Taylor Valley in southern Victoria Land, Antarctica. The environment of this lake is controlled by the relatively thick ice cover (3-5 m) which eliminates wind generated currents, restricts gas exchange and sediment deposition, and reduces light penetration. The ice cover is in turn largely controlled by the extreme seasonality of Antarctica and local climate. Lake Hoare and other dry valley lakes may be sensitive indicators of short term (< 100 yr) climatic and/or anthropogenic changes in the dry valleys since the onset of intensive exploration over 30 years ago. The time constants for turnover of the water column and lake ice are 50 and 10 years, respectively. The turnover time for atmospheric gases in the lake is 30-60 years. Therefore, the lake environment responds to changes on a 10-100 year timescale. Because the ice cover has a controlling influence on the lake (e.g. light penetration, gas content of water, and sediment deposition), it is probable that small changes in ice ablation, sediment loading on the ice cover, or glacial meltwater (or groundwater) inflow will affect ice cover dynamics and will have a major impact on the lake environment and biota.

NASA Discipline Number 52-50↗

NASA NTRS1990

Moisture and heat budgets of a cirrus cloud from aircraft measurements during FIRE

Increasing knowledge of cirrus cloud properties can contribute to general circulation model development and ultimately to a better understanding of climate. The objective was to gain a better understanding of cirrus cloud characteristics. Observations from different sensors during the First ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Program) Regional Experiment (FIRE) which took place in Wisconsin over Oshkosh together with pertinent calculations are used to understand the dynamical, microphysical, and radiative characteristics of these clouds.

Gultepe, Ismail↗

NASA NTRS2018

The Effects of Vegetative Type, Edges, Fire History, Rainfall and Management in Fire-Maintained Habitat

The combined effects of fire history, climate, and landscape features (e.g., edges) on habitat specialists need greater focus in fire ecology studies, which usually only emphasize characteristics of the most recent fire. Florida scrub-jays are an imperiled, territorial species that prefer medium (1.2-1.7 m) shrub heights, which are dynamic because of frequent fires. We measured short, medium, and tall habitat quality states annually within 10 ha grid cells (that represented potential territories) because fires and vegetative recovery cause annual variation in habitat quality. We used multistate models and model selection to test competing hypotheses about how transition probabilities vary between states as functions of environmental covariates. Covariates included vegetative type, edges (e.g., roads, forests), precipitation, openings (gaps between shrubs), mechanical cutting, and fire characteristics. Fire characteristics not only included an annual presence/absence of fire covariate, but also fire history covariates: time since the previous fire, the longest fire-free interval, and the number of repeated fires. Statistical models with support included many covariates for each transition probability, often including fire history, interactions and nonlinear relationships. Tall territories resulted from 28 years of fire suppression and habitat fragmentation that reduced the spread of fires across landscapes. Despite 35 years of habitat restoration and prescribed fires, half the territories remained tall suggesting a regime shift to a less desirable habitat condition. Edges reduced the effectiveness of fires in setting degraded scrub and flatwoods into earlier successional states making mechanical cutting an important tool to compliment frequent prescribed fires.

Breininger, David R.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Global Total Ozone Recovery Trends Attributed to Ozone-Depleting Substance (ODS) Changes Derived From Five Merged Ozone Datasets

We report on updated trends using different merged zonal mean total ozone datasets from satellite and ground-based observations for the period from 1979 to 2020. This work is an update of the trends reported in Weber et al. (2018) using the same datasets up to 2016. Merged datasets used in this study include NASA MOD v8.7 and NOAA Cohesive Data (COH) v8.6, both based on data from the series of Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV), SBUV-2, and Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) satellite instruments (1978–present), as well as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)-type Total Ozone – Essential Climate Variable (GTO-ECV) and GOME-SCIAMACHY-GOME-2 (GSG) merged datasets (both 1995–present), mainly comprising satellite data from GOME, SCIAMACHY, OMI, GOME-2A, GOME-2B, and TROPOMI. The fifth dataset consists of the annual mean zonal mean data from ground-based measurements collected at the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC). Trends were determined by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) to annual mean zonal mean data. The addition of 4 more years consolidated the fact that total ozone is indeed slowly recovering in both hemispheres as a result of phasing out ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) as mandated by the Montreal Protocol. The near-global (60° S–60° N) ODS-related ozone trend of the median of all datasets after 1995 was 0.4 ± 0.2 (2σ) %/decade, which is roughly a third of the decreasing rate of 1.5 ± 0.6 %/decade from 1978 until 1995. The ratio of decline and increase is nearly identical to that of the EESC (equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine or stratospheric halogen) change rates before and after 1995, confirming the success of the Montreal Protocol. The observed total ozone time series are also in very good agreement with the median of 17 chemistry climate models from CCMI-1 (Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative Phase 1) with current ODS and GHG (greenhouse gas) scenarios (REF-C2 scenario). The positive ODS-related trends in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) after 1995 are only obtained with a sufficient number of terms in the MLR accounting properly for dynamical ozone changes (Brewer–Dobson circulation, Arctic Oscillation (AO), and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO)). A standard MLR (limited to solar, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), volcanic, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) leads to zero trends, showing that the small positive ODS-related trends have been balanced by negative trend contributions from atmospheric dynamics, resulting in nearly constant total ozone levels since 2000.

Total Column Ozone Trends↗

NASA NTRS2010

Mixed Layer Sub-Mesoscale Parameterization - Part 1: Derivation and Assessment

Several studies have shown that sub-mesoscales (SM 1km horizontal scale) play an important role in mixed layer dynamics. In particular, high resolution simulations have shown that in the case of strong down-front wind, the re-stratification induced by the SM is of the same order of the de-stratification induced by small scale turbulence, as well as of that induced by the Ekman velocity. These studies have further concluded that it has become necessary to include SM in ocean global circulation models (OGCMs), especially those used in climate studies. The goal of our work is to derive and assess an analytic parameterization of the vertical tracer flux under baroclinic instabilities and wind of arbitrary directions and strength. To achieve this goal, we have divided the problem into two parts: first, in this work we derive and assess a parameterization of the SM vertical flux of an arbitrary tracer for ocean codes that resolve mesoscales, M, but not sub-mesoscales, SM. In Part 2, presented elsewhere, we have used the results of this work to derive a parameterization of SM fluxes for ocean codes that do not resolve either M or SM. To carry out the first part of our work, we solve the SM dynamic equations including the non-linear terms for which we employ a closure developed and assessed in previous work. We present a detailed analysis for down-front and up-front winds with the following results: (a) down-front wind (blowing in the direction of the surface geostrophic velocity) is the most favorable condition for generating vigorous SM eddies; the de-stratifying effect of the mean flow and re-stratifying effect of SM almost cancel each other out,

Canuto, V. M.↗