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DOE OSTI2019

On the Use of NLDAS2 Weather Data for Hydrologic Modeling in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Weather data are the key forces that drive hydrological processes so that their accuracy in watershed modeling is fundamentally important. For large-scale watershed modeling, weather data are either generated by using interpolation methods or derived from assimilated datasets. In the present study, we compared model performances of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), as driven by interpolation weather data, and NASA North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase Two (NLDAS2) weather dataset in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). The SWAT model fed with different weather datasets were used to simulate monthly stream flow at 11 United States Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring stations in the UMRB. Model performances were evaluated based on three metrics: coefficient of determination (R 2 ), Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NS), and percent bias (P bias ). The results show that, after calibration, the SWAT model compared well at all monitoring stations for monthly stream flow using different weather datasets indicating that the SWAT model can adequately produce long-term water yield in UMRB. The results also show that using NLDAS2 weather dataset can improve SWAT prediction of monthly stream flow with less prediction uncertainty in the UMRB. We concluded that NLDAS2 dataset could be used by the SWAT model for large-scale watersheds like UMRB as a surrogate of the interpolation weather data. Further analyses results show that NLDAS2 daily solar radiation data was about 2.5 MJ m -2 higher than the interpolation data. As such, the SWAT model driven by NLDAS2 dataset tended to underestimate stream flow in the UMRB due to the overestimation in evapotranspiration in uncalibrated conditions. Thus, the implication of overestimated solar radiation by NLDAS2 dataset should be considered before using NLDAS2 dataset to drive the hydrological model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Strategic roadmap to assess forest vulnerability under air pollution and climate change

Abstract Although it is an integral part of global change, most of the research addressing the effects of climate change on forests have overlooked the role of environmental pollution. Similarly, most studies investigating the effects of air pollutants on forests have generally neglected the impacts of climate change. We review the current knowledge on combined air pollution and climate change effects on global forest ecosystems and identify several key research priorities as a roadmap for the future. Specifically, we recommend (1) the establishment of much denser array of monitoring sites, particularly in the South Hemisphere; (2) further integration of ground and satellite monitoring; (3) generation of flux‐based standards and critical levels taking into account the sensitivity of dominant forest tree species; (4) long‐term monitoring of N, S, P cycles and base cations deposition together at global scale; (5) intensification of experimental studies, addressing the combined effects of different abiotic factors on forests by assuring a better representation of taxonomic and functional diversity across the ~73,000 tree species on Earth; (6) more experimental focus on phenomics and genomics; (7) improved knowledge on key processes regulating the dynamics of radionuclides in forest systems; and (8) development of models integrating air pollution and climate change data from long‐term monitoring programs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1997

Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) Data Sets for Global Environment and Climate Change Studies

For a number of years there has been considerable interest in the earth's radiation budget (ERB) or energy balance, and entails making the best measurements possible of absorbed solar radiation, reflected shortwave radiation (RSW), thermal outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and net radiation. ERB data are fundamental to the development of realistic climate models and studying natural and anthropogenic perturbations of the climate. Much of the interest and investigations in the earth's energy balance predated the age of earth-orbiting satellites (Hunt et al., 1986). Beginning in the mid 1960's earth-orbiting satellites began to play an important role in making measurements of the earth's radiation flux although much effort had gone into measuring ERB parameters prior to 1960 (House et al., 1986). Beginning in 1974 and extending until the present time, three different satellite experiments (not all operating at the same time) have been making radiation budget measurements almost continually in time. Two of the experiments were totally dedicated to making radiation budget measurements of the earth, and the other experiment flown on NOAA sun-synchronous AVHRR weather satellites produced radiation budget parameters as a by-product. The heat budget data from the AVHRR satellites began collecting data in June 1974 and have operated almost continuously for 23 years producing valuable data for long term climate monitoring.

Bess, T. Dale↗

DOE OSTI2019

Predicting the climate change impacts on water-carbon coupling cycles for a loess hilly-gully watershed

Understanding the climate change impacts on water and carbon cycles is of great importance for comprehensive watershed management. Although many studies have been conducted on the future climate change impacts on either water cycle or carbon cycle, the potential impacts on water-carbon coupling cycles are still poorly understood. Here we used an integrated hydro-biochemical model (SWAT-DayCent) to quantitatively investigate the climate change impacts on water-carbon coupling cycles with a case study of typical loess hilly-gully watershed-the Jinghe River Basin (JRB) on the Loess Plateau. We used climate scenarios data derived under the three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) by five downscaled Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and set two future periods of 2020–2049 (near future, NF) and 2070–2099 (far future, FF). It was projected that the annual precipitation would generally decrease slightly during the NF period but increase by 4–11% during the FF period, while the maximum/minimum air temperatures would increase significantly. The average annual streamflow would decrease (with up to 20.1% under RCP8.5) and evapotranspiration (ET) would remain almost unchanged during the NF period; however, both of them would increase during the FF period. The net primary production (NPP) would be generally higher due to the CO2 fertilization, whereas the soil organic carbon would decrease across all scenarios due to the warmer climate. The NPP-ET was projected to be closely coupled across all scenarios, and this coupling was mainly controlled by the inter-annual variability (IAV) of precipitation. Moreover, the precipitation IAV combined with NPP-ET coupling could also jointly control the NPP variability in the JRB. These projections in water-carbon coupling cycles can be useful to make better-informed decisions for future water resources and ecosystem management of the loess hilly-gully regions.

climate change↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing Resilience of Urban Systems Against Climate-Induced Floods Using Advanced Data-Driven and Computing Techniques: A Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) Framework

Focal Area: This white paper proposes advanced data-driven and computing techniques to improve the predictability of extreme climate events (precipitation) and focuses on comprehending their impact dynamics to enhance resilience of urban systems. Science Challenge: In urban systems, climate change has presented significant challenges related to accurate spatiotemporal prediction of extreme climate events (heavy precipitation) and their impacts, i.e. flooding. The occurrence of extreme climate events and their compounding repercussions on the built environment make urban systems increasingly more vulnerable. The interactions between extreme climate events, urban systems, and the corresponding impacts are irregular, non-linear, and dynamic, making it difficult to standardize resilience. As it stands, the management of complex urban systems is affected by uncertainties related to the nature of short- and long-term consequences caused by extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Operation and Maintenance of PV Systems: Data Science, Analysis, and Standards

This effort improves the effectiveness and reduce uncertainty in O&M cost through four primary objectives/tasks: 1) institutionalize standards for reliability and availability reporting for large PV power plants; 2) bridge systemic O&M knowledge gaps around important topics affecting O&M; 3) characterize systemic failure modes and patterns and accelerate O&M experiential learning cycles using field data; and 4) establish a baseline understanding of UPVS O&M cost drivers. Key results of this effort include publication of IEC standards, published topical papers on O&M topics, training, and characterize field data for climate- and service-related patterns (additional details below). Integrating these results serves to reduce performance risk and facilitate improvement in the way solar projects are operated and maintained. Results are well received and two publications are among the most successful SETO publications at NREL ("Model of Operation and Maintenance Costs for Photovoltaic Systems with over 40,000 downloads and "Best Practices in Operation and Maintenance of PV Systems, 3rd Ed." with over 90,000 downloads).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA's CLARREO Pathfinder Mission: The Reflected Solar’s First SITSat

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) Pathfinder mission will take reflected solar (RS) highly accurate measurements needed to monitor Earth’s climate and will be the first RS SI-traceable Satellite Sensor (SITSat). The mission includes a RS spectrometer that will be installed on the International Space Station (ISS) and take measurements for at least one year. CLARREO Pathfinder (CPF) will use on-orbit calibration to achieve an unprecedented high accuracy with SI-traceability and the inter-calibration of other on-orbit instruments. The spectrometer is based on the HyperSpectral Imager for Climate Science (HySICS) instrument developed by the University of Colorado/Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics of Boulder, CO, USA. HySICS is being designed to have a radiometric uncertainty of 0.3% (1-sigma), a five to ten times improvement over existing spaceflight RS instruments. High accuracy SI-traceable measurements such as these are critical to develop long-term climate-quality data sets. Additionally, by measuring spectral reflectance with high accuracy the CPF instrument will serve as an on-orbit intercalibration radiometric reference for operational Earth-viewing sensors, such as the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) broadband shortwave instrument and the Visible/Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). Two-axis pointing, a spectral range from 350 nm to 2300 nm, and a spectral resolution ≤6 nm enable CPF to provide nearly coincident temporal, spatial, angular, and spectral matching of intercalibration targets, with sampling sufficient to reduce random errors. The intercalibration method will refine knowledge of target sensors’ effective offsets, gain, non-linearity, spectral response, and polarization sensitivity (as is relevant). Calibrated reflectance and reflected radiance spectra will be distributed to the scientific community through a NASA Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). We will present an overview of the CLARREO Pathfinder mission, its anticipated impact on monitoring climate variability, and the novel CPF direct intercalibration approach.

climate↗

DOE OSTI2021

Photovoltaic Data Acquisition (PVDAQ) Public Datasets

The NREL PVDAQ is a large-scale time-series database containing system metadata and performance data from a variety of experimental PV sites and commercial public PV sites. The datasets are used to perform on-going performance and degradation analysis. Some of the sets can exhibit common elements that effect PV performance (e.g. soiling). The dataset consists of a series of files devoted to each of the systems and an associated set of metadata information that explains details about the system hardware and the site geo-location. Some system datasets also include environmental sensors that cover irradiance, temperatures, wind speeds, and precipitation at the site.

Array↗

NASA NTRS1999

Mars Pathfinder Landing Site: Evidence for a Change in Wind Regime and Climate from Lander and Orbiter Data

Surface features related to the wind are observed in data from the Mars Pathfinder lander and from orbit by the Viking Orbiter and Mars Global Surveyor missions. Features seen from the surface include wind tails associated with small rocks, barchanoid duneforms, ripplelike patterns, and ventifact flutes cut into some rocks. Features seen from orbit include wind tails associated with impact craters, ridges inferred to be duneforms, and modified crater rims interpreted to have been eroded and mantled by windblown material. The orientations of these features show two prevailing directions, one inferred to represent winds from the northeast which is consistent with strongest winds predicted by a general circulation model to occur during the Martian northern winter under current conditions, and a second wind pattern oriented approx. 90 degrees to the first. This latter wind could be from the W-NW or from the E-SE and was responsible for cutting the ventifacts and modifying the crater rims. The two wind regimes could reflect a change in climate related to Mars' obliquity or some other, unknown factor. Regardless of the cause, the MPF area has been subjected to a complex pattern of winds and supply of small particles, in which the original surface formed by sedimentary processes from Tiu and Ares Vallis events has been modified by repeated burial and exhumation.

Greeley, R.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bundling measures for food systems transformation: a global, multimodel assessment

Background Current food systems leave one in ten individuals at risk of hunger while driving unsustainable environmental impacts. Inaction risks further exacerbating negative impacts on both human and planetary health. These challenges emerge from complex system interactions, requiring approaches that engage with this complexity and consider how transformation measures interact across food systems. We aimed to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty of the impacts of key food systems transformation measures both individually and in a bundle using an ensemble of global economic models. Methods In this global multimodel assessment, we applied an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art global economic models to evaluate the potential of four key measures in transforming food systems: increasing agricultural productivity, halving food loss and waste, shifting towards healthier diets, and economy-wide climate mitigation policies aligned with limiting warming to 1·5°C. The scenarios used a middle-of-the-road shared socioeconomic pathway for population and gross domestic product growth, climate impact data from Jägermeyr and colleagues, Thornton and colleagues, and Nelson and colleagues, and dietary targets based on the EAT–Lancet healthy reference diet, with model simulations conducted from 2020 to 2050. We then assessed the effect of these measures in isolation and in combination in a bundled scenario. To further understand the interactions between these measures, we conducted a decomposition analysis that distinguishes between the individual effects of a measure (effect when implemented alone), total effects (its contribution within the bundle), and interaction effects (the difference between total and individual effects). This approach aimed to show complementarities and trade-offs that emerge when multiple measures are implemented simultaneously. Findings Our analysis showed that individual measures in isolation are insufficient to achieve high-level environmental objectives and might generate unintended consequences. In contrast, bundling measures produces co-benefits: avoiding 50% of projected agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and almost 20% of anticipated land conversion, while moderating food price increases associated with ambitious climate change mitigation policies. Our decomposition analysis further shows that measures can have varying effects across different dimensions. Although dietary shifts and climate mitigation policies are the largest drivers of environmental benefits (each contributing to a median decline of >10 percentage points in non-CO 2 emissions and 5 percentage points in agricultural land use globally), productivity improvements and reducing food loss and waste play essential roles in moderating price increases (each contributing to a median decline of >5 percentage points in average prices). Interpretation This study highlights the importance of implementing coordinated approaches to food system transformation and climate change mitigation rather than relying on isolated interventions. Comprehensive transformation requires understanding how supply-side and demand-side changes can interact with climate mitigation policies, enabling policy makers to design intervention packages that maximise benefits while minimising trade-offs across environmental, economic, and social dimensions.

Sundiang, Marina [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (Unite↗

DOE OSTI2026

Inundation and Sediment Supply Predict Annual but Not Centennial Carbon Accumulation in Tidal Wetlands Across Land‐Use Types

Despite growing interest in the contributions of tidal wetlands to natural climate solutions, data remain scarce on how land use affects their carbon accumulation rates (CAR). Additionally, environmental factors driving the large observed variability in CAR among sites are poorly understood. To address these knowledge gaps, we measured short-term (∼1 year) and long-term (∼100 years) CAR using feldspar marker horizons, 210 Pb profiles, and surface elevation tables from 39 sites in seven estuaries in Oregon and Washington, USA. Sites varied in wetland type (tidal marsh, tidal swamp, nontidal pasture), land-use history (reference, restored, and disturbed), and salinity (fresh to polyhaline). Across both timescales, CAR was lowest in disturbed pastures and highest in restored marshes, reflecting patterns in sediment accretion rates. Short-term CAR exceeded long-term CAR by approximately 50% on average and was only weakly correlated with long-term CAR, with differences among hydrogeomorphic setting. Short-term CAR was well predicted by summer inundation frequency and relative sediment load, together explaining 60% of variance, whereas long-term CAR was poorly predicted by contemporary environmental conditions. These findings highlight the importance of aligning predictor and response timescales when modeling blue carbon dynamics, and reinforce the climate mitigation potential of tidal wetland restoration.

land use and land cover change↗

DOE OSTI2026

Automated, reliable, and efficient continental-scale replication of 7.3 petabytes of computational simulation data: A case study

We report on our experiences replicating 7.3 petabytes (PB) of Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) computational simulation data from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in California to Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) in Illinois and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in Tennessee—a task motivated by a need for increased reliability, capacity, and performance. This task presented significant challenges: the need to move 29 million files twice under time pressure from aging storage hardware; a source file system bottleneck limiting throughput to 1.5 GB/s; frequent site maintenance windows; and the need for complete reliability at scale. We addressed these challenges using a simple replication tool that invoked Globus to transfer large bundles of files while tracking progress in a database, dynamically rerouting transfers to work around maintenance periods and file system limitations. Under the covers, Globus organized transfers to make efficient use of the high-speed Energy Sciences network (ESnet) and the data transfer nodes deployed at participating sites, and also addressed security, integrity checking, and recovery from a variety of transient failures. This success demonstrates the considerable benefits that can accrue from the adoption of performant data replication infrastructure. The replication tool is available at https://github.com/esgf2-us/data-replication-tools.

Globus↗

DOE OSTI2025

Natural variation in growth and yield to waterlogging across climate-diverse pennycress accessions

Many winter annual crops, such as pennycress ( Thlaspi arvense L.), are subjected to heavy precipitation events during their growing season. Therefore, it is essential to identify pennycress accessions with natural variation in flooding resilience. We used climate modeling data to assess spring soil moisture levels in the geographic origins of 471 natural pennycress accessions. We selected 34 accessions with variation in predicted soil moisture and tested survivability under prolonged waterlogging at the rosette stage. It took seven weeks for the first accessions to die, indicating that pennycress is hardy to prolonged waterlogging at the vegetative stage. Furthermore, we chose ‘susceptible’ and ‘tolerant’ accessions to waterlog for one week at the reproductive stage, the growth stage aligned with spring rainfall. Six accessions had significantly reduced seed weight at maturity and two had minimal impacts on growth and seed yield after waterlogging and can be further explored for adaptive traits.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Role of Ocean and Atmosphere Variability in Scale-Dependent Thermodynamic Air-Sea Interactions

This study investigates the influence of oceanic and atmospheric processes in extratropical thermodynamic air-sea interactions resolved by satellite observations (OBS) and by two climate model simulations run with eddy-resolving high-resolution (HR) and eddy-parameterized low-resolution (LR) ocean components. Here, in this work, spectral methods are used to characterize the sea surface temperature (SST) and turbulent heat flux (THF) variability and co-variability over scales between 50 and 10,000 km and 60 days to 80 years in the Pacific Ocean. The relative roles of the ocean and atmosphere are interpreted using a stochastic upper-ocean temperature evolution model forced by noise terms representing intrinsic variability in each medium, defined using climate model data to produce realistic rather than white spectral power density distributions. The analysis of all datasets shows that the atmosphere dominates the SST and THF variability over zonal wavelengths larger than ~2,000–2,500 km. In HR and OBS, ocean processes dominate the variability of both quantities at scales smaller than the atmospheric first internal Rossby radius of deformation (R 1 , ~600–2,000 km) due to a substantial ocean forcing coinciding with a weaker atmospheric modulation of THF (and consequently of SST) than at larger scales. The ocean forcing also induces oscillations in SST and THF with periods ranging from intraseasonal to multidecadal, reflecting a red spectrum response to ocean forcing similar to that driven by atmospheric forcing. Such features are virtually absent in LR due to a weaker ocean forcing relative to HR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1982

Delineation of cold-prone areas using nighttime SMS/GOES thermal data Effects of soils and water

Infrared digital data from geostationary satellites were used to demonstrate the usefulness of remotely sensed surface temperature data to delineate microscale and mesoscale climates. Nocturnal winter data (December-February) from 1976-77 to 1978-79 over Florida revealed noticeable contrasts in surface temperature patterns. Colder areas were associated with low soil moisture content in the upper layers of excessively drained and well drained sandy soils, whereas warmer areas were associated with bodies of water, wetlands, or poorly drained soils. An unexpected surface temperature pattern for one night where the north-central Florida climatic zone was colder than the north Florida climatic zone was found to be caused by differences in antecedent frontal rainfall. Differences in surface radiant energy fluxes over these two areas at 0200 EST 20 December 1977, based on average satellite-sensed surface temperatures, were compared with differences in soil heat fluxes that were computed from 1.5 m climatological temperatures and soil thermal properties by use of a simplified surface energy balance equation.

Chen, E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Burning conditions and transportation pathways determine biomass-burning aerosol properties in the Ascension Island marine boundary layer

African biomass-burning aerosol (BBA) in the southeast Atlantic Ocean (SEA) marine boundary layer (MBL) is an important contributor to Earth’s radiation budget yet its representation remains poorly constrained in regional and global climate models. Data from the Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) field campaign on Ascension Island (-7.95° N, -14.36° E) detail how fire source regions (burning conditions and fuel type), transport pathways, and longer-term chemical processing affect the chemical, microphysical, and optical properties of the BBA in the remote MBL between June and September of 2017. Ten individual plume events characterize the seasonal evolution of BBA characteristics. Inefficient burning conditions, determined by the mass ratio of refractory black carbon to above-background carbon monoxide (rBC:ΔCO), enhance organic- and sulfate-rich aerosol concentrations in June–July. In contrast, the heart of the burning season exhibited higher rBC:ΔCO values indicative of efficient burning conditions, correlating with more rBC-enriched BBA. Toward the end of the burning season, a mix of burning conditions results in increased variation of the BBA properties. The BBA transit to Ascension Island was predominantly through slow-moving pathways in the MBL and lower free troposphere (FT), facilitating prolonged chemical transformations through heterogeneous and aqueous phase processes. Heterogeneous oxidation can persist for up to 10 days, resulting in a considerable decrease in organic aerosol (OA) mass. OA to rBC mass ratios (OA:rBC) in the MBL between 2 and 5 contrast to higher values of 5 to 15 observed in the nearby FT. Conversely, early-season aqueous-phase processes primarily contributed to aerosol oxidation and some aerosol production, but not appreciable aerosol removal. These two chemical processes yield more light-absorbing BBA in the MBL than in the FT and explain the notably low scattering albedo at 530 nm (SSA 530 ) values (< 0.80) at Ascension Island. This study establishes a robust correlation between SSA 530 and OA:rBC across both MBL and FT, underscoring the dependency of optical properties on chemical composition. These findings highlight how the interplay between chemical composition and atmospheric processing can be improved in global and regional climate models. Questions remain on the mixing of aerosols with different pathway histories, and on what accounts for the doubling of the mass absorption coefficient in the boundary layer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Relationships Between the Trends of Mean and Extreme Precipitation

This study provides a better understanding of the relationships between the trends of mean and extreme precipitation in two observed precipitation data sets: the Climate Prediction Center Unified daily precipitation data set and the Global Precipitation Climatology Program (GPCP) pentad data set. The study employs three kinds of definitions of extreme precipitation: (1) percentile, (2) standard deviation and (3) generalize extreme value (GEV) distribution analysis for extreme events based on local statistics. Relationship between trends in the mean and extreme precipitation is identified with a novel metric, i.e. area aggregated matching ratio (AAMR) computed on regional and global scales. Generally, more (less) extreme events are likely to occur in regions with a positive (negative) mean trend. The match between the mean and extreme trends deteriorates for increasingly heavy precipitation events. The AAMR is higher in regions with negative mean trends than in regions with positive mean trends, suggesting a higher likelihood of severe dry events, compared with heavy rain events in a warming climate. AAMR is found to be higher in tropics and oceans than in the extratropics and land regions, reflecting a higher degree of randomness and more important dynamical rather than thermodynamical contributions of extreme events in the latter regions.

global warming↗

NASA NTRS2012

Validation of the Radiometric Stability of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder

It has been widely accepted that an infrared sounder in low polar orbit is capable of producing climate quality data, if the spectral brightness temperatures have instrumental trends of less than 10 mK/yr. Achieving measurement stability at this level is not only very demanding of the design of the instrument, it is also pushes the state of art of measuring on orbit what stability is actually achieved. We discuss this using Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) L1B data collected between 2002 and 2011. We compare the L1B brightness temperature observed in cloud filtered night tropical ocean spectra (obs) to the brightness temperature calculated based on the known surface emissivity, temperature and water vapor profiles from the ECMWF ReAnalysis (ERA) and the growth rates of CO2, N2O and Ozone. The trend in (obs-calc) is a powerful tool for the evaluation of the stability of the 2378 AIRS channels. We divided the channels into seven classes: All channels which sound in the stratosphere (at pressure levels below 150 hPa), 14 micron CO2 sounding, 4 micron CO2 P-branch sounding, 4 micron CO2 R-branch sounding, water vapor sounding, shortwave surface sounding and longwave surface sounding. The peak in the weighting function at 1050 hPa separates sounding and surface channels. The boundary between shortwave and longwave is 5 microns. Except for the stratosphere sounding channels, the remaining six groups have (obs-calc) trends of less than 20 mK/yr. The longwave surface channels have trends of 2 mK/yr, significantly less than the 8 mK/yr trend seem in the shortwave window channels. Based on the design of the instrument, trends within a group of channels should be the same. While the longwave and shortwave trends are less than the canonical 10 mK/yr, the larger trend in the shortwave channels could be an artifact of using the pre-launch determined calibration coefficients. This is currently under evaluation. The trend in (obs-calc) for the non-surface sounding channels, in particular for stratosphere sounding and upper tropospheric water channels, is dominated by artifacts created in calc, most likely due to changes in the ERA Ozone and water vapor. Based on this argument the best estimate of the trend for the channels within a channel group is given by the surface sensitive channels within the group. Based on this consideration we estimated the trend of all AIRS longwave channels as 2 mK/yr, while the shortwave channels have a trend of 8 mK/yr.

CO2↗