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A Comparison of Density Functional Theory with Ab initio Approaches for Systems Involving First Transition Row Metals

Density functional theory (DFT) is found to give a better description of the geometries and vibrational frequencies of FeL and FeL(sup +) systems than second order Moller Plesset perturbation theory (MP2). Namely, the DFT correctly predicts the shift in the CO vibrational frequency between free CO and the Sigma(sup -) state of FeCO and yields a good result for the Fe-C distance in the quartet states of FeCH4(+) 4 These are properties where the MP2 results are unsatisfactory. Thus DFT appears to be an excellent approach for optimizing the geometries and computing the zero-point energies of systems containing first transition row atoms. Because the DFT approach is biased in favor of the 3d(exp 7) occupation, whereas the more traditional approaches are biased in favor of the 3d(exp 6) occupation, differences are found in the relative ordering of states. It is shown that if the dissociation is computed to the most appropriate atomic asymptote and corrected to the ground state asymptote using the experimental separations, the DFT results are in good agreement with high levels of theory. The energetics at the DFT level are much superior to the MP2 and in most cases in good agreement with high levels of theory.

Ricca, Alessandra↗

A bootstrapping approach to social media quantification

Abstract This work considers the use of classifiers in a downstream aggregation task estimating class proportions, such as estimating the percentage of reviews for a movie with positive sentiment. We derive the bias and variance of the class proportion estimator when taking classification error into account to determine how to best trade off different error types when tuning a classifier for these tasks. Additionally, we propose a method for constructing confidence intervals that correctly adjusts for classification error when estimating these statistics. We conduct experiments on four document classification tasks comparing our methods to prior approaches across classifier thresholds, sample sizes, and label distributions. Prior approaches have focused on providing the most accurate point estimate while this work focuses on the creation of correct confidence intervals that appropriately account for classifier error. Compared to the prior approaches, our methods provide lower error and more accurate confidence intervals.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Raccoon density estimation from camera traps for raccoon rabies management

Abstract Density estimation for unmarked animals is particularly challenging, yet density estimates are often necessary for effective wildlife management. Raccoons ( Procyon lotor ) are the primary terrestrial wildlife reservoir for Lyssavirus rabies within the United States. The raccoon rabies variant (RRVV) is actively managed at landscape scales using oral rabies vaccination (ORV) within the eastern United States. To effectively manage RRVV, it is important to know the density of raccoons to appropriately scale the density of ORV baits distributed on the landscape. We compared methods to estimate raccoon densities from camera‐trap data versus more intensive capture‐mark‐recapture (CMR) estimates across 2 land cover types (upland pine and bottomland hardwood) in the southeastern United States during 2019 and 2020. We evaluated the effect of alternative camera configurations and durations of camera trapping on density estimates and used an N‐mixture model to estimate raccoon densities, including covariates on abundance and detection. We further compared different methods of scaling camera‐based counts, with the maximum number of raccoons seen on any given image within a day best explaining density. Camera‐trap density estimates were moderately correlated with CMR estimates ( r = 0.56). However, densities from camera‐trap data were more reliable when classifying category of density as an index used to inform management (83% correct when compared to CMR estimates), although the densities in our study fell into the 2 lowest density classes only. Using more cameras reduced bias and uncertainty around density estimates; however, if ≤6 camera traps were used at a site, a line transect approach proved less biased than a grid design. Camera trapping should be conducted for at least 3 weeks for more accurate estimates of raccoon population density in our study area (<5% bias). We show that camera‐trap data can be used to assign raccoon densities to management‐relevant density index bins, but more studies are needed to ensure reliability across a greater range of environmental conditions and raccoon densities.

Davis, Amy J.↗

Major Revisions in Arthropod Phylogeny Through Improved Supermatrix, With Support for Two Possible Waves of Land Invasion by Chelicerates

Deep phylogeny involving arthropod lineages is difficult to recover because the erosion of phylogenetic signals over time leads to unreliable multiple sequence alignment (MSA) and subsequent phylogenetic reconstruction. One way to alleviate the problem is to assemble a large number of gene sequences to compensate for the weakness in each individual gene. Such an approach has led to many robustly supported but contradictory phylogenies. A close examination shows that the supermatrix approach often suffers from two shortcomings. The first is that MSA is rarely checked for reliability and, as will be illustrated, can be poor. The second is that, to alleviate the problem of homoplasy at the third codon position of protein-coding genes due to convergent evolution of nucleotide frequencies, phylogeneticists may remove or degenerate the third codon position but may do it improperly and introduce new biases. We performed extensive reanalysis of one of such “big data” sets to highlight these two problems, and demonstrated the power and benefits of correcting or alleviating these problems. Our results support a new group with Xiphosura and Arachnopulmonata (Tetrapulmonata + Scorpiones) as sister taxa. This favors a new hypothesis in which the ancestor of Xiphosura and the extinct Eurypterida (sea scorpions, of which many later forms lived in brackish or freshwater) returned to the sea after the initial chelicerate invasion of land. Our phylogeny is supported even with the original data but processed with a new “principled” codon degeneration. We also show that removing the 1673 codon sites with both AGN and UCN codons (encoding serine) in our alignment can partially reconcile discrepancies between nucleotide-based and AA-based tree, partly because two sequences, one with AGN and the other with UCN, would be identical at the amino acid level but quite different at the nucleotide level.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A hydrodynamic treatment of the cold dark matter cosmological scenario

The evolution of structure in a postrecombination Friedmann-Robertson-Walker universe containing both gaseous baryons and cold dark matter (CDM) is studied by means of an Eulerian code coupled with a standard particle-mesh code. Ionization state and radiative opacity are calculated in detail, and the hydrodynamic simulations make it possible to compute properties of gas distribution on scales larger than three cell sizes. The model yields a soft X-ray background consistent with the latest cosmic nucleosynthesis values, and can accurately reproduce the galaxy-galaxy two-point correlation. The rate of galaxy formation peaks at a relatively late epoch. With regard to mass function, the smallest objects are stabilized against collapse by thermal energy: the mass-weighted mass spectrum peaks in the vicinity of m(b) = 10 exp 9.2 solar masses with a reasonable fit to the Schecter luminosity function if the baryon mass to blue light ratio is approximately 4. Overall, the simulations provide strong support for the CMD scenario. Of particular interest is that, while the baryons are not biased on scales greater than 1/h Mpc, the galaxies are, and that the 'galaxies' have a correlation function of the required slope and the correct amplitude.

Cen, Renyue↗

Radiation Dry Bias of the Vaisala RS92 Humidity Sensor

The comparison of simultaneous humidity measurements by the Vaisala RS92 radiosonde and by the Cryogenic Frostpoint Hygrometer (CFH) launched at Alajuela, Cosla Rica, during July 2005 reveals a large solar radiation dry bias of the Vaisala RS92 humidity sensor and a minor temperature-dependent calibration error. For soundings launched at solar zenith angles between 10" and 30 , the average dry bias is on the order of 9% at the surface and increases to 50% at 15 km. A simple pressure- and temperature-dependent correction based on the comparison with the CFH can reduce this error to less than 7% at all altitudes up to 15.2 km, which is 700 m below the tropical tropopause. The correction does not depend on relative humidity, but is able to reproduce the relative humidity distribution observed by the CFH.

Vomel, H.↗

Case studies in bias reduction and inference for electronic health record data with selection bias and phenotype misclassification

Electronic health records (EHR) are not designed for population‐based research, but they provide easy and quick access to longitudinal health information for a large number of individuals. Many statistical methods have been proposed to account for selection bias, missing data, phenotyping errors, or other problems that arise in EHR data analysis. However, addressing multiple sources of bias simultaneously is challenging. We developed a methodological framework (R package, SAMBA ) for jointly handling both selection bias and phenotype misclassification in the EHR setting that leverages external data sources. These methods assume factors related to selection and misclassification are fully observed, but these factors may be poorly understood and partially observed in practice. As a follow‐up to the methodological work, we demonstrate how to apply these methods for two real‐world case studies, and we evaluate their performance. In both examples, we use individual patient‐level data collected through the University of Michigan Health System and various external population‐based data sources. In case study (a), we explore the impact of these methods on estimated associations between gender and cancer diagnosis. In case study (b), we compare corrected associations between previously identified genetic loci and age‐related macular degeneration with gold standard external summary estimates. These case studies illustrate how to utilize diverse auxiliary information to achieve less biased inference in EHR‐based research.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Investigation of the 176 Yb Interference Correction during Determination of the 176 Hf/ 177 Hf Ratio by Laser Ablation and Solution Analysis on the Neoma MC-ICP-MS

We utilized the Neoma™, a recently released MC-ICP-MS platform offered by ThermoFisher Scientific, to assess the behavior of the Lu-Yb-Hf system during laser ablation analyses of various zircon standards as well as solution-based analyses of the JMC-475 Hf standard doped with varying quantities of Yb and Lu. The primary goal of this work was to characterize the behavior of the Yb interference correction on the Neoma™ platform since this is one of the biggest issues in the Hf isotope analysis community and because the Neoma™ platform will supplant the Neptune™ series instrument. During laser ablation analysis, we found that the overall data quality scales proportionally with the total Hf signal intensity, with higher signal analyses producing extremely accurate (within 1 ε Hf unit) and precise (sub ε Hf unit within-run standard errors) data. At low Yb signals (<0.1 V 173 Yb), we were not able to produce an accurate internal Yb mass bias factor. However, utilizing an empirical approach allows for the application of session-specific relationships between the Yb and Hf mass bias factors, determined by analysis of standards of varying Yb content, to produce accurate ε Hf values from zircons with higher Yb/Hf ratios even where the total Hf signal intensity is relatively low. Similar behavior was observed in the solution analyses. Lastly, while the behavior of the Yb interference correction on the Neoma™ platform appears comparable to the Neptune™ series MC-ICP-MS, further work will help refine the understanding of the controls on mass bias behavior, oxide formation, session-to-session stability, etc.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Submillimeter-Wave Amplifier Module with Integrated Waveguide Transitions

To increase the usefulness of monolithic millimeter-wave integrated circuit (MMIC) components at submillimeter-wave frequencies, a chip has been designed that incorporates two integrated, radial E-plane probes with an MMIC amplifier in between, thus creating a fully integrated waveguide module. The integrated amplifier chip has been fabricated in 35-nm gate length InP high-electron-mobility-transistor (HEMT) technology. The radial probes were mated to grounded coplanar waveguide input and output lines in the internal amplifier. The total length of the internal HEMT amplifier is 550 m, while the total integrated chip length is 1,085 m. The chip thickness is 50 m with the chip width being 320 m. The internal MMIC amplifier is biased through wire-bond connections to the gates and drains of the chip. The chip has 3 stages, employing 35-nm gate length transistors in each stage. Wire bonds from the DC drain and gate pads are connected to off-chip shunt 51-pF capacitors, and additional off-chip capacitors and resistors are added to the gate and drain bias lines for low-frequency stability of the amplifier. Additionally, bond wires to the grounded coplanar waveguide pads at the RF input and output of the internal amplifier are added to ensure good ground connections to the waveguide package. The S-parameters of the module, not corrected for input or output waveguide loss, are measured at the waveguide flange edges. The amplifier module has over 10 dB of gain from 290 to 330 GHz, with a peak gain of over 14 dB at 307 GHz. The WR2.2 waveguide cutoff is again observed at 268 GHz. The module is biased at a drain current of 27 mA, a drain voltage of 1.24 V, and a gate voltage of +0.21 V. Return loss of the module is very good between 5 to 25 dB. This result illustrates the usefulness of the integrated radial probe transition, and the wide (over 10-percent) bandwidth that one can expect for amplifier modules with integrated radial probes in the submillimeter-regime (>300 GHz).

Samoska, Lorene↗

Studies of optical and chemical properties of aged and fresh biomass burning absorbing aerosols for climate models

Particulate emissions from burning fuels from sub-Saharan Africa is currently poorly characterized. With increasing population and industrialization, emissions are expected to grow. Optical methods for measuring light absorption in the ultraviolet (UV) and visible (vis) regions of the spectrum are crucial for understanding the optical properties of BB aerosols (Bond and Bergstrom, 2006; Lack and Cappa, 2010; Moschos et al., 2021). One such instrument is the dual-spot AE33 model aethalometer is a common filter-based instrument that can be used to measure aerosol absorption properties (Hansen et al., 1984). This instrument has many figures of merit; however, the method's limitations include potential biases from scattering within the filter material, multiple scattering effects of the particles, filter loading (i.e. particle shadowing), and the need for wavelength-specific correction factors (Cλ), which depend on accurate intercomparison with other in situ techniques (Bond et al., 1999; Collaud Coen et al., 2010). This work aims to: 1. Optically characterize BB aerosol generated from African fuel 2. Correct the aethalometer at multiple wavelengths 3. Parametrize these correction factors. 4. Combusting the same fuels with two difference tube furnace systems assess the general applicability of this flexible means of producing BB aerosol. This was accomplished by conducting laboratory studies at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and North Carolina A&T State University (NCA&T), where aethalometer measurements were compared to in situ optical measurements. Mass cross sections of BB aerosol from these under-studied fuels will be determined along with their wavelength dependence.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Electron collection theory for a D-region subsonic blunt electrostatic probe

Blunt probe theory for subsonic flow in a weakly ionized and collisional gas is reviewed, and an electron collection theory for the relatively unexplored case, Deybye length approximately 1, which occurs in the lower ionosphere (D-region), is developed. It is found that the dimensionless Debye length is no longer an electric field screening parameter, and the space charge field effect can be negelected. For ion collection, Hoult-Sonin theory is recognized as a correct description of the thin, ion density-perturbed layer adjacent the blunt probe surface. The large volume with electron density perturbed by a positively biased probe renders the usual thin boundary layer analysis inapplicable. Theories relating free stream conditions to the electron collection rate for both stationary and moving blunt probes are obtained. A model based on experimental nonlinear electron drift velocity data is proposed. For a subsonically moving probe, it is found that the perturbed region can be divided into four regions with distinct collection mechanisms.

Wai-Kwong Lai, T.↗

Characteristics of AlGaAs/GaAs multiple quantum well infrared detectors

Researchers fabricated and characterized several AlGaAs/GaAs multiple quantum well infrared detectors to evaluate the ultimate performance of these devices for low infrared background applications. The detectors were designed to have a single bound state in the quantum well and the first excited state in the continuum above the AlGaAs conduction band edge. The difference in energy between the two levels, as determined by the quantum well width and aluminum mole fraction in the barrier, was chosen such that peak absorption would occur near 8 microns. The initial structures studied comprised 50 periods with 40 A well widths and 300 A Al(0.28)Ga(0.72)As barriers. The performance of these detectors are summarized. To better interpret these results and design optimized detectors, researchers modeled both the detector noise and tunneling currents. The noise model correctly predicts that multiple quantum well detectors will, indeed, exhibit noise lower than full shot noise. The tunneling current model predicts the dark current versus bias for any choice of design parameters in a multiple quantum well detector. This model predicts a substantially reduced dark current (x 10(exp 04)) for samples with 400 A barriers. To evaluate structures with thicker barriers, researchers fabricated and characterized detectors with 400 A and 500 A barriers; a comparison of detector dark currents is shown. These results are consistent with the predictions of the dark current model.

Janousek, Bruce K.↗

The Extrapolation of Elementary Sequences

We study sequence extrapolation as a stream-learning problem. Input examples are a stream of data elements of the same type (integers, strings, etc.), and the problem is to construct a hypothesis that both explains the observed sequence of examples and extrapolates the rest of the stream. A primary objective -- and one that distinguishes this work from previous extrapolation algorithms -- is that the same algorithm be able to extrapolate sequences over a variety of different types, including integers, strings, and trees. We define a generous family of constructive data types, and define as our learning bias a stream language called elementary stream descriptions. We then give an algorithm that extrapolates elementary descriptions over constructive datatypes and prove that it learns correctly. For freely-generated types, we prove a polynomial time bound on descriptions of bounded complexity. An especially interesting feature of this work is the ability to provide quantitative measures of confidence in competing hypotheses, using a Bayesian model of prediction.

Laird, Philip↗

Accurate Magnetometer/Gyroscope Attitudes Using a Filter with Correlated Sensor Noise

Magnetometers and gyroscopes have been shown to provide very accurate attitudes for a variety of spacecraft. These results have been obtained, however, using a batch-least-squares algorithm and long periods of data. For use in onboard applications, attitudes are best determined using sequential estimators such as the Kalman filter. When a filter is used to determine attitudes using magnetometer and gyroscope data for input, the resulting accuracy is limited by both the sensor accuracies and errors inherent in the Earth magnetic field model. The Kalman filter accounts for the random component by modeling the magnetometer and gyroscope errors as white noise processes. However, even when these tuning parameters are physically realistic, the rate biases (included in the state vector) have been found to show systematic oscillations. These are attributed to the field model errors. If the gyroscope noise is sufficiently small, the tuned filter 'memory' will be long compared to the orbital period. In this case, the variations in the rate bias induced by field model errors are substantially reduced. Mistuning the filter to have a short memory time leads to strongly oscillating rate biases and increased attitude errors. To reduce the effect of the magnetic field model errors, these errors are estimated within the filter and used to correct the reference model. An exponentially-correlated noise model is used to represent the filter estimate of the systematic error. Results from several test cases using in-flight data from the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory are presented. These tests emphasize magnetometer errors, but the method is generally applicable to any sensor subject to a combination of random and systematic noise.

Sedlak, J.↗

Performance of Goddard Earth Observing System GCM Column Radiation Models under Heterogeneous Cloud Conditions

We test the performance of the shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) Column Radiation Models (CORAMs) of Chou and collaborators with heterogeneous cloud fields from a global single-day dataset produced by NCAR's Community Atmospheric Model with a 2-D CRM installed in each gridbox. The original SW version of the CORAM performs quite well compared to reference Independent Column Approximation (ICA) calculations for boundary fluxes, largely due to the success of a combined overlap and cloud scaling parameterization scheme. The absolute magnitude of errors relative to ICA are even smaller for the LW CORAM which applies similar overlap. The vertical distribution of heating and cooling within the atmosphere is also simulated quite well with daily-averaged zonal errors always below 0.3 K/d for SW heating rates and 0.6 K/d for LW cooling rates. The SW CORAM's performance improves by introducing a scheme that accounts for cloud inhomogeneity. These results suggest that previous studies demonstrating the inaccuracy of plane-parallel models may have unfairly focused on worst scenario cases, and that current radiative transfer algorithms of General Circulation Models (GCMs) may be more capable than previously thought in estimating realistic spatial and temporal averages of radiative fluxes, as long as they are provided with correct mean cloud profiles. However, even if the errors of the particular CORAMs are small, they seem to be systematic, and the impact of the biases can be fully assessed only with GCM climate simulations.

Oreopoulos, L.↗

Use of North American and European Air Quality Networks to Evaluate Global Chemistry-Climate Modeling of Surface Ozone

We test the current generation of global chemistry-climate models in their ability to simulate observed, present-day surface ozone. Models are evaluated against hourly surface ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1 degree by 1 degree grid cells, allowing commensurate model-measurement comparison. Models are generally biased high during all hours of the day and in all regions. Most models simulate the shape of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles well, correctly matching the timing of hourly (approximately 15:00 local time (LT)) and monthly (mid-June) peak surface ozone abundance. The amplitude of these cycles is less successfully matched. The observed summertime diurnal range (25 ppb) is underestimated in all regions by about 7 parts per billion, and the observed seasonal range (approximately 21 parts per billion) is underestimated by about 5 parts per billion except in the most polluted regions, where it is overestimated by about 5 parts per billion. The models generally match the pattern of the observed summertime ozone enhancement, but they overestimate its magnitude in most regions. Most models capture the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes, correctly showing that about 80 percent of individual extreme events occur in large-scale, multi-day episodes of more than 100 grid cells. The models also match the observed linear relationship between episode size and a measure of episode intensity, which shows increases in ozone abundance by up to 6 parts per billion for larger-sized episodes. We conclude that the skill of the models evaluated here provides confidence in their projections of future surface ozone.

diurnal variations↗

MAIAC Thermal Technique for Smoke Injection Height from MODIS

We present a new algorithm to derive smoke plume height (Ha) using thermal contrast from the rising mixture of aerosol and emitted gases in the MODIS 11m channel. Validation shows good agreement with wind-corrected MISR-MINX values, with about 60% of the MODIS Terra thermal retrievals within 500m of MISR Ha, and 450m lower on average. The bias is expected because the thermal technique represents an effective rather than a top plume height from MISR MINX. Comparison of MODIS Aqua retrievals with CALIOP CALIPSO shows similar statistics, with standard deviation of 458m for the mean plume height and 216m lower on average. Ha is part of the MAIAC MODIS Collection 6 suite of products (MCD19), accessible via the Land Product Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC). Aerosol injection height is reported in the daily MAIAC atmospheric product MCD19A2 along with the cloud mask, column water vapor, aerosol optical depth, AOD uncertainty and aerosol type, at 1km resolution on global Sinusoidal grid. Despite some limitations, the vastly increased coverage from MODIS observations makes it a valuable dataset complementing the established MISR and CALIOP products.

atmosphere↗

The Impact of New Accelerometer Transplant Data (ACH) on GRACE Follow-On Along-Orbit Inter-Satellite Laser Ranging Observations and Monthly Time-Variable Gravity and Mascon Solutions

GRACE-D accelerometer data show significant bias jumps since one month after the launch of the GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) satellites in May 2018, making them inapplicable for correcting GRACE-FO products for non-gravitational accelerations. The GRACE-FO Science Data System (SDS) compensated this issue by transplanting the GRACE-C accelerometer data toward that of GRACE-D. Recently, GRACE-FO SDS implemented an updated transplant method, used in the latest release of GRACE-FO data. Here, we examine the impact of updated accelerometer transplant data (ACH) on GRACE-FO measurements at all levels: (a) Level-1B inter-satellite laser ranging residuals measured along satellite orbit, (b) Level-2 time-variable gravity solutions from all SDS centers (JPL, CSR, and GFZ), and (c) Level-3 mascon solutions. We show that inter-satellite laser ranging residuals are modified at low frequencies below 1 mHz, affecting the along-orbit analysis of large-scale time-variable gravity signals. When mapped into monthly Level-2 spherical harmonic coefficients of geopotential, the low-frequency change in inter-satellite ranging residuals leads to substantial improvement of coefficients associated with resonant orders (i.e., 15, 30, 45, etc.) and C 30 . We also present an improved SLR-derived C 30 which significantly improves the agreement with updated GRACE-FO C 30 at seasonal and interannual timescales. Moreover, we demonstrate the noise reduction in mass change estimates from new GRACE-FO Level-2 data over oceans, Greenland, and Antarctica for all SDS solutions. GRACE-FO mascon solutions show a moderate change in the updated release. Our comprehensive analyses demonstrate high-quality estimates of non-gravitational accelerations by the updated transplant method, resulting in more accurate GRACE-FO time-variable gravity and mass change observations.

Laser ranging interferometer↗