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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2021

St. Joseph Peninsula Disasters: Using NASA Earth Observations to Investigate Land Cover, Shoreline Change, and Sediment Transport in St. Joseph Peninsula after Hurricane Michael

T.H. Stone Memorial St. Joseph Peninsula State Park experienced significant damages from Hurricane Michael in 2018, the first Category 5 hurricane to hit the contiguous United States since 1992. These damages included a 300-meter-wide and 10-meter-deep breach in the peninsula, habitat disruption, and a forced closure of over half of the total park area. These damages, coupled with restricted visitor access, resulted in a significant loss of revenue for the park. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the Florida Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) to determine the overall impact of Hurricane Michael on land cover and shoreline change by using NASA Earth observations including Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) to analyze sediment transport and climatology to further understand the lasting impacts of hurricanes on the ecosystems of the park. The DEVELOP team’s analyses showed that chlorophyll-a concentrations, sea surface temperature, and precipitation are increasing over time. The sediment transport analysis showed dynamic movement across the peninsula, with the greatest erosion occurring within the bay and along the length of the peninsula. These results are supported by evidence of declining seagrass abundances and seasonal turbidity patterns within those areas. Providing these analyses for the partner allows for a greater understanding of how best to proceed with restoration efforts, which may include rebuilding camping services, expanding fishing recreation, and conserving habitats for endangered species.

Erica Kriner↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cross-correlation analysis of X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy to extract rotational diffusion coefficients

Coefficients for translational and rotational diffusion characterize the Brownian motion of particles. Emerging X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy (XPCS) experiments probe a broad range of length scales and time scales and are well-suited for investigation of Brownian motion. While methods for estimating the translational diffusion coefficients from XPCS are well-developed, there are no algorithms for measuring the rotational diffusion coefficients based on XPCS, even though the required raw data are accessible from such experiments. In this paper, we propose angular-temporal cross-correlation analysis of XPCS data and show that this information can be used to design a numerical algorithm (Multi-Tiered Estimation for Correlation Spectroscopy [MTECS]) for predicting the rotational diffusion coefficient utilizing the cross-correlation: This approach is applicable to other wavelengths beyond this regime. We verify the accuracy of this algorithmic approach across a range of simulated data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Biosphere Futures: a database of social-ecological scenarios

T. Biosphere Futures (https://biospherefutures.net/) is a new online database to collect and discover scenario studies from across the world, with a specific focus on scenarios that explicitly incorporate interdependencies between humans and their supporting ecosystems. It provides access to a globally diverse collection of case studies that includes most ecosystems and regions, enabling exploration of the multifaceted ways in which the future might unfold. Together, the case studies illuminate the diversity and plurality of people’s expectations and aspirations for the future. The objective of Biosphere Futures is to promote the use of scenarios for sustainable development of the biosphere and to foster a community of practice around social-ecological scenarios. We do so by facilitating the assessment, synthesis, and comparative analysis of scenario case studies, pointing to relevant resources, and by helping practitioners and researchers to disseminate and showcase their own work. This article begins by outlining the rationale behind the creation of the database, followed by an introduction to its functionality and the criteria employed for selecting case studies. Subsequently, we present a synthesis of the first 100 case studies included in the scenarios database, highlighting emerging patterns and identifying potential avenues for further research. Finally, given that broader utilization and contributions to the database will enhance the achievement of Biosphere Futures’ objectives, we invite the creators of social-ecological scenarios to contribute additional case studies. By expanding the database’s breadth and depth, we can collectively foster a more nuanced understanding of the possible trajectories of our biosphere and enable better decision making for sustainable development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Vegetation and vantage point influence visibility across diverse ecosystems: Implications for animal ecology

Visual information can influence animal behavior and habitat use in diverse ways. Visibility is the property that relates 3D habitat structure to accessibility of visual information. Despite the importance of visibility in animal ecology, this property remains largely unstudied. Our objective was to assess how habitat structure from diverse environments and animal position within that structure can influence visibility. We gathered terrestrial lidar data (1 cm at 10 m) in four ecosystems (forest, shrub-steppe, prairie, and desert) to characterize viewsheds (i.e., estimates of visibility based on spatially explicit sightlines) from multiple vantage points. Both ecosystem-specific structure and animal position influenced potential viewsheds. Generally, as height of the vantage point above the ground increased, viewshed extent also increased, but the relationships were not linear. In low-structure ecosystems (prairie, shrub-steppe, and desert), variability in viewsheds decreased as vantage points increased to heights above the vegetation canopy. In the forest, however, variation in viewsheds was highest at intermediate heights, and markedly lower at the lowest and highest vantage points. These patterns are likely linked to the amount, heterogeneity, and distribution of vegetation structure occluding sightlines. Our work is the first to apply a new method that can be used to estimate viewshed properties relevant to animals (i.e., viewshed extent and variability). We demonstrate that these properties differ across terrestrial landscapes in complex ways that likely influence many facets of animal ecology and behavior.

Rachel Stein↗
DOE OSTI2025

Semiconductor-compatible topological digital alloys

Recently, GeSn alloys have attracted much interest for direct-gap infrared photonics and as potential topological materials which are compatible with the semiconductor industry. However, for photonics, the high-Sn content required leads to low detectivity, associated with poor material quality, and the (>35 %) Sn required for topological properties have been out of reach experimentally. Here, we demonstrate that by patterning the Sn distribution within Ge, the electronic properties have a far greater tunability than is possible with the random alloy. For the GeSn δ-digital alloy (DA) formed by confining Sn atoms in atomic layer(s) along the [111] direction of Ge, we show that ∼ 10 % Sn can lead to a triple-point semimetal. These findings are understood in terms of Sn ordering causing spatial separation of Sn and Ge band edges, leading to band inversion. This mechanism can also lead to a weak topological insulator, Weyl semimetal, and enables tunable direct bandgaps down to 2 meV, covering the entire infrared range. This DA induced topological properties are also identified in compound semiconductors, such as InAs 1-x Sb x , showing the general applicability of the DA design for realizing topological properties on conventional semiconductor platforms. Furthermore, our findings not only point to a new class of currently unexplored topological systems accessible by epitaxy, but also establish the promise of low-Sn GeSn DAs for application as infrared laser diodes and photodetectors in Si photonic integrated circuits and infrared image sensors.

3D topological semimetal↗
DOE OSTI2022

Implications of different income distributions for future residential energy demand in the U.S.

Abstract Future income distribution will affect energy demand and its interactions with various societal priorities. Most future model simulations assume a single average consumer and thus miss this important demand determinant. We quantify long-term implications of alternative future income distributions for state-level residential energy demand, investment, greenhouse gas, and pollutant emission patterns in the United States (U.S.) by incorporating income quintiles into the residential energy sector of the Global Change Analysis Model with 50-state disaggregation. We find that if the income distribution within each U.S. state becomes more egalitarian than present, what means that the difference on income between the richest and poorest decreases over time, residential energy demand could be 10% (4%–14% across states) higher in 2100. This increase of residential energy demand will directly reduce energy poverty, with a very modest increment on economywide CO 2 emissions (1%–2%). On the other hand, if U.S. states transition to a less equitable income distribution than present, with the difference between richest and poorest increasing over time, residential energy demand could be 19% (12%–26% across states) lower. While this study focuses on a single sector, we conclude that to improve understanding of synergies and tradeoffs across multiple societal goals such as energy access, emissions, and investments, future model simulations should explicitly consider subregional income distribution impacts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A daily, 250 m and real-time gross primary productivity product (2000–present) covering the contiguous United States

Abstract. Gross primary productivity (GPP) quantifies the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) fixed by plants through photosynthesis. Although as a key quantity of terrestrial ecosystems, there is a lack of high-spatial-and-temporal-resolution, real-time and observation-based GPP products. To address this critical gap, here we leverage a state-of-the-art vegetation index, near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRV), along with accurate photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), to produce a SatelLite Only Photosynthesis Estimation (SLOPE) GPP product for the contiguous United States (CONUS). Compared to existing GPP products, the proposed SLOPE product is advanced in its spatial resolution (250 m versus >500 m), temporal resolution (daily versus 8 d), instantaneity (latency of 1 d versus >2 weeks) and quantitative uncertainty (on a per-pixel and daily basis versus no uncertainty information available). These characteristics are achieved because of several technical innovations employed in this study: (1) SLOPE couples machine learning models with MODIS atmosphere and land products to accurately estimate PAR. (2) SLOPE couples highly efficient and pragmatic gap-filling and filtering algorithms with surface reflectance acquired by both Terra and Aqua MODIS satellites to derive a soil-adjusted NIRV (SANIRV) dataset. (3) SLOPE couples a temporal pattern recognition approach with a long-term Cropland Data Layer (CDL) product to predict dynamic C4 crop fraction. Through developing a parsimonious model with only two slope parameters, the proposed SLOPE product explains 85 % of the spatial and temporal variations in GPP acquired from 49 AmeriFlux eddy-covariance sites (324 site years), with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 1.63 gC m−2 d−1. The median R2 over C3 and C4 crop sites reaches 0.87 and 0.94, respectively, indicating great potentials for monitoring crops, in particular bioenergy crops, at the field level. With such a satisfactory performance and its distinct characteristics in spatiotemporal resolution and instantaneity, the proposed SLOPE GPP product is promising for biological and environmental research, carbon cycle research, and a broad range of real-time applications at the regional scale. The archived dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1786 (download page: https://daac.ornl.gov/daacdata/cms/SLOPE_GPP_CONUS/data/, last access: 20 January 2021) (Jiang and Guan, 2020), and the real-time dataset is available upon request.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2017

Payload Performance of Third Generation TDRS and Future Services

NASA has accepted two of the 3rd generation Tracking and Data Relay Satellites, TDRS K, L, and M, designed and built by Boeing Defense, Space & Security (DSS). TDRS K, L, and M provide S-band Multiple Access (MA) service and S-band, Ku-band and Ka-band Single Access (SA) services to near Earth orbiting satellites. The TDRS KLM satellites offer improved services relative to the 1st generation TDRS spacecraft, such as: an enhanced MA service featuring increased EIRPs and G/T; and Ka-band SA capability which provides a 225 and 650 MHz return service (customer-to-TDRS direction) bandwidth and a 50 MHz forward service (TDRS-to-customer direction) bandwidth. MA services are provided through a 15 element forward phased array that forms up to two beams with onboard active beamforming and a 32 element return phased array supported by ground-based beamforming. SA services are provided through two 4.6m tri-band reflector antennas which support program track pointing and autotrack pointing. Prior to NASAs acceptance of the satellites, payload on-orbit testing was performed on each satellite to determine on-orbit compliance with design requirements. Performance parameters evaluated include: EIRP, G/T, antenna gain patterns, SA antenna autotrack performance, and radiometric tracking performance. On-orbit antenna calibration and pointing optimization was also performed on the MA and SA antennas including 24 hour duration tests to characterize and calibrate out diurnal effects. Bit-Error-Rate (BER) tests were performed to evaluate the end-to-end link BER performance of service through a TDRS K and L spacecraft. The TDRS M is planned to be launched in August 2017. This paper summarizes the results of the TDRS KL communications payload on-orbit performance verification and end-to-end service characterization and compares the results with the performance of the 2nd generation TDRS J. The paper also provides a high-level overview of an optical communications application that will augment the data rates supported by the Space Network.

RF↗
NASA NTRS2017

Payload Performance of TDRS KL and Future Services

NASA has accepted two of the 3nd generation Tracking and Data Relay Satellites, TDRS K, L, and M, designed and built by Boeing Defense, Space Security (DSS). TDRS K, L, and M provide S-band Multiple Access (MA) service and S-band, Ku-band and Ka-band Single Access (SA) services to near Earth orbiting satellites. The TDRS KLM satellites offer improved services relative to the 1st generation TDRS spacecraft, such as: an enhanced MA service featuring increased EIRPs and GT; and Ka-band SA capability which provides a 225 and 650 MHz return service (customer-to-TDRS direction) bandwidth and a 50 MHz forward service (TDRS-to-customer direction) bandwidth. MA services are provided through a 15 element forward phased array that forms up to two beams with onboard active beamforming and a 32 element return phased array supported by ground-based beamforming. SA services are provided through two 4.6m tri-band reflector antennas which support program track pointing and autotrack pointing. Prior to NASAs acceptance of the satellites, payload on-orbit testing was performed on each satellite to determine on-orbit compliance with design requirements. Performance parameters evaluated include: EIRP, GT, antenna gain patterns, SA antenna autotrack performance, and radiometric tracking performance. On-orbit antenna calibration and pointing optimization was also performed on the MA and SA antennas including 24 hour duration tests to characterize and calibrate out diurnal effects. Bit-Error-Rate (BER) tests were performed to evaluate the end-to-end link BER performance of service through a TDRS K and L spacecraft. The TDRS M is planned to be launched in August 2017. This paper summarizes the results of the TDRS KL communications payload on-orbit performance verification and end-to-end service characterization and compares the results with the performance of the 2nd generation TDRS J. The paper also provides a high-level overview of an optical communications application that will augment the data rates supported by the Space Network.

Laser↗
DOE OSTI2016

SciDAC-Data, A Project to Enabling Data Driven Modeling of Exascale Computing

The SciDAC-Data project is a DOE funded initiative to analyze and exploit two decades of information and analytics that have been collected by the Fermilab Data Center on the organization, movement, and consumption of High Energy Physics data. The project will analyze the analysis patterns and data organization that have been used by the NOvA, MicroBooNE, MINERvA and other experiments, to develop realistic models of HEP analysis workflows and data processing. The SciDAC-Data project aims to provide both realistic input vectors and corresponding output data that can be used to optimize and validate simulations of HEP analysis. These simulations are designed to address questions of data handling, cache optimization and workflow structures that are the prerequisites for modern HEP analysis chains to be mapped and optimized to run on the next generation of leadership class exascale computing facilities. We will address the use of the SciDAC-Data distributions acquired from Fermilab Data Center’s analysis workflows and corresponding to around 71,000 HEP jobs, as the input to detailed queuing simulations that model the expected data consumption and caching behaviors of the work running in HPC environments. In particular we describe in detail how the Sequential Access via Metadata (SAM) data handling system in combination with the dCache/Enstore based data archive facilities have been analyzed to develop the radically different models of the analysis of HEP data. We present how the simulation may be used to analyze the impact of design choices in archive facilities.

Mubarak, M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Foundations of machine learning for low-temperature plasmas: methods and case studies

Abstract Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence have proven to be an invaluable tool in tackling a vast array of scientific, engineering, and societal problems. The main drivers behind the recent proliferation of ML in practically all aspects of science and technology can be attributed to: (a) improved data acquisition and inexpensive data storage; (b) exponential growth in computing power; and (c) availability of open-source software and resources that have made the use of state-of-the-art ML algorithms widely accessible. The impact of ML on the field of low-temperature plasmas (LTPs) could be particularly significant in the emerging applications that involve plasma treatment of complex interfaces in areas ranging from the manufacture of microelectronics and processing of quantum materials, to the LTP-driven electrification of the chemical industry, and to medicine and biotechnology. This is primarily due to the complex and poorly-understood nature of the plasma-surface interactions in these applications that pose unique challenges to the modeling, diagnostics, and predictive control of LTPs. As the use of ML is becoming more prevalent, it is increasingly paramount for the LTP community to be able to critically analyze and assess the concepts and techniques behind data-driven approaches. To this end, the goal of this paper is to provide a tutorial overview of some of the widely-used ML methods that can be useful, amongst others, for discovering and correlating patterns in the data that may be otherwise impractical to decipher by human intuition alone, for learning multivariable nonlinear data-driven prediction models that are capable of describing the complex behavior of plasma interacting with interfaces, and for guiding the design of experiments to explore the parameter space of plasma-assisted processes in a systematic and resource-efficient manner. We illustrate the utility of various supervised, unsupervised and active learning methods using LTP datasets consisting of commonly-available, information-rich measurements (e.g. optical emission spectra, current–voltage characteristics, scanning electron microscope images, infrared surface temperature measurements, Fourier transform infrared spectra). All the ML demonstrations presented in this paper are carried out using open-source software; the datasets and codes are made publicly available. The FAIR guiding principles for scientific data management and stewardship can accelerate the adoption and development of ML in the LTP community.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2014

Combustion synthesis of MgFe{sub 2}O{sub 4}/graphene nanocomposite as a high-performance negative electrode for lithium ion batteries

We present a facile and cost-effective urea-assisted auto-combustion method for synthesizing pure MgFe{sub 2}O{sub 4} nanoparticle and MgFe{sub 2}O{sub 4}/graphene nanocomposite samples followed by annealing at 600 °C for 5 h under N{sub 2} atmosphere. The X-ray diffraction pattern confirmed the single phase formation for both samples. The obtained morphology of the nanocomposite sample shows that the MgFe{sub 2}O{sub 4} nanoparticles are highly dispersed on conductive graphene nanosheets with particle size in the range of 50–100 nm. When applied as an anode material, MgFe{sub 2}O{sub 4}/graphene nanocomposite electrode shows a high reversible charge capacity of 764.4 mAh g{sup −1} at 0.04 C over 60 charge/discharge cycles and in spite of that it also retained a capacity of 219.9 mAh g{sup −1} at high current rate of 4.2 C. The obtained result is much better than the synthesized pure MgFe{sub 2}O{sub 4} nanoparticle electrode. The excellent electrochemical performance of the MgFe{sub 2}O{sub 4}/graphene nanocomposite electrode can be attributed to the strong favorable synergistic interaction between MgFe{sub 2}O{sub 4} and reduced graphene nanosheets, which supplied a large number of accessible active sites for Li{sup +}-ion insertion and short diffusion length for both Li{sup +} ions and electrons. In addition, the graphene nanosheets in the nanocomposite electrode provide high conductivity and accommodate the large volume expansion/contraction during cycling, resulting in high capacity and long cycling stability. - Highlights: • MgFe{sub 2}O{sub 4}/graphene nanocomposite was synthesized by facile urea-assisted method. • Such well-designed structure results in fine and strong interfacial interaction. • Nanocomposite anode shows high rate capability and long cycling stability. • Better performance is due to synergistic effect between MgFe{sub 2}O{sub 4} and graphene. • Simple, low cost and fast synthesis is attractive for large scale applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reexamining supercritical gas adsorption theories in nano-porous shales under geological conditions

Adsorption is an important phenomenon in surface chemistry, especially for nano-porous shales. In the shale gas-in-place, adsorbed gas could contribute up to 85%. However, adsorption is hard to quantitatively characterize due to different adsorption mechanisms, patterns, surfaces, and pore sizes. Moreover, key thermodynamic parameters, such as the enthalpy of adsorption, are challenging to determine due to uncertainties in adsorbed gas densities used in constructing absolute isotherms. In this paper, we revisit the Brunauer, Emmett, and Teller (BET) model, analytically simplify Ono-Kondo (OK) models for subsurface shales, and compare commonly used mono- and multilayer adsorption models (e.g., Langmuir, supercritical Dubinin-Radushkevich (SDR), supercritical BET (SBET), and simplified OK (OKs) models) with recently proposed pressure-dependent adsorption densities to develop a practical and reliable methodology that can be used in the supercritical state, typical for subsurface black shale conditions.Three independent data sets were used for nitrogen and methane adsorption isotherms at different temperatures. Furthermore, we demonstrate that adsorption predicted by the SDR model is comparable or lower than that predicted by the SBET model, but higher than the amounts predicted by Langmuir and OK models. The nitrogen BET method tends to underestimate the accessible SSA for methane. Measurement of isosteric heat of adsorption is suggested instead of the experimental fitting method, due to the significant difference between the calculated results by two commonly used methods. Experimental fitting and simulation methods are also briefly reviewed to guide future research on shale gas adsorption.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Eta Carinae & the Homunculus: Far Infrared Sub-millimeter Spectral Lines detected with the Herschel Space Observatory

The evolved massive binary star η Carinae underwent eruptive mass loss events that formed the complex bi-polar “Homunculus” nebula harboring tens of solar masses of unusually nitrogen-rich gas and dust. Despite expectations for the presence of a significant molecular component to the gas, detections have been observationally challenged by limited access to the far-infrared and the intense thermal continuum. A spectral survey of the atomic and rotational molecular transitions was carried out with theHerschel Space Observatory, revealing a rich spectrum of broad emission lines originating in the ejecta. Velocity profiles of selected PACS lines correlate well with known substructures: Hi in the central core; NH and weak [Cii] within the Homunculus; and [Nii] emissions in fast-moving structures external to the Homunculus.We have identified transitions from [Oi], Hi, and 18 separate light C- and O-bearing molecules including CO, CH, CH+, and OH, and a wide set of N-bearing molecules,NH, NH+, N2H+, NH2, NH3, HCN, HNC, CN, and N2H+. Half of these are new detections unprecedented for any early-type massive star environment. A very low ratio[12C/13C]≤4 is estimated from five molecules and their isotopologues. We demonstrate that non-LTE effects due to the strong continuum are significant. Abundance patterns are consistent with line formation in regions of carbon and oxygen depletions with nitrogen enhancements, reflecting an evolved state of the erupting star with efficient transport of CNO-processed material to the outer layers. The results offer many opportunities for further observational and theoretical investigations of the molecular chemistry under extreme physical and chemical conditions around massive stars in their final stages of evolution.

T. R. Gull↗
DOE OSTI2021

Beyond Ohm's law: Bernoulli effect and streaming in electron hydrodynamics

Recent observations of nonlocal transport in ultraclean two-dimensional materials raised the tantalizing possibility of accessing hydrodynamic correlated transport of a many-electron state. However, it has been pointed out that nonlocal transport can also arise from impurity scattering rather than interaction. At the crux of the ambiguity is the focus on linear effects, i.e., Ohm's law, which cannot easily differentiate among different modes of transport. Furthermore we propose experiments that can reveal rich hydrodynamic features in the system by tapping into the nonlinearity of the Navier-Stokes equation. Three experiments we propose will each manifest a unique phenomenon that is well known in classical fluids: the Bernoulli effect, Eckart streaming, and Rayleigh streaming. Analysis of known parameters confirms that the proposed experiments are feasible and the hydrodynamic signatures are within reach of graphene-based devices. Experimental realization of any one of the three phenomena will provide a stepping stone to formulating and exploring the notions of nonlinear electron fluid dynamics with an eye to celebrated examples from classical nonlaminar flows, e.g., pattern formation and turbulence.

2-dimensional systems↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Scalable Multi-Modal Framework for High-Fidelity Distributed Human Mobility Simulations

The development of data-driven models for human mobility in urban settings requires access to substantial and diverse real-world data. However, existing historical data often presents challenges such as limited volume, variety, and veracity, as well as missing data and privacy preservation concerns. Also, urban mobility modeling is inherently time-variant, complex, and multi-modal, encompassing everything from individual walking and running to private road travel and large-scale public transportation. These challenges call for innovative solutions to overcome data limitations and compute needs to model mobility behaviors accurately. To address these challenges, we propose a distributed, co-simulation-based architecture DURMOSim that integrates real-world data with scalable, high-fidelity simulations, demonstrating distributed co-simulation feasibility with existing mobility models. DURMOSim underpins a modular integration that would enable using any available mobility simulators for greater extensibility and scalability in performing various urban scenarios. In this paper, we present the design, implementation, and performance evaluation of DURMOSim, highlighting its capability to model population-scale mobility patterns. Our initial results show its ability to dynamically synchronize multiple simulation models at runtime with negligible computational overhead. We believe DURMOSim could be a robust tool for advancing urban mobility research and intelligent transportation systems.

Yoginath, Srikanth [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000184236050)↗
DOE OSTI2014

Climate data, analysis and models for the study of natural variability and anthropogenic change

Gridded Temperature Under prior/current support, we completed and published (Jones et al., 2012) the fourth major update to our global land dataset of near-surface air temperatures, CRUTEM4. This is one of the most widely used records of the climate system, having been updated, maintained and further developed with DoE support since the 1980s. We have continued to update the CRUTEM4 (Jones et al., 2012) database that is combined with marine data to produce HadCRUT4 (Morice et al., 2012). The emphasis in our use of station temperature data is to access as many land series that have been homogenized by National Meteorological Services (NMSs, including NCDC/NOAA, Asheville, NC). Unlike the three US groups monitoring surface temperatures in a similar way, we do not infill areas that have no or missing data. We can only infill such regions in CRUTEM4 by accessing more station temperature series. During early 2014, we have begun the extensive task of updating as many of these series as possible using data provided by some NMSs and also through a number of research projects and programs around the world. All the station data used in CRUTEM4 have been available since 2009, but in Osborn and Jones (2014) we have made this more usable using a Google Earth interface (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/crutem/ge/ ). We have recently completed the update of our infilled land multi-variable dataset (CRU TS 3.10, Harris et al., 2014). This additionally produces complete land fields (except for the Antarctic) for temperature, precipitation, diurnal temperature range, vapour pressure and sunshine/cloud. Using this dataset we have calculated sc-PDSI (self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index) data and compared with other PDSI datasets (Trenberth et al., 2014). Also using CRU TS 3.10 and Reanalysis datasets, we showed no overall increase in global temperature variability despite changing regional patterns (Huntingford et al., 2013). Harris et al. (2014) is an update of an earlier dataset (Mitchell and Jones, 2005) which also had earlier DoE support. The earlier dataset has been cited over 1700 times according to ResearcherID on 31/July/2014 and the recent paper has already been cited 22 times. Analyses of Temperature Data Using the ERA-Interim estimate of the absolute surface air temperature of the Earth (instead of in the more normal form of anomalies) we compared the result against estimates we produced in 1999 with earlier DoE support. The two estimates are surprisingly close (differing by a couple of tenths of a degree Celsius), with the average temperature of the world (for 1981-2010) being very close to 14°C (Jones and Harpham, 2013). We have assessed ERA-Interim against station temperatures from manned and automatic weather station measurements across the Antarctic (Jones and Lister, 2014). Agreement is generally excellent across the Antarctic Peninsula and the sparsely sampled western parts of Antarctica. Differences tend to occur over eastern Antarctica where ERA-Interim is biased warm (up to 6°C) in the interior of the continent and biased cool (up to 6°C) for some of the coastal locations. Opportunities presented themselves during 2012 for collaborative work with a couple of Chinese groups. Three papers develop new temperature series for China as a whole and also for the eastern third of China (Wang et al., 2014, Cao et al., 2013 and Zhao et al., 2014). A dataset of ~400 daily Chinese temperature stations has been added to the CRU datasets. The latter paper finds that urban effects are generally about 10% of the long-term warming trend across eastern China. A fourth paper (Wang et al., 2013) illustrates issues with comparisons between reanalyses and surface temperatures across China, a method that has been widely used by some to suggest urban heating effects are much larger in the region. ERA-Interim can be used but NCEP/NCAR comparisons are very dependent on the period analysed. Earlier a new temperature dataset of homogenized records was developed for China (Li et al., 2009). Urbanization has also been addressed for London (Jones and Lister, 2009) where two rural sites have not warmed more than a city centre site since 1900. Additionally, in Ethymiadis and Jones (2010) we show that land air temperatures agree with marine data around coastal areas, further illustrating that urbanization is not a major component of large-scale surface air temperature change. Early instrumental data (before the development of modern thermometer screens) have always been suspected of being biased warm in summer, due to possible direct exposure to the sun. Two studies (Böhm et al., 2010 and Brunet et al., 2010) show this for the Greater Alpine Region (GAR) and for mainland Spain respectively. The issue is important before about 1870 in the GAR and before about 1900 in Spain. After correction for the problems, summer temperature estimates before these dates are cooler by about 0.4°C. In Jones and Wigley (2010), we discussed the importance of the biases in global temperature estimation. Exposure and to a lesser extent urbanization are the most important biases for the land areas, but both are dwarfed by the necessary adjustments for bucket SST measurements before about 1950. Individual station homogeneity is only important at the local scale. This was additionally illustrated by Hawkins and Jones (2013) where we replicated the temperature record developed by Guy Stewart Callendar in papers in 1938 and 1961. Analyses of Daily Climate Data Work here indicates that ERA-Interim (at least in Europe, Cornes and Jones, 2013, discussed in more detail in this proposal) can be used to monitor extremes (using the ETCCDI software – see Zhang et al., 2011). Additionally, also as a result of Chinese collaboration, a new method of daily temperature homogenization has been developed (Li et al., 2014). In Cornes and Jones (2011) we assessed storm activity in the northeast Atlantic region using daily gridded data. Even though the grid resolution is coarse (5° by 5° lat/long) the changes in storm activity are similar to those developed from the pressure triangle approach with station data. Analyses of humidity and pressure data In Simmons et al. (2010) we showed a reduction in relative humidity over low-latitude and mid-latitude land areas for the 10 years to 2008, based on monthly anomalies of surface air temperature and humidity from ECMWF reanalyses (ERA-40 and ERA-Interim) and our earlier land-only dataset (CRUTEM3) and synoptic humidity observations (HadCRUH). Updates of this station-based humidity dataset (now called HadISDH) extend the record, showing continued reductions (Willett et al., 2013). Analyses of Proxy Temperature Data In Vinther et al. (2010), relationships between the seasonal stable isotope data from Greenland Ice Cores and Greenland and Icelandic instrumental temperatures were investigated for the past 150-200 years. The winter season stable isotope data are found to be influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and very closely related to SW Greenland temperatures. The summer season stable isotope data display higher correlations with Icelandic summer temperatures and North Atlantic SST conditions than with local SW Greenland temperatures. In Jones et al. (2014) we use these winter isotope reconstructions to show the expected inverse correlation (due to the NAO) with winter-season documentary reconstructions from the Netherlands and Sweden over the last 800 years. Finally, in this section Jones et al. (2013) shows the agreement between tree-ring width measurements from Northern Sweden and Finland and an assessment of the link to explosive volcanic eruptions. An instrumental record for the region in the early 19th century indicates that the summer of 1816 was only slightly below normal, explaining why this year has normal growth for both ring width and density. GCM/RCM/Reanalysis Evaluation In this section we have intercompared daily temperature extremes across Europe in Cornes and Jones (2013) using station data, E-OBS and ERA-Interim. We have additionally considered the impact of the urban issue on the global scale using the results of the Compo et al. (2011) Reanalyses, 20CR. These only make use of SST and station pressure data. Across the world’s land areas, they indicate similar warming since 1900 to that which has occurred (Compo et al., 2013), again illustrating that urbanization is not the cause of the long-term warming. Changes in HadCRUH global land surface specific humidity and CRUTEM3 surface temperatures from 1973 to 1999 were compared to the CMIP3 archive of climate model simulations with 20th Century forcings (Willett et al., 2010). The models reproduce the magnitude of observed interannual variance over all large regions. Observed and modelled trends and temperature-humidity relationships are comparable with the exception of the extra-tropical Southern Hemisphere where observations exhibit no trend but models exhibit moistening.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1991

Automated rendezvous and docking with video imagery

For rendezvous and docking, assessing and tracking relative orientation is necessary within a minimum approach distance. Special target light patterns have previously been considered for use with video sensors for ease of determining relative orientation. A generalization of those approaches is addressed. At certain ranges, the entire structure of the target vehicle constitutes an acceptable target; at closer ranges, substructures will suffice. Acting on the same principle as the human intelligence, these structures can be compared with a memory model to assess the relative orientation and range. Models for comparison are constructed from a CAD facet model and current imagery. This approach requires fast image handling, projection, and comparison techniques which rely on rapidly developing parallel processing technology. Relative orientation and range assessment consists of successful comparison of the perceived target aspect with a known aspect. Generating a known projection from a model within required times, say subsecond times, is only now approaching feasibility. With this capability, rates of comparison used by the human brain can be approached and arbitrary known structures can be compared in reasonable times. Future space programs will have access to powerful computation devices which far exceed even this capability. For example, the possibility will exist to assess unknown structures and then control rendezvous and docking, all at very fast rates. The first step which has the current utility, namely applying this to known structures, is taken.

Rodgers, Mike↗