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Prognostics for Microgrid Components

Prognostics is the science of predicting future performance and potential failures based on targeted condition monitoring. Moving away from the traditional reliability centric view, prognostics aims at detecting and quantifying the time to impending failures. This advance warning provides the opportunity to take actions that can preserve uptime, reduce cost of damage, or extend the life of the component. The talk will focus on the concepts and basics of prognostics from the viewpoint of condition-based systems health management. Differences with other techniques used in systems health management and philosophies of prognostics used in other domains will be shown. Examples relevant to micro grid systems and subsystems will be used to illustrate various types of prediction scenarios and the resources it take to set up a desired prognostic system. Specifically, the implementation results for power storage and power semiconductor components will demonstrate specific solution approaches of prognostics. The role of constituent elements of prognostics, such as model, prediction algorithms, failure threshold, run-to-failure data, requirements and specifications, and post-prognostic reasoning will be explained. A discussion on performance evaluation and performance metrics will conclude the technical discussion followed by general comments on open research problems and challenges in prognostics.

Saxena, Abhinav↗

The Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment Mission and its Potential Contributions to Human Exploration of Asteroids

The joint ESA and NASA Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission will directly address aspects of NASA's Asteroid Initiative and will contribute to future human exploration. The NASA Asteroid Initiative is comprised of two major components: the Grand Challenge and the Asteroid Mission. The first component, the Grand Challenge, focuses on protecting Earth's population from asteroid impacts by detecting potentially hazardous objects with enough warning time to either prevent them from impacting the planet, or to implement civil defense procedures. The Asteroid Mission, involves sending astronauts to study and sample a near-Earth asteroid (NEA) prior to conducting exploration missions of the Martian system, which includes Phobos and Deimos. AIDA's primary objective is to demonstrate a kinetic impact deflection and characterize the binary NEA Didymos. The science and technical data obtained from AIDA will aid in the planning of future human exploration missions to NEAs and other small bodies. The dual robotic missions of AIDA, ESA's Asteroid Impact Monitor (AIM) and NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), will provide a great deal of technical and engineering data on spacecraft operations for future human space exploration while conducting in-depth scientific examinations of the binary target Didymos both prior to and after the kinetic impact demonstration. The knowledge gained from this mission will help identify asteroidal physical properties in order to maximize operational efficiency and reduce mission risk for future small body missions. The AIDA data will help fill crucial strategic knowledge gaps concerning asteroid physical characteristics that are relevant for human exploration considerations at similar small body destinations.

Abell, Paul A.↗

Robotic Missions to Small Bodies and Their Potential Contributions to Human Exploration and Planetary Defense

Introduction: Robotic missions to small bodies will directly address aspects of NASA's Asteroid Initiative and will contribute to future human exploration and planetary defense. The NASA Asteroid Initiative is comprised of two major components: the Grand Challenge and the Asteroid Mission. The first component, the Grand Challenge, focuses on protecting Earth's population from asteroid impacts by detecting potentially hazardous objects with enough warning time to either prevent them from impacting the planet, or to implement civil defense procedures. The Asteroid Mission involves sending astronauts to study and sample a near-Earth asteroid (NEA) prior to conducting exploration missions of the Martian system, which includes Phobos and Deimos. The science and technical data obtained from robotic precursor missions that investigate the surface and interior physical characteristics of an object will help identify the pertinent physical properties that will maximize operational efficiency and reduce mission risk for both robotic assets and crew operating in close proximity to, or at the surface of, a small body. These data will help fill crucial strategic knowledge gaps (SKGs) concerning asteroid physical characteristics that are relevant for human exploration considerations at similar small body destinations. These data can also be applied for gaining an understanding of pertinent small body physical characteristics that would also be beneficial for formulating future impact mitigation procedures. Small Body Strategic Knowledge Gaps: For the past several years NASA has been interested in identifying the key SKGs related to future human destinations. These SKGs highlight the various unknowns and/or data gaps of targets that the science and engineering communities would like to have filled in prior to committing crews to explore the Solar System. An action team from the Small Bodies Assessment Group (SBAG) was formed specifically to identify the small body SKGs under the direction of the Human Exploration and Operations Missions Directorate (HEOMD), given NASA's recent interest in NEAs and the Martian moons as potential human destinations. The action team organized the SKGs into four broad themes: 1) Identify human mission targets; 2) Understand how to work on and interact with the small body surface; 3) Understand the small body environment and its potential risk/benefit to crew, systems, and operational assets; and 4) Understand the small body resource potential. Of these four SKG themes, the first three have significant overlap with planetary defense considerations. The data obtained from investigations of small body physical characteristics under these three themes can be directly applicable to planetary defense initiatives. Conclusions: Missions to investigate small bodies can address small body strategic knowledge gaps and contribute to the overall success for human exploration missions to asteroids and the Martian moons. In addition, such reconnaissance of small bodies can also provide a wealth of information relevant to the science and planetary defense of NEAs.

Abell, Paul A.↗

Architecture for Mitigating Short-Term Warning Cosmic Threats: READI Project

Earth is being constantly bombarded by a large variety of celestial bodies and has been since its formation 4.5 billion years ago. Among those bodies, mainly asteroids and comets, there are those that have the potential to create large scale destruction upon impact. The only extinction-level impact recorded to date was 65 million years ago, during the era of dinosaurs. The probability of another extinction-level, or even city-killer, impact may be negligible, but the consequences can be severe for the biosphere and for our species. Therefore it is highly imperative for us to be prepared for such a devastating impact in the near future, especially since humanity is at the threshold of wielding technologies that allow us to do so. Majority of scientists, engineers, and policymakers have focused on long-term strategies and warning periods for Earth orbit crossing Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), and have suggested methods and policies to tackle such problems. However, less attention has been paid to short warning period NEO threats. Such NEOs test current technological and international cooperation capabilities in protecting ourselves, and can create unpredictable devastation ranging from local to global scale. The most recent example is the Chelyabinsk incident in Russia. This event has provided a wakeup call for space agencies and governments around the world towards establishing a Planetary Defense Program. The Roadmap for EArth Defense Initiative (READI) is a project by a team of international, intercultural, and interdisciplinary participants of the International Space University's Space Studies Program 2015 hosted by Ohio University, Athens, OH proposing a roadmap for space agencies, governments, and the general public to tackle NEOs with a short warning before impact. Taking READI as a baseline, this paper presents a technical description of methodologies proposed for detection and impact mitigation of a medium-sized comet (up to 800m across) with a short-warning period of two years on a collision course with Earth. The hypothetical comet is on a highly-inclined orbit having a high probability for Earth impact after its perihelion. For detection, we propose a space-based infrared detection system consisting of two satellites located at the Earth-Moon Lagrange points L1 and L2 coupled with space observatories, like the James Webb telescope and the Centennial telescope. These telescopes are supported by ground-based telescopes, like the Arecibo and Green Bank telescope, in the search for NEOs. Upon detection, the comet is tracked constantly using space- and ground-based telescopes. The deflection system is two-pronged, firstly involving the use of a high energy Directed Energy Laser Terminals (DELT) placed at Sun-Earth Lagrange points L4 and L5 so as to initiate and increase the ablation rate of the comet and deviate it from its collision trajectory, and secondly by the Hypervelocity Comet Intercept Vehicle (HCIV), a space-borne system combining a kinetic impactor with a thermonuclear device. The policy and international collaboration aspects to implement these methods are also outlined in the paper. The techniques mentioned could also be applied to mitigate medium-to-large sized asteroids (up to 2km across).

Laser Applications↗

Planetary Defense Architecture for Mitigating Short-Term Warning Cosmic Threats: READI Project

Earth is being constantly bombarded by a large variety of celestial bodies and has been since its formation 4.5 billion years ago. Among those bodies, mainly asteroids and comets, there are those that have the potential to create large scale destruction upon impact. The only extinction-level impact recorded to date was 65 million years ago, during the era of dinosaurs. The probability of another extinction-level, or even city-killer, impact may be negligible, but the consequences can be severe for the biosphere and for our species. Therefore it is highly imperative for us to be prepared for such a devastating impact in the near future, especially since humanity is at the threshold of wielding technologies that allow us to do so. Majority of scientists, engineers, and policymakers have focused on long-term strategies and warning periods for Earth orbit crossing Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), and have suggested methods and policies to tackle such problems. However, less attention has been paid to short warning period NEO threats. Such NEOs test current technological and international cooperation capabilities in protecting ourselves, and can create unpredictable devastation ranging from local to global scale. The most recent example is the Chelyabinsk incident in Russia. This event has provided a wakeup call for space agencies and governments around the world towards establishing a Planetary Defense Program. The Roadmap for EArth Defense Initiative (READI) is a project by a team of international, intercultural, and interdisciplinary participants of the International Space University's Space Studies Program 2015 hosted by Ohio University, Athens, OH proposing a roadmap for space agencies, governments, and the general public to tackle NEOs with a short warning before impact. Taking READI as a baseline, this paper presents a technical description of methodologies proposed for detection and impact mitigation of a medium-sized comet (up to 800m across) with a short-warning period of two years on a collision course with Earth. The hypothetical comet is on a highly-inclined orbit having a high probability for Earth impact after its perihelion. For detection, we propose a space-based infrared detection system consisting of two satellites located at the Earth-Moon Lagrange points L1 and L2 coupled with space observatories, like the James Webb telescope and the Centennial telescope. These telescopes are supported by ground-based telescopes, like the Arecibo and Green Bank telescope, in the search for NEOs. Upon detection, the comet is tracked constantly using space- and ground-based telescopes. The deflection system is two-pronged, firstly involving the use of a high energy Directed Energy Laser Terminals (DELT) placed at Sun-Earth Lagrange points L4 and L5 so as to initiate and increase the ablation rate of the comet and deviate it from its collision trajectory, and secondly by the Hypervelocity Comet Intercept Vehicle (HCIV), a space-borne system combining a kinetic impactor with a thermonuclear device. The policy and international collaboration aspects to implement these methods are also outlined in the paper. The techniques mentioned could also be applied to mitigate medium-to-large sized asteroids (up to 2km across).

Laser Applications↗

Design and Development of Functionally Effective Human-Machine Interfaces for Firing Room Displays

This project involves creating software for support equipment used on the Space l aunch System (SLS). The goal is to create applications and displays that will be used to remotely operate equipment from the firing room and will continue to support the SLS launch vehicle to the extent of its program. These displays include design practices that help to convey information effectively, such as minimizing distractions at normal operating state and displaying intentional distractions during a warning or alarm state. The general practice for creating an operator display is to reduce the detail of unimportant aspects of the display and promote focus on data and dynamic information. These practices include using minimalist design, using muted tones for background colors, using a standard font at a readable text size, displaying alarms visible for Immediate attention, grouping data logically, and displaying data appropriately varying on the type of data. Users of these displays are more likely to stay focused on operating for longer periods by using design practices that reduce eye strain and fatigue. Effective operator displays will improve safety by reducing human errors during operation, which will help prevent catastrophic accidents. This report entails the details of my work on developing remote displays for the Hypergolics ground system. Before developing a prototype display, the design and requirements of the system are outlined and compiled into a document. Then each subsystem has schematic representations drawn tha.t meet the specifications detailed in the document. The schematics are then used as the outline to create display representations of each subsystem. Each display is first tested individually. Then the displays are integrated with a prototype of the master system, and they are tested in a simulated environment then retested in the real environment. Extensive testing is important to ensure the displays function reliably as intended.

Cho, Henry↗

Integrating Multiple Space Ground Sensors to Track Volcanic Activity

Volcanic activity can occur with little or no warning. Increasing numbers of space borne assets can enable coordinated measurements of volcanic events to enhance both scientific study and hazard response. We describe the use of space and ground measurements to target further measurements as part of a worldwide volcano monitoring system. We utilize a number of alert systems including the MODVOLC, GOESVOLC, US Air Force Weather Advisory, and Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) alert systems. Additionally we use in-situ data from ground instrumentation at a number of volcanic sites, including Iceland.

volcanoes↗

Design and Development of Functionally Effective Human-Machine Interfaces for Firing Room Displays

This project involves creating software for support equipment used on the Space Launch System (SLS). The goal is to create applications and displays that will be used to remotely operate equipment from the firing room and will continue to support the SLS launch vehicle to the extent of its program. These displays include design practices that help to convey information effectively, such as minimizing distractions at normal operating state and displaying intentional distractions during a warning or alarm state. The general practice for creating an operator display is to reduce the detail of unimportant aspects of the display and promote focus on data and dynamic information. These practices include using minimalist design, using muted tones for background colors, using a standard font at a readable text size, displaying alarms visible for immediate attention, grouping data logically, and displaying data appropriately varying on the type of data. Users of these displays are more likely to stay focused on operating for longer periods by using design practices that reduce eye strain and fatigue. Effective operator displays will improve safety by reducing human errors during operation, which will help prevent catastrophic accidents. This report entails the details of my work on developing remote displays for the Hypergolic fuel servicing system. Before developing a prototype display, the design and requirements of the system are outlined and compiled into a document. Then each subsystem has schematic representations drawn that meet the specifications detailed in the document. The schematics are then used as the outline to create display representations of each subsystem. Each display is first tested individually. Then the displays are integrated with a prototype of the master system, and they are tested in a simulated environment then retested in the real environment. Extensive testing is important to ensure the displays function reliably as intended.

displays↗

Evolution of pathogen tolerance and emerging infections: A missing experimental paradigm

Researchers worldwide are repeatedly warning us against future zoonotic diseases resulting from humankind’s insurgence into natural ecosystems. The same zoonotic pathogens that cause severe infections in a human host frequently fail to produce any disease outcome in their natural hosts. What precise features of the immune system enable natural reservoirs to carry these pathogens so efficiently? To understand these effects, we highlight the importance of tracing the evolutionary basis of pathogen tolerance in reservoir hosts, while drawing implications from their diverse physiological and life-history traits, and ecological contexts of host-pathogen interactions. Long-term co-evolution might allow reservoir hosts to modulate immunity and evolve tolerance to zoonotic pathogens, increasing their circulation and infectious period. Such processes can also create a genetically diverse pathogen pool by allowing more mutations and genetic exchanges between circulating strains, thereby harboring rare alive-on-arrival variants with extended infectivity to new hosts (i.e., spillover). Finally, we end by underscoring the indispensability of a large multidisciplinary empirical framework to explore the proposed link between evolved tolerance, pathogen prevalence, and spillover in the wild.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Three-Dimensional Electromagnetic High Frequency Concave Cavity Scars

This report examines the localization of high frequency electromagnetic fields in general three-dimensional cavities along periodic paths between opposing sides of the cavity. The focus is on the case where the mirrors at the ends of the orbit are concave and have two different radii of curvature. The cases where these orbits lead to unstable localized modes are known as scars. The ellipsoidal coordinate system is utilized in the construction of the scarred modes. The field at the interior foci is examined as well as trigonometric projections along the periodic scarred ray path.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Technical Specification Surveillance Interval Extension Using Self-Diagnostics

As part of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability program, an ongoing research effort is being conducted on technical specifications surveillance interval extension of digital equipment in nuclear power plants. The research team is led by Idaho National Laboratory and includes Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Technology Resources, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This research focuses on developing methods for applying the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)–approved guidance to implement a licensee-controlled, risk-informed surveillance frequency change program in digital instrumentation and control (I&C) systems that include self-diagnostics and online monitoring (OLM) capabilities. Although approved methods exist for extending technical specifications (TS) surveillance test intervals (STIs) for general equipment, including analog I&C equipment, gaps remain in technology and guidance on crediting newer digital equipment’s internal self-diagnostics and OLM characteristics. Previous research described a general methodology for crediting internal self-diagnostics for extending surveillance test intervals. The methodology used self-diagnostics to detect—and credited recovery from—failure. Self-diagnostics were also applied for performance monitoring during the extended surveillance interval. This report discusses the status of recent activities to evaluate the previously developed methodology using a pilot study. Although both a utility partner for a pilot study and a specific digital asset were identified in FY2020, delays in obtaining proprietary information resulted in a limited ability to fully evaluate the methodology, and further interactions were complicated by the COVID pandemic. Therefore, at that time, the use of public-domain information—along with current processes for surveillance interval extension through a surveillance frequency control program—identified the need to fully assess diagnostic coverage as part of the pilot study. Furthermore, self-diagnostics were also identified as a potential option to replace the drift analyses conducted as part of current STI extension procedures. In FY2022, the project was reconstituted with the industry partner, and information and data were made available by the industry partner to the research team for review. The shared information included failure event descriptions and data for a digital I&C system since its implementation, as well as recent STI extension interval reports developed by the utility partner on that digital I&C system. This report presents an evaluation of this information and data and describes an application of the proposed methodology cited above. The methodology seeks to take advantage of the self-diagnostics and OLM capabilities to reduce risk or reduce the level of qualitative monitoring assessment needed to perform a risk-informed STI extension using existing NRC approved guidance or both. Addressing these issues of STI extension by crediting self-diagnostics is likely to result in benefits for current and future nuclear power plant (NPP) operations, including lowering the barriers to adoption of digital I&C systems and increasing cost savings by deferring or eliminating unneeded preventive maintenance (tasks or checks or activities). Specifically, self-diagnostic and OLM capabilities of newer digital equipment being installed in non-safety and safety applications are designed to detect failures, provide early warning of potential failures, and notify plant operators to take appropriate action to reduce out of service (OOS) time thus protecting safety margins. Moreover, the equipment is expected to provide information that time-related operational degradation is identified early to ensure timely and planned corrective actions instead of a reactive and unplanned approach ahead of an extended-surveillance interval.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Type 'A' V/STOL - One aircraft for all support missions

An investigation is conducted regarding the feasibility of developing a single support aircraft type for the Navy, taking into account the current naval inventory of utility aircraft types. Support mission characteristics are examined, giving attention to antisubmarine warfare, airborne early warning, marine assault, carrier on board delivery/vertical on board delivery, the aerial tanker mission, long-range rescue, surface attack, and aspects of combat, search, and rescue. With the aid of a sample design for a V/STOL aircraft with a medium disc loading lift system it is demonstrated that it is now possible to design an aircraft which, with minor modifications, can meet the wide variety of support missions.

Adelt, W. H.↗

Situational Lightning Climatologies

Research has revealed distinct spatial and temporal distributions of lightning occurrence that are strongly influenced by large-scale atmospheric flow regimes. It was believed there were two flow systems, but it has been discovered that actually there are seven distinct flow regimes. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) has recalculated the lightning climatologies for the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF), and the eight airfields in the National Weather Service in Melbourne (NWS MLB) County Warning Area (CWA) using individual lightning strike data to improve the accuracy of the climatologies. The software determines the location of each CG lightning strike with 5-, 10-, 20-, and 30-nmi (.9.3-, 18.5-, 37-, 55.6-km) radii from each airfield. Each CG lightning strike is binned at 1-, 3-, and 6-hour intervals at each specified radius. The software merges the CG lightning strike time intervals and distance with each wind flow regime and creates probability statistics for each time interval, radii, and flow regime, and stratifies them by month and warm season. The AMU also updated the graphical user interface (GUI) with the new data.

Bauman, William↗

Launch Control System Master Console Event Message Reduction

System monitoring and control (SMC) message browsers receive so many messages daily that operators do not need to see. Important messages are often mixed up among the less important ones. My job is to reduce the messages displayed in the message browser so that warning and emergency messages can be seen easily and therefore, responded promptly. There are multiple methods to achieve this. Firstly, duplicate messages should not appear many times in the message browser. Instead, the message should appear only once but with a number that counts the times that it appears. This method is called duplicate message suppression. Secondly, messages that update the most recent state (e.g. up/down) of a component should replace the old-state messages. This method is called state based message correlation. Thirdly, messages that display "normal" alarm level should be suppressed unless it's a response to an operator action. In addition to message reduction, I also work on correcting the severity level and text formats on messages.

messages↗

GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper Performance Specifications and Algorithms

The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is a single channel, near-IR imager/optical transient event detector, used to detect, locate and measure total lightning activity over the full-disk. The next generation NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) series will carry a GLM that will provide continuous day and night observations of lightning. The mission objectives for the GLM are to: (1) Provide continuous, full-disk lightning measurements for storm warning and nowcasting, (2) Provide early warning of tornadic activity, and (2) Accumulate a long-term database to track decadal changes of lightning. The GLM owes its heritage to the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor (1997- present) and the Optical Transient Detector (1995-2000), which were developed for the Earth Observing System and have produced a combined 13 year data record of global lightning activity. GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2 algorithms and applications. The science data will consist of lightning "events", "groups", and "flashes". The algorithm is being designed to be an efficient user of the computational resources. This may include parallelization of the code and the concept of sub-dividing the GLM FOV into regions to be processed in parallel. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional test beds (e.g., Lightning Mapping Arrays in North Alabama, Oklahoma, Central Florida, and the Washington DC Metropolitan area) are being used to develop the prelaunch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution.

Mach, Douglas M.↗

Probabilistic Diffusion Models Advance Extreme Flood Forecasting

Extreme floods pose escalating risks in a changing climate, yet forecasting remains challenging due to peak flow underestimation and high uncertainty. We introduce diffusion-based runoff model (DRUM), a probabilistic deep learning (DL) approach that advances extreme flood forecasting across representative basins in the contiguous United States. DRUM outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks, enhancing nowcasting skill for the top 1‰ of flows in 72.3% of studied basins. Under operational scenarios, DRUM extends reliable lead times by nearly a full day for 20- and 50-year floods. When evaluated with measured precipitation, an ideal condition, recall improves by 0.3–0.4 and the early warning window extends by 2.3 days for 50-year floods. The enhancement potential varies regionally, with precipitation-driven flood zones in the eastern and northwestern US benefiting most, gaining 3–7 days in lead time. These findings highlight the transformative potential of diffusion models as a cutting-edge generative AI technique for advancing hydrology and broader Earth system sciences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deployment Technology of a Heliogyro Solar Sail for Long Duration Propulsion

Interplanetary, multi-mission, station-keeping capabilities will require that a spacecraft employ a highly efficient propulsion-navigation system. The majority of space propulsion systems are fuel-based and require the vehicle to carry and consume fuel as part of the mission. Once the fuel is consumed, the mission is set, thereby limiting the potential capability. Alternatively, a method that derives its acceleration and direction from solar photon pressure using a solar sail would eliminate the requirement of onboard fuel to meet mission objectives. MacNeal theorized that the heliogyro-configured solar sail architecture would be lighter, less complex, cheaper, and less risky to deploy a large sail area versus a masted sail. As sail size increases, the masted sail requires longer booms resulting in increased mass, and chaotic uncontrollable deployment. With a heliogyro, the sail membrane is stowed as a roll of thin film forming a blade when deployed that can extend up to kilometers. Thus, a benefit of using a heliogyro-configured solar sail propulsion technology is the mission scalability as compared to masted versions, which are size constrained. Studies have shown that interplanetary travel is achievable by the heliogyro solar sail concept. Heliogyro solar sail concept also enables multi-mission missions such as sample returns, and supply transportation from Earth to Mars as well as station-keeping missions to provide enhanced warning of solar storm. This paper describes deployment technology being developed at NASA Langley Research Center to deploy and control the center-of-mass/center-of-pressure using a twin bladed heliogyro solar sail 6-unit (6U) CubeSat. The 6U comprises 2x2U blade deployers and 2U for payload. The 2U blade deployers can be mounted to 6U or larger scaled systems to serve as a non-chemical in-space propulsion system. A single solar sail blade length is estimated to be 2.4 km with a total area from two blades of 720 m2; total allowable weight of a 6U CubeSat is approximately 8 kg. This makes the theoretical characteristic acceleration of approximately 0.75 mm/s2 at I AU (astronomical unit), when compared to IKAROS (0.005 mm/s2) and NanoSail-D (0.02 mm/s2).

Peerawan, Wiwattananon↗

D region predictions

Present knowledge of D region phenomena is briefly reviewed and the status of current methods of predicting their effects on radio propagation considered. The ELF, VLF and LF navigational and timing systems depend on the stability of the lower part of the D layer where these waves are reflected, whereas MF and HF waves are absorbed as they penetrate the region, in most cases mainly in the upper part of the layer. Possible methods of improving predictions, warnings, and real time operations are considered with particular stress on those which can be implemented in the near future.

Thrane, E. V.↗