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DOE OSTI2019

Ground-Truth Prediction to Accelerate Soft-Error Impact Analysis for Iterative Methods

Understanding the impact of soft errors on applications can be expensive. Often, it requires an extensive error injection campaign involving numerous runs of the full application in the presence of errors. In this paper, we present a novel approach to arriving at the ground truth--the true impact of an error on the final output--for iterative methods by observing a small number of iterations to learn deviations between normal and error-impacted execution. We develop a machine learning based predictor for three iterative methods to generate ground-truth results without running them to completion for every error injected. We demonstrate that this approach achieves greater accuracy than alternative prediction strategies, including three existing soft error detection strategies. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the ground truth prediction model in evaluating vulnerability and the effectiveness of soft error detection strategies in the context of iterative methods.

iterative methods, failure prediction, Soft error ↗

DOE OSTI2021

PLC-based Impedance Measurement and Current Injection Response Analysis

Studying and mitigating the vulnerabilities of Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs) to electromagnetic pulse is important for the reliability of the power system. In this paper, an effective impedance measurement scheme is proposed to estimate the susceptibility of PLCs to an electromagnetic pulse. The equivalent non-uniform transmission line model is established to eliminate the impact of the fixture in the de-embedding process. Based on the measured impedance, the equivalent circuit is established to calculate the response of the device when subjected to the electromagnetic pulse. The voltage and current responses of different interfaces are compared utilizing the developed pulse Current Injection (CI) method. Finally, the impedance measurement scheme is verified through testing using three measuring instruments. And the CI simulation experiments reveal the characteristics and susceptibilities of different PLCs interfaces, indicating that some protection measures are required for the reliable operation of PLC.

Qiu, Wei↗

DOE OSTI2022

Defensive Islanding to Enhance the Resilience of Distribution Systems Against Cyber-Induced Failures

The extensive integration of communication, computation, and control technologies into cyber-physical power systems (CPPSs) has increased the vulnerabilities of CPPSs to cyberattacks. This calls for developing solutions that assess and reduce the impacts of cyber-induced failures on CPPSs. This paper proposes a defensive islanding strategy to isolate impacted parts of the CPPS and form self-sufficient islanded grids with an objective of minimum load curtailment. The defensive islanding aims to split a power system into smaller grids to improve its resilience against a potential extreme event. A clustering approach that leverages the hierarchical spectral clustering method is utilized for the optimal defensive islanding. The proposed approach captures the fragility behavior and loading conditions of power system components due to cyber-induced failures. A graphical-based coupling framework is used to map the impacts of cyber failures into operation of power system components. The proposed method is demonstrated on a modified 33-node distribution feeder system integrated with distributed energy resources. The amount of load curtailment and radiality constraints have been used to evaluate the performance of the proposed clustering strategies. The results show the capability of the proposed algorithm to create islands considering the cyber-induced failures for enhanced resilience.

cyber-induced failures↗

DOE OSTI2026

FFTSF: Revisiting Sub-Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting with Simple Feedforward Network

Accurate short-to-subseasonal streamflow forecasts are vital for water management, including flood preparedness, drought mitigation, hydropower scheduling, and ecosystem protection. However, extending a forecast beyond a few days remains challenging due to complexity of hydrological processes. While recent self-attention based transformer architectures such as iTransformer have gained traction in time-series forecasting, these models suffer from several critical limitations: (1) significant computational overhead that scales quadratically with sequence length, (2) vulnerability to overfitting on limited hydrological datasets, (3) degraded performance on long-horizon forecasts due to attention decay, and (4) excessive architectural complexity that hampers interpretability and operational deployment. In this study, we propose a simple Feedforward Time Series Forecasting (FFTSF) network that directly addresses these limitations through its lightweight architecture and long-range forecasting capabilities. We evaluate FFTSF across 178 USGS stream gauges spanning diverse climate regimes by forecasting lead times of 1-, 7-, 14-, and 30-days. Our results demonstrate that FFTSF achieves competitive performance at short lead times (NSE of 0.778 for 1-day forecasts) while substantially outperforming complex baselines at longer forecast period, achieving the highest NSE (0.271) at 30-day forecasts with greater robustness and stability. For 30-day forecasts, FFTSF achieves a 71% improvement over NLinear, 57% improvement over DLinear and 12% improvement over the computationally intensive iTransformer while requiring fewer computational resources. Our findings reveal that architectural complexity is not necessary for hydrological forecasting, demonstrating that well-designed simple models can outperform attention mechanisms for subseasonal streamflow forecasting. The computational efficiency and consistent long-range performance of FFTSF make it suitable for water management applications where reliable extended forecasts are essential.

Krishnan Kutty Ambika, Anukesh [ORNL] (ORCID:00000↗

DOE OSTI2025

AI-based Cyber Event OSINT via Twitter Data

Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) is largely regarded as a necessary component for cybersecurity intelligence gathering to secure network systems. With the advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) and increasing usage of social media, like Twitter, we have a unique opportunity to obtain and aggregate information from social media. In this study, we propose an AI-based scheme capable of automatically pulling information from Twitter, filtering out security-irrelevant tweets, performing natural language analysis to correlate the tweets about each cybersecurity event (e.g., a malware campaign), and validating the information. This scheme has many applications, such as providing a means for security operators to gain insight into ongoing events and helping them prioritize vulnerabilities to deal with. To give examples of the possible uses, we present three case studies demonstrating the event discovery and investigation processes.

Dale, Dakota↗

DOE OSTI2024

Disruption of Commercial Solar Inverter System by TLS Proxy Man-in-the-Middle Attack

Transport Layer Security (TLS) is a cryptographic protocol that encrypts communication data, providing end-to-end communication encryption and authentication. Currently, TLS is widely adopted for securing communication between servers and end devices, including solar inverter systems. Therefore, users/operators can securely access the solar inverters through a web user interface (WebUI) application programmable interface (API) on a PC or server over TLS-enabled Wi-Fi or Ethernet. However, the security of the TLS-based network becomes compromised if it is breached by a TLS proxy man-in-the-middle (MITM) exploit. This report explores potential vulnerabilities in a commercial solar inverter system that leverages a TLS proxy MITM and discusses the impacts through assume-breached penetration testing. Furthermore, the paper explores recommended mitigation methods against the TLS proxy MITM exploit in solar inverters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Smart Data Mapping for Connecting Power System Model and Geospatial Data

Knowing the geospatial locations of power system model elements is the foundation for analyzing system vulnerability to natural hazards and connecting loads with end users and their communities. However, power system models and geospatial data for power grid assets may have been developed asynchronously without close coordination. Creating a direct mapping between the two may be a challenging task, considering heterogeneous data structures, target uses, historical legacies, and human errors. This work aims to build an automatic data mapping workflow to connect power system model elements and geospatial data for transmission network, and to support energy grid resilience studies for Puerto Rico. The primary steps in this workflow include constructing graphs using geospatial data, and aligning them to the transmission networks defined in the power system data. The results have been evaluated against existing manual mapping practices for part of the Puerto Rico Power Grid model to illustrate the performance of such auto-mapping solutions.

Resilience, geospatial data, grid transmission net↗

DOE OSTI2020

Attack on Grid Event Cause Analysis: An Adversarial Machine Learning Approach

With the ever-increasing reliance on data for data-driven applications in power grids, such as event cause analysis, the authenticity of data streams has become crucially important. The data can be prone to adversarial stealthy attacks aiming to manipulate the data such that residual-based bad data detectors cannot detect them, and the perception of system operators or event classifiers changes about the actual event. This paper investigates the impact of adversarial attacks on convolutional neural network-based event cause analysis frameworks. We have successfully verified the ability of adversaries to maliciously misclassify events through stealthy data manipulations. The vulnerability assessment is studied with respect to the number of compromised measurements. Furthermore, a defense mechanism to robustify the performance of the event cause analysis is proposed. The effectiveness of adversarial attacks on changing the output of the framework is studied using the data generated by real-time digital simulator (RTDS) under different scenarios such as type of attacks and level of access to data.

Niazazari, Iman↗

DOE OSTI2021

Precise Timing Based on Pulsar Observation for Grid Synchronization

While Global Positioning System signals are widely used as the synchronized timing Sources for wide-area measurement systems for power grid monitoring and control, they are vulnerable to failures and malicious attacks. To address this Problem, an alternative kind of timing sources, the millisecond pulsars, were proposed to serve the power grid as they are more precise and physically indestructible. Millisecond pulsars are a kind of neutron stars that emit radio pulse signals that have extremely stable periods of milliseconds. However, the observed pulse Signals from pulsars cannot be directly used for timing because of their low signal-to-noise ratio and the dispersion effects of interstellar medium. In this paper, the precise timing method based on pulsar observation data is proposed to interpret the pulsar observation data and therefrom to generate precise timing signal for the power grid synchronization. In our proposed method,. incoherent de-dispersion is used on the observation data to mitigate the effect of interstellar medium. dispersion. Then spectrum analysis and segment folding are used to precisely estimate the local pulsar period. Finally the standard pulse per second signal is generated from. the estimated pulsar period and its precision. is analyzed. Experiments with the observation data of the pulsar based timing signal can be more accurate compared to GPS timing signals.

Luo, Xiqian↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sequential Perturbation-based FDIA Detection using DERs for Unbalanced Distribution System

The power distribution system with its reliance on automated monitoring and control infrastructure makes it a complicated cyber-physical system and vulnerable to various cyber-attacks. This paper proposes a moving target defense inspired false data injection attack (FDIA) detection mechanism for an unbalanced distribution system. In the proposed grid diagnosis service framework, the distribution system operator judiciously manipulates power outputs of a subset of inverter-based distribution energy resources (DERs) to create secret low magnitude voltage perturbations which are inconsequential to the normal operation of the grid. A mixed-integer-linear-programming algorithm is developed to select the optimal set of DERs that can create a voltage perturbation signal of the required magnitude at each sensor location at a minimum cost. Then, a sequential detector is applied that detects for the FDIA as measurements are received from individual sensors. The performance of the proposed perturbation-based FDIA detection framework is demonstrated via simulation of the IEEE 123 bus test system.

Attack Detection↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impact Analysis of Data Integrity Attacks on FACTS-based Wide-Area Voltage Control System

Energy management system (EMS) consists of several wide-area control applications that serve as a backbone for security, stability, and reliability of the power system. Wide-area voltage control system (WAVCS), one of the critical wide-area applications, operates in coordination with local Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) devices to provide voltage security and optimal management of active and reactive power resources. Since the WAVCS relies on wide-area communication and data sharing devices, possible cybersecurity vulnerabilities have to be addressed to ensure the closed-loop operation of WAVCS. In this paper, we present a methodology for performing an impact analysis of cyber-attacks in WAVCS cybersecurity. In particular, different types of data integrity attacks, such as malicious tripping, fault replay, and signal altering attacks, are considered, and detailed impact analysis is conducted in a testbed environment using the Kundur's four machine two-area system. For performing an impact analysis, the transient voltage stability of the sensitive bus voltage is studied, followed by the quantitative assessment and severity ranking using the voltage profile index. Our experimental evaluation reveals that the data integrity attacks on control signals exhibit a higher attack severity than on the measurement signals. Further, the severity of these attacks varies with nature (static or dynamic), location, and types of attacks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Analyzing the Effects of Cyberattacks on Distribution System State Estimation

Key components of power systems—such as energy management systems, automatic generation control, and state estimation—are under serious vulnerability from cyberattacks. Cyber threats in electric grids have increased significantly because of the increased interconnectivity of supervisory control and data acquisition systems and public network infrastructure. As the penetration level of distributed energy resources increases, it is imperative to employ system-monitoring techniques such as state estimation for the reliable operation of distribution systems. Recently, multiple methods have been developed that exploit the low rank property of distribution system state matrix and are robust to bad data, such as matrix completion. This paper analyzes the impact of various realistic cyberattack scenarios on matrix completion. Realistic cyberattack scenarios are converted into data corruption models that are used in an extensive simulation of a custom IEEE 123-bus system.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Data-Driven Democratized Control Architecture for Regional Transmission Operators

As probably the most complicated and critical infrastructure system, U.S. power grids become increasingly vulnerable to extreme events such as cyber-attacks and severe weather, as well as higher DER penetrations and growing information mismatch among system operators, utilities (transmission or generation owners), and end-users. This paper proposes a data-driven democratized control architecture considering two democratization pathways to assist transmission system operators, with a targeted use case of developing online proactive islanding strategies. Detailed discussions on load capability profiling at transmission buses and disaggregation of DER generations are provided and illustrated with real-world utility data. By Combining network and operational constraints, transmission system operators can be equipped with new tools built on top of this architecture, to derive accurate, proactive, and strategic islanding decisions to incorporate the wide range of dynamic portfolios and needs when facing extreme events or unseen grid contingencies.

Power System Reliability, Islanding, Democratized ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Resilient Communication Scheme for Distributed Decision of Interconnecting Networks of Microgrids

Networking of microgrids can provide the operational flexibility needed for the increasing number of DERs deployed at the distribution level and supporting end-use demand when there is loss of the bulk power system. But, networked microgrids are vulnerable to cyber-physical attacks and faults due to the complex interconnections. As such, it is necessary To design resilient control systems to support the operations of networked microgrids in responses to cyber-physical attacks and faults. This paper introduces a resilient communication scheme for interconnecting multiple microgrids to support critical demand, in which the interconnection decision can be made distributedly by each microgrid controller even in the presence of cyberattacks to some communication links or microgrid controllers. This scheme blends a randomized peer-to-peer communication network for exchanging information among controllers and resilient consensus algorithms for achieving reliable interconnection agreement. The network of 6 microgrids divided from a modified 123-node test distribution feeder is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed resilient communication scheme.

Vu, Thanh Long↗

DOE OSTI2023

Advancing Energy Equity Considerations in Distribution Systems Planning

Current distribution system planning (DSP) processes do not explicitly account for energy equity considerations, such as who is most affected by power system burdens, where those burdens are concentrated, and what investments can be made to improve baseline conditions. This paper proposes an iterative framework for advancing energy equity as an objective of the DSP process, showing how measurement strategies, or metrics (informed by conceptual foundations of energy justice), can be applied to benchmark equity performance at various stages. This methodology is applied for equity-aware distributed energy resource (DER) hosting capacity analysis and outage analysis to provide critical insights on infrastructure upgrade decisions compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) case. The analysis is performed on a taxonomy feeder representing the West Coast urban/semi-urban system with augmentation of electric vehicles (EVs) and rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) generators. The study considers disadvantaged community (DAC) and non-disadvantaged community (NDAC) load regions to enable equity-aware simulations. The results demonstrate how equity-aware planning could reveal the limitations of the traditional DSP process as DAC regions are found to have lower DER hosting capacity and higher outage vulnerability. Overall, this work provides insights on the need to incorporate energy equity as an integral part of the DSP process.

Energy Equity, Distribution System Planning, DER a↗

DOE OSTI2023

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Distribution System Cyber Attack Defense with DERs

The use of smart inverter capabilities of distributed energy resources (DERs) enhances the grid reliability but in the meanwhile exhibits more vulnerabilities to cyber-attacks. This paper proposes a deep reinforcement learning (DRL)-based defense approach. The defense problem is reformulated as a Markov decision making process to control DERs and minimizing load shedding to address the voltage violations caused by cyber-attacks. The original soft actor-critic (SAC) method for continuous actions has been extended to handle discrete and continuous actions for controlling DERs' setpoints and loadshedding scenarios. Numerical comparison results with other control approaches, such as Volt-VAR and Volt-Watt on the modified IEEE 33-node, show that the proposed method can achieve better voltage regulation and have less power losses in the presence of cyber-attacks.

active distribution systems↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Unified Metric for Fast Frequency Response in Low-Inertia Power Systems

Future power systems with more inverter-based resources (IBRs), will be vulnerable to frequency decline contingencies. Fast frequency response (FFR) provided by IBRs is a good candidate to arrest frequency excursions. Diverse types of FFR have been proposed, and some have been deployed in our power systems. Without a unified quantification of FFR, it is hard for the grid operators to compare and fully leverage the FFR capabilities of IBRs. This work introduces a potential unified metric that quantifies two key characteristics of FFR and describes its application to three prevailing FFR types. We then use metric-to-frequency mapping to validate the accuracy of the metric in predicting the impact of a given FFR on the trajectory of a frequency event. The results show that the proposed metric is simple yet accurately captures the ability of diverse forms of FFR to improve system frequency dynamics.

effective inertia↗

DOE OSTI2024

Communication Network Layer State Estimation Measurement Model for a Cyber-Secure Smart Grid

Network communication has been proven to be a very important tool and a key factor in the recent development and progress of the power grid operation. It is also considered as the foundation for the smart grid because information and communication are integrated into electricity distribution to achieve reliable and accurate knowledge of the power grid. In previous years, absorbing energy from substations and delivering it to customers was the only type of interaction we knew between utility companies and customers. Presently, the growing connections of small distributed generation units caused by the cost reduction of most of the technologies used in generation and storage of electrical energy, along with the potential benefits of renewable energy have pushed many researchers to look into the improvement of information and communication technologies (ICT) in order to ensure a bidirectional flow of power and data. Moreover, the evolution of information and communication technologies and its applications to smart grid have converted the smart grid into a cyber-physical system where vulnerabilities and additional security challenges such as cyber-threats and cyber-attacks have emerged. Previously, we have demonstrated that using machine learning-based processing on data gathered from communication networks and the power grid was a promising solution for detecting cyber threats by implementing a co-simulation of cyber-security for cross-layer strategy. Since the majority of the challenges observed can only be solved in the network communication layer, we present in this work a physics-based state estimation model of the communication network system towards enhanced cyber-physical security of the smart grid. Information integration with the previously developed machine learning model is developed, providing a enhanced cyber-physical security application for the smart grid. Easy-to-implement model, without hard-to-derive parameters, highlight potential aspects of the model for real-life applications.

Mathieu, Reynold↗