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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling Tool Development and Validation for Solar Industry Process Heat Using Particle Thermal Energy Storage

U.S. industry sectors used 26.2 quadrillion Btu and accounted for 33% of total energy consumption in 2021 according to the Energy Information Agency. Industrial process heat accounts for 70% of industrial energy use with application temperatures ranging from 60 degrees -1100 degrees C. Industry processes, heavily relying on fossil fuels of cheap coal or natural gas, differ widely in operating conditions and load requirements which makes them difficult to standardize and imposes great challenges in decarbonization. Industry processes require reliable energy supply and vary widely in temperature ranges. Storing energy from renewable sources is necessary to improve reliability and to mitigate renewable intermittency when replacing carbon fuel-based heat supplies to achieve energy savings and reduce emissions. To this end, we have developed a particle-based thermal energy storage (TES) technology using low-cost and highly stable silica sand as a storage medium. The economic and performance-based analysis is key for renewable energy sources to reliably supply industry process heat and ultimately displace fossil fuels for decarbonization. The diversified industrial processes need case-by-case analysis and design. Therefore, an adaptive modeling tool is key for renewable power with energy storage to meet industry demands. Thus, a modeling tool to simulate a solar industry process heat system using the particle TES has been developed using the object-oriented equation-based language Modelica and the commercial platform of Modelon Impact. The Modelica-based software tool provides a general simulation environment for the design of reliable solar energy sources integrated with TES for various industrial process applications at different temperatures for economic competence with fossil fuels such as coal and natural gases. It uses both customized and standard component modeling modules in Modelon libraries for the flexibility to be adapted to a specific energy demand application. The particle TES system establishes a uniform energy supply platform with an efficient heat exchanger and particle thermal energy reservoir integrated with renewable powers. The particle TES system can provide a wide temperature range and can have a large storage temperature difference that increases storage energy density; therefore, it can be an adaptable energy storage system integrated with renewable power to supply 24/7 heat for industry decarbonization.

concentrated solar thermal↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar Thermochemical Carbon Dioxide Splitting Using Ceria and Iron Aluminate Foam Devices and Simulation of a Plant System for Demonstration

An international research project has been undertaken to integrate a unique solar thermal processing reactor system with ceria and iron aluminate as active redox materials for CO2 splitting. Experimental investigations for CO2 splitting were conducted using a solar simulator and tube furnace at Niigata University, followed by demonstrations using a high-flux solar furnace (HFSF) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in Golden, CO. Each experimental setup consisted of foam devices composed of reticulated porous ceramic (RPC). The RPC has a full ceria or iron aluminate body. It fabricated using the replica method and subjected to a two-step redox reaction, which iteratively separated a stream of CO2 into O2 and CO. Reactivity was evaluated using CO production per mass of the reactive material. The tubular furnace yielded a CO production of 6.41 mL/g at a reduction temperature of 1600degrees C, showcasing a higher CO production rate and total amount than those obtained from experiments conducted with solar simulators and solar furnace setups. For iron aluminate RPC, the productivity was measured as 3.57 mL/g using HFSF at a reduction temperature of 1450degrees C. These results are somewhat higher than those of the previous experiment at lower reduction temperatures of 1400degrees C-1500degrees C. Additionally, the production of CO in the case of ceria RPC was compared with the steady flow model simulation, which assumed chemical equilibrium at various levels of oxygen partial pressure during the reduction process. On the basis of these results, this study proposes a solar fuel system with an open receiver that uses a high-temperature heat transfer fluid.

carbon dioxide thermochemical splitting↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of useful ion yield for Si in GaN by secondary ion mass spectrometry

The optimum detection levels that can be achieved by a secondary ion mass spectrometer are dependent on how efficiently a particular species of interest can be ionized and detected. One can determine in advance whether the analysis of a particular ion in the sample is possible, if the useful ion yield is known. The useful ion yield depends on the element, instrument transmission, the analytical conditions, the sample matrix, etc. The value of the useful ion yield for a species can diverge from one instrument type to another due to its different transmission and ionization probabilities. However, the same tendencies in the results may be expected for all types of instruments. In this paper, the authors present a quantitative secondary ion mass spectrometry analysis of the useful ion yield for the silicon dopant species in a gallium nitride matrix grown by metal organic chemical vapor deposition. Positively ionized cesium was used as the primary ion beam, and its energy was varied in the range from 0.5 to 5 kV. A quadrupole mass analyzer was utilized to collect secondary ion species of interest. The analysis results can be used to determine the primary beam energies for optimal Si sensitivity.

Senevirathna, M. K. Indika (ORCID:0000000243575029↗
DOE OSTI2024

Complex-valued universal linear transformations and image encryption using spatially incoherent diffractive networks

As an optical processor, a diffractive deep neural network (D2NN) utilizes engineered diffractive surfaces designed through machine learning to perform all-optical information processing, completing its tasks at the speed of light propagation through thin optical layers. With sufficient degrees of freedom, D2NNs can perform arbitrary complex-valued linear transformations using spatially coherent light. Similarly, D2NNs can also perform arbitrary linear intensity transformations with spatially incoherent illumination; however, under spatially incoherent light, these transformations are nonnegative, acting on diffraction-limited optical intensity patterns at the input field of view. Here, we expand the use of spatially incoherent D2NNs to complex-valued information processing for executing arbitrary complex-valued linear transformations using spatially incoherent light. Through simulations, we show that as the number of optimized diffractive features increases beyond a threshold dictated by the multiplication of the input and output space-bandwidth products, a spatially incoherent diffractive visual processor can approximate any complex-valued linear transformation and be used for all-optical image encryption using incoherent illumination. The findings are important for the all-optical processing of information under natural light using various forms of diffractive surface-based optical processors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using a Large Language Model as a Building Block to Generate Usable Validation and Verification Suite for OpenMP

In the HPC area, both hardware and software move quickly. Often new hardware is developed and deployed, the corresponding software stack, including compilers and other tools, are under active development while leading edge software developers are working to port and tune their applications, all at the same time. While the software ecosystem is in flux, one of the key challenges for users is obtaining insight into the state of implementation of key features in the programming languages and models their applications are using – whether they have been implemented, and whether the implementation conforms to the specification, especially for newly implemented features (less tested by widespread use). OpenMP is one of the most prominent shared memory programming models used for on-node programming in HPC. With the shift towards accelerators (such as GPUs and FPGAs) and heterogeneous programming OpenMP features are getting more complex. It is natural to ask whether generative AI approaches, and large language models (LLMs) in particular, can help in producing validation and verification test suites to allow users better and faster insights into the availability and correctness of OpenMP features of interest. In this work, we explore the use of ChatGPT-4 to generate a suite of tests for OpenMP features. We have chosen a set of directives and clauses, a total of 78 combinations, which first appeared in OpenMP 3.0 (released in May 2008) but are also relevant for accelerators. We prompted ChatGPT to generate tests in the C and Fortran languages, for both host (CPU) and device (accelerator). On the Summit super-computer using the GNU implementation, we found that, of the 78 generated tests 67 C tests and 43 Fortran tests compiled successfully and fewer than those executed to completion. On further analysis we show that not all generated tests are valid. We document the process, results, and provide detailed analysis regarding the quality of tests generated. With the aim of providing input to a production quality validation and verification suite, we manually implement the corrections required to make the tests valid according to the current OpenMP specification. We quantify this effort as small, medium, or large, and record the lines of code changed to correct the invalid tests. With the corrected tests we validate recent implementations from HPE, AMD, and GNU on the Frontier supercomputer. Our experiment and subsequent analysis show that although LLMs are capable of producing HPC specific codes, they are limited by their understanding of the deeper semantics and restrictions of programming models such as OpenMP. Unsurprisingly more commonly used features have better support, while some OpenMP 3.0 directives such as sections and tasking are not universally supported on accelerators. We demonstrate that successful compilation and execution to completion are inadequate metrics for evaluating generated code and that, at this time, commodity LLMs require expert intervention for code verification. This points to gaps in the training data that is currently available for HPC. We demonstrate that with "small" effort 37% of generated invalid C tests and 63% of generated invalid Fortran tests could be corrected. This improves productivity of test generation as we circumvent writing from scratch and the common programming errors associated with it.

Pophale, Swaroop [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000185446367)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Methods—Kintsugi Imaging of Battery Electrodes: Distinguishing Pores from the Carbon Binder Domain using Pt Deposition

The mesostructure of porous electrodes used in lithium-ion batteries strongly influences cell performance. Accurate imaging of the distribution of phases in these electrodes would allow this relationship to be better understood through simulation. However, imaging the nanoscale features in these components is challenging. While scanning electron microscopy is able to achieve the required resolution, it has well established difficulties imaging porous media. This is because the flat imaging planes prepared using focused ion beam milling will intersect with the pores, which makes the images hard to interpret as the inside walls of the pores are observed. It is common to infiltrate porous media with resin prior to imaging to help resolve this issue, but both the nanoscale porosity and the chemical similarity of the resins to the battery materials undermine the utility of this approach for most electrodes. In this study, a technique is demonstrated which uses in situ infiltration of platinum to fill the pores and thus enhance their contrast during imaging. Reminiscent of the Japanese art of repairing cracked ceramics with precious metals, this technique is referred to as the kintsugi method. The images resulting from applying this technique to a conventional porous cathode are presented and then segmented using a multi-channel convolutional method. We show that while some cracks in active material particles were empty, others appear to be filled (perhaps with the carbon binder phase), which will have implications for the rate performance of the cell. Energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy was used to validate the distribution of phases resulting from image analysis, which also suggested a graded distribution of the binder relative to the carbon additive. The equipment required to use the kintsugi method is commonly available in major research facilities and so we hope that this method will be rapidly adopted to improve the imaging of electrode materials and porous media in general.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Searching for a Pulse: Evaluating the Use of Rapid DC Pulses for Diagnosing Battery Health, State-of-Charge, and Safety

Rapid electrochemical diagnostics, like DC pulse sequences or electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, are known to be useful for capacity prediction. However, it is unclear how previous results will map to different cell types and use cases and whether rapid diagnostics are useful for remaining useful life prediction or for detecting potential safety issues. To that end, we have collected a data set with ∼50,000 DC pulse measurements from four types of commercial lithium-ion batteries to enable training of state-of-charge, health, and safety diagnostic models via machine-learning. We demonstrate that 120-second DC pulse sequences can be used to predict capacity with 2%–9% average error, which can separate high- from low-capacity cells with only a 0.3% false positive rate but is not accurate enough to estimate remaining useful life. We also find that no safety related targets can be accurately predicted, highlighting the critical need for other non-invasive methods to diagnose battery safety.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automation Scripts for Feeder Analysis using CymPy

SAND2025-00330O Automation Scripts for Feeder Analysis using CymPy is a software tool that uses Python scripts to automate the analysis of power system feeders using CYME software. Utilities and researchers can use it to perform various types of analyses by leveraging the capabilities of CYME. The scripts use the CymPy library to interface with CYME and automate the analysis process. The software uses standard Python libraries along with the Eaton CymPy library. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525

Reno, Matthew↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Predictability of Daily Southeast U.S. Precipitation Using Explainable Machine Learning

Abstract We investigate the predictability of the sign of daily southeastern U.S. (SEUS) precipitation anomalies associated with simultaneous predictors of large-scale climate variability using machine learning models. Models using index-based climate predictors and gridded fields of large-scale circulation as predictors are utilized. Logistic regression (LR) and fully connected neural networks using indices of climate phenomena as predictors produce neither accurate nor reliable predictions, indicating that the indices themselves are not good predictors. Using gridded fields as predictors, an LR and convolutional neural network (CNN) are more accurate than the index-based models. However, only the CNN can produce reliable predictions that can be used to identify forecasts of opportunity. Using explainable machine learning we identify which variables and grid points of the input fields are most relevant for confident and correct predictions in the CNN. Our results show that the local circulation is most important as represented by maximum relevance of 850-hPa geopotential heights and zonal winds to making skillful, high-probability predictions. Corresponding composite anomalies identify connections with El Niño–Southern Oscillation during winter and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and North Atlantic subtropical high during summer.

Pegion, Kathy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation and Intercomparison of Small Uncrewed Aircraft Systems Used for Atmospheric Research

Abstract Small uncrewed aircraft systems (sUAS) are regularly being used to conduct atmospheric research and are starting to be used as a data source for informing weather models through data assimilation. However, only a limited number of studies have been conducted to evaluate the performance of these systems and assess their ability to replicate measurements from more traditional sensors such as radiosondes and towers. In the current work, we use data collected in central Oklahoma over a 2-week period to offer insight into the performance of five different sUAS platforms and associated sensors in measuring key weather data. This includes data from three rotary-wing and two fixed-wing sUAS and included two commercially available systems and three university-developed research systems. Flight data were compared to regular radiosondes launched at the flight location, tower observations, and intercompared with data from other sUAS platforms. All platforms were shown to measure atmospheric state with reasonable accuracy, though there were some consistent biases detected for individual platforms. This information can be used to inform future studies using these platforms and is currently being used to provide estimated error covariances as required in support of assimilation of sUAS data into weather forecasting systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of the EarthSHAB Stratospheric Solar Hot Air Balloon Flight Prediction Model Using Balloon Trajectory Data

Abstract The heliotrope is a solar balloon design which is constructed out of painter’s plastic, and the exterior is coated in charcoal powder. Darkening the plastic gives the balloon a high solar absorptance, which allows it to ascend into the lower stratosphere and float for hours at a time. The balloons have previously been used to lift scientific instruments into the stratosphere to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, and stratospheric aerosols. They have also been proposed as a platform for planetary exploration. Flight predictions are crucial to preflight planning to reduce safety risks and meet flight objectives. However, there exists a wide range of possible flight paths due to varying environmental conditions and solar balloon configurations. EarthSHAB is one such software that was designed to support flight planning using the weather forecasts and balloon properties to predict the flight path of a solar balloon. We compare EarthSHAB-simulated flight paths to a set of observed flight paths for the 3.5-m diameter heliotrope design called the “Cloudskimmer.” Using the criteria that the modeled paths must fall within 5% of the observations to be considered successful, we found that EarthSHAB successfully predicted the Cloudskimmer ascent rate and average float altitude 10% and 90% of the time, respectively. We also found that the average difference in the observed and predicted landing locations was 97 km and landing times were 54 ± 38 min. Significant deviations between the observed and predicted ascent rates and excursions at float were found to be associated with heavy payloads and convective cloud development, respectively. Significance Statement Solar balloons are used to lift scientific instruments into the lower stratosphere for hours at a time to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, stratospheric aerosols, and more. The flight paths of solar balloons can be difficult to predict due to variability in their design and surrounding environment. We evaluate the accuracy of EarthSHAB, a software that predicts the altitude profile and horizontal trajectory of a solar balloon using inputs such as the weather, balloon size, and balloon mass. Our results suggest that for the balloon design used in this study, EarthSHAB is best suited for modeling the behavior of balloons with lightweight payloads that do not fly within or directly above clouds.

Lien, Jessica M. [Sandia National Laboratories, Al↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamically Collected Local Density using Low-Cost Lidar and its Application to Traffic Models

This article demonstrates the use of traffic density observations collected dynamically in the vicinity of probe vehicles. Fixed position sensors cannot capture the longitudinal evolution of local traffic density in the corridor. In this research, dynamic traffic density observations were collected in a naturalistic driving setting that was free of any controlled experiment biases. Speed from global positioning system and space headway from a light detection and ranging module was collected on one arterial and one freeway segment, 2 and 4mi long, respectively. The combined data frequency was approximately 3Hz. Space headway was used to estimate the local density and consequently to identify the density of a specific location in a corridor. Besides, driver behavior was characterized using the relationship between instantaneous speed and local density under different regimes of the Wiedemann car-following model. Macroscopic traffic stream models were used to investigate the relationship between dynamically collected instantaneous speed and local density. Using the longitudinal evolution of density, precise local density across the corridor can be obtained along with the leader and follower trajectories. A method to identify driver behavior across density ranges was developed for different facility types using a microscopic relationship between instantaneous speed and local density. Overall driving behavior on the freeway segment can be represented by translating the instantaneous speed and local density relationship to macroscopic stream models.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2021

Protocols for isolating and characterizing polysaccharides from plant cell walls: a case study using rhamnogalacturonan-II

Abstract Background In plants, a large diversity of polysaccharides comprise the cell wall. Each major type of plant cell wall polysaccharide, including cellulose, hemicellulose, and pectin, has distinct structures and functions that contribute to wall mechanics and influence plant morphogenesis. In recent years, pectin valorization has attracted much attention due to its expanding roles in biomass deconstruction, food and material science, and environmental remediation. However, pectin utilization has been limited by our incomplete knowledge of its structure. Herein, we present a workflow of principles relevant for the characterization of polysaccharide primary structure using nature’s most complex polysaccharide, rhamnogalacturonan-II (RG-II), as a model. Results We outline how to isolate RG-II from celery and duckweed cell walls and from red wine using chemical or enzymatic treatments coupled with size-exclusion chromatography. From there, we applied mass spectrometry (MS)-based techniques to determine the glycosyl residue and linkage compositions of the intact RG-II and derived oligosaccharides including special considerations for labile monosaccharides. In doing so, we demonstrated that in the duckweed Wolffiella repanda the arabinopyranosyl (Ara p ) residue of side chain B is substituted at O- 2 with rhamnose. We used electrospray-MS techniques to identify non-glycosyl modifications including methyl-ethers, methyl-esters, and acetyl-esters on RG-II-derived oligosaccharides. We then showed the utility of proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy ( 1 H-NMR) to investigate the structure of intact RG-II and to complement the RG-II dimerization studies performed using size-exclusion chromatography. Conclusions The complexity of pectic polysaccharide structures has hampered efforts aimed at their valorization. In this work, we used RG-II as a model to demonstrate the steps necessary to isolate and characterize polysaccharides using chromatographic, MS, and NMR techniques. The principles can be applied to the characterization of other saccharide structures and will help inform researchers on how saccharide structure relates to functional properties in the future.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Rapid measurement of soluble xylo-oligomers using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) and multivariate statistics: calibration model development and practical approaches to model optimization

Rapid monitoring of biomass conversion processes using techniques such as near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy can be substantially quicker and less labor-, resource-, and energy-intensive than conventional measurement techniques such as gas or liquid chromatography (GC or LC) due to the lack of solvents and preparation methods, as well as removing the need to transfer samples to an external lab for analytical evaluation. The purpose of this study was to determine the feasibility of rapid monitoring of a biomass conversion process using NIR spectroscopy combined with multivariate statistical modeling, and to examine the impact of (1) subsetting the samples in the original dataset by process location and (2) reducing the spectral range used in the calibration model on model performance. We develop multivariate calibration models for the concentrations of soluble xylo-oligosaccharides (XOS), monomeric xylose, and total solids at multiple points in a biomass conversion process which produces and then purifies XOS compounds from sugar cane bagasse. A single model using samples from multiple locations in the process stream showed acceptable performance as measured by standard statistical measures. However, compared to the single model, we show that separate models built by segregating the calibration samples according to process location show improved performance. We also show that combining an understanding of the sample spectra with simple multivariate analysis tools can result in a calibration model with a substantially smaller spectral range that provides essentially equal performance to the full-range model. We demonstrate that real-time monitoring of soluble xylo-oligosaccharides (XOS), monomeric xylose, and total solids concentration at multiple points in a process stream using NIR spectroscopy coupled with multivariate statistics is feasible. Segregation of sample populations by process location improves model performance. Models using a reduced spectral range containing the most relevant spectral signatures show very similar performance to the full-range model, reinforcing the importance of performing robust exploratory data analysis before beginning multivariate modeling.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The use of nocturnal flights for barrier crossing in a diurnally migrating songbird

The migration patterns of land birds can generally be divided into those species that migrate principally during the day and those that migrate during the night. Some species may show individual plasticity in the use of day or night flight, particularly when crossing large, open-water or desert barriers. However, individual plasticity in circadian patterns of migratory flights in diurnally migrating songbirds has never been investigated. We used high precision GPS tracking of a diurnal, migratory swallow, the purple martin (Progne subis), to determine whether individuals were flexible in their spring migration strategies to include some night flight, particularly at barrier crossing. Most (91%) of individuals made large (sometimes > 1000 km), open-water crossings of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico that included the use of night flight. 32% of all water crossings were initiated at night, demonstrating that night flight is not only used to complete large crossings but may confer other advantages for diurnal birds. Birds were not more likely to initiate crossings with supportive winds, however crossings were more likely when they reduced travel distances. Our results are consistent with diurnal birds using night flight to help achieve time- and energy-savings through ‘short cuts’ at barrier crossings, at times and locations when foraging opportunities are not available. Overall, our results demonstrate the use of nocturnal flight and a high degree of individual plasticity in migration strategies on a circadian scale in a species generally considered to be a diurnal migrant. Nocturnal flights at barrier crossing may provide time and energy savings where foraging opportunities are low in an otherwise diurnal strategy. Future research should target how diel foraging and refueling strategies support nocturnal flights and barrier crossing in this and other diurnal species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data from Technical and Economic Feasibility of an Integrated Ethanol and Anthocyanin Coproduction Process Using Purple Corn Stover

The coproduction of high-value anthocyanin extract in the cellulosic ethanol process would diversify the co-product market, increase revenue, and potentially improve the economics of the process. The high anthocyanin concentration in the cob and structural carbohydrates in residual stover make purple corn stover an attractive source for anthocyanin and ethanol coproduction. This study aimed to develop simulation models for processes integrating ethanol production and anthocyanin extraction using purple corn stover, to evaluate their techno-economic feasibility, and to compare their performance with the conventional ethanol production process using corn stover. The annual ethanol production for plants processing 2000 MT dry feedstock / day was 148.6 million L/year for the integrated processes compared with 222.6 million L/year for the conventional process. Anthocyanin production in the modified processes using dilute acid-based and water-based anthocyanin extraction processes was 1779 and 1099 MT/year, respectively. Capital investments for the integrated processes ($448.1 to $443.8 million) were higher than the conventional process ($371.9 million). Due to high revenue from anthocyanin extract, the ethanol production cost for the integrated process using acid-based anthocyanin extraction ($0.36/L) was 34.5% lower than conventional ethanol production ($0.55/L). The ethanol production cost for the integrated process using water-based anthocyanin extraction ($0.68/L) was higher than conventional ethanol production due to low ethanol and anthocyanin yields. The minimum ethanol selling price for the integrated process using acid-based anthocyanin extraction ($0.65/L) was also lower than the conventional process ($0.72/L), indicating an improvement in economic performance.

Conversion↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neutronics Modeling of the pulsed plasma rocket reactor using rattlesnake

In the pulsed plasma rocket (PPR) reactor, neutron induced fission processes are utilized to implement a series of pulsed micro-explosions of very high power and eject plasma as a propellant. More specifically, projectiles (bullets) composed of moderated uranium are sent through the chamber of an unmoderated uranium barrel. By inducing rapid fission within the bullets, a plasma can be generated with appropriate delivery of neutrons. This study aims to assess the neutronics performance of the PPR reactor during normal operations using the MOOSE-based Rattlesnake code through the evaluation of the impact of the movement of the fuel bullet and the rotation of control drums on the criticality of the system. The Monte Carlo (MC) code Serpent 2 was employed to generate material-based cross sections for use in Rattlesnake and the reference neutronics solution. Cubit was used to generate the mesh for the Rattlesnake model. Parametric studies were conducted to evaluate the best approaches for cross section and mesh generation to ensure accurate results from Rattlesnake. As part of the verification process, the eigenvalue results of the system at various fuel bullet positions were obtained using Rattlesnake and compared with the reference solutions. The acceptable differences show that the Rattlesnake model with appropriate cross section and mesh generation procedure is a sufficiently accurate approximation of the continuous energy (CE) MC model for micro-sized reactors like the PPR reactor. Next, the impact of the rotation of the control drums on the system criticality was evaluated using the verified model. It was shown that the high-fidelity simulation using the deterministic code Rattlesnake can produce sufficiently accurate results for the evaluation of the reactor's neutronics performance in different phases of the normal operation with acceptable computational cost.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using mixed methods to construct and analyze a participatory agent-based model of a complex Zimbabwean agro-pastoral system

Complex social-ecological systems can be difficult to study and manage. Simulation models can facilitate exploration of system behavior under novel conditions, and participatory modeling can involve stakeholders in developing appropriate management processes. Participatory modeling already typically involves qualitative structural validation of models with stakeholders, but with increased data and more sophisticated models, quantitative behavioral validation may be possible as well. In this study, we created a novel agent-basedmodel applied to a specific context: Zimbabwean non-governmental organization the Muonde Trust has been collecting data on their agro-pastoral system for the last 35 years and had concerns about land-use planning and the effectiveness of management interventions in the face of climate change. We collaboratively created an agent-based model of their system using their data archive, qualitatively calibrating it to the observed behavior of the real system without tuning any parameters to match specific quantitative outputs. We then behaviorally validated the model using quantitative community-based data and conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the relative impact of underlying parameter assumptions, Indigenous management interventions, and different rainfall variation scenarios. We found that our process resulted in a model which was successfully structurally validated and sufficiently realistic to be useful for Muonde researchers as a discussion tool. The model was inconsistently behaviorally validated, however, with some model variables matching field data better than others. We observed increased model system instability due to increasing variability in underlying drivers (rainfall), and also due to management interventions that broke feedbacks between the components of the system. Interventions that smoothed year-to-year variation rather than exaggerating it tended to improve sustainability. The Muonde trust has used the model to successfully advocate to local leaders for changes in land-use planning policy that will increase the sustainability of their system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗