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At least 901 records · Page 50

Machine Learning-Based Regression Models for Ironmaking Blast Furnace Automation

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based simulation has been the traditional way to model complex industrial systems and processes. One very large and complex industrial system that has benefited from CFD-based simulations is the steel blast furnace system. The problem with the CFD-based simulation approach is that it tends to be very slow for generating data. The CFD-only approach may not be fast enough for use in real-time decisionmaking. To address this issue, in this work, the authors propose the use of machine learning techniques to train and test models based on data generated via CFD simulation. Regression models based on neural networks are compared with tree-boosting models. In particular, several areas (tuyere, raceway, and shaft) of the blast furnace are modeled using these approaches. The results of the model training and testing are presented and discussed. The obtained R 2 metrics are, in general, very high. The results appear promising and may help to improve the efficiency of operator and process engineer decisionmaking when running a blast furnace.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Characterizing Al quasiparticle diffusion using a positionable laser (Final Technical Report)

This Career Award accomplished most of its goals, in demonstrating for the first time a low- threshold nuclear recoil detector based on the quantum evaporation of helium-4. Through this work, we trained several PhD students and evolved this niche R&D topic into a central pillar of the DOE-funded TESSERACT project, which now plans to take underground helium data in 2028.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Correlated Trajectory Uncertainty for Adaptive Sequential Decision Making

One of the great challenges with decision making tasks on real world systems is the fact that data is sparse and acquiring additional data is expensive. In these cases, it is often crucial to make a model of the environment to assist in making decisions. At the same time, limited data means that learned models are erroneous, making it just as important to equip the model with good predictive uncertainties. In the context of learning sequential decision making policies, these uncertainties can prove useful for informing which data to collect for the greatest improvement in policy performance \citep{mehta2021experimental, mehta2022exploration} or informing the policy about unsure regions of state and action space to avoid during test time \citep{yu2020mopo}. Additionally, assuming that realistic samples of the environment can be drawn, an adaptable policy can be trained that attempts to make optimal decisions for any given possible instance of the environment \citep{ghosh2022offline, chen2021offline}. In this work, we examine the so-called ``probabilistic neural network'' (PNN) model that is ubiquitous in model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) works. We argue that while PNN models may have good marginal uncertainties, they form a distribution of non-smooth transition functions. Not only are these samples unrealistic and may hamper adaptability, but we also assert that this leads to poor uncertainty estimates when predicting multiple step trajectory estimates. To address this issue, we propose a simple sampling method that can be implemented on top of pre-existing models.We evaluate our sampling technique on a number of environments, including a realistic nuclear fusion task, and find that, not only do smooth transition function samples produce more calibrated uncertainties, but they also lead to better downstream performance for an adaptive policy.

Offline Reinforcement Learning↗

Hybrid geological modeling: Combining machine learning and multiple-point statistics

Accurately modeling and constructing a geologically realistic subsurface model remains an outstanding problem as the morphology controls the flow behaviors. Particularly, one of the pattern-based methods, namely cross-correlation based simulation, has been proved to be an effective way to reconstruct a realistic model, at both small and large scales. However, conditioning to point data in the large-scale problems is still a crucial issue in these algorithms, since there is always a trade-off between the quality of the realizations and the degree of point data reproduction. Specifically, it is not practical to build a training image (TI) which includes all the possibilities and variabilities. Therefore, finding a pattern that can represent the point data and, at the same time, preserving the connectivities is difficult. This leads to producing highly-connected realizations with a significant mismatch or poor models with a reasonable degree of point data reproduction. To accurately reproduce the densely distributed hard data, pixel-based methods can also produce some unrealistic artifacts around the hard data. In this paper, to overcome this challenge, however, we use pattern-based methods as they often produce more disconnected geobodies when dealing with dense hard data, and proposed a hybrid algorithm using the pattern-based methods and convolutional neural network (CNN). The trained CNN model is utilized to improve the quality of conditioning to point data for the original realizations generated by the pattern-based algorithm. As such, the mismatch locations are identified, and the same regions are used in the training of CNN to mimic the procedure through which a missing region can be filled. To evaluate the performance of the proposed hybrid algorithm, it is tested on cases with different dimensions and different numbers of facies. Then, the newly improved realizations are compared with the initial realizations generated by the pattern-based algorithm. The comparison is also conducted by the flow simulation test. And it indicates that the proposed hybrid algorithm can better reproduce the point data, while the connectivities are better preserved.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hierarchical-embedding autoencoder with a predictor as efficient architecture for learning time-evolution in multi-scale turbulent flows

We introduce a scale-aware, data-driven deep learning modeling framework for accurately predicting the time evolution of multi-scale turbulent plasma and liquid flows. The approach is motivated by the idea of scale separation. Structures of vastly different length scales emerge in these systems, and interactions between these structures occur only locally. To exploit this structure, the flow state is transformed by a hierarchical, fully convolutional autoencoder, not into a single embedding layer as in conventional convolutional surrogate models, but into a series of embedding layers. A stepwise training strategy ensures that fine-scale features are encoded on a high-resolution grid, while larger structures are represented on progressively coarser layers. The time evolution predictor advances all embedding layers in sync, capturing local interactions between features at the same scale as well as between all scales. This approach enables efficient modeling of multi-scale systems since negligible interactions between distant, small-scale structures do not need to be directly modeled. Our hierarchical-embedding autoencoder with a predictor framework is evaluated on canonical examples of multi-scale turbulence: two-dimensional Kolmogorov flow and Hasegawa–Wakatani plasma turbulence. In both cases, the proposed framework significantly improves predictive accuracy relative to conventional convolutional network architectures. A significant improvement in prediction accuracy was observed for crucial statistical characteristics of the Hasegawa–Wakatani plasma as well as for individual trajectories of the Kolmogorov flow turbulence. Importantly, the model's rollout for the Hasegawa–Wakatani problem demonstrates a four-order-of-magnitude speedup compared to traditional numerical solvers.

Khrabry, Alexander I. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United↗

Technical note: Using long short-term memory models to fill data gaps in hydrological monitoring networks

Abstract. Quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics in subsurface hydrological flows over a long time window usually employs a network of monitoring wells. However, such observations are often spatially sparse with potential temporal gaps due to poor quality or instrument failure. In this study, we explore the ability of recurrent neural networks to fill gaps in a spatially distributed time-series dataset. We use a well network that monitors the dynamic and heterogeneous hydrologic exchanges between the Columbia River and its adjacent groundwater aquifer at the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford site. This 10-year-long dataset contains hourly temperature, specific conductance, and groundwater table elevation measurements from 42 wells with gaps of various lengths. We employ a long short-term memory (LSTM) model to capture the temporal variations in the observed system behaviors needed for gap filling. The performance of the LSTM-based gap-filling method was evaluated against a traditional autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method in terms of error statistics and accuracy in capturing the temporal patterns of river corridor wells with various dynamics signatures. Our study demonstrates that the ARIMA models yield better average error statistics, although they tend to have larger errors during time windows with abrupt changes or high-frequency (daily and subdaily) variations. The LSTM-based models excel in capturing both high-frequency and low-frequency (monthly and seasonal) dynamics. However, the inclusion of high-frequency fluctuations may also lead to overly dynamic predictions in time windows that lack such fluctuations. The LSTM can take advantage of the spatial information from neighboring wells to improve the gap-filling accuracy, especially for long gaps in system states that vary at subdaily scales. While LSTM models require substantial training data and have limited extrapolation power beyond the conditions represented in the training data, they afford great flexibility to account for the spatial correlations, temporal correlations, and nonlinearity in data without a priori assumptions. Thus, LSTMs provide effective alternatives to fill in data gaps in spatially distributed time-series observations characterized by multiple dominant frequencies of variability, which are essential for advancing our understanding of dynamic complex systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Time Series Classification for Locating Forced Oscillation Sources

Here, this article presents a machine learning based time-series classification method for using synchrophasor measurements to locate the source of forced oscillation (FO) for fast disturbance removal. First, multivariate time series (MTS) matrices are constructed by the most informative measurements selected by sequential feature selection from each power plant. Then, the Mahalanobis matrix is trained such that the Mahalanobis distance between the MTSs from the same class (i.e., with the same FO source location) are minimized and from different classes (i.e., with different FO source locations) are maximized. This allows MTSs to be classified by classifiers with class membership corresponding to the location of each FO source. To meet the runtime requirements of online matching, class templates are constructed to reduce data size and improve matching efficiency. To account for uncertainty in identifying the exact beginning of an FO event, dynamic time warping is used to align the out-of-sync MTSs. IEEE 39bus and WECC 179bus systems are used for algorithm development and validation. Simulation results demonstrate that the algorithm meets online operation runtime requirement with high accuracy using misaligned data sets.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Finding Strong Gravitational Lenses in the DESI DECam Legacy Survey

We perform a semi-automated search for strong gravitational lensing systems in the 9000 deg 2 Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey (DECaLS), part of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Legacy Imaging Surveys. The combination of the depth and breadth of these surveys are unparalleled at this time, making them particularly suitable for discovering new strong gravitational lensing systems. We adopt the deep residual neural network architecture developed by Lanusse et al. for the purpose of finding strong lenses in photometric surveys. We compile a training sample that consists of known lensing systems in the Legacy Surveys and the Dark Energy Survey as well as non-lenses in the footprint of DECaLS. In this paper we show the results of applying our trained neural network to the cutout images centered on galaxies typed as ellipticals in DECaLS. The images that receive the highest scores (probabilities) are visually inspected and ranked. Here we present 335 candidate strong lensing systems, identified for the first time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Predicting Search Task Difficulty through a Discrete‐Time Action Log Representation on Spectrum Kernel

ABSTRACT Predicting perceived difficulty on a web search task is an open problem in the interactive information retrieval field. A common approach to tackle it, is through features obtained from full search sessions, which are then used to train classification models. In this poster we attempt to predict perceived task difficulty at different stages of the search process. To do so, we use the spectrum kernel for support vector machine (SVM) classification. Our preliminary results suggest that by using behavioral data from the first query segment, it is possible to provide timely classifications of whether a search task is perceived as hard or easy.

Gacitúa, Daniel↗

COVID-19 dynamics across the US: A deep learning study of human mobility and social behavior

This paper presents a deep learning framework for epidemiology system identification from noisy and sparse observations with quantified uncertainty. The proposed approach employs an ensemble of deep neural networks to infer the time-dependent reproduction number of an infectious disease by formulating a tensor-based multi-step loss function that allows us to efficiently calibrate the model on multiple observed trajectories. The method is applied to a mobility and social behavior-based SEIR model of COVID-19 spread. The model is trained on Google and Unacast mobility data spanning a period of 66 days, and is able to yield accurate future forecasts of COVID-19 spread in 203 US counties within a time-window of 15 days. Interestingly, a sensitivity analysis that assesses the importance of different mobility and social behavior parameters reveals that attendance of close places, including workplaces, residential, and retail and recreational locations, has the largest impact on the effective reproduction number. Furthermore, the model enables us to rapidly probe and quantify the effects of government interventions, such as lock-down and re-opening strategies. Taken together, the proposed framework provides a robust workflow for data-driven epidemiology model discovery under uncertainty and produces probabilistic forecasts for the evolution of a pandemic that can judiciously provide information for policy and decision making. All codes and data accompanying this manuscript are available at https://github.com/PredictiveIntelligenceLab/DeepCOVID19.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

In-process monitoring and prediction of droplet quality in droplet-on-demand liquid metal jetting additive manufacturing using machine learning

Abstract In droplet-on-demand liquid metal jetting (DoD-LMJ) additive manufacturing, complex physical interactions govern the droplet characteristics, such as size, velocity, and shape. These droplet characteristics, in turn, determine the functional quality of the printed parts. Hence, to ensure repeatable and reliable part quality it is necessary to monitor and control the droplet characteristics. Existing approaches for in-situ monitoring of droplet behavior in DoD-LMJ rely on high-speed imaging sensors. The resulting high volume of droplet images acquired is computationally demanding to analyze and hinders real-time control of the process. To overcome this challenge, the objective of this work is to use time series data acquired from an in-process millimeter-wave sensor for predicting the size, velocity, and shape characteristics of droplets in DoD-LMJ process. As opposed to high-speed imaging, this sensor produces data-efficient time series signatures that allows rapid, real-time process monitoring. We devise machine learning models that use the millimeter-wave sensor data to predict the droplet characteristics. Specifically, we developed multilayer perceptron-based non-linear autoregressive models to predict the size and velocity of droplets. Likewise, a supervised machine learning model was trained to classify the droplet shape using the frequency spectrum information contained in the millimeter-wave sensor signatures. High-speed imaging data served as ground truth for model training and validation. These models captured the droplet characteristics with a statistical fidelity exceeding 90%, and vastly outperformed conventional statistical modeling approaches. Thus, this work achieves a practically viable sensing approach for real-time quality monitoring of the DoD-LMJ process, in lieu of the existing data-intensive image-based techniques.

Gaikwad, Aniruddha (ORCID:0000000285642621)↗

Semantic segmentation with a sparse convolutional neural network for event reconstruction in MicroBooNE

We present the performance of a semantic segmentation network, SparseSSNet, that provides pixel-level classification of MicroBooNE data. The MicroBooNE experiment employs a liquid argon time projection chamber for the study of neutrino properties and interactions. SparseSSNet is a submanifold sparse convolutional neural network, which provides the initial machine learning based algorithm utilized in one of MicroBooNE's ν e -appearance oscillation analyses. The network is trained to categorize pixels into five classes, which are re-classified into two classes more relevant to the current analysis. The output of SparseSSNet is a key input in further analysis steps. This technique, used for the first time in liquid argon time projection chambers data and is an improvement compared to a previously used convolutional neural network, both in accuracy and computing resource utilization. Here, the accuracy achieved on the test sample is ≥ 99%. For full neutrino interaction simulations, the time for processing one image is ≈ 0.5 sec, the memory usage is at 1 GB level, which allows utilization of most typical CPU worker machine.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

FIND: A Synthetic weather generator to control drought Frequency, Intensity, and Duration

Water systems worldwide are experiencing climate change-induced shifts in drought properties like frequency, intensity, and duration, affecting water security and reliability. To develop and test effective drought preparedness plans, researchers often use synthetic weather generators to create hydrological scenarios that explore drought variability beyond historical records. Existing weather generators typically allow users to adjust streamflow statistics like percentiles or temporal correlation but do not directly control drought properties of frequency, intensity, and duration. To fill this gap, we propose FIND (Frequency, INtensity, and Duration) synthetic weather generator. FIND incorporates a standardized drought index to directly and in dependently control drought frequency, intensity, and duration in generated streamflow time series while preserving observed hydrological variability. Use cases for FIND include i) water systems analysis applications that seek to train and test drought strategies under historical and plausible future drought conditions, and ii) bottom-up vulnerability studies relating system vulnerability outcomes to specific changes in drought properties of frequency, intensity, and duration. Here, we demonstrate FIND’s versatility through three experiments: replicating historically observed drought properties, generating streamflow scenarios for multiple sites preserving correlation between their drought conditions, and generating a set of scenarios with direct and independent changes in drought properties. FIND source code is openly available for applications beyond the scope of this paper.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Snow Distribution Patterns Revisited: A Physics-Based and Machine Learning Hybrid Approach to Snow Distribution Mapping in the Sub-Arctic

Snowpack distribution in Arctic and alpine landscapes often occurs in repeating, year-to-year patterns due to local topographic, weather, and vegetation characteristics. Previous studies have suggested that with years of observational data, these snow distribution patterns can be statistically integrated into a snow process modeling workflow. Recent advances in snow hydrology and machine learning (ML) have increased our ability to predict snowpack distribution using in-situ observations, remote sensing data sets, and simple landscape characteristics that can be easily obtained for most environments. Here, we propose a hybrid approach to couple a ML snow distribution pattern (MLSDP) map with a physics-based, snow process model. We trained a random forest ML algorithm on tens of thousands of snow survey observations from a subarctic study area on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, collected during peak snow water equivalent (SWE). We validated hybrid model outputs using in-situ snow depth and SWE observations, as well as a light detection and ranging data set and a distributed temperature profiling sensor data set. When the hybrid results were compared with the physics-based method, the hybrid method more accurately depicted the spatial patterns of the snowpack, areas of drifting snow, and years when no in-situ observations were used in the random forest ML training data set. The hybrid method also showed improvements in root mean squared error at 61% of locations where time-series estimations of snow depth were observed. These results can be applied to any physics-based model to improve the snow distribution patterning to reflect observed conditions in high latitude and high elevation cold region environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Empowering Machine Learning Forecasting of Labquake Using Event‐Based Features and Clustering Characteristics

Abstract Following recent advances of machine learning (ML), we present a novel approach to extract spatiotemporal seismo‐mechanical features from Acoustic Emission (AE) catalogs to empower ML‐based forecasting. The AE data were recorded during laboratory stick‐slip experiments on granite samples cut by rough faults. Based on the features computed for a past time window, a random forest (RF) classifier is used to forecast the occurrence of a large magnitude event ( M AE > 3.5) in the next time window. Event‐based features allow us to associate informative time‐space characteristics to each feature and nearest‐neighbor clustering analysis enables us to separate background and clustered seismicity and train individual models. The results show that the separation of AEs enhances the forecasting accuracy from 73.2% for the entire catalog up to 82.1% and 89.0% if background and clustered events are used separately. The presented new approach may be upscaled for applications to forecast tectonic earthquakes.

Karimpouli, Sadegh↗

Particle-based fast jet simulation at the LHC with variational autoencoders

Abstract We study how to use deep variational autoencoders (VAEs) for a fast simulation of jets of particles at the Large Hadron Collider. We represent jets as a list of constituents, characterized by their momenta. Starting from a simulation of the jet before detector effects, we train a deep VAE to return the corresponding list of constituents after detection. Doing so, we bypass both the time-consuming detector simulation and the collision reconstruction steps of a traditional processing chain, speeding up significantly the events generation workflow. Through model optimization and hyperparameter tuning, we achieve state-of-the-art precision on the jet four-momentum, while providing an accurate description of the constituents momenta, and an inference time comparable to that of a rule-based fast simulation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Point Adversarial Self-Mining: A Simple Method for Facial Expression Recognition

In this article, we propose a simple yet effective approach, called point adversarial self mining (PASM), to improve the recognition accuracy in facial expression recognition (FER). Unlike previous works focusing on designing specific architectures or loss functions to solve this problem, PASM boosts the network capability by simulating human learning processes: providing updated learning materials and guidance from more capable teachers. Specifically, to generate new learning materials, PASM leverages a point adversarial attack method and a trained teacher network to locate the most informative position related to the target task, generating harder learning samples to refine the network. The searched position is highly adaptive since it considers both the statistical information of each sample and the teacher network capability. Other than being provided new learning materials, the student network also receives guidance from the teacher network. After the student network finishes training, the student network changes its role and acts as a teacher, generating new learning materials and providing stronger guidance to train a better student network. Here, the adaptive learning materials generation and teacher/student update can be conducted more than one time, improving the network capability iteratively. Extensive experimental results validate the efficacy of our method over the existing state of the arts for FER.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Surrogate Model for Distribution Networks Influenced by Weather

Here, we propose a method for generating reduced representations of time series and for constructing low dimensional surrogate models for time dependent calculations of power and voltage in distribution networks. We employ Fourier polynomials. The surrogate model strategy is aimed at reducing the computational cost of time dependent simulations, albeit, at the expense of fidelity. The reduced representation is achieved by identifying a small and most consequential subset of degrees of freedom. In power and voltage distribution networks dynamics that are heavily influenced by strong cyclic weather events, e.g., the hourly, diurnal and seasonal cycles, the weather/climate time series spectrum exposes these most energetic components. Once the degrees of freedom are identified their amplitudes are optimized using training data. The key challenge in using spectral methods in power network surrogates is addressing the computation of quotients. For this we propose a numerically-stable deconvolution strategy.

Weather events↗