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DOE OSTI2013

Safeguards and security modeling for electrochemical plants

Safeguards and security design for reprocessing plants can lead to excessive costs if not incorporated early in the design process. The design for electrochemical plants is somewhat uncertain since these plants have not been built at a commercial scale in the past. The Separation and Safeguards Performance Model (SSPM), developed at Sandia National Laboratories, has been used for safeguards design and evaluation for multiple reprocessing plant types. The SSPM includes the following capabilities: -) spent fuel source term library, -) mass tracking of elements 1-99 and bulk solid/liquids, -) tracking of heat load and activity, -) customisable measurement points, -) automated calculation of ID and error propagation, -) alarm conditions and statistical tests, and -) user-defined diversion scenarios. Materials accountancy and process monitoring data can provide more timely detection of material loss specifically to protect against the insider threat. While the SSPM is capable of determining detection probabilities and examining detection times for material loss scenarios, it does not model the operations or spatial effects for a plant design. The STAGE software was chosen to model the physical protection system. STAGE provides a framework to create end-to-end scalable force-on-force combat simulations. It allows for a complete 3D model of a facility to be designed along with the design of physical protection elements. This software, then, can be used to model operations and response for various material loss scenarios. The future integration of the SSPM model data with the STAGE software will provide a more complete analysis of diversion scenarios to assist plant designers.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1972

A double-loop tracking system.

A nonlinear analysis which can be used to assess certain statistical characteristics of double-loop tracking systems is presented. It takes into account the mutual coupling effects of the loops in the system. Two approaches are taken to obtain steady-state probability density functions (pdf's) of the system phase errors. From these pdf's, important system performance statistics, e.g., the phase-error variances, can be calculated, thus illustrating the application and usefulness of the analysis. The analysis is applied to a satellite transponder as an example.

Yuen, J. H.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rare events and Griffiths phases in topological quantum error correction

The performance of quantum error correcting (QEC) codes is often studied under the assumption of spatiotemporally uniform error rates. On the other hand, experimental implementations almost always produce heterogeneous error rates, in either space or time, as a result of effects such as imperfect fabrication and/or cosmic rays. It is therefore important to understand if and how their presence can affect the performance of QEC in qualitative ways. Here, in this work, we study the effects of nonuniform error rates in the representative examples of the 1D repetition code and the 2D toric code, focusing on when they have extended spatiotemporal correlations; these may arise, for instance, from rare events (such as cosmic rays) that temporarily elevate error rates over the entire code patch. These effects can be described in the corresponding statistical mechanics models for decoding, where long-range correlations in the error rates lead to extended rare regions of weaker coupling. For the 1D repetition code where the rare regions are linear, we find two distinct decodable phases: a conventional ordered phase in which logical failure rates decay exponentially with the code distance, and a rare-region dominated Griffiths phase in which failure rates are parametrically larger and decay as a stretched exponential. In particular, the latter phase is present when the error rates in the rare regions are above the bulk threshold. For the 2D toric code where the rare regions are planar, we find no decodable Griffiths phase: rare events which boost error rates above the bulk threshold lead to an asymptotic loss of threshold and failure to decode. Unpacking the failure mechanism implies that techniques for suppressing extended sequences of repeated rare events (which, without intervention, will be statistically present with high probability) will be crucial for QEC with the toric code.

classical statistical mechanics↗

NASA NTRS1984

LANDSAT Scene-to-scene Registration Accuracy Assessment

Initial results obtained from the registration of LANDSAT-4 data to LANDSAT-2 MSS data are documented and compared with results obtained from a LANDSAT-2 MSS-to-LANDSAT-2 scene-to-scene registration (using the same LANDSAT-2 MSS data as the base data set in both procedures). RMS errors calculated on the control points used in the establishment of scene-to-scene mapping equations are compared to error computed from independently chosen verification points. Models developed to estimate actual scene-to-scene registration accuracy based on the use of electrostatic plots are also presented. Analysis of results indicates a statistically significant difference in the RMS errors for the element contribution. Scan line errors were not significantly different. It appears that a modification to the LANDSAT-4 MSS scan mirror coefficients is required to correct the situation.

Anderson, J. E.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Micrometer-resolved film dosimetry using a microscope in microbeam radiation therapy

Purpose: Microbeam radiation therapy (MRT) is a still preclinical tumor therapy approach that uses arrays of a few tens of micrometer wide parallel beams separated by a few 100 μm. The production, measurement, and planning of such radiation fields are a challenge up to now. Here, the authors investigate the feasibility of radiochromic film dosimetry in combination with a microscopic readout as a tool to validate peak and valley doses in MRT, which is an important requirement for a future clinical application of the therapy. Methods: Gafchromic{sup ®} HD-810 and HD-V2 films are exposed to MRT fields at the biomedical beamline ID17 of the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility (ESRF) and are afterward scanned with a microscope. The measured dose is compared with Monte Carlo calculations. Image analysis tools and film handling protocols are developed that allow accurate and reproducible dosimetry. The performance of HD-810 and HD-V2 films is compared and a detailed analysis of the resolution, noise, and energy dependence is carried out. Measurement uncertainties are identified and analyzed. Results: The dose was measured with a resolution of 5 × 1000 μm{sup 2} and an accuracy of 5% in the peak and between 10% and 15% in the valley region. As main causes for dosimetry uncertainties, statistical noise, film inhomogeneities, and calibration errors were identified. Calibration errors strongly increase at low doses and exceeded 3% for doses below 50 and 70 Gy for HD-V2 and HD-810 films, respectively. While the grain size of both film types is approximately 2 μm, the statistical noise in HD-V2 is much higher than in HD-810 films. However, HD-810 films show a higher energy dependence at low photon energies. Conclusions: Both film types are appropriate for dosimetry in MRT and the microscope is superior to the microdensitometer used before at the ESRF with respect to resolution and reproducibility. However, a very careful analysis of the image data is required. Dosimetry at low photon energies should be performed with great caution due to the energy sensitivity of the films. In this respect, HD-V2 films showed to have an advantage over HD-810 films. However, HD-810 films have a lower statistical noise level. When a higher resolution is required, e.g., for the dosimetry of pencil beam irradiations, noise may render HD-V2 films inapplicable.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS1983

AN-A46. LANDSAT scene-to-scene registration assessment

Initial results obtained from the registration of LANDSAT-4 MSS data to LANDSAT-2 MSS data are documented and compared with results obtained from a LANDSAT-2 MSS-to-LANDSAT-2 MSS scene-to-scene registration (using the same LANDSAT-2 MSS data as the base data set in both procedures). RMS errors calculated on the control points used in the establishment of scene-to-scene mapping equations are compared to errors computed from independently chosen verification points. Models developed to estimate actual scene-to-scene registration accuracy based on the use of electrostatic plots are also presented. Analysis or results obtained indicates a statistically significant difference in the RMS errors for the element contribution. Scan line errors were not significantly different. It appears that a modification to the LANDSAT-4 MSS scan mirror coefficients is required to correct the situation.

Anderson, J. E.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis

Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-J-248: Comparative Study of Two Image Registration for Image-Guided Radiation Therapy in Esophageal Cancer

Purpose: Image-guided radiation therapy (IGRT) is one of the major treatment of esophageal cancer. Gray value registration and bone registration are two kinds of image registration, the purpose of this work is to compare which one is more suitable for esophageal cancer patients. Methods: Twenty three esophageal patients were treated by Elekta Synergy, CBCT images were acquired and automatically registered to planning kilovoltage CT scans according to gray value or bone registration. The setup errors were measured in the X, Y and Z axis, respectively. Two kinds of setup errors were analysed by matching T test statistical method. Results: Four hundred and five groups of CBCT images were available and the systematic and random setup errors (cm) in X, Y, Z directions were 0.35, 0.63, 0.29 and 0.31, 0.53, 0.21 with gray value registration, while 0.37, 0.64, 0.26 and 0.32, 0.55, 0.20 with bone registration, respectively. Compared with bone registration and gray value registration, the setup errors in X and Z axis have significant differences. In Y axis, both measurement comparison results of T value is 0.256 (P value > 0.05); In X axis, the T value is 5.287(P value < 0.05); In Z axis, the T value is −5.138 (P value < 0.05). Conclusion: Gray value registration is recommended in image-guided radiotherapy for esophageal cancer and the other thoracic tumors. Manual registration could be applied when it is necessary. Bone registration is more suitable for the head tumor and pelvic tumor department where composed of redundant interconnected and immobile bone tissue.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Comparing multiple statistical methods for inverse prediction in nuclear forensics applications

Forensic science seeks to predict source characteristics using measured observables. Statistically, this objective can be thought of as an inverse problem where interest is in the unknown source characteristics or factors ( X ) of some underlying causal model producing the observables or responses (Y = g ( X ) + error ). Here, this paper reviews several statistical methods for use in inverse problems and demonstrates that comparing results from multiple methods can be used to assess predictive capability. Motivation for assessing inverse predictions comes from the desired application to historical and future experiments involving nuclear material production for forensics research in which inverse predictions, along with an assessment of predictive capability, are desired.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Error field predictability and consequences for ITER

Abstract ITER coil tolerances are re-evaluated using the modern understanding of coupling to least-stable plasma modes and an updated center-line-traced model of ITER’s coil windings. This reassessment finds the tolerances to be conservative through a statistical, linear study of n = 1 error fields (EFs) due to tilted, shifted misplacements and nominal windings of central solenoid and poloidal field coils within tolerance. We also show that a model-based correction scheme remains effective even when metrology quality is sub-optimal, and compare this to projected empirical correction schemes. We begin with an analysis of the necessity of error field correction (EFC) for daily operation in ITER using scalign laws for the EF penetration threshold. We then consider the predictability of EF dominant mode overlap across early planned ITER scenarios and, as measuring EFs in high power scenarios can pose risks to the device, the potential for extrapolation to the ITER Baseline Scenario (IBS). We find that carefully designing a scenario matching currents proportionally to those of the IBS is far more important than plasma shape or profiles in accurately measuring an optimal correction current set.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

How Representative Are Uncrewed Aircraft System Measurements of the Convective Boundary Layer?

Abstract Uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) demonstrate significant potential for filling data gaps in the atmospheric boundary layer. However, the extent to which UAS observations—typically vertical profiles taken over 15 min—are representative of the boundary layer as a whole remains poorly characterized. Using large eddy simulations (LES) of the daytime convective boundary layer (CBL), we quantify random errors in UAS measurements that occur due to insufficient statistical convergence of the time average to the true ensemble mean. Random errors in first‐order moments increase as the CBL becomes increasingly unstable, and are largest near the surface for most quantities. Errors are on the order of 2–6 m for wind speed, 15–60 for wind direction, 0.2–3 K for potential temperature, and 0.1–1 g for specific humidity, with errors in turbulent fluxes on the order of 50%–100%. Sampling strategies that mitigate random errors are discussed in light of our results.

Greene, Brian R. [Now at Verisk Extreme Event Solu↗

NASA NTRS2008

Five-Year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP)Observations: Beam Maps and Window Functions

Cosmology and other scientific results from the WMAP mission require an accurate knowledge of the beam patterns in flight. While the degree of beam knowledge for the WMAP one-year and three-year results was unprecedented for a CMB experiment, we have significantly improved the beam determination as part of the five-year data release. Physical optics fits are done on both the A and the B sides for the first time. The cutoff scale of the fitted distortions on the primary mirror is reduced by a factor of approximately 2 from previous analyses. These changes enable an improvement in the hybridization of Jupiter data with beam models, which is optimized with respect to error in the main beam solid angle. An increase in main-beam solid angle of approximately 1% is found for the V2 and W1-W4 differencing assemblies. Although the five-year results are statistically consistent with previous ones, the errors in the five-year beam transfer functions are reduced by a factor of approximately 2 as compared to the three-year analysis. We present radiometry of the planet Jupiter as a test of the beam consistency and as a calibration standard; for an individual differencing assembly. errors in the measured disk temperature are approximately 0.5%.

Hill, R.S.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Accounting for erroneous model structures in biokinetic process models

In engineering practice, model-based design requires not only a good process-based model, but also a good description of stochastic disturbances and measurement errors to learn credible parameter values from observations. However, typical methods use Gaussian error models, which often cannot describe the complex temporal patterns of residuals. Consequently, this results in overconfidence in the identified parameters and, in turn, optimistic reactor designs. Here, we assess the strengths and weaknesses of a method to statistically describe these patterns with autocorrelated error models. This method produces increased widths of the credible prediction intervals following the inclusion of the bias term, in turn leading to more conservative design choices. However, we also show that the augmented error model is not a universal tool, as its application cannot guarantee the desired reliability of the resulting wastewater reactor design.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2019

SAD phasing of XFEL data depends critically on the error model

A nonlinear least-squares method for refining a parametric expression describing the estimated errors of reflection intensities in serial crystallographic (SX) data is presented. This approach, which is similar to that used in the rotation method of crystallographic data collection at synchrotrons, propagates error estimates from photon-counting statistics to the merged data. Here, it is demonstrated that the application of this approach to SX data provides better SAD phasing ability, enabling the autobuilding of a protein structure that had previously failed to be built. Estimating the error in the merged reflection intensities requires the understanding and propagation of all of the sources of error arising from the measurements. One type of error, which is well understood, is the counting error introduced when the detector counts X-ray photons. Thus, if other types of random errors (such as readout noise) as well as uncertainties in systematic corrections (such as from X-ray attenuation) are completely understood, they can be propagated along with the counting error, as appropriate. In practice, most software packages propagate as much error as they know how to model and then include error-adjustment terms that scale the error estimates until they explain the variance among the measurements. If this is performed carefully, then during SAD phasing likelihood-based approaches can make optimal use of these error estimates, increasing the chance of a successful structure solution. In serial crystallography, SAD phasing has remained challenging, with the few examples of de novo protein structure solution each requiring many thousands of diffraction patterns. Here, the effects of different methods of treating the error estimates are estimated and it is shown that using a parametric approach that includes terms proportional to the known experimental uncertainty, the reflection intensity and the squared reflection intensity to improve the error estimates can allow SAD phasing even from weak zinc anomalous signal.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Guide to Using the WIND Toolkit Validation Code

In response to the U.S. Department of Energy's goal of using 20% wind energy by 2030, the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit was created to provide information on wind speed, wind direction, temperature, surface air pressure, and air density on more than 126,000 locations across the United States from 2007 to 2013. The numerical weather prediction model output, gridded at 2-km and at a 5-minute resolution, was further converted to detail the wind power production time series of existing and potential wind facility sites. For users of the dataset it is important that the information presented in the WIND Toolkit is accurate and that errors are known, as then corrective steps can be taken. Therefore, we provide validation code written in R that will be made public to provide users with tools to validate data of their own locations. Validation is based on statistical analyses of wind speed, using error metrics such as bias, root-mean-square error, centered root-mean-square error, mean absolute error, and percent error. Plots of diurnal cycles, annual cycles, wind roses, histograms of wind speed, and quantile-quantile plots are created to visualize how well observational data compares to model data. Ideally, validation will confirm beneficial locations to utilize wind energy and encourage regional wind integration studies using the WIND Toolkit.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Statistical Characterization of Radiation-Induced Pulse Waveforms and Flip-Flop Soft Errors in 14nm Tri-Gate CMOS Using a Back-Sampling Chain (BSC) Technique

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Kumar, Saurabh↗

DOE OSTI2017

Validation of sea ice models using an uncertainty-based distance metric for multiple model variables: NEW METRIC FOR SEA ICE MODEL VALIDATION

Here, we implement a variance-based distance metric (D n ) to objectively assess skill of sea ice models when multiple output variables or uncertainties in both model predictions and observations need to be considered. The metric compares observations and model data pairs on common spatial and temporal grids improving upon highly aggregated metrics (e.g., total sea ice extent or volume) by capturing the spatial character of model skill. The D n metric is a gamma-distributed statistic that is more general than the χ 2 statistic commonly used to assess model fit, which requires the assumption that the model is unbiased and can only incorporate observational error in the analysis. The D n statistic does not assume that the model is unbiased, and allows the incorporation of multiple observational data sets for the same variable and simultaneously for different variables, along with different types of variances that can characterize uncertainties in both observations and the model. This approach represents a step to establish a systematic framework for probabilistic validation of sea ice models. The methodology is also useful for model tuning by using the D n metric as a cost function and incorporating model parametric uncertainty as part of a scheme to optimize model functionality. We apply this approach to evaluate different configurations of the standalone Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) encompassing the parametric uncertainty in the model, and to find new sets of model configurations that produce better agreement than previous configurations between model and observational estimates of sea ice concentration and thickness.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗