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NASA NTRS2015

Predicting Space Weather Effects on Close Approach Events

The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team sends ephemeris data to the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) for conjunction assessment screening against the JSpOC high accuracy catalog and then assesses risk posed to protected assets from predicted close approaches. Since most spacecraft supported by the CARA team are located in LEO orbits, atmospheric drag is the primary source of state estimate uncertainty. Drag magnitude and uncertainty is directly governed by atmospheric density and thus space weather. At present the actual effect of space weather on atmospheric density cannot be accurately predicted because most atmospheric density models are empirical in nature, which do not perform well in prediction. The Jacchia-Bowman-HASDM 2009 (JBH09) atmospheric density model used at the JSpOC employs a solar storm active compensation feature that predicts storm sizes and arrival times and thus the resulting neutral density alterations. With this feature, estimation errors can occur in either direction (i.e., over- or under-estimation of density and thus drag). Although the exact effect of a solar storm on atmospheric drag cannot be determined, one can explore the effects of JBH09 model error on conjuncting objects' trajectories to determine if a conjunction is likely to become riskier, less risky, or pass unaffected. The CARA team has constructed a Space Weather Trade-Space tool that systematically alters the drag situation for the conjuncting objects and recalculates the probability of collision for each case to determine the range of possible effects on the collision risk. In addition to a review of the theory and the particulars of the tool, the different types of observed output will be explained, along with statistics of their frequency.

Space Weather↗

NASA NTRS2020

Representation of Tropical Storms by the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2

This study examines the veracity of the tropical cyclone (TC) statistics estimated from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) global atmospheric reanalysis, focusing on the climatological-mean genesis regions, tracks and their lifetime maximum intensity, as well as the interannual and intraseasonal variations in TC activity. The results are validated against the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) data for 1980-2016. MERRA-2 represents the spatial distribution of the TC genesis location and the tracks realistically well over all main development regions (MDRs), but with notable discrepancies including too weak TC activity over the Arabian Sea and the South China Sea and too strong activity over the North Indian Ocean. Over the western North Pacific and the North Atlantic, MERRA-2 underestimates recurving TCs steered by background westerlies in the mid-latitudes and thereby exaggerates northwestward moving TCs, resulting in an overestimate of the landfall probability in East Asia and North America. Excessive development of TCs over the Bay of Bengal also tends to exaggerate the landfall probability in India. In spite of the discrepancies in the annual TC number, the seasonal variation of TC genesis is realistic in MERRA-2. MERRA-2 also captures the TC intensity relationship between the minimum pressure and the maximum surface wind speed at the mature stage, although the maximum intensity is weaker than in the observations. While MERRA-2 tends to reproduce the interannual variations of the observed TC number and the power dissipation index (PDI), the level of accuracy depends on the region. MERRA-2 describes the changes in the TC genesis region and tracks realistically according to the different phases of El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), although it is less realistic over the North Indian Ocean.

International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewa↗

NASA NTRS2011

Measurement of CPAS Main Parachute Rate of Descent

The Crew Exploration Vehicle Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) is being designed to land the Orion Crew Module (CM) at a safe rate of descent at splashdown. Flight test performance must be measured to a high degree of accuracy to ensure this requirement is met with the most efficient design possible. Although the design includes three CPAS Main parachutes, the requirement is that the system must not exceed 33 ft/s under two Main parachutes, should one of the Main parachutes fail. Therefore, several tests were conducted with clusters of two Mains. All of the steady-state rate of descent data are normalized to standard sea level conditions and checked against the limit. As the Orion design gains weight, the system is approaching this limit to within measurement precision. Parachute "breathing," cluster interactions, and atmospheric anomalies can cause the rate of descent to vary widely and lead to challenges in characterizing parachute terminal performance. An early test had contradictory rate of descent results from optical trajectory and Differential Global Positioning Systems (DGPS). A thorough analysis of the data sources and error propagation was conducted to determine the uncertainty in the trajectory. It was discovered that the Time Space Position Information (TSPI) from the optical tracking provided accurate position data. However, the velocity from TPSI must be computed via numerical differentiation, which is prone to large error. DGPS obtains position through pseudo-range calculations from multiple satellites and velocity through Doppler shift of the carrier frequency. Because the velocity from DGPS is a direct measurement, it is more accurate than TSPI velocity. To remedy the situation, a commercial off-the-shelf product that combines GPS and an Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) was purchased to significantly improve rate of descent measurements. This had the added benefit of solving GPS dropouts during aircraft extraction. Statistical probability distributions for CPAS Main parachute rate of descent and drag coefficient were computed and plotted. Using test data, a terminal rate of descent at splashdown can be estimated as a function of canopy loading.

Ray, Eric S.↗

NASA NTRS2022

SNPP and N20 VIIRS Thermal Emissive Bands Calibration Comparison Using the GEO-LEO Double Difference Method

The VIIRS instruments onboard the SNPP and NOAA-20 satellites have identical spatial resolutions and the same spectral bands. Similar prelaunch tests and identical on-orbit calibration algorithms established the foundation for their consistent Earth measurements. Calibration assessment and consistency comparisons are useful to maintain their performance and measurement accuracy. Simultaneous nadir overpasses (SNO) between two satellites are commonly used for a direct calibration comparison between sensors. However, there are no SNO between SNPP and NOAA20. Hence, a reference sensor or Earth measurements are normally used to bridge the comparison. As a reference, we focus on the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) onboard the GOES-R series spacecraft and its application to the SNPP and NOAA-20 VIIRS comparison. GOES16 and GOES17are the first two satellites of the GOES-R series and were launched on November 19, 2016, and March 12, 2018, respectively. Their operational positions are on the equator with longitudes of 75.2° West over land and 137.2° West over ocean, respectively. The ABI is the primary imaging instrument of these spacecrafts for the Earth’s weather, oceans, and environment, with observations (every 10 minutes) that provide vast data for GEO-Low Earth orbit (LEO)and LEO-LEO comparisons utilizing it as an intermediate reference sensor. VIIRS and ABI have spectrally matched bands and can have simultaneous measurements over any selected site every day. The simultaneous measurements over the same site also have various scan angles. These features provide advantages for a VIIRS-to-ABI comparison. The spectral response function difference between instruments, sites selected, and view angles will have effects on the instrument measurements. Their impacts on the calibration comparison, including the use of double differences, will be discussed. By collecting VIIRS measurements over a large range of view angles, the view angle effect will also be investigated. The collection of an ample amount of data provides an advantage for statistical analyses and potential big data applications to sensor calibration assessments. This method can also be applied to other sensor calibration comparison and performance assessments, such as GOES16 and GOES17 ABI, and Terra and Aqua MODIS.

Tiejun Chang↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Vertical Error Characteristics of GOES-derived Winds: Description and Impact on Numerical Weather Prediction

Errors in the height assignment of some satellite-derived winds exist because the satellites sense radiation emitted from a finite layer of the atmosphere rather than a specific level. Potential problems in data assimilation may arise because the motion of a measured layer is often represented by a single-level value. In this research, cloud and water vapor motion winds that are derived from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES winds) are compared to collocated rawinsonde observations (RAOBs). An important aspect of this work is that in addition to comparisons at each assigned height, the GOES winds are compared to the entire profile of the collocated RAOB data to determine the vertical error characteristics of the GOES winds. The impact of these results on numerical weather prediction is then investigated. The comparisons at individual vector height assignments indicate that the error of the GOES winds range from approx. 3 to 10 m/s and generally increase with height. However, if taken as a percentage of the total wind speed, accuracy is better at upper levels. As expected, comparisons with the entire profile of the collocated RAOBs indicate that clear-air water vapor winds represent deeper layers than do either infrared or water vapor cloud-tracked winds. This is because in cloud-free regions the signal from water vapor features may result from emittance over a thicker layer. To further investigate characteristics of the clear-air water vapor winds, they are stratified into two categories that are dependent on the depth of the layer represented by the vector. It is found that if the vertical gradient of moisture is smooth and uniform from near the height assignment upwards, the clear-air water vapor wind tends to represent a relatively deep layer. The information from the comparisons is then used in numerical model simulations of two separate events to determine the forecast impacts. Four simulations are performed for each case: 1) A control simulation that assimilates no satellite wind data, 2) assimilation of all GOES winds according to their assigned single level height, 3) assimilation of all GOES winds spread over multiple levels, and 4) assimilation of all GOES winds spread over multiple levels, but with variations in the vertical influence of clear-air water vapor winds based on the moisture profile in the model. In the first case, a strong mid-latitude cyclone is present and the use of the satellite data results in improved storm tracks during the initial approx. 36 h forecast period. This is because the satellite data improves the analysis of the environment into which the storm progresses. Statistics for mean wind vector and height differences show that, with the exception of the height field at later times in the first case, the use of GOES winds improves the simulation with time. The simulation results suggest that it is beneficial to spread the GOES wind information over multiple levels, particularly when the moisture profile is used to define the vertical influence.

Rao, P. Anil↗

NASA NTRS2010

Investigating the Performance of the Jason-2/OSTM Radar Altimeter Over Lakes and Reservoirs

Many inland water investigations utilize archival and near-real time radar altimetry data to enable observation of the variation in surface water level. A multi-altimeter approach allows a more global outlook with improved spatial resolution, and combined long-term observations improve statistical analyses. Central to all programs is a performance assessment of each instrument. Here, we focus on data quantity and quality pertaining to the Poseidon-3 radar altimeter onboard the Jason-2/OSTM satellite.Utilizing an interim data set (IGDR), studies show that the new on-board DIODE/median and DIODE/DEM tracking modes are performing well, acquiring and maintaining the majority of lake and reservoir surfaces in varying terrains. The 20-Hz along-track resolution of the data, and particularly the availability of the range output from the ice-retracker algorithm, also improves the number of valid height measurements. Based on test-case lakes and reservoirs, output from the ice-retracker algorithm is also seen to have a clear advantage over the ocean-retracker having better height stability across calm and icy surfaces, a greater ability to gain coastline waters, and less sensitivity to loss of water surface when there is island contamination in the radar echo. Such on-board tracking and postprocessing retracking enables the lake waters to be quickly gained after coastline crossing. Values can range from <0.1 s to 2.5 s, but the majority of measurements are obtained in less than 0.4 s or <2.3 km from the coast. Validation exercises reveal that targets of 150 km2 surface area and 0.8 km width are able to be monitored offering greater potential to acquire lakes in the 100 C300 km2 size-category. Time series of height variations are also found to be accurate to 3 to 33 cm rms depending on target size and the presence of winter ice. These findings are an improvement over the IGDR/GDR results from the predecessor Jason-1 and TOPEX/Poseidon missions and can satisfy the accuracy requirements of both the science-related and operational lake study programs.

Birkett, C. M.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Uncertainties in Coastal Ocean Color Products: Impacts of Spatial Sampling

With increasing demands for ocean color (OC) products with improved accuracy and well characterized, per-retrieval uncertainty budgets, it is vital to decompose overall estimated errors into their primary components. Amongst various contributing elements (e.g., instrument calibration, atmospheric correction, inversion algorithms) in the uncertainty of an OC observation, less attention has been paid to uncertainties associated with spatial sampling. In this paper, we simulate MODIS (aboard both Aqua and Terra) and VIIRS OC products using 30 m resolution OC products derived from the Operational Land Imager (OLI) aboard Landsat-8, to examine impacts of spatial sampling on both cross-sensor product intercomparisons and in-situ validations of R(sub rs) products in coastal waters. Various OLI OC products representing different productivity levels and in-water spatial features were scanned for one full orbital-repeat cycle of each ocean color satellite. While some view-angle dependent differences in simulated Aqua-MODIS and VIIRS were observed, the average uncertainties (absolute) in product intercomparisons (due to differences in spatial sampling) at regional scales are found to be 1.8%, 1.9%, 2.4%, 4.3%, 2.7%, 1.8%, and 4% for the R(sub rs)(443), R(sub rs)(482), R(sub rs)(561), R(sub rs)(655), Chla, K(sub d)(482), and b(sub bp)(655) products, respectively. It is also found that, depending on in-water spatial variability and the sensor's footprint size, the errors for an in-situ validation station in coastal areas can reach as high as +/- 18%. We conclude that a) expected biases induced by the spatial sampling in product intercomparisons are mitigated when products are averaged over at least 7 km × 7 km areas, b) VIIRS observations, with improved consistency in cross-track spatial sampling, yield more precise calibration/validation statistics than that of MODIS, and c) use of a single pixel centered on in-situ coastal stations provides an optimal sampling size for validation efforts. These findings will have implications for enhancing our understanding of uncertainties in ocean color retrievals and for planning of future ocean color missions and the associated calibration/validation exercises.

Coastal ocean color↗

NASA NTRS2010

Solar Array Disturbances to Spacecraft Pointing During the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Mission

The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), the first spacecraft to support NASA s return to the Moon, launched on June 18, 2009 from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station aboard an Atlas V launch vehicle. It was initially inserted into a direct trans-lunar trajectory to the Moon. After a five day transit to the Moon, LRO was inserted into the Lunar orbit and successfully lowered to a low altitude elliptical polar orbit for spacecraft commissioning. Successful commissioning was completed in October 2009 when LRO was placed in its near circular mission orbit with an approximate altitude of 50km. LRO will spend at least one year orbiting the Moon, collecting lunar environment science and mapping data, utilizing a suite of seven instruments to enable future human exploration. The objective is to provide key science data necessary to facilitate human return to the Moon as well as identification of opportunities for future science missions. LRO's instrument suite will provide the high resolution imaging data with sub-meter accuracy, highly accurate lunar cartographic maps, mineralogy mapping, amongst other science data of interest. LRO employs a 3-axis stabilized attitude control system (ACS) whose primary control mode, the "Observing Mode", provides Lunar nadir, off-nadir, and inertial fine pointing for the science data collection and instrument calibration. This controller combines the capability of fine pointing with on-demand large angle full-sky attitude reorientation. It provides simplicity of spacecraft operation as well as additional flexibility for science data collection. A conventional suite of ACS components is employed in the Observing Mode to meet the pointing and control objectives. Actuation is provided by a set of four reaction wheels developed in-house at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). Attitude feedback is provided by a six state Kalman filter which utilizes two SELEX Galileo Star Trackers for attitude updates, and a single Honeywell Miniature Inertial Measurement Unit (MIMU) to provide body rates for attitude propagation. Rate is computed by differentiating accumulated angle provided by the MIMU. The Observing Mode controller is required to maintain fine pointing while a large fully-articulated solar array (SA) maintains its panel normal to the solar incidence. This paper describes the disturbances to the attitude control resulting from the SA articulation. Observing Mode performance in the presence of this disturbance was assessed while the spacecraft was in an initial elliptical low altitude orbit during the commissioning phase, which started about two weeks after launch and lasted for 90 days. LRO demonstrated excellent pointing performance during Observing Mode nadir and inertial attitude target operations during this phase. Transient LRO attitude errors observed during commissioning resulted primarily from three sources, Diviner instrument calibrations, RW zero crossings, and SA articulation. Even during times of considerable disturbance from SA articulation, the attitude errors were maintained below the statistical attitude error requirement level of 15 arc-sec (3 sigma).

Calhoun, Philip↗

NASA NTRS2005

Forecasting Lightning at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a set of statistical forecast equations that provide a probability of lightning occurrence on Kennedy Space Center (KSC) I Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) for the day during the warm season (May September). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) forecasters at CCAFS in Florida include a probability of lightning occurrence in their daily 24-hour and weekly planning forecasts, which are briefed at 1100 UTC (0700 EDT). This information is used for general scheduling of operations at CCAFS and KSC. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts for the KSC/CCAFS area during Shuttle flight operations. Much of the current lightning probability forecast at both groups is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data. The objective tool currently available is the Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI, Neumann 1971), developed specifically for the KSCICCAFS area over 30 years ago. However, recent studies have shown that 1-day persistence provides a better forecast than the NPTI, indicating that the NPTI needed to be upgraded or replaced. Because they require a tool that provides a reliable estimate of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast, the 45 WS forecasters requested that the AMU develop a new lightning probability forecast tool using recent data and more sophisticated techniques now possible through more computing power than that available over 30 years ago. The equation development incorporated results from two research projects that investigated causes of lightning occurrence near KSCICCAFS and over the Florida peninsula. One proved that logistic regression outperformed the linear regression method used in NPTI, even when the same predictors were used. The other study found relationships between large scale flow regimes and spatial lightning distributions over Florida. Lightning, probabilities based on these flow regimes were used as candidate predictors in the equation development. Fifteen years (1 989-2003) of warm season data were used to develop the forecast equations. The data sources included a local network of cloud-to-ground lightning sensors called the Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS), 1200 UTC Florida synoptic soundings, and the 1000 UTC CCAFS sounding. Data from CGLSS were used to determine lightning occurrence for each day. The 1200 UTC soundings were used to calculate the synoptic-scale flow regimes and the 1000 UTC soundings were used to calculate local stability parameters, which were used as candidate predictors of lightning occurrence. Five logistic regression forecast equations were created through careful selection and elimination of the candidate predictors. The resulting equations contain five to six predictors each. Results from four performance tests indicated that the equations showed an increase in skill over several standard forecasting methods, good reliability, an ability to distinguish between non-lightning and lightning days, and good accuracy measures and skill scores. Given the overall good performance the 45 WS requested that the equations be transitioned to operations and added to the current set of tools used to determine the daily lightning probability of occurrence.

Lambert, Winfred↗