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At least 901 records · Page 50

A Multi-Region SEIR Model Incorporating Inter-County Mobility and Time-Dependent Transmission Dynamics: Application to COVID-19 Disease Outbreak Data in North Carolina.

Classical infectious disease compartmental models typically do not incorporate spatial heterogeneity or mobility. We develop a multi-region susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model in which disease dynamics are coupled via inter-region mobility and the transmission rate is both region and time dependent. We calibrate the model using rolling averages of daily COVID-19 data in all 100 North Carolina counties. Mobility parameters are prescribed using daily inter-county commuter data. The number of transmission rate parameters is substantially reduced by hypothesizing that the dynamics correlate with county-level population density. Parameter estimation is carried out using several objective functions with error terms at different scales. An additive combination of least squares error at the county-level and the state-level, along with a quadratic transmission rate polynomial, yields the lowest overall error at both spatial scales. The calibrated model is used to simulate regional effects of perturbing disease transmission rates in adjacent counties and to illustrate effects of the state’s mobility infrastructure on disease dynamics and spread for a new disease outbreak.

COVID-19 modeling↗

A new interpretation of luminous blue stars

A major revision of current theoretical ideas about the brightest blue stars must be made if Carson's (1976) radiative opacities are adopted in stellar models. Unlike earlier opacities, these exhibit a large 'bump' due to CNO ionization, which leads to very strong central condensation, convective instability, and pulsational instability in hot diffuse stellar envelopes. Despite a number of theoretical uncertainties, the new picture of the structure of very luminous stars is reasonably successful in accounting for a variety of previously unexplained observations. The stellar models for the phase of core hydrogen burning predict large radii and rather cool effective temperatures for O stars and a spreading out of the main-sequence band in the H-R diagram toward luminous cool supergiants for masses higher than about 20 solar masses. In massive X-ray binary systems, circular orbits and supergiant-like visual companions are expected to be quite common. Long-period variability is predicted to exist for massive blue supergiants of luminosity class Ia. The models for helium stars predict large radii and rather cool effective temperatures for Wolf-Rayet stars, as well as multimodal pulsational instability and, possibly, surface turbulence for these stars.

Stothers, R.↗

TDCOSMO. IX. Systematic comparison between lens modelling software programs: time delay prediction for WGD 2038-4008

The importance of alternative methods for measuring the Hubble constant, such as time-delay cosmography, is highlighted by the recent Hubble tension. It is paramount to thoroughly investigate and rule out systematic biases in all measurement methods before we can accept new physics as the source of this tension. In this study, we perform a check for systematic biases in the lens modelling procedure of time-delay cosmography by comparing independent and blind time-delay predictions of the system WGD 2038-4008 from two teams using two different software programs: GLEE and LENSTRONOMY. The predicted time delays from the two teams incorporate the stellar kinematics of the deflector and the external convergence from line-of-sight structures. The un-blinded time-delay predictions from the two teams agree within 1.2σ, implying that once the time delay is measured the inferred Hubble constant will also be mutually consistent. However, there is a ~4σ discrepancy between the power-law model slope and external shear, which is a significant discrepancy at the level of lens models before the stellar kinematics and the external convergence are incorporated. We identify the difference in the reconstructed point spread function (PSF) to be the source of this discrepancy. When the same reconstructed PSF was used by both teams, we achieved excellent agreement, within ~0.6σ<, indicating that potential systematics stemming from source reconstruction algorithms and investigator choices are well under control. We recommend that future studies supersample the PSF as needed and marginalize over multiple algorithms or realizations for the PSF reconstruction to mitigate the systematics associated with the PSF. A future study will measure the time delays of the system WGD 2038-4008 and infer the Hubble constant based on our mass models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evolution of solid electrolyte interphase and active material in the silicon wafer model system

Alloying anode materials for lithium-ion batteries, such as silicon (Si), are an important focus of materials research due to the demand for increased energy density for electric vehicles and stationary grid storage. However, progress towards next generation anode materials has been hindered by poor capacity retention due to the instability of the Si active material and the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI). Herein, the evolution of the active Si material and the SEI are simultaneously investigated from the perspective of chemical, structural, morphological, and electronic evolution in the Si wafer model system through its cycling life, using time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (TOF-SIMS), scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM), atomic force microscopy (AFM), and scanning spreading resistance microscopy (SSRM). The results illustrate a dynamic evolution of the SEI and active Si material through cycling. Through an improved understanding of evolution of SEI and Si active material within the Si wafer model system, mitigation strategies may be designed to extend the lifetime of Si anodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Turbulent Concentration of mm-Size Particles in the Protoplanetary Nebula: Scale-Dependent Cascades

The initial accretion of primitive bodies (here, asteroids in particular) from freely-floating nebula particles remains problematic. Traditional growth-by-sticking models encounter a formidable "meter-size barrier" (or even a mm-to-cm-size barrier) in turbulent nebulae, making the preconditions for so-called "streaming instabilities" difficult to achieve even for so-called "lucky" particles. Even if growth by sticking could somehow breach the meter size barrier, turbulent nebulae present further obstacles through the 1-10km size range. On the other hand, nonturbulent nebulae form large asteroids too quickly to explain long spreads in formation times, or the dearth of melted asteroids. Theoretical understanding of nebula turbulence is itself in flux; recent models of MRI (magnetically-driven) turbulence favor low-or- no-turbulence environments, but purely hydrodynamic turbulence is making a comeback, with two recently discovered mechanisms generating robust turbulence which do not rely on magnetic fields at all. An important clue regarding planetesimal formation is an apparent 100km diameter peak in the pre-depletion, pre-erosion mass distribution of asteroids; scenarios leading directly from independent nebula particulates to large objects of this size, which avoid the problematic m-km size range, could be called "leapfrog" scenarios. The leapfrog scenario we have studied in detail involves formation of dense clumps of aerodynamically selected, typically mm-size particles in turbulence, which can under certain conditions shrink inexorably on 100-1000 orbit timescales and form 10-100km diameter sandpile planetesimals. There is evidence that at least the ordinary chondrite parent bodies were initially composed entirely of a homogeneous mix of such particles. Thus, while they are arcane, turbulent concentration models acting directly on chondrule size particles are worthy of deeper study. The typical sizes of planetesimals and the rate of their formation can be estimated using a statistical model with properties inferred from large numerical simulations of turbulence. Nebula turbulence is described by its Reynolds number Re = (L/eta)(exp 4/3), where L = H alpha(exp 1/2) is the largest eddy scale, H is the nebula gas vertical scale height, alpha the turbulent viscosity parameter, and eta is the Kolmogorov or smallest scale in turbulence (typically about 1km), with eddy turnover time t(sub eta). In the nebula, Re is far larger than any numerical simulation can handle, so some physical arguments are needed to extend the results of numerical simulations to nebula conditions. In this paper, we report new physics to be incorporated into our statistical models.

mm-size particles↗

Using Climate Models to Evaluate Mechanisms of Glacial Inception

The initiation and subsequent growth of an ice sheet or large glacier is based on two primary factors: 1. Most fundamentally, a region must exist with a positive net snow accumulation, that is, cold season snowfall exceeds warm season snowmelt. Because snow can melt very rapidly, in a practical sense this probably means that little or no snow melt should occur in the warm season (mountain glaciers being one possible exception). 2. When sufficient ice builds in a region with a positive net snow accumulation, the ice will flow into adjoining regions with a negative mass balance. Feedbacks can also then arise between the emerging ice sheet and the overall climate, which, among other effects, may cause the mass balance in that region to turn positive. A key question is the relative importance of these two factors. In particular, is it possible for a large lowland region to experience a positive mass balance, such that the ice sheet can arise largely 'in-situ'? Or instead are uplands necessary, such that essentially mountain glaciers form first, and then, under the right conditions, grow and coalesce, eventually spreading out into the lowlands? This is probably the single most fundamental question to be addressed in the modeling of glacial inception. Other key questions then focus on how the (upland or low-land) positive mass balance is obtained at some times, but not others (the ice sheets are not continuously present). For Northern Hemisphere ice sheets in particular, what climatic conditions can lead to abundant winter snowfall in the Canadian Arctic and northern Labrador in conjunction with cool summertime conditions? Are both required, or will cool summer conditions alone suffice? Conversely, are a few years of abnormally heavy snowfall all that is required to trigger glacial inception? A major need at present is for carefully constructed climate model studies aimed at addressing these questions. A successful strategy will almost certainly require more than just a global model; while the global climate model might be necessary to properly simulate large-scale forcing, such models have insufficient spatial resolution to adequately address the roles of topography and the nature of the land surface. Necessary also is the use of a high-resolution regional climate model (in conjunction with a global model). Possible forcing mechanisms of Pleistocene ice ages are well known (e.g., orbital forcing; CO2 fluctuations) but we must understand and be able to successfully model the actual processes involved in glacial inception before we can fully understand the true roles played by these forcing mechanisms.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗

Numerical Simulation of Nanostructure Growth

Nanoscale structures, such as nanowires and carbon nanotubes (CNTs), are often grown in gaseous or plasma environments. Successful growth of these structures is defined by achieving a specified crystallinity or chirality, size or diameter, alignment, etc., which in turn depend on gas mixture ratios. pressure, flow rate, substrate temperature, and other operating conditions. To date, there has not been a rigorous growth model that addresses the specific concerns of crystalline nanowire growth, while demonstrating the correct trends of the processing conditions on growth rates. Most crystal growth models are based on the Burton, Cabrera, and Frank (BCF) method, where adatoms are incorporated into a growing crystal at surface steps or spirals. When the supersaturation of the vapor is high, islands nucleate to form steps, and these steps subsequently spread (grow). The overall bulk growth rate is determined by solving for the evolving motion of the steps. Our approach is to use a phase field model to simulate the growth of finite sized nanowire crystals, linking the free energy equation with the diffusion equation of the adatoms. The phase field method solves for an order parameter that defines the evolving steps in a concentration field. This eliminates the need for explicit front tracking/location, or complicated shadowing routines, both of which can be computationally expensive, particularly in higher dimensions. We will present results demonstrating the effect of process conditions, such as substrate temperature, vapor supersaturation, etc. on the evolving morphologies and overall growth rates of the nanostructures.

Hwang, Helen H.↗

An Experimental Study of Swirling Flows as Applied to Annular Combustors

This thesis presents an experimental study of swirling flows with direct applications to gas turbine combustors. Two separate flowfields were investigated: a round, swirling jet and a non-combusting annular combustor model. These studies were intended to allow both a further understanding of the behavior of general swirling flow characteristics, such as the recirculation zone, as well as to provide a base for the development of computational models. In order to determine the characteristics of swirling flows the concentration fields of a round, swirling jet were analyzed for varying amount of swirl. The experimental method used was a light scattering concentration measurement technique known as marker nephelometry. Results indicated the formation of a zone of recirculating fluid for swirl ratios (rotational speed x jet radius over mass average axial velocity) above a certain critical value. The size of this recirculation zone, as well as the spread angle of the jet, was found to increase with increase in the amount of applied swirl. The annular combustor model flowfield simulated the cold-flow characteristics of typical current annular combustors: swirl, recirculation, primary air cross jets and high levels of turbulence. The measurements in the combustor model made by the Laser Doppler Velocimetry technique, allowed the evaluation of the mean and rms velocities in the three coordinate directions, one Reynold's shear stress component and the turbulence kinetic energy: The primary cross jets were found to have a very strong effect on both the mean and turbulence flowfields. These cross jets, along with a large step change in area and wall jet inlet flow pattern, reduced the overall swirl in the test section to negligible levels. The formation of the strong recirculation zone is due mainly to the cross jets and the large step change in area. The cross jets were also found to drive a four-celled vortex-type motion (parallel to the combustor longitudinal axis) near the cross jet injection plane.

Seal, Michael Damian, II↗

Data Reduction Pipeline for the CHARIS Integral-Field Spectrograph I: Detector Readout Calibration and Data Cube Extraction

We present the data reduction pipeline for CHARIS, a high-contrast integral-field spectrograph for the Subaru Telescope. The pipeline constructs a ramp from the raw reads using the measured nonlinear pixel response and reconstructs the data cube using one of three extraction algorithms: aperture photometry, optimal extraction, or chi-squared fitting. We measure and apply both a detector flatfield and a lenslet flatfield and reconstruct the wavelength- and position-dependent lenslet point-spread function (PSF) from images taken with a tunable laser. We use these measured PSFs to implement a chi-squared-based extraction of the data cube, with typical residuals of approximately 5 percent due to imperfect models of the under-sampled lenslet PSFs. The full two-dimensional residual of the chi-squared extraction allows us to model and remove correlated read noise, dramatically improving CHARIS's performance. The chi-squared extraction produces a data cube that has been deconvolved with the line-spread function and never performs any interpolations of either the data or the individual lenslet spectra. The extracted data cube also includes uncertainties for each spatial and spectral measurement. CHARIS's software is parallelized, written in Python and Cython, and freely available on github with a separate documentation page. Astrometric and spectrophotometric calibrations of the data cubes and PSF subtraction will be treated in a forthcoming paper.

Brandt, Timothy D.↗

Direct Observations of Solute Dispersion in Rocks With Distinct Degree of Sub‐Micron Porosity

Abstract The transport of chemical species in rocks is affected by their structural heterogeneity to yield a wide spectrum of local solute concentrations. To quantify such imperfect mixing, advanced methodologies are needed that augment the traditional breakthrough curve analysis by probing solute concentration within the fluids locally. Here, we demonstrate the application of asynchronous, multimodality imaging by X‐ray computed tomography (XCT) and positron emission tomography (PET) to the study of passive tracer experiments in laboratory rock cores. The four‐dimensional concentration maps measured by PET reveal specific signatures of the transport process, which we have quantified using fundamental measures of mixing and spreading. We observe that the extent of solute spreading correlate strongly with the strength of subcore‐scale porosity heterogeneity measured by XCT, while dilution is enhanced in rocks containing substantial sub‐micron porosity. We observe that the analysis of different metrics is necessary, as they can differ in their sensitivity to the strength and forms of heterogeneity. The multimodality imaging approach is uniquely suited to probe the fundamental difference between spreading and mixing in heterogeneous media. We propose that when multi‐dimensional data is available, mixing and spreading can be independently quantified using the same metric. We also demonstrate that one‐dimensional transport models have limited predictive ability toward the internal evolution of the solute concentration, when the model is solely calibrated against the effluent breakthrough curves. The data set generated in this study can be used to build realistic digital rock models and to benchmark transport simulations that account deterministically for rock property heterogeneity.

Kurotori, Takeshi [Department of Chemical Engineer↗

An accurate measurement of the spectral resolution of the JWST Near Infrared Spectrograph

The spectral resolution (R ≡ λ/Δλ) of spectroscopic data is crucial information for accurate kinematic measurements. In this letter we present a robust measurement of the spectral resolution of the JWST Near Infrared Spectrograph (NIRSpec) in fixed slit (FS) and integral field spectroscopy (IFS) modes. Due to the similarity of the utilized slit dimension in the FS mode to that of the shutters in the multi-object spectroscopy (MOS) mode, our resolution measurements in the FS mode can also be used for the MOS mode in principle. We modeled H and He lines of the planetary nebula SMP LMC 58 using a Gaussian line spread function (LSF) to estimate the wavelength-dependent resolution for multiple disperser and filter combinations. We corrected for the intrinsic width of the planetary nebula’s H and He lines due to its expansion velocity by measuring it from a higher-resolution X-shooter spectrum. We find that NIRSpec’s in-flight spectral resolutions exceed the pre-launch estimates provided in the JWST User Documentation by 11–53% in the FS mode and by 1–24% in the IFS mode across the covered wavelengths. We recover the expected trend that the resolution increases with the wavelength within a configuration. The robust and accurate LSFs presented in this letter will enable high-accuracy kinematic measurements using NIRSpec for applications in cosmology and galaxy evolution.

methods: data analysis↗

Comparison of satellite theories

The accuracy of five mathematical models in computing a nominal orbit for the Vanguard 2 satellite by using a position velocity vector is considered. Either numerical integration or analytical theories are used in all models as well as the same force model that corresponds to a potential with the zonal harmonics to order four. The amounts of spread in the values of the total energy and the z-component of the angular momentum for a set of times are considered as measures of accuracy.

Hertz, H. G.↗

Stability of partially lined combustors with distributed combustion

An integral method for theoretical evaluation of the stability of confined flows with mass sources is presented. This method is applied to evaluate the effect of partial length acoustic liners on liquid propellant combustors with distributed combustion sources. The combustor is modeled as a right circular cylinder terminated by a multiorifice (constant Mach number) nozzle. The spatial spread of combustion in the chamber is represented by an arbitrary number of pressure sensitive planar mass sources. On the cylindrical periphery of the chamber is an acoustic absorber of arbitrary length, position, and damping capability. Integral equations are developed from the partial differential equations describing the nonsteady flow and are solved iteratively. Results are given in terms of linear neutral stability plots using a pressure sensitive combustion response. Calculations indicate that increasing the axial spread of combustion increases the stability of the combustor and the effectiveness of the absorber. The most effective linear placement appears at the location of greatest combustion concentration.

Baer, M. R.↗

Solution of the radiative transfer theory problems by the Monte Carlo method

The Monte Carlo method is used for two types of problems. First, there are interpretation problems of optical observations from meteorological satellites in the short wave part of the spectrum. The sphericity of the atmosphere, the propagation function, and light polarization are considered. Second, problems dealt with the theory of spreading narrow light beams. Direct simulation of light scattering and the mathematical form of medium radiation model representation are discussed, and general integral transfer equations are calculated. The dependent tests method, derivative estimates, and solution to the inverse problem are also considered.

Marchuk, G. I.↗

Multiple-scale turbulence modeling of boundary layer flows for scramjet applications

As part of an investigation into the application of turbulence models to the computation of flows in advanced scramjet combustors, the multiple-scale turbulence model was applied to a variety of flowfield predictions. The model appears to have a potential for improved predictions in a variety of areas relevant to combustor problems. This potential exists because of the partition of the turbulence energy spectrum that is the major feature of the model and which allows the turbulence energy dissipation rate to be out of phase with turbulent energy production. The computations were made using a consistent method of generating experimentally unavailable initial conditions. An appreciable overall improvement in the generality of the predictions is observed, as compared to those of the basic two-equation turbulence model. A Mach number-related correction is found to be necessary to satisfactorily predict the spreading rate of the supersonic jet and mixing layer.

Fabris, G.↗

Multiple-scale turbulence modeling of free turbulent flows

As part of an investigation into the application of turbulence models to the computation of flows in advanced scramjet combustors, the multiple-scale turbulence model has been applied to a variety of flowfield predictions. The model appears to have a potential for improved predictions in a variety of areas relevant to combustor problems. This potential exists because of the partition of the turbulence energy spectrum that is the major feature of the model and which allows the turbulence energy dissipation rate to be out of phase with turbulent energy production. To establish the general reliability of the approach, it has been tested through comparison of predictions with experimental data. An appreciable overall improvement in the generality of the predictions is observed, as compared to those of the basic two-equation turbulence model. A Mach number-related correction is found to be necessary to satisfactorily predict the spreading rate of the supersonic jet and mixing layer.

Fabris, G.↗

Shape of Io

An approach for measuring the triaxial shape of Io from Voyager images is described. Triaxial shape of a satellite is detrmined by comparing the theoretical shape and location of the body's limb and terminator curves with the actual curves observed in the two dimensional images. Limb or terminator points are found by matching a model for the limb profile with the actual appearance of the limb in the digital data. The theoretical model for the limb model depends on the viewing and illumination geometry, the satellite reflection characteristics and the camera 'point spread function'. The method is applied to imaging data taken of Io in the last 25 hours befor Voyager 1's closet approach to the satellite.

Synnott, S. P.↗