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Simulated wind speed and initial conditions over the WFIP2 region: Sea-breeze (D01)

The purpose of this work is to assess the sensitivity of the forecast for turbine height wind speed to initial condition (IC) uncertainties over the Columbia River Gorge and Columbia River Basin for two typical weather phenomena: a local thermal gradient induced by a marine air intrusion and passage of a cold front. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model data assimilation system (WRFDA) was used to generate ensemble ICs from the North American Regional Analysis (NARR) for the WRF model initialization. The simulated turbine-height wind speeds were categorized into four types using the self-organizing map (SOM) technique. This work advances understanding of IC uncertainties impacts on wind speed forecasts and locates the high-impact regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Simulated wind speed and initial conditions over the WFIP2 region: Sea-breeze (D02)

The purpose of this work is to assess the sensitivity of the forecast for turbine height wind speed to initial condition (IC) uncertainties over the Columbia River Gorge and Columbia River Basin for two typical weather phenomena: a local thermal gradient induced by a marine air intrusion and passage of a cold front. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model data assimilation system (WRFDA) was used to generate ensemble ICs from the North American Regional Analysis (NARR) for the WRF model initialization. The simulated turbine-height wind speeds were categorized into four types using the self-organizing map (SOM) technique. This work advances understanding of IC uncertainties impacts on wind speed forecasts and locates the high-impact regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Which nuclear data can be validated with LLNL pulsed-sphere experiments?

It is shown here that 14-MeV D+T LLNL pulsed-sphere experiments bring complementary information into the process of validating nuclear data compared to experiments that are traditionally used for this purpose—such as critical assemblies. To be more specific, the 14-MeV D+T LLNL pulsed-sphere neutron-leakage spectra enable to validate scattering and fission nuclear data up to 15 MeV (compared to approximately up to 5 MeV when using criticality experiments) and employ to this end simple compound targets containing only few isotopes. In this work, sensitivity profiles of the spectra to nuclear data are calculated in order to understand in detail which isotopes, observables, and energy ranges of nuclear data contribute significantly to their simulation. These profiles are presented for a few selected spheres containing 16 O, 12 C, 56 Fe, and 239 Pu. It is shown that the neutron-leakage spectra of spheres containing light elements are mostly sensitive to elastic- and inelastic-scattering cross sections on discrete levels and corresponding angular distributions. Spheres of structural materials are sensitive to elastic- and inelastic-scattering cross sections, including scattering on discrete levels and the continuum, and double-differential cross sections. Actinide spheres are also strongly sensitive to the fission observables, in particular to the total-fission neutron spectrum. Thin spheres (in which neutrons experience on average less than one scatter) are mostly sensitive to data near the elastic peak, in the energy range from 12–15 MeV, while thicker ones can be sensitive to data at lower incident-neutron energies due to multiple-scattering effects. This information is brought together with simulations of 71 pulsed-sphere neutron-leakage spectra using the ENDF/B-VII.1 and ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear-data libraries. This analysis highlights ENDF/B-VIII.0 data that could be further investigated for potential shortcomings ( 6 Li, 12 C, 16 O, 24-26 Mg, 27 Al, 48 Ti, 56 Fe, and 208 Pb) or are likely reliable ( 1,2 H, 7 Li, 9 Be, 14 N, 235,238 U, and 239 Pu) as indicated by validating with LLNL pulsed-sphere experiments.

14-MeV D+T LLNL pulsed-sphere neutron-leakage spec↗

Measurement of a radial flow profile with eddy current flow meters and deep neural networks

Eddy current flow meters (ECFMs) measure flows of conductive fluids. Recent interest in ECFMs has increased due to applications in advanced nuclear reactors. ECFMs are well suited for such applications, as they can provide non-invasive measurements of flow in fluids that are often difficult to measure. Traditionally, ECFMs are operated using an alternating current at a single frequency, limiting ECFMs to measure average fluid velocities, blockages, or voids. Here, we expand the capabilities of ECFMs by measuring the fluid radial velocity profile of liquid mercury. To accomplish this, we made several ECFM sensitivity measurements at a range of frequencies. Different frequencies vary the electromagnetic skin depth of the device. By adjusting frequencies, we probed the fluid velocity at various radial locations and constructed a flow-velocity profile. The relationship between the ECFM measurements and velocity profile is nonlinear and requires solving an inverse problem. Using electromagnetic finite-element simulations to train a deep neural network (DNN), we created a model that provides a stable general relationship between the sensitivity measurements of an ECFM and the fluid velocity profile. Using ECFM measurements of liquid mercury, our DNN model calculates a flow profile that agrees well with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. This technique has potential to improve flow monitoring for optimization, safe operation of conductive fluid loops, and/or validating complex CFD models.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Sensitivity Study for Forecasting Variables of WRF-Solar Using a Tangent Linear Approach

Integrating solar generation in recent years has highlighted the need for improved accuracy in predicting solar power. Confidence in solar power forecasting can be achieved by designing an ensemble that provides reliable probabilistic information for solar radiation with reduced uncertainty and error. Ideally, ensemble members are created through the optimized perturbation of the initial conditions in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Tangent linear models are capable of efficiently investigating the sensitivity of solar radiation to model input parameters because they do not require individual perturbation of each variable. This sensitivity study using tangent linear models provide us the capability to identify the right variables to perturb in an ensemble prediction system. In this study, we developed tangent linear models for WRF-Solar modules that directly impact the computation of solar radiation and the simulation of cloud formation and dissipation including the Fast All-sky Model for Solar Applications (FARMS), the Noah land surface model (LSM), the Thompson microphysics, the Mello-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, and the Deng scheme for a shallow-convection parameterization. A sensitivity analysis was conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) and WRF-Solar, respectively. Critical forecasting variables that are highly sensitive to the forecasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes were determined using the relevant WRF-Solar module. This study will be used as a guidance on future research leading to high-quality probabilistic solar forecasting. In this presentation, we discuss the validation of tangent linear approach for WRF-Solar modules and illustrate how the sensitivity results are valuable in the improvement of probabilistic solar prediction.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Variation of carrier density in semimetals via short-range correlation: A case study with nickelate NdNiO 2

Carrier density is one of the key controlling factors of material properties, particularly in controlling the essential correlations in strongly correlated materials. Typically, carrier density is externally tuned by doping or gating and remains fixed below room temperature. Strangely, the carrier density in correlated semimetals is often found to vary sensitively against weak external controls such as temperature, magnetic field, and pressure. Here, we develop a realistic simulation scheme that incorporates interatomic noncollinear magnetic correlation without a long-range order. Using the recently discovered nickelate superconductor as an example, we demonstrate a rather generic low-energy mechanism that in semimetals short-range correlation can reversely modulate the carrier density as well. Such a mutual influence between correlation and carrier density provides an extra ingredient for sensitive bifurcating behavior. This special feature of correlated semimetals explains their versatile carrier density at low energy and opens up new possibilities of functionalizing these materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

New Constraints on the Dark Matter Density Profiles of Dwarf Galaxies from Proper Motions of Globular Cluster Streams

The central density profiles in dwarf galaxy halos depend strongly on the nature of dark matter (DM). Recently, in Malhan et al. we employed N-body simulations to show that the cuspy cold DM subhalos predicted by cosmological simulations can be differentiated from cored subhalos using the properties of accreted globular cluster (GC) streams since these GCs experience tidal stripping within their parent halos prior to accretion onto the Milky Way. We previously found that clusters that are accreted within cuspy subhalos produce streams with larger physical widths and higher dispersions in line-of-sight velocity and angular momentum than streams that are accreted within cored subhalos. Here, we use the same suite of simulations to demonstrate that the dispersion in the tangential velocities of streams (${\sigma }_{{v}_{\mathrm{Tan}}}$) is also sensitive to the central DM density profiles of their parent dwarfs and GCs that they were accreted from; cuspy subhalos produce streams with larger ${\sigma }_{{v}_{\mathrm{Tan}}}$ than those accreted inside cored subhalos. Using Gaia EDR3 observations of multiple GC streams we compare their ${\sigma }_{{v}_{\mathrm{Tan}}}$ values with simulations. The measured ${\sigma }_{{v}_{\mathrm{Tan}}}$ values are consistent with both an “in situ” origin and with accretion inside cored subhalos of M ~ 10 8–9 M ⊙ (or very low-mass cuspy subhalos of mass ~10 8 M ⊙ ). Despite the large current uncertainties in ${\sigma }_{{v}_{\mathrm{Tan}}}$, we find a low probability that any of the progenitor GCs were accreted from cuspy subhalos of M ≳ 10 9 M ⊙ . The uncertainties on Gaia tangential velocity measurements are expected to decrease in future and will allow for stronger constraints on subhalo DM density profiles.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Generation of gamma radiation by a subterawatt ultrashort laser pulse: optimisation of preplasma and pulse duration

We report an experimental and numerical study of the acceleration of electrons in a plasma interacting with a subterawatt laser pulse (intensity of ∼3 × 10{sup 18} W cm{sup −2} at a pulse duration of 50 fs). A preplasma layer on the surface of a molybdenum target is formed by an additional laser pulse with a duration of 8 ns and an intensity of ∼2 × 10{sup 12} W cm{sup −2}. It is shown that an increase in the laser pulse duration to 1700 fs at a constant energy (and a proportional decrease in intensity) leads to an increase in the yield of bremsstrahlung γ-radiation by more than an order of magnitude when the nanosecond pulse is ahead of the femtosecond one by 15 − 25 ns. Interferometry data and results of diagnostics of optical and γ-radiation of a plasma demonstrate that the collisional ionisation of atoms by electrons oscillating in the field of such a laser pulse plays an essential role in the formation of electron density profile. The sensitivity of the described effect to the level of amplified spontaneous emission is determined, despite the nanosecond pulse impact. Numerical simulations show that at a large pulse duration, the acceleration of electrons is stipulated by the beaking of plasma waves excited during stimulated Raman scattering of laser radiation. (paper)

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The development of the NNBAR experiment

The NNBAR experiment for the European Spallation Source will search for free neutrons converting to antineutrons with a sensitivity improvement of three orders of magnitude compared to the last such search. This paper describes progress towards a conceptual design report for NNBAR. The design of a moderator, neutron reflector, beamline, shielding and annihilation detector is reported. The simulations used form part of a model which will be used for optimisation of the experiment design and quantification of its sensitivity.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

IM3 Data Center Driven Grid Stress Dataset for the U.S. Western Interconnection

This dataset provides projected grid stress and reliability results (including all model inputs and outputs from an open-source grid operations modeling framework - GO), for the Integrated Multisector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project, under varying levels of data center demand growth between 2025 and 2035 in the U.S. Western Interconnection. The scenarios and sensitivity experiments are combinations of different data center demand growth rates and energy, weather, population and economic pathways. Data center demand growth projections were sourced from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The data center demand growth projection names are: Low (3.71% annual data center demand growth) Moderate (5% annual data center demand growth) High (10% annual data center demand growth) Higher (15% annual data center demand growth) Energy, weather, population and economic pathways are informed by two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) following the hotter general circulation model (GCM) forcing group from a set of perturbed thermodynamics simulations. The resulting pathway names are: rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 The main scenarios and sensitivity experiments are detailed below. Reference scenario: The projected grid stress and reliability results for the U.S. Western Interconnection from a previous study. This scenario does not consider data center demand growth explicitly. Data center scenario: Building on the reference scenario, this scenario considers various data center growth rates and how they impact the U.S. Western Interconnection. Data center loads are modeled as flat 8760-hr profiles. This scenario does not consider new generation and transmission capacities specifically designed to meet the new data center demands. The related folder is named "flat". Delayed generator retirements sensitivity experiment: Building on the data center scenario, this experiment explores the impact of different levels of natural gas and nuclear generator retirement delays. The resulting scenario names are: (1) postponing 100% nuclear retirements; (2) postponing 100% nuclear and 25% natural gas retirements; (3) postponing only 50% natural gas retirements; (4) postponing 100% nuclear and 50% natural gas retirements; (5) postponing 100% nuclear and 75% natural gas retirements; and (6) postponing 100% nuclear and 100% natural gas retirements. The related folder names are: no_gen_retire_0_gas, no_gen_retire_25_gas, no_gen_retire_50_gas, no_gen_retire_50_gas_only, no_gen_retire_75_gas, and no_gen_retire_100_gas. Demand response through curtailment sensitivity experiment: Building on the data center scenario, this experiment explores the impact of different participation and compensation levels of data center demand response. The resulting scenario names are: (1) 5% demand available for curtailment with 750 $/MWh compensation; (2) 5% demand available for curtailment with 500 $/MWh compensation; (3) 5% demand available for curtailment with 250 $/MWh compensation; (4) 15% demand available for curtailment with 750 $/MWh compensation; (5) 15% demand available for curtailment with 500 $/MWh compensation; and (6) 15% demand available for curtailment with 250 $/MWh compensation. The related folder names are: dr_cost_250_drup_0_drdown_5, dr_cost_250_drup_0_drdown_15, dr_cost_500_drup_0_drdown_5, dr_cost_500_drup_0_drdown_15, dr_cost_750_drup_0_drdown_5, and dr_cost_750_drup_0_drdown_15. Combination of delayed generator retirements and demand response through curtailment sensitivity experiment: The impact of combining postponing 100% nuclear and 25% natural gas retirements with 5% demand available for curtailment with 750 $/MWh compensation is simulated. The related folder is named "dr_cost_750_drup_0_drdown_5_nuc_100_gas_25". Please refer to the README file for a detailed description of the dataset including individual files and references.

Artificial Intelligence↗

Sensitivities of time-dependent temperature profile predictions for NSTX with the multi-mode model

The Multi-Mode Model (MMM) for turbulent transport was applied to a large set of well-analyzed discharges from the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) in order to evaluate its sensitivities to a wide range of plasma conditions. MMM calculations were performed for hundreds of milliseconds in each discharge by performing time-dependent predictive simulations with the 1.5D tokamak integrated modeling code TRANSP. A closely related study (Lestz et al 2025 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 67 105029) concluded that MMM predicted electron and ion temperature profiles that were in reasonable agreement with NSTX observations, generally outperforming a different reduced transport model, TGLF. This finding motivates the more thorough investigation of the characteristics of the MMM predictions conducted in this work. The simulations with MMM have electron energy transport dominated by electron temperature gradient modes in the examined discharges with relatively low plasma β (ratio of kinetic plasma pressure to magnetic field pressure) and high collisionality, transitioning to a mixture of different modes for higher β and lower collisionality. The thermal ion diffusivity predicted by MMM is much smaller than the neoclassical contribution, in line with previous experimental analysis of NSTX. Nonetheless, the electron and ion temperature profiles are coupled via collisional energy exchange and thus sensitive to which transport channels are predicted. The time-dependent simulations with MMM are robust to the simulation start time, converging to remarkably similar temperature profiles later during the discharge. MMM typically overpredicts confinement relative to NSTX observations, leading to the prediction of overly steep temperature profiles. Plasmas with spatially broader temperature profiles, higher plasma β, and longer energy confinement times tend to be predicted by MMM with better agreement with the experiment. As a result, these findings provide useful context for understanding the regime-dependent tendencies of MMM in anticipation of self-consistent, time-dependent predictive simulations of NSTX-U discharges with these same modeling tools.

MMM↗

On the use of dielectric elements in axion searches with microwave resonant cavities

This study explores the primary effects of dielectric materials in a resonant cavity-based search for axion dark matter. While dielectrics prove beneficial in numerous cases, their incorporation may lead to less-than-optimal performance, especially for the lowest TM mode. Additionally, the stronger confinement of the electric field inside the dielectrics can exacerbate mode mixings, in particular for higher-order modes. Case studies have been carried out using a combination of analytical solutions and numerical simulations. The findings indicate dielectric cavities employing the TM 010 mode experience a significant reduction in sensitivity when compared to a similar search conducted in a cavity at equivalent frequency using no dielectrics.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Molecular determinants of pH sensing in the proton-activated chloride channel

In response to acidic pH, the widely expressed proton-activated chloride (PAC) channel opens and conducts anions across cellular membranes. By doing so, PAC plays an important role in both cellular physiology (endosome acidification) and diseases associated with tissue acidosis (acid-induced cell death). Despite the available structural information, how proton binding in the extracellular domain (ECD) leads to PAC channel opening remains largely unknown. Here, through comprehensive mutagenesis and electrophysiological studies, we identified several critical titratable residues, including two histidine residues (H130 and H131) and an aspartic acid residue (D269) at the distal end of the ECD, together with the previously characterized H98 at the transmembrane domain–ECD interface, as potential pH sensors for human PAC. Mutations of these residues resulted in significant changes in pH sensitivity. Some combined mutants also exhibited large basal PAC channel activities at neutral pH. By combining molecular dynamics simulations with structural and functional analysis, we further found that the β12 strand at the intersubunit interface and the associated “joint region” connecting the upper and lower ECDs allosterically regulate the proton-dependent PAC activation. Our studies suggest a distinct pH-sensing and gating mechanism of this new family of ion channels sensitive to acidic environment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting Frigid Mixed-Phase Clouds for Pristine Coastal Antarctica

Supercooled water is common in the clouds near coastal Antarctica and occasionally occurs at temperatures at or below -30°C. Yet the ice physics in most regional and global numerical models will glaciate out these clouds. This presents a challenge for the simulation of highly supercooled clouds that were observed at McMurdo, Antarctica during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) project during 2015–2017. The polar optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) with the recently developed two-moment P3 microphysics scheme was used to simulate observed supercooled liquid water cases during March and November 2016. Nudging of the simulations to observed rawinsonde profiles and Antarctic automatic weather station observations provided increased realism and much greater cloud water amounts. Furthermore, sensitivity tests that adjust the ice physics for extremely low ice nucleating particle (INP) concentrations decrease cloud ice and increases the cloud liquid water closer to observed amounts. In these tests, a liquid layer near cloud top is simulated, in agreement with observations. Accurate representation of INP concentrations appears to be critical for the simulation of coastal Antarctic clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A potential model study of the nucleon's charge and mass radius

We study the charge and mass distributions within a nucleon and compute the associated squared radii based on a potential model approach. Different constituent quark configurations such as Δ, Y, and quark-diquark are considered and compared, with model parameters calibrated by experimental measurements of the proton and neutron charge radius. The results suggest that while the charge radius is dictated by quark dynamics, the mass radius is strongly influenced by nonperturbative QCD contributions to a nucleon's mass that are not sensitive to the constituent quarks. As a result, the mass radius could become substantially different from the charge radius. The obtained nucleon mass distributions of different configurations are further used for simulations of the initial conditions in heavy ion collisions. Furthermore, the computed eccentricities ε 2 and ε 3 are found to demonstrate a considerable sensitivity to the input nucleon profiles, especially to the mass radius in the peripheral region as well as for systems with fewer participants.

Gallimore, Daniel [Indiana University, Bloomington↗

Sensitivity analysis of the effect of wind and wake characteristics on wind turbine loads in a small wind farm

Abstract. Wind turbines are designed using a set of simulations to determine the fatigue and ultimate loads, which are typically focused solely on unwaked wind turbine operation. These structural loads can be significantly influenced by the wind inflow conditions. Turbines experience altered inflow conditions when placed in the wake of upstream turbines, which can additionally influence the fatigue and ultimate loads. It is important to understand the impact of uncertainty on the resulting loads of both unwaked and waked turbines. The goal of this work is to assess which wind-inflow-related and wake-related parameters have the greatest influence on fatigue and ultimate loads during normal operation for turbines in a three-turbine wind farm. Twenty-eight wind inflow and wake parameters are screened using an elementary effects sensitivity analysis approach to identify the parameters that lead to the largest variation in the fatigue and ultimate loads of each turbine. This study uses the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 5 MW baseline wind turbine, simulated with OpenFAST and synthetically generated inflow based on the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Kaimal turbulence spectrum with the IEC exponential coherence model using the NREL tool TurbSim. The focus is on sensitivity to individual parameters, though interactions between parameters are considered, and how sensitivity differs between waked and unwaked turbines. The results of this work show that for both waked and unwaked turbines, ambient turbulence in the primary wind direction and shear are the most sensitive parameters for turbine fatigue and ultimate loads. Secondary parameters of importance for all turbines are identified as yaw misalignment, streamwise integral length, and the exponent and streamwise components of the IEC coherence model. The tertiary parameters of importance differ between waked and unwaked turbines. Tertiary effects account for up to 9.0 % of the significant events for waked turbine ultimate loads and include veer, non-streamwise components of the IEC coherence model, Reynolds stresses, wind direction, air density, and several wake calibration parameters. For fatigue loads, tertiary effects account for up to 5.4 % of the significant events and include vertical turbulence standard deviation, lateral and vertical wind integral lengths, non-streamwise components of the IEC coherence model, Reynolds stresses, wind direction, and all wake calibration parameters. This information shows the increased importance of non-streamwise wind components and wake parameters in the fatigue and ultimate load sensitivity of downstream turbines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Debiasing with Diffusion: Probabilistic Reconstruction of Dark Matter Fields from Galaxies with CAMELS

Abstract Galaxies are biased tracers of the underlying cosmic web, which is dominated by dark matter (DM) components that cannot be directly observed. Galaxy formation simulations can be used to study the relationship between DM density fields and galaxy distributions. However, this relationship can be sensitive to assumptions in cosmology and astrophysical processes embedded in galaxy formation models, which remain uncertain in many aspects. In this work, we develop a diffusion generative model to reconstruct DM fields from galaxies. The diffusion model is trained on the CAMELS simulation suite that contains thousands of state-of-the-art galaxy formation simulations with varying cosmological parameters and subgrid astrophysics. We demonstrate that the diffusion model can predict the unbiased posterior distribution of the underlying DM fields from the given stellar density fields while being able to marginalize over uncertainties in cosmological and astrophysical models. Interestingly, the model generalizes to simulation volumes ≈500 times larger than those it was trained on and across different galaxy formation models. The code for reproducing these results can be found athttps://github.com/victoriaono/variational-diffusion-cdm✎.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

All-Electric Nonassociative Learning in Nickel Oxide

Habituation and sensitization represent nonassociative learning mechanisms in both non-neural and neural organisms. They are essential for a range of functions from survival to adaptation in dynamic environments. Design of hardware for neuroinspired computing strives to emulate such features driven by electric bias and can also be incorporated into neural network algorithms. Herein, cellular-like learning in oxygen-deficient NiO x devices is demonstrated. Both habituation learning and sensitization response can be achieved in a single device by simply controlling the magnitude of the electric field. Spontaneous memory relaxations and dynamic redistribution of oxygen vacancies under electric bias enable such learning behavior of NiO x under sequential training. These characteristics in simple device arrays are implemented to learn alphabets as well as demonstrate simulated algorithmic use cases in digit recognition. Transition metal oxides with carefully prepared defect concentrations can be highly sensitive to electronic structure perturbations under moderate electrical stimulus and serve as building blocks for next-generation neuroinspired computing hardware.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗