SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Scenario planning”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 901 records · Page 50

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2020

Adversarial super-resolution of climatological wind and solar data

Accurate and high-resolution data reflecting different climate scenarios are vital for policy makers when deciding on the development of future energy resources, electrical infrastructure, transportation networks, agriculture, and many other societally important systems. However, state-of-the-art long-term global climate simulations are unable to resolve the spatiotemporal characteristics necessary for resource assessment or operational planning. We introduce an adversarial deep learning approach to super resolve wind velocity and solar irradiance outputs from global climate models to scales sufficient for renewable energy resource assessment. Using adversarial training to improve the physical and perceptual performance of our networks, we demonstrate up to a 50 × resolution enhancement of wind and solar data. In validation studies, the inferred fields are robust to input noise, possess the correct small-scale properties of atmospheric turbulent flow and solar irradiance, and retain consistency at large scales with coarse data. An additional advantage of our fully convolutional architecture is that it allows for training on small domains and evaluation on arbitrarily-sized inputs, including global scale. We conclude with a super-resolution study of renewable energy resources based on climate scenario data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Planning Amidst Uncertainty: Identifying Core CCS Infrastructure Robust to Storage Uncertainty

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a critical technology for reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but its large-scale deployment is complicated by uncertainties in geological storage performance. These uncertainties pose significant financial and operational risks, as underperforming storage sites can lead to costly infrastructure modifications, inefficient pipeline routing, and economic shortfalls. To address this challenge, we propose a novel optimization workflow that is based on mixed-integer linear programming and explicitly integrates probabilistic modeling of storage uncertainty into CCS infrastructure design. This workflow generates multiple infrastructure scenarios by sampling storage capacity distributions, optimally solving each scenario using a mixed-integer linear programming model, and aggregating results into a heatmap to identify core infrastructure components that have a low likelihood of underperforming. A risk index parameter is introduced to balance trade-offs between cost, CO2 processing capacity, and risk of underperformance, allowing stakeholders to quantify and mitigate uncertainty in CCS planning. Applying this workflow to a CCS dataset from the US Department of Energy’s Carbon Utilization and Storage Partnership project reveals key insights into infrastructure resilience. Reducing the risk index from 15% to 0% is observed to lead to an 83.7% reduction in CO2 processing capacity and a 77.1% decrease in project profit, quantifying the trade-off between risk tolerance and project performance. Furthermore, our results highlight critical breakpoints, where small adjustments in the risk index produce disproportionate shifts in infrastructure performance, providing actionable guidance for decision-makers. Unlike prior approaches that aimed to cheaply repair underperforming infrastructure, our workflow constructs robust CCS networks from the ground up, ensuring cost-effective infrastructure under storage uncertainty. These findings demonstrate the practical relevance of incorporating uncertainty-aware optimization into CCS planning, equipping decision-makers with a tool to make informed project planning decisions.

Olson, Daniel↗

DOE OSTI2021

A data-driven operational model for traffic at the Dallas Fort Worth International Airport

Airports are on the front line of significant innovations, allowing the movement of more people and goods faster, cheaper, and with greater convenience. As air travel continues to grow, airports will face challenges in responding to increasing passenger vehicle traffic, which leads to lower operational efficiency, poor air quality, and security concerns. This paper evaluates methods for traffic demand forecasting combined with traffic microsimulation, which will allow airport operations staff to accurately predict traffic and congestion. Using two years of detailed data describing individual vehicle arrivals and departures, aircraft movements, and weather at Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) International Airport, we evaluate multiple prediction methods including the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) family of models, traditional machine learning models, and DeepAR, a modern recurrent neural network (RNN). We find that these algorithms are able to capture the diurnal trends in the surface traffic, and all do very well when predicting the next 30 minutes of demand. Longer forecast horizons are moderately effective, demonstrating the challenge of this problem and highlighting promising techniques as well as potential areas for improvement. Traffic demand is not the only factor that contributes to terminal congestion, because temporary changes to the road network, such as a lane closure, can make benign traffic demand highly congested. Combining a demand forecast with a traffic microsimulation framework provides a complete picture of traffic and its consequences. The result is an operational intelligence platform for exploring policy changes, as well as infrastructure expansion and disruption scenarios. To demonstrate the value of this approach, we present results from a case study at DFW Airport assessing the impact of a policy change for vehicle routing in high demand scenarios. This framework can assist airports like DFW as they tackle daily operational challenges, as well as explore the integration of emerging technology and expansion of their services into long term plans.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Ride-hailing and taxi versus walking: Long term forecasts and implications from large-scale behavioral data

Introduction: Although ride-hailing and taxi trips can potentially reduce single-occupant vehicle trips and auto ownership, they can also replace pedestrian trips. Because physical activity is associated with improved health outcomes, the extent to which ride-hailing and taxi travel captures walking's mode share is of interest to policymakers. Methods: Based on large-scale behavioral data from the 2017 U.S. National Household Travel Survey, this paper reports on the development of a full Bayesian logistic regression model for determining the mode split between (1) ride-hailing and taxi and (2) walk while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. The results from the stand-alone model inform two longer-term travel forecasting scenarios: a) higher risk of walk trips converting to ride-hailing and taxi, specifically in the future with high prevalence of automated vehicles, b) higher probability of such trips remaining as walking. Results: The results revealed that some of the important characteristics that increase the likelihood of a traveler using the ride-hailing and taxi mode versus walking include having a longer trip, using a smartphone to access the internet, having an interest in technologies, having a medical condition, and living in a metropolitan area with rail access. Further, the results from the first scenario suggest that an overall increase of up to 2.9% in the ride-hailing and taxi mode share may be expected. The second scenario shows that between 68% and 76% of ride-hailing and taxi trips could be diverted to walking if supportive pedestrian infrastructure were provided in the case study locations. The planning process can be adapted to consider not only congestion, crash, and emissions impacts of such shifts but also the effects of a loss of physical activity. Conclusions: The study findings show how the ride-hailing and taxi mode competes with walking. Further, the findings enable planners to update their regional travel forecasting models; policy makers can thus encourage active travel by prioritizing pedestrian infrastructure investments that may divert ride-hailing and taxi trips to walking. However, equity should be a key consideration to ensure that addressing the competition between these two modal choices does not hinder the provision of pedestrian facilities in communities that depend on walking.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Consistent Timing of Arctic Permafrost Loss Across the CESM1 Large Ensemble

Abstract The Arctic is especially vulnerable to climate change and is warming faster than the global average. Changes in this region pose a heightened threat due to the immense amount of carbon frozen as organic material in the soil. When permafrost thaws, organic material decays and releases as greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, contributing to further warming. A better understanding of the processes that influence permafrost degradation is needed to inform climate adaptation and mitigation planning. This study assesses changes to Arctic permafrost across 35 ensemble member simulations from the Community Earth System Model 1 Large Ensemble Project, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 21st century scenario. Most Arctic near‐surface permafrost is lost by 2100, but timing varies across regions and with soil depth. Internal climate variability, represented by differences between ensemble members, has a constrained influence on degradation timing due to relative consistency of summer temperature increases and insulation by winter snow cover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Weak lensing in DES Y3: redshift distributions, shape catalogue, and mass mapping

The size of galaxy surveys have rapidly escalated with time, growing from thousands of galaxies of the first pioneering surveys to current and future surveys (DES, KiDS, HSC, LSST, Euclid, WFIRST), which map (or plan to map) a few hundreds millions of galaxies. These ambitious programs have the potential to answer many open questions in Cosmology (or, depending on their results, to open new exciting scenarios, involving new physics beyond the standard cosmological model and the standard model of particle physics). In particular, this thesis focuses on the first three years of data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3), which comprises 100 million galaxies observed in 5 different optical bands over 5000 square degrees of the southern hemisphere. DES and the data set used in this thesis are discussed in detail in Chapter 3, which together with Chapter 1 and 2 constitutes Part I of this thesis. The scientifically positive outcome of DES and other photometric galaxy surveys goes h and in h and with a supreme understanding of the data, of the observational systematics affecting the measurements, and of the limits of the theoretical modelling of the observables. One of the main challenge of galaxy photometric surveys like DES is to correctly estimate the distance to the galaxies. Photometric surveys observe the galaxies in a limited number of broad optical bands, and the estimate of their \textit{redshifts} is somewhat uncertain, which constitutes one of the main limiting factor of their cosmological analyses. Part II and its Chapter 4 are devoted to a new auxiliary technique recently developed that allows to infer (or calibrate) redshift distributions exploiting cross-correlation with small reference samples with secure redshifts. The so called ``clustering-redshift'' method is discussed in depth, as well as its role in the overall DES Y3 redshift calibration strategy. Part III and Chapter 5 are devoted to another key aspect of photometric surveys, that enables the stu dy of weak gravitational lensing: the shape catalogue. The official DES Y3 shape catalogue is presented, together with all the systematic tests performed to validate it such that it can be considered science-ready. Last, part IV focuses on how to use weak gravitational lensing and the DES Y3 shape catalogue to create weak lensing mass maps, i.e., maps of the mass distribution of the Universe. Chapter 6 discusses different map making techniques, whereas Chapter 7 presents a simulated cosmological analysis using the high order moments of the mass maps.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Online Prototype Toolset for Predicting and Optimizing P&T Performance (FY23 Status Report)

A new web-based toolset is being developed to support ongoing remediation optimization efforts and implementation of an adaptive site management strategy for the 200 West Area Pump-and-Treat (P&T) system at the Hanford Site. This toolset, comprising the well performance index tool and the well optimization pre-screening tool, will offer a user-friendly interface to predict and optimize the P&T well network’s performance at a preliminary level. Efforts in fiscal year (FY) 2023 focused on three main components: updating the existing deep learning model for predicting P&T performance, designing and developing a prototype of a web-based performance index tool, and initiating the conceptual design of the well optimization pre-screening tool. The well performance index tool is based on a pre-trained deep learning model that allows users to select a target contaminant and well screen length, then visualize the predicted performance of potential new wells across the site. The well optimization pre-screening tool includes two separate modules: the pre-computed scenario viewer, which organizes and visualizes offline optimization simulation results, and the quick analysis module, which provides real-time model prediction using user-specified well locations. In FY24, the plan is to add web-based applications to SOCRATES for both the well performance prediction tool and the optimization prescreening tool, with accompanying user and theory guides. These tools are intended to enable an accessible, easily applied, and transparent approach to remedy planning and decision-making.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1988

The Shuttle Imaging Radar B (SIR-B) experiment report

The primary objective of the SIR-B experiment was to acquire multiple-incidence-angle radar imagery of a variety of Earth's surfaces to better understand the effects of imaging geometry on radar backscatter. A complementary objective was to map extensive regions of particular interest. Under these broad objectives, many specific scientific experiments were defined by the 43 SIR-B Science Team members, including studies in the area of geology, vegetation, radar penetration, oceanography, image analysis, and calibration technique development. Approximately 20 percent of the planned digital data were collected, meeting 40 percent of the scientific objectives. This report is an overview of the SIR-B experiment and includes the science investigations, hardware design, mission scenario, mission operations, events of the actual missions, astronaut participation, data products (including auxiliary data), calibrations, and a summary of the actual coverage. Also included are several image samples.

Cimino, Jo Bea↗

NASA NTRS1992

Development of a tool-set for simultaneous, multi-site observations of astronomical objects

A network of ground and space based telescopes can provide continuous observation of astronomical objects. In a 'Target of Opportunity' scenario triggered by the system, any telescope on the network may request supporting observations. We propose to develop a set of data collection and display tools to support these observations. We plan to demonstrate the usefulness of this tool set for simultaneous multi-site observations of astronomical targets. Possible candidates for the proposed demonstration include the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer, International Ultraviolet Explorer, ALEXIS, and sounding rocket experiments. Ground based observations operated by the University of California, Berkeley; the Jet Propulsion Laboratory; and Fairborn Observatory, Mesa, Arizona will be used to demonstrate the proposed concept. Although the demonstration will involve astronomical investigations, these tools will be applicable to a large number of scientific disciplines. The software tools and systems developed as a result of our work will be made available to the scientific community.

Chakrabarti, Supriya↗

NASA NTRS1993

Development of a tool-set for simultaneous, multi-site observations of astronomical objects

A network of ground and space based telescopes can provide continuous observation of astronomical objects. In a 'Target of Opportunity' scenario triggered by the system, any telescope on the network may request supporting observations. We propose to develop a set of data collection and display tools to support these observations. We plan to demonstrate the usefulness of this toolset for simultaneous multi-site observations of astronomical targets. Possible candidates for the proposed demonstration include the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer, International Ultraviolet Explorer, ALEXIS, and sounding rocket experiments. Ground based observations, operated by the University of California, Berkeley; the Jet Propulsion Laboratory; and Fairborn Observatory, Mesa, Arizona will be used to demonstrate the proposed concept. Although the demonstration will involve astronomical investigations, these tools will be applicable to a large number of scientific disciplines. the software tools and systems developed as a result of our work will be made available to the scientific community.

Chakrabarti, Supriya↗

NASA NTRS2008

Ares-I-X Vehicle Preliminary Range Safety Malfunction Turn Analysis

Ares-I-X is the designation given to the flight test version of the Ares-I rocket (also known as the Crew Launch Vehicle - CLV) being developed by NASA. As part of the preliminary flight plan approval process for the test vehicle, a range safety malfunction turn analysis was performed to support the launch area risk assessment and vehicle destruct criteria development processes. Several vehicle failure scenarios were identified which could cause the vehicle trajectory to deviate from its normal flight path, and the effects of these failures were evaluated with an Ares-I-X 6 degrees-of-freedom (6-DOF) digital simulation, using the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories Version 2 (POST2) simulation framework. The Ares-I-X simulation analysis provides output files containing vehicle state information, which are used by other risk assessment and vehicle debris trajectory simulation tools to determine the risk to personnel and facilities in the vicinity of the launch area at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and to develop the vehicle destruct criteria used by the flight test range safety officer. The simulation analysis approach used for this study is described, including descriptions of the failure modes which were considered and the underlying assumptions and ground rules of the study, and preliminary results are presented, determined by analysis of the trajectory deviation of the failure cases, compared with the expected vehicle trajectory.

Beaty, James R.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Decomposition Algorithm for Global Reachability Analysis on a Time-Varying Graph with an Application to Planetary Exploration

Hot air (Montgolfiere) balloons represent a promising vehicle system for possible future exploration of planets and moons with thick atmospheres such as Venus and Titan. To go to a desired location, this vehicle can primarily use the horizontal wind that varies with altitude, with a small help of its own actuation. A main challenge is how to plan such trajectory in a highly nonlinear and time-varying wind field. This paper poses this trajectory planning as a graph search on the space-time grid and addresses its computational aspects. When capturing various time scales involved in the wind field over the duration of long exploration mission, the size of the graph becomes excessively large. We show that the adjacency matrix of the graph is block-triangular, and by exploiting this structure, we decompose the large planning problem into several smaller subproblems, whose memory requirement stays almost constant as the problem size grows. The approach is demonstrated on a global reachability analysis of a possible Titan mission scenario.

Dijkstra's algorithm↗

NASA NTRS2017

Flight Crew Survey Responses from the Interval Management (IM) Avionics Phase 2 Flight Test

The Interval Management (IM) Avionics Phase 2 flight test used three aircraft over a nineteen day period to operationally evaluate a prototype IM avionics. Quantitative data were collected on aircraft state data and IM spacing algorithm performance, and qualitative data were collected through end-of-scenario and end-of-day flight crew surveys. The majority of the IM operations met the performance goals established for spacing accuracy at the Achieve-by Point and the Planned Termination Point, however there were operations that did not meet goals for a variety of reasons. While the positive spacing accuracy results demonstrate the prototype IM avionics can contribute to the overall air traffic goal, critical issues were also identified that need to be addressed to enhance IM performance. The first category was those issues that impacted the conduct and results of the flight test, but are not part of the IM concept or procedures. These included the design of arrival and approach procedures was not ideal to support speed as the primary control mechanism, the ground-side of the Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration (ATD-1) integrated concept of operations was not part of the flight test, and the high workload to manually enter the information required to conduct an IM operation. The second category was issues associated with the IM spacing algorithm or flight crew procedures. These issues include the high frequency of IM speed changes and reversals (accelerations), a mismatch between the deceleration rate used by the spacing algorithm and the actual aircraft performance, and some spacing error calculations were sensitive to normal operational variations in aircraft airspeed or altitude which triggered additional IM speed changes. Once the issues in these two categories are addressed, the future IM avionics should have considerable promise supporting the goals of improving system throughput and aircraft efficiency.

Baxley, Brian T.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Libration Orbit Eclipse Avoidance Maneuver Study for the James Webb Space Telescope Mission

Mission analysis of libration orbit trajectories at Sun-Earth/Moon L2 typically includes predictions of lunar and Earth eclipses during the mission life-time. The NASA James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) trajectory, by design, avoids these eclipses by pruning its launch window. In an off-nominal scenario where an eclipse is predicted, a maneuver strategy is needed. In this paper, trade studies are examined for JWST that characterize the burn magnitude, location, and epochs of multiple maneuver plans to avoid an eclipse. The results enable analysts to explore the space of feasible maneuver strategies during routine operations.

Maneuver design↗

DOE OSTI2025

SURVEILLANCE DETECTION FOR TRANSPORTATION OPERATIONS PERSONNEL TO PREVENT HIJACKING, THEFT, SABOTAGE, AND MALICIOUS SECURITY EVENTS DURING TRANSPORTING NUCLEAR MATERIAL

The secure transportation of high-consequence materials, including nuclear and radiological assets, is a critical global priority in the face of escalating terrorism, security threats, and violent protests targeting these operations. Effective surveillance detection—the ability to identify, assess, and respond to potential threats across a continuum of scenarios—is paramount in addressing these challenges. This paper outlines a phased, multi-tiered training program designed to strengthen the surveillance detection capabilities of organizations responsible for nuclear material transport. The proposed training program adopts a progressive approach, gradually increasing in technical complexity to provide participants with comprehensive knowledge and tools for implementing robust security strategies. It targets a wide spectrum of stakeholders, including competent authorities, regulators, inspectors, shippers, carriers, law enforcement, and emergency response personnel, equipping them to plan, evaluate, and safeguard nuclear material transportation effectively. Each phase of the program emphasizes distinct elements of the surveillance detection continuum and transport security, focusing on critical topics such as threat identification, adversary task timelines, protective methodologies, and attack mitigation strategies. The training framework is anchored in technical exchanges and scenario-driven courses that reflect real-world complexities and challenges. By addressing the surveillance detection continuum comprehensively—from early threat assessment to active countermeasures—the program reinforces global efforts to secure nuclear assets. It aligns with international security objectives and fosters a strong security culture within participating organizations, ensuring personnel are prepared to counter potential threats and maintain the safe, secure movement of these materials. Ultimately, this initiative aims to enhance preparedness, security, and response capabilities, supporting the global mission to safeguard high-consequence materials against evolving threats.

Zineddin, Dr. Z. [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000848740725)↗

NASA NTRS2021

Applications and Benefits of GNSS for Lunar Exploration

This paper explores the role of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) in NASA's lunar exploration plans. Robust position, navigation and timing (PNT) at the Moon will rely on a variety of measurement sources, each with its own advantages and disadvantages. The best navigation solution will depend on mission type, the phase within each mission, the state of lunar infrastructure development at the time and a host of other considerations. No single method will provide all PNT for all scenarios, but GNSS offers a continuously available, flight-proven source of navigation and timing with unique features that make it a valuable option. As NASA launches a new era of lunar exploration missions in 2021, development of the supporting navigation architecture is underway. This paper describes the role GNSS could or will play in the components of NASA's lunar exploration plans: the Artemis missions designed to return humans to the lunar surface, the Gateway platform orbiting near the Moon that will host astronauts as well as science and technology payloads, and the robotic lander missions administered by the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program. GNSS-based autonomous navigation has the potential to dramatically expand lunar exploration capabilities. Through the use of GNSS and GNSS-like augmentations, navigation performance could be improved while simultaneously reducing operational complexity relative to conventional, ground-based navigation methods. As NASA begins to implement its lunar exploration plans this year and assemble the enabling communications and navigation infrastructure, GNSS will provide an important part of the diverse measurements required for robust lunar PNT.

Benjamin W Ashman↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrating the Mobility Energy Productivity Metric into the CDOT Statewide Model

The Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) metric measures the quality of mobility at a specific location and can be used to evaluate how changes to transportation systems impact the mobility of that location over time, such as through infrastructure investments. The objective of this study is to demonstrate integration of the MEP metric into CDOT's transportation planning process by leveraging data from their statewide travel demand model. We evaluate the MEP metric in 2015 as well as 2030 baselines and projected impacts in 2030 for two different regions in Colorado under multiple scenarios across multiple modes (driving, walking, biking, and transit). It was found that increasing development (increasing population density, jobs, and opportunities) had a significant impact on MEP, independent of any specific alternatives. For drive mode, there was a trade- off of increasing congestion on the road network and increasing job and opportunity access. Impacts to bike, walk, and transit MEP were also demonstrated in both regions. This report shows how MEP can be used as a tool to support evaluating the impacts of various transportation projects across the state. With projections of significant growth across the state of Colorado, access to the increasing opportunities and jobs will be important to understand through the context of energy efficiency. MEP could support future project evaluation and decision-making by enabling the unique and important dimension of energy- efficient accessibility of a transportation system.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Variable renewable energy deployment in low-emission scenarios: The role of technology cost and value

While rapid deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies, namely wind and solar PV, is often projected in 2C pathways generated by integrated assessment models, there is a wide range in projected VRE deployment by mid-century. Such differences could be the result of differences in assumptions about future technology costs and/or differences in model approaches for capturing other aspects of technology competitiveness. Here we introduce a consistent competitiveness metric, profitability-adjusted levelized cost of electricity (or PLCOE), to an integrated assessment model (EPPA) to evaluate the representation of technology competition, including VRE, in low-emission scenarios. We show that representing the value of technology (alongside cost) may significantly impact VRE deployment relative to scenarios without such an adjustment. In addition, we show that varying VRE costs by about 35% in 2050 results in differences in VRE deployment that span much of the range in outcomes (over the same period) observed in likely 2C scenarios assessed by the IPCC, suggesting that both cost and value are key drivers of VRE deployment in such scenarios. Given the central role that VRE technologies play in the electricity mix across most scenarios, we also find that alternative cost assumptions for VRE technologies can lead to changes in electricity prices, the associated demand for electricity, and total final and primary energy consumption. However, the demand for fuels other than electricity is relatively insensitive to VRE assumptions in the 2C scenarios considered here.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗