Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Scenario development”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 901 records · Page 50

Long duration battery sizing, siting, and operation under wildfire risk using progressive hedging

Battery sizing and siting problems are computationally challenging due to the need to make long-term planning decisions that are cognizant of short-term operational decisions. This paper considers sizing, siting, and operating batteries in a power grid to maximize their benefits, including price arbitrage and load shed mitigation, during both normal operations and periods with high wildfire ignition risk. Here we formulate a multi-scenario optimization problem for long duration battery storage while considering the possibility of load shedding during Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) events that de-energize lines to mitigate severe wildfire ignition risk. To enable a computationally scalable solution of this problem with many scenarios of wildfire risk and power injection variability, we develop a customized temporal decomposition method based on a progressive hedging framework. Extending traditional progressive hedging techniques, we consider coupling in both placement variables across all scenarios and state-of-charge variables at temporal boundaries. This enforces consistency across scenarios while enabling parallel computations despite both spatial and temporal coupling. The proposed decomposition facilitates efficient and scalable modeling of a full year of hourly operational decisions to inform the sizing and siting of batteries. With this decomposition, we model a year of hourly operational decisions to inform optimal battery placement for a 240-bus WECC model in under 70 min of wall-clock time.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Human factors issues for interstellar spacecraft

Developments in research on space human factors are reviewed in the context of a self-sustaining interstellar spacecraft based on the notion of traveling space settlements. Assumptions about interstellar travel are set forth addressing costs, mission durations, and the need for multigenerational space colonies. The model of human motivation by Maslow (1970) is examined and directly related to the design of space habitat architecture. Human-factors technology issues encompass the human-machine interface, crew selection and training, and the development of spaceship infrastructure during transtellar flight. A scenario for feasible instellar travel is based on a speed of 0.5c, a timeframe of about 100 yr, and an expandable multigenerational crew of about 100 members. Crew training is identified as a critical human-factors issue requiring the development of perceptual and cognitive aids such as expert systems and virtual reality.

Cohen, Marc M.↗

A Strategy for Low-Mass Dark Matter Searches with Cryogenic Detectors in the SuperCDMS SNOLAB Facility

The SuperCDMS Collaboration is currently building SuperCDMS SNOLAB, a dark matter search focused on nucleon-coupled dark matter in the 1-5 GeV mass range. Looking to the future, the Collaboration has developed a set of experience-based upgrade scenarios, as well as novel directions, to extend the search for dark matter using the SuperCDMS technology in the SNOLAB facility. The experienced-based scenarios are forecasted to probe many square decades of unexplored dark matter parameter space below 5 GeV, covering over 6 decades in mass: 1-100 eV for dark photons and axion-like particles, 1-100 MeV for dark-photon-coupled light dark matter, and 0.05-5 GeV for nucleon-coupled dark matter. They will reach the neutrino fog in the 0.5-5 GeV mass range and test a variety of benchmark models and sharp targets. The novel directions involve greater departures from current SuperCDMS technology but promise even greater reach in the long run, and their development must begin now for them to be available in a timely fashion. The experienced-based upgrade scenarios rely mainly on dramatic improvements in detector performance based on demonstrated scaling laws and reasonable extrapolations of current performance. Importantly, these improvements in detector performance obviate significant reductions in background levels beyond current expectations for the SuperCDMS SNOLAB experiment. Given that the dominant limiting backgrounds for SuperCDMS SNOLAB are cosmogenically created radioisotopes in the detectors, likely amenable only to isotopic purification and an underground detector life-cycle from before crystal growth to detector testing, the potential cost and time savings are enormous and the necessary improvements much easier to prototype.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Assessing the Potential of Stratospheric Balloons for Planetary Science

Recent developments in high altitude balloon platform capabilities, specifically long duration flights in excess of 50 days at over 100,000 ft and precision pointing with performance at the arc sec level or better have raised the question whether this platform can be utilized for high-value planetary science observations. In January of 2012 a workshop was held at NASA Glenn Research Center in Cleveland, Ohio to explore what planetary science can be achieved utilizing such a platform. Over 40 science concepts were identified by the scientists and engineers attending the workshop. Those ideas were captured and then posted to a public website for all interested planetary scientists to review and give their comments. The results of the workshop, and subsequent community review, have demonstrated that this platform appears to have potential for high-value science at very competitive costs. Given these positive results, the assessment process was extended to include 1) examining, in more detail, the requirements for the gondola platform and the mission scenarios 2) identifying technical challenges and 3) developing one or more platform concepts in enough fidelity to enable accurate estimating of development and mission costs. This paper provides a review of the assessment, a summary of the achievable science and the challenges to make that science a reality with this platform.

Kremic, Tibor↗

A More La Niña–Like Response to Radiative Forcing after Flux Adjustment in CESM2

Abstract In response to greenhouse gas forcing, most coupled global climate models project the tropical Pacific SST trend toward an “El Niño–like” state, with a reduced zonal SST gradient and a weakened Walker circulation. However, observations over the last five decades reveal a trend toward a more “La Niña–like” state with a strengthening zonal SST gradient. Recent research indicates that the identified trend differences are unlikely to be entirely due to internal variability and probably result, at least in part, from systematic model biases. In this study, Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), is used to explore how mean-state biases within the model may influence its forced response to radiative forcing in the tropical Pacific. The results show that using flux adjustment to reduce the mean-state bias in CESM2 over the tropical regions results in a more La Niña–like trend pattern in the tropical Pacific, with a strengthening of the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient and a relatively enhanced Walker circulation, as hypothesized to occur if the ocean thermostat mechanism is stronger than the atmospheric mechanisms which by themselves would weaken the Walker circulation. We also find that the historical strengthening of the tropical Pacific zonal gradient is transient but persists into the near term in a high-emissions future warming scenario. These results suggest the potential of flux adjustment as a method for developing alternative projections that represent a wider range of possible future tropical Pacific warming scenarios, especially for a better understanding of regional patterns of climate risk in the near term.

Zhuo, Jing-Yi [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, C↗

Propulsion System Development for the Iodine Satellite (iSAT) Demonstration Mission

The development and testing of a 200-W iodine-fed Hall thruster propulsion system that will be flown on a 12-U CubeSat is described. The switch in propellant from more traditional xenon gas to solid iodine yields the advantage of high density, low pressure propellant storage but introduces new requirements that must be addressed in the design and operation of the propulsion system. The thruster materials have been modified from a previously-flown xenon Hall thruster to make it compatible with iodine vapor. The cathode incorporated into this design additionally requires little or no heating to initiate the discharge, reducing the power needed to start the thruster. The feed system produces iodine vapor in the propellant reservoir through sublimation and then controls the flow to the anode and cathode of the thruster using a pair of proportional flow control valves. The propellant feeding process is controlled by the power processing unit, with feedback control on the anode flow rate provided through a measure of the thruster discharge current. Thermal modeling indicates that it may be difficult to sufficiently heat the iodine if it loses contact with the propellant reservoir walls, serving to motivate future testing of that scenario to verify the modeling result and develop potential mitigation strategies. Preliminary, short-duration materials testing has thus-far indicated that several materials may be acceptable for prolonged contact with iodine vapor, motivating longer-duration testing. A propellant loading procedure is presented that aims to minimize the contaminants in the feed system and propellant reservoir. Finally, an 80-hour duration test being performed to gain experience operating the thruster over long durations and multiple restarts is discussed.

Polzin, Kurt A.↗

SPAROW: Stochastic Programming and Related Optimization Workflows

SAND2026-16703O SPAROW: Stochastic Programming and Related Optimization Workflows is a Python library tool that facilitates the development and solution of stochastic programming problems. It provides a user-friendly class structure for defining stochastic programs through scenario-based representations of uncertainties. SPAROW incorporates multiple optimization strategies, including integer programming with all scenarios, progressive hedging, Benders decomposition, and Snoglode, a novel technique developed by Carnegie Mellon University. It also features interfaces to external solvers and functions that are commonly used in analysis workflows, making it applicable to a wide range of scientific and engineering design challenges, particularly in power grid planning. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Hart, William [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albu↗

Radiation Accidents and Malicious Events – Scenarios and Scope of the Work of ICRP Task Group 120

The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) Task Group 120 (TG120) is developing ICRP recommendations for radiological protection for a wide range of radiation accidents and malicious events, complementing those given in ICRP Publication 146 (2020) for large nuclear accidents. The scope includes accidents involving criticalities, operating faults, and fires and explosions in nuclear facilities, inadvertent damage to sealed radiation sources, as well as malicious events, such as sabotage of nuclear facilities or materials, use of radiological dispersal devices, the contamination of food and drinking water supplies, and the deployment of nuclear weapons. A template has been designed to collate relevant information on a wide range of case studies and hypothetical malicious scenarios to ensure that the recommendations developed are broadly applicable and comprehensive. For all scenarios, a graded approach to protection is being taken, accepting that specific guidance may be required for some distinctive aspects, for example, protection during times of armed conflict. This paper provides an overview of the scenarios and scope of the work of TG120, including some of the radiological and non-radiological impacts of radiation emergencies, along the response and recovery timeline.

ICRP↗

Uncertainty Analyses of Molten Salt Property Measurements

Thermophysical and thermochemical property values of molten salts and associated uncertainties are used by reactor developers to evaluate reactor performance and model accident scenarios. These activities support fuel qualification objectives by demonstrating that fundamental safety functions (e.g., limit the release of radioactive materials, remove heat from the reactor, and control reactivity) can be performed effectively in a variety of conditions over the operating life of the reactor. Fuel qualification activities are still in the development phase due to a lack of reliable property data for salt mixtures being considered for use in molten salt reactors (MSR).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

The Role of Lunar Development in Human Exploration of the Solar System

Human exploration of the solar system can be said to have begun with the Apollo landings on the Moon. The Apollo Project was publicly funded with the narrow technical objective of landing human beings on the Moon. The transportation and life support systems were specialized technical designs, developed in a project management environment tailored to that objective. Most scenarios for future human exploration assume a similar long-term commitment of public funds to a narrowly focused project managed by a large, monolithic organization. Advocates of human exploration of space have not yet been successful in generating the political momentum required to initiate such a project to go to the Moon or to Mars. Alternative scenarios of exploration may relax some or all of the parameters of organizational complexity, great expense, narrow technical focus, required public funding, and control by a single organization. Development of the Moon using private investment is quite possibly a necessary condition for alternative scenarios to succeed.

Mendell, Wendell W.↗

Viability and Financial Evaluation of Agrivoltaic Systems in Concord Grape Vineyards

Agrivoltaic systems, combining agriculture and solar photovoltaics (PV), present a forward- looking solution to global challenges in food security and the energy crisis. It can actualize co- located power generation and crop production, effectively mitigating land use conflicts between the solar industry and agriculture [1]. Presently, agrivoltaic research primarily focuses on conventional farmland. To promote the development of agrivoltaics, it’s essential to explore and study diverse application scenarios. Concord grape vineyards in New York consistently experience financial losses, prompting growers to seek additional revenue streams to preserve Concord grape industries [2]. This study presents the pioneering proposal for integrating solar PV into Concord vineyards. Through viability and financial assessment, this agrivoltaic system demonstrates the potential to alleviate grower losses and boost solar developers’ income, establishing a mutually beneficial scenario. Furthermore, it provides a conceptual approach for other vineyards facing similar challenges to mitigate losses and sustain local grape culture.

Williams, Henry J↗

A Fundamentally New Coupled Approach to Contact Mechanics via the Dirichlet‐Neumann Schwarz Alternating Method

Contact phenomena are crucial for understanding the behavior of mechanical systems. However, existing computational approaches for simulating mechanical contact often face numerical challenges, such as inaccurate physical predictions, energy conservation errors, and unwanted oscillations. Here, we introduce an alternative technique for simulating dynamic contact based on the non‐overlapping Schwarz alternating method, originally developed for domain decomposition. In multibody contact scenarios, this method treats each body as a separate, non‐overlapping domain and prevents interpenetration using an alternating Dirichlet–Neumann iterative process. This approach has a strong theoretical foundation, eliminates the need for contact constraints, and offers flexibility, making it ideal for multiscale and multiphysics applications. We conducted a numerical comparison between the Schwarz method and traditional methods, such as the Lagrange multiplier and penalty methods, focusing on a benchmark impact problem. Our results indicate that the Schwarz alternating method outperforms traditional methods in several key areas: it provides more accurate predictions for various measurable quantities and demonstrates exceptional energy conservation capabilities. To address unwanted oscillations in contact velocities and forces, we explored various algorithms and stabilization techniques, ultimately opting for the naïve‐stabilized Newmark scheme for its simplicity and effectiveness. Additionally, we validated the efficiency of the Schwarz method in a three‐dimensional impact problem, highlighting its inherent capacity to accommodate different mesh topologies, time‐integration schemes, and time steps for each interacting body.

Schwarz alternating method↗

Emergence of robust anthropogenic increase of heat stress-related variables projected from CORDEX-CORE climate simulations

The information of when and where region-specific patterns in both mean and extreme temperatures leading to heat stress will emerge from the present-day climate variability is important to plan adaptation options, but to date studies on this issue still remain limited and fragmented. Here, we estimate the time of emergence (TOE) of temperature and wet-bulb temperature (Tw), a better indication of heat stress, using fine-scale, long-term regional climate model projections under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios across six different domains. Differently from previous studies, the TOE is determined using three methods applied on impact-relevant variables: two different signal-to-noise frameworks based on summer mean temperature and Tw and a statistical test to identify significant differences in daily extreme distributions. The TOE response to RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 with respect to the end of 20th century variability differs significantly regardless of which TOE metric is applied. For summer mean temperature, the land fraction reaching TOE is expected to exceed 90% by the 2050s under the RCP8.5, whereas the increase rate of land exposure to TOE tends to stagnate over time under the RCP2.6 so that more than 40% of land will not experience TOE by the end of the 21st century. Compared to temperature, the TOE of Tw is reached earlier in most of the wet tropics but is delayed in hot and dry regions because of the nonlinear response of Tw to humidity. For both temperature and Tw, the TOE appears earlier in regions with low baseline variability, such as in the tropics. Despite the uncertainties arising from the choice of TOE metrics, the vast majority of regions in Africa and southeast Asia experience TOE in the early 21st century under both the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, which stresses the urgent need for developing adequate adaptation strategies in these regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Oxidation behaviors of matrix-grade graphite during water vapor ingress accidents for high temperature gas-cooled reactors

Water ingress into cores of high temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) can cause serious safety problems in graphitic components, especially for matrix graphite, which is more vulnerable than nuclear graphite. Here in this study, oxidation behaviors of a matrix-grade graphite, ARB-B1, were investigated under simulated water ingress accidental conditions. The oxidation tests were conducted in water vapor/helium mixed atmospheres at elevated temperatures up to 1200 °C. Oxidation rates and activation energy were evaluated by mass loss measurements. The activation energy was 121.5 kJ/mol in the considered temperature range, indicating only one oxidation regime-in-pore diffusion assisted by cracks. The cracks originated from the fabrication process, acting as penetration paths for the oxidant, played an important role in the oxidation behaviors. Ungraphitized binder oxidation occurred at all temperatures, while apparent oxidation of filler particles started from 1100 °C. Moreover, oxidation effects on compressive properties and hardness of the matrix graphite were discussed in terms of oxidized microstructures. This first detailed study on matrix graphite oxidation in water vapor provides important kinetics knowledge and microstructural and mechanical data for accidental scenarios of HTGRs as well as for development of new matrix graphite materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Observation and Modeling of Dynamic Fracture Behaviors of Battery Cell Under Impact Loading Using Enhanced Representative Volume Element Concept

The burgeoning electric automobile industry has increased interest in battery safety. Battery cells experience significant mechanical stress during operation, including the impact of accidents and vibrations from driving. The potential for thermal runaway reactions in battery cells raises safety concerns. Although numerous researchers have defined the dynamic behavior of battery cells and proposed numerical models to describe it, few studies have focused on the high-strain rate mechanical impact phase correlated with the onset of fracture. In this study, we describe the dynamic behavior of pouch battery cells and propose a modeling method to study their mechanical failure under impact situations. Impact tests are conducted at various velocities and heights. To overcome numerical issues commonly encountered under rapid deformation scenarios, a new finite element model is developed based on the representative volume element model. The proposed approach efficiently simulates continuous crack propagation and brittleness behavior during impact by permitting the individual behavior of the cell components. Therefore, engineers can reliably design safer electric vehicle battery cells by measuring the properties of the cell components.

ENERGY STORAGE↗

Consequence analyses of sabotage-induced radiological releases in sodium-cooled fast microreactors

Analysis of three sodium-cooled fast microreactors (SFMs) with thermal powers of 10, 30, and 50 MWt showed that smaller reactors result in lower radiological consequences during a postulated sabotage-induced event because of their reduced core inventory. All SFMs used U-10Zr metal fuel enriched to 15 wt% high-assay low-enriched uranium and operated until their respective effective multiplication factor (k eff ) reduced to less than 1 or until the end of their operational lifespan. Sabotage scenarios were simulated at this point, when the fuel inventory within the core contains the highest-level of radioactivity. Radionuclide core inventories were calculated using the SCALE code at shutdown and 3 days post-shutdown. Dose consequence analyses were performed for three sabotage scenarios using the RASCAL tool. As microreactor developers plan for minimal on-site or complete off-site emergency response, it remains essential to evaluate their physical protection needs and potential hazards, including assessing postulated sabotage-induced events that could become more relevant. SFM licensees should identify a credible worst-case, major accident, estimate release source terms, and perform dose consequence analyses to evaluate site-specific physical protection measures. In conclusion, this recommendation supports a risk-informed, performance-based approach, aligning with applicable regulatory requirements, i.e., 10 CFR Parts 100 and 53 rulemaking in the United States.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Composite binder, processing, and particle size effects on mechanical properties of non-hazardous high explosive surrogates

Plastic-bonded explosives (PBX) are polymer matrix composites that are highly loaded with micron-scale explosive crystals. The thermal and mechanical properties of these materials must be well-understood so that appropriate engineering models can be developed, but testing such properties under many scenarios can be hazardous and expensive. A non-hazardous PBX surrogate (“mock”) may be used in place of a PBX in many experiments if the thermomechanical properties are well-matched. Our previous research has shown that 5-iodo-2'-deoxyuridine (IDOX) is a promising crystalline filler material for the explosive cyclotetramethylene-tetranitramine (HMX). In this study, we investigate how the binder composition, variations in the IDOX particle size distribution, and pressing temperature affect the compressive strength and elastic modulus. We observe that while the binder system used in the composite dominates the mechanical response, the particle size distribution and pressing conditions do have a measurable effect on the material compliance and strength.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Bayesian Optimized Deep Ensemble for Uncertainty Quantification of Deep Neural Networks: a System Safety Case Study on Sodium Fast Reactor Thermal Stratification Modeling

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are increasingly important to scientific computing and engineering system simulations. Accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) for DNNs is critical in safety-sensitive engineering domains. Traditional Deep Ensemble (DE) methods, while easy to implement, frequently suffer from poorly calibrated uncertainty estimates and limited predictive accuracy due to reliance on fixed architectures with varied weight initializations. To address these issues, we introduce a workflow that combines Bayesian Optimization (BO) and DE. The workflow is modular, scalable, and integrates parallel BO initialized with Sobol sequences to individually optimize the hyperparameters of each ensemble member. This method enhances ensemble diversity, improves predictive accuracy, and provides reliable uncertainty estimates. We evaluate the proposed BODE approach in a sodium fast reactor thermal stratification modeling case study, where we used a densely connected convolutional neural network to predict turbulent viscosity during the reactor transient with consideration of data noise. We benchmark its performance against several optimization approaches, including baseline deep ensemble, evolutionary algorithm-optimized ensemble, ensemble formed via random search combined with greedy selection, and a BO ensemble using random initialization. Here, our results demonstrate superior performance of the developed BODE approach. In noise-free scenarios, BODE notably reduces incorrect aleatoric uncertainty and significantly enhances predictive accuracy. Under conditions of 5% and 10% Gaussian noise, BODE adaptively quantifies uncertainty proportional to data noise, achieving up to an 80% reduction in root mean square error compared to baseline methods and producing well-calibrated prediction intervals.

Bayesian optimization↗