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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2004

The NASA Aircraft VOrtex Spacing System (AVOSS): Concept Demonstration Results and Future Direction

Since the late 1990s the national airspace system has been recognized as approaching a capacity crisis. In the light of this condition, industry, government, user organizations, and educational institutions have been working on procedural and technological solutions to the problem. One aspect of system operations that holds potential for improvement is the separation criteria applied to aircraft for wake vortex avoidance. These criteria, applied when operations are conducted under instrument flight rules (IFR), were designed to represent safe spacing under weather conditions conducive to the longest wake hazards. It is well understood that wake behavior is dependent on meteorological conditions as well as the physical parameters of the generating aircraft. Under many ambient conditions, such as moderate crosswinds or turbulence, wake hazard durations are substantially reduced. To realize this reduction NASA has developed a proof-of-concept Aircraft VOrtex Spacing System (AVOSS). Successfully demonstrated in a realtime field demonstration during July 2000 at the Dallas Ft. Worth International Airport (DFW), AVOSS is a novel integration of weather sensors, wake sensors, and analytical wake prediction algorithms. AVOSS provides dynamic wake separation criteria that are a function of the ambient weather conditions for a particular airport, and the predicted wake behavior under those conditions. Wake sensing subsystems provide safety checks and validation for the predictions. The AVOSS was demonstrated in shadow mode; no actual spacing changes were applied to aircraft. This paper briefly reviews the system architecture and operation, reports the latest performance results from the DFW deployment, and describes the future direction of the project.

Rutishauser, David K.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Encryption for Remote Control via Internet or Intranet

A data-communication protocol has been devised to enable secure, reliable remote control of processes and equipment via a collision-based network, while using minimal bandwidth and computation. The network could be the Internet or an intranet. Control is made secure by use of both a password and a dynamic key, which is sent transparently to a remote user by the controlled computer (that is, the computer, located at the site of the equipment or process to be controlled, that exerts direct control over the process). The protocol functions in the presence of network latency, overcomes errors caused by missed dynamic keys, and defeats attempts by unauthorized remote users to gain control. The protocol is not suitable for real-time control, but is well suited for applications in which control latencies up to about 0.5 second are acceptable. The encryption scheme involves the use of both a dynamic and a private key, without any additional overhead that would degrade performance. The dynamic key is embedded in the equipment- or process-monitor data packets sent out by the controlled computer: in other words, the dynamic key is a subset of the data in each such data packet. The controlled computer maintains a history of the last 3 to 5 data packets for use in decrypting incoming control commands. In addition, the controlled computer records a private key (password) that is given to the remote computer. The encrypted incoming command is permuted by both the dynamic and private key. A person who records the command data in a given packet for hostile purposes cannot use that packet after the public key expires (typically within 3 seconds). Even a person in possession of an unauthorized copy of the command/remote-display software cannot use that software in the absence of the password. The use of a dynamic key embedded in the outgoing data makes the central-processing unit overhead very small. The use of a National Instruments DataSocket(TradeMark) (or equivalent) protocol or the User Datagram Protocol makes it possible to obtain reasonably short response times: Typical response times in event-driven control, using packets sized .300 bytes, are <0.2 second for commands issued from locations anywhere on Earth. The protocol requires that control commands represent absolute values of controlled parameters (e.g., a specified temperature), as distinguished from changes in values of controlled parameters (e.g., a specified increment of temperature). Each command is issued three or more times to ensure delivery in crowded networks. The use of absolute-value commands prevents additional (redundant) commands from causing trouble. Because a remote controlling computer receives "talkback" in the form of data packets from the controlled computer, typically within a time interval < or =1 s, the controlling computer can re-issue a command if network failure has occurred. The controlled computer, the process or equipment that it controls, and any human operator(s) at the site of the controlled equipment or process should be equipped with safety measures to prevent damage to equipment or injury to humans. These features could be a combination of software, external hardware, and intervention by the human operator(s). The protocol is not fail-safe, but by adopting these safety measures as part of the protocol, one makes the protocol a robust means of controlling remote processes and equipment by use of typical office computers via intranets and/or the Internet.

Lineberger, Lewis↗
DOE OSTI2024

Connected Traffic Signal Coordination Optimization Framework through Network-Wide Adaptive Linear Quadratic Regulator–Based Control Strategy

Traffic congestion in metropolitan areas causes several significant challenges, such as longer travel times, decreased productivity, increased fuel consumption and vehicle emissions, and even severe injuries during crashes. Traffic signal control is a management approach to reduce traffic congestion and allocate the appropriate right of way for safety and mobility efficiency, both in temporal and spatial domains. Here, this study proposes a network-wide adaptive signal control coordination optimization framework based on the linear quadratic regulator algorithm. The traffic flow conditions driven by signal control inputs are formulated based on their network-wide state-space representation. After modeling traffic control regulation constraints, an adaptive linear quadratic regulator algorithm is designed to maximize the network-wide total throughput under the current conditions. Optimal signal control split time durations for multiple intersections in the network are derived by solving the algebraic Riccati equation. Furthermore, the recursive least square parameter estimation method is employed to quantify dynamic traffic condition changes. To verify the effectiveness of this proposed signal control framework, both simulation and real-world experimental tests are conducted for multiple intersections in downtown Chattanooga, Tennessee, United States. In preparation for real-world experimental tests, pipelines for real-time data processing implementation and historical traffic flow data analysis are conducted. The test results demonstrate that the proposed control framework achieves a decrease in travel time by up to 19.4%, total time spent (TTS) by up to 11.9%, and relative queue balance (RQB) by up to 15.6%. The research findings indicate that the proposed signal control framework can be generalized to handle large scale signal control optimization network-wide.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1988

Scientific support for an orbiter middeck experiment on solid surface combustion

The objective is to determine the mechanism of gas-phase flame spread over solid fuel surfaces in the absence of any buoyancy or externally imposed gas-phase flow. Such understanding can be used to improve the fire safety aspects of space travel by providing information that will allow judicious selections of spacecraft materials and environments to be made. The planned experiment consists of measuring the flame spread rate over thermally thin and thermally thick fuels in a closed container in the low-gravity environment of the Space Shuttle. Measurements consist of flame spread rate and shape obtained from two views of the process as recorded on movie film and surface and gas-phase temperatures obtained from fine-wire thermocouples. The temperature measurements along with appropriate modeling provide information about the gas-to-solid heat flux. Environmental parameters to be varied are the oxygen concentration and pressure.

Altenkirch, Robert A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Environmental Control and Life Support Technology Development for Exploration: 2020 to 2021 Overview

This paper provides an overview of NASA supported activities developing Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLSS) technologies in the following capability areas: life support, environmental monitoring, fire safety, and logistics. NASA has been refining technology needs for deep space missions including Gateway, lunar surface, Mars transit, and Mars surface missions. Validating technologies in relevant environments, both in low earth orbit (LEO) and ground tests is critical in understanding technology performance and long duration performance. On-orbit and ground tests inform NASA’s technology decisions to fill exploration gaps. NASA has multiple technology projects across the technology readiness spectrum with potential to fill or partially fill exploration gaps. For each capability area, this paper will describe select capability gaps, NASA technology project maturation over the past year, and key performance parameters (KPPs). KPPs are evolving but they still provide a useful measure in communicating progress and identifying development needs to fill exploration gaps. The intent is to provide a very high-level overview describing the projects that are supporting gap closure and provide references to additional technical details, progress, and KPPs.

James Lee Broyan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Local practically safe extremum seeking with assignable rate of attractivity to the safe set

We present Assignably Safe Extremum Seeking (ASfES), an algorithm designed to minimize a measured, static objective function while maintaining a measured, static metric of safety (a control barrier function or CBF) to be positive in a practical sense. We ensure that for trajectories with safe initial conditions, the violation of safety can be made arbitrarily small through appropriately chosen design constants. We also guarantee an assignable “attractivity” rate: from unsafe initial conditions, the trajectories approach the safe set, in the sense of the measured CBF, at a rate no slower than a user-assigned rate. Similarly, from safe initial conditions, the trajectories approach the unsafe set, in the sense of the CBF, no faster than the assigned attractivity rate. The feature of assignable attractivity is not present in the semiglobal version of safe extremum seeking, where the semiglobality of convergence is achieved by slowing the adaptation. We also demonstrate local convergence of the parameter to a neighborhood of the minimum of a quadratic objective function constrained to the safe set with a linear CBF. The ASfES algorithm and analysis are multivariable, but we also extend the algorithm to a Newton-Based ASfES scheme which we show is only useful in the scalar case. The proven properties of the designs are illustrated through simulation examples.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accuracy of kinetic equilibrium reconstruction of NSTX and NSTX-U plasmas and its impact on the transport and stability analysis

An accurate magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equilibrium reconstruction is an essential starting point for stability and transport plasma analysis. Herein this work describes an approach for obtaining kinetic equilibrium reconstructions using the OMFIT framework, which has been applied for the first time to spherical tokamak data from NSTX and NSTX-U. The EFIT equilibrium solver is integrated with experimental data analysis procedures and subsequent TRANSP transport simulations to enhance the accuracy of the reconstruction, in particular, at the edge region, by adding constraints on the total pressure and current density profiles, based on the transport code solution. The accuracy of the equilibrium reconstruction depends on the uncertainty and number of constraints, as well as the choice of basis functions to represent the pressure and current density profiles. Improved fidelity of the equilibrium reconstruction is demonstrated by reducing the variability of the magnetic axis and boundary locations from several centimeters, for reconstructions based on magnetic and experimental pressure constraints, to only several millimeters, for kinetic reconstructions based on transport code constraints, when different representations of basis functions were tested. The variability of the safety factor on axis was reduced ten times in the same sensitivity study. The accuracy of the equilibrium reconstruction and subsequent mapping of the experimental kinetic profile data have a significant impact on the trapped gyro Landau fluid and linear CGYRO turbulence simulations, which predict different spectra of unstable modes and turbulent fluxes for cases with different numbers of constraints in the equilibrium reconstruction. Conversely, the stability analysis performed using the GATO code shows plasmas that are stable to n = 1 MHD modes in both equilibria using magnetic and experimental pressure constraints as well as the transport code constrained equilibrium. However, a scan of parameters away from these conditions shows considerable deviation in the threshold of unstable modes between these reconstructions. Therefore, for reliable plasma analysis and use in turbulence and stability calculations, a high-fidelity equilibrium reconstruction with accurate kinetic constraints based on transport code solutions is necessary.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1994

Effects of historical and predictive information on ability of transport pilot to predict an alert

In the aviation community, the early detection of the development of a possible subsystem problem during a flight is potentially useful for increasing the safety of the flight. Commercial airlines are currently using twin-engine aircraft for extended transport operations over water, and the early detection of a possible problem might increase the flight crew's options for safely landing the aircraft. One method for decreasing the severity of a developing problem is to predict the behavior of the problem so that appropriate corrective actions can be taken. To investigate the pilots' ability to predict long-term events, a computer workstation experiment was conducted in which 18 airline pilots predicted the alert time (the time to an alert) using 3 different dial displays and 3 different parameter behavior complexity levels. The three dial displays were as follows: standard (resembling current aircraft round dial presentations); history (indicating the current value plus the value of the parameter 5 sec in the past); and predictive (indicating the current value plus the value of the parameter 5 sec into the future). The time profiles describing the behavior of the parameter consisted of constant rate-of-change profiles, decelerating profiles, and accelerating-then-decelerating profiles. Although the pilots indicated that they preferred the near term predictive dial, the objective data did not support its use. The objective data did show that the time profiles had the most significant effect on performance in estimating the time to an alert.

Trujillo, Anna C.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Development of Wireless Subsurface Microsensors for Health Monitoring of Thermal Protection Systems

Low cost access to space is a primary goal for both NASA and the U.S. aerospace industry. Integrated subsystem health diagnostics is an area where major improvements have been identified for potential implementation into the design of new reusable launch vehicles (RLVS) in order to reduce life cycle costs, increase safety margins and improve mission reliability. A number of efforts are underway to use existing and emerging technologies to establish new methods for vehicle health monitoring on operational vehicles as well as X-vehicles. This paper summarizes a joint effort between several NASA centers and industry partners to develop rapid wireless diagnostic tools for failure management and long-term TPS performance monitoring of thermal protection systems (TPS) on future RLVS. An embedded wireless microsensor suite is being designed to allow rapid subsurface TPS health monitoring and damage assessment. This sensor suite will consist of both passive overlimit sensors and sensors for continuous parameter monitoring in flight. The on-board diagnostic system can be used to radio in maintenance requirements before landing and the data could also be used to assist in design validation for X-vehicles. For a 3rd generation vehicle, wireless diagnostics should be at a stage of technical development that will allow use for intelligent feedback systems for guidance and navigation control applications and can also serve as feedback for TPS that can intelligently adapt to its environment.

Pallix, Joan↗
NASA NTRS2004

Towards a Three-Dimensional Near-Real Time Cloud Product for Aviation Safety and Weather Diagnoses

Satellite data have long been used for determining the extent of cloud cover and for estimating the properties at the cloud tops. The derived properties can also be used to estimate aircraft icing potential to improve the safety of air traffic in the region. Currently, cloud properties and icing potential are derived in near-real time over the United States of America (USA) from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite GOES) imagers at 75 W and 135 W. Traditionally, the results have been given in two dimensions because of the lack of knowledge about the vertical extent of clouds and the occurrence of overlapping clouds. Aircraft fly in a three-dimensional space and require vertical as well as horizontal information about clouds, their intensity, and their potential for icing. To improve the vertical component of the derived cloud and icing parameters, this paper explores various methods and datasets for filling in the three-dimensional space over the USA with cloud water.

Minnis, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS2011

Musculoskeletal Modeling Component of the NASA Digital Astronaut Project

The NASA Digital Astronaut Project s (DAP) objective is to provide computational tools that support research of the physiological response to low gravity environments and analyses of how changes cause health and safety risks to the astronauts and to the success of the mission. The spaceflight risk associated with muscle atrophy is impaired performance due to reduced muscle mass, strength and endurance. Risks of early onset of osteoporosis and bone fracture are among the spaceflight risks associated with loss of bone mineral density. METHODS: Tools under development include a neuromuscular model, a biomechanical model and a bone remodeling model. The neuromuscular model will include models of neuromuscular drive, muscle atrophy, fiber morphology and metabolic processes as a function of time in space. Human movement will be modeled with the biomechanical model, using muscle and bone model parameters at various states. The bone remodeling model will allow analysis of bone turnover, loss and adaptation. A comprehensive trade study was completed to identify the current state of the art in musculoskeletal modeling. The DAP musculoskeletal models will be developed using a combination of existing commercial software and academic research codes identified in the study, which will be modified for use in human spaceflight research. These individual models are highly dependent upon each other and will be integrated together once they reach sufficient levels of maturity. ANALYSES: The analyses performed with these models will include comparison of different countermeasure exercises for optimizing effectiveness and comparison of task requirements and the state of strength and endurance of a crew member at a particular time in a mission. DISCUSSION: The DAP musculoskeletal model has the potential to complement research conducted on spaceflight induced changes to the musculoskeletal system. It can help with hypothesis formation, identification of causative mechanisms and supplementing small data samples.

Lewandowski, B. E.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Study of industry requirements that can be fulfilled by combustion experimentation aboard space station

The purpose of this study is to define the requirements of commercially motivated microgravity combustion experiments and the optimal way for space station to accommodate these requirements. Representatives of commercial organizations, universities and government agencies were contacted. Interest in and needs for microgravity combustion studies are identified for commercial/industrial groups involved in fire safety with terrestrial applications, fire safety with space applications, propulsion and power, industrial burners, or pollution control. From these interests and needs experiments involving: (1) no flow with solid or liquid fuels; (2) homogeneous mixtures of fuel and air; (3) low flow with solid or liquid fuels; (4) low flow with gaseous fuel; (5) high pressure combustion; and (6) special burner systems are described and space station resource requirements for each type of experiment provided. Critical technologies involving the creation of a laboratory environment and methods for combining experimental needs into one experiment in order to obtain effective use of space station are discussed. Diagnostic techniques for monitoring combustion process parameters are identified.

Priem, Richard J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Robust Kalman filter design for predictive wind shear detection

Severe, low-altitude wind shear is a threat to aviation safety. Airborne sensors under development measure the radial component of wind along a line directly in front of an aircraft. In this paper, optimal estimation theory is used to define a detection algorithm to warn of hazardous wind shear from these sensors. To achieve robustness, a wind shear detection algorithm must distinguish threatening wind shear from less hazardous gustiness, despite variations in wind shear structure. This paper presents statistical analysis methods to refine wind shear detection algorithm robustness. Computational methods predict the ability to warn of severe wind shear and avoid false warning. Comparative capability of the detection algorithm as a function of its design parameters is determined, identifying designs that provide robust detection of severe wind shear.

Stratton, Alexander D.↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Markov Decision Process Framework for Optimal Airport Reconfiguration

The airport runway configuration is defined as a combination set of runways for arrivals and departures used at a point during operation of the airport. An optimal configuration of these runways depends on a number of factors, including traffic demand, wind magnitude and direction, other adverse weather conditions, and noise restrictions, among others. Based on the current state of these factors and predictions of traffic demand and weather conditions, runway configuration changes are made and coordinated between tower controller, other air traffic control facilities, pilots, and ground personnel. Reconfigurations can be quite disruptive to airport operations; minimizing their frequency and scheduling them well in advance is essential for mitigating some of the added workload for controllers and pilots. Unfortunately, deciding on an appropriate time to change is challenging for human decision makers. Not only do multiple factors need to be evaluated, but the uncertainty in their forecasts must also be considered. Previous optimization methods, such as mixed linear integer programming, have been proposed. Although these methods can reason over a large set of variables, they do not systematically handle the uncertainty associated with weather movement, traffic demands, and other variables. In this work, we introduce a Markov Decision Process (MDP)-based decision making framework which can reason effectively over the inherent uncertainties and make optimal decisions on if/when to change the airport configuration. In a prototype implementation, we present a single runway with three aircraft and utilize knowledge of the forecasted wind speed and direction to determine whether to keep or change the current runway configuration. Our aim through this work is to present a framework for airport reconfiguration which can be scalable to additional aircraft, multiple runways, and various input parameters. This technique will optimize the airport reconfiguration procedure by providing a proactive approach, optimizing not just at the next optimal opportunity for a reconfiguration based on varying atmospheric and traffic conditions in the terminal airspace, but also anticipating future necessary reconfigurations. This will eliminate the inefficiencies of frequent changes currently associated with runway reconfiguration procedures.

runway reconfiguration↗
DOE OSTI2022

Preliminary Design of a New Pulsed-Neutron Die--Away Experiments with Absorbers (IER-552 CED-1)

This report presents the preliminary design (CED-1) of IER-552, pulsed-neutron die-away (PNDA) experiments with absorbers, to be conducted by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The goal of the PNDA experiments with absorbing materials is to produce high-quality, low-cost integral benchmarks that can be used to validate cross sections that are high priority nuclear data for the Department of Energy’s Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP). PNDA experiments can be used to generate nuclear data validation benchmarks quickly and cheaply, as they do not require fissile material or a nuclear facility to conduct them. The original PNDA experiments were set up at LLNL under IER-501. Extending the PNDA experiments to include absorbing materials leverages existing facilities and resources at LLNL to validate cross sections, with a basic experiment design that uses a neutron generator to impinge a short, mono-energetic neutron pulse on a poisoned, moderating target sample. The neutron pulse lasts 100 µs, after which the neutron population in the sample reaches thermal equilibrium and later spatial equilibrium. In this fully equilibrized state, the neutron population has a characteristic decay-time eigenvalue. The eigenvalue can be used as an integral parameter to validate nuclear data involved with neutron scattering and absorption. Two observables can be measured: the neutron population and the population of secondary γ-rays produced by inelastic and capture reactions. This report explores the feasibility of both approaches. For γ-ray measurements, this allows for direct measurement of reactions of interest for validation. During the neutron burst time, inelastic (prompt) γ-rays dominate, and these data can be isolated for validation of neutron inelastic scattering data. After the pulse ends, neutron capture (delayed) γ-rays dominate and are produced by many reaction channels as neutrons slow down to thermal energies. Two sets of γ-ray spectra (inelastic, capture) can be produced for validation. Additionally, the time-dependent decay of the capture γ-ray population when the neutron population is thermalized and in its fundamental mode can be used for validation. Two experiments can be imagined where pulsed neutrons are used to validate the nuclear data of absorbing materials. The first integrates well into the existing PNDA testbed at LLNL. The absorber material would be introduced into a moderating target and the same neutron generator, neutron detectors, electronics, and shielding box used for IER-501 would be employed. From the same experimental setup, many absorbing materials can be validated by simply changing the neutron poison in the moderator. The only significant modification would be the introduction of a γ-ray detector. Such an experiment would primarily serve to validate nuclear data in the thermal energy range. The second kind of experiment would validate the fast and epithermal energy range. It would involve pulsing neutron into a bare assembly of the absorber material and measuring the die-away of neutrons. The fast leakage of such an assembly requires nanosecond neutron-generator pulse widths and fast detectors/electronics that could measure ~200 ns die-away curves. This kind of experiment would ideally be performed at a cyclotron, like that available at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of AGR-3/4 In-pile Silver Release Predictions Against Post-Irradiation Examination Measurements

Fuel performance modeling codes that accurately predict the transport of radionuclides in high-temperature gas-cooled reactors that utilize tristructural isotopic (TRISO) fuel particles are an important aspect of reactor safety analyses. One objective of the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-3/4 experiment was to assess the transport of fission products through fuel particles and their subsequent release into the compact matrix and structural graphite materials. This was accomplished by irradiating uranium oxycarbide (UCO) driver fuel particles and designed-to-fail (DTF) particles to serve as known sources of fission products. The fission product of particular interest when it comes to such transport is silver (Ag-110 m), as it has a 250-day half-life and has relatively high mobility in the TRISO coating layers. Furthermore, to assess the current modeling capabilities and diffusion parameters employed in the fuel performance codes PARFUME and BISON, the fractional release of silver release predicted by the two codes were compared against post-irradiation examination measurements from the AGR-3/4 experiment.

AGR-3/4 Experiment↗
DOE OSTI2020

Slide Test FY 2019 Report

At Los Alamos, the Slide Test was developed in 2019 to investigate whether the mass of a main charge of explosive sliding on a gritty surface, in the absence of impact, is sufficient to heat grit to ignition temperatures in PBX 9501. This is a practical test to address frictional ignition during assembly/disassembly operations at the Pantex Plant. Twenty-seven Slide Tests were performed in total, testing PBX 9501 at various slide velocities, grit diameters, grit patterns, and charge masses. Time-resolved velocimetry of the slide event (from PDV) and spot area of the explosive charge (obtained from image analysis) is reported. High-speed videography is used to diagnose explosive reaction. Eighteen of these tests were performed with a charge mass of 30 lbs at velocities ≤ 4 m s-1 and grit diameters between 75 and 1000 µm. Nine Slide Tests were performed with a 15 lb charge mass at similar parameters. No ignition was observed in any of the tests. These data provide evidence that the mass of a main charge, caused to slide on a surface at the low velocities achievable during routine handling, is insufficient stimulus to heat grit to ignition temperatures. These findings are relevant to risk assessment for explosive handling operations and provide evidence that PBX 9501 is safe within the constraints that were tested. However, because ignitions were not observed in any of the tests, we cannot determine which variables (mass or velocity) dominate the explosive response and to what extent. The absence of observed ignition also precludes the determination of a safety margin. To identify this safety margin, further research would be necessary to define the velocity and/or mass threshold at which ignition occurs.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
NASA NTRS2000

Uncertainty Analysis of Decomposing Polyurethane Foam

Sensitivity/uncertainty analyses are necessary to determine where to allocate resources for improved predictions in support of our nation's nuclear safety mission. Yet, sensitivity/uncertainty analyses are not commonly performed on complex combustion models because the calculations are time consuming, CPU intensive, nontrivial exercises that can lead to deceptive results. To illustrate these ideas, a variety of sensitivity/uncertainty analyses were used to determine the uncertainty associated with thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam exposed to high radiative flux boundary conditions. The polyurethane used in this study is a rigid closed-cell foam used as an encapsulant. Related polyurethane binders such as Estane are used in many energetic materials of interest to the JANNAF community. The complex, finite element foam decomposition model used in this study has 25 input parameters that include chemistry, polymer structure, and thermophysical properties. The response variable was selected as the steady-state decomposition front velocity calculated as the derivative of the decomposition front location versus time. An analytical mean value sensitivity/uncertainty (MV) analysis was used to determine the standard deviation by taking numerical derivatives of the response variable with respect to each of the 25 input parameters. Since the response variable is also a derivative, the standard deviation was essentially determined from a second derivative that was extremely sensitive to numerical noise. To minimize the numerical noise, 50-micrometer element dimensions and approximately 1-msec time steps were required to obtain stable uncertainty results. As an alternative method to determine the uncertainty and sensitivity in the decomposition front velocity, surrogate response surfaces were generated for use with a constrained Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) technique. Two surrogate response surfaces were investigated: 1) a linear surrogate response surface (LIN) and 2) a quadratic response surface (QUAD). The LHS techniques do not require derivatives of the response variable and are subsequently relatively insensitive to numerical noise. To compare the LIN and QUAD methods to the MV method, a direct LHS analysis (DLHS) was performed using the full grid and timestep resolved finite element model. The surrogate response models (LIN and QUAD) are shown to give acceptable values of the mean and standard deviation when compared to the fully converged DLHS model.

Hobbs, Michael L.↗