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DOE OSTI2015

Fully Autonomous Multiplet Event Detection: Application to Local-Distance Monitoring of Blood Falls Seismicity

We apply a fully autonomous icequake detection methodology to a single day of high-sample rate (200 Hz) seismic network data recorded from the terminus of Taylor Glacier, ANT that temporally coincided with a brine release episode near Blood Falls (May 13, 2014). We demonstrate a statistically validated procedure to assemble waveforms triggered by icequakes into populations of clusters linked by intra-event waveform similarity. Our processing methodology implements a noise-adaptive power detector coupled with a complete-linkage clustering algorithm and noise-adaptive correlation detector. This detector-chain reveals a population of 20 multiplet sequences that includes ~150 icequakes and produces zero false alarms on the concurrent, diurnally variable noise. Our results are very promising for identifying changes in background seismicity associated with the presence or absence of brine release episodes. We thereby suggest that our methodology could be applied to longer time periods to establish a brine-release monitoring program for Blood Falls that is based on icequake detections.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2016

DARHT Multi-intelligence Seismic and Acoustic Data Analysis

The purpose of this report is to document the analysis of seismic and acoustic data collected at the Dual-Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test (DARHT) facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory for robust, multi-intelligence decision making. The data utilized herein is obtained from two tri-axial seismic sensors and three acoustic sensors, resulting in a total of nine data channels. The goal of this analysis is to develop a generalized, automated framework to determine internal operations at DARHT using informative features extracted from measurements collected external of the facility. Our framework involves four components: (1) feature extraction, (2) data fusion, (3) classification, and finally (4) robustness analysis. Two approaches are taken for extracting features from the data. The first of these, generic feature extraction, involves extraction of statistical features from the nine data channels. The second approach, event detection, identifies specific events relevant to traffic entering and leaving the facility as well as explosive activities at DARHT and nearby explosive testing sites. Event detection is completed using a two stage method, first utilizing signatures in the frequency domain to identify outliers and second extracting short duration events of interest among these outliers by evaluating residuals of an autoregressive exogenous time series model. Features extracted from each data set are then fused to perform analysis with a multi-intelligence paradigm, where information from multiple data sets are combined to generate more information than available through analysis of each independently. The fused feature set is used to train a statistical classifier and predict the state of operations to inform a decision maker. We demonstrate this classification using both generic statistical features and event detection and provide a comparison of the two methods. Finally, the concept of decision robustness is presented through a preliminary analysis where uncertainty is added to the system through noise in the measurements.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Scalable Metadata Management for a Large Multi-Source Seismic Data Repository

In this work, we implemented the key metadata management components of a scalable seismic data ingestion framework to address limitations in our existing system, and to position it for anticipated growth in volume and complexity. We began the effort with an assessment of open source data flow tools from the Hadoop ecosystem. We then began the construction of a layered architecture that is specifically designed to address many of the scalability and data quality issues we experience with our current pipeline. This included implementing basic functionality in each of the layers, such as establishing a data lake, designing a unified metadata schema, tracking provenance, and calculating data quality metrics. Our original intent was to test and validate the new ingestion framework with data from a large-scale field deployment in a temporary network. This delivered somewhat unsatisfying results, since the new system immediately identified fatal flaws in the data relatively early in the pipeline. Although this is a correct result it did not allow us to sufficiently exercise the whole framework. We then widened our scope to process all available metadata from over a dozen online seismic data sources to further test the implementation and validate the design. This experiment also uncovered a higher than expected frequency of certain types of metadata issues that challenged us to further tune our data management strategy to handle them. Our result from this project is a greatly improved understanding of real world data issues, a validated design, and prototype implementations of major components of an eventual production framework. This successfully forms the basis of future development for the Geophysical Monitoring Program data pipeline, which is a critical asset supporting multiple programs. It also positions us very well to deliver valuable metadata management expertise to our sponsors, and has already resulted in an NNSA Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation commitment to a multi-year project for follow-on work.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

A Preliminary Explosion Seismic Spectral Model for Saturated/Hard Rock

This short technical report describes a new seismic spectral model for chemical and nuclear explosions in saturated and/or hard rock. Results from the Source Physics Experiments (SPE) indicate that existing explosion spectral models can be poor fits to small and/or over-buried explosions. Here we develop a preliminary improved explosion model to fit both SPE and historic nuclear explosion data. The model is based on revising the Mueller and Murphy (1972) and Denny and Johnson (1991) seismic spectral models. A FORTRAN code was developed to provide the spectral models in SAC format for use in explosion monitoring applications such as detection and yield estimation. This model should be considered preliminary and work is underway to better generalize and expand the model to include explosions in dry porous and/or soft rock media and to better fit explosion S-waves.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Analysis of seismicity at observed at station BCE using subspace detectors

A dynamic correlation processor (DCP) was used to process 90 days of 3-component seismic data recorded by station BCE. Two methods of detector creation were compared. The first attempted to span the signal space with a small number of subspace detectors having minimal projections on one another, and the second used a much larger number of detectors with substantial inter-template projections. After two passes over the data the results were compared, and the second approach was found to have produced more than 3 times the number of detections. For events in common, the average correlation statistic for the second approach was 0.77 compared to a statistic of 0.65 for the first approach. Also, analysis of the detection statistics as a function of SNR showed a strong functional relationship between SNR and correlation statistic for the second approach not found in the first approach. I interpret this to mean that the intra-group variability of signals produced by the second method is due primarily to noise rather than variations in source or path. These results show that (in an environment with large numbers of repeaters) if precise classification is a goal, it is better to operate a DCP with many correlators with substantial inter-template projections and that fully span the signal space. The performance of the DCP was also measured using a small set of “ground truth” picks for BCE from the Chip Brogan catalog. The catalog spanned less than three days out of the 90 days of the experiment and is also incomplete, but the comparison identified 12 signals missed by the DCP because of low SNR. Combining detections by the DCP and picks from the Brogan catalog, identifies 76 unique signals. Of these, the DCP detected 64 (84%) and the Catalog contained between 48/76 (63%) and 48/62 (77%). Analysis of time-of-day and day-of-week statistics was not useful in identifying the signal sources. However, magnitude recurrence statistics were consistent with mining induced seismicity (a preponderance of small sources). Failure of the temporal discriminants may indicate that the events being detected are not coupled in the same way to the mining activity, e.g. secondary failures. Correlation data from explosions at the Nevada test site (NTS) were used to bound the separation of events within groups. Nearly all the NTS correlations with the same passband and time bandwidth product as the detections and having a correlation statistic >= 0.8 are from sources separated by less than 1 km. Even at correlation values of 0.6 nearly all the source separations are less than about 3 km. Because the DCP detectors were formed to span the signal space at a correlation value of 0.9 and because the intra-group variability is most likely due to noise and not source variability, it is likely that the sources associated with each detector are separated by one km or less, and almost certain that the majority are separated by no more than 3 km.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2018

Pararhombi: Parallel Implementation of 3-D Seismic Wave Propagation in Orthorhombic Media

Many earth materials and minerals are seismically anisotropic; however, due to the weakness of anisotropy and for simplicity, the earth is often approximated as an isotropic medium. Specific circumstances, such as in shales, tectonic fabrics, or oriented fractures, for example, require the use of anisotropic simulations in order to accurately model the earth. This report details the development of a new massively parallel 3-D full seismic waveform simulation algorithm within the principle coordinate system of an orthorhombic material, which is a specific form of anisotropy common in layered, fractured media. The theory and implementation of Pararhombi is described along with verification of the code against other solutions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

ChemoMechanical Controls on Induced Seismicity

In recent years, seismicity rates in the US have dramatically risen due to increased activity in onshore oil and gas production. This project attempts to tie observations about induced seismicity to dehydration reactions in laumontite, a common mineral found in fault gouge in crystalline basement formations. It is the hypothesis of this study that in addition to pressurerelated changes in the in situ stress state, the injection of wastewater pushes new fluids into crystalline fault fracture networks that are not in chemical equilibrium with the mineral assemblages, particularly laumontite in fault gouge. Experiments were conducted under hydrothermal conditions where samples of laumontite were exposed to NaC1 brines at different pH values. After exposure to different fluid chemistries for 8 weeks at 90° C, we did not observe substantial alteration of laumontite. In hydrostatic compaction experiments, all samples deformed similarly in the presence of different fluids. Pore pressure decreases were observed at the start of a 1 week hold at 85° C in a 1M NaC1 pH 3 solution, suggesting that acidic fluids might stabilize pore pressures in basement fault networks. Friction experiments on laumontite and kaolinite powders showed both materials have similar coefficients of friction. Mixtures with partial kaolinite content showed a slight decrease in the coefficient of friction, which could be sufficient to trigger slip on critically stressed basement faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Near-Field Imaging of Shallow Chemical Detonations in Granite using Change Detection Methods of Borehole Seismic Data

As part of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Phase I shallow chemical detonation series, multiple surface and borehole active-source seismic campaigns were executed to perform high resolution imaging of seismic velocity changes in the granitic substrate. Cross-correlation data processing methods were implemented to efficiently and robustly perform semi-automated change detection of first-arrival times between campaigns. The change detection algorithm updates the arrival times, and consequently the velocity model, of each campaign. The resulting tomographic imagery reveals the evolution of the subsurface velocity structure as the detonations progressed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Pararhombi: Parallel Implementation of 3-D Seismic Wave Propagation in Orthorhombic Media

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

PF-4 Seismic Performance Reassessment, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Project Charter and Integrated Project Team

This report presents the charter of the Integrated Project Team for conducting the PF-4 Seismic Performance Reassessment (P-SPRa) Project. The overall objective of the project is to compute the seismic performance of the PF-4 structure. The credited safety feature of the structure is to provide tertiary confinement of hazardous materials. This document highlights major tasks to be performed as part of the project. It includes a project schedule and a work breakdown structure dictionary. It also includes roles and responsibilities for key project personnel.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Near-Field Imaging of Shallow Chemical Detonations in Granite using Change Detection Methods of Borehole Seismic Data

As part of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Phase I shallow chemical detonation series, multiple surface and borehole active-source seismic campaigns were executed to perform high-resolution imaging of seismic velocity changes in the granitic substrate. Cross-correlation data processing methods were implemented to efficiently and robustly perform semi-automated change detection of first-arrival times between campaigns. The change detection algorithm updates the arrival times, and consequently the velocity model, of each campaign. The resulting tomographic imagery reveals the evolution of the subsurface velocity structure as the detonations progressed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Evaluating and Improving the USGS 3D Seismic Velocity Model in the San Francisco East Bay by Integrating Earthquake Ground-Motion Simulations and Noise-Derived Empirical Green's Functions

Simulations of scenario earthquake ground motions play an increasingly important role in improving seismic hazard assessment. In the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) the USGS has developed a 3D geologic/seismic model. Simulations of large magnitude (M) 7 Hayward Fault scenario earthquakes show dramatic differences in peak ground motions across the fault, arising from wavespeed differences, which highlights the need to evaluate the model. Our comparison of observed and simulated waveforms from M 4 SFBA earthquakes reveals bias in the travel times of direct S-waves for paths crossing the East Bay Hills, east of Hayward Fault, suggests that the shear wavespeeds in the upper crust of the USGS 3D model are too low, resulting in large delay times of S-wave arrivals at the East Bay Hills. We also retrieved noise-derived Green's functions (NGFs) and examined the path-specific bias in the USGS 3D model. We systematically compared synthetic waveforms with the 3D velocity model and observed NGFs. Our result shows that the time lags between the synthetic and observed data ranging from 2-5 seconds for the ray paths propagating the East Bay Hills. This result also suggests that the SFBA 3D model generates arrivals that are too slow. Additionally, we evaluate the Rayleigh-wave ellipticity to evaluate the subsurface velocity beneath seismic stations. A lateral variation in Rayleigh-wave ellipticity across the Hayward fault is observed, which will contribute to refine the SFBA 3D velocity model.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Advanced Seismic Fragility Modeling using Nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction Analysis

The goal of this effort is to compare the seismic fragilities of a nuclear power plant system obtained by a traditional seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) and an advanced SPRA that utilizes Nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction (NLSSI) analysis. Soil-structure interaction (SSI) response analysis for a traditional SPRA involves the linear analysis, which ignores geometric nonlinearities (i.e., soil and structure are glued together and the soil material undergoes tension when the structure uplifts). The NLSSI analysis will consider geometric nonlinearities.

31274, LWRS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Screening IMS Seismic Detections using Dynamic Correlation Processor: Progress report for 2020

LLNL completed the FY20 workplan entailing application of the Dynamic Correlation Processor (DCP) to International Monitoring System (IMS) primary seismic data in 2019 and 2020. The effective analysis period was curtailed to January 1 through November 12, 2019 due to a data compression change that rendered later data unusable. Fixing the data compression error is a priority for our data source, and we plan to extend the period of data analysis when the fix is implemented. We found that the percentage overlap between detections generated by the International Data Centre (IDC) DFX software and detections generated by DCP varied widely by station. Overlap is 30-40% at some stations, suggesting that a large percentage of DFX detections could be screened (removed) from the detection-event association algorithm. However, detection overlap was much lower, a few percent, at many stations and the percentage overlap was low at stations known to have many mines and other local sources of seismicity. Unexpectedly low detection overlap at many stations prompted us to examine results for the ARCES station in detail. There is considerable mine activity near ARCES, but our initial FY20 analysis found only ~2% DCP/DFX detection overlap. Differences in the pre-processing (e.g. beam recipes) used by DCP and DFX appear to be the cause of low detection overlap at ARCES. DCP uses wideband filters to improve detector robustness and the IDC uses narrow-band pre-filtering to improve sensitivity. After reprocessing ARCES using the IDC beam recipe, DCP/DFX overlap increased to ~74%. This result shows that we must reprocess the IMS network using the IDC station-specific beam recipes if we are to effectively screen DFX detections and improve automatic event building performance at the IDC.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Multi-Instance learning Framework for Seismic Detectors

In this report, we construct and test a framework for fusing the predictions of a ensemble of seismic wave detectors. The framework is drawn from multi-instance learning and is meant to improve the predictive skill of the ensemble beyond that of the individual detectors. We show how the framework allows the use of multiple features derived from the seismogram to detect seismic wave arrivals, as well as how it allows only the most informative features to be retained in the ensemble. The computational cost of the "ensembling" method is linear in the size of the ensemble, allowing a scalable method for monitoring multiple features/transformations of a seismogram. The framework is tested on teleseismic and regional p-wave arrivals at the IMS (International Monitoring System) station in Warramunga, NT, Australia and the PNSU station in University of Utah's monitoring network.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Seismic Wave Coherence as a Function of Propagation Azimuth at the Large-N Array, Source Physics Experiment

The Large-N array of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) consisted, in part, of 496 vertical component geophones that recorded the seismic wave field produced by the SPE-5 buried chemical explosion. Preliminary observations of the data showed a large degree of azimuthally dependent seismic scattering, particularly for post-P wave arrivals, hindering surface wave analysis. We document and quantify the azimuthal dependence of the wave field scattering in order to guide future coherent wave field processing methods. Specifically, we form three linear arrays, with different nominal source-receiver azimuths, by extracting a subset of the Large-N stations. For each linear array, we evaluate wave field coherence as a function of frequency and inter-station distance. For P waves, we observe that there is a strong azimuthal dependence of wave coherence, with the highest degree of scattering occurring in a northwest/southeast propagation direction. This suggests that there are structural elements beneath the Large-N array that affect the direct source to receiver body wave ray path. We also observe that the scattering of the post-P energy displays a coherence that is dependent on both frequency and azimuthal direction. This energy is preferentially coherent in the southwest-to-northeast propagation direction, consistent with the strike of the steeply dipping fault (Boundary fault) adjacent to the northeast side of the Large-N array, but only at low frequencies (<10 Hz). At higher frequencies, the azimuthally dependent wave coherence diminishes, suggesting that the scattering of high frequency portion of the post-P wave field is independent of the large-scale geologic structure at this site.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Recovery and calibration of legacy analog data from the Leo Brady Seismic Network for the Source Physics Experiment

The Leo Brady Seismic Network (LBSN) was established in 1960 by Sandia National Laboratories for monitoring underground nuclear tests (UGTs) at the Nevada Test Site— renamed in 2010 to the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The LBSN has been in various configurations throughout its existence, but it has been generally comprised of four to six stations at regional distances from the NNSS with evenly spaced azimuthal coverage. Between 1962 and the early 1980s, the LBSN—and a sister network operated by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory—were the most comprehensive U.S. source of regional seismic data of UGTs. During the pre-digital era, LBSN data were transmitted as frequency-modulated (FM) audio over telephone lines to the NTS and recorded in analog on hi-fi 8-track AMPEX tapes. These tapes have been stored in temperature-stable buildings or bunkers on the NNSS and Kirtland Air Force Base in Albuquerque, NM for decades and contain the sole record of this irreplaceable data from the analog era; full waveforms of UGTs during this time were never routinely converted to digital form. We have been developing a process over the past few years to recover and calibrate data from these tapes, converting them from FM audio to digital waveforms in ground motion units. The calibration of legacy data from the LBSN is still ongoing. To date, we have digitized tapes from 592 separate UGTs. As a proof-of-concept, we calibrated data from the BOXCAR event.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Approximating and incorporating model uncertainty in an inversion for seismic source functions: Preliminary results

We present preliminary work on propagating model uncertainty into the estimation of the time domain source time functions of the seismic source. Our method is based on an estimated model covariance function, which we estimate from the data. The model covariance function is then used to construct a suite of surrogate Greens functions which we use in a Monte Carlo type inversion scheme. The result is a probability density function of the six independent source time functions, each of which corresponds to an individual component of the seismic moment tensor. We compare the results of our method with those obtained using a computationally expensive finite difference Monte Carlo method and find that our new method produces results that are deficient in low frequencies. The advantage of our new method, which we term the Karhunen-Loeve Monte Carlo (KLMC) method, is that is several orders of magnitude faster than our current method, which uses a finite difference scheme to produce the suite of forward models.

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