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A preliminary study of the tropical water cycle and its sensitivity to surface warming

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCEM) has been used to demonstrate that cumulus-scale dynamics and microphysics play a major role in determining the vertical distribution of water vapor and clouds in the tropical atmosphere. The GCEM is described and is the basic structure of cumulus convection. The long-term equilibrium response to tropical convection to surface warming is examined. A picture of the water cycle within tropical cumulus clusters is developed.

Lau, K. M.↗

Electrohydrodynamic (EHD) stimulation of jet breakup

Electrohydrodynamic (EHD) excitation of liquid jets offers an alternative to piezoelectric excitation without the complex frequency response caused by piezoelectric and mechanical resonances. In an EHD exciter, an electrode near the nozzle applies an alternating Coulomb force to the jet surface, generating a disturbance which grows until a drop breaks off downstream. This interaction is modelled quite well by a linear, long wave model of the jet together with a cylindrical electric field. The breakup length, measured on a 33 micrometer jet, agrees quite well with that predicted by the theory, and increases with the square of the applied voltage, as expected. In addition, the frequency response is very smooth, with pronounced nulls occurring only at frequencies related to the time which the jet spends inside the exciter.

Crowley, J. M.↗

ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century

Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Model, Proxy and Isotopic Perspectives on the East African Humid Period

Both North and East Africa experienced more humid conditions during the early and mid-Holocene epoch (11,000-5000yr BP; 11-5 ka) relative to today. The North African Humid Period has been a major focus of paleoclimatic study, and represents a response of the hydrological cycle to the increase in boreal summer insolation and associated ocean, atmosphere and land surface feedbacks. Meanwhile, the mechanisms that caused the coeval East African Humid Period are poorly understood. Here, we use results from isotopeenabled coupled climate modeling experiments to investigate the cause of the East African Humid Period. The modeling results are interpreted alongside proxy records of both water balance and the isotopic composition of rainfall. Our simulations show that the orbitally-induced increase in dry season precipitation and the subsequent reduction in precipitation seasonality can explain the East African Humid Period, and this scenario agrees well with regional lake level and pollen paleoclimate data. Changes in zonal moisture flux from both the Atlantic and Indian Ocean account for the simulated increase in precipitation from June through November. Isotopic paleoclimate data and simulated changes in moisture source demonstrate that the western East African Rift Valley in particular experienced more humid conditions due to the influx of Atlantic moisture and enhanced convergence along the Congo Air Boundary. Our study demonstrates that zonal changes in moisture advection are an important determinant of climate variability in the East African region.

Tierney, Jessica E.↗

Soil Moisture and Snow Cover: Active or Passive Elements of Climate?

A key question in the study of the hydrologic cycle is the extent to which surface effects such as soil moisture and snow cover are simply passive elements or whether they can affect the evolution of climate on seasonal and longer time scales. We have constructed ensembles of predictability studies using the NCAR CCM3 in which we compared the relative roles of initial surface and atmospheric conditions over the central and western U.S. GAPP region in determining the subsequent evolution of soil moisture and of snow cover. We have also made sensitivity studies with exaggerated soil moisture and snow cover anomalies in order to determine the physical processes that may be important. Results from simulations with realistic soil moisture anomalies indicate that internal climate variability may be the strongest factor, with some indication that the initial atmospheric state is also important. The initial state of soil moisture does not appear important, a result that held whether simulations were started in late winter or late spring. Model runs with exaggerated soil moisture reductions (near-desert conditions) showed a much larger effect, with warmer surface temperatures, reduced precipitation, and lower surface pressures; the latter indicating a response of the atmospheric circulation. These results suggest the possibility of a threshold effect in soil moisture, whereby an anomaly must be of a sufficient size before it can have a significant impact on the atmospheric circulation and hence climate. Results from simulations with realistic snow cover anomalies indicate that the time of year can be crucial. When introduced in late winter, these anomalies strongly affected the subsequent evolution of snow cover. When introduced in early winter, however, little or no effect is seen on the subsequent snow cover. Runs with greatly exaggerated initial snow cover indicate that the high reflectivity of snow is the most important process by which snow cover can impact climate, through lower surface temperatures and increased surface pressures. In early winter, the amount of solar radiation is very small and so this albedo, effect is inconsequential while in late winter, with the sun higher in the sky and period of daylight longer, the effect is much stronger. The results to date were obtained for model runs with present-day conditions. We are currently analyzing runs made with projected forcings for the 21st century to see if these results are modified in any way under likely scenarios of future climate change.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗

Machine Learning Calibration of Groundwater Table Depth in ELM: Impact on Land Surface Hydrology and Land‐Atmosphere Fluxes

Accurate representation of groundwater table depth (GWTD) is crucial for simulating hydrological cycling in Earth system models (ESM). Nevertheless, there is a notable gap in the literature regarding the validation of GWTD simulations in ESMs and their subsequent impact on downstream hydrological components. This study explores the calibration of parameterization of global GWTD using machine learning within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM). Despite achieving significant gains in simulating GWTD through calibration, offline ELM simulations unexpectedly show that these improvements do not translate to substantial enhancements in model performance for other key hydrological variables, including soil moisture (SM), runoff, groundwater contribution to runoff or base flow index (BFI), and evapotranspiration and its partitioning. The performance in SM and runoff was even degraded in some regions, while BFI was mostly overestimated. Although there is significant improvement in GWTD within the critical range of 1–5 m, where groundwater traditionally influences land surface energy fluxes, these improvements occurred mostly in humid areas where the impact of GWTD on surface processes is minimal. Although the impacts of model calibration are generally small in offline ELM simulations, coupled land-atmosphere simulations exhibit much stronger responses to GWTD calibration, highlighting the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks in Earth system modeling. These findings underscore the need for integrated calibration strategies that simultaneously optimize multiple hydrological variables. However, if a single-variable approach is necessary, it is crucial to establish clear priorities for calibration, identifying the most critical variables that have the greatest impact on overall model performance.

Fang, Yilin [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory↗

Monte Carlo modeling of spin-polarized photoemission from p -doped bulk GaAs

Here, the anticorrelation between quantum efficiency (QE) and electron spin polarization (ESP) from a ρ-doped GaAs activated to negative electron affinity is studied in detail using an ensemble Monte Carlo approach. The photoabsorption, momentum and spin relaxation during transport, and tunneling of electrons through the surface potential barrier are modeled to identify fundamental mechanisms, which limit the efficiency of GaAs spin-polarized electron sources. In particular, we study the response of QE and ESP to various parameters, such as the photoexcitation energy, doping density, and electron affinity level. Our modeling results for various transport and emission characteristics are in good agreement with available experimental data. Our findings show that the behavior of both QE and ESP at room temperature can be fully explained by the bulk relaxation mechanisms and the time that electrons spend in the material before being emitted.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Global and regional hydrological impacts of global forest expansion

Abstract. Large-scale reforestation, afforestation, and forest restoration schemes have gained global support as climate change mitigation strategies due to their significant carbon dioxide removal (CDR) potential. However, there has been limited research into the unintended consequences of forestation from a biophysical perspective. In the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), we apply a global forestation scenario, within a Paris Agreement-compatible warming scenario, to investigate the land surface and hydroclimate response. Compared to a control scenario where land use is fixed to present-day levels, the forestation scenario is up to 2 °C cooler at low latitudes by 2100, driven by a 10 % increase in evaporative cooling in forested areas. However, afforested areas where grassland or shrubland are replaced lead to a doubling of plant water demand in some tropical regions, causing significant decreases in soil moisture (∼ 5 % globally, 5 %–10 % regionally) and water availability (∼ 10 % globally, 10 %–15 % regionally) in regions with increased forest cover. While there are some increases in low cloud and seasonal precipitation over the expanded tropical forests, with enhanced negative cloud radiative forcing, the impacts on large-scale precipitation and atmospheric circulation are limited. This contrasts with the precipitation response to simulated large-scale deforestation found in previous studies. The forestation scenario demonstrates local cooling benefits without major disruption to global hydrodynamics beyond those already projected to result from climate change, in addition to the cooling associated with CDR. However, the water demands of extensive forestation, especially afforestation, have implications for its viability, given the uncertainty in future precipitation changes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS): Inflight radiometric calibration and the determination of surface reflectance

The inflight radiometric performance of AVIRIS is presented together with a comparison of methods of recovering surface spectral reflectance from the data. Performance is evaluated by comparing radiance predicted from AVIRIS with radiance generated from the LOWIRAN 6 atmospheric model and measured surface reflectance. Comparisons show apparent agreement to within a few percent between 1800 and 2450 nm. Between 600 and 1800 nm the response of AVIRIS is systematically low by as much as 70 percent, and between 400 and 600 nm it is higher than expected. These problems are traced to thermal distortions of the instrument, and to detachment during flight of optical fibers connecting foreoptics to two of four spectrometers in the instrument. Of three methods studied, an empirical one involving calibration curves constructed from field reflectance measurements returns accurate predictions of the surface reflectance independent of the actual radiometric significance of the flight data.

Conel, J. E.↗

Micromechanics of compression failures in open hole composite laminates

The local softening in the damage zone that precedes compression failures in laminates with holes was modeled using a Dugdale-type approach, and the calculated load to damage-size relationships were compared to the actual data obtained in two composite systems, AS4/PEEK and T2C145/F155, loaded to compression. The comparison indicates that the Dugdale model, which works well for metals, did not accurately predict the load-damage zone size relationship in these specimens. Possible reasons for the poor agreement are considered to be the fact that the constitutive relationship used in the Dugdale model is not an accurate description of material response in the crush zone, and the fact that the crush zone size is measured on the surface of the specimen, while this size is not an accurate indication of the actual crush zone size through the laminate.

Guynn, E. Gail↗

A Global Optimization Methodology for Rocket Propulsion Applications

While the response surface method is an effective method in engineering optimization, its accuracy is often affected by the use of limited amount of data points for model construction. In this chapter, the issues related to the accuracy of the RS approximations and possible ways of improving the RS model using appropriate treatments, including the iteratively re-weighted least square (IRLS) technique and the radial-basis neural networks, are investigated. A main interest is to identify ways to offer added capabilities for the RS method to be able to at least selectively improve the accuracy in regions of importance. An example is to target the high efficiency region of a fluid machinery design space so that the predictive power of the RS can be maximized when it matters most. Analytical models based on polynomials, with controlled level of noise, are used to assess the performance of these techniques.

Source record↗

Nonequilibrium Ablation of Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator

In previous work, an equilibrium ablation and thermal response model for Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator was developed. In general, over a wide range of test conditions, model predictions compared well with arcjet data for surface recession, surface temperature, in-depth temperature at multiple thermocouples, and char depth. In this work, additional arcjet tests were conducted at stagnation conditions down to 40 W/sq cm and 1.6 kPa. The new data suggest that nonequilibrium effects become important for ablation predictions at heat flux or pressure below about 80 W/sq cm or 10 kPa, respectively. Modifications to the ablation model to account for nonequilibrium effects are investigated. Predictions of the equilibrium and nonequilibrium models are compared with the arcjet data.

Milos, Frank S.↗

MEDLI2: Ablator Models for Flight

During the entry of Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) the heatshield was equipped with the instrumentation suite Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instruments (MEDLI). In-depth thermocouple (TC) data was used to reconstruct the surface heating[1,2]. Discrepancies between MEDLI’s flight heating data and predicted thermal response and recession[3] led to a campaign to characterize and test Mars2020 and MEDLI2 (Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrument 2)[4] flight-lot thermal protection materials (TPS) at relevant ground test conditions. This paper covers the development and validation of flight-lot material response models for the heatshield material Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) and the backshell material SLA-561V (Super Lightweight Ablator). Virgin and char properties such as thermal conductivity and emissivity were updated as a function of temperature and pressure in the MEDLI2 specific material response models. Other material properties were characterized and determined to be similar to prior TPS material measurements used for the heritage models. MEDLI2 also investigated the impact of the protective coating that was applied to MSL and Mars2020’s PICA heatshield to reduce the particulate matter shedding. Evidence from arc jet experiments on coated PICA showed that although there were no adverse effects on the performance of the TPS, there were differences in the in-depth temperatures and reduced recession compared to material response predictions of uncoated PICA.[5,6]. Fully Implicit Ablation and Thermal response (FIAT)[7] material response simulations were conducted with the heritage and MEDLI2 flight-lot material models. FIAT-predicted in-depth temperature responses and recession predictions were compared to flight-lot certification ground-test arc jet test data and MEDLI2 thermocouple data.

Materials Response↗

Compensation of Oxygen Transmittance Effects for Proximal Sensing Retrieval of Canopy-Leaving Sun-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence

Estimates of Sun-Induced vegetation chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF) using remote sensing techniques are commonly determined by exploiting solar and/or telluric absorption features. When SIF is retrieved in the strong oxygen (O2) absorption features, atmospheric effects must always be compensated. Whereas correction of atmospheric effects is a standard airborne or satellite data processing step, there is no consensus regarding whether it is required for SIF proximal-sensing measurements nor what is the best strategy to be followed. Thus, by using simulated data, this work provides a comprehensive analysis about how atmospheric effects impact SIF estimations on proximal sensing, regarding: (1) the sensor height above the vegetated canopy; (2) the SIF retrieval technique used, e.g., Fraunhofer Line Discriminator (FLD) family or Spectral Fitting Methods (SFM); and (3) the instrument's spectral resolution. We demonstrate that for proximal-sensing scenarios compensating for atmospheric effects by simply introducing the O2 transmittance function into the FLD or SFM formulations improves SIF estimations. However, these simplistic corrections still lead to inaccurate SIF estimations due to the multiplication of spectrally convolved atmospheric transfer functions with absorption features. Consequently, a more rigorous oxygen compensation strategy is proposed and assessed by following a classic airborne atmospheric correction scheme adapted to proximal sensing. This approach allows compensating for the O2 absorption effects and, at the same time, convolving the high spectral resolution data according to the corresponding Instrumental Spectral Response Function (ISRF) through the use of an atmospheric radiative transfer model. Finally, due to the key role of O2 absorption on the evaluated proximal-sensing SIF retrieval strategies, its dependency on surface pressure (p) and air temperature (T) was also assessed. we combined simulated spectral data with p and T measurements obtained for a one-year period in the Hyytiala Forestry Field Station in Finland. Of importance hereby is that seasonal dynamics in terms of T and p, if not appropriately considered as part of the retrieval strategy, can result in erroneous SIF seasonal trends that mimic those of known dynamics for temperature-dependent physiological responses of vegetation.

"sun–induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF); pro↗

Transient thermoelasticity and other body force effects in boundary element shape sensitivity analysis

Structural shape design sensitivity analysis (DSA) is presented for objects subjected to gravity, centrifugal, and general thermal loading. DSA employs implicit differentiation of the governing boundary integral equations. Both a surface integral and a particular integral approach are discussed for computation of these effects in response analysis and sensitivity analysis. It is shown that the particular integral approach is capable of computing the sensitivities of objects subjected to nonharmonic temperature distributions. Attention is also given to several techniques for the modeling of temperature distributions in the DSA process. In particular, an approach that eliminates the need for the incorporation of thermal response analysis and sensitivity analysis is described in the overall shape optimization process. A sharp corner formulation is also presented that can account for the jump in the surface traction components at a sharp corner in an interzone boundary.

Kane, James H.↗

Design and Impacts of Land-Biogenic-Atmosphere Coupling in the NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF) Modeling System

Land-Atmosphere coupling is typically designed and implemented independently for physical (e.g. water and energy) and chemical (e.g. biogenic emissions and surface depositions)-based models and applications. Differences in scale, data requirements, and physics thus limit the ability of Earth System models to be fully coupled in a consistent manner. In order for the physical-chemical-biological coupling to be complete, treatment of the land in terms of surface classification, condition, fluxes, and emissions must be considered simultaneously and coherently across all components. In this study, we investigate a coupling strategy for the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model that incorporates the traditionally disparate fluxes of water and energy through NASA's LIS (Land Information System) and biogenic emissions through BEIS (Biogenic Emissions Inventory System) and MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature) into the atmosphere. In doing so, inconsistencies across model inputs and parameter data are resolved such that the emissions from a particular plant species are consistent with the heat and moisture fluxes calculated for that land cover type. In turn, the response of the atmospheric turbulence and mixing in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) acts on the identical surface type, fluxes, and emissions for each. In addition, the coupling of dust emission within the NU-WRF system is performed in order to ensure consistency and to maximize the benefit of high-resolution land representation in LIS. The impacts of those self-consistent components on' the simulation of atmospheric aerosols are then evaluated through the WRF-Chem-GOCART (Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport) model. Overall, this ambitious project highlights the current difficulties and future potential of fully coupled. components. in Earth System models, and underscores the importance of the iLEAPS community in supporting improved knowledge of processes and innovative approaches for models and observations.

Tan, Qian↗

Spectroscopic evaluation of tribologically-induced changes in surface chemistry of Zr-based bulk metallic glass

Bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) are promising structural materials owing to their high elastic limit and yield strength-to-weight ratio. While BMGs also exhibit attractive tribological properties (e.g., high wear resistance), the scientific basis for this behavior is not yet established. In particular, tribologically-induced changes in surface chemistry upon sliding are still an open topic of research. Here, we evaluated by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) the evolution of the surface chemistry of Vitreloy 105 (a Zr-rich BMG) upon sliding under different contact conditions against a tungsten carbide countersurface. The spectroscopic results indicate that the relative fraction of the metallic elements in the near-surface region is not affected by the sliding speed when the applied contact pressure is lower than 1.37 GPa, while a decrease in metallic zirconium was observed at lower sliding speeds and higher applied contact pressure (i.e., 1.71 GPa). Based on the spectroscopic results, a model is proposed for the effect of mechanical stress on the extent of oxidation of the near-surface region of Zr-based BMGs. In conclusion, the results of this work provide novel insights into the surface phenomena occurring on BMGs upon sliding and add significantly to our understanding of the tribological response of this class of promising structural materials.

Bulk metallic glasses↗

Aerothermal analysis of a wing-elevon cove with variable leakage

A mathematical model of the heating associated with leakage within the space shuttle orbiter wing elevon cove was used to analyze the aerothermal response of the structure. The analysis was applied to wind tunnel results and to shuttle entry conditions. A parametric study described the mechanism by which the energy of the ingested mass is distributed as a function of the Reynolds number, wall conductivity, surface emissivity, and cove height and length. The rate at which energy was transferred into the cove interior was primarily determined by the combined effects of the convection, wall capacitance, and internal radiation terms. Correlation with wind tunnel results indicated that the cold wall convective heating rates, wall temperature, and gas temperature of the cove were predicted by the analytical model for short exposure times. Predicted transient thermal response of the elevon cove subjected to shuttle entry conditions indicated that the allowable leak area at the cove seal was 20 percent less than that previously indicated by experiment.

Hunt, R. L.↗