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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Large-Eddy Simulation of Shallow Cumulus over Land: A Composite Case Based on ARM Long-Term Observations at Its Southern Great Plains Site

Based on long-term observations by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program at its Southern Great Plains site, a new composite case of continental shallow cumulus (ShCu) convection is constructed for large-eddy simulations (LES) and single-column models. The case represents a typical daytime nonprecipitating ShCu whose formation and dissipation are driven by the local atmospheric conditions and land surface forcing and are not influenced by synoptic weather events. The case includes early morning initial profiles of temperature and moisture with a residual layer; diurnally varying sensible and latent heat fluxes, which represent a domain average over different land surface types; simplified large-scale horizontal advective tendencies and subsidence; and horizontal winds with prevailing direction and average speed. Observed composite cloud statistics are provided for model evaluation. The observed diurnal cycle is well reproduced by LES; however, the cloud amount, liquid water path, and shortwave radiative effect are generally underestimated. LES are compared between simulations with an all-or-nothing bulk microphysics and a spectral bin microphysics. The latter shows improved agreement with observations in the total cloud cover and the amount of clouds with depths greater than 300 m. When compared with radar retrievals of in-cloud air motion, LES produce comparable downdraft vertical velocities, but a larger updraft area, velocity, and updraft mass flux. Both observations and LES show a significantly larger in-cloud downdraft fraction and downdraft mass flux than marine ShCu.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

An Improved Double-Gaussian Closure for the Subgrid Vertical Velocity Probability Distribution Function

Abstract The vertical velocity probability distribution function (PDF) is analyzed throughout the depth of the lower atmosphere, including the subcloud and cloud layers, in four large-eddy simulation (LES) cases of shallow cumulus and stratocumulus. Double-Gaussian PDF closures are examined to test their ability to represent a wide range of turbulence statistics, from stratocumulus cloud layers characterized by Gaussian turbulence to shallow cumulus cloud layers displaying strongly non-Gaussian turbulence statistics. While the majority of the model closures are found to perform well in the former case, the latter presents a considerable challenge. A new model closure is suggested that accounts for high skewness and kurtosis seen in shallow cumulus cloud layers. The well-established parabolic relationship between skewness and kurtosis is examined, with results in agreement with previous studies for the subcloud layer. In cumulus cloud layers, however, a modified relationship is necessary to improve performance. The new closure significantly improves the estimation of the vertical velocity PDF for shallow cumulus cloud layers, in addition to performing well for stratocumulus. In particular, the long updraft tail representing the bulk of cloudy points is much better represented and higher-order moments diagnosed from the PDF are also greatly improved. However, some deficiencies remain owing to fundamental limitations of representing highly non-Gaussian turbulence statistics with a double-Gaussian PDF.

Fitch, A. C.↗
DOE OSTI2015

The Rainfall Sensitivity of Tropical Net Primary Production in CMIP5 Twentieth- and Twenty-First-Century Simulations

In this study, the authors used the relationship between mean annual rainfall (MAR) and net primary production (NPP) (MAR–NPP) observed in tropical forests to evaluate the performance (twentieth century) and predictions (twenty-first century) of tropical NPP from 10 earth system models (ESMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Over the tropical forest domain most of the CMIP5 models showed a positive correlation between NPP and MAR similar to observations. The GFDL, CESM1, CCSM4, and Beijing Normal University (BNU) models better represented the observed MAR–NPP relationship. Compared with observations, the models were able to reproduce the seasonality of rainfall over areas with long dry seasons, but NPP seasonality was difficult to evaluate given the limited observations. From 2006 to 2100, for representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) (and most RCP4.5 simulations) all models projected increases in NPP, but these increases occurred at different rates. By the end of the twenty-first century the models with better performance against observed NPP–MAR projected increases in NPP between ~2% (RCP4.5) and ~19% (RCP8.5) relative to contemporary observations, representing increases of ~9% and ~25% relative to their historical simulations. When climate and CO 2 fertilization are considered as separate controls on plant physiology, the current climate yields maximum productivity. Yet, as future climate changes become detrimental to productivity, CO 2 fertilization becomes the dominant response, ending in an overall increase in NPP toward the end of the twenty-first century. Thus, the way in which models represent CO 2 fertilization affects their performance. Additional studies addressing the individual and simultaneous effect of other climate variables on NPP are needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

ENSO-Induced Teleconnection: Process-Oriented Diagnostics to Assess Rossby Wave Sources and Ambient Flow Properties in Climate Models

Climate model fidelity in representing ENSO-induced teleconnection is assessed with process-oriented diagnostics that examine a chain of processes, from equatorial Pacific precipitation to the midlatitude circulation pattern over the Pacific–North American regions. Such processes are rarely addressed during model development. Using an upper-tropospheric divergent level, local vorticity gradient of the ambient zonal flow (∂ 2 U¯/∂y 2 ) and a restoring force for Rossby waves (β * ) are estimated, the equivalent barotropic vorticity equation is solved, and an anomalous Rossby wave source (RWS') quantified. The analysis is applied to AMIP5 and AMIP6 simulations. For a realistic circulation response representation, the hypothesis that models accurately represent the strength and location of RWS', and spatial variations in β * is tested. Compared to AMIP5, in AMIP6 there are clear improvements in representing RWS' and β * . To validate the hypothesis, the analysis identifies two metrics: spatially coherent RWS' in the subtropical North Pacific, and longitudes of negative β * over the western-central North Pacific. By projecting these metrics in two and three-dimensional views, improvements or degradations in model versions are apparent. If a model’s fidelity in representing ∂ 2 U¯/∂y 2 and RWS' are compromised, then radiated Rossby waves are reflected more equatorward, resulting in zonally elongated circulation anomalies over the central North Pacific. Thus, during climate model development, applying this analysis frequently will keep a regular check on the fidelity of the modeled response to anomalous El Niño convection in conjunction with changing model ambient flow dependencies. As a result, this analysis is intended to form a process-oriented diagnostics package, a community contribution to the NOAA Model Diagnostics Task Force.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the Impacts of Land Surface Modeling on Hub-Height Wind Speed under Different Soil Conditions

We investigate the impact of three land surface models (LSMs) on hub-height wind speed under three different soil regimes (dry, wet, and frozen) to understand and improve the physics of wind energy forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A six-day representative period is selected for each soil condition. The simulated wind speed, surface energy budget and soil properties are compared with the observations collected from the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). For the selected cases, our simulation results suggest that, the impact of LSMs on hub-height wind speed are sensitive to the soil states but not so much to the choice of LSM. The simulated hub-height wind speed is in much better agreement with the observations for the dry soil case than the wet and frozen soil cases. Over the dry soil, there is a strong physical connection between the land surface and hub-height wind speed through near-surface turbulent mixing. Over the wet soil, the simulated hub-height wind speed is less impacted by land surface due to weaker surface fluxes and more dominated by large-scale synoptic disturbances. Over the frozen soil, the land surface model seems to have limited impact on hub-height wind speed variability due to the decoupling of the land surface with the overlying atmosphere. Two main sources of modeling uncertainties are proposed. The first are the insufficient model physics representing the surface energy budget, especially the ground heat flux, and the second are the inaccurate initial soil states such as soil temperature and soil moisture.

Xia, Geng↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pre-Cambrian roots of novel Antarctic cryptoendolithic bacterial lineages

Cryptoendolithic communities are microbial ecosystems dwelling inside porous rocks that are able to persist at the edge of the biological potential for life in the ice-free areas of the Antarctic desert. These regions include the McMurdo Dry Valleys, often accounted as the closest terrestrial counterpart of the Martian environment and thought to be devoid of life until the discovery of these cryptic life-forms. Despite their interest as a model for the early colonization by living organisms of terrestrial ecosystems and for adaptation to extreme conditions of stress, little is known about the evolution, diversity, and genetic makeup of bacterial species that reside in these environments. Using the Illumina Novaseq platform, we generated the first metagenomes from rocks collected in Continental Antarctica over a distance of about 350 km along an altitudinal transect from 834 up to 3100 m above sea level (a.s.l.). A total of 497 draft bacterial genome sequences were assembled and clustered into 269 candidate species that lack a representative genome in public databases. Actinobacteria represent the most abundant phylum, followed by Chloroflexi and Proteobacteria. The “Candidatus Jiangella antarctica” has been recorded across all samples, suggesting a high adaptation and specialization of this species to the harshest Antarctic desert environment. The majority of these new species belong to monophyletic bacterial clades that diverged from related taxa in a range from 1.2 billion to 410 Ma and are functionally distinct from known related taxa. Our findings significantly increase the repertoire of genomic data for several taxa and, to date, represent the first example of bacterial genomes recovered from endolithic communities. Their ancient origin seems to not be related to the geological history of the continent, rather they may represent evolutionary remnants of pristine clades that evolved across the Tonian glaciation. These unique genomic resources will underpin future studies on the structure, evolution, and function of these ecosystems at the edge of life.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decision-making based on Markov decision process in integrated artificial reasoning framework—Part I: Theory

This paper presents a decision-making framework based on an integrated artificial reasoning framework and Markov decision process (MDP). The integrated artificial reasoning framework provides a physics-based approach that converts system information into state transition models, and the analysis result will be represented by the transition probabilities that can be used with an MDP to find a traceable and explainable optimal pathway. A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is well suited for representing the structure of an MDP. The causality information among process variables (or among subsystems) is mathematically represented in a DBN by the conditional probabilities of the node’s states provided different probabilities of the parent node’s states. To define node states in a physically understandable manner, we used multilevel flow modeling (MFM). An MFM follows the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws and supports the selection of process variables that represent the system of interest so that causal relations among process variables are properly captured. An MFM-based DBN supports developing state transition models in an MDP to capture the effect of process variables of system having physical relations. The operators of the target system can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from component degradation or random failures. We analyzed a simplified exemplary system to illustrate an optimal operational policy using the suggested approach.

Markov decision process↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data for Microbial-Explicit Processes and Refined Perennial Plant Traits Improve Modeled Ecosystem Carbon Dynamics

Globally, soils hold approximately half of ecosystem carbon and can serve as a source or sink depending on climate, vegetation, management, and disturbance regimes. Understanding how soil carbon dynamics are influenced by these factors is essential to evaluate proposed natural climate solutions and policy regarding net ecosystem carbon balance. Soil microbes play a key role in both carbon fluxes and stabilization. However, biogeochemical models often do not specifically address microbial-explicit processes. Here, we incorporated microbial-explicit processes into the DayCent biogeochemical model to better represent large perennial grasses and mechanisms of soil carbon formation and stabilization. We also take advantage of recent model improvements to better represent perennial grass structural complexity and life-history traits. Specifically, this study focuses on: 1) a plant sub-model that represents perennial phenology and more refined plant chemistry with downstream implications for soil organic matter (SOM) cycling though litter inputs, 2) live and dead soil microbe pools that influence routing of carbon to physically protected and unprotected pools, 3) Michaelis-Menten kinetics rather than first-order kinetics in the soil decomposition calculations, and 4) feedbacks between decomposition and live microbial pools. We evaluated the performance of the plant sub-model and two SOM cycling sub-models, Michaelis-Menten (MM) and first-order (FO), using observations of net ecosystem production, ecosystem respiration, soil respiration, microbial biomass, and soil carbon from long-term bioenergy research plots in the mid-western United States. The MM sub-model represented seasonal dynamics of soil carbon fluxes better than the FO sub-model which consistently overestimated winter soil respiration. While both SOM sub-models were similarly calibrated to total, physically protected, and physically unprotected soil carbon measurements, the models differed in future soil carbon response to disturbance and climate, most notably in the protected pools. Adding microbial-explicit mechanisms of soil processes to ecosystem models will improve model predictions of ecosystem carbon balances but more data and research are necessary to validate disturbance and climate change responses and soil pool allocation.

Field Data↗
DOE OSTI2026

Oak Ridge National Laboratory Building Envelope Library (ORNOBEL)

The Oak Ridge National Laboratory Building Envelope Library (ORNOBEL) is a collection of dense exterior building-facade point clouds acquired using a survey-grade terrestrial laser scanner. Each file represents an individual facade from a building on the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) campus or in Knoxville, Tennessee, with an average point-cloud resolution of approximately 3 mm. The points in each facade are semantically labeled into three classes: (1) window/door, representing openings in the building envelope; (2) wall, representing planar opaque envelope surfaces; and (3) other, representing the remaining facade-adjacent elements, architectural features, and protrusions. ORNOBEL supports the development, training, and evaluation of advanced deep-learning methods for automated building-envelope segmentation, geometric reconstruction, and building information modeling (BIM).

Maldonado Puente, Bryan [ORNL] (ORCID:000000033880↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Fusion Nuclear Science Facility, the Critical Step in the Pathway to Fusion Energy

The proposed Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FNSF) represents the first facility to enter the complex fusion nuclear regime, and its technical mission and attributes are being developed. The FNSF represents one part of the fusion energy development pathway to the first commercial power plant with other major components being the pre-FNSF research and development, research in parallel with the FNSF, pre-DEMO research and development, and the demonstration power plant (DEMO). Finally, the Fusion Energy Systems Studies group is developing the technical basis for the FNSF in order to provide a better understanding of the demands on the fusion plasma and fusion nuclear science programs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Scholarly Context Adrift: Three out of Four URI References Lead to Changed Content

Increasingly, scholarly articles contain URI references to “web at large” resources including project web sites, scholarly wikis, ontologies, online debates, presentations, blogs, and videos. Authors reference such resources to provide essential context for the research they report on. A reader who visits a web at large resource by following a URI reference in an article, some time after its publication, is led to believe that the resource’s content is representative of what the author originally referenced. However, due to the dynamic nature of the web, that may very well not be the case. We reuse a dataset from a previous study in which several authors of this paper were involved, and investigate to what extent the textual content of web at large resources referenced in a vast collection of Science, Technology, and Medicine (STM) articles published between 1997 and 2012 has remained stable since the publication of the referencing article. We do so in a two-step approach that relies on various well-established similarity measures to compare textual content. In a first step, we use 19 web archives to find snapshots of referenced web at large resources that have textual content that is representative of the state of the resource around the time of publication of the referencing paper. We find that representative snapshots exist for about 30% of all URI references. In a second step, we compare the textual content of representative snapshots with that of their live web counterparts. We find that for over 75% of references the content has drifted away from what it was when referenced. These results raise significant concerns regarding the long term integrity of the web-based scholarly record and call for the deployment of techniques to combat these problems.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

NGEE Arctic Integrated Modeling (IM3): Improved snow-vegetation interaction

This data product represents the integration of new code capability for arctic tundra snow-vegetation-terrain interactions into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), through the E3SM Land Model (ELM) component. This code integration is the result of collaborative effort between the NGEE Arctic project and the E3SM project. The NGEE Arctic project developed a total of six Integrated Modeling (IM) modules informed by observations and experiments. New ELM capability represented by this data product (IM3) falls into three categories: 1) Downscaling from gridcell to topographic unit level when working through the existing coupler bypass code. 2) Four new parameters (taper, stocking, bendresist, and vegshape) have been added to ELM to allow for flexible definition of snow-vegetation interactions. 3) Vegshape and bendresist parameters are used to calculate the fraction of leaf area and/or stem area buried by snow for a given snow depth. This data record consists of a single document (pdf format) that describes the theoretical basis for the snow-vegetation-terrain interactions added to ELM, and describes the modifications made to the ELM code. The Methods section of this metadata record includes a link to the public E3SM code repository where the exact code modifications as integrated in E3SM can be accessed. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

Thornton, Peter E [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247595158)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Carbon Management Projects (CONNECT) Database and Explorer

Overview The Carbon Management Projects (CONNECT) Toolkit is an online exploratory visualization tool developed by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM) with support from other federal agencies such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). It provides a single point of access to authoritative information on federal agency investment in a portfolio of research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) projects that have been publicly announced to advance technologies for point source carbon capture, carbon dioxide removal, transport, storage, and conversion, collectively referred to as carbon management. The RD&D programs covered in this tool are authorized by annual congressional appropriations ("Base Program") and the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA). The tool also incorporates public information on other federal initiatives, such as the Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs, and public information released by other government agencies, such as the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) and Primacy States’ Underground Injection Control Class VI permits and EPA’s facility level greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Developed in a geographic information system, the tool organizes carbon management projects into five groups based on the primary technology that a project aims to advance, each visually represented as a digital layer ("carbon management project layer"). Only federally funded projects are included, which can be awarded projects that are completed or ongoing, or projects that have been selected but are currently under negotiation. Project information can be viewed in the map or in the attribute table below it when turned on. In the map view, each project is displayed at either its host site (for field work), where available, or its performer site (project lead's location, further explained in the table below). Host sites and performer sites are represented in distinct icons. Several reference layers offer additional public information on infrastructural and natural resource environment for carbon management. These reference layers, combined with multiple geographical basemaps, enable users to visualize the carbon management project layers in context. Carbon management project information will be updated monthly based on feedback and information availability. Carbon management project layers Point Source Carbon Capture (PSC) This layer contains DOE-funded projects focused on capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) from power plants or industrial facilities. Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) This layer contains DOE-funded projects focused on capturing CO2 from the atmosphere, including direct air capture (DAC) and DAC hubs, direct ocean capture, enhanced mineralization, and biomass carbon removal and storage. For projects with multiple host sites, each of the sites are displayed individually with the project cost and cost sharing information representing the total for the entire project. Carbon Transport This layer contains DOE- and DOT-funded projects focused on CO2 transport. The Transport Research and Development sublayer contains projects that do not involve physical infrastructure; the Proposed Transport Corridor sublayer contains projects for which either a route for the transport infrastructure has been proposed or a general area for the transport infrastructure has been identified. Carbon Storage This layer contains DOE-funded key projects focused on CO2 storage. For projects with multiple field-work sites, each of the sites are displayed individually on the map with the project cost and cost sharing information representing the overall total for the entire project. Carbon Conversion This layer contains DOE-funded projects focused on converting CO2 into economically valuable products. Reference layers The following layers provide additional information in the geographic proximity of carbon management projects. Users should reference the original sources for more details (weblinks provided below and in pop-up windows on the map). Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub and Facility These layers illustrate the approximate areas of the Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs announced by DOE's Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations (OCED) and the approximate locations of individual facilities that constitute the hubs (see "Where are the H2Hubs located?" on the webpage linked above). EPA Facility Level GHG Emissions (direct emitter) This layer shows direct CO2 emissions from stationary sources in 2022, using data extracted from EPA's Facility Level Information on GreenHouse gases Tool (FLIGHT). Captured and injected CO2 are not deducted from direct emitters’ total emissions. Contact EPA for additional details. Underground Injection Control Class VI permit/permit application This layer shows the locations of CO2 injection wells that are granted or in the process of applying for an Underground Injection Control Class VI permit by EPA or a Primacy State (currently Louisiana, North Dakota, and Wyoming). The URLs for the permits or permit applications are provided in the pop-up windows associated with the well locations. Contact EPA for additional details. Carbon Storage Resource This layer contains information on prospective CO2 storage resources in saline formations and oil and gas reservoirs provided by the National Carbon Sequestration Database and Geographic Information System (NATCARB) spatial database. Contact NETL for additional details. Existing CO2 pipeline This layer shows active CO2 pipelines based on information digitized from the map issued by the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA). Contact PHMSA for additional details.

Carbon Conversion↗
DOE OSTI2014

Discrete Element Modeling Results of Proppant Rearrangement in the Cooke Conductivity Cell

The study of propped fracture conductivity began in earnest with the development of the Cooke cell which later became part of the initial API standard. Subsequent developments included a patented multicell design to conduct 4 tests in a press at the same time. Other modifications have been used by various investigators. Recent studies by the Stim-Lab proppant consortium have indicated that the flow field across a Cooke proppant conductivity testing cell may not be uniform as initially believed which resulted is significantly different conductivity results. Post test analysis of low temperature metal alloy injections at the termination of proppant testing prior to the release of the applied stress suggest that higher flow is to be expected along the sides and top of the proppant pack than compared to the middle of the pack. To evaluate these experimental findings, a physics-based two-dimensional (2-D) discrete element model (DEM) was developed and applied to simulate proppant rearrangement during stress loading in the Cooke conductivity cell and the resulting porosity field. Analysis of these simulations are critical to understanding the impact of modification to the testing cell as well as understanding key proppant conductivity issues such as how these effects are manifested in proppant concentration testing results. The 2-D DEM model was constructed to represent a realistic cross section of the Cooke cell with a distribution of four material properties, three that represented the Cooke cell (steel, sandstone,square rings), and one representing the proppant. In principle, Cooke cell materials can be approximated as assemblies of independent discrete elements (particles) of various sizes and material properties that interact via cohesive interactions, repulsive forces, and frictional forces. The macroscopic behavior can then be modeled as the collective behavior of many interacting discrete elements. This DEM model is particularly suitable for modeling proppant mechanical interactions subjected to an applied stress, where the experimental cell is represented as a cohesive body composed of a large number of discrete elements, and proppants can be modeled as the individual discrete particles with various sizes (following the proppant size distribution-density function used in the test) that exhibit no cohesive strength between the particles. Initial 2-D DEM modeling results suggest that proppant rearrangement and non-uniform stress distribution across the proppant pack results in significant non-uniform porosity distribution across the Cooke cell. Larger porosities develop along the edge of the proppant pack beneath the square ring seal and would result in a disproportionate higher flow field along these edges as compared to the middle of the proppant pack. These results suggest that reported conductivity values determined by the Cooke cell may be biased to overestimate the actual conductivity of the proppant at high stresses and that modifications to the standard Cooke cell will affect the magnitude of this bias.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Integrating Solar PV in Utility System Operations

This study develops a systematic framework for estimating the increase in operating costs due to uncertainty and variability in renewable resources, uses the framework to quantify the integration costs associated with sub-hourly solar power variability and uncertainty, and shows how changes in system operations may affect these costs. Toward this end, we present a statistical method for estimating the required balancing reserves to maintain system reliability along with a model for commitment and dispatch of the portfolio of thermal and renewable resources at different stages of system operations. We estimate the costs of sub-hourly solar variability, short-term forecast errors, and day-ahead (DA) forecast errors as the difference in production costs between a case with “realistic” PV (i.e., subhourly solar variability and uncertainty are fully included in the modeling) and a case with “well behaved” PV (i.e., PV is assumed to have no sub-hourly variability and can be perfectly forecasted). In addition, we highlight current practices that allow utilities to compensate for the issues encountered at the sub-hourly time frame with increased levels of PV penetration. In this analysis we use the analytical framework to simulate utility operations with increasing deployment of PV in a case study of Arizona Public Service Company (APS), a utility in the southwestern United States. In our analysis, we focus on three processes that are important in understanding the management of PV variability and uncertainty in power system operations. First, we represent the decisions made the day before the operating day through a DA commitment model that relies on imperfect DA forecasts of load and wind as well as PV generation. Second, we represent the decisions made by schedulers in the operating day through hour-ahead (HA) scheduling. Peaking units can be committed or decommitted in the HA schedules and online units can be redispatched using forecasts that are improved relative to DA forecasts, but still imperfect. Finally, we represent decisions within the operating hour by schedulers and transmission system operators as real-time (RT) balancing. We simulate the DA and HA scheduling processes with a detailed unit-commitment (UC) and economic dispatch (ED) optimization model. This model creates a least-cost dispatch and commitment plan for the conventional generating units using forecasts and reserve requirements as inputs. We consider only the generation units and load of the utility in this analysis; we do not consider opportunities to trade power with neighboring utilities. We also do not consider provision of reserves from renewables or from demand-side options. We estimate dynamic reserve requirements in order to meet reliability requirements in the RT operations, considering the uncertainty and variability in load, solar PV, and wind resources. Balancing reserve requirements are based on the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile of 1-min deviations from the HA schedule in a previous year. We then simulate RT deployment of balancing reserves using a separate minute-by-minute simulation of deviations from the HA schedules in the operating year. In the simulations we assume that balancing reserves can be fully deployed in 10 min. The minute-by-minute deviations account for HA forecasting errors and the actual variability of the load, wind, and solar generation. Using these minute-by-minute deviations and deployment of balancing reserves, we evaluate the impact of PV on system reliability through the calculation of the standard reliability metric called Control Performance Standard 2 (CPS2). Broadly speaking, the CPS2 score measures the percentage of 10-min periods in which a balancing area is able to balance supply and demand within a specific threshold. Compliance with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) reliability standards requires that the CPS2 score must exceed 90% (i.e., the balancing area must maintain adequate balance for 90% of the 10-min periods). The combination of representing DA forecast errors in the DA commitments, using 1-min PV data to simulate RT balancing, and estimates of reliability performance through the CPS2 metric, all factors that are important to operating systems with increasing amounts of PV, makes this study unique in its scope.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Supplemental Reactor Physics Calculations and Analysis of ELF Mk 1A Fuel

These calculations supplement previous the reactor physics work evaluating the Enhanced Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) Fuel (ELF) Mk 1A element. This includes various additional comparisons between the current Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) and LEU along with further characterization of the performance of the ELF fuel. The excess reactivity to be held down at BOC for ELF Mk 1A fuel is estimated to be approximately $2.75 greater than with HEU for a typical cycle. This is a combined effect of the absence of burnable poison in the ELF fuel and the reduced neck shim worth in LEU fuel compared to HEU. Burnable poison rods were conceptualized for use in the small B positions containing Gd2O3 absorber. These were shown to provide $2.37 of negative reactivity at BOC and to burn out in less than half of a cycle. The worth of OSCCs is approximately the same between HEU and ELF Mk 1A (LEU) fuels in the representative loading evaluated. This was evaluated by rotating all banks simultaneously. The safety rod worth is relatively unchanged between HEU and ELF Mk 1A (LEU) fuels in the representative loading evaluated. However, this should be reevaluated with different loadings. Neutron flux, both total and fast (>1 MeV), is either the same or reduced upon changing from HEU to ELF Mk 1A (LEU) fuels in the representative loading evaluated. This is consistent with the well-established trend of lower neutron fluxes for a given power in LEU than HEU.The IPT loop void reactivity is approximately the same or less positive with ELF Mk 1A (LEU) fuel than HEU in the representative loading evaluated.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2015

NSR&D Program Fiscal Year (FY) 2015 Call for Proposals Mitigation of Seismic Risk at Nuclear Facilities using Seismic Isolation

Seismic isolation (SI) has the potential to drastically reduce seismic response of structures, systems, or components (SSCs) and therefore the risk associated with large seismic events (large seismic event could be defined as the design basis earthquake (DBE) and/or the beyond design basis earthquake (BDBE) depending on the site location). This would correspond to a potential increase in nuclear safety by minimizing the structural response and thus minimizing the risk of material release during large seismic events that have uncertainty associated with their magnitude and frequency. The national consensus standard America Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Standard 4, Seismic Analysis of Safety Related Nuclear Structures recently incorporated language and commentary for seismically isolating a large light water reactor or similar large nuclear structure. Some potential benefits of SI are: 1) substantially decoupling the SSC from the earthquake hazard thus decreasing risk of material release during large earthquakes, 2) cost savings for the facility and/or equipment, and 3) applicability to both nuclear (current and next generation) and high hazard non-nuclear facilities. Issue: To date no one has evaluated how the benefit of seismic risk reduction reduces cost to construct a nuclear facility. Objective: Use seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) to evaluate the reduction in seismic risk and estimate potential cost savings of seismic isolation of a generic nuclear facility. This project would leverage ongoing Idaho National Laboratory (INL) activities that are developing advanced (SPRA) methods using Nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction (NLSSI) analysis. Technical Approach: The proposed study is intended to obtain an estimate on the reduction in seismic risk and construction cost that might be achieved by seismically isolating a nuclear facility. The nuclear facility is a representative pressurized water reactor building nuclear power plant (NPP) structure. Figure 1: Project activities The study will consider a representative NPP reinforced concrete reactor building and representative plant safety system. This study will leverage existing research and development (R&D) activities at INL. Figure 1 shows the proposed study steps with the steps in blue representing activities already funded at INL and the steps in purple the activities that would be funded under this proposal. The following results will be documented: 1) Comparison of seismic risk for the non-seismically isolated (non-SI) and seismically isolated (SI) NPP, and 2) an estimate of construction cost savings when implementing SI at the site of the generic NPP.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Completion of Population of and Quality Assurance on the Nuclear Fuel Cycle Options Catalog.

An Evaluation and Screening team supporting the Fuel Cycle Technologies Program Office of the United States Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy is conducting an evaluation and screening of a comprehensive set of fuel cycle options. These options have been assigned to one of 40 evaluation groups, each of which has a representative fuel cycle option [Todosow 2013]. A Fuel Cycle Data Package System Datasheet has been prepared for each representative fuel cycle option to ensure that the technical information used in the evaluation is high-quality and traceable [Kim, et al., 2013]. The information contained in the Fuel Cycle Data Packages has been entered into the Nuclear Fuel Cycle Options Catalog at Sandia National Laboratories so that it is accessible by the evaluation and screening team and other interested parties. In addition, an independent team at Savannah River National Laboratory has verified that the information has been entered into the catalog correctly. This report documents that the 40 representative fuel cycle options have been entered into the Catalog, and that the data entered into the catalog for the 40 representative options has been entered correctly.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗