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Process-Based Cost Estimation for Ramjet/Scramjet Engines

Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

Singh, Brijendra↗

Aerospace Systems Design in NASA's Collaborative Engineering Environment

Past designs of complex aerospace systems involved an environment consisting of collocated design teams with project managers, technical discipline experts, and other experts (e.g. manufacturing and systems operations). These experts were generally qualified only on the basis of past design experience and typically had access to a limited set of integrated analysis tools. These environments provided less than desirable design fidelity, often lead to the inability of assessing critical programmatic and technical issues (e.g., cost risk, technical impacts), and generally derived a design that was not necessarily optimized across the entire system. The continually changing, modern aerospace industry demands systems design processes that involve the best talent available (no matter where it resides) and access to the best design and analysis tools. A solution to these demands involves a design environment referred to as collaborative engineering. The collaborative engineering environment evolving within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is a capability that enables the Agency's engineering infrastructure to interact and use the best state-of-the-art tools and data across organizational boundaries. Using collaborative engineering, the collocated team is replaced with an interactive team structure where the team members are geographically distributed and the best engineering talent can be applied to the design effort regardless of physical location. In addition, a more efficient, higher quality design product is delivered by bringing together the best engineering talent with more up-to-date design and analysis tools. These tools are focused on interactive, multidisciplinary design and analysis with emphasis on the complete life cycle of the system, and they include nontraditional, integrated tools for life cycle cost estimation and risk assessment. NASA has made substantial progress during the last two years in developing a collaborative engineering environment. NASA is planning to use this collaborative engineering infrastructure to provide better aerospace systems life cycle design and analysis, which includes analytical assessment of the technical and programmatic aspects of a system from "cradle to grave." This paper describes the recent NASA developments in the area of collaborative engineering, the benefits (realized and anticipated) of using the developed capability, and the long-term plans for implementing this capability across the Agency.

Monell, Donald W.↗

High Efficiency Quantum Well Waveguide Solar Cells and Methods for Constructing the Same

Photon absorption, and thus current generation, is hindered in conventional thin-film solar cell designs, including quantum well structures, by the limited path length of incident light passing vertically through the device. Optical scattering into lateral waveguide structures provides a physical mechanism to increase photocurrent generation through in-plane light trapping. However, the insertion of wells of high refractive index material with lower energy gap into the device structure often results in lower voltage operation, and hence lower photovoltaic power conversion efficiency. The voltage output of an InGaAs quantum well waveguide photovoltaic device can be increased by employing a III-V material structure with an extended wide band gap emitter heterojunction. Analysis of the light IV characteristics reveals that non-radiative recombination components of the underlying dark diode current have been reduced, exposing the limiting radiative recombination component and providing a pathway for realizing solar-electric conversion efficiency of 30% or more in single junction cells.

Welser, Roger E.↗

High Efficiency Quantum Well Waveguide Solar Cells and Methods for Constructing the Same

Photon absorption, and thus current generation, is hindered in conventional thin-film solar cell designs, including quantum well structures, by the limited path length of incident light passing vertically through the device. Optical scattering into lateral waveguide structures provides a physical mechanism to increase photocurrent generation through in-plane light trapping. However, the insertion of wells of high refractive index material with lower energy gap into the device structure often results in lower voltage operation, and hence lower photovoltaic power conversion efficiency. The voltage output of an InGaAs quantum well waveguide photovoltaic device can be increased by employing a III-V material structure with an extended wide band gap emitter heterojunction. Analysis of the light IV characteristics reveals that non-radiative recombination components of the underlying dark diode current have been reduced, exposing the limiting radiative recombination component and providing a pathway for realizing solar-electric conversion efficiency of 30% or more in single junction cells.

Welser, Roger E.↗

Presound: UAV Diagnostic System Enabled by Vibration-Based Machine Learning

A low-weight, inexpensive small unmanned aerial system (sUAS) that takes off, performs a mission, lands, and safely stows and recharges itself has myriad future applications ranging from agricultural imaging to last-mile package delivery. Likewise, Urban Air Mobility (UAM) systems will enable people to take air taxis from point to point in cities, rapidly moving commuters long distances without concern for road traffic and congestion. Fully electric aviation systems will be cleaner and quieter than ground transport. Cities could eliminate cars and buses, and convert roads to higher capacity bike and pedestrian throughways. Yet, for sUAS as well as UAM, system reliability and assurance is a limiting factor to deploying affordable autonomous flight systems. For this bright future of aviation to be realized, aircraft must be able to autonomously and accurately self-diagnose health issues both before takeoff and during flight. The GreenSight PreSound system is designed to identify defects on aircraft through intelligent analysis of vibration. It accomplishes this by measuring structural vibrations induced by the vehicle’s own propellers, and analyzing that data using a machine learning model that determines whether a defect is present. The PreSound system is designed to require no human oversight, and to operate across a wide array of vehicles through re-training of the model for each target aircraft. PreSound has been developed and seen limited early success using data collected from the GreenSight Dreamer sUAS, a 5lb quadrotor vehicle designed for aerial imaging applications. The final detection model, trained on data with props spinning at 50% throttle, achieves excellent performance with over 99% average accuracy in detecting blade damage using a single FFT vector input. It demonstrates the ability to generalize to new types of blade damage, correctly classifying a different type of blade damage with 98% accuracy. Full test pulses were classified with 100% accuracy, and in live testing, all sets of data during blade movement were classified accurately with over 95% confidence. When trained on in-flight data, the same model achieves an average accuracy of 85% in distinguishing between undamaged and blade-damaged states in flight. The authors believe that these accuracies show significant potential of this approach to expand unmanned flight safety, with significant potential benefits in accelerating Advanced Aerial Mobility (AAM) and UAM aviation applications.

UAS↗

Ergodic theory and visualization. II. Fourier mesochronic plots visualize (quasi)periodic sets

We present an application and analysis of a visualization method for measure-preserving dynamical systems introduced by I. Mezić and A. Banaszuk [Physica D 197, 101 (2004)], based on frequency analysis and Koopman operator theory. This extends our earlier work on visualization of ergodic partition [Z. Levnajić and I. Mezić, Chaos 20, 033114 (2010)]. Our method employs the concept of Fourier time average [I. Mezić and A. Banaszuk, Physica D 197, 101 (2004)], and is realized as a computational algorithms for visualization of periodic and quasi-periodic sets in the phase space. The complement of periodic phase space partition contains chaotic zone, and we show how to identify it. The range of method's applicability is illustrated using well-known Chirikov standard map, while its potential in illuminating higher-dimensional dynamics is presented by studying the Froeschlé map and the Extended Standard Map.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE/DOT Crude Oil Characterization Research Study, Task 2 Test Report on Evaluating Crude Oil Sampling and Analysis Methods

The Crude Oil Characterization Research Study is designed to evaluate whether crude oils currently transported in North America, including those produced from "tight" formations, exhibit physical or chemical properties that are distinct from conventional crudes, and how these properties associate with combustion hazards with may be realized during transportation and handling.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Method of resource-limited device and device class identification using system and function call tracing techniques, performance, and statistical analysis

Methods for cyber physical systems device classification are provided. A method can include receiving system and function calls and parameters and a device performance index from an unknown CPS device and a device performance index of similar class of CPS devices, calculating an autocorrelation value between different realizations of the system and function calls and parameters of the known CPS device, determining whether the autocorrelation value is greater than a threshold amount, and storing the system and function calls and parameters and the device performance characteristics of the known CPS device in the database. A method can also include calculating a correlation between system and function calls and parameters of an unknown CPS device and known CPS devices classes included in the database, as well as determining whether the maximum correlation is also greater than a threshold amount.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

CO 2 Sequestration and Enhanced Oil Recovery at Depleted Oil/Gas Reservoirs

This study presents a quantitative evaluation of the operational and technical risks of an active CO 2 -EOR project. A set of risk factor metrics is defined to post-process the Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for statistical analysis. The risk factors are expressed as measurable quantities that can be used to gain insight into project risk (e.g. environmental and economic risks) without the need to generate a rigorous consequence structure, which include (a) CO 2 injection rate, (b) net CO 2 injection rate, (c) cumulative CO 2 storage, (d) cumulative water injection, (e) oil production rate, (f) cumulative oil production, (g) cumulative CH 4 production, and (h) CO 2 breakthrough time. The Morrow reservoir at the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) site, Texas, is used as an example for studying the multi-scale statistical approach for CO 2 accounting and risk analysis. A set of geostatistical-based MC simulations of CO 2 -oil/gas-water flow and transport in the Morrow formation are conducted for evaluating the risk metrics. A response-surface-based economic model has been derived to calculate the CO 2 -EOR profitability for the FWU site with a current oil price, which suggests that approximately 31% of the 1000 realizations can be profitable. If government carbon-tax credits are available, or the oil price goes up or CO 2 capture and operating expenses reduce, more realizations would be profitable.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Modeling the Resilience of Nuclear Power Plant for Unexpected Reactor Trip

Resilience can be defined as the intrinsic ability of a system to adjust to its functioning prior to, during, or following changes and disturbances, so that it can sustain required operations under both expected and unexpected conditions. Resilience engineering is a relatively new paradigm for safety management that focuses on how to cope with complexity under pressure or disturbance to achieve success. A resilient system combines inherent human abilities with engineered safety features and organizational features in a controlled and flexible manner both in expected and in unexpected situations. The concept of resilience has been suggested to complement conventional safety analyses. Conventional safety analysis methods such as PSA have several limitations: 1) they primarily focus on technical dimension, 2) the analysis are linear and sequential, 3) they are dominated by static models, 4) they do not take a systemic view into account, and 5) they focus primarily on why accidents happen and not how success is achieved. The concept of resilience provides a more integrated view for the safety analysis in safety-critical systems, e.g., nuclear power plants. The concept of resilience in the organization of NPPs has been highlighted since the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. An IAEA report addresses that a resilient organization is one that quickly realizes deviation from normal operations and has the ability to make even the toughest and least popular decisions and to manage the margins in which it can maneuver. While traditional strategy to safety in NPPs is to identify what could go or has gone wrong, the concept of resilience is focused on what the organization does well and what it does to maintain its successful operation and to capitalize on those processes in the event of an unexpected situation. This study attempts to model the resilience of NPP dynamically, based on the operating experiences in Korean NPPs. First, this study revised the characterization of NPP. Then, a survey on the literature was conducted to identify the influences between the elements in the model of resilience in NPPs. These works provide a qualitative model for the resilience in NPPs. Then, this study reviewed 168 licensee events reports submitted to the Korean regulatory body since 2004 and quantified the relation between the attributes in the model by performing a Pearson correlation analysis. Finally, a few simulations using the System Dynamics were conducted to discuss which factors are most influencing the resilience. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Optimized Illuminance Operation-A Light-Driven Dilution Strategy to Improve Microalgae Biomass Productivity

Periodic dilution is a necessary operation to avoid light limitation due to self-shading as the culture grows dense. However, environmental conditions are constantly changing in outdoor cultivation systems, making it difficult to determine the optimal dilution rate. To address this challenge, this study evaluated a dilution approach based on light penetration to optimize illuminance (OptiLum) in the culture. Biomass concentration was controlled via sensor-feedback directed dilution to ensure that light reaching the bottom of the culture was maintained above the compensation intensity. Under replicated outdoor pond conditions, by keeping the entire culture within a net-positive photosynthetic zone, the OptiLum operation improved the biomass productivities of two top-performing strains, Picochlorum celeri and Tetraselmis striata, by 95 % and 86 %, respectively, compared to conventional semi-continuous batch cultivation. The dilution rate varied daily and was dynamically adjusted based on the light status within the culture, which is concurrently influenced by weather, culture density, and growth rate. The techno-economic analysis showed that the OptiLum operation could reduce biomass production cost by as much as 24 % and 33 % for P. celeri and T. striata, respectively, assuming a low-cost dewatering approach with initial gravity settling of biomass can be realized for both strains. However, a more costly two-stage dewatering strategy, comprising only membranes and centrifuges, may be necessary for non-settling strains, such as P. celeri, which would alternatively increase production costs by 23 % for the OptiLum case. The results demonstrated that the proposed OptiLum operation is a promising approach to improve biomass productivity and lower production cost via weather-responsive and self-adjusting dilution.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Performance of a high-sensitivity dedicated cardiac SPECT scanner for striatal uptake quantification in the brain based on analysis of projection data

Purpose: The authors have previously reported the advantages of high-sensitivity single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) systems for imaging structures located deep inside the brain. DaTscan (Isoflupane I-123) is a dopamine transporter (DaT) imaging agent that has shown potential for early detection of Parkinson disease (PD), as well as for monitoring progression of the disease. Realizing the full potential of DaTscan requires efficient estimation of striatal uptake from SPECT images. They have evaluated two SPECT systems, a conventional dual-head gamma camera with low-energy high-resolution collimators (conventional) and a dedicated high-sensitivity multidetector cardiac imaging system (dedicated) for imaging tasks related to PD. Methods: Cramer-Rao bounds (CRB) on precision of estimates of striatal and background activity concentrations were calculated from high-count, separate acquisitions of the compartments (right striata, left striata, background) of a striatal phantom. CRB on striatal and background activity concentration were calculated from essentially noise-free projection datasets, synthesized by scaling and summing the compartment projection datasets, for a range of total detected counts. They also calculated variances of estimates of specific-to-nonspecific binding ratios (BR) and asymmetry indices from these values using propagation of error analysis, as well as the precision of measuring changes in BR on the order of the average annual decline in early PD. Results: Under typical clinical conditions, the conventional camera detected 2 M counts while the dedicated camera detected 12 M counts. Assuming a normal BR of 5, the standard deviation of BR estimates was 0.042 and 0.021 for the conventional and dedicated system, respectively. For an 8% decrease to BR = 4.6, the signal-to-noise ratio were 6.8 (conventional) and 13.3 (dedicated); for a 5% decrease, they were 4.2 (conventional) and 8.3 (dedicated). Conclusions: This implies that PD can be detected earlier with the dedicated system than with the conventional system; therefore, earlier identification of PD progression should be possible with the high-sensitivity dedicated SPECT camera.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Effect of GLAD technique on optical properties of ZnS multilayer antireflection coatings

Highlights: • ZnS multi-layer antireflection coatings have been prepared by GLAD technique. • XRD analysis depicts that all the multi-layer samples are crystallized in cubic structure. • FESEM images confirmed the multi-layer and inclined formation of specimens. • Transmission increment and refractive index decrement obtained for the multi-layer samples. • Incredible impression of GLAD technique on multi-layer coatings is realized. - Abstract: In this work, we prepared Zinc sulfide (ZnS) multi-layer antireflection coatings applying glancing angle deposition (GLAD) technique by physical vapor deposition method. By comparing the structural and optical properties of the samples prepared at normal and inclined single layer coatings, salient effect of multi-layer coatings composed of normal and inclined layers are observed. Relative improvement in crystallinity of the GLAD produced films with respect to inclined single layer resulted from X-ray diffraction (XRD) studies. Despite high increment in average transmission, explicit reduction in refractive index of the multilayer specimens are obtained by Ultraviolet–visible spectroscopy (UV–VIS) analysis. Both the abovementioned changes are in the direction of improving the anti-reflectivity features.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Zirconium‐Based Metal–Organic Frameworks with Free Hydroxy Groups for Enhanced Perfluorooctanoic Acid Uptake in Water

Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) is a highly recalcitrant organic pollutant, and its bioaccumulation severely endangers human health. While various methods are developed for PFOA removal, the targeted design of adsorbents with high efficiency and reusability remains largely unexplored. Here, in this work, the rational design and synthesis of two novel zirconium‐based metal‒organic frameworks (MOFs) bearing free ortho ‐hydroxy sites, namely noninterpenetrated PCN‐1001 and twofold interpenetrated PCN‐1002, are presented. Single crystal analysis of the pure ligand reveals that intramolecular hydrogen bonding plays a pivotal role in directing the formation of MOFs with free hydroxy groups. Furthermore, the transformation from PCN‐1001 to PCN‐1002 is realized. Compared to PCN‐1001, PCN‐1002 displays higher chemical stability due to interpenetration, thereby demonstrating an exceptional PFOA adsorption capacity of up to 632 mg g −1 (1.53 mmol g −1 ), which is comparable to the reported record values. Moreover, PCN‐1002 shows rapid kinetics, high selectivity, and long‐life cycles in PFOA removal tests. Solid‐state nuclear magnetic resonance results and density functional theory calculations reveal that multiple hydrogen bonds between the free ortho ‐hydroxy sites and PFOA, along with Lewis acid‐base interaction, work collaboratively to enhance PFOA adsorption.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Observation of Quadratic (Charge-2) Weyl Point Splitting in Near-Infrared Photonic Crystals

Weyl points are point degeneracies that occur in momentum space of 3D periodic materials and are associated with a quantized topological charge. Here, the splitting of a quadratic (charge-2) Weyl point into two linear (charge-1) Weyl points in a 3D micro-printed photonic crystal is observed experimentally via Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy. Using a theoretical analysis rooted in symmetry arguments, it is shown that this splitting occurs along high-symmetry directions in the Brillouin zone. This micro-scale observation and control of Weyl points is important for realizing robust topological devices in the near-infrared.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Reactor and fuel cycle performance of light water reactor fuel with 235 U enrichments above 5%

Recent advances in nuclear fuel materials research, particularly on the topic of accident-tolerant fuels, have brought up potential opportunities for expanding the operating envelope of existing light water reactors. As many of the performance improvements offered by these technologies may be most fully realized by increasing fuel enrichment beyond the standard 5% limit, this paper examines the potential reactor performance and fuel cycle performance of low-enriched uranium oxide fueled light water reactors by generically considering pressurized water reactors with 235 U enrichment from 5 to 7%. Advanced cladding, including accident-tolerant cladding, has the potential to increase fuel burnup limits related to hydrogen in the cladding that coincide with those limits associated with end-of-life reactivity. Therefore, higher enrichment will be necessary in order to realize the higher fuel burnups. This work includes evaluation of the fuel cycle length, discharge burnup, reactivity coefficients, and fuel cycle performance, including radioactive waste and environmental impact metrics per unit energy generated. The analysis was performed using the evaluation metrics from the US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Fuel Cycle Evaluation and Screening Study. The reactor performance and safety analysis show that enrichments between 5 and 7% would have similar fuel temperature and moderator temperature coefficients. However, the soluble boron coefficient would decrease in magnitude, requiring more corrosive boric acid in the coolant or other methods of reactivity control during the fuel cycle. At these higher enrichments the maximum burnup at the rim of the fuel pellet would increase by almost a factor of two, which is expected to impact the formation of high-burnup structure in the fuel and the corresponding thermo-mechanical fuel properties. The fuel cycle performance assessment shows that increasing enrichment reduces the quantity of high-level waste disposed per unit energy generated, but it increases the natural resource requirements normalized to a gigawatt-electricity-per-year basis. Another impact is the slightly higher discharge burnup, resulting in somewhat different activity levels of the spent nuclear fuel and high-level waste radioactivity at 100 and 100,000 years after fuel discharge. The environmental impacts—including land use, water use, carbon emission, and radiological exposure—are of the same magnitude per unit energy generated. Finally, however, the impacts are distributed differently. Less than 5% enrichment has marginally more impact on the back-end of the fuel cycle, and greater than 5% enrichment has marginally more impact on the front-end of the fuel cycle. Ultimately, no neutronic or reactor safety hindrances to employing light water reactor fuel with enrichments greater than 5% are identified; given the achievable reactor performance benefits with advanced fuels, further practical exploration of increased enrichment fuel is recommended.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Cosmological forecasts for future galaxy surveys with the linear point standard ruler: Toward consistent BAO analyses far from a fiducial cosmology

The linear point (LP) standard ruler was identified as the basis of a purely geometric method for exploiting the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO). The LP exploits the BAO feature imprinted in the galaxy two-point correlation function to measure cosmological distances independent of any specific cosmological model. We forecast the expected precision of future and ongoing spectroscopic galaxy surveys to measure distances leveraging the linear point. We investigate the cosmological implications of our forecasted results. We focus in particular on a relevant working example: the detection of the late-time cosmic acceleration independent of other cosmological probes. Further, our findings show that, even within the Λ⁢CDM standard cosmological paradigm, estimated distances need to be reliable over a very wide parameter range in order to realize their maximum utility. This is particularly relevant if we aim to properly characterize cosmological tensions. The LP is a promising candidate approach to achieve this reliability. In contrast, widely employed procedures in BAO analysis estimate distances keeping fixed cosmological parameters to fiducial values close to cosmic-microwave-background constraints in flat-Λ⁢CDM. It is unclear whether they are purely geometric methods. Moreover, they rely on untested extrapolations to explore the parameter space away from those fiducial flat-Λ⁢CDM values. We recommend that all BAO methodologies be validated across the full range of models and parameters over which their results are quoted, first by means of linear predictions and then N -body simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗