System determination from noisy measurements.
Control system identification for noise corrupted input/output data, using algorithmic approach and iteration procedure
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Control system identification for noise corrupted input/output data, using algorithmic approach and iteration procedure
Fortran analytic solution of transport equations by random sampling in radiation shielding design and analysis of nuclear rocket systems
Method has been developed to improve the lower bound of the first excursion probability that can apply to the problem with either constant or time-dependent barriers. The method requires knowledge of the joint density function of the random process at two arbitrary instants.
Statistical method estimates signal-to-noise ratios in an observed random voltage, such as the output of a telemetry receiver. Signals from a distant transmitting source, overlaid by noise signals, are monitored continuously.
Holography is a lensless imaging technique which can be applied to measure static or dynamic displacements of structures. Conventional holography cannot be readily applied to measure vibration modes of high-temperature structures, due to difficulties caused by thermal convection currents. The present report discusses the use of pulsed differential holography, which is a technique for recording structural motions in the presence of random fluctuations such as turbulence. An analysis of the differential method is presented, and demonstration experiments were conducted using heated stainless steel plates. Vibration modes were successfully recorded for the heated plates at temperatures of 1000, 1600, and 2000 F. The technique appears promising for such future measurments as vibrations of the space shuttle TPS panels or recording flutter of aeroelastic models in a wind-tunnel.
A land use map of a five county area in North Alabama was generated from LANDSAT data using a supervised classification algorithm. There was good overall agreement between the land use designated and known conditions, but there were also obvious discrepancies. In ground checking the map, two types of errors were encountered - shift and misclassification - and a method was developed to eliminate or greatly reduce the errors. Randomly selected study areas containing 2,525 pixels were analyzed. Overall, 76.3 percent of the pixels were correctly classified. A contingency coefficient of correlation was calculated to be 0.7 which is significant at the alpha = 0.01 level. The land use maps generated by computers from LANDSAT data are useful for overall land use by regional agencies. However, care must be used when making detailed analysis of small areas. The procedure used for conducting the ground truth study together with data from representative study areas is presented.
The Mariner Jupiter/Saturn (MJS) spacecraft was subjected to the traditional multipoint sine dwell (MPSD) modal test using 111 accelerometer channels, and also to single-point random (SPR) testing using 26 accelerometer channels, and the two methods are compared according to cost, schedule, and technical criteria. A measure of comparison between the systems was devised in terms of the cumulative difference in the kinetic energy distribution of the common accelerometers. The SPR and MPSD method show acceptable agreement with respect to frequencies and mode damping. The merit of the SPR method is that the excitation points are minimized and the test article can be committed to other uses while data analysis is performed. The MPSD approach allows validity of the data to be determined as the test progresses. Costs are about the same for the two methods.
An equation is derived to compute the amount of diffuse light reflected by a particulate surface, such as on Mars or an asteroid. The method traces the paths of rays within an ensemble of randomly shaped grains and finds the eventual probability of emission. The amount of diffuse, unpolarized emitted light is obtained in terms of the real index of refraction, the imaginary index, and the average diameter of particles making up the surface. The equation is used to compute the empirical rule for obtaining the planetary albedo from the slope of its polarization curve. Accuracy of the equation, estimated at + or - 4%, seems justified because of quantitative agreement with experimental measures of the empirical rule. It is also shown that the equation can be applied to bubble-enclosing surfaces such as volcanic foams. Results for the indices of the moon, Mars, Io, and Europa are obtained and compared with other data.
Suppose that a system is undergoing a sequence of trials and design changes in an effort to find and eliminate design flaws in the system. Specifically, suppose that each trial is classified as an assignable cause failure (if the failure is due to one or more design flaws), an inherent failure (if the failure is not due to a design flaw), or a success. After each assignable cause failure, the design flaws that caused the failure are removed. In the case of statistically independent and identical design flaws, a probabilistic model is developed to describe this debugging process. Explicit expressions are obtained for the distributions of the important random variables and for the important measures of reliability. Statistical methods are developed for estimating the parameters of the model from accumulated test data.
To demonstrate the high reliability of fault-tolerant computing systems, experimental testing can be performed by injecting faults into their hardware and observing the times needed to detect and isolate failed components and reconfigure the good components. Coverage, a parameter measuring continued system success, is the probability that recovery occurs before other, perhaps catastrophic, component failures occur. Methods of estimating coverage are given for the case of randomly selecting a subset of the pins or chips for testing. Pin-level samples of times to recovery are treated by the Type I censoring model often used in life testing.
Models of stratospheric photochemistry are generally tested by comparing their predictions for the composition of the present atmosphere with measurements of species concentrations. These models are then used to make predictions of the atmospheric sensitivity to perturbations. Here the problem of the sensitivity of such a model to chlorine perturbations ranging from the present influx of chlorine-containing compounds to several times that influx is addressed. The effects of uncertainties in input parameters, including reaction rate coefficients, cross sections, solar fluxes, and boundary conditions, are evaluated using a Monte Carlo method in which the values of the input parameters are randomly selected. The results are probability distributions for present atmosheric concentrations and for calculated perturbations due to chlorine from fluorocarbons. For more than 300 Monte Carlo runs the calculated ozone perturbation for continued emission of fluorocarbons at today's rates had a mean value of -6.2 percent, with a 1-sigma width of 5.5 percent. Using the same runs but only allowing the cases in which the calculated present atmosphere values of NO, NO2, and ClO at 25 km altitude fell within the range of measurements yielded a mean ozone depletion of -3 percent, with a 1-sigma deviation of 2.2 percent. The model showed a nonlinear behavior as a function of added fluorocarbons. The mean of the Monte Carlo runs was less nonlinear than the model run using mean value of the input parameters.
VAPEPS (VibroAcoustic Payload Environment Prediction System) is a computer program used to predict the vibroacoustic response of a structure. An alternate VAPEPS modeling technique, the Modified NASA Lewis Method, is an improvement for modeling unreinforced mass loaded honeycomb panels. The Modified NASA Lewis Method prediction is compared to the standard ASMS VAPEPS prediction, and the acoustic test data for three spacecraft panels. An analytical method of computing variance is presented and used to compute 95 percent confidence levels. These levels are compared to the standard VAPEPS confidence levels and to the envelope of the test data. As a result of using the new methodology suggested in the paper, both the mean prediction and the 95 percent confidence level prediction agree well with the test data in both spectral shape and magnitude. Therefore, the Modified NASA Lewis Method prediction methodology may be used to define more realistic random vibration test levels.
Several different models for predicting coverage in a fault-tolerant system, including models for permanent, intermittent, and transient errors, are discussed. Markov, semi-Markov, nonhomogeneous Markov, and extended stochastic Petri net models for computing coverage are developed. Two types of events that interfere with recovery are examined; and methods for modeling such events, whether they are deterministic or random, are given. The sensitivity of system reliability/availability to the coverage parameter and the sensitivity of the coverage parameter to various error-handling strategies are investigated. It is found that a policy of attempting transient recovery upon detection of an error can actually increase the unreliability of the system. This result is true if the error detectability is not nearly perfect, so that the risk of producing an undetectable error is greater than the benefit gained by not discarding the component.
The service life of aircraft structural components undergoing random stress cycling was analyzed by the application of fracture mechanics. The initial crack sizes at the critical stress points for the fatigue crack growth analysis were established through proof load tests. The fatigue crack growth rates for random stress cycles were calculated using the half-cycle method. A new equation was developed for calculating the number of remaining flights for the structural components. The number of remaining flights predicted by the new equation is much lower than that predicted by the conventional equation. This report describes the application of fracture mechanics and the half-cycle method to calculate the number of remaining flights for aircraft structural components.
VAPEPS (vibroAcoustic Payload Environment Prediction System) is a computer program used to predict the vibroacoustic response of a structure. An alternate VAPEPS modeling technique, the Modified NASA Lewis Method, is an improvement for modeling unreinforced mass loaded honeycomb panels. The Modified NASA Lewis Method prediction is compared to the standard ASMS VAPEPS prediction, and the acoustic test data for three spacecraft panels. An analytical method of computing variance is presented and used to compute 95 percent confidence levels. These levels are compared to the standard VAPEPS confidence levels and to the envelope of the test data. As a result of using the new methodology suggested in the paper, both the mean prediction and the 95 percent confidence level prediction agree well with the test data in both spectral shape and magnitude. Therefore, the Modified NASA Lewis Method prediction methodology may be used to define more realistic random vibration test levels.
The original scientific objectives of this grant were to: (1) characterize the seasonal cycles and interannual variability for phytoplankton concentrations and sea surface temperature (SST) in the California Current using satellite data; and (2) to explore the spatial and temporal relationship between these variables and surface wind forcing. An additional methodological objective was to develop statistical methods for forming mean fields, which minimize the effects of random data gaps and errors in the irregularly sampled CZCS (Coastal Zone Color Scanner) and AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) satellite data. A final task was to evaluate the level of uncertainty in the wind fields used for the statistical analysis. Funding in the first year included part of the cost of an image processing system to enable this and other projects to process and analyze satellite data. This report consists of summaries of the major projects carried out with all or partial support from this grant. The appendices include a list of papers and professional presentations supported by the grant, as well as reprints of the major papers and reports.
This viewgraph presentation provides an overview of a project to develop a computer program which integrates data analysis and test procedures. The software application aims to propose a new perspective to traditional mechanical analysis and test procedures and to integrate pre-test and test analysis calculation methods. The program also should also be able to be used in portable devices and allows for the 'quasi-real time' analysis of data sent by electronic means. Test methods reviewed during this presentation include: shaker swept sine and random tests, shaker shock mode tests, shaker base driven model survey tests and acoustic tests.
This study was undertaken to assess the influence of gravity on the distribution of pulmonary blood flow (PBF) using increased inertial force as a perturbation. PBF was studied in unanesthetized swine exposed to -Gx (dorsal-to-ventral direction, prone position), where G is the magnitude of the force of gravity at the surface of the Earth, on the Armstrong Laboratory Centrifuge at Brooks Air Force Base. PBF was measured using 15-micron fluorescent microspheres, a method with markedly enhanced spatial resolution. Each animal was exposed randomly to -1, -2, and -3 Gx. Pulmonary vascular pressures, cardiac output, heart rate, arterial blood gases, and PBF distribution were measured at each G level. Heterogeneity of PBF distribution as measured by the coefficient of variation of PBF distribution increased from 0.38 +/- 0.05 to 0.55 +/- 0.11 to 0.72 +/- 0.16 at -1, -2, and -3 Gx, respectively. At -1 Gx, PBF was greatest in the ventral and cranial and lowest in the dorsal and caudal regions of the lung. With increased -Gx, this gradient was augmented in both directions. Extrapolation of these values to 0 G predicts a slight dorsal (nondependent) region dominance of PBF and a coefficient of variation of 0.22 in microgravity. Analysis of variance revealed that a fixed component (vascular structure) accounted for 81% and nonstructure components (including gravity) accounted for the remaining 19% of the PBF variance across the entire experiment (all 3 gravitational levels). The results are inconsistent with the predictions of the zone model.