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DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic feasibility of borehole thermal energy storage system connected to geothermal heat pumps for seasonal heating load of two buildings in Fairbanks, Alaska

Borehole thermal energy storage (BTES) is an effective solution for managing imbalanced heating and cooling loads in cold regions. This study evaluated the long-term feasibility of a BTES system in the Fairbanks area, Alaska, through building energy modeling, resource characterization, and numerical modeling. The system was designed to store waste heat from a nearby coal power plant during summer and provide thermal energy during winter to geothermal heat pumps supplying heating loads in two buildings. Heating load profiles were modeled for the buildings using EnergyPlus, and the results indicated the annual heating load was 5.6 times greater than the cooling load. 40 borehole heat exchangers were pre-designed approximately 100 m away from the two buildings in terms of land availability and regulatorily optimized depth. The 20-year performance of the designed BTES system under two operational scenarios—one with a 5-year preheating period and one without—was numerically modeled using subsurface temperature and properties characterized through the literature review and thermal response tests. Both scenarios demonstrated that the BTES has the capacity to fully cover the heating loads in the two buildings throughout the 20-year lifetime. Production temperatures at central wells were 33 % higher on average than at outer wells in both scenarios. The 5-year preheating period increased subsurface and extraction temperatures, and correspondingly annual average and total thermal energy production was higher for 8 years than in the scenario without the preheating period. These results highlight the long-term reliability and sustainability of the BTES system in meeting heating demands over its lifetime, with the preheating period offering potential performance improvements. Implementing the BTES system in cold regions with high heating demand, such as Fairbanks, Alaska, could provide a long-term, sustainable energy solution for managing imbalanced heating and cooling loads.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Joint Optimization of Well Completions and Controls for CO 2 Enhanced Oil Recovery and Storage

CO 2 storage through CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is considered as one of the technologies to help promote larger scale deployment of CO 2 storage because of associated economic benefits through oil recovery, 45Q tax credits and the utilization of existing infrastructure. The objective of this study is to demonstrate how optimal reservoir management and operation strategies (including well completions and controls) can be used to optimize both CO 2 storage and oil recovery. The optimization problem was focused on jointly estimating the well completions (i.e., fraction of injection/production well perforations in each reservoir layer) and CO 2 injection/oil production controls that maximize the net present value (NPV) in a CO 2 EOR and storage operation. We utilized the newly developed StoSAG algorithm, one of the most efficient optimization algorithms in the reservoir management community, to solve the optimization problem. The performance of joint optimization approach was compared with the performance of well control only optimization approach. In addition, the performance of co-optimization of CO 2 storage and oil recovery approach was compared with the performances of maximization of only CO 2 storage and maximization of only oil recovery approaches. The optimization results showed that a joint optimization of well completions and well controls can achieve an 8.84% higher final NPV than the one obtained from the optimization of only well controls. It was observed that the NPV incremental for joint optimization is mainly due to the fact that the optimal well completions and controls approach results in efficient CO 2 storage and oil production from different reservoir layers depending on the differences in individual layer properties. Comparison of co-optimization (i.e., maximization of NPV) and maximization of only CO 2 storage or only oil recovery showed that the co-optimization and maximization of only oil recovery result in significantly higher final NPV than that obtained through maximization of only CO 2 storage approach while maximization of only CO 2 storage can achieve significantly higher CO 2 storage in the reservoir compared to the other two scenarios. The similar results for co-optimization and maximization of oil production are obtained because of the difference in oil revenue compared to CO 2 storage tax credit. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study in oil/gas industry and CO 2 storage community to perform joint optimization of well completions and well controls in the fields. We expect that the proposed optimization framework will be a useful and efficient tool for field engineers to optimally manage CO 2 EOR projects to maximize revenue through oil recovery as well as CO 2 storage by taking advantage of the new 45Q tax law.

Artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2024

Manufacture and testing of biomass-derivable thermosets for wind blade recycling

Wind energy is helping to decarbonize the electrical grid, but wind blades are not recyclable, and current end-of-life management strategies are not sustainable. Here, to address the material recyclability challenges in sustainable energy infrastructure, we introduce scalable biomass-derivable polyester covalent adaptable networks and corresponding fiber-reinforced composites for recyclable wind blade fabrication. Through experimental and computational studies, including vacuum-assisted resin-transfer molding of a 9-meter wind blade prototype, we demonstrate drop-in technological readiness of this material with existing manufacture techniques, superior properties relative to incumbent materials, and practical end-of-life chemical recyclability. Most notable is the counterintuitive creep suppression, outperforming industry state-of-the-art thermosets despite the dynamic cross-link topology. Overall, this report details the many facets of wind blade manufacture, encompassing chemistry, engineering, safety, mechanical analyses, weathering, and chemical recyclability, enabling a realistic path toward biomass-derivable, recyclable wind blades.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Calculating topological properties of artificial graphene in B-field

SAND2025-03258O Calculating topological properties of artificial graphene in B-field is a user-friendly tool designed to analyze artificial graphene systems influenced by magnetic fields. It helps researchers understand the unique properties of these materials by calculating the local Chern marker, a key indicator of their behavior. With just one file, this software runs easily on any device with Matlab, making it accessible for scientists and engineers. It provides valuable insights into the electronic characteristics of artificial graphene, which supports advancements in material science and technology, paving the way for innovative applications in electronics and beyond. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Spataru, Dan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Liver↗

DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced Atmospheric Research at the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) (Final Report)

The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) was an international scientific expedition into the central Arctic sea ice to study the changing atmosphere-ice-ocean system and its key physical, chemical, and biological processes in a way that will support improved understanding and modeling of Arctic climate. The US Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Research Measurement (ARM) Program operated its second ARM Mobile Facility (AMF2) as a major contribution to the expedition, and the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program supported this project to maximize the success of DOE’s involvement in MOSAiC. This project has enabled the successful collection of data through support of field operations plans, in-field operational implementation, oversight of real-time data quality, and representing DOE’s interests within the broader international MOSAiC endeavor. The project has promoted scientific research by facilitating and leading a number of efforts to develop value-added products that will support research, including products related to aerosol properties, trace gases, cloud properties, snowfall, the surface energy budget, and a merged product designed for model assessment. These products and related analyses have also contributed to numerous scientific publications on related themes as well as direct model evaluation. Lastly, the project has engaged in a great deal of communication and outreach activities that help to publicize and promote both MOSAiC and DOE’s specific contribution to a broad audience that includes the scientific community, program management, policy makers, and the general public.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Look At Topics and Topic Clusters for DOE Laboratories, 1996 - 2021 [Slides]

Beginning in 2018, Elsevier through its Scopus database introduced topics to further refine its classification of publications: Previous classification schemes used concepts such as subject areas, e.g., physics and astronomy, chemistry, computer science, etc.; Topics, in contrast, are much more granular. There are over 96,000 and their titles/contents are very specific, e.g., “Multilayers; Interfaces (materials); Individual layer." Elsevier topic clusters or Clarivate citation topics represent good approaches to examining an institution’s scientific productivity areas. These approaches have the granularity that is not present in the previous categorization approaches used by these databases. The Elsevier topic clusters for the DOE Laboratories do not appear to vary that much over the 1996 – 2021 period. In some cases (ANL, LBNL, LANL, ORNL, and PNNL), there were over 1000 topic clusters at these Laboratories, but a consistent set formed the core of the publication activity. Diversity is viewed as a desirable property of a research portfolio. Examining the balance component of the DOE laboratories, the spread is uneven or not diverse. This may be due to the missions of these laboratories. The balance of a single university was unequal too.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

NASA NTRS2004

Hyperion Studies Of Crop Stress In Mexico

Satellite-based measurements of crop stress could provide much needed information for cropland management, especially in developing countries where other precision agriculture technologies are too expensive (Pierce and Nowak 1999; Robert 2002). For example, detection of areas that are nitrogen deficient or water stressed could guide fertilizer and water management decisions for all farmers within the swath of the satellite. Several approaches have been proposed to quantify canopy nutrient or water content based on spectral reflectance, most of which involve combinations of reflectance in the form of vegetation indices. While these indices are designed to maximize sensitivity to leaf chemistry, variations in other aspects of plant canopies may significantly impact remotely sensed reflectance. These confounding factors include variations in canopy structural properties (e.g., leaf area index, leaf angle distribution) as well as the extent of canopy cover, which determines the amount of exposed bare soil within a single pixel. In order to assess the utility of spectral indices for monitoring crop stress, it is therefore not only necessary to establish relationships at the leaf level, but also to test the relative importance of variations in other canopy attributes at the spatial scale of the remote sensing measurement. In this context, the relative importance of a given attribute will depend on (1) the sensitivity of the reflectance index to variation in the attribute and (2) the degree to which the attribute varies spatially and temporally.

Lobell, David B.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Parametric study of solid-solid translucent phase change materials in building windows

Thermal energy storage and solar radiation management are crucial to improve the sustainability and energy efficiency of buildings. Compared with the implementation of phase change materials (PCMs) in opaque components, the energy saving potential of incorporating PCMs in transparent glazing windows is much less studied and not well understood. Here we present a comprehensive parametric study of novel PCM windows for building energy saving with a focus on optimizing and quantitatively distinguishing the contributions from the optical and thermal properties of the PCM, which is particularly useful for the design of solid-solid PCM windows. We investigate a reference commercial office building using EnergyPlus by developing an equivalent model of our PCM window that is compatible with EnergyPlus's modeling capabilities. Compared with a clear-clear double-pane window, the integration of 3 mm solid-solid PCMs with optimal properties in warm, mixed, and cold climates can respectively save up to 17.2%, 14.0%, and 5.8% energy for the HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) system, and 9.4%, 6.7%, and 3.2% energy for the whole building. We also demonstrate that these energy savings are most sensitive to the solar absorptance of PCMs for all three climates. The optimal transition temperature varies with climate and is related to the climate and solar radiation heat gain. Other issues are also briefly discussed, such as hysteresis, window orientations, and the effect of interior lighting. Finally, although the optimal PCM windows show energy saving performance comparable with low-emissivity windows, the PCM windows provide a unique advantage in terms of shifting HVAC loads which can provide benefits to the electrical grid.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of the energy balance of chemical looping combustion of solid fuels using CuO-based oxygen carriers

Chemical looping combustion (CLC) can inherently capture the CO2 generated during thermal energy production. When using CuO-based oxygen carriers, the reactions in both the fuel reactor (FR) and air reactor (AR) are exothermic, facilitating autothermal operation. To prevent the oxygen carrier from becoming agglomerated while ensuring a sufficient oxygen release rate, it is necessary to predict the FR temperature and remove an appropriate amount of heat from the AR when burning high-rank fuels. Here in this work, the energy balance of a CuO-based CLC system firing various solid fuels (biomass, coal, and petroleum coke) was investigated by establishing a thermodynamic model using FactSage. The energy distribution characteristics of the FR were quantified based on a virtual five-step thermodynamic sequence. The effects of fuel properties, oxygen carrier properties, and operating conditions on the energy balance were evaluated systematically. The results indicate that the temperature difference between the FR and AR is not very sensitive to the heating value of the fuel, while the CuO loading of the oxygen carrier, the heat capacity of the support material, and the flow rate of the fluidizing gas have significant impact. The insights obtained in this work will help improve the design and heat management of CLC.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling

Abstract During the last four decades, global warming has statistically significant intensified extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States (defined here as the region covering Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky), leading to increased risks to human life, property, and infrastructure. To enable climate change adaptation and resilience across various economic and social sectors in this region, updated information about future climate changes, specifically at finer spatial scales, is essential. Leveraging a new 150‐year dynamical downscaling data set at convection‐permitting resolution, this study introduces a framework to construct the projected future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves of heavy precipitation, which are prominent tools for infrastructure design and water resources management. This framework generates IDF curves at both sub‐daily and multi‐day duration utilizing hourly in situ observations as well as quantile‐based statistical techniques in bias‐correction and return levels selection. The assumption of non‐stationarity in the distribution parameter fitting process is also implemented in this workflow. Compared to historical IDF curves for 1980–2022, future projected IDF curves for 2058–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15% and 25%, respectively, across 74 stations, considering both annual and seasonal timescales. Future projections suggest that extreme precipitation events may become more severe across six investigated return periods, with longer return periods showing a greater increase. The frequency of future extreme precipitation events in the Midwest region is also projected to double. Furthermore, current results reveal spatial heterogeneity of future trends across stations owing to the high‐resolution input data set. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the evolving nature of extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States under a changing climate. By leveraging a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling data set, we construct projected intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves for future extreme rainfall events. These curves serve as vital tools for infrastructure planning and water resource management. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the region. Future projected IDF curves for the late century indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15%–25% compared to historical values. Moreover, the frequency of such events is expected to double. Spatial heterogeneity in future trends is observed across different stations within the Midwest, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution modeling in capturing localized climate variability. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the region. Key Points This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection‐permitting modeling data set The current IDF construction workflow reproduces well the historical observed IDF 30 curves in summer months with median relative errors of 2.4% among 74 stations and 6 investigated durations The projected IDF curves show diverse future trends of extreme precipitation across stations, with intensity increases of approximately 15% and 25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, and a doubling of frequency on average

Nguyen, Trung↗

DOE OSTI2023

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-xTR NEON Treehaven (TREE)

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xTR NEON Treehaven (TREE). This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xTR NEON Treehaven (TREE) produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Treehaven, situated between Rhinelander and Tomahawk, WI, is one of two relocatable sites located in NEON’s Great Lakes Domain. The Treehaven property spans 1400 acres and is owned and operated by the University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point (UWSP), College of Natural Resources. UWSP uses the property and conference center for summer field techniques courses but welcomes other educators, researchers, and the public to use and enjoy their forests, trails, and facility.

Network), NEON (National Ecological Observatory↗

NASA NTRS2002

An Investigation of the Influence of Urban Areas on Rainfall Using the TRMM Satellite and a Cloud-Mesoscale Model

A recent paper by Shepherd and Pierce (in press at Journal of Applied Meteorology) used rainfall data from the Precipitation Radar on NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) satellite to identify warm season rainfall anomalies downwind of major urban areas. Data (PR) were employed to identify warm season rainfall (1998-2000) patterns around Atlanta, Montgomery, Nashville, San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas. Results reveal an average increase of approx. 28% in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 kilometers downwind of the metropolis with a modest increase of 5.6% over the metropolis. Portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. The percentage changes are relative to an upwind control area. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates in the downwind impact area exceeded the mean value in the upwind control area by 48%-116%. The maximum value was generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. Results are consistent with METROMEX studies of St. Louis almost two decades ago and with more recent studies near Atlanta. A convective-mesoscale model with extensive land-surface processes is currently being employed to (a) determine if an urban heat island (UHI) thermal perturbation can induce a dynamic response to affect rainfall processes and (b) quantify the impact of the following three factors on the evolution of rainfall: (1) urban surface roughness, (2) magnitude of the UHI temperature anomaly, and (3) physical size of the UHI temperature anomaly. The sensitivity experiments are achieved by inserting a slab of land with urban properties (e.g. roughness length, albedo, thermal character) within a rural surface environment and varying the appropriate lower boundary condition parameters. The study will discuss the feasibility of utilizing satellite-based rainfall estimates for examining rainfall modification by urban areas on global scales and over longer time periods. The talk also introduces very preliminary results from the modeling component of the study. Such research has implications for weather forecasting, urban planning, water resource management, and understanding human impact on the environment and climate.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Novel Approach to Simulate Realistic Concrete Microstructures under Irradiation

The concrete biological shield of light water reactors is exposed to high neutron and gamma irradiation doses in the long term. Irradiation deteriorates the physical and mechanical properties of concrete. Such effects need to be investigated to predict the concrete’s performance in the event of a lifetime extension of a nuclear power plant. This work combines high-resolution characterization techniques with fast-Fourier transform (FFT)-based 2-D simulations to evaluate the radiation-induced volumetric expansion (RIVE) and damage in concrete microstructures under neutron irradiation. Two concrete microstructures from samples provided by the Japan Concrete Aging Management Program (JCAMP) were characterized using micro x-ray fluorescence (mXRF) to obtain elemental intensity maps, and energy-dispersive x-ray spectroscopy to complement mXRF with local elemental information for Na. Minerals and cement paste are then identified based on the elemental composition to produce high-resolution phase maps, resulting in a more accurate representation of the microstructures compared to previous work. Simulations of radiation-induced volumetric expansion (RIVE), creep, and damage in JCAMP concrete use the fast Fourier transform (FFT)-based code Microstructure Oriented Scientific Analysis of Irradiated Concrete (MOSAIC) combined with the irradiated minerals, aggregates, and concrete (IMAC) database, which contains mineral-specific RIVE models. Overall, the simulation results are in fair agreement with experimental data.

Cheniour, Amani↗

DOE OSTI2021

Stellarators as a fast path to fusion

Herein this paper is focused on three points: (1) overcoming obstacles to tokamak power plants may require a configuration modification as large as that of a stellarator. (2) The demonstrated reliability of the computational design of stellarators should change fusion strategy. (3) Deployment of carbon-free energy sources is mandated by the thirty-year doubling of carbon dioxide emissions. Carbon-free energy options must be developed and fully deployed within a few doubling times. Unit size and cost of electricity are only relevant in comparison to alternative worldwide energy solutions. Intermittency, site specificity, waste management, and nuclear proliferation make fusion attractive as the basis for a carbon-free energy system compared to the alternatives. Nonetheless, fusion is not an option for deployment until a power plant has successfully operated. A critical element in a minimal time and risk program is the use of computational design as opposed to just extrapolation. Only the stellarator has an empirical demonstration of the reliable computational design through large changes in configuration properties and scale. The computational design of stellarators should proceed while the inventions necessary for a more tokamak-like power plant are sought. The cost of computational design is extremely small, but adequate time is required for the development of ideas that maximize attractiveness and minimize risk. Rapid power-plant construction without many intermediate steps may seem risky, but the price is small compared to the cost of trillions of dollars for each year's delay in addressing carbon-dioxide emissions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1993

Automation and hypermedia technology applications

This paper represents a progress report on HyLite (Hypermedia Library technology): a research and development activity to produce a versatile system as part of NASA's technology thrusts in automation, information sciences, and communications. HyLite can be used as a system or tool to facilitate the creation and maintenance of large distributed electronic libraries. The contents of such a library may be software components, hardware parts or designs, scientific data sets or databases, configuration management information, etc. Proliferation of computer use has made the diversity and quantity of information too large for any single user to sort, process, and utilize effectively. In response to this information deluge, we have created HyLite to enable the user to process relevant information into a more efficient organization for presentation, retrieval, and readability. To accomplish this end, we have incorporated various AI techniques into the HyLite hypermedia engine to facilitate parameters and properties of the system. The proposed techniques include intelligent searching tools for the libraries, intelligent retrievals, and navigational assistance based on user histories. HyLite itself is based on an earlier project, the Encyclopedia of Software Components (ESC) which used hypermedia to facilitate and encourage software reuse.

Jupin, Joseph H.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Native Peoples-Native Homelands Climate Change Workshop: Lessons Learned

The Native Peoples-Native Homelands Climate Change Workshop was held on October 28 through November 01,1998, as part of a series of workshops being held around the U.S. to improve the understanding of the potential consequences of climate variability and change for the Nation. This workshop was specifically designed by Native Peoples to examine the impacts of climate change and extreme weather variability on Native Peoples and Native Homelands from an indigenous cultural and spiritual perspective and to develop recommendations as well as identify potential response actions. The workshop brought together interested Native Peoples, representatives of Tribal governments, traditional elders, Tribal leaders, natural resource managers, Tribal College faculty and students, and climate scientists fiom government agencies and universities. It is clear that Tribal colleges and universities play a unique and critical role in the success of these emerging partnerships for decision-making in addition to the important education function for both Native and non-Native communities such as serving as a culturally-appropriate vehicle for access, analysis, control, and protection of indigenous cultural and intellectual property. During the discussions between scientists and policy-makers from both Native and non-Native communities, a number of important lessons emerged which are key to building more effective partnerships between Native and non-Native communities for collaboration and decision-making for a more sustainable future. This talk summarizes the key issues, recommendations, and lessons learned during this workshop.

Maynard, Nancy G.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Polymer Composites Corrosive Degradation: A Computational Simulation

A computational simulation of polymer composites corrosive durability is presented. The corrosive environment is assumed to manage the polymer composite degradation on a ply-by-ply basis. The degradation is correlated with a measured pH factor and is represented by voids, temperature and moisture which vary parabolically for voids and linearly for temperature and moisture through the laminate thickness. The simulation is performed by a computational composite mechanics computer code which includes micro, macro, combined stress failure and laminate theories. This accounts for starting the simulation from constitutive material properties and up to the laminate scale which exposes the laminate to the corrosive environment. Results obtained for one laminate indicate that the ply-by-ply degradation degrades the laminate to the last one or the last several plies. Results also demonstrate that the simulation is applicable to other polymer composite systems as well.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Method for Validating Causal Diagrams of Human Health Risk in Space Flight

The complexity of cause-and-effect relationships between spaceflight hazards and resulting health conditions clouds understanding of the totality of human system risk in space. In response, NASA has introduced Directed Acyclic Graphs (causal diagrams) into the human systems risk management process. These diagrams allow for a common understanding of the mechanisms that lead from unique hazards of spaceflight to the health outcomes important to agencies and astronauts. However, the paucity of available biomedical data from spaceflight creates a need for methods of validating causal models that can accommodate data from spaceflight model analogs. Here we outline one approach utilizing open-access rodent bone datasets from the Ames Life Sciences Data Archive. The properties of directed acyclic graphs themselves can provide an epistemological and statistical framework for validation of a priori causal representations of human system risk in space flight. The assumed causal connections on the graph creates sets of logical implications: variables that – if the causal diagram is correct – should be correlated, as well as sets that should be conditionally independent. By testing these implied correlations and conditional independencies both statistically and heuristically, we can provide evidence for or against specific causal pathways on the causal diagram. In addition to validation of expert-generated causal diagrams, machine learning techniques can learn the most likely structure of a causal diagram from a given dataset. Comparison with and reconciliation between machine-learned causal diagrams and expert-generated diagrams is another technique for challenging assumptions and improving our understanding of causal mechanisms. Accurately representing complex causation is essential to systemic understanding of human health risks in space travel. Having a robust system of validating causal diagrams helps us arrive at more accurate representations of causal systems. This process will be integral to developing the countermeasures necessary for extended exploration of the moon and Mars.

Robert Reynolds↗