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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

MINLP for regularized symbolic regression with applications to data-driven modeling of critical minerals processes

The poster summarizes recent advances in symbolic regression developed as part of the PrOMMiS project over the past year. In particular, it describes the comparison of surrogates for critical minerals (CM) & rare earth element (REE) recovery flowsheets obtained via symbolic regression and ALAMO. It also compares the predictive ability and solvability of optimization models that incorporate these surrogates.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of the ARM Lagrangian Large-Scale Forcing Data (ARMLAGTRAJ) Value-Added Product Based on the lagtraj Framework

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) large-scale forcing data developed based on the constrained variational analysis (VARANAL) value-added product (VAP) (Zhang and Lin 1997, Zhang et al. 2001, Xie et al. 2004, Tang et al. 2019) has been widely used for single-column models (SCMs), cloud-resolving models (CRMs), and large-eddy simulation models (LESs) to understand and improve physical processes in models. Recently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) ARM user facility conducted several major field campaigns using ship-based moving observational platforms. For example, the Marine ARM GPCI Investigation of Clouds (MAGIC) field campaign focused on the role of subtropical marine-boundary layer (MBL) clouds, and the Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) field campaign aimed to improve understanding of the coupled climate systems in the Arctic. Observations from moving platforms are critical to provide a comprehensive characterization of coupled-system processes associated with all stages of the cloud and/or sea-ice life cycle. Traditional ARM large-scale forcing data have been developed at fixed locations. They need to be extended to include these moving platforms to address data needs for ship-based field campaigns or to support LES modeling in a Lagrangian framework. With these considerations in mind, we develop ARM-type Lagrangian large-scale forcing data sets based on the lagtraj framework (Boeing et al. 2020) with notable enhancements in generating forcings that are more suitable for ARM field campaigns. The lagtraj is a novel tool that generates forcings for LES and SCM simulation in both Lagrangian and Eulerian perspective. This technical report focuses on the major changes we performed on the lagtraj algorithm and provides an overview of the ARM Lagrangian Large-Scale Forcing Data (ARMLAGTRAJ) value-added products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Constitutive Model Development for Aging Polymer Encapsulants (ASC P&EM FY2021 L2 Milestone 7836)

This SAND report fulfills the completion requirements for the ASC Physics and Engineering Modeling Level 2 Milestone 7836 during Fiscal Year 2021. The Sandia Simplified potential energy clock (SPEC) non-linear viscoelastic constitutive model was developed to predict a whole host of polymer glass physical behaviors in order to provide a tool to assess the effects of stress on these materials over their lifecycle. Polymer glasses are used extensively in applications such as electronics packaging, where encapsulants and adhesives can be critical to device performance. In this work, the focus is on assessing the performance of the model in predicting material evolution associated with long-term physical aging, an area that the model has not been fully vetted in. These predictions are key to utilizing models to help demonstrate electronics packaging component reliability over decades long service lives, a task that is very costly and time consuming to execute experimentally. The initiating hypothesis for the work was that a model calibration process can be defined that enables confidence in physical aging predictions under ND relevant environments and timescales without sacrificing other predictive capabilities. To test the hypothesis, an extensive suite of calibration and aging data was assembled from a combination of prior work and collaborating projects (Aging and Lifetimes as well as the DoD Joint Munitions Program) for two mission relevant epoxy encapsulants, 828DGEBA/DEA and 828DGEBA/T403. Multiple model calibration processes were developed and evaluated against the entire set of data for each material. A qualitative assessment of each calibration's ability to predict the wide range of aging responses was key to ranking the calibrations against each other. During this evaluation, predictions that were identified as non-physical, i.e., demonstrated something that was qualitatively different than known material behavior, were heavily weighted against the calibration performance. Thus, unphysical predictions for one aspect of aging response could generate a lower overall rating for a calibration process even if that process generated better quantitative predictions for another aspect of aging response. This insurance that all predictions are qualitatively correct is important to the overall aim of utilizing the model to predict residual stress evolution, which will depend on the interplay amongst the different material aging responses. The DSC-focused calibration procedure generated the best all-around aging predictions for both materials, demonstrating material models that can qualitatively predict the whole host of different physical aging responses that have been measured. This step forward in predictive capability comes from an unanticipated source, utilization of calorimetry measurements to specify model parameters. The DSC-focused calibration technique performed better than compression-focused techniques that more heavily weigh measurements more closely related to the structural responses to be predicted. Indeed, the DSC-focused calibration procedure was only possible due to recent incorporation of the enthalpy and heat capacity features into SPEC that was newly verified during this L2 milestone. Fundamentally similar aspects of the two material model calibrations as well as parametric studies to assess sensitives of the aging predictions are discussed within the report. A perspective on the next steps to the overall goal of residual stress evolution predictions under stockpile conditions closes the report.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Resin Testing and Modeling for Optimal Composite Processing

Polymer composites have properties such as high strength and stiffness, low weight, good thermal and chemical stability, as well as impact and abrasion resistance that make them ideal for high-performance applications. The chemistries of these materials are continuously improving, so determining their properties is vital for successfully producing them and achieving the desired results. Multiple methods can be employed to monitor characteristics such as heat flow, weight, dimension, and modulus as a function of time and temperature. By analyzing this information, models can be developed to predict outcomes of parameters not tested for. In one application, materials proposed for wet filament winding and the production of high pressure vessels can be analyzed to verify they will have the necessary low viscosity for good fiber wetting and long pot life for the extended handling inherent to this process. Such data about a prospective system provides valuable information on how that material could ultimately be processed to yield the desired part.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Penetration through slots in cylindrical cavities with cavity modes overlapping with the first slot resonance

In this work, we analyze the coupling into a slotted cylindrical cavity operating at fundamental cavity modal frequencies overlapping with the slot’s first resonance frequency through an unmatched formulation that accounts for the slot’s absorption and radiation processes. The model is validated through full-wave simulations and experimental data. We then couple the unmatched formulation to a perturbation theory model to investigate an absorber within the cavity to reduce the interior field strength, also validated with full-wave simulations and experiments. These models are pivotal to understanding the physical processes involved in the electromagnetic penetration through slots, and may constitute design tools to mitigate electromagnetic interference effects within cavities.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Surrogate modeling of the leaching process in a rare earth elements recovery plant

The data are summarized in the slides for a poster as presented at the 2024 AIChE annual meeting in San Diego, California, USA. The slides summarize our work on the PrOMMiS project over the past year. The slides describe the systematic design and optimization of a flowsheet for the recovery of critical minerals and rare earth elements. Then, it summarizes the results of our benchmarking of surrogate modeling methodologies for the optimization of these flowsheets.

Fardis, Dimitrios↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of random forest modeling decisions on biogeochemical time series predictions

Abstract Random forests (RF) are an increasingly popular machine learning approach used to model biogeochemical processes in the Earth system. While RF models are robust to many assumptions that complicate deterministic models, there are several important parameterization decisions for appropriate use and optimal model fit. We explored the role that parameter decisions, including training/testing data splitting strategies, variable selection, and hyperparameters play on RF goodness‐of‐fit by constructing models using 1296 unique parameter combinations to predict concentrations of nitrate, a key nutrient for biogeochemical cycling in aquatic ecosystems. Models were built on long‐term, publicly available water quality and meteorology time series collected by the National Estuarine Research Reserve monitoring network for two contrasting ecosystems representing freshwater and brackish estuaries. We found that accounting for temporal dependence when splitting data into training and testing subsets was key for avoiding over‐estimation of model predictive power. In addition, variable selection, the ratio of training to testing data, and to a lesser degree, variables per split and number of trees, were significant parameters for optimizing RF goodness‐of‐fit. We also explored how model parameter decisions influenced interpretation of the relative importance of predictors to the model, and model predictor‐dependent variable relationships, with results suggesting that both data structure and model parameterization influence these factors. Because much of the current RF literature is written for the computational and statistical science communities, the primary goal of this study is to provide guidelines for aquatic scientists new to machine learning to apply RF techniques appropriately to aquatic biogeochemical datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model data for a watershed-scale study in the Portage River Basin (OH) examining the effects of subsurface drainage on the hydrologic response of an agricultural watershed.

This study builds on Rathore et al. (2024, WRR) and investigates the role of artificial tile-drainage on various aspects of watershed hydrological response, with a particular focus on peakflow. The model-data for the original modeling-focused paper (Rathore et al., 2024, WRR) is archived at Rathore et al. (2024, ESS-DIVE). Hence, this model-data archive provides scripts that are specific to this study that includes model updates, processing and analysis scripts. For details and models files of original model, readers are referred to Rathore et al. (2024, ESS-DIVE). The key difference between the model configuration in this study and Rathore et al. (2024, WRR) is that the tile drains are applied to the entire domain, to study the impact of tile-drains on different aspects of hydrological response. Additional scenario considering intensified precipitation after a dry period was also simulated. The Watershed Workflow package is implemented in Python3. The Jupyter notebooks can be executed through multiple open-source tools, for example, Anaconda Jupyter Lab, VS Studio Code, etc. Other data files include CSV and HDF5 files, which can be read through Python scripts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-driven estimation of energy consumption for electric bus under real-world driving conditions

Reliable and accurate estimation of an electric bus’s instantaneous energy consumption is critical in evaluating energy impacts of planning and control of electric bus operations. In this study, we developed machine learning-based long short-term memory (LSTM) and artificial neural network (ANN) models to estimate 1 Hz energy consumption of electric buses based on continuous monitoring data of electric buses in Chattanooga, Tennessee, in 2019 and 2020. We propose a data-partitioning algorithm to separate energy charging and discharging modes before applying data-driven estimation models. Here, a K-fold cross-validation-based model selection process was conducted to identify the optimal model structure and input variables in terms of prediction accuracy. The estimation results show the predicted mean absolute percentage error rates of LSTM and ANN models were 3% and 5%, respectively. We compared the proposed models with existing models in the literature based on the same testing data to demonstrate the predictability of our models.

Artificial neural network↗
DOE OSTI2024

The EGS Collab project: Outcomes and lessons learned from hydraulic fracture stimulations in crystalline rock at 1.25 and 1.5 km depth

With the goal of better understanding stimulation in crystalline rock for improving enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), the EGS Collab Project performed a series of stimulations and flow tests at 1.25 and 1.5 km depths. The tests were performed in two well-instrumented testbeds in the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota, United States. The testbed for Experiment 1 at 1.5 km depth contained two open wells for injection and production and six instrumented monitoring wells surrounding the targeted stimulation zone. Four multi-step stimulation tests targeting hydraulic fracturing and nearly year-long ambient temperature and chilled water flow tests were performed in Experiment 1. The testbed for Experiments 2 and 3 was at 1.25 km depth and contained five open wells in an outwardly fanning five-spot pattern and two fans of well-instrumented monitoring wells surrounding the targeted stimulation zone. Experiment 2 targeted shear stimulation, and Experiment 3 targeted low-flow, high-flow, and oscillating pressure stimulation strategies. Hydraulic fracturing was successful in Experiments 1 and 3 in generating a connected system wherein injected water could be collected. However, the resulting flow was distributed dynamically, and not entirely collected at the anticipated production well. Thermal breakthrough was not observed in the production well, but that could have been masked by the Joule-Thomson effect. Shear stimulation in Experiment 2 did not occur - despite attempting to pressurize the fractures most likely to shear - because of the inability to inject water into a mostly-healed fracture, and the low shear-to-normal stress ratio. The EGS Collab experiments are described to provide a background for lessons learned on topics including induced seismicity, the correlation between seismicity and permeability, distributed and dynamic flow systems, thermoelastic and pressure effects, shear stimulation, local geology, thermal breakthrough, monitoring stimulation, grouting boreholes, modeling, and system management.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Model Reference Adaptive Control (MRAC) for Additive Manufacturing (AM)

Model Reference Adaptive Control (MRAC) is based on the fundamental concept that the process under investigation is to be controlled to follow or “track” a reference system (model) characterized by a state/input/output model employing an adaptive optimization algorithm to adjust the controller parameters in real-time. The generic structure of the MRAC is shown in Fig. 1 consisting of the following primary components: Reference model, Process (system) model, controller and the adaption algorithm. The basic structure of the controller is specified by a linear construct with the corresponding real-time adaption algorithms given by a gradient-type (so-called MIT rule) or based on stability theory (Lyapunov, hyperstability). This approach to adaptive control is termed “direct”, since the controller (parameters) are adjusted based on the component models/algorithm in contrast to the “indirect” approach that adjusts the process model parameters applying real-time system identification techniques.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Core Model Proposal #377: Breaking out food processing sector in GCAM

Purpose: This Core Model Proposal (CMP) expands the representation of detailed industry (CMP-326) in GCAM by separating the food processing sector from the aggregate “other industry sector”. Historical energy use is calibrated to IEA data for food processing, with some infilling for regions with limited IEA data. Food processing is linked to the GCAM food demand module, setting the energy demand for food processing in future periods based on food demand. While the direct price feedback is currently muted and the linkage is represented at the aggregated regional level, this CMP establishes the groundwork for a more detailed connection between the agrifood sectors and energy sectors in future work.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic Thermo-Hydro Modeling and Neural Network Surrogate Development for Thermal Resource Assessment of the Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery

The Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery concept explores the use of abandoned coal mine workings for large-scale thermal energy transport and storage. The system involves injecting waste heat from a supercomputing facility into flooded mine galleries, where groundwater flow can store and transport thermal energy for potential recovery in downgradient district heating and cooling applications. To evaluate the feasibility and performance of the Geobattery under geological and operational uncertainty, we developed a suite of stochastic thermo-hydrological (TH) simulations using Monte Carlo sampling of key uncertain parameters (e.g., permeability, porosity, thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity) and operating conditions (e.g., injection rate, injection temperature). Results identified injection rate and temperature as the most influential parameters governing thermal front propagation, while the geometry of the room-and-pillar structure played a critical role in directing the extent and orientation of thermal advancement. Optimal combinations of material properties for maximizing heat recovery were also determined. To address the high computational cost of coupled-process stochastic modeling, we trained a neural network surrogate model on 24,000 physics-based realizations, achieving an R² > 0.99 and MAE < 0.1 for temperature predictions at monitoring locations. This surrogate enabled an additional 100,000 realizations for global sensitivity analysis and probabilistic thermal resource assessment. The integrated stochastic physics–surrogate modeling framework offers a computationally efficient tool for quantifying uncertainty, identifying key drivers, and informing early-stage design decisions for Geobattery systems.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

The DECOVALEX international collaboration on modeling of coupled subsurface processes and its contribution to confidence building in radioactive waste disposal

Abstract The long-lived radiotoxicity of the high-level radioactive waste generated by nuclear power plants requires safe isolation from the biosphere for many hundreds of thousands of years. An international consensus has emerged that such isolation can best be provided by disposal in mined geologic repositories, a strategy that today is pursued by most countries dealing with radioactive waste. However, the need to predict the performance of such repositories over very long time periods generates large uncertainties that have to be accounted for in safety assessments. The findings from such safety assessments need to be conveyed to all stakeholders in a clear way, such that public confidence in geologic disposal solutions can be achieved. It is suggested here that close international collaboration on the technical aspects of geologic waste disposal has helped, and will continue to help, building trust and increasing confidence. This paper discusses a particular international collaboration initiative referred to as DECOVALEX, which brings together multiple teams and disciplines to collectively tackle complex experimental and modeling challenges related to geologic disposal. By describing how DECOVALEX works and by providing joint research examples, a case is made that such international collaboration contributes to knowledge transfer and confidence building in radioactive waste disposal science.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Experimental and Numerical Investigation of a Miniature Additively Manufactured Vortex Tube

Ranque–Hilsch vortex tubes are simple devices that can produce a cooling effect using compressed air. A key advantage of vortex tubes is the lack of moving solid parts; however, their efficiencies are relatively low. The present study focuses on the development of a miniature variable-diameter tube using additive manufacturing. A metal-based 3D printing technique was utilized to fabricate this vortex tube monolithically. Computational fluid dynamics simulations employing software STAR-CCM + with a compressible Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) approach and the elliptic-blending lag k-epsilon turbulence model have been applied to model thermofluid processes inside the vortex tube, to good agreement with the experiment. In conclusion, a temperature decrease of 13.3 °C and a cooling power of approximately 4 W were experimentally achieved with a pressure ratio of 4 in the air at normal conditions. This result shows promise for the goal of utilizing additive manufacturing to design and build complex-geometry vortex tubes intended for use with cryogenic fluids.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

A detailed study of pre-heating effects in electron beam melting powder bed fusion process

Metal-based additive manufacturing processes, such as powder bed fusion with electron beam (PBF-EB) process, also referred to as electron beam melting (EBM), can produce high-density parts with minimal residual stresses due to the uniform and coherent preheating of the powder bed. However, understanding and controlling the multiple stages of preheating is required to enable the production of high-quality, consistent parts of various materials. This work presents a large-scale, multi-layer, three-dimensional numerical analysis focused on studying the preheating stages for predicting thermal history during the PBF-EB process. The model follows a continuous multi-stage cyclic process, that incorporates all the main stages of the PBF-EB process for 316 L stainless steel. This includes the gradual deposition of a new powder layer, the first and second preheating levels of the powder bed, and the energy deposition during melting (excluding the actual melt-pool behavior simulation). The model employs an adaptive time-scaling approach that automatically adjusts the energy deposition for each solution time-increment. This allows for localized changes in time-resolution over an otherwise computationally expensive multi-layer procedure. The material property variations are also taken into account, with an emphasis on the subtle irreversible changes in powder effective thermal conductivity after the two requisite preheating stages of the powder bed. This effect is studied using simplified conductivity models from the literature for partially sintered powder, validated by a dedicated experiment and numerical simulation. The large-scale model is then used to estimate the actual temperatures during first and second preheating levels for 316 L steel, which is not yet fully supported commercially for PBF-EB. Model predictions are corroborated by experiments, using and analyzing IR images, taken at the completion of each layer by the machine’s built-in infrared camera. The current model also incorporates a qualitative assessment for the effects of conductivity change during pre-heating, as well as evaluates the applicability of the time-scaling approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling gas–shell mixing in ICF with separated reactants

Mixing between fuel and shell materials in ICF implosions can affect implosion dynamics and even prevent ignition. We use data from a series of separated reactant experiments on the National Ignition Facility to calibrate and test the predictive power of gas–shell mix models. Two models are used to estimate fuel–shell mix: a Reynolds-averaged turbulence model and molecular diffusion. Minor uncertainties in capsule manufacture, experimental conditions, and values for mix model parameters produce significant variation in simulation results. Using input/output pairs from 1D simulations, we train Gaussian process surrogate models to predict experimental quantities of interest. The surrogates are used to construct posteriors for mix model parameters by marginalizing over uncertainties in capsule manufacture and experimental conditions. Mix models are calibrated with a subset of experimental data (neutron yields, ion temperature, and bang time) and tested using the remaining data. In general, both the diffusion and turbulence model correctly predict experimental DT and TT neutron yields. Despite having more free parameters, the turbulence model underpredicts ion temperature at high convergence ratio. Furthermore, the simpler diffusion model correctly predicts these temperatures, suggesting nonhydrodynamic gas–shell mix. The computational model consistently overpredicts DD neutron yield, indicating possible shortcomings outside of the mix model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decision-Model Supported Algal Cultivation Process Enhancement (DMSACPE) (Final Technical Report)

This project was proposed in response to the FY19 Bioenergy Technologies Office Multi-Topic Funding Opportunity Announcement DE-FOA-0002029, Area of Interest Subtopic 1 (AOI1): Cultivation Intensification Processes for Algae. The main challenge identified by the FOA was “in translating results between laboratory research systems and larger-scale outdoor (or mass culture) systems. These difficulties limit reliable experimental durations, adequate and representative experimental volumes of material, and results that can be reproduced reliably. By overcoming the challenge in translating results between laboratory and mass cultures, the objective of AOI 1 is to increase the harvest yield, robustness, and quality of algae cultivation for biofuels and bioproducts”. This report marks the final technical deliverable of this project and reviews all the major findings of the research program.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗