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NASA NTRS2010

Computational Analyses in Support of Sub-scale Diffuser Testing for the A-3 Facility: Steady Predictions - Part 1

Simulation technology can play an important role in rocket engine test facility design and development by assessing risks, providing analysis of dynamic pressure and thermal loads, identifying failure modes and predicting anomalous behavior of critical systems. Advanced numerical tools assume greater significance in supporting testing and design of high altitude testing facilities and plume induced testing environments of high thrust engines because of the greater inter-dependence and synergy in the functioning of the different sub-systems. This is especially true for facilities such as the proposed A-3 facility at NASA SSC because of a challenging operating envelope linked to variable throttle conditions at relatively low chamber pressures. Facility designs in this case will require a complex network of diffuser ducts, steam ejector trains, fast operating valves, cooling water systems and flow diverters that need to be characterized for steady state performance. In this paper, we will demonstrate with the use of CFD analyses s advanced capability to evaluate supersonic diffuser and steam ejector performance in a sub-scale A-3 facility at NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC) where extensive testing was performed. Furthermore, the focus in this paper relates to modeling of critical sub-systems and components used in facilities such as the A-3 facility. The work here will address deficiencies in empirical models and current CFD analyses that are used for design of supersonic diffusers/turning vanes/ejectors as well as analyses for confined plumes and venting processes. The primary areas that will be addressed are: (1) supersonic diffuser performance including analyses of thermal loads (2) accurate shock capturing in the diffuser duct; (3) effect of turning duct on the performance of the facility (4) prediction of mass flow rates and performance classification for steam ejectors (5) comparisons with test data from sub-scale diffuser testing and assessment of confidence levels in CFD based flowpath modeling of the facility. The analyses tools used here expand on the multi-element unstructured CFD which has been tailored and validated for impingement dynamics of dry plumes, complex valve/feed systems, and high pressure propellant delivery systems used in engine and component test stands at NASA SSC. The analyses performed in the evaluation of the sub-scale diffuser facility explored several important factors that influence modeling and understanding of facility operation such as (a) importance of modeling the facility with Real Gas approximation, (b) approximating the cluster of steam ejector nozzles as a single annular nozzle, (c) existence of mixed subsonic/supersonic flow downstream of the turning duct, and (d) inadequacy of two-equation turbulence models in predicting the correct pressurization in the turning duct and expansion of the second stage steam ejectors. The procedure used for modeling the facility was as follows: (i) The engine, test cell and first stage ejectors were simulated with an axisymmetric approximation (ii) the turning duct, second stage ejectors and the piping downstream of the second stage ejectors were analyzed with a three-dimensional simulation utilizing a half-plane symmetry approximation. The solution i.e. primitive variables such as pressure, velocity components, temperature and turbulence quantities were passed from the first computational domain and specified as a supersonic boundary condition for the second simulation. (iii) The third domain comprised of the exit diffuser and the region in the vicinity of the facility (primary included to get the correct shock structure at the exit of the facility and entrainment characteristics). The first set of simulations comprising the engine, test cell and first stage ejectors was carried out both as a turbulent real gas calculation as well as a turbulent perfect gas calculation. A comparison for the two cases (Real Turbulent and Perfect gas turbulent) of the Ma Number distribution and temperature distributions are shown in Figures 1 and 2 respectively.

Allgood, Daniel C.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Metrics for Flight Operations: Application to Europa Clipper Tour Selection

Objective measures are ubiquitous in the formulation, design and implementation of deep space missions. Tour durations, flyby altitudes, propellant budgets, power consumption, and other metrics are essential to developing and managing NASA missions. But beyond the simple metrics of cost and workforce, it has been difficult to identify objective, quantitative measures that assist in evaluating choices made during formulation or implementation phases in terms of their impact on flight operations. As part of the development of the Europa Clipper Mission system, a set of operations metrics have been defined along with the necessary design information and software tooling to calculate them. We have applied these methods and metrics to help assess the impact to the flight team on the six options for the Clipper Tour that are currently being vetted for selection in the fall of 2021. To generate these metrics, the Clipper MOS team first designed the set of essential processes by which flight operations will be conducted, using a standard approach and template to identify (among other aspects) timelines for each process, along with their time constraints (e.g., uplinks for sequence execution). Each of the resulting 50 processes is documented in a common format and concurred by stakeholders. Process timelines were converted into generic schedules and workforce-loaded using COTS scheduling software, based on the inputs of the process authors and domain experts. Custom code was generated to create an operations schedule for a specific portion of Clipper's prime mission, with instances of a given process scheduled based on specific timing rules (e.g., process X starts once per week on Thursdays) or relative to mission events (e.g., sequence generation process begins on a Monday, at least three weeks before each Europa closest approach). Over a 5-month period, and for each of six Clipper candidate tours, the result was a 20,000+ line, workforce-loaded schedule that documents all of the process-driven work effort at the level of individual roles, along with a significant portion of the level-of-effort work. Post-processing code calculated the absolute and relative number of work hours during a nominal 5 day / 40 hour work week, the work effort during 2nd and 3rd shift, as well as 1st shift on weekends. The resultant schedules and shift tables were used to generate objective measures that can be related to both human factors and to operational risk and showed that Clipper tours which utilize 6:1 resonant (21.25 day) orbits instead of 4:1 resonant (14.17 day) orbits during the first dozen or so Europa flybys are advantageous to flight operations. A similar approach can be extended to assist missions in more objective assessments of a number of mission issues and trades, including tour selection and spacecraft design for operability.

Sarrel, Marc↗

NASA NTRS2012

Observing System Simulations for the NASA ASCENDS Lidar CO2 Mission Concept: Substantiating Science Measurement Requirements

The NASA ASCENDS mission (Active Sensing of Carbon Emissions, Nights, Days, and Seasons) is envisioned as the next generation of dedicated, space-based CO2 observing systems, currently planned for launch in about the year 2022. Recommended by the US National Academy of Sciences Decadal Survey, active (lidar) sensing of CO2 from space has several potentially significant advantages, in comparison to current and planned passive CO2 instruments, that promise to advance CO2 measurement capability and carbon cycle understanding into the next decade. Assessment and testing of possible lidar instrument technologies indicates that such sensors are more than feasible, however, the measurement precision and accuracy requirements remain at unprecedented levels of stringency. It is, therefore, important to quantitatively and consistently evaluate the measurement capabilities and requirements for the prospective active system in the context of advancing our knowledge of carbon flux distributions and their dependence on underlying physical processes. This amounts to establishing minimum requirements for precision, relative accuracy, spatial/temporal coverage and resolution, vertical information content, interferences, and possibly the tradeoffs among these parameters, while at the same time framing a mission that can be implemented within a constrained budget. Here, we present results of observing system simulation studies, commissioned by the ASCENDS Science Requirements Definition Team, for a range of possible mission implementation options that are intended to substantiate science measurement requirements for a laser-based CO2 space instrument.

Kawa, Stephan R.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Improving Conceptual Design for Launch Vehicles

This report summarizes activities performed during the second year of a three year cooperative agreement between NASA - Langley Research Center and Georgia Tech. Year 1 of the project resulted in the creation of a new Cost and Business Assessment Model (CABAM) for estimating the economic performance of advanced reusable launch vehicles including non-recurring costs, recurring costs, and revenue. The current year (second year) activities were focused on the evaluation of automated, collaborative design frameworks (computation architectures or computational frameworks) for automating the design process in advanced space vehicle design. Consistent with NASA's new thrust area in developing and understanding Intelligent Synthesis Environments (ISE), the goals of this year's research efforts were to develop and apply computer integration techniques and near-term computational frameworks for conducting advanced space vehicle design. NASA - Langley (VAB) has taken a lead role in developing a web-based computing architectures within which the designer can interact with disciplinary analysis tools through a flexible web interface. The advantages of this approach are, 1) flexible access to the designer interface through a simple web browser (e.g. Netscape Navigator), 2) ability to include existing 'legacy' codes, and 3) ability to include distributed analysis tools running on remote computers. To date, VAB's internal emphasis has been on developing this test system for the planetary entry mission under the joint Integrated Design System (IDS) program with NASA - Ames and JPL. Georgia Tech's complementary goals this year were to: 1) Examine an alternate 'custom' computational architecture for the three-discipline IDS planetary entry problem to assess the advantages and disadvantages relative to the web-based approach.and 2) Develop and examine a web-based interface and framework for a typical launch vehicle design problem.

John R. Olds↗

NASA NTRS1984

Radiative heating rates near the stratospheric fountain

Radiative heating rates are computed for various sets of conditions thought to be appropriate to the stratospheric fountain region: with and without a layer of cirrus cloud between 100 and 150 mbar; with standard ozone and with decreased ozone in the lower stratosphere, again with and without the cirrus cloud; and with different temperatures in the tropopause region. The presence of the cloud decreases the radiative cooling below the cloud in the upper troposphere and increases the cooling above it in the lower stratosphere. The cloud is heated at the base and cooled at the top and thus radiatively destabilized; overall it gains energy by radiation. Decreasing ozone above the cloud also tends to cool the lower stratosphere. The net effect is a tendency for vertical convergence and horizontal divergence in the cloud region. High resolution profiles of temperature, ozone, and cloudiness within the fountain region are required in order to assess the final balance of the various processes.

Doherty, G. M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Venus geology and tectonics - Hotspot and crustal spreading models and questions for the Magellan mission

Spacecraft and ground-based observations of Venus have revealed a geologically young and active surface - with volcanoes, rift zones, orogenic belts and evidence for hotspots and crustal spreading - yet the processes responsible for these features cannot be identified from the available data. The Magellan spacecraft will acquire an unprecedented global data set which will provide a comprehensive and well resolved view of the planet. This will permit global geological mapping, an assessment of the style and relative importance of geological processes, and will help in the understanding of links between the surface geology and mantle dynamics of this earth-like planet.

Head, James W.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Arthropod phylogeny based on eight molecular loci and morphology

The interrelationships of major clades within the Arthropoda remain one of the most contentious issues in systematics, which has traditionally been the domain of morphologists. A growing body of DNA sequences and other types of molecular data has revitalized study of arthropod phylogeny and has inspired new considerations of character evolution. Novel hypotheses such as a crustacean-hexapod affinity were based on analyses of single or few genes and limited taxon sampling, but have received recent support from mitochondrial gene order, and eye and brain ultrastructure and neurogenesis. Here we assess relationships within Arthropoda based on a synthesis of all well sampled molecular loci together with a comprehensive data set of morphological, developmental, ultrastructural and gene-order characters. The molecular data include sequences of three nuclear ribosomal genes, three nuclear protein-coding genes, and two mitochondrial genes (one protein coding, one ribosomal). We devised new optimization procedures and constructed a parallel computer cluster with 256 central processing units to analyse molecular data on a scale not previously possible. The optimal 'total evidence' cladogram supports the crustacean-hexapod clade, recognizes pycnogonids as sister to other euarthropods, and indicates monophyly of Myriapoda and Mandibulata.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2008

Scintillation Breakdowns in Chip Tantalum Capacitors

Scintillations in solid tantalum capacitors are momentarily local breakdowns terminated by a self-healing or conversion to a high-resistive state of the manganese oxide cathode. This conversion effectively caps the defective area of the tantalum pentoxide dielectric and prevents short-circuit failures. Typically, this type of breakdown has no immediate catastrophic consequences and is often considered as nuisance rather than a failure. Scintillation breakdowns likely do not affect failures of parts under surge current conditions, and so-called "proofing" of tantalum chip capacitors, which is a controllable exposure of the part after soldering to voltages slightly higher than the operating voltage to verify that possible scintillations are self-healed, has been shown to improve the quality of the parts. However, no in-depth studies of the effect of scintillations on reliability of tantalum capacitors have been performed so far. KEMET is using scintillation breakdown testing as a tool for assessing process improvements and to compare quality of different manufacturing lots. Nevertheless, the relationship between failures and scintillation breakdowns is not clear, and this test is not considered as suitable for lot acceptance testing. In this work, scintillation breakdowns in different military-graded and commercial tantalum capacitors were characterized and related to the rated voltages and to life test failures. A model for assessment of times to failure, based on distributions of breakdown voltages, and accelerating factors of life testing are discussed.

Teverovsky, Alexander↗

NASA NTRS2017

Metabolomic and Genomic Markers of Atherosclerosis as Related to Oxidative Stress, Inflammation, and Vascular Function in Twin Astronauts

BACKGROUND: Future human space travel will consist primarily of long-duration missions onboard the International Space Station (ISS) or exploration-class missions to Mars, its moons, or nearby asteroids. Astronauts participating in long-duration missions may be at an increased risk of oxidative stress and inflammatory damage due to radiation, psychological stress, altered physical activity, nutritional insufficiency, and hyperoxia during extravehicular activity. By studying one identical twin during his 1-year ISS mission and his ground-based twin, this work extends a current NASA-funded investigation to determine whether these spaceflight factors contribute to an accelerated progression of atherosclerosis. This study of twins affords a unique opportunity to examine spaceflight-related atherosclerosis risk that is independent of the confounding factors associated with different genotypes. PURPOSE: The purpose of this investigation was to determine whether biomarkers of oxidative and inflammatory stress are elevated during and after long-duration spaceflight and determine if a relation exists between levels of these biomarkers and structural and functional indices of atherosclerotic risk measured in the carotid and brachial arteries. These physiological and biochemical data will be extended by using an exploratory approach to investigate the relationship between intermediate phenotypes and risk factors for atherosclerosis and the metabolomic signature from plasma and urine samples. Since metabolites are often the indirect products of gene expression, we simultaneously assessed gene expression and DNA methylation in leukocytes. HYPOTHESIS: We predict that, compared to the ground-based twin, the space-flown twin will experience elevated biomarkers of oxidative stress and inflammatory damage, altered arterial structure and function, accelerated telomere shortening, dysregulation of genes associated with oxidative stress and inflammation, and a metabolic profile shift that is associated with elevated atherosclerosis risk factors. METHODS: In the space-flown twin, a panel of biomarkers of oxidative and inflammatory stress were measured in venous blood samples and in 24-h (in-flight) and 48-h (pre- and post-flight) urine pools collected twice before flight, six times during the mission (~FD15, 75, 180, 240, 300, 335), and early in the post-flight recovery phase (3-5 days after landing). We also measured metabolomic (targeted and untargeted approaches) and genomic markers (DNA methylation, mRNA gene expression, telomere length) in these samples. Arterial structure, assessed from measures of intima-media thickness, also were measured using standard clinical ultrasound at the same time points. Arterial function was assessed using brachial flow-mediated dilation, a well-validated measure used to assess endothelium-dependent vasodilation and a sensitive predictor of atherosclerotic risk, only before and after spaceflight. All of the same measures were obtained in the ground-based twin, but less frequently. DISCUSSION: All data collection has been completed for both the space-flown twin and the ground-based twin. Vascular structure and function measures have been analyzed, blood and urine samples have been batch-processed. Results from these individuals will be compared to each other, to data from other Twin Study investigations, and to the larger complement of subjects participating in the companion study currently ongoing in ISS astronauts.

Lee, Stuart M. C.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Communications and Intelligent Systems Division Overview

Provides expertise, and plans, conducts and directs research and engineering development in the competency fields of advanced communications and intelligent systems technologies for applications in current and future aeronautics and space systems.Advances communication systems engineering, development and analysis needed for Glenn Research Center's leadership in communications and intelligent systems technology. Focus areas include advanced high frequency devices, components, and antennas; optical communications, health monitoring and instrumentation; digital signal processing for communications and navigation, and cognitive radios; network architectures, protocols, standards and network-based applications; intelligent controls, dynamics and diagnostics; and smart micro- and nano-sensors and harsh environment electronics. Research and discipline engineering allow for the creation of innovative concepts and designs for aerospace communication systems with reduced size and weight, increased functionality and intelligence. Performs proof-of-concept studies and analyses to assess the impact of the new technologies.

Intelligent Systems↗

NASA NTRS2016

Dynamic Systems Analysis for Turbine Based Aero Propulsion Systems

The aircraft engine design process seeks to optimize the overall system-level performance, weight, and cost for a given concept. Steady-state simulations and data are used to identify trade-offs that should be balanced to optimize the system in a process known as systems analysis. These systems analysis simulations and data may not adequately capture the true performance trade-offs that exist during transient operation. Dynamic systems analysis provides the capability for assessing the dynamic tradeoffs at an earlier stage of the engine design process. The dynamic systems analysis concept, developed tools, and potential benefit are presented in this paper. To provide this capability, the Tool for Turbine Engine Closed-loop Transient Analysis (TTECTrA) was developed to provide the user with an estimate of the closed-loop performance (response time) and operability (high pressure compressor surge margin) for a given engine design and set of control design requirements. TTECTrA along with engine deterioration information, can be used to develop a more generic relationship between performance and operability that can impact the engine design constraints and potentially lead to a more efficient engine.

dynamic analysis↗

NASA NTRS2011

Bridging Empirical and Physical Approaches for Landslide Monitoring and Early Warning

Rainfall-triggered landslides typically occur and are evaluated at local scales, using slope-stability models to calculate coincident changes in driving and resisting forces at the hillslope level in order to anticipate slope failures. Over larger areas, detailed high resolution landslide modeling is often infeasible due to difficulties in quantifying the complex interaction between rainfall infiltration and surface materials as well as the dearth of available in situ soil and rainfall estimates and accurate landslide validation data. This presentation will discuss how satellite precipitation and surface information can be applied within a landslide hazard assessment framework to improve landslide monitoring and early warning by considering two disparate approaches to landslide hazard assessment: an empirical landslide forecasting algorithm and a physical slope-stability model. The goal of this research is to advance near real-time landslide hazard assessment and early warning at larger spatial scales. This is done by employing high resolution surface and precipitation information within a probabilistic framework to provide more physically-based grounding to empirical landslide triggering thresholds. The empirical landslide forecasting tool, running in near real-time at http://trmm.nasa.gov, considers potential landslide activity at the global scale and relies on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data and surface products to provide a near real-time picture of where landslides may be triggered. The physical approach considers how rainfall infiltration on a hillslope affects the in situ hydro-mechanical processes that may lead to slope failure. Evaluation of these empirical and physical approaches are performed within the Land Information System (LIS), a high performance land surface model processing and data assimilation system developed within the Hydrological Sciences Branch at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. LIS provides the capabilities to quantify uncertainty from model inputs and calculate probabilistic estimates for slope failures. Results indicate that remote sensing data can provide many of the spatiotemporal requirements for accurate landslide monitoring and early warning; however, higher resolution precipitation inputs will help to better identify small-scale precipitation forcings that contribute to significant landslide triggering. Future missions, such as the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission will provide more frequent and extensive estimates of precipitation at the global scale, which will serve as key inputs to significantly advance the accuracy of landslide hazard assessment, particularly over larger spatial scales.

Kirschbaum, Dalia↗

NASA NTRS1975

Psychological stress measurement through voice output analysis

Audio tape recordings of selected Skylab communications were processed by a psychological stress evaluator. Strip chart tracings were read blind and scores were assigned based on characteristics reported by the manufacturer to indicate psychological stress. These scores were analyzed for their empirical relationships with operational variables in Skylab judged to represent varying degrees of situational stress. Although some statistically significant relationships were found, the technique was not judged to be sufficiently predictive to warrant its use in assessing the degree of psychological stress of crew members in future space missions.

Older, H. J.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Image gathering and coding for digital restoration: Information efficiency and visual quality

Image gathering and coding are commonly treated as tasks separate from each other and from the digital processing used to restore and enhance the images. The goal is to develop a method that allows us to assess quantitatively the combined performance of image gathering and coding for the digital restoration of images with high visual quality. Digital restoration is often interactive because visual quality depends on perceptual rather than mathematical considerations, and these considerations vary with the target, the application, and the observer. The approach is based on the theoretical treatment of image gathering as a communication channel (J. Opt. Soc. Am. A2, 1644(1985);5,285(1988). Initial results suggest that the practical upper limit of the information contained in the acquired image data range typically from approximately 2 to 4 binary information units (bifs) per sample, depending on the design of the image-gathering system. The associated information efficiency of the transmitted data (i.e., the ratio of information over data) ranges typically from approximately 0.3 to 0.5 bif per bit without coding to approximately 0.5 to 0.9 bif per bit with lossless predictive compression and Huffman coding. The visual quality that can be attained with interactive image restoration improves perceptibly as the available information increases to approximately 3 bifs per sample. However, the perceptual improvements that can be attained with further increases in information are very subtle and depend on the target and the desired enhancement.

Huck, Friedrich O.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Integration of domain and resource-based reasoning for real-time control in dynamic environments

A real-time software controller that successfully integrates domain-based and resource-based control reasoning to perform task execution in a dynamically changing environment is described. The design of the controller is based on the concept of partitioning the process to be controlled into a set of tasks, each of which achieves some process goal. It is assumed that, in general, there are multiple ways (tasks) to achieve a goal. The controller dynamically determines current goals and their current criticality, choosing and scheduling tasks to achieve those goals in the time available. It incorporates rule-based goal reasoning, a TMS-based criticality propagation mechanism, and a real-time scheduler. The controller has been used to build a knowledge-based situation assessment system that formed a major component of a real-time, distributed, cooperative problem solving system built under DARPA contract. It is also being employed in other applications now in progress.

Morgan, Keith↗

NASA NTRS2012

First Annual Report: NASA-ONERA Collaboration on Human Factors in Aviation Accidents and Incidents

This is the first annual report jointly prepared by NASA and ONERA on the work performed under the agreement to collaborate on a study of the human factors entailed in aviation accidents and incidents particularly focused on consequences of decreases in human performance associated with fatigue. The objective of this Agreement is to generate reliable, automated procedures that improve understanding of the levels and characteristics of flight-crew fatigue factors whose confluence will likely result in unacceptable crew performance. This study entails the analyses of numerical and textual data collected during operational flights. NASA and ONERA are collaborating on the development and assessment of automated capabilities for extracting operationally significant information from very large, diverse (textual and numerical) databases much larger than can be handled practically by human experts. This report presents the approach that is currently expected to be used in processing and analyzing the data for identifying decrements in aircraft performance and examining their relationships to decrements in crewmember performance due to fatigue. The decisions on the approach were based on samples of both the numerical and textual data that will be collected during the four studies planned under the Human Factors Monitoring Program (HFMP). Results of preliminary analyses of these sample data are presented in this report.

Srivastava, Ashok↗

NASA NTRS2018

Data Mining for Vortices on the Earth's Magnetosphere - Algorithm Application for Detection and Analysis

Unsteady processes in the solar wind– magnetosphere interaction, such as vortices developed at the magnetopause boundary by the Kelvin–Helmholtz instability, may contribute to the process of mass, momentum and energy transfer into the Earth’s magnetosphere. The research described in this paper validates an algorithm to automatically detect and characterize vortices based on velocity data from simulations. The vortex identification algorithm (VIA) systematically searches the 3-D velocity fields to identify critical points where the magnitude of the velocity vector vanishes. The velocity gradient tensor is computed and its invariants are used to assess vortex structure in the flow field. We use the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) Runs on Request capability to create a series of model runs initialized from the conditions observed by the Cluster mission in the Hwang et al. (2011) analysis of Kelvin–Helmholtz vortices observed during southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions. We analyze further the properties of the vortices found in the runs, including the velocity changes within their motion across the magnetosheath. We also demonstrate the potential of our tool to identify and characterize other transient features (e.g., flux transfer events, FTEs) with vortical internal structures. We find that the vortices are associated with flows on the magnetosheath side of the magnetopause that reach speeds greater than the solar wind speed at the bow shock.

Collado-Vega, Yaireska M.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Future Climate Change Significantly Alters Interannual Wheat Yield Variability Over Half of Harvested Areas

Climate change affects the spatial and temporal distribution of crop yields, which can critically impair food security across scales. A number of previous studies have assessed the impact of climate change on mean crop yield and future food availability, but much less is known about potential future changes in interannual yield variability. Here, we evaluate future changes in relative interannual global wheat yield variability (the coefficient of variation (CV)) at 0.25° spatial resolution for two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A multi-model ensemble of crop model emulators based on global process-based models is used to evaluate responses to changes in temperature, precipitation, and CO2. The results indicate that over 60% of harvested areas could experience significant changes in interannual yield variability under a high-emission scenario by the end of the 21st century (2066–2095). About 31% and 44% of harvested areas are projected to undergo significant reductions of relative yield variability under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In turn, wheat yield is projected to become more unstable across 23% (RCP4.5) and 18% (RCP8.5) of global harvested areas—mostly in hot or low fertilizer input regions, including some of the major breadbasket countries. The major driver of increasing yield CV change is the increase in yield standard deviation, whereas declining yield CV is mostly caused by stronger increases in mean yield than in the standard deviation. Changes in temperature are the dominant cause of change in wheat yield CVs, having a greater influence than changes in precipitation in 53% and 72% of global harvested areas by the end of the century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This research highlights the potential challenges posed by increased yield variability and the need for tailored regional adaptation strategies.

Climate change↗