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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 901 records · Page 50
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of WRF-Solar Cloud Forecast Using the NSRDB: Preprint

Cloud forecast is a crucial component in predicting solar irradiance from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Assessing cloud properties from the NWP models requires significant work due to the need for high-quality data, spatial analysis covering model extent, and detailed analysis of model performance for different types of clouds. This study presents an evaluation of the WRF-Solar cloud forecast using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). We propose an evaluation framework applied to a single model prediction as well as ensemble-based forecasts. Various cloud detection metrics are calculated when comparing with the satellite-derived dataset. The mismatched clouds from the WRF-Solar model are quantified using nine cloud types classified by cloud top height and cloud optical depth. The results based on the WRF-Solar forecasts covering the entire U.S. for the full year of 2018 shows mismatched cloud frequency in the range of 8% - 46% for thick and high-level (deep convective) to thin and low-level (cumulus) clouds.

cloud mask forecast↗
DOE OSTI2019

Enhancing materials property prediction by leveraging computational and experimental data using deep transfer learning

Abstract The current predictive modeling techniques applied to Density Functional Theory (DFT) computations have helped accelerate the process of materials discovery by providing significantly faster methods to scan materials candidates, thereby reducing the search space for future DFT computations and experiments. However, in addition to prediction error against DFT-computed properties, such predictive models also inherit the DFT-computation discrepancies against experimentally measured properties. To address this challenge, we demonstrate that using deep transfer learning, existing large DFT-computational data sets (such as the Open Quantum Materials Database (OQMD)) can be leveraged together with other smaller DFT-computed data sets as well as available experimental observations to build robust prediction models. We build a highly accurate model for predicting formation energy of materials from their compositions; using an experimental data set of $$1,643$$ 1 , 643 observations, the proposed approach yields a mean absolute error (MAE) of $$0.07$$ 0.07 eV/atom, which is significantly better than existing machine learning (ML) prediction modeling based on DFT computations and is comparable to the MAE of DFT-computation itself.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modified Isotherm Modeling to Predict Cs Exchange with Crystalline Silicotitanate in Tank Waste Simulants

The U.S. Department of Energy is working to expedite processing of Hanford tank waste supernate at the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant. To support this goal, Washington River Protection Solutions is designing a Tank Side Cesium Removal (TSCR) system for suspended solids and cesium (Cs/ 137 Cs) removal from Hanford tank waste supernate. The ion exchange media selected for Cs removal at TSCR is crystalline silicotitanate (CST) that is manufactured in a nearly spherical form by Honeywell UOP LLC (UOP; Des Plaines, IL) as product IONSIV® R9140-B (Na form). The Zheng Anthony Miller (ZAM) isotherm model (Zheng et al. 1997) is a multicomponent ion exchange model used to predict the exchange of Group I metals onto CST. The ZAM isotherm has historically been used to predict Cs distribution values from Hanford and Savannah River Site (SRS) tank waste simulants. Figure S.1 summarizes model predictions from the ZAM isotherm that indicate poor prediction of Cs distribution values for simple and complex simulants with the engineered form of CST, IONSIV® R9140-B, and IONSIV® R9120-B where the solid line indicates a perfect fit by the model. The dotted lines indicate ±20% error. Batch contact testing with Hanford tank waste complex and simple simulants was used in conjunction with SRS simulants to experimentally determine Cs distribution values using a modification to the original isotherm model. The experimentally determined maximum Cs capacity for IONSIV® R9140-B CST in both the simple and complex matrices was found to be 0.53±0.3 mmoles Cs/g of CST. This value is not drastically different from the maximum Cs capacity of 0.58 mmoles Cs/g TAM-5 reported by Zheng et al. (1997). However, it is important to note that TAM-5 (commercially IONSIV® IE-910) is a powder. Hamm et al. (2002) determined that a dilution factor was needed to account for the Zr(OH)2 binder in the engineered form of CST. Hamm et al. determined that a dilution factor of 0.68 was appropriate to account for binder contribution and correct overprediction of Cs exchange on the engineered form of CST in ZAM calculations. This reduced the total capacity from 0.58 mmol/g with TAM-5 to 0.39 mmol/g for the engineered form of CST (Hamm et al. 2002). Despite substituting the experimentally determined maximum Cs capacity of 0.55 mmoles Cs/g for the literature-reported capacity of 0.39 mmoles Cs/g, it was determined that additional modifications to the model’s equilibrium rate constants were necessary in refining the isotherm model. The modified model overpredicted K+ uptake by the CST when compared to digested CST results described by Campbell et al. (2019). The modified model was further revised to omit three of the five K+ exchange equilibrium reactions described by ZAM to reduce the additional K+ loading seen by the model. Figure S.2 summarizes the revised model isotherm predictions plotted against measured Kd values.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2017

Numerical convergence and validation of the DIMP inverse particle transport model

The data integration with modeled predictions (DIMP) model is a promising inverse radiation transport method for solving the special nuclear material (SNM) holdup problem. Unlike previous methods, DIMP is a completely passive nondestructive assay technique that requires no initial assumptions regarding the source distribution or active measurement time. DIMP predicts the most probable source location and distribution through Bayesian inference and quasi-Newtonian optimization of predicted detector re-sponses (using the adjoint transport solution) with measured responses. DIMP performs well with for-ward hemispherical collimation and unshielded measurements, but several considerations are required when using narrow-view collimated detectors. DIMP converged well to the correct source distribution as the number of synthetic responses increased. DIMP also performed well for the first experimental validation exercise after applying a collimation factor, and sufficiently reducing the source search vol-ume's extent to prevent the optimizer from getting stuck in local minima. DIMP's simple point detector response function (DRF) is being improved to address coplanar false positive/negative responses, and an angular DRF is being considered for integration with the next version of DIMP to account for highly collimated responses. Overall, DIMP shows promise for solving the SNM holdup inverse problem, especially once an improved optimization algorithm is implemented.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A predictive analytical model of electrical transport in multi-principal-element alloys

A predictive analytical model is presented for the electrical conductivity of multi-principal-element alloys (MPEAs), including those containing aluminum, transition metals, and refractory metals. Given that the lattice parameter of the Wigner-Seitz cell of an MPEA is similarly variable to a bulk metallic glass, it is postulated that electron scattering can be approximated by a series of two-level systems. Here, the resulting reduced-order model enabled an accurate determination of electrical resistivity and electron thermal conductivity based on the scattering of electrons in a two-level system across a Bloch-potential-based virtual crystal approximation. Model results are compared to experimental four-point probe electrical resistivity measurements between 300 K and 700 K for Al 0.3 CoCrCuFeNi, CoCrFeMnNi, (CoCrFeMnNi) 0.98 W 0.02 , (CoCrFeMnNi) 0.95 W 0.05 , and Nb 4 Ta 4 V 3 Ti, for model validation.

Analytical model↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physical, socio-psychological, and behavioural determinants of household energy consumption in the UK

Determining which attitudes and behaviours predict household energy consumption can help accelerate the low-carbon energy transition. Conventional approaches in this domain are limited, often relying on survey methods that produce data on individuals’ motivations and self-reported activities without pairing these with actual energy consumption records, which are particularly hard to collect for large, nationally representative samples. This challenge precludes the development of empirical evidence on which attitudes and behaviours influence patterns of energy consumption, thus limiting the extent to which these can inform energy interventions or conservation programs. This study demonstrates a novel methodology for estimating energy consumption in the absence of actual energy records by using a large, publicly available data set of energy consumption in the UK. We develop a predictive model using the Smart Energy Research Laboratory (SERL) data portal (with records from nearly 13,000 UK households) and then use this model to predict energy consumption (both electric and gas) for a sample of 1,000 UK householders for which we separately collect over 200 variables relating to climate change attitudes and practices. Our approach uses a set of over 50 independent variables that are shared between the data sets, allowing us to train a model on the SERL data and use it to analyse the relationship between energy consumption and the opinions, motivations, and daily practices of survey respondents. Results show that electricity consumption is influenced by a broader range of factors compared to gas. Household energy use is best explained by physical dwelling characteristics, socio-demographic variables, and certain behavioural and attitudinal measures. Notably, pro-environmental attitudes, frugality, and conscientiousness correlate with lower energy use, while income and consumerism are linked to higher consumption. We discuss how these findings can inform efforts to decarbonise home energy use in the UK.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

DECENTRALIZED APPROACH TO MULTI-ZONE GREY-BOX MODELING FOR MODEL-BASED PREDICTIVE CONTROL

This study aims to improve the easiness of utilizing the grey-box model (i.e., Resistance-Capacitance circuit) for Model-based Predictive Control (MPC). The primary barrier of implementing the MPC is estimating the control-oriented building model that needs to be computationally inexpensive and quick but reasonably precise in predicting building load and indoor conditions. The estimating of the model parameters becomes more complicated when the building scale is larger; e.g., multi-zone building. In this study, a decentralized approach is introduced; each zone is split and individually estimated with measured boundary temperature from adjacent zones integrated into one single system model. The proposed decentralized method is demonstrated with experimental data from a full-scale multi-zone test cell compared with the centralized reference case.

Joe, Jaewan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting Power Outage During Extreme Weather with EAGLE-I and NWS Datasets

Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, severe thunderstorms, and floods can significantly disrupt power grid systems, leading to electrical outages that result in inconvenience, economic losses, and life-threatening situations. There is a growing need for a robust and precise predictive model to forecast power outages, which will help prioritize emergency response before, during, and after extreme weather events. In this paper, we introduce machine-learning models that predict power outage risk at the state level during and after extreme weather events. We jointly utilized two publicly available datasets: the U.S. historical power outage data collected by the Environment for Analysis of Geo-Located Energy Information (EAGLE-I™) system, and the National Weather Service historical weather alert data sets. We highlight our initial result and discuss future work aimed at enhancing the model's robustness and accuracy for real-world applications.

Lee, Sangkeun (Matt)↗
DOE OSTI2015

A thermodynamic model to predict the aqueous solubility of hydrocarbon mixtures at two-phase hydrate-liquid water equilibrium

In order to understand the fate and transport of hydrocarbons and hydrocarbon mixtures in the deep sea and underlying sediments it requires an accurate determination of the two-phase hydrate (H)-liquid water (L w ) thermodynamic equilibrium in the absence of a free gas phase. In addition to controlling hydrate formation directly from the aqueous phase, the H-L w equilibrium provides the aqueous solubility of dissolving hydrate. The aqueous solubility of hydrocarbon mixture at H-L w equilibrium was calculated based on the van der Waals and Platteeuw statistical thermodynamic model and the Holder model. Langmuir constants were calculated from cell potential parameters obtained from ab initio intermolecular potentials and thus the model contains no fitting parameters. The model accurately predicts pure methane, ethane, and propane experimental H-L w equilibrium solubility data, including new data provided here for methane. Here, we present hydrocarbon solubilities in water and seawater at H-L w equilibrium at deep sea conditions for both methane and a thermogenic mixture based on the methane–ethane–propane ratio from the 2010 Macondo oil spill. We also present model predictions of the proportion of occupied large and small cages at H-L w equilibrium for both systems, as well as hydrocarbon ratios in the hydrate phase for the thermogenic mixture.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Single-nucleon knockout cross sections for reactions producing resonance states at or beyond the drip line

Single-nucleon knockout cross sections from fast secondary beams of the proton-drip-line nuclei 9 C, 13 O, and 17 Ne on a 9 Be target have been studied with emphasis on the production of resonance states. These states were identified by their invariant mass, and resonances with two-, three-, and five-body exit channels were examined. The measured cross sections for these states were compared with eikonal-model predictions using shell-model or variational Monte Carlo spectroscopic factors. The experimental yields were found to be suppressed relative to the model predictions, especially when a well-bound neutron or proton is removed. This suppression exceeds that found systematically in measured inclusive cross sections to particle-bound final states. In neutron knockout from 9 C and 13 O projectiles, this suppression of the unbound ground-state residuals yield is a factor of two to three times larger than that found in the bound final-state studies. Modifications to the structure of these systems due to coupling of the shell-model configurations to the continuum is expected to contribute to this extra suppression, especially when the final state is a near-threshold resonance. Furthermore, other considerations including the role of nuclear dynamics may be required to explain all the observed trends.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗
DOE OSTI2013

A cluster expansion model for predicting activation barrier of atomic processes

We introduce a procedure based on cluster expansion models for predicting the activation barrier of atomic processes encountered while studying the dynamics of a material system using the kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) method. Starting with an interatomic potential description, a mathematical derivation is presented to show that the local environment dependence of the activation barrier can be captured using cluster interaction models. Next, we develop a systematic procedure for training the cluster interaction model on-the-fly, which involves: (i) obtaining activation barriers for handful local environments using nudged elastic band (NEB) calculations, (ii) identifying the local environment by analyzing the NEB results, and (iii) estimating the cluster interaction model parameters from the activation barrier data. Once a cluster expansion model has been trained, it is used to predict activation barriers without requiring any additional NEB calculations. Numerical studies are performed to validate the cluster expansion model by studying hop processes in Ag/Ag(100). We show that the use of cluster expansion model with KMC enables efficient generation of an accurate process rate catalog.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Utility of anthesis–silking interval information to predict grain yield under water and nitrogen limited conditions

Delayed silking relative to pollen shed, measured as the anthesis–silking interval (ASI, the period between pollen shed and silking), is a good indicator of response to abiotic stresses in maize ( Zea mays L.). This research was conducted to investigate how ASI is affected by nitrogen (N) and water availability and to assess the utility of ASI to indirectly predict grain yield (GY) under contrasting water and N treatments. Two experiments were conducted in Hancock, WI, in 2018 and 2019. One experiment (Diverse hybrids) included 302 hybrids resulting from the cross of diverse inbred lines by a single tester evaluated at four different treatment levels resulting from combining nonlimited and low N with nonlimited and low water treatments. The second experiment (NSS FAC) included a set of 408 hybrids derived from the cross of biparental doubled-haploid lines from 13 factorial populations and evaluated under nonlimited and low N treatments. Anthesis and silk time in growing degree days, and GY (Mg ha -1 ) were measured. Genomic prediction was assessed using a genomic best linear unbiased prediction model, and predictive ability was calculated as the correlation between genomic predictions and adjusted means in the different treatments. Predictive ability ranged from .15 to .49 for NSS FAC and from .06 to .51 for Diverse hybrids across traits and treatments. The ASI was a good indicator of stress and showed higher heritability than GY in the limited treatments for both experiments; however, it did not improve yield predictability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of COVID-19 related stay-at-home restrictions on residential electricity use and implications for future grid stability

“Stay-at-home” orders and other health precautions enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic have led to substantial changes in residential electricity usage. Here, we conduct a case study to analyze data from 390 apartments in New York City (NYC) to examine the impacts of two key drivers of residential electricity usage: COVID-19 case-loads and the outdoor temperature. We develop a series of regression models to predict two characteristics of residential electricity usage on weekdays: The average occupied apartment’s consumption (kWh) over a 9am-5pm window and the hourly peak demand (Watt) over a 12pm-5pm window. Via a Monte Carlo simulation, we forecast the two usage characteristics under a possible scenario in which stay-at-home orders in NYC, or a similar metropolitan region, coincide with warm summer weather. Under the scenario, the 9am-5pm residential electricity usage on weekdays is predicted to be 15% – 24% higher than under prior, pre-pandemic conditions. This could lead to substantially higher utility costs for residents. Additionally, we predict that the residential hourly peak demand between 12pm and 5pm on weekdays could be 35% – 53% higher than that under pre-pandemic conditions. We conclude that the projected increase in peak demand - which might arise if stay-at-home guidelines coincided with hot weather conditions - could pose grid management challenges, especially for residential feeders. We also note that, if there is a longer lasting shift towards work and study-from-home, utilities will have to rethink load profile considerations. The applications of our predictive models to managing future smart-grid technology are also highlighted.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermal loading effects on chalk hydromechanical behavior for nuclear waste disposal

Safe disposal of heat-generating nuclear waste depends on host rock stability under thermal, hydrological, and mechanical stresses. This study investigates the effect of thermal loading on mechanical behavior of the shallowly buried Ghareb formation chalk through triaxial and hydrostatic constant strain rate and creep tests at temperatures up to 100 ˚C and effective pressures up to 20.7 MPa. Experimental results show that thermal loading reduces the elastic moduli of chalk by 50–75%, and a transition occurs above 60 ˚C where creep rates increase rapidly. Water saturation nearly doubles the thermally induced strain compared to dry conditions and strongly decreases material rigidity. Thermal loading also leads to significant pore pressure increases under undrained conditions and leads to reductions in the apparent permeability during drained conditions. Laboratory experimental data were used to parameterize and develop a preliminary constitutive model for predicting future deformation during repository operations in the Ghareb. The strongly coupled effects – mechanical weakening, fluid pressure fluctuations, and permeability modification – demonstrate that elevated repository temperatures will have a pronounced effect on the near field Ghareb behavior during waste disposal operations. The findings indicate that the coupled interactions must be considered in predictive models and repository design to ensure long-term nuclear waste isolation and safety.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Secondary porosity prediction in complex carbonate reefs using 3D CT scan image analysis and machine learning

Development and preservation of carbonate porosity and permeability are critical to characterizing reservoirs. However, secondary porosity, such as vugs and fractures, are difficult to identify and require collection of expensive wireline tools or core sampling. Wireline logs and cores have traditionally been used to identify the presence of secondary porosity but fail to quantify the contribution to total reservoir porosity. Additionally, advanced wireline logs and core are not readily available for most wells. Dual energy CT scans were collected on whole core from the A-1 Carbonate and Brown Niagaran formations drawn from six wells in northern Michigan. 3D analysis techniques were applied to identify and isolate secondary porosity features. A series of machine learning and data analytics techniques were applied to the dataset to predict secondary porosity features on basic wireline logs. The predictive model successfully predicted secondary porosity with high confidence.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven predictions of complex organic mixture permeation in polymer membranes

Membrane-based organic solvent separations are rapidly emerging as a promising class of technologies for enhancing the energy efficiency of existing separation and purification systems. Polymeric membranes have shown promise in the fractionation or splitting of complex mixtures of organic molecules such as crude oil. Determining the separation performance of a polymer membrane when challenged with a complex mixture has thus far occurred in an ad hoc manner, and methods to predict the performance based on mixture composition and polymer chemistry are unavailable. Here, we combine physics-informed machine learning algorithms (ML) and mass transport simulations to create an integrated predictive model for the separation of complex mixtures containing up to 400 components via any arbitrary linear polymer membrane. We experimentally demonstrate the effectiveness of the model by predicting the separation of two crude oils within 6-7% of the measurements. Integration of ML predictors of diffusion and sorption properties of molecules with transport simulators enables for the rapid screening of polymer membranes prior to physical experimentation for the separation of complex liquid mixtures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven design of novel halide perovskite alloys

The great tunability of the properties of halide perovskites presents new opportunities for optoelectronic applications as well as significant challenges associated with exploring combinatorial chemical spaces. Here, in this work, we develop a framework powered by high-throughput computations and machine learning for the design and prediction of mixed cation halide perovskite alloys. In a chemical space of ABX 3 perovskites with a selected set of options for A, B, and X species, pseudo-cubic structures with B-site mixing are simulated using density functional theory (DFT) and several properties are computed, including stability, lattice constant, band gap, vacancy formation energy, refractive index, and optical absorption spectrum, using both semi-local and hybrid functionals. Neural networks (NN) are used to train predictive models for every property using tabulated elemental properties of A, B, and X site species as descriptors. Starting from a DFT dataset of 229 points, we use the trained NN models to predict the structural, energetic, electronic, and optical properties of an extensive dataset of 17955 compounds, and perform high-throughput screening in terms of stability, band gap, and defect tolerance, to obtain 392 promising compounds that are ranked as potential absorbers according to their photovoltaic figure of merit. Compositional trends in the screened set of attractive mixed cation halide perovskites are revealed and additional computations are performed on selected compounds. The data-driven design framework developed here is promising for designing novel mixed compositions and can be extended to a wider perovskite chemical space in terms of A, B, and X species, different kinds of mixing at the A, B, or X sites, non-cubic phases, and other properties of interest.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗