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A graph embedding‐based approach for automatic cyber‐physical power system risk assessment to prevent and mitigate threats at scale

Abstract Power systems are facing an increasing number of cyber incidents, potentially leading to damaging consequences to both physical and cyber aspects. However, the development of analytical methods for the study of large‐scale power infrastructures as cyber‐physical systems is still in its early stages. Drawing inspiration from machine‐learning techniques, the authors introduce a method inspired by the principles of graph embedding that is tailored for quantitative risk assessment and the exploration of possible mitigation strategies of large‐scale cyber‐physical power systems. The primary advantage of the graph embedding approach lies in its ability to generate numerous random walks on a graph, simulating potential access paths. Meanwhile, it enables capturing high‐dimensional structures in low‐dimensional spaces, facilitating advanced machine‐learning applications, and ensuring scalability and adaptability for comprehensive network analysis. By employing this graph embedding‐based approach, the authors present a structured and methodical framework for risk assessment in cyber‐physical systems. The proposed graph embedding‐based risk analysis framework aims to provide a more insightful perspective on cyber‐physical risk assessment and situation awareness for power systems. To validate and demonstrate its applicability, the method has been tested on two cyber‐physical power system models: the Western System Coordinating Council (WSCC) 9‐Bus System and the Illinois 200‐Bus System , thereby showing its advantages in enhancing the accuracy of risk analysis and comprehensiveness of situational awareness.

Sun, Shining↗

Thermal interfaces in dynamic compression experiments

Temperature is a difficult thermodynamic variable to measure in dynamic compression experiments. Optical pyrometry is a general-purpose technique for measuring temperature from a radiant surface, but that surface is often the interface between distinct materials with temperatures that vary spatially along the loading direction. This leads to a fundamental problem: how does the measured interface temperature relate to this temperature profile along the compression axis? Numerical analysis of loading history and thermal diffusion at these interfaces shows that seemingly subtle changes in experiment geometry can lead to very different temperature profiles. We compare these results to laboratory temperature measurements of shock-compressed tin.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Three-dimensional full-field velocity measurements in shock compression experiments using stereo digital image correlation

Shock compression plate impact experiments conventionally rely on point-wise velocimetry measurements based on laser-based interferometric techniques. This study presents an experimental methodology to measure the free surface full-field particle velocity in shock compression experiments using high-speed imaging and three-dimensional (3D) digital image correlation (DIC). The experimental setup has a temporal resolution of 100 ns with a spatial resolution varying from 90 to 200 μm/pixel. Experiments were conducted under three different plate impact configurations to measure spatially resolved free surface velocity and validate the experimental technique. First, a normal impact experiment was conducted on polycarbonate to measure the macroscopic full-field normal free surface velocity. Second, an isentropic compression experiment on Y-cut quartz–tungsten carbide assembly is performed to measure the particle velocity for experiments involving ramp compression waves. To explore the capability of the technique in multiaxial loading conditions, a pressure shear plate impact experiment was conducted to measure both the normal and transverse free surface velocities under combined normal and shear loading. The velocities measured in the experiments using digital image correlation are validated against previous data obtained from laser interferometry. Numerical simulations were also performed using established material models to compare and validate the experimental velocity profiles for these different impact configurations. The novel ability of the employed experimental setup to measure full-field free surface velocities with high spatial resolutions in shock compression experiments is demonstrated for the first time in this work.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Bayesian inferences of electrical current delivered to shocked transmission lines

Small radius Bdot measurements of electrical current delivered by pulsed power devices are routinely compromised by electrode/convolute plasmas endemic to multiterawatt transmission lines. Inferences of delivered current unaffected by these issues have recently been obtained by numerically optimizing consistency between model predictions and local experimental velocimetry data, but these are only unique for shockless velocity profiles. In the paper we describe a more general Bayesian method capable of inferring current despite the presence of shocks. Additionally, we describe uncertainty estimates and use of the technique on experimental data. This technique is the first to provide uncertainty estimates on the full current trace delivered to an inertial confinement fusion target.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Nonperturbative running of the tensor operator for N f = 3 QCD from the chirally rotated Schrödinger functional

We study the renormalization group (RG) running of the nonsinglet tensor operator, for N f = 3 QCD with Wilson fermions in a mixed action setup, with standard Schrödinger functional (SF) boundary conditions for sea quarks and chirally rotated Schrödinger functional ( χ SF ) boundary conditions for valence quarks. Based on a recursive finite-size scaling technique we compute nonperturbatively the tensor step-scaling function for an energy range between a hadronic scale and an electroweak scale, above which perturbation theory may be safely applied. Our result is expressed as the RG-running factor T RGI / [ T ( μ had ) ] R , where the numerator is the scale independent (renormalization group invariant—RGI) tensor operator and the denominator is its renormalized counterpart at a hadronic scale μ had = 233 ( 8 ) MeV in a given scheme. We determine the step-scaling function in four distinct renormalization schemes. We also compute the renormalization parameters of these schemes at μ had which, combined with the RG-running factor, gives the scheme-independent quantity Z T RGI ( g 0 2 ) in four schemes and for a range of bare gauge couplings in which large volume hadronic matrix element simulations are performed by the CLS consortium in N f = 2 + 1 QCD. All four results are compatible and also agree with a recent determination based on a unitary setup for Wilson quarks with Schrödinger functional boundary conditions [arXiv:2309.04314]. This provides a strong universality test. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Resilience-Motivated Distribution System Restoration Considering Electricity-Water-Gas Interdependency

A major outage in the electricity distribution system may affect the operation of water and natural gas supply systems, leading to an interruption of multiple services to critical customers. Therefore, enhancing resilience of critical infrastructures requires joint efforts of multiple sectors. In this paper, a distribution system service restoration method considering the electricity-water-gas interdependency is proposed. The objective is maximizing the supply of electricity, water, and gas to critical customers after an extreme event. The operational constraints of electricity, water, and natural gas networks are considered. Additionally, the characteristics of electricity-driven coupling components, including water pumps and gas compressors, are also modeled. Relaxation techniques are applied to non convex constraints posed by physical laws of those networks. Consequently, the restoration problem is formulated as a mixed-integer second-order cone program, which can readily be solved by the off-the-shelf solvers. The proposed method is validated by numerical simulations on an electricity-water-gas integrated system, developed based on benchmark models of the subsystems. The results indicate that considering the interdependency refines the allocation of limited generation resources and demonstrate the exactness of the proposed convex relaxation

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Predicting ptychography probe positions using single-shot phase retrieval neural network

Ptychography is a powerful imaging technique that is used in a variety of fields, including materials science, biology, and nanotechnology. However, the accuracy of the reconstructed ptychography image is highly dependent on the accuracy of the recorded probe positions which often contain errors. These errors are typically corrected jointly with phase retrieval through numerical optimization approaches. When the error accumulates along the scan path or when the error magnitude is large, these approaches may not converge with satisfactory result. We propose a fundamentally new approach for ptychography probe position prediction for data with large position errors, where a neural network is used to make single-shot phase retrieval on individual diffraction patterns, yielding the object image at each scan point. The pairwise offsets among these images are then found using a robust image registration method, and the results are combined to yield the complete scan path by constructing and solving a linear equation. We show that our method can achieve good position prediction accuracy for data with large and accumulating errors on the order of 10 2 pixels, a magnitude that often makes optimization-based algorithms fail to converge. For ptychography instruments without sophisticated position control equipment such as interferometers, our method is of significant practical potential.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Deep Learning for Ensemble Forecasting

Focal Area: (2) Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components and the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising a hierarchy of models. Science Challenge: While both climate and weather forecast systems have continued to improve due to substantial efforts to improve computational capabilities, observations, and numerical models, the atmosphere is a chaotic system, and this puts a fundamental limit on our ability to make predictions. Forecasts made by high-resolution models initialized with only slightly different atmospheric states can quickly diverge. Quantifying uncertainty in forecasts is essential to adequately understand them and to make the best-informed policy decisions particularly when it comes to hydrology, extreme weather (including extreme precipitation events), and climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dissipation Enables Strongly Detuning-Dependent Interference in Pulsed Dynamical Decoupling

One of the defining features of pulsed dynamical decoupling is its suppression of a driven qubit's sensitivity to static detuning errors between the drive field and qubit resonance. In this paper, we show that dissipation, in the form of excited-state decay, can change this behavior entirely, producing an interference signal with a strong detuning dependence. This signal arises from decay during driven evolution and relies on coherence retained by the qubit after such a decay event. We develop analytical and numerical models that capture the underlying mechanism and observe this same dissipation-induced detuning dependence experimentally in both a free-space strontium atom interferometer and a superconducting transmon qubit system. We also use this dissipation-induced detuning dependence as the basis for a new spectroscopic technique called Dissipative Carr-Purcell Spectroscopy (DCPS) and compare it with a traditional Ramsey sequence. Our results establish a regime of pulsed dynamical decoupling in which dissipation reshapes, rather than merely degrades, coherent control, and we expect these dynamics to be relevant to a wide range of quantum systems.

DeRose, Kenneth [Northwestern U.; Fermilab] (ORCID↗

Context-aware learning of hierarchies of low-fidelity models for multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification

Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo methods leverage low-fidelity and surrogate models for variance reduction to make tractable uncertainty quantification even when numerically simulating the physical systems of interest with high-fidelity models is computationally expensive. This work proposes a context-aware multi-fidelity Monte Carlo method that optimally balances the costs of training low-fidelity models with the costs of Monte Carlo sampling. It generalizes the previously developed context-aware bi-fidelity Monte Carlo method to hierarchies of multiple models and to more general types of low-fidelity models. When training low-fidelity models, the proposed approach takes into account the context in which the learned low-fidelity models will be used, namely for variance reduction in Monte Carlo estimation, which allows it to find optimal trade-offs between training and sampling to minimize upper bounds of the mean-squared errors of the estimators for given computational budgets. This is in stark contrast to traditional surrogate modeling and model reduction techniques that construct low-fidelity models with the primary goal of approximating well the high-fidelity model outputs and typically ignore the context in which the learned models will be used in upstream tasks. Further, the proposed context-aware multi-fidelity Monte Carlo method applies to hierarchies of a wide range of types of low-fidelity models such as sparse-grid and deep-network models. Numerical experiments with the gyrokinetic simulation code Gene show speedups of up to two orders of magnitude compared to standard estimators when quantifying uncertainties in small-scale fluctuations in confined plasma in fusion reactors. This corresponds to a runtime reduction from 72 days to four hours on one node of the Lonestar6 supercomputer at the Texas Advanced Computing Center.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Micro-continuum approach for mineral precipitation

Abstract Rates and extents of mineral precipitation in porous media are difficult to predict, in part because laboratory experiments are problematic. It is similarly challenging to implement numerical methods that model this process due to the need to dynamically evolve the interface of solid material. We developed a multiphase solver that implements a micro-continuum simulation approach based on the Darcy–Brinkman–Stokes equation to study mineral precipitation. We used the volume-of-fluid technique in sharp interface implementation to capture the propagation of the solid mineral surface. Additionally, we utilize an adaptive mesh refinement method to improve the resolution of near interface simulation domain dynamically. The developed solver was validated against both analytical solution and Arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian approach to ensure its accuracy on simulating the propagation of the solid interface. The precipitation of barite (BaSO 4 ) was chosen as a model system to test the solver using variety of simulation parameters: different geometrical constraints, flow conditions, reaction rate and ion diffusion. The growth of a single barite crystal was simulated to demonstrate the solver’s capability to capture the crystal face specific directional growth.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Frequency-dependent sensitivity of AC elastocaloric effect measurements explored through analytical and numerical models

We present a comprehensive study of the frequency-dependent sensitivity for measurements of the AC elastocaloric effect by applying both exactly soluble models and numerical methods to the oscillating heat flow problem. These models reproduce the finer details of the thermal transfer functions observed in experiments, considering here representative data for single-crystal Ba(Fe1−xCox)2As2. Based on our results, we propose a set of practical guidelines for experimentalists using this technique. This work establishes a baseline against which the frequency response of the AC elastocaloric technique can be compared and provides intuitive explanations of the detailed structure observed in experiments.

Straquadine, J. A. W. (ORCID:0000000165309541)↗

Experimental Characterization of Photoemission from Plasmonic Nanogroove Arrays

Metal photocathodes are an important source of high-brightness electron beams, ubiquitous in the operation of both large-scale accelerators and table-top microscopes. When the surface of a metal is nanoengineered with patterns on the order of the optical wavelength, it can lead to the excitation and confinement of surface-plasmon-polariton waves that drive nonlinear photoemission. In this work, we aim to evaluate gold plasmonic nanogrooves as a concept for producing bright electron beams for accelerators via nonlinear photoemission. Here, we do this by first comparing their optical properties to numerical calculations from first principles to confirm our ability to fabricate these nanoscale structures. Their nonlinear photoemission yield is found by measuring emitted photocurrent as the intensity of their driving laser is varied. Finally, the mean transverse energy of this electron source is found using the solenoid-scan technique. Our data demonstrate the ability of these cathodes to provide a tenfold enhancement in the efficiency of photoemission over flat metals driven with a linear process. We find that these cathodes are robust and capable of reaching sustained average currents over 100 nA at optical intensities larger than 2 GW cm –2 with no degradation of performance. The emittance of the generated beam is found to be highly asymmetric, a fact we can explain with calculations involving the also asymmetric roughness of the patterned surface. These results demonstrate the use of nanoengineered surfaces as enhanced photocathodes, providing a robust air-stable source of high-average-current electron beams hopefully with great potential for industrial and scientific applications.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Constructing Neural Network Based Models for Simulating Dynamical Systems

Dynamical systems see widespread use in natural sciences like physics, biology, and chemistry, as well as engineering disciplines such as circuit analysis, computational fluid dynamics, and control. For simple systems, the differential equations governing the dynamics can be derived by applying fundamental physical laws. However, for more complex systems, this approach becomes exceedingly difficult. Data-driven modeling is an alternative paradigm that seeks to learn an approximation of the dynamics of a system using observations of the true system. In recent years, there has been an increased interest in applying data-driven modeling techniques to solve a wide range of problems in physics and engineering. Here this article provides a survey of the different ways to construct models of dynamical systems using neural networks. In addition to the basic overview, we review the related literature and outline the most significant challenges from numerical simulations that this modeling paradigm must overcome. Based on the reviewed literature and identified challenges, we provide a discussion on promising research areas.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ultra-narrow-linewidth hybrid-integrated self-injection locked laser at 780 nm

Narrow-linewidth lasers are essential across a wide range of applications, including classical and quantum sensing, trapped ion systems, position/navigation/timing systems, optical clocks, and microwave frequency synthesizers. In the visible and near-visible spectrum, low-noise lasers are particularly important for laser trapping and cooling techniques, which are vital for trapped ion quantum computing, sensing, and atomic clocks. In this context, our work showcases a hybrid-integrated narrow-linewidth laser that operates at 780 nm, achieving a self-heterodyne linewidth of 105 Hz. To validate the experimental results, we performed a numerical analysis that combines insights from a many-body theory applied to the gain region with a travelling-wave model to capture the laser dynamics. Our investigation further delves into how the linewidth of the self-injection locked lasers is influenced by the parameters of micro-ring resonators, aiming to assess the potential for achieving Hz-level integrated laser linewidths at 780 nm. This work not only demonstrates the technical feasibility of Hz-level narrow-linewidth lasers but also lays the groundwork for future explorations in the field.

Prokoshin, Artem (ORCID:0009000699760238)↗

Machine Learning Assisted Safety Modeling and Analysis of Advanced Reactors

With the advances in computational power and numerical methods, analysts can now rely on first-principle simulations to predict ultra-fine details in a variety of applications. Advances in machine learning (ML) have produced algorithms that can now learn high-level abstractions via hierarchical models. This project aims to leverage advances in ML techniques and the available high-resolution simulation data to develop a novel modeling and simulation (M\&S) methodology for reactor safety analysis. While application-agnostic ML techniques are available, complex physics constraints need to be incorporated into ML techniques to build ML-based closures for computationally efficient predictive simulations. This project intends to develop a physics-guided data-driven multi-scale methodology for M\&S of advanced reactors. The project focuses on thermal fluid (T/F) phenomena, which play major roles in advanced reactor safety. Specifically, we propose a data-driven coarse-mesh turbulence model based on local flow features for the transient analysis of thermal mixing and stratification in a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR). The model has a coarse-mesh setup to ensure computational efficiency, while it is trained by fine-mesh computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data with Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence model to ensure accuracy. Three different neural networks are developed and tested for loss-of-flow transients in the hot pool of SFR, i.e. the densely connected convolutional neural network (DCNN), long-short-term-memory network based on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD-LSTM), and the DCNN informed by LSTM (DCNN-LSTM). The performances of these three neural networks are evaluated based on baseline models. The DCNN-LSTM model has been chosen for further hyperparameter optimization. Furthermore, based on a simplified two-dimensional case, uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the developed ML-based closure are investigated with three methods, i.e. Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensemble, and Bayesian neural network. The developed ML-based turbulent viscosity closure relation based on deep ensemble is then integrated into the system analysis module SAM and serves as a term in the conservation equations. Such a SAM-ML based procedure guarantees that the obtained results are consistent with the physical constraints of the thermal-fluid system. The SAM-ML simulation on the same loss-of-flow transient showed comparable accuracy with the CFD simulation but with a much coarser mesh setup. Last but not least, the ML-based closure improvement with the support of higher-fidelity data from large eddy simulation (LES) is discussed. As a first step towards this direction, a baseline LES simulation is performed to obtain comparable data with RANS results. Based on the early results, future investigation on further improving the ML-based closure is discussed. We believe the developed approach that combines scientific machine learning with nuclear system analysis code can benefit the advanced reactor community as more accurate safety analyses will better characterize reactor safety margins and reduce licensing efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Explicit block encodings of boundary value problems for many-body elliptic operators

Simulation of physical systems is one of the most promising use cases of future digital quantum computers. In this work we systematically analyze the quantum circuit complexities of block encoding the discretized elliptic operators that arise extensively in numerical simulations for partial differential equations, including high-dimensional instances for many-body simulations. When restricted to rectangular domains with separable boundary conditions, we provide explicit circuits to block encode the many-body Laplacian with separable periodic, Dirichlet, Neumann, and Robin boundary conditions, using standard discretization techniques from low-order finite difference methods. To obtain high-precision, we introduce a scheme based on periodic extensions to solve Dirichlet and Neumann boundary value problems using a high-order finite difference method, with only a constant increase in total circuit depth and subnormalization factor. We then present a scheme to implement block encodings of differential operators acting on more arbitrary domains, inspired by Cartesian immersed boundary methods. We then block encode the many-body convective operator, which describes interacting particles experiencing a force generated by a pair-wise potential given as an inverse power law of the interparticle distance. This work provides concrete recipes that are readily translated into quantum circuits, with depth logarithmic in the total Hilbert space dimension, that block encode operators arising broadly in applications involving the quantum simulation of quantum and classical many-body mechanics.

Kharazi, Tyler [University of California, Berkeley↗

Huge ensembles – Part 1: Design of ensemble weather forecasts using spherical Fourier neural operators

Abstract. Simulating low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich the sampling of internal variability. They may capture the long tails associated with climate hazards better than traditional ensemble sizes. Due to computational constraints, it is infeasible to generate huge ensembles (comprised of 1000–10 000 members) with traditional, physics-based numerical models. In this two-part paper, we replace traditional numerical simulations with machine learning (ML) to generate hindcasts of huge ensembles. In Part 1, we construct an ensemble weather forecasting system based on spherical Fourier neural operators (SFNOs), and we discuss important design decisions for constructing such an ensemble. The ensemble represents model uncertainty through perturbed-parameter techniques, and it represents initial condition uncertainty through bred vectors, which sample the fastest-growing modes of the forecast. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as a baseline, we develop an evaluation pipeline composed of mean, spectral, and extreme diagnostics. With large-scale, distributed SFNOs with 1.1 billion learned parameters, we achieve calibrated probabilistic forecasts. As the trajectories of the individual members diverge, the ML ensemble mean spectra degrade with lead time, consistent with physical expectations. However, the individual ensemble members' spectra stay constant with lead time. Therefore, these members simulate realistic weather states during the rollout, and the ML ensemble passes a crucial spectral test in the literature. The IFS and ML ensembles have similar extreme forecast indices, and we show that the ML extreme weather forecasts are reliable and discriminating. These diagnostics ensure that the ensemble can reliably simulate the time evolution of the atmosphere, including low-likelihood high-impact extremes. In Part 2, we generate a huge ensemble initialized each day in summer 2023, and we characterize the simulations of extremes.

Mahesh, Ankur↗