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QuantumNAT: quantum noise-aware training with noise injection, quantization and normalization

Parameterized Quantum Circuits (PQC) are promising towards quantum advantage on near-term quantum hardware. However, due to the large quantum noises (errors), the performance of PQC models has a severe degradation on real quantum devices. Take Quantum Neural Network (QNN) as an example, the accuracy gap between noise-free simulation and noisy results on IBMQ-Yorktown for MNIST-4 classification is over 60%. Existing noise mitigation methods are general ones without leveraging unique characteristics of PQC; on the other hand, existing PQC work does not consider noise effect. To this end, we present QuantumNAT, a PQC-specific framework to perform noise-aware optimizations in both training and inference stages to improve robustness. We experimentally observe that the effect of quantum noise to PQC measurement outcome is a linear map from noise-free outcome with a scaling and a shift factor. Motivated by that, we propose post-measurement normalization to mitigate the feature distribution differences between noise-free and noisy scenarios. Furthermore, to improve the robustness against noise, we propose noise injection to the training process by inserting quantum error gates to PQC according to realistic noise models of quantum hardware. Lastly, post-measurement quantization is introduced to quantize the measurement outcomes to discrete values, achieving the denoising effect. Extensive experiments on 8 classification tasks using 6 quantum devices demonstrate that QuantumNAT improves accuracy by up to 43%, and achieves over 94% 2-class, 80% 4-class, and 34% 10-class classification accuracy measured on real quantum computers. The code for construction and noise-aware training of PQC is available in the TorchQuantum library.

Wang, Hanrui↗

Learning Global Proliferation Expertise Evolution Using AI-Driven Analytics and Public Information

Detecting and anticipating global proliferation expertise and capability evolution from unstructured, noisy, and incomplete public data streams is a highly desired, but extremely challenging task. Here, in this article, we present our pioneering data-driven approach to support the non-proliferation mission to detect and explain the evolution of proliferation expertise and capability development globally from terabytes of publicly available information (PAI), focusing on our knowledge extraction pipeline and descriptive analytics. We first discuss how we fuse nine open-source data streams, including multilingual data, to convert 4 TB of unstructured data to structured knowledge and encode dynamically evolving proliferation expertise representations—content and context graphs. For this, we rely on natural language processing (NLP) and deep learning (DL) models to perform information extraction, topic modeling, and distributed text representation (aka embedding) learning. We then present interactive, usable, and explainable descriptive analytics to refine domain knowledge and present it in a human-understandable form. Finally, we introduce future work avenues that will leverage our dynamic knowledge representations and descriptive analytics to enable predictive and prescriptive inferences to achieve real-time domain understanding and contextual reasoning about global proliferation expertise and capability evolution.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Discovery of Probabilistic Dirichlet-to-Neumann Maps on Graphs

Dirichlet-to-Neumann maps enable the coupling of multiphysics simulations across computational subdomains by ensuring continuity of state variables and fluxes at artificial interfaces. We present a novel method for learning Dirichlet-to-Neumann maps on graphs using Gaussian processes, specifically for problems where the data obey a conservation law arising from an underlying partial differential equation. Our approach combines discrete exterior calculus and nonlinear optimal recovery to infer relationships between vertex and edge values. This framework yields data-driven predictions with uncertainty quantification across the entire graph, even when observations are limited to a subset of vertices and edges. By minimizing the reproducing kernel Hilbert space norm while penalizing kernel complexity through maximum likelihood estimation, our method ensures that the resulting surrogate strictly enforces conservation laws without overfitting. We demonstrate our method on two representative applications: subsurface flow in fracture networks and arterial blood flow. Finally, the results demonstrate that the method maintains high accuracy and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates even under severe data scarcity, highlighting its potential for scientific applications where limited data and reliable uncertainty quantification are critical.

Dirichlet-to-Neumann map↗

Classification of Small Negative Lightning Reports at the KSC-ER

The NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Air Force Eastern Range (ER) operate an extensive suite of lightning sensors because Florida experiences the highest area density of ground strikes in the United States, with area densities approaching 16 fl/sq km/yr when accumulated in 10x10 km (100 sq km) grids. The KSC-ER use data derived from two cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning detection networks, the "Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System" (CGLSS) and the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (TradeMark) (NLDN) plus a 3-dimensional lightning mapping system, the Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) system, to provide warnings for ground operations and to insure mission safety during space launches. For operational applications at the KSC-ER it is important to understand the performance of each lightning detection system in considerable detail. In this work we examine a specific subset of the CGLSS stroke reports that have low values of the negative inferred peak current, Ip, i.e. values between 0 and -7 kA, and were thought to produce a new ground contact (NGC). When possible, the NLDN and LDAR systems were used to validate the CGLSS classification and to determine how many of these reported strokes were first strokes, subsequent strokes in a pre-existing channel (PEC), or cloud pulses that the CGLSS misclassified as CG strokes. It is scientifically important to determine the smallest current that can reach the ground either in the form of a first stroke or by way of a subsequent stroke that creates a new ground contact. In Biagi et al (2007), 52 low amplitude, negative return strokes ([Ip] < or = 10 kA) were evaluated in southern Arizona, northern Texas, and southern Oklahoma. The authors found that 50-87% of the small NLDN reports could be classified as CG (either first or subsequent strokes) on the basis of video and waveform recordings. Low amplitude return strokes are interesting because they are usually difficult to detect, and they are thought to bypass conventional lightning protection that relies on a sufficient attractive radius to prevent "shielding failure" (Golde, 1977). They also have larger location errors compared to the larger current events. In this study, we use the estimated peak current provided by the CGLSS and the results of our classification to determine the minimum Ip for each category of CG stroke and its probability of occurrence. Where possible, these results are compared to the findings in the literature.

Ward, Jennifer G.↗

The Entry Descent and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI2) Suite for the Mars 2020 Mission

This presentation will discuss the current state of each of the main measurements systems for MEDLI2. The first system is a network of pressure transducers, the Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System (MEADS). Improving upon MEDLI, separate MEDLI2 pressure transducers span the measurement range suitable for both hypersonic and supersonic flows. The MEADS will also measure pressure on the backshell of the vehicle to better characterize the contribution of backshell pressure on the overall forces and moments on the entry probe. The second system is the thermal instrumentation, or Mars Instrumented Sensor Plugs. This system includes a network of high-temperature thermocouples embedded in the thermal protection system across the heatshield and backshell. The MISP also includes two types of sensors for directly measuring incident heatflux on the backshell of the vehicle. In addition, a radiometer is included on the backshell to measure radiative heating. The presentation will also cover the current state of the MEDLI2 hardware, expected environments that will be measured, and data analysis techniques being developed to infer vehicle entry performance from both the MISP and MEADS sensor systems.

White, Todd↗

Single-qubit multi-party transmission using universal symmetric quantum cloning

This study considers the hypothetical quantum network case where Alice wishes to transmit one qubit of information (specifically a pure quantum state) to M parties, where M is some large number. The remote receivers locally perform single-qubit quantum state tomography on the transmitted qubits in order to compute the quantum state within some error rate (dependent on the tomography technique and the number of transmitted qubits). We show that with the use of an intermediate optimal symmetric universal quantum cloning machine (between Alice and the remote receivers) as a repeater-type node in a hypothetical quantum network, Alice can send significantly fewer qubits compared to direct transmission of the message qubits to each of the M remote receivers. This is possible due to two properties of quantum cloning. The first is that single qubit quantum clones retain the same Bloch angle as the initial quantum state. This means that if the mixed state of the quantum clone can be computed to high enough accuracy, the original pure quantum state can be inferred by extrapolating that vector to the surface of the Bloch sphere. The second property is that the state overlap of approximate quantum clones, with respect to the original pure quantum state, quickly converges (specifically for 1 → M , the limit of the fidelity as M goes to infinity is $\frac{2}{3}$). This means that Alice can prepare a constant number of qubits (which are then passed through the quantum cloning machine) in order to achieve a desired error rate if M is large enough. Combined, these two properties mean that for a large M , Alice can prepare many orders of magnitude fewer qubits in order to achieve the same single qubit transmission accuracy compared to the naive direct qubit transmission approach.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Smart Pixels: towards on-sensor inference of charged particle track parameters and uncertainties

The combinatorics of track seeding has long been a computational bottleneck for triggering and offline computing in High Energy Physics (HEP), and remains so for the HL-LHC. Next-generation pixel sensors will be sufficiently fine-grained to determine angular information of the charged particle passing through from pixel-cluster properties. This detector technology immediately improves the situation for offline tracking, but any major improvements in physics reach are unrealized since they are dominated by lowest-level hardware trigger acceptance. We will demonstrate track angle and hit position prediction, including errors, using a mixture density network within a single layer of silicon as well as the progress towards and status of implementing the neural network in hardware on both FPGAs and ASICs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Smart Pixels: towards on-sensor inference of charged particle track parameters and uncertainties

The combinatorics of track seeding has long been a computational bottleneck for triggering and offline computing in High Energy Physics (HEP), and remains so for the HL-LHC. Next-generation pixel sensors will be sufficiently fine-grained to determine angular information of the charged particle passing through from pixel-cluster properties. This detector technology immediately improves the situation for offline tracking, but any major improvements in physics reach are unrealized since they are dominated by lowest-level hardware trigger acceptance. We will demonstrate track angle and hit position prediction, including errors, using a mixture density network within a single layer of silicon as well as the progress towards and status of implementing the neural network in hardware on both FPGAs and ASICs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Smartpixels: Towards on-sensor inference of charged particle track parameters and uncertainties

The combinatorics of track seeding has long been a computational bottleneck for triggering and offline computing in High Energy Physics (HEP), and remains so for the HL-LHC. Next-generation pixel sensors will be sufficiently fine-grained to determine angular information of the charged particle passing through from pixel-cluster properties. This detector technology immediately improves the situation for offline tracking, but any major improvements in physics reach are unrealized since they are dominated by lowest-level hardware trigger acceptance. We will demonstrate track angle and hit position prediction, including errors, using a mixture density network within a single layer of silicon as well as the progress towards and status of implementing the neural network in hardware on both FPGAs and ASICs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Measuring Fault Zone and Host Rock Hydraulic Properties Using Tidal Responses

Pore pressure diffusion along faults influences induced seismicity and rupture mechanics. In situ hydraulic diffusivity measurements along faults are rare and generally lower than inferred from seismicity migration. Here we use the tidal response of deep geothermal boreholes to measure fault diffusivity and permeability. Initial interpretations of the observation with a homogeneous confined aquifer model result in diffusivities of 10 -3 –10 -1 m 2 /s. However, this model mixes signals from both the conduit and the host rock. We develop a model for tidal response with a fault passing through the aquifer based on the fault-guided fracture network and solve for hydraulic properties in both the fault and the host rock. The resulting fault permeability is 2 × 10 -14 –7 × 10 -14 m 2 (90% confidence interval[CI]) and fault diffusivity is 0.08–0.33 m 2 /s (90% CI), which is 2 orders of magnitude higher than the host rock diffusivity in some wells, thus highlighting the role of faults as fluid conduits.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Early Alarm: Robust Event Analysis for Power Systems using 1-D Fully Convolutional Network

This work presents a novel deep learning model for early, accurate, and robust detection, recognition, and temporal localization of multi-type events in large-scale power systems. The proposed method develops a unified 1-D fully convolutional network (FCN) model that takes time series of raw frequency signals measured from a power system as input, extracts distinguishing features, and predicts at every temporal point in the time series if an event is happening and what the type of the event is. Compared to existing methods, the proposed model eliminates the necessity for hand-crafted feature extraction or complicated data pre-processing, can flexibly handle input signals of arbitrary length, and precisely infer the event occurrence time. Most importantly, the model is intentionally trained with incomplete patterns, such that it is more robust to partial features of an event which is common in real-world online recognition, resulting in early alarm for power system failures. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves superior performance to the state-of-the-art, and also shows strong robustness to noise and system oscillations.

Li, Chengcheng↗

Structure identification in fuzzy inference using reinforcement learning

In our previous work on the GARIC architecture, we have shown that the system can start with surface structure of the knowledge base (i.e., the linguistic expression of the rules) and learn the deep structure (i.e., the fuzzy membership functions of the labels used in the rules) by using reinforcement learning. Assuming the surface structure, GARIC refines the fuzzy membership functions used in the consequents of the rules using a gradient descent procedure. This hybrid fuzzy logic and reinforcement learning approach can learn to balance a cart-pole system and to backup a truck to its docking location after a few trials. In this paper, we discuss how to do structure identification using reinforcement learning in fuzzy inference systems. This involves identifying both surface as well as deep structure of the knowledge base. The term set of fuzzy linguistic labels used in describing the values of each control variable must be derived. In this process, splitting a label refers to creating new labels which are more granular than the original label and merging two labels creates a more general label. Splitting and merging of labels directly transform the structure of the action selection network used in GARIC by increasing or decreasing the number of hidden layer nodes.

Berenji, Hamid R.↗

OTD Observations of Continental US Ground and Cloud Flashes

Lightning optical flash parameters (e.g., radiance, area, duration, number of optical groups, and number of optical events) derived from almost five years of Optical Transient Detector (OTD) data are analyzed. Hundreds of thousands of OTD flashes occurring over the continental US are categorized according to flash type (ground or cloud flash) using US National Lightning Detection Network TM (NLDN) data. The statistics of the optical characteristics of the ground and cloud flashes are inter-compared on an overall basis, and as a function of ground flash polarity. A standard two-distribution hypothesis test is used to inter-compare the population means of a given lightning parameter for the two flash types. Given the differences in the statistics of the optical characteristics, it is suggested that statistical analyses (e.g., Bayesian Inference) of the space-based optical measurements might make it possible to successfully discriminate ground and cloud flashes a reasonable percentage of the time.

Koshak, William↗

Deriving Global OH Abundance and Atmospheric Lifetimes for Long-Lived Gases: A Search for CH3CCl3 Alternatives

An accurate estimate of global hydroxyl radical (OH) abundance is important for projections of air quality, climate, and stratospheric ozone recovery. As the atmospheric mixing ratios of methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3) (MCF), the commonly used OH reference gas, approaches zero, it is important to find alternative approaches to infer atmospheric OH abundance and variability. The lack of global bottom-up emission inventories is the primary obstacle in choosing a MCF alternative. We illustrate that global emissions of long-lived trace gases can be inferred from their observed mixing ratio differences between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), given realistic estimates of their NH-SH exchange time, the emission partitioning between the two hemispheres, and the NH versus SH OH abundance ratio. Using the observed long-term trend and emissions derived from the measured hemispheric gradient, the combination of HFC-32 (CH2F2), HFC-134a (CH2FCF3, HFC-152a (CH3CHF2), and HCFC-22 (CHClF2), instead of a single gas, will be useful as a MCF alternative to infer global and hemispheric OH abundance and trace gas lifetimes. The primary assumption on which this multispecies approach relies is that the OH lifetimes can be estimated by scaling the thermal reaction rates of a reference gas at 272 K on global and hemispheric scales. Thus, the derived hemispheric and global OH estimates are forced to reconcile the observed trends and gradient for all four compounds simultaneously. However, currently, observations of these gases from the surface networks do not provide more accurate OH abundance estimate than that from MCF.

Lifetime↗

Monitoring leaf phenology in moist tropical forests by applying a superpixel-based deep learning method to time-series images of tree canopies

Tropical leaf phenology-particularly its variability at the tree-crown scale-dominates the seasonality of carbon and water fluxes. However, given enormous species diversity, accurate means of monitoring leaf phenology in tropical forests is still lacking. Time series of the Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) metric derived from tower-based red-green-blue (RGB) phenocams have been widely used to monitor leaf phenology in temperate forests, but its application in the tropics remains problematic. To improve monitoring of tropical phenology, we explored the use of a deep learning model (i.e. superpixel-based Residual Networks 50, SP-ResNet50) to automatically differentiate leaves from non-leaves in phenocam images and to derive leaf fraction at the tree-crown scale. To evaluate our model, we used a year of data from six phenocams in two contrasting forests in Panama. Here, we first built a comprehensive library of leaf and non-leaf pixels across various acquisition times, exposure conditions and specific phenocams. We then divided this library into training and testing components. We evaluated the model at three levels: 1) superpixel level with a testing set, 2) crown level by comparing the model-derived leaf fractions with those derived using image-specific supervised classification, and 3) temporally using all daily images to assess the diurnal stability of the model-derived leaf fraction. Finally, we compared the model-derived leaf fraction phenology with leaf phenology derived from GCC. Our results show that: 1) the SP-ResNet50 model accurately differentiates leaves from non-leaves (overall accuracy of 93%) and is robust across all three levels of evaluations; 2) the model accurately quantifies leaf fraction phenology across tree-crowns and forest ecosystems; and 3) the combined use of leaf fraction and GCC helps infer the timing of leaf emergence, maturation and senescence, critical information for modeling photosynthetic seasonality of tropical forests. Collectively, this study offers an improved means for automated tropical phenology monitoring using phenocams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A deep learning approach to real-time HIV outbreak detection using genetic data

Pathogen genomic sequence data are increasingly made available for epidemiological monitoring. A main interest is to identify and assess the potential of infectious disease outbreaks. While popular methods to analyze sequence data often involve phylogenetic tree inference, they are vulnerable to errors from recombination and impose a high computational cost, making it difficult to obtain real-time results when the number of sequences is in or above the thousands. Here, we propose an alternative strategy to outbreak detection using genomic data based on deep learning methods developed for image classification. The key idea is to use a pairwise genetic distance matrix calculated from viral sequences as an image, and develop convolutional neutral network (CNN) models to classify areas of the images that show signatures of active outbreak, leading to identification of subsets of sequences taken from an active outbreak. We showed that our method is efficient in finding HIV-1 outbreaks with R0 ≥ 2.5, and overall a specificity exceeding 98% and sensitivity better than 92%. We validated our approach using data from HIV-1 CRF01 in Europe, containing both endemic sequences and a well-known dual outbreak in intravenous drug users. Our model accurately identified known outbreak sequences in the background of slower spreading HIV. Importantly, we detected both outbreaks early on, before they were over, implying that had this method been applied in real-time as data became available, one would have been able to intervene and possibly prevent the extent of these outbreaks. This approach is scalable to processing hundreds of thousands of sequences, making it useful for current and future real-time epidemiological investigations, including public health monitoring using large databases and especially for rapid outbreak identification.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Forward variable selection enables fast and accurate dynamic system identification with Karhunen-Loève decomposed Gaussian processes

A promising approach for scalable Gaussian processes (GPs) is the Karhunen-Loève (KL) decomposition, in which the GP kernel is represented by a set of basis functions which are the eigenfunctions of the kernel operator. Such decomposed kernels have the potential to be very fast, and do not depend on the selection of a reduced set of inducing points. However KL decompositions lead to high dimensionality, and variable selection thus becomes paramount. This paper reports a new method of forward variable selection, enabled by the ordered nature of the basis functions in the KL expansion of the Bayesian Smoothing Spline ANOVA kernel (BSS-ANOVA), coupled with fast Gibbs sampling in a fully Bayesian approach. It quickly and effectively limits the number of terms, yielding a method with competitive accuracies, training and inference times for tabular datasets of low feature set dimensionality. Theoretical computational complexities are O ( N P 2 ) in training and O ( P ) per point in inference, where N is the number of instances and P the number of expansion terms. The inference speed and accuracy makes the method especially useful for dynamic systems identification, by modeling the dynamics in the tangent space as a static problem, then integrating the learned dynamics using a high-order scheme. The methods are demonstrated on two dynamic datasets: a ‘Susceptible, Infected, Recovered’ (SIR) toy problem, along with the experimental ‘Cascaded Tanks’ benchmark dataset. Comparisons on the static prediction of time derivatives are made with a random forest (RF), a residual neural network (ResNet), and the Orthogonal Additive Kernel (OAK) inducing points scalable GP, while for the timeseries prediction comparisons are made with LSTM and GRU recurrent neural networks (RNNs) along with the SINDy package.

Hayes, Kyle↗

Application of Satellite Gravimetry for Water Resource Vulnerability Assessment

The force of Earth's gravity field varies in proportion to the amount of mass near the surface. Spatial and temporal variations in the gravity field can be measured via their effects on the orbits of satellites. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) is the first satellite mission dedicated to monitoring temporal variations in the gravity field. The monthly gravity anomaly maps that have been delivered by GRACE since 2002 are being used to infer changes in terrestrial water storage (the sum of groundwater, soil moisture, surface waters, and snow and ice), which are the primary source of gravity variability on monthly to decadal timescales after atmospheric and oceanic circulation effects have been removed. Other remote sensing techniques are unable to detect water below the first few centimeters of the land surface. Conventional ground based techniques can be used to monitor terrestrial water storage, but groundwater, soil moisture, and snow observation networks are sparse in most of the world, and the countries that do collect such data rarely are willing to share them. Thus GRACE is unique in its ability to provide global data on variations in the availability of fresh water, which is both vital to life on land and vulnerable to climate variability and mismanagement. This chapter describes the unique and challenging aspects of GRACE terrestrial water storage data, examples of how the data have been used for research and applications related to fresh water vulnerability and change, and prospects for continued contributions of satellite gravimetry to water resources science and policy.

Rodell, Matthew↗