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At least 901 records · Page 50

Fracture detection and imaging through relative seismic velocity changes using distributed acoustic sensing and ambient seismic noise

Fracture systems are important pathways for fluid and solute transport and exert a critical influence on the hydraulic properties of aquifers and reservoirs. Therefore, detailed knowledge of fracture locations, connections, and evolution is crucial for both groundwater and energy applications (e.g., enhanced geothermal, oil and gas recovery, carbon sequestration, and wastewater injection). The innovative combination of distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) and ambient seismic noise techniques has the potential to detect and characterize fracture systems at high-spatial and temporal resolution without an active source. To test this, we conducted a multiphysics field experiment at Blue Canyon Dome, New Mexico. A novel energetic material developed by Sandia National Laboratories was used to generate fractures in two separate stimulations. Ambient noise was recorded before and after each stimulation using fiber-optic cables installed in the outer annulus of four boreholes surrounding the stimulation hole at a radius of 1.2 m. The Python package MSNoise was used to compute crosscorrelations and measure changes in velocity between each time period relative to the initial (prestimulation) time period. The majority of channel pairs showed a velocity reduction (average –3% relative velocity change) following both stimulations. We used a 3D Bayesian tomography approach to resolve spatial variations by utilizing differences between channel pairs. Results showed that the greatest velocity reduction was concentrated near the center of the test area and suggested the presence of a near-vertical fracture, oriented northeast to southwest for depths >19 m below ground surface and extending slightly to the southwest corner. Finally, these results were generally consistent with crosshole seismic tomography time-lapse images. DAS technology provides valuable sensing capability and — when used with a passive seismic approach — shows great promise for monitoring and characterization of fractured-rock systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Comparing variability in diagnosis of upper respiratory tract infections in patients using syndromic, next generation sequencing, and PCR-based methods

Early and accurate diagnosis of respiratory pathogens and associated outbreaks can allow for the control of spread, epidemiological modeling, targeted treatment, and decision making–as is evident with the current COVID-19 pandemic. Many respiratory infections share common symptoms, making them difficult to diagnose using only syndromic presentation. Yet, with delays in getting reference laboratory tests and limited availability and poor sensitivity of point-of-care tests, syndromic diagnosis is the most-relied upon method in clinical practice today. Here, we examine the variability in diagnostic identification of respiratory infections during the annual infection cycle in northern New Mexico, by comparing syndromic diagnostics with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and sequencing-based methods, with the goal of assessing gaps in our current ability to identify respiratory pathogens. Of 97 individuals that presented with symptoms of respiratory infection, only 23 were positive for at least one RNA virus, as confirmed by sequencing. Whereas influenza virus (n = 7) was expected during this infection cycle, we also observed coronavirus (n = 7), respiratory syncytial virus (n = 8), parainfluenza virus (n = 4), and human metapneumovirus (n = 1) in individuals with respiratory infection symptoms. Four patients were coinfected with two viruses. In 21 individuals that tested positive using PCR, RNA sequencing completely matched in only 12 (57%) of these individuals. Few individuals (37.1%) were diagnosed to have an upper respiratory tract infection or viral syndrome by syndromic diagnostics, and the type of virus could only be distinguished in one patient. Thus, current syndromic diagnostic approaches fail to accurately identify respiratory pathogens associated with infection and are not suited to capture emerging threats in an accurate fashion. We conclude there is a critical and urgent need for layered agnostic diagnostics to track known and unknown pathogens at the point of care to control future outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures

Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy’s warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus). Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific information that can be used by managers to identify areas for habitat conservation and/or restoration along the Rio Grande in New Mexico. We created models of suitable habitat for each species based on collection and survey samples and climate, biophysical, and vegetation data. We projected habitat suitability under future climates by applying these models to conditions generated from three climate models for 2030, 2060 and 2090. By comparing current and future distributions, we identified how habitats are likely to change as a result of changing climate and the consequences of those changes for these bird species. We also examined whether land ownership of high value sites shifts under changing climate conditions. Habitat suitability models performed well. Biophysical characteristics were more important that climate conditions for predicting habitat suitability with distance to water being the single most important predictor. Climate, though less important, was still influential and led to declines of suitable habitat of more than 60% by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model that can be used to inform the management of species at intermediate scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A scalable variational method for estimating the latent infection-rate field of an outbreak

In this paper, we explore whether the infection-rate of a disease can serve as a robust monitoring variable in epidemiological surveillance algorithms. The infection-rate is dependent on population mixing patterns that do not vary erratically day-to-day; in contrast, daily case-counts used in contemporary surveillance algorithms are corrupted by reporting errors. The technical challenge lies in estimating the latent infection-rate from case-counts. Here we devise a Bayesian method to estimate the infection-rate across multiple adjoining areal units, and then use it, via an anomaly detector, to discern a change in epidemiological dynamics. We extend an existing model for estimating the infection-rate in an areal unit by incorporating a Markov random field model, so that we may estimate infection-rates across multiple areal units, while preserving spatial correlations observed in the epidemiological dynamics. To carry out the high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problem, we develop an implementation of mean-field variational inference specific to the infection model and integrate it with the random field model to incorporate correlations across counties. The method is tested on estimating the COVID-19 infection-rates across all 33 counties in New Mexico using data from the summer of 2020, and then employing them to detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave. We perform the detection using a temporal algorithm that is applied county-by-county. We also show how the infection-rate field can be used to cluster counties with similar epidemiological dynamics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Towards Automated/Semiautomated Extraction of Faults from Lidar Data

The Pajarito fault system is a complex zone of deformation and a seismically active region nestled within the Rio Grande rift in north-central New Mexico. Numerous laterally discontinuous faults and associated folds and fractures interact in a manner that has important implications for seismic hazards and risk mitigation. Previous efforts have established a foundation for the location of lineaments and structures in the Pajarito fault system; however, ensuring the completeness of the current lineament mapping is required for identifying areas for field validation, evaluating the potential for future seismic activity, and better understanding fault interaction. Assistance with this fault-mapping task via automated or semiautomated techniques as applied to lidar data over a large area of interest is highly desirable. A proof-of-concept processing flow which transforms lidar point-cloud data into a raster of surficial fault candidates is described and illustrated herein. We report these initial results hold great promise toward achieving our ultimate goal.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

SUMO Leaf Water Potential

The Los Alamos Survival–Mortality experiment (SUMO) is located on Frijoles Mesa near Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA, at an elevation of 2150 m. This was a tree manipulation study that investigated the relative impacts of drought and warming on plant function and reveals how trees adapt to drought and heat in semi-arid regions. The study factored the role of tree hydraulic acclimation to both precipitation and temperature and separated their effects.The experiment is located in a pinon-juniper woodland near the ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forest ecotone. Monthly pre-dawn and midday shoot water potentials for each target tree. See SUMO Target Tree Information data package (doi:10.15485/1440544) for additional information. Data released by Los Alamos National Lab for public use under LA-UR-18-23656.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SUMO Target Tree Info

Information regarding species, plot, treatment, chamber, tree height, and canopy diameter associated with each Tree_ID for use with all other raw data files. The Los Alamos Survival-Mortality experiment (SUMO) is located on Frijoles Mesa near Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA, at an elevation of 2150 m. The experiment is located in a pinon-juniper woodland near the ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forest ecotone. The tree community at SUMO is dominated by pinon pine (Pinus edulis Engelm.) and one-seed juniper (Juniperus monosperma (Engelm.) Sarg.) with Gambel oak (Quercus gambelli Nutt.), and the occasional ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex C.Lawson). Soils are Hackroy clay loam and range in depth from 40 to 80 cm above a parent material of volcanic tuff. Data released by Los Alamos National Lab for public use under LA-UR-18-23656.Update 4/7/2022: added tree height and canopy diameter

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SUMO Maximum Assimilation

The Los Alamos Survival–Mortality experiment (SUMO) is located on Frijoles Mesa near Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA, at an elevation of 2150 m. This was a tree manipulation study that investigated the relative impacts of drought and warming on plant function and reveals how trees adapt to drought and heat in semi-arid regions. The study factored the role of tree hydraulic acclimation to both precipitation and temperature and separated their effects.The experiment is located in a pinon-juniper woodland near the ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forest ecotone. Maximum assimilation rate measured monthly for each target tree. See SUMO Target Tree Information data package (doi:10.15485/1440544) for additional information. Data released by Los Alamos National Lab for public use under LA-UR-18-23656.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SUMO Chamber Conditions

The Los Alamos Survival–Mortality experiment (SUMO) is located on Frijoles Mesa near Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA, at an elevation of 2150 m. This was a tree manipulation study that investigated the relative impacts of drought and warming on plant function and reveals how trees adapt to drought and heat in semi-arid regions. The study factored the role of tree hydraulic acclimation to both precipitation and temperature and separated their effects.The experiment is located in a pinon-juniper woodland near the ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forest ecotone. Chamber conditions (temperature, relative humidity, vapor pressure deficit) for SUMO Open Top Chambers (OTCs) used to control air temperatures surrounding heated and control chamber trees. See SUMO Target Tree Information data package (doi:10.15485/1440544) for additional information. Data released by Los Alamos National Lab for public use under LA-UR-18-23656.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SUMO Micrometeorology

The Los Alamos Survival–Mortality experiment (SUMO) is located on Frijoles Mesa near Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA, at an elevation of 2150 m. This was a tree manipulation study that investigated the relative impacts of drought and warming on plant function and reveals how trees adapt to drought and heat in semi-arid regions. The study factored the role of tree hydraulic acclimation to both precipitation and temperature and separated their effects.The experiment is located in a pinon-juniper woodland near the ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forest ecotone. Daily average ambient micrometeorological conditions at the SUMO site. See SUMO Target Tree Information data package (doi:10.15485/1440544) for additional information. Data released by Los Alamos National Lab for public use under LA-UR-18-23656.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SUMO Nitrogen Labeling Experiment and Soil Biogeochemistry

The Los Alamos Survival–Mortality experiment (SUMO) is located on Frijoles Mesa near Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA, at an elevation of 2150 m. This was a tree manipulation study that investigated the relative impacts of drought and warming on plant function and reveals how trees adapt to drought and heat in semi-arid regions. The study factored the role of tree hydraulic acclimation to both precipitation and temperature and separated their effects.The experiment is located in a pinon-juniper woodland near the ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forest ecotone. In a semi-arid woodland, adult trees (piñon and juniper) were exposed to chronic warming (+4 °C) and precipitation reduction (-45 %). After five years of continuous treatment exposure, soil and plant nitrogen isotopic composition were measured to assess plant nitrogen allocation. See SUMO Target Tree Information data package (doi:10.15485/1440544) for additional information. Data released by Los Alamos National Lab for public use under LA-UR-18-23656.

15N isotopic composition↗

AmeriFlux US-Wjs Willard Juniper Savannah

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Wjs Willard Juniper Savannah. Site Description - The Juniper Savanna site is located in the Southwestern Tablelands in central New Mexico on a private ranch. Its vegetation is composed of Juniperus monosperma and intermittently grazed C4 perennial grasses of which the dominant species is Bouteloua gracilis.

Litvak, Marcy↗

AmeriFlux US-Vcm Valles Caldera Mixed Conifer

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Vcm Valles Caldera Mixed Conifer. Site Description - The Valles Caldera Mixed Conifer site is located in the 1200 km2 Jemez River basin in north-central New Mexico. Common to elevations ranging from 3040 to 2740 m in the region, the mixed conifer stand, within the entirety of the tower footprint in all directions, provides an excellent setting for studying the seasonal interaction between snow and vegetation. In late May 2013, this site experienced a stand-replacing wildfire. It was a very hot fire that killed every single tree, and burned off a lot of surface organic matter. We have a big gap in fluxes from May 2013- Jan 2014. We were not even allowed in to the site until Oct 2013, and it took us 2-3 months to clean up the debris, remove burned infrastructure, have the tower structure assessed, and resinstrument the site.

Litvak, Marcy↗

AmeriFlux US-Vcp Valles Caldera Ponderosa Pine

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Vcp Valles Caldera Ponderosa Pine. Site Description - The Valles Caldera Ponderosa Pine site is located in the 1200km2 Jemez River basin of the Jemez Mountains in north-central New Mexico at the southern margin of the Rocky Mountain ecoregion. The Ponderosa Pine forest is the warmest and lowest (below 2700m) zone of the forests in the Valles Caldera National Preserve. Its vegetation is composed of a Ponderosa Pine (Pinus Ponderosa) overstory and a Gambel Oak (Quercus gambelii) understory.

Litvak, Marcy↗

AmeriFlux US-Mpj Mountainair Pinyon-Juniper Woodland

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Mpj Mountainair Pinyon-Juniper Woodland. Site Description - This site is located in central New Mexico on an extensive mesa approximately 25 km south of Mountainair, NM, owned by the Heritage Land Conservancy. The dominant tree species, Pinus edulis and Juniperus monosperma make up >95% of the area’s tree cover. Total tree is cover is ~60%. The dominant herbaceous plant at the site is the C4 perennial grass Bouteloua gracilis. In July 2013, we observed pinon mortality at the site, which continued through 2015. We have used a variety of techniques to document the rate of mortality. The mortality was triggered by a combination of drought (2011-2013) and Pinon ips bark beetle outbreak. Juniper was not affected.

Litvak, Marcy↗

AmeriFlux US-Seg Sevilleta grassland

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Seg Sevilleta grassland. Site Description - The Sevilleta Desert Grassland site is located within the McKenzie Flats area of the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge (NWR), central New Mexico. Historically, this area has been used for livestock grazing; however, the McKenzie Flats have not been grazed since 1973 and the effects of this previous grazing are considered negligible for the purposes of this study. As the name suggests, McKenzie Flats is an extensive (~130 km2), nearly flat, mixed-species desert grassland bounded on the east by Los Pinos Mountains and on the west by the Rio Grande. This site experienced a severe burn in August 2009.

Litvak, Marcy↗

AmeriFlux US-Jo2 Jornada Experimental Range Mixed Shrubland

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Jo2 Jornada Experimental Range Mixed Shrubland. Site Description - The study area is in a mixed shrub-dominated portion of the San Andres Mountain piedmont, along the southeastern boundary of the Jornada Experimental Range (JER) in southern New Mexico, USA. The JER was established in 1912 as a response of scientis and landowner to the shrub enchroachment and loss of grasses due to extended grazing during the late 1800s, fire and climate change. JER has been a NSF LTER site since 1981.The study site is a small watershed (4.67 ha) in an alluvial slope or bajada, with three major areas (north-, south- and west-facing hillslopes) with low to moderate slopes (∼0–6°) with a mean slope of 2.6°, while the channel banks and propagating channel heads have higher slopes (∼15–25°). The site is charactetized by a high bare soil coverage (∼66%), ∼28% of mixed shrubs coverage and a low coverage of grass (∼4%) and weeds (∼2%).

Vivoni, Enrique R.↗